Lyle Goldstein @lylegoldstein Twitter profile

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

A troubling and obvious lesson that Chinese strategists take from the Russian invasion of Ukraine for a Taiwan scenario is that the firepower preparation needs to be much more intense. Zhongguo Junwang, 7Mar.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

3 months

Graphic image of Chinese amphibious attack. PLA Daily, 8 Apr, p. 12. I will be publishing a series of explainers in the coming months to outline all aspects of my assessment of a full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

China has made a thorough study of US Navy's anti-submarine system going back decades and is looking to duplicate this effort. Jianchuan Zhishi, 9.22. They have made substantial progress and are putting an enormous effort at ASW now.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

9 months

Definitely a bit disturbing to see Chinese naval strategists chewing over the details of Dec7 Pearl Harbor attack. This piece asks what if Japan had targeted US oil supplies rather than battleships. Xiandai Jianchuan, 9.2023. The chart tracks all USN oilers available 1939-1942.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Not new, I realize, but very disturbing all the same. Jianchuan Zhishi-China, 2.2023.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Notional scheme of Chinese Navy employment of two carrier groups east of the island in a Taiwan scenario. Jianchuan Zhishi, 7.22. The obvious concept would be to force USN to commit to battling these PLAN carrier formations, thus partially screening landing force far to the west.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Speaking of extra firepower, first Russian report I've seen about rumored arms transfers from China. Need to treat with caution (as article states), but says artillery being prepared in "large quantities" and cites Chinese military analyst Zhu Shufang [?] Reportyor-Rus, 26Feb.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

PLA lessons from the Ukr War: Chinese naval analysts dissect the Ukr drone attack against BSF base Sevastopol from 29 Oct 2022. Jianchuan Zhishi, 12.22. I'll be reading this assessment carefully. Some have already recognized this day as historic date in annals of naval history.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese simulation of attack on northern Taiwan. Jianchuan Zhishi-7.2020. The Taiwan counterattack on against initial lodgments on "D+3" is shown lower left. U can imagine, this does not end well for Taiwan. Having walked this ground recently, I was not impressed with defenses.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

9 months

A discussion of Chinese Admiral Ma Weiming's concept for the "super ship," which uses nuclear power for EM catapults as well as rail guns. Binggong Keji-China, 2023 (14). Is this PLAN carrier no. 4? It would be a true departure from traditional designs.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

3 months

New Chinese Navy Z-18F anti-submarine helo. Jianchuan Zhishi, 4.2024. Not a "game-changer," but quite significant nonetheless. Note the sonobuoy dispenser. CSIS "First Battle" game I think quite realistically suggests that many USN subs could be lost in a Taiwan scenario.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Not too impressed with CSIS report presentation on their Taiwan game. Among the many bloopers was when Gen. Deptula (ret.) said short legs of US fighters not a problem, because we good at aerial refueling. Hmm. I'm sure Chinese never thought of attacking refueling aircraft -- ugh

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

7 months

Chinese Navy studies Florida Strait. Dangdai Haijun, 9.2023. Examined Beijing's "Strategy for the Atlantic" and it is for real. If Taiwan situation continues on present trajectory, would not surprise me if PLAN has regular Florida patrol planned. What comes around goes around.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

21 days

Chinese strategists discuss weaknesses in US sea lift, including for moving oil and munitions. Jianchuan Zhishi, 6.2024. A congressional study recent revealed that the 60 ships of USN sea lift have average age of 45 years and are only 40% ready for mobilization.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Am pleased to share my new article in the journal Asian Security. In this article, I present evidence to show that the Chinese PLA has done the necessary intellectual spadework in order to develop a formidable amphibious warfare capability. Download here:

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

China's lessons from Ukraine: studying the failures of Russian Navy damage control aboard Moskva. Jianzai Wuqi, 6.22. To my estimate, China expects to lose hundreds of vessels in a Taiwan scenario, but is prepared to call that a necessary sacrifice for national unification.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

