Metaculus @metaculus Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

On January 24th, the number one predictor on Metaculus, an anonymous user who goes by the handle traviswfisher, revised down his prediction on the question “will the world population increase every year for the next decade?”. (1/4)

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Today, we're excited to launch the Forecasting Our World In Data tournament! This collaborative project with @OurWorldInData will probe the long-term future of technological advancement, global development, and social progress. Begin forecasting:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

He noted: “the Wuhan Coronavirus is looking like a pandemic event that could be serious enough to threaten this outcome”. On that day, a total of just 1,317 cases had been confirmed. (2/4)

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

On February 1st, when there were 14,553 confirmed cases, mostly in Wuhan, China. Still, traviswfisher noted that “Altogether a pandemic result seems inevitable. When several major outbreaks are going no plausible travel bans will be able to reverse the global spread.” (3/4)

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Will Ukrainian cities be under Russian control on June 1? The Metaculus community’s predictions and updates over the last 24 hours.

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

We’re thrilled to launch Forecasting AI Progress, the largest-ever tournament focused on predicting advances in AI. Become a smarter, farther-seeing person while contributing to AI research and vying for cash prizes. Sign up at Begins Dec 14 #ForecastingAI

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

When @mattyglesias made a series of quantified predictions about 2021 on his Substack, Slow Boring, we were very pleased. More pleased still, now that he's given us the go-ahead to draw up questions based on his forecasts so you can predict alongside him:

Matthew Yglesias Predicts 2021

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

All of traviswfisher's comments are dated and available here:

Metaculus

Mapping the future.

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

It would take the WHO till the 11th of March (39 days after February 1st) to designate 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. (4/4)

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Our new report examines indicators of human progress developed by @OurWorldInData , covering time horizons from 1 to 100 years, with predictions & analysis by Metaculus Pro Forecasters & participants in the “Forecasting Our World in Data” tournament: 1/7

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Which psychology studies will replicate? @ClearerThinkng 's Transparent Replications initiative runs replications of newly-published studies randomly selected from prestigious journals. Forecast the results and contribute to reproducibility in science:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

We're very excited to announce Forecasting Causes: a framework that Metaculus has created to more effectively partner with and serve altruistic movements and the nonprofits that work within them. (1/12)

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Metaculus

@metaculus

7 years

As if we weren't worried about enough: Attack using genetically eng. virus by 2020? #pandemic #bioweapon #Genetics

Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?

The aggregate of 80 Metaculus community forecasters was 32% on Jul 28, 2024.

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

Not every article needs to include publicly accountable forecasting—but more of them should. Today we launch the Metaculus Journal, publishing weekly deep dives on science, tech, policy, and politics with analysis supported by testable predictions.

Metaculus Journal

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Coming soon to a forecast near you 📈

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

We’re thrilled to be partnering with @TheEconomist to develop 2021 forecasts focused on the pandemic, the economy, world news, and culture: The top 5 forecasters on these 25 questions get a 1-year subscription to The Economist. Let's get predicting!

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Red Lines in Ukraine, a new forecasting collaboration with nuclear security expert @PeterScoblic , provides an early warning indicator of potential Russian nuclear use. (1/6)

Red Lines in Ukraine

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Introducing decimal forecasting. Predict your true beliefs, from the vanishingly small to the near certain—and every tenth of a percent in between.

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

We strongly support @GaryMarcus ’s willingness to go beyond merely disagreeing with @elonmusk on artificial general intelligence timelines to actually proposing bets on concrete milestones. Forecast along with him on his public figure prediction page here:

Gary Marcus

www.metaculus.com

Gary Marcus

@GaryMarcus

2 years

Open letter to @geoffreyhinton :

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Metaculus

@metaculus

9 months

Today we launched multiple MAJOR updates: ① New leaderboards for accuracy, insight & more ② 🥇🥈🥉 to recognize excellence ③ Clearer scoring that better rewards skill See the new leaderboards & medals: Learn more here: 1/9

