Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Andrey Baklitskiy

1 month

With Russian officials repeating almost non-stop that there will be changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine, @ElenaChernenko collected views from 6 well-known Russian strategic thinkers on how they would change the doctrine. A thread 1/13

Elena Chernenko

@ElenaChernenko

1 month

The Russian MFA said that work on amending the nuclear doctrine is “at an advanced stage”. Kommersant asked six leading Russian experts in the field of international security what adjustments should be made to this most important document (in Russ.)

4

21

57

6

37

84

Last Seen Profiles

@WilliamPowell33

@JohnChisMusic

@janeng87086342

@MoniiBaggHoe

@Haoyi996

@mehrdad0762

@stw_pdg

@AnotherZB

@onaken_official

@JasonHubbard33

@CaminoUEFA

@stw_pdg

@DrinkAriZona

@stwmaniax

@vdp_hakusan

@cultempress

@kochayumi

@rafaurbinac

@_22522_

@amaama626

@glimpsyc

@ICOSociety

@stw_pdg

@yetn94675

@DOYOCHIBRASIL

@Khampeek1

@PaulDewar

@Khampeek1

@heiandemon

@Khampeek1

@BinorRaja

@pearl4minhoon

@amazonappstore

@llq__99

@Blake_Rdz_28

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

. @ElenaChernenko was purged from Russian MFA press pool for "lack of professionalism". She previously authored a letter against the war with Ukraine co-signed by hundreds of Russian journalists. Lena is the most professional person I know, also brave, & kind. The loss is for MFA

14

313

1K

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

In his speech announcing the partial mobilization of Russian forces in the context of the ongoing war with Ukraine Pres. Putin again raised the issue of nuclear weapons and made some noteworthy comments. Thread 1/13

38

425

1K

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

As Ru Defense Minister & Chief of General Staff were calling their Western counterparts suggesting Ukraine might use a “dirty bomb” on its own territory to frame Russia, I tried to unpack and make some sense of the whole situation 🧵1/20

25

311

846

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

BRKN. President Putin in his address to the Russian Parliament announces that Moscow will suspend implementation of the New START. This is really-really unfortunate, and the downward trend is now clear. I will write a thread below 1/x

21

242

647

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

5 months

Russian early warning SHF radar Voronezh DM near Armavir was attacked by (presumably Ukrainian) drones. Another piece of Russian nuclear infrastructure targeted during this conflict …

58

223

661

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

1 year

Another poll from Russia asking if nuclear weapons should be used to win in Ukraine: 74% no, 11% yes, 5% only if will prevent defeat. There are caveats but clearly the idea of nuclear weapons use is rejected by the majority of population despite everything

Три четверти россиян сочли недопустимым ядерный удар на Украине

Большая часть участников опроса Russian Field назвала недопустимым ядерный удар на Украине. Однако 16% допускают такой вариант

www.rbc.ru

44

162

543

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Those statements go beyond the Russian nuclear doctrine, which only suggests Russian first use in a conventional war when the very existence of the state is threatened. Putin adds “territorial integrity” and very abstract protection of people, independence, and freedom 7/13

4

94

475

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

So, let’s talk about NATO and US responses to Russian draft documents on security guarantees leaked by El Pais. This is how it looks from Moscow. Thread 1/x

13

186

464

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

None of this means that Russia would resort to nuclear use. This would be a truly world-changing decision. And it’s not clear if such a move would even lead to any desired outcomes for Pres Putin as @LawDavF eloquently wrote 11/13

Going Nuclear

On thinking the unthinkable (with postscript)

samf.substack.com

5

69

432

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Some personal news: I am thrilled to announce that I've joined @UNIDIR as a Senior Researcher in the WMD program to work on nuclear risk reduction. Watch this space, and I'm looking forward to collaborating with my new and old colleagues!