This Chinese graphic is one of many illustrations that PLA Navy is now focused on anti-submarine fight as critical in a Taiwan scenario. Jianchuan Zhishi, 4.22

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 month

Honored to brief on Capitol Hill this morning. Am trying to help American leaders to understand why we need more realism and restraint in U.S. national security policy. Found some receptive listeners.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

10 months

A schematic drawing of possible PLA Navy VSTOL aircraft. Jianchuan Zhishi-China, 9.2023 I've seen quite a few signs going back many years that such an aircraft might be in the pipeline.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

3 months

Notional PLA Navy carrier battle group. Jianchuan Zhishi-China, 1.2024. Chinese Navy is on the cusp of a new era with deployment of third big deck sans ski jump. When will first Chinese carrier battle group sortie into the Indian Ocean? Or the Atlantic?

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese strategists study US Navy's 'Snakehead' unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV). Bingqi, 6.22. I had not been aware that a Chinese 16m robotic submarine (XLUUV) had been revealed by satellite photos back in Sept. That's a big deal, to my estimate. The USW arms race accelerates.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

11 months

Article describes next iteration of Chinese amphibious attack ship, Type 076. Binggong Keji-China, 2023 (13). In this graphic, one sees three types of drones and three types of helicopters. The title highlights "far seas" ops, implying it is not directly linked to Taiwan issue.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

I noted China is not 100% ready for all-out war. These images illustrate the revolution in Chinese airborne ASW underway but far from complete. Binggong Keji, 2022(9). Z-9 and Ka-28 just don't cut it for hunting subs and it will be 3-5 years til PLAN has adequate Z-20F and Z-18F.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Parking can be a real headache in such a tight space. Chinese naval analysts study the myriad complexities of aircraft carrier management. Jianchuan Zhishi-China, 7.22

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese 75th Army Group works out with bridging/docking gear. Some of this equipment is new to me. Zhongguo Junwang, 18Apr

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese Marines play with lots of new toys. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 20Feb. As the US knows well, the unfortunate reality is that once you build a fine hammer, everything starts to look like a nail.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Graphic of Chinese Type 052 destroyer. Xiandai Jianchuan-China, 12.22. Am familiar with most of these weapons, but first time I'm seeing YJ-21E. This is the PLA Navy's hypersonic (mach 10) ship-to-ship missile -- a "great leap" in capability and a weapon that USN lacks.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese strategists take a close look at US invasion of Iwo Jima from the Pacific War (1945). Jianzai Wuqi, 12.22. As I demonstrated in my recent article for Asian Security, the PLA has been quite methodical in assembling historical lessons related to amphibious warfare.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

3 years

Honored to lecture at U.S. State Department on 5 Nov 2021 on the crucial subject of "U.S.-China Nuclear Rivalry". I have some new data to share and will be writing this up for publication in the next month.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

10 months

Chinese strategists state that US and its allies are transforming the "first island chain" into a "missile chain." Binggong Keji, 2023 (15). At what point does China opt for preventive or pre-emptive war? Does this scenario sound familiar?

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

China's J-16D electronic warfare aircraft. Jianzai Wuqi, 6.22. Defense News published an article about the Zhuhai show, explaining that China now has 245 J-16s (75 more than IISS estimate 2022). Note YJ-91 anti-radar missiles.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

14 days

More evidence helicopters are at very center of China's plan against Taiwan. Jianchuan Zhishi, 7.2024. Picture of PLAN Type 075 "Hainan" with embarked ground forces attack helos is quite significant. It does not mean that PLA is neglecting drone attack. They will act in concert.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

11 months

Chinese strategists assess development of Vietnam Coast Guard. Jianchuan Zhishi, 8.2023 This effort may help Hanoi to up its game in the "gray zone," but I advise caution. Beijing may look for an excuse to fight a small naval war against Vietnam intended for demonstration effect.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Lots of talk about Chinese ferries lately, but the main hammer blows against Taiwan would come through the air ... first missiles, drones and bombers, followed by transports and helos en masse. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 31July. Let's all hope cooler heads prevail in present "crisis."

