Rob Carver @investingidiocy Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

18,898

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375

Following

279

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8,635

Statuses

Overfit for the LOLs: Systematic trader, author^4, blogger, lecturer @QMUL , advisor @stylus .digital, ex-HF & IB, leftie, quant, pythonista, Dad^3, sailor & MAMIL

Chelmsford, East

https://t.co/GScQSFJBXd

Joined January 2013

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

5 months

Blackthorne: We use an AI algo to find features in the data, and then we use KNN to fit the spline between feature and future risk adjusted returns, then a neural network to allocate weights across features optimising the omega ratio. Mariko: The anjin is overfitting.

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@NaderNaderklf

@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 years

Although the government's advice has U-turned and flip flopped, Matt Lucas' advice from way back in May is still correct.

@RealMattLucas

Matt Lucas HQ

4 years

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

Authors copies have landed

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

Coming out in April 2023 Pre-order is now available

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

We have a cover. And a website.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

awesome if you haven't already seen

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GitHub - paperswithbacktest/awesome-systematic-trading: A curated list of awesome libraries,...

A curated list of awesome libraries, packages, strategies, books, blogs, tutorials for systematic trading. - paperswithbacktest/awesome-systematic-trading

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

10 months

For every 10 likes... you know the drill >give me an example report of statistics about a trading system backtest

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

5 months

Fun thing you can do is see my trade history or positions or whatever in github. Go to Then select a date. Click on <> to browse the commit. Click on trade report or risk report to see positions.

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Commits · robcarver17/reports

Automatically generated reports and diagnostics of interest to futures traders - Commits · robcarver17/reports

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

A friend of mine got a pay rise after hinting she was interviewing at an HFT shop. She was Virtu signalling.

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

When I started in IB was massively hung up on how many screens I had, as it was a clear status symbol. Now I realise that the CEO had only 1 screen and the guy with the most screens in the entire building was the security guard.

@PolemicTMM

Polemic Paine

2 years

@jposhaughnessy Never understood the assumptive that more screens = better trader. If you need a billion screens it's to watch correlated markets. If you need to watch correlated markets then build an algo to spot the deviations for you. Multiscreens=retrofit spoiler on your family hatchback

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

5 years

People who describe market moves in points should be shot. Immediately. I have no idea if 900 points on some random index is a lot. Percentages at a minimum please, and when I am world-king moves will have to be described as multiples of recent daily standard deviations.

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

5 years

I finished my series on the three fundamental skills of trading: 1 Manging risk with stop losses 2 Position sizing 3 How fast to trade

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

3 years

As it's my birthday, and as it's now vaguely stable, it seems fitting to release pysystemtrade as version 1.0

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GitHub - robcarver17/pysystemtrade: Systematic Trading in python

Systematic Trading in python. Contribute to robcarver17/pysystemtrade development by creating an account on GitHub.

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

My first article in the FT. No, OK it's not in the paper edition. Alright, it's alphaville, not the 'proper' FT. Honestly, let me enjoy the moment.

@FTAlphaville

FT Alphaville

2 years

CTAs are minnows, not whales

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

@yawaramin You don't code until sunset then you're so desperate to code you code too much far too quickly in a really rich expressive language, probably LISP related, and end up feeling slightly sick.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

3 years

@WifeyAlpha You could be right, but I can't help thinking that the guy who stood against him in the last election didn't have a great record of standing up to Putin...

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 years

Advice for aspiring quant traders

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

Please join me for a minutes silence today at 11.55am when the last ever LIBOR rate is published. And remember all those who have been unfairly hounded, prosecuted and jailed for doing their job.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 months

Microsoft is not enterprise quality software. I woud never run a trading system on them. #linux

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

@d_feldman

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

11 months

Well it's time for one of my periodic discretionary macro calls (last one was during COVID). I'm calling the top of the rate cycle. Today I've increased my risk allocation in bonds from 5% to around to 16.5%...

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

New book released (actually it's tommorrow, but I won't have time to tweet it then)

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

This annoyed me so much I actually spent a couple of hours doing it properly

@verdadcap

Dan Rasmussen

1 year

CAPM doesn't work within asset classes, but it does do a decent job of explaining cross-asset class returns. ?

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

Nothing amuses/saddens me more than seeing systematic HF managers pontificate on market movements and activity (an unfortunate necessity for marketing)...they literally have a computer for forecasting, so why should they know any more than the next person with a BB terminal?

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

Best seller here #2 in online trading. Let's push it over the top people! @harrimanhouse

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 years

The US Economy discovers geometric returns: 31% fall and then a 33% rise in GDP is not a 2% net rise, but a ~8.3% fall.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

2022 YTD +33.5% futures trading account (trend following PLUS other stuff, *with vol targeting*) MSCI World $ total return -13% Global Bonds -12%

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

The art of keeping it simple, by JPMorgan’s Jan Loeys ... brilliant. If anyone has the original research piece, please PM it to me.