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Top forecasters estimate the risk of nuclear war in 2022 to be comparable to the annual risk during the Cold War, with the most likely escalation scenarios resulting from an accident or in response to a false alarm. Read our full nuclear risk report:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

We brought together a team of top generalist forecasters and infectious disease experts with experience in the development/deployment of vaccines and therapeutics. We’re excited to share their forecasts: Full report— (1/8)

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

We are excited to launch the Biosecurity Forecasting Tournament in partnership with @asaferfuture and @IFP . This first-of-its-kind initiative will deliver forecasts on global catastrophic biological risks to help inform policymakers’ decision making:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Ajeya Cotra (Senior Research Analyst at @open_phil ) updated her predicted timelines for transformative AI that would bring us into a new, qualitatively different future. We've created a Public Figure prediction page where you can forecast alongside her:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Will this be the worst flu season in 5 years? Earth’s hemispheres have opposite respiratory viral seasons, and Australia's severe season may be a signal. We've launched FluSight Challenge 2022/23 to deliver forecasts supporting public health preparedness:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 months

Economist @bryan_caplan has won all his public bets—a nearly two-decade winning streak. Now you can predict the outcomes of his bets on AI-supercharged growth, climate change, civil wars, and more in our new Bryan Caplan Collection. Get started:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

Here's Metaculus analyst Juan Cambeiro on the alarming spread of the Omicron variant, the current state of our knowledge, and his forecasts on what happens next:

Omicron: What We Know, What To Expect, & What To Do

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

1 year

We’ve launched our new home page! Learn how Metaculus works and partner with us to gain insight into your most complex challenges:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

9 months

Today we’re excited to launch Community Insights: GPT-4 powered distillations of forecasters' analyses and arguments. Understand what drives the Community Prediction and the key factors that will determine a question's outcome. Learn more:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

900+ forecasters weigh in on whether Russia will invade Ukraine. The Metaculus Prediction, a weighted aggregate, currently gives an invasion a 66% LIKELIHOOD of happening this year. Read a summary of the signals we believe may affect the final outcome:

900+ Forecasters on Whether Russia Will Invade Ukraine

by Gaia Dempsey, CEO at Metaculus

metaculus.medium.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 months

Announcing @degerturann as Metaculus's new CEO! Deger previously led @AIObjectives and is deeply committed to Metaculus's mission to build the epistemic infrastructure of tomorrow. Read more:

Announcing Deger Turan as the new CEO of Metaculus

I’m thrilled to announce that I’ve hired Deger Turan as Metaculus’s new CEO, and that I’m stepping into a new role as Special Advisor…

metaculus.medium.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

5 months

Scott Alexander shares the results of his 2023 forecasting contest:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

1 year

Will a Democrat win in 2024 if the US defaults? How will Bing’s market share affect Alphabet’s valuation? Will a geoengineering act reduce emissions? We've launched Conditional Pairs so forecasters can explore how events affect outcomes probabilistically:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

@glaebhoerl Yes, accuracy. The user is number one on our leaderboard.

Metaculus

Mapping the future.

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

Metaculus and the Virginia Department of Health ( @VDHgov ) are launching the Keep Virginia Safe Tournament today to support the development of the next phase of state COVID-19 policy. 1/5

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

Tomorrow we launch a MAJOR Metaculus site redesign, bringing with it: · Mobile-friendliness · Modernized UI · Enhanced timelines · Improved search · Greater scalability · Rich, informative colors —and more! Here's @tamaybes with the video grand tour:

A Walkthrough Of The Metaculus Site Redesign

The Metaculus redesign offers users a host of enhancements, major and minor. Follow along with Metaculus team member Tamay Besiroglu as he provides a tour.Un...

www.youtube.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

Happy Earth Day! 🌍 We’re thrilled to launch the Alt-Protein Tournament w/ @GoodFoodInst to develop forecasts that help researchers, businesses, policymakers and those-who-eat-food make more informed decisions across the #alternativeprotein landscape (1/7)

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

Today the Nuclear Risk Tournament, an initiative with our partner @RethinkPriors , officially opens. We welcome participation from all forecasters on this critically important topic, and we thank the community for your contributions to this project.