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese lessons from Ukraine: Chinese strategists study Russia's use of the hypersonic Kinzhal air-launched missile. Jianchuan Zhishi-China, 12.22. Hypersonic weaponry would likely play a significant role in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese naval strategists have long admired the Russians' Cold War-era Typhoon-class strategic missile submarine [SSBN]. Jianchuan Zhishi, 7.2023. Russia retains enormous experience and skill in SSBN operations that it is likely to offer to China in present circumstances.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese marines prepare to embark aboard Type 071 LPD. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 30July. But I think we are seeing a show of force, rather than use of force. If this were a real invasion, mobilization would be much more covert. Moreover, China will not operate on US schedule.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese defense analysts continue to be obsessed with the Falklands War. Jianchuan Zhishi, 7.22 It's for good reason. That war had many lessons for special warfare, civil mobilization, carrier operations, anti-submarine operations, and yes, amphibious operations too.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese lessons from Ukraine: PLA 73rd Army practices warfare in the trenches. CCTV, Junshi Baodao, 10Jan. Not as sexy as maneuver warfare, but battles in the trenches seem to be a reality of the war in Ukraine. Have not seen this in previous Chinese exercises.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Learning the lessons of the war in Ukraine: Chinese troops work out with tactical drones. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 2June. These digital gadgets are no longer just "nice to have," but integral to military success, so it seems.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese H-6 loadouts, incl. YJ-12 ASCM. Jianchuan Zhishi, 4.23 Reading CSIS game report 'First Battle' (Jan'23). A simulated strike by H-6's launches 96 YJ-12s, and game says just 3 'leakers'. (p.32) Sound realistic to you? US needs actual realism, not "optimistic assumptions."

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese strategists look at Russian basing in the Arctic region. Jianchuan Zhishi, 12.22. I will be focusing on this area of China-Russia cooperation in the coming year. Honored to give a talk on this issue for the Canada School of Public Service on 20March.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

3 months

Chinese naval strategists study the battle of Midway (June 1942). Jianchuan Zhishi, 4.2024. In a Taiwan scenario, I expect some Chinese fleet units, especially submarines, would venture into the central and also the eastern Pacific to threaten US sea lines of communication.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Impressive laydown of Chinese anti-ship (anti-sub) missiles. Jianchuan Zhishi-China, 9.22 Am particularly eager to learn more about Y-8 and Y-11 ASW weapons, but YJ-18, and YJ-12 deservedly get the most attention.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Another reason why China unlikely to attack Taiwan in very near future is suggested by this photo from cover of PLA Daily, 2Aug. Z-9 and other current naval helos are not sufficiently capable for anti-submarine mission. China is making steady progress in ASW, but needs more time.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese naval strategists study evolving US anti-submarine warfare doctrine. Jianchuan Zhishi, 9.22. There is a keen interest in the integration of UUVs, UAVs, and other sensors/weapons. They understand that undersea may be the decisive domain.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese naval strategists monitor Russia's development of the Poseidon nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered UUV. Jianchuan Zhishi, 5.2023. I doubt the PLAN will try to duplicate this weapon, but they may wish to learn about some of its capabilities for their own purposes in USW domain.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

11 months

Chinese naval strategists discuss US carrier vulnerability. Jianzai Wuqi-China, 7.2023. Actually, the Jan 2023 CSIS "First Battle" study is surprisingly candid on this point: "Typically, the US lost both forward deployed carriers within the first turn or two." (p. 112)

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese mil TV reviews Allied operation Market Garden (Sept 1944), which was one of the largest airborne operations in history. CCTV7, Guofang Junshi, 22Feb. Now why would Chinese strategists be interested in learning the details of large-scale airborne ops?