60

13

408

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

1 year

Russian expert Sergey Karaganov says Moscow needs to use nuclear weapons against targets in Western countries to “bring them to their senses”. This is wrong on every possible level and insanely irresponsible

Тяжкое, но необходимое решение

Наша страна, её руководство стоят, как мне представляется, перед тяжёлым выбором. Всё более очевидно, что столкновение с Западом не завершится, если мы одержим частичную или…

www.globalaffairs.ru

51

115

384

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

So, Pres. Putin said that some high-level representatives of key NATO states made statements about the possibility and admissibility of use of WMD/ nuclear weapons against Russia. I’m not sure I’m aware of anything like this, not from the NWS for sure 3/13

6

32

384

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

“Territorial integrity” is of course tricky as Russia is currently planning to absorb 4 Ukrainian regions, none of which is even fully controlled by its armed forces. Would this mean that Ukraine would be threatened with nuclear weapons to hand them to Russia? 9/13

15

53

381

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Coming from the person who has the sole decision-making power regarding Russian nuclear weapons this will have to be taken seriously 8/13

9

51

340

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

If the past is any guide, this will just fade in the background but will periodically resurface as the “US bio laboratories” story. At least I really hope so 21/20

11

22

331

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

Personal news. Today was my last day as Sen Research Fellow @ MGIMO. I’m grateful to @AA_Sushentsov & @m_suchkov for the opportunity. To all my former colleagues: I hope you will provide government & people of Russia with realistic & unbiased analysis, it is needed more than ever

28

29

322

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

But extending the conditions for possible use amidst the ongoing war is a huge gamble. One we all, including Russia, would be safer without #nuclearriskreduction 12/13

3

27

318

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

4 years

Russia and China will sign an MoU on cooperation in construction of a research station on the Moon. With the US-led Artemis program are we witnessing the crystallization of the the Space Race 2.0?

12

137

302

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

But then Pres. Putin continues by saying “if the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff” 5/13

5

45

306

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

What would it mean if Ukraine retook the territory Russia considers its own and Pres Putin would not use nuclear weapons in response? 10/13

5

32

282

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Russia announced it was not coming to the Bilateral Consultative Commission with the US - implementation body of the New START treaty - a day before it was supposed to begin @ElenaChernenko reports . What do we know and what does it mean. Thread 1/x

Комиссия ушла в песок

Сорвались консультации России и США по стратегическим наступательным вооружениям

www.kommersant.ru

5

168

273

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Pres. Putin continues “The citizens of Russia can be sure that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom will be ensured - I emphasize this again - with all the means at our disposal” 6/13

1

33

269

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

Presidents Putin and Biden in a joint statement reconfirmed the principle that a nuclear war can not be won and must not be fought. NST extension shows commitment to arms control. Will shortly start comprehensive dialogue on strategic stability

6

116

259

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Also read our recent @UNIDIR report on the disarmament, arms control, and non-proliferation implications of the invasion of Ukraine by Lew Dunn 13/13

5

37

259

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

In response to this Pres Putin reminds those unnamed people that Russia also has different “means of destruction” – meaning nuclear weapons, no surprise here 4/13

1

28

254

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Secondly Gen Kirillov makes it sound as if Ukraine can just withdraw any amount of “radioactive material”, but it is actually under IAEA safeguards, it can’t disappear without trace. Both of these makes an “imitation of Ru nuclear attack with a dirty bomb” highly improbable 19/20

6

31

241

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Lt. Gen Kirillov said Ukraine plans to detonate a “so-called ‘dirty bomb’ or low-power nuclear warhead”. I’m not sure why would the Head of CBRN troops use “dirty bomb” and low-yield nuke as interchangeable terms, which they are certainly not 8/20

3

14

233

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

There’s still no official translation from so this translation is unofficial. The Russian text can be accessed at , though the website apparently has some access issues rn 2/13

2

29

229

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

As Russia is posed to announce 4 regions of Ukraine as its territory, one question to watch would be the fate of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. This is an unprecedented situation. Thread 🧵 1/15

5

89

224

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

So, it is not clear there is a connection between Russia announcing a provocation against it is being prepared and something actually happening. For now, at least the opposite seems to be true 6/20

3

18

227

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

All in all, I’m really not sure what to make of all of this. The story is too complicated & specific to be a useful cover. And we have seen weirder things since Feb. 24 20/20

7

18

227

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

This seems to be very specific & complicated plan. I’ll just mention 2 things: isotopic composition of a regular “dirty bomb” & even partially exploded nuclear weapon would be quite different. & Ukraine would have to get HEU from somewhere to simulate the “unexploded” part 18/20

2

15

222

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Russia made an official statement on prevention of nuclear war (in Russian for now) , following a number of recent conciliatory remarks by Ru officials, including by Pres Putin that “there is no point in” using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Short thread 1/5

12

81

217

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

First, this is not the first time Russia alleged there will be some kind of false flag WMD use in Ukraine. On April 24, Lt. Gen Kirillov gave a briefing about this (I couldn’t find an English version on the MoD website, so apparently in Russian only) 2/20

