Kashyap Sriram @kashyap286 Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Kashyap Sriram

@kashyap286

14,820

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Trader/Analyst | 8+ years in finance | Trading newsletter at | Commodities, shipping, energy, crypto, tech and macro. MBA - IIT Madras

Dubai

https://t.co/xygZYzyHJO

Joined July 2013

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

2 months

After 8 years in finance, paying my dues as an analyst, value investor, newsletter writer and trader, it's time. I am officially launching my own newsletter dedicated to trading. Good, bad, or downright ugly - nothing is hidden from subscribers. Today marks the official launch.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

8 months

Study this chart of General Electric. That massive uptrend from 1981-2001 happened under Jack Welch's leadership. Business school professors eulogized him and financial journalists wrote fawning articles about his leadership style. Everyone praised him as America's greatest CEO.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

2 months

Satoshi modeled bitcoin after gold. He even used the word mining to describe the coinbase transaction (every bitcoin block begins with a miner reward). But there's a key difference: if all the gold miners ceased operations today, gold will still have value. If all the bitcoin

@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

2 months

@Convertbond Bitcoin's best days are behind it. Gold's best days are just beginning. This is the hard money rotation that libertarian crypto investors are going to miss.

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Kashyap Sriram

7 months

MicroStrategy $MSTR holds 205k #bitcoin worth $15.2 bn at $74k/coin. Let's be charitable and say the software business is worth 5x revenue, or $2.5 bn, even though it is a loss making business. The stock trades at a 71% premium. Why does this premium exist? Because arb traders

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

NVIDIA $NVDA filed its last quarter's Form 10-Q today. If you have been as surprised by the share price action and the (unaudited) published financials as I have been, this thread is for you. Let's get into it🧵

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Kashyap Sriram

7 months

The dot com bubble peaked on March 10, 2000. Is history about to repeat itself? The up tick rule rarely gets triggered even on big red days like March 5th. That's a clear sign short sellers have completely disappeared from the market. When the degen gamblers on max leverage try

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Kashyap Sriram

11 months

I’m gratified by the response I received on my previous thread highlighting Nvidia’s $NVDA accounting tricks and buyback shenanigans. Q3 was more of the same. Let's get into it. 🧵

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Kashyap Sriram

7 months

The $ARM IPO lock-up period expires on March 12th. The current float is 102.5 million shares, with SoftBank owning the remaining ~930 million shares. The company has a market cap of $143 bn, book value of $5 bn, and forward revenue of $3.2 bn. This isn't a game of valuation but

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

6 months

Ignore rates, focus on liquidity There is a reason Fed officials and MSM want you to focus on rates - it works to their advantage. The Fed gets to say it is doing its job in controlling inflation by keeping rates higher for longer. MSM reports rates are restrictive, hoping that

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

6 months

Meet Elvira Nabiullina, the bold Russian central banker who handled the 2014 Russian Ruble crisis. Putin's knee-jerk response to a collapsing ruble was capital controls and forcing Russians to sell dollars. Elvira initially went along, then did an about-face and free floated the

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

8 months

This CEO gets it. The hyper-financialization of American companies can be traced to Welch's philosophy.

@svembu

Sridhar Vembu

9 months

1/ The man who did the most damage to American industry was Jack Welch, as the CEO of GE. The Boeing engineering disaster had roots in Welch's deeply flawed management doctrines which were spread across American industry by his acolytes. This has to be understood in India too.

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Kashyap Sriram

6 months

The semiconductor bubble has burst. Netherlands based $ASML, the maker of equipment used by chip manufacturers, reported a 60% quarter-on-quarter drop in net bookings. The company expects 2024 to be a "transition year" (CEO code for results will suck) but is hopeful that demand

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

Key takeaways from the FOMC: - The Fed is in no hurry to bring inflation down to 2%. They don't even intend to achieve that goal until 2026. Powell's term ends in May 2026. Read into that what you will. - Treasury auctions are failing so the Fed announced QT taper. The

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

5 months

"Nvidia-backed CoreWeave" It's all over the news. An open secret. Yet, $NVDA still refuses to mention #CoreWeave in their quarterly filings or highlight the related-party transactions. Nvidia has: - an equity investment in CW - revenue coming from CW - expenses in the form of