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

@paulg We've recorded your prediction here. Let's see how it turns out.

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

@zackmdavis We're operating under the assumption that it's a pseudonym, though it might not be!

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

Forecast alongside @tomchivers in his new piece for the Metaculus Journal, focusing on solar power, decreasing costs, the challenge of intermittent supply, and the future of zero-carbon energy:

Solar Power: Current Challenges, Encouraging Progress

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

We’re thrilled to welcome @BeckRyooan as our Forecasting Program Coordinator! Ryan will support partner initiatives, contribute to community management, and run regular forecasting meetups. Aside from being a great forecaster, did you know he's a sci-fi novelist? Welcome, Ryan!

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

@robinhanson Our community estimates the global IFR to be 0.94% (50% confidence interval 0.43% to 1.7%). See

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Metaculus: mapping the future.

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

1 year

News breaks. Time marches on. Some of your forecasts stay current and others grow stale. Now you can more easily find predictions that need updating and reaffirm those you stand by—right from your feed. Learn how:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

The AI Progress Essay Contest is open! Engage with the wealth of AI forecasts on Metaculus to construct an accurate picture of the timeline and impact of transformative AI. $6,500 and the Dreyfus Prize will go to the most insightful pieces:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

🚨 We’re excited to share we’ve been hard at work on a major redesign that will make Metaculus mobile-friendly, improve usability, and enable new features and content. We’d love to hear your feedback!

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Metaculus

@metaculus

1 year

Which forecasts shifted this week? Where do you disagree with other forecasters? Do you need to update your AI predictions? Find the questions most relevant to you using our new filter & sort tools:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

The news from the crypto community this week is more than concerning. We’ve just published a set of questions to provide greater clarity on the counterparty risks facing small depositors, as well as the larger implications for the crypto ecosystem. 1/7

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Metaculus has aggregated over 1 million predictions! To celebrate this milestone, you’re invited to join us for a first-of-its-kind data science hackathon to explore this fascinating dataset. $10,000+ in prizes will be awarded to winning projects: 1/4

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

In today's Ukraine forecast update: The community now gives only 15% likelihood that Kyiv will fall by April, marking a rapid decline over the last week. Read on for the signals forecasters are discussing on this and other questions:

Metaculus Prediction Updates

@MetaculusAlert

2 years

Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022? Community prediction: 15% ⬇️ -5% in the last 5 hours

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

In the Metaculus Journal: @rdeneufville estimates the likelihood of Ukraine conflict endgame scenarios: • Military Stalemate (45%) • Negotiated Stalemate (42%) • Escalation (7%) • Russian Defeat (4%) • Other (2%) Read the full analysis here:

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

1 year

Which psychology studies will replicate? 🔬 @ClearerThinkng selected a @ScienceMagazine paper to replicate. 🔭Now, you can forecast the results. Learn about the Transparent Replications initiative & help support robust research here:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

Was the pandemic a black swan? Not really. In partnership with @CSERCambridge and @FLIxrisk we asked whether there'd be a naturally spawned pandemic leading to >100M reported infections or >10M deaths by 2026. This was assigned a >30% chance for every day for over 3 years.

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Metaculus

@metaculus

11 days

Five years post-AGI, what will be the state of democracy, of extreme poverty, of world GDP? Will we see a UBI? A Dyson swarm? A complete theory of quantum gravity? This week we're focusing on these and related questions in a new experimental initiative:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

With that, our question, "Will there be a restaurant serving cultured meat by the end of this year?", resolves positively. Well done @eatjust !

A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?

The aggregate of 677 Metaculus community forecasters was 72% on Jul 31, 2024.

www.metaculus.com

Josh Tetrick

@joshtetrick

4 years

At 7:03 pm Singapore time, cultured/cultivated meat made its historic commercial debut on the plates of 4 thoughtful kids and their inspiring teacher, @cpsillides . The future of meat is here.