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

PLA is in love with "air cavalry" concept. This is quite clearly a major thrust of China's solution to the Taiwan issue. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 4May. But could it work? I will address this question with some new data in a piece that will be published next week in the Diplomat.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese ground forces amphib ex. PLA Daily, 1Nov, p2. Amphib operations need not be overly complex, especially if PLA has air supremacy, as established by missile/drone/rocket artillery strikes + airborne/helo forces + overwhelming air power.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Given German tanks returning to Ukraine, it is worthwhile to recall what exactly was going on there 80 years ago. VO-Rus, 25Jan. Artyomovsk/Bachmut is exactly in the center of this map.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

title: "China Has Learned Lessons from the Russian SMO: the Operation in Taiwan Will Last No More than 48 Hours" Reportyor-Rus,7Aug. Exaggerated for sure, but some truth here. Any Chinese invasion would need to move with both speed and max surprise.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Report from China's Liaoning aircraft carrier. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 20Dec. Awaiting news on sea-trial tests of Fujian (003) carrier's electromagnetic catapults.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

"Surovikin, as the commander of the SMO, did not have the right to give orders to Long-Range Aviation, the Navy, the Main Intelligence Directorate,...the Nat Guard and other law enforcement agencies... [Appointing] Gerasimov raises the status of the [war]." Izvestiya-Rus,12Jan

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

MLRS long-range salvo fires in the Strait. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 4Aug. They might not look as impressive as the missiles shot over Taiwan, but these systems could be the game changer. This is economical firepower and implies thousands of strikes per day, ranging the whole island.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese strategists recall the China-Russia border skirmish from 1969. Binggong Keji, 2022, no.10. This tender subject is rarely discussed in both countries. Beijing and Moscow are both determined not to let the West drive a wedge between them.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

"Units of the Marine Corps of the Pacific Fleet ...advanced in the direction of Ugledar...The Ukrainian command, which as Zelensky announced the night before, is transferring reserves to Soledar, is now forced to respond to the movement of the front around Ugledar."VO-Rus,9Jan

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Anyone else find this photo a little jarring? Of course, Western media do not dare to mention any such historical links between the island and China. As a nation, history is not our forte. Maybe that's why the US can't stop blundering into other people's wars.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese naval strategists study US Transportation Command (sealift). Xiandai Jianchuan, 12.22. I recall reading a Chinese analysis that characterized US lines of communication as America's "soft rib." It is more than 5,000 miles from Hawaii to Taiwan. Long supply lines.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese evaluations of the Ukraine War: how will the PLA further develop its armored forces in light of that conflict's many lessons? Binggong Keji, 2022 (17). I will tackle these and related issues in a new series for The Diplomat... stay tuned.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

PLA logistics center profiled. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 20 Mar. China's logistics challenge in a Taiwan scenario involve rapidly moving lots of stuff a few hundred miles. The US logistics problem, by contrast, means mostly moving that stuff 5-8,000 miles. Which side is more ready?

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Looks like T-day to me. Jianchuan Zhishi, 11.22. Glad that Xi and Biden met. But such mini-summits are nowhere near what is required to solve this Gordian Knot. Hard decisions must be made, including by US leaders. XJP used term "red line" today - don't think he is bluffing.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese airborne troops exercise with flamethrower. PLA Daily, 27Feb, p8. Such weaponry could be crucial to breaking into "fortress Taiwan." Notably, PLA seems to recognize need to give airborne troops extra firepower to protect initial lodgments.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese defense analysts study the lessons of the Ukraine War. This article examines Russia's initial missile strikes against Ukrainian airfields in the earliest phase of the conflict. Jianchuan Zhishi, 6.22 Now, why would they want to explore that particular issue?

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Today’s emergent PLA Navy is very much a product of a systematic effort to understand the insights of the Falklands War precisely because that conflict -- 40 years ago -- is “the only major instance of large-scale naval combat.” Dangdai Haijun-China, 3.22

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Schematic of Chinese carrier group formation. Jianchuan Zhishi, 7.22. No surprises here really. Type 055 in the lead. Don't miss the two submarines out front, as well.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

3 months

Chinese strategists study Japanese defense upgrades, including new weaponry and position of munitions bunkers. Jianchuan Zhishi, 4.2024. US may hope that more robust alliance with Japan will create fear in China, but it also may set off explosion too.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

10 months

Really enjoyed this conversation with Bob from Nonzero -- albeit a very unpleasant subject. He gets it and I hope we'll talk again soon about global security. Thanks for the opportunity to share my thoughts!

