Average DC think-tanker: IRAN SCARY! IRAN BIG BAD REGIONAL HEGEMON IN WAITING!
Iran: yeah so we sent like 7 of our top government officials on a helicopter tour of Fog Mountain™️ and when they crashed it took us 14 hours to find them because we’ve never heard of a transponder
I want to underscore this point. Just because Biden has now paused delivery of *some* weapons to Israel doesn't mean the last ~8 months of deliveries didn't happen.
Israel has already received and stockpiled more than enough ammo to conduct offensive operations in Rafah.
While everyone's talking about US withholding arms to Israel, April saw a spike in USmil heavylifters into Israel (highest since NOV).
And that's only USmil flights (more ammo brought from US bases on Israeli 747/707/c130)
That’s not how it works. PRC is willing to sacrifice telegraphing strategic intent in order to gain tactical surprise.
You make every drill along the CZ look exactly the same 185 times in a row, and there’s no way to know the 186th time is for real until it’s happening.
Updates from NYT:
- 331 Iranian drones & missiles launched
- Primarily from Iran, Iraq & Yemen
- U.S. forces helped shoot down
- Israel intercepted most with “some assistance” from allies
“Given how significant this attack was, it is difficult to see how Israel cannot respond.”
Wild to look back at these articles from just a few months ago in major publications like WaPo, FP, and Foreign Affairs only to realize they were literally a foreign intelligence operation.
Also, is it not weird to co-author pieces w/ your husband and not mention that anywhere?
My new
@washingtonpost
article with
@maxboot
on why a pro-US Japanese-South Korean-US trilateral alignment is the best answer to the anti-US trilateral alignment of China, Russia, and North Korea.
Ukraine will most likely use its F-16s for DCA and BARCAP sorties, as I noted in my paper a few weeks ago. Some occasional SEAD. No more, no less. They will not be a “game changer” in the war as others have claimed. The value is in long-term force modernization.👇
We should remember that Ukraine is receiving older variants of the F-16, it will only receive a limited number initially, its pilots received a very expedited training program, maintenance will be a bigger issue than with other NATO systems Ukraine has received, and we don't know
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: These small, isolated, and difficult to defend bases in austere parts of Syria and Iraq do not confer any strategic value on the United States. They exist solely as punching bags for Iran to kill Americans and gain political leverage.🧵
According to the U.S. Department of Defense, 8 American Servicemembers stationed at the Rumalyn Landing Zone in Northeastern Syria have received Treatment for possible Traumatic Brain Injuries (TBIs) and Smoke Inhalation, following Friday Night’s Drone Attack by Iranian-Backed
Huh. I was told six months ago the
#Houthis
were “about to find out why America doesn’t have universal healthcare,” yet they remain completely undeterred and appear to have retained all of their ASBM/ASCM capabilities. Weird.
Actual policy options here:
April 24 Red Sea Update
At 11:51 a.m. (Sanaa time) on April 24, a coalition vessel successfully engaged one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) launched from Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist-controlled areas in Yemen over the Gulf of Aden. The ASBM was likely targeting the MV
Ken is a true professional and his commitment to real journalism—giving no quarter; no fear or favor—is sorely lacking in our country right now.
Freed from the shackles of corporate media, I have no doubt he will continue to break even more important stories going forward.
This is huge. A reversal from the Jordanian position in April. Suggests to me the Jords are much more concerned this time around about the Iranian response.
Jordan reportedly informed the United States, Israel and Iran that it will not allow its airspace to be used by any party, Sky news Arabic reports citing a source.
The source added that Jordanian Foreign Minister informed Iranian officials during his visit to Tehran that if
@RashaAlAqeedi
Agree on the arrogance—which I think only bolsters my point that there is a *very* large gap between Iran’s actual capabilities and their highly aspirational ambitions.