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Here's @kikollan on his latest piece in @el_pais covering Metaculus and the value of forecasting for the conflict in Ukraine, with quotes by @juan_cambeiro and @NunoSempere . You can read the full (paywalled) story here:

¿Se puede predecir el futuro de la guerra en Ucrania? Es lo que intenta una comunidad de pronosti...

Hay gente atenta a sus pronósticos, como el bielorruso que dejó este mensaje agradecido: “Me mudé de Kiev a Lviv el 13 de febrero gracias a este hilo. Salgo hoy del país”

elpais.com

Kiko Llaneras

@kikollan

2 years

🔮1/ El día de la invasión rusa, alguien escribió agradecido en un foro de internet: “Me mudé de Kiev a Lviv el 13 de febrero gracias a este hilo de predicción”. Escribo de la comunidad de pronosticadores. Y de su auge. ¿Pueden predecir la guerra?

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

Our friends at @oughtinc launched Elicit, a tool for converting your beliefs into probabilities. Forecasters can focus on the things they enjoy most: reasoning about likely scenarios, factors, and the world in general. Elicit then takes care of the rest.

Introducing Elicit

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

8 months

China can't import cutting-edge AI chips, but demand is strong and growing rapidly. Today we launch the Chinese AI Chips Tournament with @_IAPS_ to generate strategically valuable forecasts on China's ability to produce AI chips at scale. Forecast here:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Read @RichardHanania 's new essay in the Metaculus Journal on his latest Ukraine forecasts and the challenges of wartime forecasting:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

5 years

When @Voxdotcom 's Future Perfect made falsifiable 2019 predictions, we applauded the move and encouraged others to follow suit. Now we've given some of those predictions the Metaculus treatment so you can prognosticate alongside @KelseyTuoc & @dylanmatt :

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Metaculus

@metaculus

1 year

We’ve officially launched the Metaculus API! 🔬 Analyze a rich, quantitative database of community predictions 💾 Download your complete track record 🏗️ Build on Metaculus’s extensive forecasting infrastructure Start here:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

The second round of the Forecasting AI Progress Tournament launches today! Think deeply about the future of AI, and to then put your thinking to the ultimate test. You can win up to an impressive $11,500 for your accuracy and foresight. Editors picks ⬇️

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

How will you test and refine your beliefs about the world in 2022? Forecasting offers a great tool for self-improvement! We've gathered predictions by thinkers we admire like @tobyordoxford , @ESYudkowsky & @willmacaskill so you can forecast alongside them:

2022 Resolutions: Predict with Public Figures

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

We'd like to welcome our new Alt-Protein Community Shaper, Jeffray Behr! A researcher for @Rebellyousfoods and Stanford's @GoodFoodInst Alt Protein Project, Jeffray will support our tournament forecasters. Come say hello and ask your alt-protein Qs here:

Hi! I'm your new Alt-Protein Community Shaper

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

Interested in a sneak preview of 2022? Metaculus partnered with @TheEconomist 's data journalism team to produce forecasts on some of the upcoming year's key events. See the results here:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

6 years

A fungus called Massospora doses cicadas with an amphetamine and with psilocybin, the hallucinogen found in shrooms. Also, it makes their butts fall off, @edyong209 reports:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

1 year

How accurate is Metaculus's AI forecasting? We report the results of a new analysis that found both community & Metaculus predictions robustly outperform naive baselines. Read the main takeaways in this 🧵 or dive into the analysis & methodology here:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

Stay up-to-date on over 50,000 predictions on #COVID -19 trends, treatments, policy & more, made by forecasters with the top track-records. Now all in one place on our Pandemic Dashboard:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

We’re hiring #FrontEnd , #BackEnd , and #FullStack Engineers to scale up our platform as we undertake ambitious forecasting programs focused on AI, biosecurity, climate change, nuclear security, and more. Apply to one of our new, high-impact roles here.

