Neil Sethi @neilksethi Twitter profile

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Neil Sethi

4 days

The Week Ahead - 10/20/24 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics, equities and fixed income $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

3 months

This is the heart of the #SahmRule . You can quibble about the level of increase needed. Her main point was that the unemployment rate tends to trend, and when it gets going to the upside it tends to keep going until the #FOMC takes action, or we cycle through a recession.

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

3 months

5) The unemployment rate basically never stays flat. It's almost always going in one direction or another. Right now the direction is up.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

3 years

@hmeisler Here's another good one from @bespokeinvest .

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

9 months

Morningstar out of consensus take: #lithium concerns are overdone. "As supply growth slows, undersupply conditions will emerge, supporting rising prices in [2H 2024]...we expect prices will remain volatile but average $25,000 per metric ton [over the next decade]." #oott

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

"It's the most wonderful time of the year..."

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

1 year

“.. this seasonality chart is one worth keeping in your back pocket...” - GS desk / Flood $SPX

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

2 years

@hmeisler Speaking of which I'm sure you noticed today is 8/22/22 --> 8=2+2+2+2

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 years

I like this new bull porn Oddstats. Much better than when he was posting ugly, dark side bear porn. Was disturbing...

OddStats

@OddStats

6 years

MORE BULL PORN If you bought $SPX at the close Dec 31, the most you have been down at any point during the first 33 trading days of 2019 is -2.51% (yes, that's it). Here's every year since 1983 that started with no worse than a -3% draw down in the first 33 days.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

11 months

BoA trucking demand indicator falls to 3rd lowest weekly level since 2020, remaining at/below 50 for the 21st time over the past 26 issues and is well below the 54.2 average level of the ’12, ’15, ’19 Freight Recession periods.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

13 days

BoA (Hartnett): "we buy any #China dips as policy makers saying capital markets to be used aggressively to boost domestic animal spirits & demand, and expect China GDP upgrades from 4.6%"

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 months

Love Odd Lots, but this one might be the best. And it's not just an "ex-CIA officer" but the guy who literally "wrote the book". And it's not just "in business" but for Jacobs, a serial acquirer of co's, meaning the process has been thoroughly tested (w/lots of examples).

Tracy Alloway

@tracyalloway

6 months

BONUS ODD LOTS AN EX-CIA OFFICER EXPLAINS HOW TO SPOT A LIE IN BUSINESS @TheStalwart and I first heard about Phil Houston from billionaire Brad Jacobs, who said that he works with the former CIA polygrapher as part of his due diligence for potential acquisitions. So we invited

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

4 years

@hmeisler At 9:21:21 PM it will be the 21st second of the 21st minute of the 21st hour of the 21st day of the 21st year of the 21st century. Just thought you should know.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

2 years

cc @hmeisler Also, today is 03/13/23.

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

$KRE $44.44

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

5 months

Carson Group's @RyanDetrick unsurprisingly thinks Dow 40k is just a mile marker: Can stocks keep going? “We think they can,” Detrick said. “Earnings continue to surprise to the upside, balance sheets for Corporate America are in great shape, while the consumer might have some

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

4 months

Two really interesting guests this week. @WarrenPies is a solid stream of interesting thoughts/data. Learn all about OER (from both guests), why Warren thinks the gains aren't done for the $SPX, why he sees a potential Dec/Jan top, and how he's allocating his investments.

Jeremy Schwartz

@JeremyDSchwartz

4 months

The key issue for inflation today is shelter inflation. This week BTM pod we talk w/ @sffed research advisor John Mondragon about his views on shelter costs. @WarrenPies also shares his take and gives us a second half outlook. Check it out.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

10 months

Not something you normally hear in a recession

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

10 months

WELLS: "Our year-end CIO survey suggests [I.T.] budget growth next year, with >90% of respondents suggesting budgets will grow in '24 (~50% low-single-digit growth, ~50% high-single-digit growth or higher) and $MSFT receiving the most mentions .. We view the stable-to-improving

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

10 months

Great stat from Warren.

Warren Pies

@WarrenPies

10 months

Owning the market when the average strategist target implies a <5% gain improves returns and lowers drawdowns (blue line). On the other hand, get out of the market once strategists become euphoric (purple line)...

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 years

This IS a good one.