There are quite literally countless targets in Isfahan that are not nuclear sites. Production facilities, etc. Not seeing anything definitive that nuclear sites have been hit yet. A more limited strike inside Iran on non-nuclear targets was always a possibility. Baghdad getting
Worth noting that
#Iran
🇮🇷 does *not* possess an ICBM capability, and is not able to directly strike the U.S. or Western Europe.
They do have MRBMs capable of hitting
#Israel
🇮🇱 and the broader Levant, but that is largely the extent of their demonstrated capabilities.
👋 Former CIA analyst and McCain staffer here—is that enough mainstream government experience for you?
The folks on this letter are absolutely correct about the risks of admitting Ukraine to NATO.
Instead of cheap ad hominem attacks, how about making a counterargument?
Too bad none of these “foreign policy experts” apart from George Beebe have any government experience. How many of them are funded by the Koch brothers with Trojan-horse like programs like yours in legit institutions and universities? Nice try.
🧵 THREAD 🧵 The big question right now is how the US should respond to the clear uptick in attacks on American troops in Iraq and Syria by Iran-backed Shia militia groups. Let's get into it.
As the situation in
#Niger
🇳🇪 continues to deteriorate, nobody is paying attention. We have ~1,000 men and women on the ground. If we don’t get them out immediately, we risk a catastrophic event.
In the past hour:
- Missile attack on shipping vessel off the coast of
#Hodeidah
,
#Yemen
.
- Suicide drone attack on U.S. troops in al-Tanf, SE
#Syria
.
- Air raid sirens ongoing in
#Israel
's southern
#Golan
, amid reports of a possible 'drone infiltration" from
#Syria
.
🚨 I'll be going live w/
@DanielLDavis1
on
@YouTube
at 2:00 PM EST to discuss one of the big questions this week: After what happened in
#Israel
, did we see an
#intelligence
failure, a
#policy
failure—both—or something else entirely? Join us:
"Minister of Foreign Affairs and Intelligence" would be a more accurate title for Burns at this point.
State Department looking awfully useless these days...
BREAKING: CIA director Bill Burns arrived in Israel on Thursday to meet Mossad director David Barnea and Prime Minister Netanyahu and discuss the hostage negotiations, per two sources with knowledge of the issue
Reporter: So, Hamas will attack our troops on this ‘pier’ right?
DoD: Oh for sure—but we hope not.
WHAT?
We need to know who devised this plan at the White House and DoD, because they need to be fired. This seems perfectly designed to draw the U.S. into the war.
I’ve written on the importance of denial and deception (D&D) capabilities many times.
Here’s how *not* to do it:
RuAF parking helos on top of Su-30 decoys that are painted onto the runway apron. 2D decoys aren’t effective, but this laziness just defeats the whole purpose.
This would be an *aspirational* Russian line of effort, and not entirely without precedent.
The alarmism shown by Rep. Turner and the media today is unwarranted.
We didn’t put out panicked press releases or declassify Soviet efforts on FOBS in the middle of the Cold War.
Per ABC, Russia wants to place a nuclear weapon into orbit. It could be used against satellites as some sort of ASAT capability.
It seems it is still unclear. This would directly challenge the Outer Space Treaty.
It still seems the true intent is unknown so unfortunately, I
This looks to be an accurate laydown of the U.S. strikes in
#Iraq
and
#Syria
; tracks with my info.
7x locations matches WH claim. 85x discreet targets noted by CENTCOM would have been spread across those seven sites.
Probably some BDA tomorrow.
(Map by
@ianellisjones
)
That loop can also wear down adversary readiness.
In era of satellite imagery/ubiquitous surveillance/social media/etc. regular drilling like this is one of the few remaining methods to mask a large-scale conventional offensive.
Gone are the days of sneaking up on the border.
The Pentagon tries to act like small remote U.S. outposts in austere parts of
#Syria
,
#Iraq
, and
#Jordan
are perfectly protected—but the truth is they’re hard to defend and lack robust AD capes—as I’ve argued previously.
This new reporting on T22 only underscores my point.
