Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi Twitter profile

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

It took @X nine months, but my Subscription application went through. If any of y'all want to support what I do.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

3 months

Last 20 years: S&P 500 +568% Berkshire Hathaway +554%

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

Largest outflow ever from European equities

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

Retail has sold all their US equity purchases from the last two years - Goldman

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 year

600k more realtors than homes for sale

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

Small cap forward P/E 10.8. Lowest since 1990.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

13 days

household debt as a share of household net worth is hovering around lows not seen since the mid-1970s

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

The P/E ratio on the S&P 490 is 14.6

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

8 months

Man of the year. @fundstrat $SPY $QQQ $IWM

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

Gas prices deflated by average hourly earnings are about where they were in 1991. Unchanged from 2004. Down 50% from the July 2008 high. -30% from 10 years ago.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

5 stocks account for 60% of S&P 500 return YTD

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

Coming up on 90 straight days of falling gas prices

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

Secular bull market from 2013 enters its tenth year Suttmeier BofA $SPY $SPX

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

Reminder: investing at all-time highs is safer than investing during drawdowns $SPY

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

Reminder: Investing at all-time highs is a pretty good wager

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

22 days

$NVDA P/E hardly changed last 18 months

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

he should've married someone in Congress

zerohedge

@zerohedge

2 years

*EX-COINBASE MANAGER ARRESTED IN US CRYPTO INSIDER TRADING CASE

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

6 months

US equity risk premium at 23-year low

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

Semiconductor production by location $SMH

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

24 days

GS Core Inflation Tracker is now below 2%

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

13 days

BofA: S&P 500 statistically expensive on 19 of 20 metrics

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

$XOM making more money than God. Purgatory.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

25 days

Millennials and Gen Z are ~90% invested in stocks in their 401ks

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

The median S&P 500 stock has a P/E of 14.5 - the lowest since early 2013

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

42% of Russell 2000 firms are unprofitable $IWM

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

BofA: History doesn’t repeat but it rhymes, even inflation history US CPI analog between 1967-1985 and 2014 to present

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

Supply of existing homes near record low So many homeowners locked-in with a mortgage under 4%. No point in moving now.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

Apollo: The current AI bubble is bigger than the 1990s tech bubble

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

Port bottlenecks have eased

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

USA gas prices: lowest since early March $3.888

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

16 days

New tech, big investments, booming productivity…and bursting stock bubbles

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

More than 50% of 74 US CPI components are running below 2.0% YoY for the first time since 2020

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

5 years

Did Facebook ban itself?

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

13 days

U.S. Equities See Both Secular and Cyclical Market Cycles

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

Still a horror show when scanning sector relative strength (ex tech, CS)

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

First equity inflow in 7 weeks

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

13 days

BofA private clients all in T-bills, no one in T-bonds

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

Largest weekly inflow ever to tech funds

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

In the S&P 500 the degree of stock concentration is extreme; the top 10 companies have the highest weight in the index since 1929

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

S&P 500 sector valuations.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

During the tech bubble stock prices clearly decoupled from fundamentals, a phenomenon we have yet to see recently Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500 – earnings & performance

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

Goldman: In a moderate recession, our model implies 2023 EPS would fall by 11% to $200 (vs. current consensus of $250). Assuming consensus EPS estimates move halfway (to $225) by year-end, a 14x P/E would bring the S&P 500 to 3150.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

24 days

US corporate bankruptcies in June reach highest monthly level since early 2020

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

21 days

$IWM best day vs $QQQ since 2001

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

3 years

Household debt holdings at all-time lows

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

4 years

1 year from now: "2021 has been a terrible year. So ready to move on."

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

13 days

Equities tend to perform well after the Fed cutting cycle starts, unless growth is weak

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 year

Is 19x too expensive? $SPX

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

Apollo: A default cycle has started

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

AI hyperscalers going bananas with capex

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

Money leaving chips for everything else

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

The inventory cycle is at its trough. A re-stocking cycle should begin soon -BofA

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

3 months

BofA: Electricity inflation is the highest in 40 years, just as data center & AI demand surge

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

Commodities now beating the Nasdaq 100 since Jan 2020 $DBC $QQQ

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

18 days

"The current AI bubble is bigger than the 1990s tech bubble" Apollo

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

12 days

Tom Lee's charts from the future. Let's go.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

Labor productivity rising after plateauing for 15 yrs

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

22 days

The BofA Global Wave is currently signalling an upturn in economic cycle

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

The probability of losing money in the S&P 500 over one day is a little worse than a coin-flip but declines to just 5% over a 10-year time horizon (data since 1929).

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

16 days

Bonds only hedge when inflation is <2% Rolling 24-month correlation between US stocks and Treasury bonds

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

BofA $AVGO Broadcom Inc Tale of transformation... from value to growth; raise PO to $2,150

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

14 days

Small cap earnings growth expected to be up ~20% YoY from Q4 2024 through 2025

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

44% of small caps are unprofitable - close to GFC levels

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

BofA: Only 24% of stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index YTD, marking the third narrowest 6-mo. period in history since 1986 (was narrower in Jul 2023 at 23% and in Feb 2020 at 21%).

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

4 months

Data center power demand doubling to 8% of total US power demand by 2030

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

Vanguard forecasts 10-year annual returns of: 5.1% of US stocks 7.6% for foreign stocks 3.6% for US aggregate bonds 3.1% from cash 2.5% inflation

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

7 months

The fastest easing of financial conditions in history

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

16 days

Every new dollar of debt generates just $0.58 of GDP

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

16 days

Earnings expectations for AI stocks are falling

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

3 years

64% of 23% YTD gain in Nasdaq (3780 stocks) down to just 5 stocks: Microsoft/Google/Apple/Nvidia/Tesla

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

9 months

Jay for President

Watcher.Guru

@WatcherGuru

9 months

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 FED Chair Jerome Powell says "just close the f*cking door" after climate protestors interrupt his speech.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

The Russell 2000 is historically cheap here.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

15 days

Mid caps never get any love. But long-term returns are sick.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 year

BofA: US dollar has begun 4th bear market of past 50 years

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

BofA: 60/40 portfolio fell 4.6% in August, extending the YTD loss to -19.4% On track to be the worst year since 1936.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

Farrell’s 10 market rules to remember

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: remains at 0, i.e. “max bearish” for the 9th consecutive week

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 years

Goldman's S&P 500 hard vs soft landing scenarios

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

13 days

US small cap flows dwarfed by flows to US large cap funds

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

28 days

Stocks have performed well since Thomas Jefferson was POTUS

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

For the first time ever, $IWM is now underperforming $SPY since its May 2000 inception

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

2 months

Goldman: S&P 500 path and valuation matrix: S&P 500 baseline forecast and four alternative scenarios

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

6 months

Europe’s equity market is dominated by a small group of internationally exposed quality growth compounders: the GRANOLAS (GSK, Roche, ASML, Nestle, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L'Oreal, LVMH, Astrazeneca, SAP and Sanofi). -GS

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 year

BofA’s Regime Indicator suggests that the economy has entered a downturn. @soberlook charts..

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

7 months

China now 9.3x earnings.. Europe under 13x

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

"Long Magnificent 7" remains the most crowded trade for the 15th consecutive month and is now the most crowded trade at 69%.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 month

25% increase in volatility from July-Nov of election years

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 year

surging Big Tech (big 7 up 31% YTD vs 3% for rest of S&P 500)

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

9 months

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: drops to 1.5 from 1.9, lowest since Nov'22, driven by large outflows from HY bonds, global stocks and worsening global equity market breadth;