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

6 months

Why does this week's move in the yen matter so much? 🧵

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

The day the SEC announces an investigation into $NVDA accounting and the stock crashes 80%, this investor will be very glad he got out. Bre-X made a lot of analysts and mining investors very, very wealthy on paper. They ignored all the red flags and believed the media spiel,

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@BarbellFi

Barbell Financial 💪🏻💰

7 months

UPDATE: Our family friend sold ALL his Nvidia stock He fully paid off his mortgage balance with the money His largest monthly expense has been eliminated in retirement And now he’s designing a pool to be installed for him to enjoy 😎 What do you guys think about his choices?

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

SoundHound AI $SOUN has a market cap of $2.6 Billion, 2023 revenue of $45.87 mn, net loss of $89 mn, and book value of $28.17 mn. The company has been around since 2005. This stock can collapse 99% and still be overvalued. It amazes me investors can chase stocks like this with

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

The $NVDA bubble appears to have been cleverly orchestrated to fool algos trading off headlines, suck in unwary traders, and create massive exit liquidity for significant shareholders. John Law couldn't have done this any better. I've never felt better about my short position.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

$NVDA CFO Colette Kress sold $2.3 mn worth of stock on Monday. This is on top of the $2.5 mn sold on May 30. Those were the only two sales this year. I must admit, I think she's as good as Nancy Pelosi in her market timing.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

The company released results after the close on 24th. Make of it what you will. I have been in finance since 2016 and I've analyzed thousands of companies. I've literally never seen financial shenanigans on this scale by a trillion dollar company. Heck, nobody has!

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

Jen-Hsun "A New Computing Era Has Begun" Huang exercised a big wad of stock options on Friday and immediately proceeded to cash out for approx. $117.2 million. Nothing to see here folks.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

5 months

@DarioCpx A satirical version of Nvidia's $NVDA business plan: We sell GPUs to data center customers, booking sales in the P&L and accounts receivables on the balance sheet. We then turn around and commit to purchasing data center capacity from said customers, and agree to buyback "sold"

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

2 months

A lot of smart hedge fund managers saw the GFC coming from a mile away. Some shorted homebuilders too early, and got squeezed out. Some were right on time shorting the banks, and made their nut when the crisis hit. Then the govt stepped in and banned short selling. Just like

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

This clears up two mysteries. Costs didn't rise commensurate with revenue because the revenue isn't hard dollars but an accounting fiction. And cash didn't come in because from the clients' side, the services haven't been rendered yet and the bill isn't due.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

5 months

FinTwit is more excited over copper, cocoa, $GME and bitcoin than $NVDA, which reports earnings this week. 4 quarters ago, Nvidia's shares were manipulated after hours, rising 25% in 15 mins, kick starting the AI bubble. With Druckenmiller talking about his Nvidia stock sale,

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

@AvivaKlompas @UCLA Imagine just for a moment what it's like to be a Palestinian student in Palestine.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

First, what's up with the wild revenue beat ($13.51 bn reported vs $11 bn forecast)? And how did the company achieve this without a corresponding increase in cost?

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

To what avail? These financial shenanigans might be legal, but one has to wonder what $NVDA gets out of it. Probably it was forced to do so by significant shareholders looking for exit liquidity.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

Buffet's selling, falling out of the Mag 7, and the failure of Apple Vison Pro, $AAPL should see a trendline break soon.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

6 months

@PRSundar64 18% revenue tax, 10% TDS on perks, 30% income tax, 20% TDS on foreign currency, 1% turnover tax on crypto, 30% flat tax on crypto gains with no offsets for losses. To add insult to injury, there's a tax on tax paid if you paid too much in tax. And people wonder why so many

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

Here are the top criticisms I've seen against the $NVDA short thesis. Putting up my notes here to aid in the discussion: 1. "This is just accrual accounting" No shit, every listed company follows accrual accounting. If you don't want to come into the kitchen to see how the

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

From July 31 to Aug 24, the ONLY time shares traded at $499 was on Aug 24, when it traded as high as $520 pre-market. For the company to average that price, all the buying must have been concentrated on August 24.