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The art of keeping it simple, by JPMorgan’s Jan Loeys

“Our industry does seem to love complexity and to abhor simplicity”

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

No log scale and no equalisation of vol..... <bangs head against wall>

@MebFaber

Meb Faber

2 years

Astonishing to me that the vast majority of investors have zero trend following allocation. "But Meb, there's just not any managers with a long history..." Here's DUNN back to 1985...printed +60% in 2022! via @rcmAlts database

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

Rob, surely you have something rude to say about the FTX guy? It happens I do:

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

@alexdowsett You hit the front for your turn. After 5 minutes you elbow flick. Nothing. You wave your arm aggressively, turn and give your team a hard stare. Nobody moves. An hour later, battered and broken, a mere shell of a man, you are finally relieved and fall sideways into the gutter.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 years

Quick thread on a very common but very stupid thing to do: Adding to profitable positions, because you're now betting with "house money".

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 months

@d_feldman I'm not an architect but it's my understanding that internal walls in US houses are made of wood. In the UK we use bricks. So you need a lot more mesh units. Personally I wish I had cabled my house when we had it renovated.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

3 years

In my most recent blogpost, I discuss the killing and brainwashing of quant traders (Think I've finally got the hang of this clickbait thing)

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

3 months

@TheJeditor Set of precision screwdrivers missing the one you actually want. A hammer to ensure the draw is nice and heavy and will break entirely. Curtain hooks even though you only have blinds now. The base unit of an electric toothbrush you had 3 house moves ago.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

5 years

@MarkDiStef One of the best things about strict gun control is people are forced to use food instead. I look forward to similar 'attacks' by the "Croissant Christians", "Jam on toast Jew", and "Strudel Sikh". Do Buddhists eat Bacon? If not, is it stil okay to hit a fascist with a bacon roll?

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

7 years

@saeedamenfx To recap: Rule #1 : We don't talk about Fight Club Rule #2 : .... or The Wolf of Wall Street And Rule #3 : We don't troll @nntaleb

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

@choffstein flirting with models podcast is the best properly finance podcast out there. That is all.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 years

A systematic strategy fitted on a single data point...

@sentimentrader

SentimenTrader

@sentimentrader

4 years

The Nasdaq 100 rallied more than 2% intraday to set an all-time high, then reversed to close down by more than 1%. It's done that twice. Today was one. March 7, 2000 was the other.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

You had several thousand choices of futures price pairs and this is the best you could do? Come on if you are going to data mine, do it properly

@QuantifiedStrat

Quantified Strategies

@QuantifiedStrat

1 year

Can the #lumber / #gold ratio be a leading indicator for #stocks ? We made a strategy that returned 11.8% annually by rotating between stocks and bonds:

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

3 years

Working with matplotlib: 1. Google how to do plot 2. Find strange incantation on stack exchange 3. Check that strange incantation works 4. Wrap in function 5. Relax until you need another type of plot.

@ryxcommar

Senior PowerPoint Engineer

3 years

Yes I complain about the Matplotlib API. No I do not want to learn another charting library with a better API. We exist and we are valid.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

I don't normally brag about endorsements but to get one from Euan is pretty dammn cool...

@SinclairEuan

Euan Sinclair

2 years

I really like this book. accessible but not over-simplistic. It shows again that profitable trading ideas are out there

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

I think Sunak genuinely thinks that people are homeless through choice and if they would just get a job as a hedge fund manager like he did they'd be fine.

@AdamBienkov

Adam Bienkov

2 years

Sunak asks a homeless man in a homeless shelter whether he "works in business", then proceeds to talk about the financial services industry. Utterly bizarre

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

One reason I don't trade crypto (except CME futures) is I don't understand a single word of this thread and it would seem a bit stupid to be potentially on the other side of the tabke from this guy.

@beniduboss

ilikeblocks

2 years

As MGNR used to say, "discretionary traders should only pick up free money a few times per year and stay flat the rest of the time." This week there was quite a bit of free money laying around Little thread about an interesting trade I took this week 1/x

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

Sneak preview from new book.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

@yawaramin At the end of the lunar month you get to spend the whole day programming in whatever language you like, well in theory, mostly its the language your mother likes best. 'But mum I only use object oriented languages!' 'Shut up and write your FORTRAN. Who wants more punched cards?'

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 years

I have $1000. If BTC doubles I will have $1000. If it halves I will have $1000. This is not the payoff profile of a short call.

@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

4 years

If you don't yet own bitcoin, you are short upside calls without knowing it. #BITCOIN

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

5 months

I'd rather live in almost any country in Europe than in the US. If that's success you can keep it.