Metaculus

At Metaculus, our aim is to improve human decision-making and coordination at scale by increasing analytic capacity, reasoning, and judgment. With the unique capabilities of the Metaculus forecasting...

apply.workable.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

Metaculus and Rachel Aicher of CUNY Hunter College are excited to announce the results of an expert forecasting session on risks to the 2020 US Election! You can find a summary of the results and analysis along with a link to the full report here: (1/14)

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Metaculus

@metaculus

1 year

Interested in how top forecasters predict the future? Curious about others' reactions to the forecasts in the question feed? Join us for Forecast Fridays, 12pm ET each week, featuring discussions led by pro forecasters & the Metaculus team! Learn more:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

1 year

Room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductivity could enable a perfectly efficient power grid, commercially viable fusion reactors & levitating trains. Our new Lens on Superconductors page helps you follow and forecast on this fast-moving story:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

We have a new Medium post up that uses forecasts by our community to inform what this new variant-laden phase of the pandemic might look like and some key actionable steps that can be taken in response:

The new variants and the next phase of the pandemic

On 24 January 2020 — just over a year ago — Metaculus user @traviswfisher wrote an astoundingly prescient comment on a question asking…

metaculus.medium.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

Join the Future Perfect team in forecasting 2022 with our new question series built around their predictions! Forecast on the US midterms, gain-of-function research, climate change, presidential elections, and more here:

Vox Future Perfect Predictions for 2022

www.metaculus.com

Vox

@voxdotcom

3 years

The team at Future Perfect has 22 predictions for the new year, on everything from the Oscars to AI

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

Metaculus's own @juan_cambeiro appears on this week's Global Guessing podcast, where he speaks to his forecasting practice and to what he owes his impressive track record on COVID-19 and other topics. You can watch the video here:

GeoVane

@GeovaneVideo

3 years

🎙️ He's a #Superforecaster , placed 1st in @GJ_Open 2020 Coronavirus Tournament, and works @Metaculus . Now, he’s joining us for a podcast appearance! What are @Juan_Cambeiro 's forecasting successes, failures, and advice for being on #TheRightSideofMaybe ?

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Introducing Peter Mühlbacher, our new Research Scientist! Peter's PhD in mathematics focused on probability theory & quantum mechanics. At Metaculus, he'll deploy ML models & develop algorithms to sharpen the accuracy of our aggregate forecasts—particularly on key topics like AI.

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

We are excited to be covered in @Forbes for our COVID-19 forecasting work. Contributor, Erik Birkeneder, writes about our recent El Paso series: "A hospital in El Paso recently partnered with the Metaculus Pandemic Project ... so they could plan for resource allocation (1/3)

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

15,000 Metaculus community forecasts helped inform vaccine, testing & resource planning efforts in 2021's Keep Virginia Safe Tournament. Today we're proud to continue supporting public health efforts alongside @VDHgov & @UVA_BI with Keep Virginia Safe II:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

We're excited to introduce fan graphs, folding observed data and current predictions into a single intuitive time series for more streamlined forecasting. See featured fan graphs and learn how they make it easier to identify trends across questions here:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

Metaculus has recently become more pessimistic about an effective SARS-CoV-2 vaccine being widely available soon. The community now assigns only a 57% chance to more than 10M being administered a vaccine with at least a 95% efficacy rate before April 2023.

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Metaculus is currently down, as are AWS and Heroku. We're monitoring the situation closely and will get the platform up again as soon as we're able.

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

A big welcome to Rudolf Ordoyne, who joins the Metaculus Team as a Forecasting Analyst. He brings a degree in mathematics and his experience as a longtime Metaculus question moderator and writer, having authored 150+ questions and commented on over 1000. Welcome, Rudolf!

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

We're thrilled to welcome @atakanseckin as our Head of Design! Atakan previously worked on the first blockchain-based health record system and on tech for guiding firefighters through heavy smoke. At Metaculus, he'll oversee the design and prototyping of new forecasting features.