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Kashyap Sriram

2 months

@Convertbond Bitcoin's best days are behind it. Gold's best days are just beginning. This is the hard money rotation that libertarian crypto investors are going to miss.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

Super Micro $SMCI announced a secondary offering of 2 million shares at $875/sh last week. Goldman Sachs was chosen as sole underwriter and sole book-running manager for the offering. Goldman initiated coverage with a neutral rating and $941 price target. JPM initiated coverage

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

8 months

In December 2023, $SMCI raised $524 million at $262/share to fund its operating cash shortfall. It was a Wall Street feeding frenzy, with J.P. Morgan, BofA Securities and Goldman Sachs acting as lead book runners. Usually, sell-side analysts are tapped to initiate coverage and

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

3 months

@pvsubramanyam c) Stay out of India for 183 days every tax year. Earn less than 14 lakhs in India sourced income.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

"Go woke, go broke" $GOOG

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

However, license and services revenue is recognized as and when the company incurs its cost. The huge jump in revenue is almost entirely data center driven. Because that's classified as a service, the company recognizes revenue regardless of the contract's payment terms.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

"Across nearly 330 mutual funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 or a similar index, only 15% held an above-index weight in Nvidia, according to a Morningstar analysis of the funds' most recent regulatory filings. Among those funds that held a below-average weight in Nvidia, 85%

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

Unsurprisingly, that's exactly what we see. Receivables went up from $4080 mn to $7066 mn. From Q1 to Q2, receivables went up by $2986 mn as revenues increased by $6315 mn. That's 73% growth in receivables for 88% growth in "revenues".

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

11 months

Rather than re-hashing the previous arguments, which the bulls will willfully ignore and the skeptics already know, I’ll leave you with 8 points to ponder. (1) If demand is so strong the product is flying off the shelves, why is the company unable to collect cash from customers?

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

CPAs: this is legal Algo traders: don't care until this is a Bloomberg headline CTAs: the trend is up so long $NVDA Institutions: Rosenblatt Securities has a $1100 price target. Stock is cheap Mutual Funds: we're penalized by Morningstar for being underweight, so buy more now

@JG_Nuke

Nobody Special

1 year

Who is Coreweave and where is their money coming from? Nobody is asking!🧐 #Coreweave #Nvidia $NVDA #Magnetar

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

10 months

@unusual_whales Banks are repossessing homes as defaults rise due to high interest rates, then turning around and lending money to PE firms to buy those homes, at a much lower interest rate. The middle class doesn't stand a chance.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

With @KerrisdaleCap turning the tide, $MSTR bulls are going to find out just how quickly overvalued stocks can plummet. MicroStrategy is a bitcoin closed ended fund with no clear exit strategy, and as such should trade at a discount to NAV. The CEO has been unloading his share

@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

MicroStrategy $MSTR holds 205k #bitcoin worth $15.2 bn at $74k/coin. Let's be charitable and say the software business is worth 5x revenue, or $2.5 bn, even though it is a loss making business. The stock trades at a 71% premium. Why does this premium exist? Because arb traders

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

Maybe I'm reading too much into it? It could just be normal buyback activity after all. Well then, is this also normal? "From July 31, 2023 through August 24, 2023, we repurchased 2 million shares for $998 million ($499 per share avg) pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan".

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

To answer these questions, we need to understand the company's revenue recognition policy. The highlighted part, taken from last year's Form 10-K, is key. $NVDA recognizes revenue from product sales only after the product has been shipped (transfer of control).