OddStats

@OddStats

6 years

HOLY. SHIT. Ok, follow me here, because this is a fucked up OddStat worth popping your eyes at. 3 of the past 4 months on $SPX have seen a return of at least +/- 6.5%, something that honestly doesn't happen that often. Here are the forward returns for every event since WW2.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

Wealthy consumers around the globe still willing to spend for their Birkin bags. "Hermes hasn’t seen a change in shopping trends as of early October"

The Transcript

@TheTranscript_

1 year

Hermes CEO: "The solid performance in Q3 reflects the desirability of our collections all over the world, with still a sustained momentum in Asia & in the Americas" —Leather Goods:+16% —Ready-to-wear:+18% —Silk & textiles:+6.3% —Perfume & Beauty:+6.3% —Watches:+22%

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 months

Contrary to popular opinion, it seems like the "worst six months" normally just works in the 2nd year of the Presidential cycle.

Ryan Detrick, CMT

@RyanDetrick

6 months

Sell in May? Did you know that these 'worst six months' tend to do quite well in an Election year? In fact, up nearly 78% of the time.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

24 days

Now we’re deep into the buyback blackout period with nearly the entire $SPX in the blackout which lasts until Oct 25th.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 months

BoA: "The inventory cycle is at its trough. A re-stocking cycle should begin soon"

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

8 days

BoA (Suttmeier): Relative rotation graph: -Leading (positive relative trend & momentum): Real Estate, Utilities, Staples, Financials, Industrials (from Improving) & Health Care. -Weakening (positive trend/negative momentum): Technology. -Lagging (negative trend/negative

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

7 months

So far Tom's looking pretty smart.

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

7 months

FUNDSTRAT: today’s selloff “is probably a ‘gift’ .. In fact, stocks being weak into the jobs report is actually a positive setup. .. raises the probability of a rally .. we are buying this short-term dip.” @fundstrat $SPX

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 month

BoA: "The #Fed typically only surprises the market in a dovish direction. The Fed generally likes hawkish signals to be well telegraphed so as not to surprisingly tighten financial conditions." #FOMC

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

9 days

BoA GFS: the biggest jump in global equity allocation since Jun’20 (net 31% OW).

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

4 months

Well worth the read, and a great reminder: "stock prices are mostly driven by earnings growth and the return of profits to shareholders. Of [the] 163% return for the S&P 500 over the last seven years, 103% of it was from earnings growth and 32% from dividends."

Ryan Detrick, CMT

@RyanDetrick

4 months

The whole @CarsonResearch team is super proud to share our Midyear Outlook! Eyes on the Prize is something you can use to show where we've been, but also where we could be headed. Enjoy!

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

5 months

Great podcast. Was interesting to hear Jeff's thinking on why a 12-yr supercycle (which was the duration of the previous two) makes sense. #oott

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

5 months

Jeff Currie says he feels stronger about the bullish copper trade than any other ideas he’s had in the three decades of his career

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

25 days

As we move into October, we enter one of the historically best two weeks of the year (3rd best). $SPX

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

13 days

BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator “surges” the most this year “to 7.0 from 6.0 [highest since May ‘21] driven by record inflows to EM equities & debt, plus stronger credit technicals". To get "BofA Bull & Bear Indicator up to 'sell signal' of >8.0 in coming weeks" need "a. BofA

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

JPM says we're likely in the midst of "significant systematic selling" via @DougKass

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

7 months

To reiterate what I think is a key piece of information we get from the #NFP report: total payrolls income (the collective sum of take-home pay) came in at a blazing +0.84% m/m, +5.9% y/y (up from +5.3% in Feb) which will be very supportive to household balance sheets.

Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

7 months

Mar #NFP quicklook is another beat at +303k vs +214k exp’d & above the 12mth avg of +231k. Also Jan/Feb rev’d up by +22k, and the household survey which has been lagging saw big jump of +498k. Still unempl rate falls to 3.8% as exp’d, as jump in employed offset by +469k incr in

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

Another house divided. You've got Slimmon pushing equities while Wilson and Shalett remain v bearish at MS. Similar to Hartnett (bearish) and Subramanian (bullish cyclicals) over at BoA.

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

1 year

MORGAN STANLEY: "As we get closer to the end of the year, the pain of being underweight equities and the resultant lack of performance is going to intensify -- forcing positive fund flows." $SPX @FortuneMagazine

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

4 months

Goldman sees job market "at a potential 'inflection point' where any further softness in demand for workers will hit jobs, not just job openings," and despite "moderate pickup" in 2H "most of the recent slowdown is likely here to stay."