Tower 22, the US base in Jordan where 3 soldiers were killed in a drone attack last month, had "minimal if any" anti-drone defenses, soldiers who served on the base recently tell me:
Saying we’re *saving money* now that we don’t need to maintain the $320 million dollar pier we built which sank in two weeks because the Army couldn’t be bothered to google “maximum sea state” is literally one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard
Biden: “I’m the first President in a century that can report America is not at war anywhere in the world.”
LMAO. We’ve dropped 800+ PGMs on Yemen in the last 6 months alone. 3x U.S. soldiers were killed in Jordan and ~100 injured in Iraq and Syria since 7 Oct. Patently false.
SITREP: This is where things stand in the Middle East ahead of a likely Iranian attack on Israel within the next 48 hours.
(Map by
@ianellisjones
/
@iejmedia
)
@kenklippenstein
I used to write those assessments. This sounds accurate to me. Having spent a lot of my life doing COIN/CT, this heavy-handed approach is very fraught, and typically fails to achieve strategic objectives.
@kenklippenstein
This quote I gave to POLITICO *eight months ago* is evergreen.
Her Middle East policy is no different from Biden, nor any other neoliberal democrat. And the notion suddenly being tossed around that Phil Gordon is like secretly Chomsky in a suit is absolutely absurd.
@idontwa86202030
Casualty counts have obviously slowed due to the bombing. In a conflict like this, they can easily start to jump by the thousands with each update. Especially on the Pal side, they are almost entirely dependent on hospitals (overcrowded) and NGO assistance (blocked) to conduct
State has really slow-rolled the travel advisory updates. This was also the case during the massive protests in Beirut in 2019 as well.
I think there’s a sense that if they acknowledge the situation in Lebanon is totally untenable it augurs poorly for the rest of the region.
Contrary to what the armchair generals on TV have told you for 3 years, more aid will not magically win the war in Ukraine.
Clinging to this delusion doesn’t help Ukraine and stubbornly obfuscates the underlying issues plaguing the war effort. My latest:
This dude has literally been spotted, assessed, developed, recruited and tasked by EGIS and he just strolls right into any SCIF he wants whenever he feels like it lmao.
Make it make sense.
Senator Bob Menendez, who has been indicted for serving as an agent of a foreign government, just walked into a classified briefing with Antony Blinken per CNN.
Last time he attended a classified briefing, on Nov 1,
@mkraju
confronted him and here’s what Menendez said:
Hadi al-Amiri’s family targeted in Baghdad today.
al-Amiri is, famously, the head of the Badr Organization and a senior leader in the PMF. Badr is the “OG” Shia militia group. Very influential over some Iraqi institutions, specifically the regular Army and police out in Diyala.
I’m so tired of paid foreign agents and registered lobbyists working on behalf of foreign actors glibly telling American citizens that we must indefinitely allow our sons and daughters to die in their lands to save them from political inevitabilities and their own poor choices.
Washington Cannot Justify Its Troop Presence in Syria |
WRONG.
▪️U.S. troop presence in Syria is the most common sense Middle East policy any admin can agree on.
▪️U.S. troops are welcomed and invited by the people of northeast Syria, Assad is not the people of Syria neither
Don’t fucking make this about your weird faux-religious bullshit.
We need a sane Middle East policy, not unlimited brinksmanship that amounts to “prayers up fam” after you realize you’ve lost control and the fear sets in.
They shall be as nothing at all who do battle with you. For I am the LORD, your God,who grasp your right hand; It is I who say to you, Do not fear, I will help you.
Isaiah 12-13
I enjoyed chatting with
@connor_echols
at
@RStatecraft
on the risks of escalation in the
#IsraelHamasWar
.
The US shouldn’t let its guard down, even if doesn’t intend to get more involved.
>builds $300 million dollar pier
>puts U.S. troops in harm’s way, increasing risk of wider war
>admits zero aid from pier has actually made it to people of Gaza
We need to stop the reckless theatrical performance that is this Gaza pier immediately.