@levelsio

@levelsio

5 months

The most concerning part about this is that most Europeans don't realize how stagnant Europe has now become Europeans are literally blue-pilled and are mostly concerned with climate change, immigration and the Ukraine war Nobody in Europe is thinking why increasingly everything

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

11 months

It was fun! Slides

Thalesians_November_2023_Rob Carver.pdf

drive.google.com

@thalesians

The Thalesians

11 months

Full house at the @thalesians seminar today hosted by @GRESEARCHjobs . Rob Carver @investingidiocy is presenting his latest book on #futurestrading . Also sponsored by @kxsystems @turnleafan @PacktPub

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

@quant_arb @JamesCBishop If you have even a tiny amount of respect for the work I do and mostly put out for free, delete this tweet.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

3 years

I went short BTC this morning, which means I'm now in the happy position where my algorithmic trading system agrees with my personal value system.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

apparently history began in 2012

@Swordfishv44183

Swordfish Trading

@Swordfishv44183

1 year

The Japanese Yield curve is now the steepest in history. This is also the fastest move in the Japanese yield curve's history. A BOJ pivot is coming. The world isn't ready.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 years

Sad day

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

8 months

As the father of a near 18 year old boy, I can confirm that he has no interest in 'Getting a girlfriend' as a joint father-son activity.

@sweatystartup

Nick Huber

8 months

All my dad friends with 10-18 year old sons can’t get them to do anything with them. Want to go camping? Nope. Want to go on a hike? Nope. Want to ride bikes? Nope. Want a girlfriend? Nope. Want to get your license? Nope. They’re all addicted to video games.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

I'm going to do this every day.

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

@quant_arb @JamesCBishop If you like the book why not encourage people to buy it rather than stealing from me?

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

6 months

@xmgnr Advantage of trading systematically is it gives you more time to do podcasts

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 years

Thread on which futures contract to trade, seems relevant given what just happened in Oil.

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

Typesetting has begun....

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

5 years

Daughter: I need help with my maths homework Me (smug): Of course! What is it? Algebra, statistics, probability... Daughter (quietly): Geometry Me: Actually I just remembered I have to wash my hair...

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

3 months

@quantymacro I used to have a strategy like that, but I stupidly sold it. Mine also had a nice right tail, once a year I got a really big return. But I have heard of people running this who have experienced it stopping working quite unexpectedly so be careful.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

You can tell a lot about a book from it's index. Here's a snapshot from the new work (only a few months to go!)

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

I am down 4% in my trading account today but I would happily pay that for the joy of seeing the entire crypto universe and meme stock universe imploding.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

Run on the Bank of England?

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

I'm on TTU this weekend. Guess what I plan to talk about? My latest blog post, perhaps? "Vol targeting: A CA(g)R race" [Lights blue touchpaper and runs away]

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

Been off this 'x' thing as on holiday but here's a short thread on fitting. Suppose we have some exogenous factor (like momentum) that predicts (we hope) risk adjusted return. So we need a response function to map from the factor to a forecasted risk adjusted return -> position.

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 years

Chart Crime Econometrics edition

@AmihaiGlazer

Amihai Glazer

4 years

States where physicians are highly paid have lower Covid-19 mortality per capita.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

6 years

I just noticed that surpassed 1 million page views in the last few days. Okay, at least half of those were just me or members of my immediate family. But to the rest of you, thanks.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 years

most people 'using machine learning' actually have one 22 year old kid with a bootlegged copy of Matlab and a couple of half remembered college classes in econometrics they were too hungover to concentrate in.

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Greensill's downfall is a warning to European fintechs

Hundreds of fintechs claim to use AI and machine learning. But Greensill's fallout has shed doubt on what's really beneath the bonnet.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

5 months

It's 5 letters

@GestaltU

Adam Butler

5 months

Many investors think 'Carry' is a four-letter word.🤬 They couldn't be more wrong.🫠 Diversified carry is the OG risk premium strategy. 💪 NEW PAPER: Managed Futures Carry: A Practitioner's Guide Links below: 👇

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

Kwasi Kwarteng worked in finance but obviously didn't learn anything useful. If he'd ever had to hedge a 30 year Sterling barrier swaption with 2 hours to expiry then we wouldn't be in this mess.

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 years

I recommend this book

@ReformedTrader

Darren 🥚🐣🕊️

@ReformedTrader

4 years

1/ Flash Crash: A Trading Savant, a Global Manhunt, and the Most Mysterious Market Crash in History (Liam Vaughan) "It is the story of a new financial elite and what happens when one man refuses to accept the cards he is dealt and decides to fight back."