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

When revenue is booked but the payment has not been received from the client, the company records this as 'accounts receivable' on the balance sheet. If my hypothesis is correct, there should be a jump in receivables correlating with the revenue increase.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

2 months

@perspiringsage The more miners unplug, the more concentrated the hash power in the remaining mining pools. Think it through, may take you a few years to deprogram and start thinking straight.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

total revenue for the second quarter and first half of fiscal year 2023”. 39% of Q2 revenue and 32% of first half revenue came from just two customers, of which one is a distributor. In effect, the company pulled forward demand from future quarters. Not to mention the

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

And here again, we can find clues if we dig into the 10-Q. Specifically, the very weird approach to share buyback. After no buybacks in Q1, the company went on a rampage, vacuuming up supply and fueling the short squeeze that began after its Q1 earnings release.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

8 months

The bulls say Mag 7/AI is not in a bubble until it surpasses the dot-com peak. Reminds me of a Peter Lynch quote about the Nikkei bubble: "How do you know that dog is a million dollar dog? Because you can exchange it for two $500k cats." That aside, couple of things jump out

@Marlin_Capital

David Marlin

@Marlin_Capital

8 months

Lots of talk about a bubble in AI/Mag 7... At this point, valuations at the top are no where near as frothy as they were at the height of the Dot Com Bubble. The 5 largest stocks traded at 43x Fwd PE in March ‘00, a 59% premium to the Mag 7’s current multiple of 27x. $MSFT

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

There's another red flag here, and that's the concentration of revenue. “Our estimated Compute & Networking end customer demand is concentrated among several large CSPs and consumer internet companies. Most of these large companies do not purchase directly from us but often

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

purchase through multiple system integrators, distributors, and channel partners. We expect this concentration trend will continue”. The company isn't kidding when it mentions this as a risk factor.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

6 months

$NVDA reported $47.5 billion in data center revenue in FY24, a 217% yoy increase. Assume that growth continues, but be conservative and project a "mere" 100% increase and ka-boom - you have a $95 billion forecast for data center alone, or ~$110 bn in total revenue. To put that

@Beth_Kindig

Beth Kindig

6 months

Nvidia $NVDA may generate more data center revenue this year than in the past six years combined. Data center revenue could double to $95 billion in FY25, compared to $87.7 billion in revenue from FY18 through FY24.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

concentration risk as well. Then there's the very creative "sale" of goods with the express intent of inflating revenues.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

Banks started buying Treasuries again in Nov 2023, when the Fed made it clear the easing cycle had begun. But they still need the rate cuts in order to take duration risk, which is why the Fed will cut no matter what inflation does. Incidentally, the last time the US had a tight

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@ces921

Craig Shapiro

7 months

Issuing more t-bills at an accelerating pace is a precondition to becoming a banana republic. This is the type of thing you see emerging markets do, not the issuer of the world's reserve currency and neutral reserve asset. If you believe that the Fed's primary goal is smooth

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

8 months

Super Micro $SMCI is issuing convertible debt for $1.5 billion, with a twist - the offering also has options that allow everyone involved to speculate on the stock price. Move over 0dte options, we have a new king.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

11 months

Over the last 10 quarters, revenue has increased by $12.46 billion while accounts receivable has increased by $5.28 billion. 42.4% of the incremental revenue has not (yet) translated into actual cash received from customers.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

$TSLA is now a consensus short, so it's all about finding a good entry.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

2 years

$META shareholders are in for a treat. Zuck wants to issue 425 million additional shares as a treat to employees, representing 16% equity dilution. Hey, if you don't mind being down 60%, surely more dilution won't make you mad. Go Zuck!

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

$NVDA is a bargain at a 2024 forward PE of just 28. So $60 bn in sales and $44 bn in net income? You can't make this stuff up.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

2 months

Super Micro $SMCI delays filing its annual report, which is code for they couldn't get their auditors to sign off on a blatant accounting fraud. You could have seen this coming a year ago, but then you'd have missed the stock manipulation on the way up and the wild ride on the

@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

Super Micro Computer $SMCI, a company infamous for accounting fraud and famous as an AI darling (6.5x book, 1.8x sales, 20x earnings) is mean reverting. If the P&L multiples look good, just remember that this company was charged by the SEC in 2020 for failure in internal

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

9 months

@DarioCpx Reason 2. Take media attention away from the fact that Citigroup is technically insolvent.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

2 months

@sunny051488 If nukes went off, everyone would rush to own gold. Try again.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

8 months

@thatdna GE beat Westinghouse in their core business. That's not the point. Financial engineering can eclipse superior engineering.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