I would agree, seeing as Hezbollah fired 4,000 rockets over the course of the *entire* 34 day war in ‘06. Actual number from tonight is likely several hundred.
Seeing a number being circulated by Israel media (N12, et al) of planned Hezbollah rockets for the 1st wave in the neighborhood of 6000.
I find this number hard to believe. It would imply a near-unfathomable kill ratio.
32/
Boots, meet ground.
American crews seen stuck waiting on the beach in Gaza after high seas washed several support vessels ashore.
Biden’s Gaza pier is playing fast and loose with the lives of our service members.
The Pentagon should never have allowed this to go forward.
You cannot simultaneously argue that escalation with Russia means nothing because Russia has been exposed as a hapless paper tiger, and that Russia is also minutes away from successfully taking over the Baltics and Poland.
Pick a fucking lane.
@katebachwsj
Lmao wait do you think Iraq did 9/11???
👋 Former intel officer here not beholden to anyone’s petty politics.
I’ve worked the Middle East. You haven’t. Let me set you straight.
We invaded Iraq under false pretenses cooked up in DoD’s Office of Special Plans by Feith, Rumsfeld,
*looking at the state of utter chaos in the Middle East*
Jake Sullivan: Okay, okay—I got it. I know how to fix this. Let’s give Mohammed bin Salman nukes.
🫠
Here are the options: sit around and wait for dozens of American men and women to be killed in a catastrophic attack that sinks Biden in ‘24, escalate by striking Iran directly which will start a regional war and invite reprisals on Israel and the U.S., or… just move the troops.
BREAKING - 3 attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq within hours:
- Explosive device targets U.S-Iraqi patrol in Mosul
- Drone targets Harir airbase in Erbil, shot down
- Drone targets Ain al-Asad base west of Baghdad, shot down
via
@Reuters
Attacks escalating despite U.S. warnings
Any meaningful strike on Iranian soil w/o help from the U.S. would be difficult for Israel to pull off.
IAF only has one (aging) KC-707 squadron to provide the AAR capes needed to reach Iran. On the TACAIR side, they’re not able to generate the kind of strike package needed to
NEW: Israel's retaliation decision NOT finalized, mulling different options:
- Strike on facilities/research in Iran
- low-signature Mossad operation
- IRGC assassinations
- major cyberattack
- target presence in Syria or Iraq
Just returned from the Black Sea Security Forum (
@obssforum
) in Ukraine.
Excellent panels and discussions with global leaders on key issues in this third year of the war.
In addition to Odesa, I travelled to Mykolaiv and visited the frontlines in Kherson.
@johnkonrad
The idea we can substantially eliminate Houthi ASBM and OWA drone capabilities from the air has been a fallacy from the start. Just ask the Saudis.
Shia militia groups/KH/PMF have regularly attacked U.S. troops in Iraq since 7 OCT (and long before).
I’ve commented *many* times on the strategic liabilities of our presence in IRQ/SYR. We are now witnessing how those bases are used as leverage for escalation by adversaries.👇
“There are enough American troops to invite attacks, and not enough to deter them”—we’ve been saying this
@DefPriorities
for years.
A few small scattershot bases in
#Iraq
and
#Syria
are strategic liabilities, not assets. They give Iran leverage, rather than take it away.
Proof positive that U.S. troops in
#Iraq
and
#Syria
exist today only as punching bags and leverage for
#Iran
to escalate.
The fact we didn’t adjust our force posture when we had the chance in 2019 may come back to bite us as the tripwire for U.S. entry into massive regional war.
Scoop: Iran sent a message to the Biden administration through several Arab countries earlier this week: if the U.S. gets involved in the fighting between Israel and Iran, U.S. forces in the region will be attacked, three U.S. officials. My story on
@axios
17AUG - Middle East SITREP
-Almost 30% of the U.S. Navy fleet soon to be on station in the CENTCOM AOR.
-The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) remains several days away from the Arabian Sea.