Nonzero Podcasts

@NonzeroPods

10 months

What Would a War over Taiwan Look Like? | @lylegoldstein of @defpriorities and @WatsonInstitute and @robertwrighter discuss the sobering results of recent US-China war games, the odds of actual war breaking out, and whether smart diplomacy could avert it.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Western strategists have reified the "lift" issue for Taiwan scenario. But actually PLA may prefer low-tech small boats launched from myriad civilian vessels. With overwhelming air superiority (enabled by missile strikes), it should work. Zhongguo Junwang, 31Jan

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese article appears to game out some fleet actions involving conflict sorties by PLA Navy's carriers Liaoning and Shandong. Jianchuan Zhishi, 11.22. Notably, the article lists losses for each of the three scenarios. Losses about equal on both sides, acc. to this simulation.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

"The incident ...with a US sub 4km deep in Russian waters caused a [stir]. It can be assumed that the nuclear sub deliberately allowed itself to be discovered to demonstrate the unpreparedness of the Russian Pacific Fleet to counter the underwater threat." Reportyor-Rus,16Feb

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese mil strategists admire a 20m Finnish assault boat unloading US Marines. Bingqi Zhishi, 10.22. There is no reason that China could not rapidly build hundreds of such up-scale assault boats -- hiding them in cavernous warehouses in major ports proximate to Taiwan.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese Type 055 Cruiser and armament, including hypersonic anti-ship missile (above deck gun). Jianchuan Zhishi-China, 4.23. As a reminder, USN has no equivalent weapon. Nor does it have a supersonic anti-ship missile (on par with YJ-18 also shown at top left).

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese naval strategists examine Japan's fleet buildup in the 1930s. Jianchuan Zhishi, 12.22. Will they learn the right lessons? Hopefully they realize that dramatic naval building programs are highly destabilizing.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese PLA parachute landings right offshore, proximate to beach landing ops. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 30July. Dangerous and challenging to be sure ... have seen other instances where PLA is practicing para drops at sea, but not in this combined way.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Interesting to note Chinese strategists are looking at intelligence surrounding the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Binggong Keji-China, 2023 (13). It's a classic case of intelligence failure.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Learned a lot during my visit with some of China's top nuclear strategists at Tsinghua Univ in Beijing in early April. This was the same talk I gave to @ManagingtheAtom at Harvard back in Feb. It's not pleasant to "think the unthinkable," but it's regrettably necessary now.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese strategists study details of American aircraft carrier ops. Bingqi Zhishi, 7.22. Do you suppose the Chinese Navy intensely admires the USN? Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese Navy drone TB-001. Jianchuan Zhishi, 8.22. Nobody knows how enormous use of drones would impact a large-scale amphibious attack. But it is clear that China is putting major effort at that question. I am honored to speak on Chinese drone development at Norwich U next week.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Unique view of new Chinese Type 075 large amphibious attack ship during a landing ex. Dangdai Haijun-China, 10.22. As I've said, such vessels are useful, but probably not vital to a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese strategists study aerial drones for use in anti-submarine warfare (ASW). Xiandai Jianchuan, 11.22. This is not a new idea in China. If successful, this endeavor could have a major impact on the balance in the western Pacific.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

7 months

North Korea's boomer [SSBN]. Jianchuan Zhishi-China, 12.2023. Kim Jong Un is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Ukraine War. I expect to see steady progress in DPRK submarine capabilities over the next decade.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

4 months

Chinese naval strategists study the Soviet "bastion strategy" for protecting "boomers" [SSBNs]. Jianchuan Zhishi, 3.2023. The article explains many advantages, but also various challenges -- and some of these are rather disturbing -- putting it mildly. Will explain in my book.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese carrier deck management 101. Jianchuan Zhishi, 12.22.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