3

10

206

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

In April, Gen Kirillov, Head of Russian CBRN troops, presented 3 scenarios: real chem/bio use in Ukraine to accuse Russia; covert use of low quantities of WMD for battlefield gains; “the least likely one” open battlefield use of WMD. 6 months later nothing of this happened 3/20

1

17

210

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

5 years

@thekarami

0

25

184

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

This is a huge mistake

10

24

206

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

And that wasn’t a one-off thing. In June Russian MoD announced that Ukraine is preparing a chemical weapons provocation in Odesa. It didn’t happen 4/20

Минобороны России обвинило Киев в подготовке провокации с химоружием

Служба безопасности Украины (СБУ) готовит провокацию в Одесской области для дальнейшего обвинения российских военных в применении химического оружия против мирного населения. Об этом сообщил ...

www.rbc.ru

1

12

199

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

In July Russian Permanent Representative to @OPCW claimed that Ukraine is preparing chemical provocations in the Donetsk region, Mykolaiv & Kharkiv. Nothing happened as a result. The list could go on 5/20

Россия направила в ОЗХО ноту о подготовке провокации со стороны

Россия направила в Организацию по запрещению химического оружия (ОЗХО) ноту о провокации с химическим оружием на Славянской ТЭС в Николаевке Донецкой области. Об этом сообщил постоянный ...

www.rbc.ru

2

12

199

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

4 years

If I hear the “JCPOA was flawed” one more time I will lose it. Your country and political system is flawed as is pretty much everything else. This is how the real world works. Grow up.

10

23

198

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

4 years

Me scrolling Twitter tonight

9

24

190

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

1

26

186

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Lt. Gen Kirillov also said that Zelenskiy announced his intention to “re-establish Ukraine as a nuclear-armed State” (not true), called for the West to strike Russia to preempt nuclear weapons use (true) & described how Ukraine kept shelling Zaporizhzhia NPP 10/20

5

9

181

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

Russia proposed two documents asking for legally binding security guarantees: a bilateral treaty with the US, and a multilateral agreement between Russia & NATO member states. I will focus on new and specific staff. Thread 1/

20

88

178

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

1 year

Nuclear risk reduction in action. @repubblica reports that during attempted coup NATO representatives contacted Russian MoD to notify that they had nothing to do with the coup and make sure there is no nuclear incident. I would guess US did the same

Golpe in Russia, i timori della Nato di un incidente nucleare. Contatti con Shoigu

L’allarme dell’Alleanza atlantica e delle cancellerie europee. Il rischio instabilità potrebbe favorire l’escalation

www.repubblica.it

7

52

174

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

I will not be going into the substance of what a “dirty bomb” is here, see for example this good thread from @CherylRofer 9/20

Cheryl Rofer

@CherylRofer

2 years

Let me emphasize this. The point of a "dirty bomb" is to contaminate an area with radioactive material. People in the area will ingest some of that material and will need medical treatment, but few will ingest enough to produce radiation sickness. 1/

2

144

461

2

11

176

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

4 years

Some personal news, I am joining the Institute of International Studies at the MGIMO University @mgimo_en as an analyst. I will continue working on nuclear issues, so looking forward to cooperation with all of you in my new position.

29

4

175

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Gen Kirillov also mentioned Eastern Mining & Enrichment Plant, which “extracts uranium ore”. Since natural U is useless for producing “dirty bombs” (or any bombs as Ukraine doesn’t have U enrichment capabilities), it would make 0 sense to put it in charge of a “dirty bomb”15/20

1

14

175

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

5 years

Mark Dubowitz today: Zarif is at core regime decision-making. Mark Dubowitz a month ago: Your daily reminder that Rouhani and Zarif have no power in foreign policy affairs. Whatever...

Mark Dubowitz

@mdubowitz

5 years

If administration does sanction Zarif, they should make it clear that he’s responsible & accountable for decisions made by regime to conduct malign & destructive activities. No more mendaciously denying responsibility. He is part of regime in Iran & core regime decision-making.

39

97

421

6

44

161

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

And then there was a plot twist: Lt. Gen Kirillov said that Ukraine plans to detonate a dirty bomb and say it was a Russian uranium-based low-yield weapon, which malfunctioned so there was no full explosion 16/20

4

13

169

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

1 year

Russian Minister of Defense Shoigu announced that the planned Zapad-23 strategic exercise is canceled. This was expected, as there were no visible preparations, but this is the first official confirmation. Last year Russia held Vostok-22 exercise

Россия не будет проводить стратегические учения "Запад-2023" - Шойгу - Москва || Интерфакс Россия

Москва/Сочи. 4 сентября. ИНТЕРФАКС - Россия не будет проводить в этом году стратегические учения "Запад-2023", заявил ми... читать далее на "Интерфакс-Россия"

www.interfax-russia.ru

3

51

162

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

4 years

Russian readout of Putin-Biden phone call says “the presidents expressed their satisfaction with the exchange of notes of extension of the New START, which happened today” - we made it!