And the growth in receivables would have been even higher if not for a $1.25 bn pre-payment. Adjusting for that prepayment, receivables would have grown 104%.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

8 months

@RichaChadha Blame the victim. Of course.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

Bitcoin was at $64k in April 2021. If you HODL'ed all the way until now, all you have to show for it is a measly 0% return over 3 years. If you HODL'ed any altcoins, you're still not at breakeven. But the way the crypto permabulls are taking victory laps on Twitter, you would

@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

7 months

And still half of Tradfi fades the biggest macro trend of all time, in the best performing asset class of all time, in the shortest period of time. And still they dont realise that the drawdowns are what creates the ludicrous opportunities, and that all it takes is to buy and

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

3 months

@saifedean @maxkeiser Official figures on homicides in El Salvador are about as real as the Soviet Union's potato production statistics.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

8 months

@ezsilkwood To use a forest fire analogy, we've had heavy rains since 2008 (QE) resulting in too much vegetation (zombie companies kept alive on ZIRP). The dry spell in 2022-23 turned much of it into kindling, but the big shrubs are still green and blocking the sun. The conditions are ripe

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

8 months

GMO's quarterly letter absolutely nails it. If you're an active manager benchmarked to the S&P 500 and have no strong opinion on $AAPL, you either hold the 7% weighting the stock has in the index, or you'll underperform. If you want to run a diversified portfolio, there's no way

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

4 months

@PRSundar64 I recently flew Dubai <-> Trichy on Air India Express and you're right, there was never an announcement in Tamil. Even though 100% of the passengers were Tamilians.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

11 months

Said differently, credit to customers equals 42 days of sales in the most recent quarter. Why such generous credit terms at a time of peak demand? License and development arrangements, cloud services, and support revenues are received upfront and booked over the contract term.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

“A large cloud service provider, or CSP, which primarily purchases indirectly through multiple system integrators and distributors, is estimated to represent approximately 22% and 19% of total revenue for the second quarter ($2971.54 million) and first half ($3932.81 million) of

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

This is a long rant with two key claims: 1. Citrini claims that CoreWeave is an entity controlled by $NVDA and is being used by NVDA to pick winners and losers among NVDA clients 2. If (1) is true, NVDA isn't cooking the books even though the company is selling to a related

@Citrini7

Citrini

1 year

@SamanthaLaDuc @JerrBearr @thatgirltrader @GraphFinancials There is just a severe lack of understanding about the incentives here from most who wish to peddle this narrative. Those who are accusing Jensen of fraud should at least take the time to understand the business model. How would you like it if someone accused you of fraud without

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

6 months

“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.” - Citigroup CEO in July 2007. The Fed is about to spike the punch bowl and leave a bag of crack by the door. The

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

According to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), Q2 revenue for the industry was down 17.3% yoy. Not that such things matter to investors piling into $SMH and $SOXX

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

@BigPoppaSwan @disclosetv Maybe stop sending warships to conflict zones and airdrop food and water instead?

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

2 months

Softbank has distorted global markets for over a decade, fueling a bubble in unprofitable tech and leading an entire generation of entrepreneurs into believing that the way to success is feeding at the VC trough rather than bootstrapping a company and growing through cash flow.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

6 months

Enter Masa Son and SoftBank. They borrowed cheap and led private equity investments in tech, just as software started to eat the world.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

fiscal year 2024, respectively, and was attributable to our Compute & Networking segment”. This customer sure loaded up on NVDA products, working up from $961.27 million in Q1 to $2971.54 million in Q2, an increase of 209% q-o-q.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

5 months

SoftBank results were worse than expected, but the stock is holding up above the 100 DMA, no doubt helped by $ARM's timely announcement of an AI chip. SoftBank's implosion is like watching a train wreck in slow motion. You know the outcome, but you just don't know how many

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

2 years

@AlderLaneEggs is either dumb or deliberately trying to manipulate (for lack of a better word) $SI shares. Silvergate Capital is a bank holding company operating a federally regulated banking institution. As per Q3 Form 10-Q, their total assets amount to $15.5 billion,