China studies the lessons of the Ukraine War -- implications for attack helo operations. Jianzai Wuqi-China, 10.22. Note: important enough for a special issue devoted to that theme.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

"China will provide Russia full-fledged lend-lease. This opinion expressed by Russian Sinologist Nikolai Vavilov on the the Soloviev program. [He said] package of Chinese military assistance to Russia will include artillery ammunition, as well as much more." Reportyor-Rus,21Mar

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese anti-submarine warfare (ASW) ex. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 22 Feb. Pics show variable-depth towed array and depth bombs. No doubt ASW is now one of the PLA Navy's very highest priorities. Indeed, the undersea campaign proximate to Taiwan could be the key to a Taiwan scenario.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese 81st Army Group rocket artillery ex. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 12Feb. Ammunition stocks and efficient/rapid reloads could be decisive in modern warfare. The PLA appears to understand this well.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Chinese Yuan-class AIP diesel sub on patrol in the northern mil region. PLA Daily, 7Feb, p1. For anyone thinking that USN anti-submarine warfare (ASW) is in good shape, you might want to read the cover story from the NYT a couple of days back (4Feb) that tells it quite plainly.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 month

Chinese strategists talk paucity of US stand-off anti-ship munitions in detail. Jianchuan Zhishi, 6.2024. Focus is on LRASM and JASSM-ER -- likely they look this potential issue for US forces out of "First Battle" report. @BrianTHart @ElbridgeColby @KaiserKuo

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Have not seen any reporting in the American MSM about Chinese hospital ship visiting Jakarta during G-20. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 16Nov. Nor did I see any mention of the historic Jakarta-Bandung high speed rail nearing completion. Guess these items do not fit the conv narrative.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

4 months

Chinese strategists study US B-61 tactical nuclear weapon. Binggong Keji, 2024 (3). How long til we meet B-61 with Chinese characteristics? I'll venture it already exists. Where is new nuclear arms race headed in Asia? How to stabilize the regional situation before it explodes?

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese ground forces exercise for amphibious assault. PLA Daily, 7June, p.4. Thinking on the Normandy analogy, I bet General Eisenhower wished he had attack helos, kamikaze drones, and access to google earth imagery too.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

10 months

Chinese strategists study Russia's new superheavy nuclear-armed ICBM, Sarmat. Binggong Keji, 2022 (20). When I asked a senior Chinese strategist in Mar 2023 why the PLA was rapidly building up its nuclear forces, he responded that China is preparing for the worst on Taiwan.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

"Their missiles will cover from Matua to Kamchatka. ... One of the tasks that they must solve is to prevent the ships of a potential enemy from entering the Sea of Okhotsk, where our submarine strategic missile carriers are to be deployed..."Izvestiya-Rus,5Dec

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

10 months

"[now] FAB-1500, also equipped with correction...modules [JDAMsky], entered service with the Russian Aerospace Forces. These ammunition, when hit, leave a crater with a diameter of about 15 meters and have an explosive radius of more than two kilometers." VO-Rus, 7Sept

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

Last graphic from that Chinese war game a few years back. Jianchuan Zhishi, 7.2020. I think these estimates are too small, but it does show basic features of anti-submarine groups north and south of Strait + carrier groups on eastern side of island. And main landing group too...

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

2 years

Chinese 74th Army Group special forces practice for amphibious assault. CCTV7, Junshi Baodao, 18July. The last image seems to show a kind of individual, rapid delivery system (like a miniature jet ski) through the surf zone. Have not seen this before.

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Lyle Goldstein

@lylegoldstein

1 year

I have emphasized impact of Falklands War on PLA doctrine, planning, force structure, etc. This article focuses on the UK use of civilian shipping during that war. Dangdai Haijun, 8.22. No doubt China's enormous civil maritime power would be major factor in a Taiwan scenario.

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