(Map by
@ianellisjones
/
@iejmedia
)
The downsides to permanent alliances and broad collective security arrangements are becoming harder and harder to ignore.
Even in the face of an aggressive Russia, Western Europe—the wealthiest group of countries in the world—has simply lost any instinct for self-preservation.
Germany is again failing to meet its commitments to NATO and would rather shift responsibility for its OWN security to others. Americans are tired of stepping up for the wealthiest country in Europe.
“This month, in a reversal, Mr. Scholz’s government retreated from making a
President Biden’s interview with ABC is going incredibly well. He’s answering these questions directly, talking about his record in depth, and using incredible specifics. Biden is fit to serve and he’s our nominee. I can’t wait to vote for him.
Iran has tens of thousands of OWA drones and thousands of ballistic missiles.
Very concerning to see a number of large accounts on here with zero Middle East expertise and zero national-level intel experience spouting off on Iranian capabilities.
This is not good news. While everyone is watching Hezbollah, we could start to see different-in-kind attacks by Iran-backed Shia militias in Syria or Iraq that are more than the usual potshots.
🚨🚨:
I CONFIRM THIS:👇
IRGC Proxies and PMF are mobilizing and preparing their positions in all of IRGC-Held Deir Ez Zor, Rocket Launchers and Drones prepared, with a curfew in place against the locals
@VivaRevolt
If everyone truly wants to get off the escalation ladder to avoid WW3, any Israeli response needs to be muted.
They can calibrate strikes carefully to mitigate escalation risks, as Iran did tonight.
As the photo shows DCIA Burns speaking to POTUS during the NSC meeting on “what now,” I expect he’s cautioning that Netanyahu now has his excuse to strike Iranian nuclear targets as he has long wanted and what his likely demands will be if we’re to talk him out of it.
I’ve closely reviewed footage. My assessment as a former counterterrorism officer is that this was a clear assassination attempt on former President Trump. Multiple gunshots. It appears he was grazed on his right ear. Any effort to downplay this event is now outright suspicious.
In the same 24 hour span, Israel has assassinated one of
#Hezbollah
’s most senior commanders (in Beirut) *and* the leader of
#Hamas
(in Tehran).
If you weren’t concerned about escalation before today—you should be now.
All eyes on Iran/Hezb/AoR response.
ISIS: yeah, so we murdered those people, in a large-scale dramatic attack on a Western capital, as we’ve done several times over the past decade. we literally published the body cam footage.
X today:
Islamic State-affiliated Amaq News agency released a graphic video of the Moscow attack, depicting the attackers killing people while chanting in Tajiki language:
- Allahu Akbar (Allah is greater)!
- The unbelievers will be defeated.
- We went out (fighting) for the sake of
Wow. 4k followers in just 8 months! Thank you all for putting your trust in me.
It might sound corny, but I really do my best to put core American interests first; above all others. 🇺🇸
I’m mainly focused on
#MENA
and
#Ukraine
. What other issues do you want to hear more about?
Canada has *no* ground based air defence capability.
Canada has *no* man portable anti tank missiles.
AFAIK, Canada has *no* anti-shipping capability.
Canada has a mixed fleet of used tanks that have needed significant upgrades to be effective.
12/x
Iraq is being hit again. IAF going after the PMF or other Shia militias would be *very* significant.
The Israelis also allegedly hit an IRGC-QF meeting in Baghdad last night—which would be the first IAF strike there since they took out Saddam’s Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981.
State actors don’t “claim” covert action and intelligence activities. If they do, it’s retroactive. Years later. That’s sort of the whole point! The Beirut strike was a conventional military operation, hence IDF statement. What happened in Tehran was almost certainly an
Well, I guess I picked a hell of a weekend to take a vacation as a CT expert.
Some quick thoughts. This indeed looks like ISIS: Tajiks. Basic TTPs. Amaq claim. Though to what degree inspired/directed remains a big question mark. Russia played a big role in the D-ISIS fight too.