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Kashyap Sriram

1 year

“One data center distributor customer represented approximately 17% and 13% of total revenue for the second quarter and first half of fiscal year 2024, respectively, and was attributable to the Compute & Networking segment. There were no customers with 10% or more of

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

5 months

Deep State backed spyware provider Palantir $PLTR is priced at 20x sales. The stock can get cut in half and still be overvalued.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

Nvidia $NVDA was always a momentum trade. That momentum is now all gone. Note the absolute collapse in RSI. Price to follow. Other tech stocks exhibit a similar pattern. But puts are still damn cheap. That won't last long.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

2 months

This is still the best fund letter of all time. Life goals.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

6 months

Meanwhile, the Treasury keeps draining the RRPs to fund the runaway deficit. Federal debt now stands at $34.65 trillion. That's $103k per US citizen. Maybe less if you count all the illegal immigrants who will magically become citizens in time for the polls.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

4 months

@mikealfred $MARA is trying to grab attention by latching on to #Kaspa , the same way Semler Scientific tried to grab attention by latching on to #Bitcoin . The real winner here is Kaspa, which is now too big to ignore. Can't wait for the big exchanges to start listing it, and see it follow

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

9 months

The $NVDA CoreWeave story keeps bringing to mind WireCard's India acquisition. WireCard bought an obscure ticketing company based in my hometown, one that almost no one has heard of, for a ridiculous headline price tag of EUR 300 million. Why? No one knows. The conjecture is they

@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

CoreWeave founders have cashed out, sticking Fidelity and JPM wealth clients with the losses from the unravelling of their exit scam. The sell-side analysts who helped hype the stock will get a big fat Christmas bonus for their efforts.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

11 months

My latest article with my thoughts on the current macro situation and providing an explanation for the liquidity that has fueled this year's bubbles in AI and crypto. Grab your morning coffee and get into it. (This was too long for a Twitter thread, link below in comments).

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

Broadcom $AVGO doesn't satisfy my criteria but VMware shareholders (Michael Dell and other insiders owned 40% of VMware) taking profits should see the stock drop. The lackluster response to earnings indicates this might already be underway...

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

@Cryptoking @KimDotcom When were US gold reserves last audited? They are long gone.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

6 months

The smart money has been de-levering all week. They know how this story ends and are hunkering for the financial storm. Maybe you should too. (I've simplified a complex topic, so of course there will be loose ends. No apologies for that).

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Kashyap Sriram

2 months

We haven't seen anything yet. Just wait until investors figure out $NVDA has committed accounting fraud by round tripping revenue through SPV-like structures. That's when the real fireworks start.

@KobeissiLetter

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

2 months

What just happened to Nvidia? Yesterday, Nvidia, $NVDA, broke the all time record for most market cap added by a stock in a single day, adding +$330 billion. Today, the stock has erased ~$270 billion of market cap since its high seen this morning. That's a $600 BILLION swing

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

2 months

Bitcoiners are like "if all the miners are offline, I'll just run a miner."

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

11 months

(2) Revenue concentration 28% of last quarter revenue and 27% of last 9 months revenue is attributable to two end customers. 39% of Q2 revenue and 32% of first half revenue came from just two customers, of which one is a distributor.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

11 months

And if you thought CoreWeave was the only self-dealing, here's an even more bizarre one. Nvidia is round tripping revenue with zero disclosure.

@JG_Nuke

Nobody Special

1 year

Why did a farm animal welfare charity just buy $500M worth of Nvidia chips?🧐 $NVDA

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Kashyap Sriram

6 months

First off, banks are lending again. Note how borrowing started to take off just after the Nov FOMC, when the Fed hinted at changes to the SEP.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

The rejection candle in $AMD is tempting, but shorting here would be a YOLO trade. Setting a stop at a level the company has never traded at is discomforting.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

7 months

$ADBE is no longer a part of the AI cool kids club.

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

Super Micro Computer $SMCI is a US/Taiwan based provider of high performance server and storage solutions. Incorporated in 1993 (listed in 2007), the company has been profitable every single year. I am short the stock. 🧵

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@kashyap286

Kashyap Sriram

1 year

@mikeyjoeoshea Thank you! :-)

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