6

62

166

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

But let’s get to the current Russian accusations of Ukraine. Today Lt. Gen Kirillov gave another briefing, expanding on the topic. His remarks are in English and somewhat confusing . Short recap below but I encourage you to read the whole thing 7/20

2

9

163

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Suspension of the treaty is not equal to leaving the treaty, I assume there will be no Russian build-up above the treaty limits. But there will be much fewer opportunities to verify this (only national technical means), so compliance will be disputed 6/x

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Suspension of implementation of the New START means not only will there be no inspections and meetings of the BCC, but exchange of information and notifications will end as well 3/x

3

30

156

4

28

159

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

I wouldn't really focus on the pretexts for Russian suspension of the New START. It is now clear that whatever insulation there was between arms control and US-Russian relations is gone. NST is suspended b/c relations are bad, it's a political decision 8/x

4

20

157

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

Russian Ministry of Justice closes @CarnegieRussia as well as local branches of @KASonline , @FESonline & other German foundations. Expected but still regrettable

3

102

157

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Suspension of implementation of the New START means not only will there be no inspections and meetings of the BCC, but exchange of information and notifications will end as well 3/x

3

30

156

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Also, Pres Putin directs MOD and Rosatom to keep infrastructure ready for nuclear testing. "Russia will not test first but it should be ready if the US does" 2/x

5

30

158

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Then Lt. Gen Kirillov said that “2 organizations of Ukraine have been directly ordered to create the so-called ‘dirty bomb’. The works are at their concluding stage”. Kirillov didn’t name the organizations 11/20

1

7

157

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

The radiation release would be picked up by monitoring stations and Russia would be accused of a nuclear use. 17/20

1

9

155

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Getting back to dirty bomb (or also building nukes - it wasn't quite clear) Lt. Gen Kirillov listed the facilities in Ukraine that have radioactive substances: operating NPPs, Chernobyl NPP & nuclear waste reprocessing facilities 14/20

1

8

151

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

Wow, more sensible positions! “Polish officials said the government is open to missile-defense inspections on the condition that Russia allows inspection of Russian missile activities in Kaliningrad”

5

60

141

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Since US has not suspended its participation it can still send its info and notifications to Russia. When Moscow suspended CFE participation in 2007, US kept sending info till 2011. But I doubt this will be the case 5/x

Héloïse Fayet

@HFayet

2 years

@baklitskiy So what about the Nuclear Risk Reduction Center ()? Is there any chance that some messages still go through this canal even though New START is suspended on the Russian side?

0

1

4

1

18

146

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Conditioning of return to the implementation are not clear. Pres Putin said that Russia will have to evaluate how the nuclear arsenals of UK and France fit the treaty. There is no possible way to include Paris and London in the New START 4/x

5

17

139

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Lt. Gen Kirillov went on to say that Ukraine was also trying to build nuclear weapons and were in contact with the UK on this topic 13/20

1

6

142

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

1 year

20 members of the Council on the Foreign and Defense policy (including Arbatov, Dvorkin, Zolotarev etc) write an open letter denouncing preventive nuclear use. Karaganov, who suggested that Russia should use nukes first, is Council’s Honorary Chairman

5

61

139

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

5 years

Mural at Yekaterinburg's railway station depicts downing of U-2 spy plane over Urals on May 1, 1960. It's a fascination story, but worth remembering that Russian MIG-19 was hit by friendly fire while trying to intercept U-2, pilot - Sergey Safronov, was killed h/t @arkhlikbez

5

33

132

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

I frankly don’t know what Russia could respond to such a letter. Maybe just re-send its original draft agreement because clearly, the dialogue is not happening. I wouldn’t be surprised if Moscow just stops talking to NATO after this & focuses on the US 10/x

6

23

124

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

4 years

Some personal news. I'm happy to announce that I was elected to the position of Senior Research Fellow of the Center for Euro-Atlantic Security at the Insitute for International Studies of the MGIMO University @mgimo_en .