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

4 months

Goldman is sticking by its call of two cuts in 2024, despite the dot plot just indicating one

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

2 months

BoA Sell Side Indicator: "Getting bullisher and bullisher". The contrarian sentiment signal (tracks sell side strategists’ avg recommended allocation to equities in a balanced fund) +61bp to 56.2% in Aug, now the closest to “Sell” since Jan '22 (1.8pt away vs. 4.9pt from “Buy”).

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

2 years

@TheStalwart And 494 of the S&P 500.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

10 months

While returns 1-yr out after new highs are a little better than avg, "looking at the 12 times (since WWII) the Dow went at least one year without a new high and then finally made one, ol’ Papa Dow was higher a year later 10 times [up an avg +14.1% w/median return of 16.4%.]"

Ryan Detrick, CMT

@RyanDetrick

10 months

New Post: All About Dow New Highs 💪🐂🎯

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 years

@AOC @seemacnbc Comparing Amazon to Foxconn is not helpful to your cause and displays a certain amount of ignorance. End of the day, NY would have been better off even if they gave back $3B to Amazon. Now those benefits are lost. There's no other way to square this circle.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

BofA agrees w/r/t food ingredient co's that GLP-1 selloff likely overdone.

Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

"reductions could be in the 1-3% range". Maybe the selloff in staples is a little overdone?

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 years

@morganhousel Not exactly. It's like a secret language. Sometimes it's like "I'm about to do this unbelievably dangerous maneuver so don't go left or we all die" or something similar. I've thought I understand it only to realize if I was driving I would have just died...

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

3 years

More #supplychaingreenshoots . cc @hmeisler

Liz Ann Sonders

@LizAnnSonders

3 years

Costs for shipping containers from Shanghai to LA or NY still up > 150% y/y but at least they’re now off peak (which neared +300% for NY route)

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 years

@WSJ @TimDuy So would this be all over the news if it was a female President?

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

21 days

JPM's scenario analysis for Fri's #NFP . Their thinking seems to be "bad news is bad news" and "good news is good news" but "great news is bad news".

CNBC

@CNBC

22 days

The big catalyst for the week: How to trade Friday’s job report

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

5 years

This is a great chart from @topdowncharts that shows one of the primary reasons I am remaining constructive. If you notice, every time there is a lot of global tightening there is an economic pullback (08, 11, 15, 19) that is reversed by loosening.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

2 months

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rose a tenth to 6.2, the 1st incr in 5wks after falling from the highest since May ‘21. The incr was “on big inflows to stocks & bonds despite higher FMS cash (4.3%) and additional hedges against lower S&P500 and stronger Japanese yen; note hedge funds

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 month

BoA (Hartnett): " #Fed 50bps cut sees Wall St follow 'soft cuts'/'panic cuts' script…trade classic 'Fed pivot' (see asset rally of 1975-76 as Fed slashed from 9% to 4%) on expectation Fed can prevent payrolls <100k & rise in delinquencies/defaults"

Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 month

BoA (Hartnett): "12 occasions since 1970 that Fed cut rates for 1st time…3 types of cuts & 3 types of Wall St reaction: 1. "Soft cuts"…Fed cuts into "soft landing", e.g. 1984, 1995, 2019... positive for stocks (S&P 500 up 10% in 6 months after 1st cut) and bonds (10-year UST

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

2 months

For those wondering why there's no updates on the hotly anticipated #NFP benchmark revisions from the BLS, it's b/c they appear to not have been posted yet.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

4 months

Golden Pass was supposed to be most of the incr'd $LNG export capacity coming online in N America in 2024. Sounds like that's not happening. #natgas $UNG #oott

Giovanni Staunovo🛢

@staunovo

4 months

Golden Pass LNG Warns of Delays After Contractor’s Bankruptcy Texas gas-export project has 140 workers left from Zachry Venture looking to hire new contractor after firm’s collapse

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 months

With CEO Bakish not backing the Skydance takeover, the board & Shari Redstone's National Amusements want to create an “Office of the CEO” to run the co. What a complete mess (full disclosure I'm still long hoping value will emerge despite their best efforts). $PARA

LiveSquawk

@LiveSquawk

6 months

Paramount Considers Removing CEO Bob Bakish As Turmoil Over Sale Talks Deepens - @WSJ

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

2 months

Total BoA card spending per h/h +2.8% y/y in wk ending Aug 31, "likely driven by the change in the timing of Labor Day compared to last year." Furniture saw the biggest increase w/w, entertainment the largest decline.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

10 months

I think this qualifies as a "light" earnings calendar.