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

So Ethereum is moving to proof of stake whereby you get paid a yield to validate transactions. And the yield is somewhere north of 4%. So it costs 4% a year to run the network. This is many, many orders of magnitude higher than the cost of running the 'fiat' banking system :-)

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

Inequality reduces growth because rich people have a lower propensity to consume. This is economics 001 and literally why trickle down is nonsense.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

RIP Harry

@firoozye

Objectively Random

1 year

Harry Markowitz: Harry Markowitz, Nobel-winning pioneer of modern portfolio theory, dies at 95 - The Economic Times

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

7 years

I've just pushed a major upgrade to my open source python backtester, psystemtrade so you can: getting data from , storing in and , and allowing back-adjustment of futures prices. Read:

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GitHub - man-group/arctic: High performance datastore for time series and tick data

High performance datastore for time series and tick data - GitHub - man-group/arctic: High performance datastore for time series and tick data

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

3 years

The best thing about trading futures is the opportunity for terrible puns. Like the lack of liquidity in milk futures. And with only a few days to expiry I will have to do my cheese roll. Can anyone think of anything worse?

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

I used to have a hard time wrapping my mind around recursive functions. Recently, though, I learned three characteristics of recursion that makes these functions easy to understand.

@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

I used to have a hard time wrapping my mind around recursive functions. Recently, though, I learned three characteristics of recursion that makes these functions easy to understand.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

@bankofengland I was obviously joking but it's very cool to have a reply from the horses mouth!

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

3 years

As of 11am GMT, YTD global equities -12.5% Futures trading account (momentum+carry) +15%

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

5 years

For anyone who thinks stop losses are a panacea, my shares in GOG.LSE are down 19% on the open, well below my stop, but I'm still holding because there is literally nothing on the bid.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

7 years

They're here....

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

7 months

Optimal hedge ratio is 1.2 bitcoin (assuming current price of 60k) which guarantees 28k whatever happens (BTC over 100 or hits zero). And your hedge ratio wouldn't depend on your 'view' but on the delta of the option you're trying to hedge.

@grufityreports

Grufity.com

@grufityreports

7 months

The Bitcoin Bet @profplum99 payout profile for the 5:1 bitcoin bet with @PeterMcCormack Optimal hedge for a guaranteed Zero loss is at 0.53 Bitcoin. One can buy more or less bitcoin based on your bias of future bitcoin price move.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

5 years

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

3 years

In my experience there are a lot of people who waste time on 'learning' the combination of self help nonsense and meaningless waffle that is 99% of current published non fiction and 99.9% of youtube. They would be better off spending 10% of the time reading five decent textbooks.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

7 months

I throw everything at my optimisation including the kitchen sink

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@investingidiocy

Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

3 years

Recording christmas episode with @TopTradersLive @RichB118 @moritzseibert @rjparkerjr09 @RichB118

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

6 months

My son did but you locked his account for an api violation so maybe others shouldn't try

@eldsjal

Daniel Ek

6 months

I love seeing the creative ways people use Spotify. Does anyone have an unusual use case you think others should try?

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

8 months

Still banging on about the Kelly criteria

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

7 months

The whole target uni thing is total HR laziness to avoid screening too many applicants. "We want more diverse applicants, but everyone has to have done a Phd in one of 3 subjects at one of these 6 universities before even being considered" Disclosure: BA Manchester, Msc Birkbeck

@PtrPomorski

Piotr Pomorski

7 months

I have received some questions either in DM or LinkedIn on universities and PhDs that can help you A LOT land a role in a top quant fund. I am probably not the best person to answer but here is what I think: In Europe there are 6 universities that are considered targets pretty

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

3 years

Writing a new book nearly 100 pages in and still haven't mentioned momentum. Maybe I should.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

6 years

If you don't understand why this is cool you're too young

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

Highest iq beef on fintwit right now. Pull up a chair and get comfy everyone...

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

9 months

"What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party, which is wrapped in an ETF and traded on NYSE so we can gamble on it"

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

1 year

Who will be the first person to leave an amazon review? Or is everyone stuck on page 12?

@harrimanhouse

Harriman House

1 year

OUT NOW! Advanced Futures Trading Strategies is the new, highly practical guide to futures trading strategies - by bestselling author @investingidiocy (author of Systematic Trading, Smart Portfolios and Leveraged Trading)

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

1/ A thread on FTX and the implications for crypto Disclaimer: I am a crypto skeptic, and have been for many years. But I currently have no net position in Bitcoin futures (the only crypto related product I trade). I am not a crypto expert, but I (think) I understand markets.

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

Lots of questions this week for me and @TopTradersLive

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199 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – July 3rd, 2022

Rob Carver joins us in today’s episode, to share important aspects on the relationship between optimal leverage and CAGR and much more.

www.toptradersunplugged.com

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

2 years

Now it makes sense. So called super genius didn't understand the Kelly criteria.

@SBF_FTX

SBF

4 years

1) Better is Bigger

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Rob Carver

@investingidiocy

4 years

@APompliano Thorpe

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