17

2

127

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

5 years

So... that was it? No military response (good), new sanctions (there’s not much left to sanction), more NATO in the Middle East (???), ask China, Russia & E3 to leave JCPOA (won’t happen), some vague talk about diplomacy. Did I miss something?

28

113

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

1 year

I was planning to write something about Sergey Karaganov's new article about nuclear war, but maybe we should just ignore it at this point. Instead, I will re-up my piece for @CarnegieEndow on the original discussion about the first use in Russia

11

44

120

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

1 year

I’m sorry, UN offices in New York and Vienna, but you can’t beat this

5

3

119

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

1 year

I mean, if you just absorbed a 1500 warhead nuclear strike you probably have more urgent issues than worrying about other adversaries 🙄

13

19

118

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

Several people have mentioned this already, but I can’t stress this enough. The way the article & US officials speak about Chinese capabilities to evade missile defenses sounds as if US was planning to intercept its strategic missiles, which is precisely why one would build FOBS

Demetri

@Dimi

3 years

SCOOP – #China has stunned US intelligence and military officials by testing a #nuclear capable #hypersonic missile that traveled through low orbit in space, making a full circle around the globe before speeding towards its target.

600

4K

6K

5

22

112

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

There’s heavy snow tonight in Moscow and the city looks unbelievable beautiful. It’s like you are walking in a fairy tale

4

116

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

8 months

Ok, I went through the story and it doesn't live up to the hype (sorry William). Actually, we hardly learned much new at all even if we assume the documents are genuine. I wonder what those 29 files are, b/c the article seems to quote 2 of them. Short thread 1/8

William Alberque

@walberque

8 months

BREAKING NEWS! A big story by @maxseddon and @xtophercook for the @FT on leaked Russian documents, including a revealing briefing on Russia's naval non-strategic nuclear weapons (and conventional prompt strike) doctrine. Buckle up, this is a big one. 1/6

111

1K

4K

1

38

117

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

5 years

Ok, it's been a year since Michael Carpenter put up his 2019 Russian aggression watch list. Last year I said it had very little to do with reality. Let's check how it aged and what does it tell about Michael's "Russian expertise". Thread 1/12

10

41

109

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

5 years

No seriously, UN should start looking for other places to host its meetings, it will be complicated, but it’s unattainable that US decides which countries can participate in the UN meetings and which cannot

Foreign Policy

@ForeignPolicy

5 years

Exclusive: Trump administration bars top Iranian diplomat from addressing U.N. Security Council, in breach of U.S.-U.N. host country agreement, FP's @columlynch and @RobbieGramer report.

14

98

73

13

29

106

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

Painfully accurate

5

15

112

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

5 years

There are three things you can watch endlessly: burning fire, running water and people discovering the Open Skies Treaty

3

20

101

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

Latvia requested and Russia approved an inspection under the Vienna Document on Jan 24-29. The region for the inspection includes 13 000 square kilometers in Briansk and Smolensk regions at the border with Ukraine and Belarus.

5

54

100

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

6 months

If you think your plate is too full

6

11

107

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

One can also find some good news here. The suspension of the NST (unlike the withdrawal) can be easily reversed if the political considerations in Moscow change. However, it is not clear how the situation could change for this to happen 9/x

3

9

103

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Pres Putin also mentioned Ukrainian attacks against Russian airbases and US interest in new Russian systems against the backdrop of its aggressive behavior as a reason for suspension 7/x

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Conditioning of return to the implementation are not clear. Pres Putin said that Russia will have to evaluate how the nuclear arsenals of UK and France fit the treaty. There is no possible way to include Paris and London in the New START 4/x

5

17

139

2

11

101

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

4 years

Hey @Twitter , you apparently forgot to label US government officials as government accounts. B/c I would never believe you have different rules and standards for different countries. That would be hypocritical, wouldn't it? cc @yoyoel

8

36

96

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Let’s calm down, people. We still don’t have the full text but from everything I’ve seen there was no statement on deployment, only about delivery platforms (already provided), training (announced earlier), and storage infrastructure (new bit) in Belarus. Not deployment yet

Hans Kristensen

@nukestrat

2 years

Putin apparently said he will deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. A storage site would be ready by 1 July. The story is a bit odd. Unclear if this warheads or launchers. If true, it would be Russian version of US nukes in Europe.