The Transcript

@TheTranscript_

10 months

Next week in earnings looks like this: Merry Christmas!

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

22 days

BoA (Subramanian): In 3Q Value led Growth (+9.4% vs. 3.2%) for the first quarter since 4Q22, but Growth is leading Value by 8ppt YTD

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

8 months

BoA sees solid increase in card spending in Feb but lower income falling off despite rising real incomes.

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

8 months

BofA: Total card spending rose 0.4% MoM in February on a seasonally adjusted basis Lower-income households' spending growth appears to have slackened. Overall, consumer spending momentum appears soft, but stable

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

3 months

This is an interesting point. Depending on where you draw the line, this is the first time $VIX has closed above the downtrend line from Oct '22 for 2 consec wks (although it was guaranteed to happen eventually).

🇮🇳 VKA

@vka27

3 months

@neilksethi Yup a Doji week ! Second consecutive weekly close above the 4month DTL ! March 23 - SVB Oct 23 - Bottom of July 23 High April 24 - Iran War panic bottom July 24 - breakout on what news may be weekend or next week has rhe answer ... 👌 Next week shud be fireworks !

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

@StockMarketDrip @SamRo Is it Kragled?

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

9 months

#Cocoa now at 45yr high, up 100% since start of 2023, rivaling spike in 1977 on similar crop issues which show no sign of abating. During that spike Hershey $HSY raised wholesale prices 18% in 1976 then 46% in 1977. #oott

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 month

Goldman models CTAs as buyers this week "under all scenarios" as well as the next 2 weeks & the next month under 2/3 of scenarios. That will hopefully offset the lack of corporate buyers w/the buyback blackout window at 80%. via @dailychartbook

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 month

With inflation expectations little changed, real rates fell along with nominal rates this week pushing 10yr real rates (based on 10yr inflation-indexed bonds) -7bps w/w to +1.63% the least since July ‘23.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

5 months

#ISM services #PMI comments again mixed this month w/many noting demand and/or rising costs, although as w/last month it’s clearly not across the board. Also seems to be a higher level of uncertainty on a variety of fronts (economic, political, etc.).

LiveSquawk

@LiveSquawk

5 months

US ISM Services Index May: 53.8 (est 51.0; prev 49.4) - Prices Paid: 58.1 (est 59.0; prev 59.2) - Employment: 47.1 (est 47.2; prev 45.9) - New Orders: 54.1 (est 53.2; prev 52.2)

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

19 days

CNN Fear & Greed Index continued to move up, ending the week at 74, the highest since March, up from 39 four wks ago & on the cusp of Extreme Greed territory (i.e., their sell signal).

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 months

Some big bank reactions to the $META earnings. JPM & Citi slash targets while Goldman and MS hold firm. via @cnbc

LiveSquawk

@LiveSquawk

6 months

$META | Meta: JP Morgan Cuts Target Price To $480 From $535

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

29 days

While Iraq, Kazakhstan & Russia are the countries which #OPEC has officially called out as overproducers, Javier says "the biggest problem, however, lies elsewhere" w/the #UAE pumping up to 600kbd above its official OPEC numbers according to private estimates. #oott #WTI

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

29 days

COLUMN: Some OPEC+ members aren't playing fair. Year-to-date, the cartel has pumped more than 600,000 b/d above its self-imposed limits. Cheating is an own goal -- and a key reason why oil is down 20% from a year ago to ~$75 a barrel. @Opinion #OOTT

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 years

@RampCapitalLLC The results are shocking. I had no idea so many people had no friends or access to distribution lists....

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 years

@EddyElfenbein @OddStats goes on vacation and you try to steal his job. Shameless...

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

I know it's been weak for small caps, but surprised it's been a near record. via @dailychartbook

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

8 months

#NAHB : “Buyer traffic is improving as even small declines in interest rates will produce a disproportionate positive response among likely home purchasers…With [exp’s of 2H 2024 rate cuts], NAHB is forecasting that single-family starts will rise about 5% this year.” #housing

Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

8 months

#NAHB homebuilder index up 4 pts to 48, highest since Aug, though still under 50 poor/good div line. Sales exp’s +3pts to 60, best since June 2020, current sales +3pts to 57 & buyer traffic 4 pts to 33, 8 & 6 mth highs resp. Regions all improve led by NE at 62.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

23 days

BoA on Port strike: "A strike lasting a few days is unlikely to significantly tighten the market... [but] a prolonged strike lasting a few weeks could drive global congestion levels to all-time highs and potentially drive a surge in spot freight rates particularly on transpacific

CNBC

@CNBC

23 days

East and Gulf Coast ports strike, with ILA longshoremen walking off job, stranding billions in trade

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

While some of the Chinese #crude imports may have gone into storage, you don't get to record refinery output without using a lot of oil.