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

From the Metaculus Journal Podcast: @EgeErdil2 explores the history of global population declines, from the Black Death and Plague of Justinian, to the Spanish flu and Mongol conquests. Listen to the full episode here:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

We're excited to launch the Sagan Space Tournament! This initiative will deliver forecasts on key milestones and developments in spaceflight and exploration with a focus on issues surrounding space governance. Start forecasting:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Introducing the Metaculus Journal Podcast: weekly audio readings of Journal articles delivering cogent analysis fortified by testable predictions. Subscribe and listen here:

‎The Metaculus Journal on Apple Podcasts

‎Technology · 2022

podcasts.apple.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

We’re excited to let you know that the third and final instalment of the Forecasting AI Progress Tournament—the Deep Learning Round—has just gone live. This time, it’ll put your long-term forecasting abilities to the test. Here some of this round’s editor's picks:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

1 year

Now it's easier to follow the forecasts you care about, with new notifications that update you on shifting community predictions, alert you at regular intervals, and more:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

New in the Metaculus Journal: @basilhalperin forecasts on five key questions focused on the next 30 years of monetary policy: In this 🧵: His forecasts, the Metaculus Community's forecasts, and where they diverge.

Monetary Policy in 2050

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Welcome @dschwarz26 , Metaculus's new Chief Technology Officer! Dan led multiple teams at @Google and built Gleangen, the world's largest corporate prediction market. He'll expand Metaculus's engineering team while overseeing the execution of a high-impact technology roadmap.

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Metaculus

@metaculus

10 months

How has the AI risk landscape shifted since @FLIxrisk 's AI pause letter? Last week, @Reuters assembled Metaculus's @fianxu , MIT's @tegmark , and UC Berkeley's Stuart Russell to discuss the letter's impact, the current state of play, and what comes next:

LIVE: A Reuters NEXT conversation on the AI development pause and...

Friday, Sept 22 will mark six months since the Future of Life Institute's landmark open letter, signed by over 30,000 individuals. Join us for a discussion b...

www.youtube.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Sometimes you don't want a sure thing. That's why we're introducing Metaculus ProblyMail📨 — the only email service that runs a quantum random number generator to determine whether your message is transmitted. Start sending 68.3% of your emails, today:

Introducing Metaculus ProblyMail

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

We’re delighted to announce that fan graphs now have images in the main feed! Now you can quickly see the trend in forecasts across a range of resolution dates.

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Metaculus

@metaculus

3 years

Metaculus is #hiring three high-impact positions: 1. Junior UI Designer 2. Full-Stack Developer 3. Public Policy Data Scientist Please get in touch if you're interested in working with us, or pass this on if you know someone who might be!

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

We’re thrilled to welcome our new Product Designer, Ioana Bitoiu! Ioana brings a user-centered design perspective to our team and will develop the look & feel of new features while honing our UI/UX strategy. She also enjoys alpinism, playing piano, & photography. Welcome, Ioana!

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Today, we're excited to introduce question groups! By collecting closely related questions on a single page, question groups support more efficient, more consistent forecasting. Learn more and start predicting with them here:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

1 year

Comparing grouped forecasts and how they’ve updated over time is now faster and more efficient. Display up to six forecasts simultaneously and control more of what you see with our enhanced timelines. Learn more:

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Metaculus

@metaculus

4 years

When will there be at least one billion Americans? cc: @mattyglesias

When will there be at least one billion Americans?

The aggregate of 57 Metaculus community forecasters was greater than Dec 26, 2120 on Jul 31, 2024.

www.metaculus.com

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Will Ukrainian cities be under Russian control on June 1st? Metaculus community predictions for most cities remain at 1%, but Mariupol's forecast has shifted considerably over the last week: 73% → 87%

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Metaculus

@metaculus

2 years

Welcome Alex Leader as our Forecasting Program Director! He's led innovation initiatives for US govt agencies, built text analytics products as a data scientist, and is an advisor for @AIforGood . At Metaculus, he will lead partner engagements and expand the scope of our programs.

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