33

83

160

13

55

102

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Russian Telegram channels report drone attack against Engels air base, 2 Tu-95 strategic bombers reportedly damaged. Tu-95s are a part of Russian nuclear triad but are also used to attack Ukrainian targets with conventional missiles #entaglement

Сирена

❗️На аэродроме в Саратовской области произошел взрыв Baza пишет, что на взлетно-посадочную полосу аэродрома в Энгельсе упал неизвестный дрон, пострадали два человека. ASTRA отмечает, что в больницу...

t.me

Dmitry Stefanovich

@KomissarWhipla

2 years

If there was a loss of a heavy bomber at either Engels or Dyagilevo, the US will know for sure by the end of the week. #NewSTART

4

70

237

0

54

94

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

This might change once the interagency discussion is over (or if things change in some way), but it hints that Russia is inclined to try to achieve its goals diplomatically at least for now. Which is in everyone’s interests. 20/20

6

12

95

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

1 year

Following Russian decision to de-ratify CTBT I was continuously asked if this even matters. After all, Moscow remains a signatory and promised to stick to all signatories’ obligations including non-testing, monitoring stations, etc. So, should we be concerned? A thread 1/10

5

33

96

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

6 years

Well, that was fast

16

69

77

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

Oh, ok

18

11

91

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

First reaction from @SecBlinken : Russian decision "deeply unfortunate and irresponsible", we'll see what Ru does. "Remain ready to talk about strategic arms limitations at any time with Russia, irrespective of anything else going on in the world or in our relationship" 12/x

1

13

91

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

As I told @ForeignPolicy this summer “In retrospect it was somewhat naïve to expect that business as usual will continue regarding the New START when everything else was falling apart.” 12/x

Russia Suspends U.S. Nuclear Inspections

But the Kremlin “doesn’t actually want an arms race” with Washington, experts say.

foreignpolicy.com

1

31

92

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

5 years

Some personal news. In two weeks I will start as a Visiting Research Fellow at @CSIS in DC working on prospects for US-Russia arms control. Looking forward to working under @DrJMankoff guidance & catching up with US colleagues.

10

3

93

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

1 year

My article for @CarnegieEndow on the recent Russian debate about the first nuclear use now in English: “Advocates of a nuclear first strike have not only failed to scare their foreign opponents, but have not even succeeded in winning over their colleagues”

4

27

88

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

1 year

Russian FM Lavrov: US embassy contacted Russian authorities during the coup, sending a message that the US was not involved and hoping that nuclear weapons will stay safe

Лавров рассказал о сигналах посла США по поводу непричастности Вашингтона к попытке мятежа

Министр иностранных дел России Сергей Лавров в интервью телеканалу RT заявил, что посол США в Москве Линн Трейси передавала сигналы российским представителям о том, что Вашингтон не имеет отношения к...

russian.rt.com

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

1 year

Nuclear risk reduction in action. @repubblica reports that during attempted coup NATO representatives contacted Russian MoD to notify that they had nothing to do with the coup and make sure there is no nuclear incident. I would guess US did the same

7

52

174

5

27

81

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

4 years

Today Vladimir Putin signed an order On the Fundamentals of Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence State Policy, which is quite self-explanatory. The document is only in Russian for the moment, but I assume it will be translated. For now, here’s a thread on the main points 1/20

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

4 years

The document, which some Russian watchers were calling a "REAL Russian nuclear doctrine", is now public. And you know what? It looks awfully similar to the things we already knew. But there are some really interesting bits. Will probably make a thread later

2

18

38

4

56

83

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

2 years

Head of the Chechen Republic and Lt Gen. of the Russian National Guard Ramzan Kadyrov suggested Russia should use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Of course he is not the one to decide but he is the highest ranking Russian official to openly propose this

Francis Scarr

@francis_scarr

2 years

"I don't know what the Defence Ministry is reporting to the supreme commander in chief [Putin], but in my opinion, more radical measures need to be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law in border territories and the use of a low-yield nuclear weapon..."

17

33

124

10

30

79

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

3 years

US proposes mutual non-deployment of offensive missiles and permanent forces in Ukraine. This will find approval in Moscow 12/x

3

11

79

Andrey Baklitskiy

@baklitskiy

5 months

Russian MoD announced preparations for conducting exercises in the near future of the Southern Military District (missiles, aviation, Navy) with the aim of increasing the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces to carry out combat tasks 1/x

Минобороны России

⚡️ По поручению Верховного Главнокомандующего Вооруженными Силами Российской Федерации, в целях повышения готовности нестратегических ядерных сил к выполнению боевых задач, Генеральным штабом начата...

t.me

4

38

81