Giovanni Staunovo🛢

@staunovo

1 year

#China 's oil refinery throughput in August rose to a record (Crude throughput at 15.23 mln bpd, +19.6% yr/yr), as processors in the world's second-largest crude consumer kept run rates high to meet summer travel demand and capitalise on strengthening export margins. #oott

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

2 months

Summary of some points from Richmond #Fed Pres ('24 voter) Odd Lots interview (w/link). Big takeaway seems to be that he doesn't see the current "no hiring, no firing" situation as persisting indefinitely but sounds like he sees risks that it goes in either direction. #FOMC

ForexLive

@ForexLive

2 months

Fed's Barkin:

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

28 days

@carlquintanilla And don't look now but GDI rev'd up +2.1% to 3.4% (real)/6.0% (nominal). The avg (an NBR recession indicator) was 3.2/5.8%, so those hanging their recession hats on GDI telling the "real story" of the economy will need a new hatrack (as it were).

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

2 years

How did I miss this? cc @hmeisler

NWS Nashville

@NWSNashville

2 years

Today is #FibonacciDay in honor of the Fibonacci sequence, where every number is the sum of the two that precede it. (Today is 11/23, or 1123.) The Fibonacci sequence describes much of what we see in nature from meteorology to astronomy to biology.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

According to Goldman, CTA (trend follower) positioning has now gone from full to low. via @dailychartbook

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

It's not just big tech, but as the story notes, the huge LNG projects in development also demand similar workers as the oil patch. A lack of available labor is another reason we may be near the top US production.

Giovanni Staunovo🛢

@staunovo

1 year

Big Tech Is Coming for the Oil Patch’s Workers, and Winning Data center, crypto recruiters tap into oil and gas talent Energy builders say Big Tech is a disruptor for labor #oott

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

2 months

BoA as of Thursday night was at 2.3% for their 3Q GDP est (they had 2.4% ahead of 2Q not far off the 2.8% actual 1st est).

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

3 months

@carlquintanilla Hmm. Maybe Barkin has a point.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

8 months

Goldman says energy stocks have diverged from #oil prices insinuating either upside for energy stocks or downside for #crude futures. via @dailychartbook $XLE

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

@TheStalwart Blink and you missed it.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

2 months

BoA: Corp. client buybacks decelerated for a second week and were below seasonal levels as a % of S&P 500 market cap for only the second time in the last 25 weeks. YTD, buybacks as a % of mkt. cap are still on pace for a record year in our data history.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

23 days

Goldman's Rubner notes that #China equities buying was a 6-sigma event brought to you by “predominately US macro hedge funds."

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

5 years

Apparently nobody cares about Markit today... US Markit Manufacturing PMI Sep F: 51.1 (est 51.0, prev 51.0)

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

15 days

Earnings (by market cap) peak the week of Oct 21st. The following week not far behind.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

12 days

BoA: "In the [Sep] HH survey, total employment was up 430k (versus 168k in August), while unemployment fell by -281k (versus -48k in August). This came along with low layoffs (Exhibit 3), more entrants into the labor force, an increase in full-time jobs, and a decline in

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

20 days

GS: The unemployment rate declined by 17bp to 4.05%, reflecting a 430k gain in household employment and an unchanged labor force participation rate

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20

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 month

BoA: " $SPX options suggest that the next two #NFP prints are the main catalysts until the election, consistent with the #Fed ’s focus on the labor market. CPI and retail sales are seen as smaller risks, while this week is expected to be the quietest until at least Nov. The big 3Q

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 month

BoA (Hartnett): "12 occasions since 1970 that Fed cut rates for 1st time…3 types of cuts & 3 types of Wall St reaction: 1. "Soft cuts"…Fed cuts into "soft landing", e.g. 1984, 1995, 2019... positive for stocks (S&P 500 up 10% in 6 months after 1st cut) and bonds (10-year UST

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

9 months

Great chart from Citi which brings home 2024 is not so much all about Fed cuts (which are likely coming) but more about whether those are "adjustment" cuts or whether those are "recession" cuts. via @dailychartbook

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 years

@RampCapitalLLC He must be watching Fast Money...

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

4 years

@thinkorswim Maybe should have thought this through a little better...

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

4 years

SPX plows through 3100 like it wasn't even there.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

3 months

While #China 's overall consumer spending remains in the doldrums, air travel cont's to extend to new highs.

Giovanni Staunovo🛢

@staunovo

3 months

#China flights stats.... #OOTT

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

7 months

I keep hearing that the difference between now and 2000 is that companies now have "real" growth. Well, according to Goldman, they were exp'd to grow faster (both top 10 and $SPX TMT median) in 2000. So, what's really different then is the valuation, and that's it. via

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

6 months

Looks like the #SPX will finish above its downtrend line and up for the week but couldn't quite get over the 50-DMA (purple line). Positively, MACD crossed back over to "cover shorts" & RSI back over 50 to a 3wk high, so maybe next week?

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

9 months

Learned a lot from this: -Why #Egypt needs to be monitored -How VLCCs get through the #Suez -Why EV production is ST bullish oil -Why Russia doesn't want higher oil prices -80% of oil use is independent of autos Also reaffirms my thinking that #crude is rangebound in 2024.

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

9 months

If you have time this weekend👇👇👇👇👇👇

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

Goldman says CTAs (trend followers) are buying bonds in basically all scenarios other than a flat tape over the next month. If true, seems bullish for bonds (lower yields). via @dailychartbook

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 month

#FOMC cut probabilities little changed following in-line #retailsales report w/67% chance of 50bps tmrw & 119bps of cuts priced for this yr. 2yr yield though up 4bps (10yr unch). #UST

LiveSquawk

@LiveSquawk

1 month

US Retail Sales Advance (M/M) Aug: 0.1% (est -0.2%; prev 1.0%) - Retail Sales Ex Auto (M/M) Aug: 0.1% (est 0.2%; prev 0.4%) - Retail Sales Ex Auto And Gas Aug: 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.4%) - Retail Sales Control Group Aug: 0.3% (est 0.3%; prev 0.3%)

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

5 years

I've agreed and disagreed with @jimcramer over the years (although more the former ), but his thoughts on the trade war have been spot on of late (he called the breakdown over a month ago), and I think he may be right that Trump really isn't looking for a deal but much more.

TheStreet

@TheStreet

5 years

Are we looking at the ultimate #FlashbackFriday ? Here's what has @JimCramer wondering if @realDonaldTrump is willing to overturn 48 years of China policy:

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 year

Post from @RyanDetrick from last week "Busting 7 Common Myths". He tackles credit card and student loan debt, excess savings (although savings rate ticked down after it came out), retailer earnings, corp bankruptcies, higher rates, and gov't debt.

Busting 7 Common Myths

These are legitimate concerns and have many investors worried, but we think the chances of them becoming larger issues are smaller than many expect.

www.carsongroup.com

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

17 days

Invesco, JPM, HSBC, & Nomura are among those viewing the recent rebound in #China shares w/skepticism, looking for Beijing to back up stimulus pledges w/real money while Fidelity says “the rally can run."

Bloomberg Markets

@markets

18 days

The world-beating rally in Chinese stocks is failing to convince many global fund managers and strategists

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

1 month

Unfortunately for #natgas bulls, the area #Francine is exp'd to hit is home to 4 of the US' 7 currently operating #LNG export terminals. This will see a big disruption to exports. $UNG #oott

National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic

1 month

Tropical Storm #Francine Advisory 4A: Francine Stronger and Becoming Better Organized. Preparations Along the Louisiana Coast Should Be Underway.

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

3 months

10yr drop in yields this week most since 2008. $TNX

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

11 months

This is consistent with Goldman's analysis from last month that with corporate "excess savings" running down, buybacks would fall to the lowest since 2020 this year before rebounding somewhat in 2024.

Daily Chartbook

@dailychartbook

11 months

"2023 is set to mark the weakest year of global corporate buyback announcements since we began tracking this metric in 2016." @ChristineLShort @FactSet

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Neil Sethi

@neilksethi

9 months

Nice stat from Goldman. Since 2019 almost all of Mag 7's returns are explained by earnings growth (just 1% of 28% return has been multiple expansion). via @dailychartbook

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