Nicholas Miller @Nick_L_Miller Twitter profile

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

True to form, Bolton has no realistic regime change strategy.

The Hill

@thehill

4 years

John Bolton: "This will be the first time in my adult political career when I won't be voting for the Republican nominee for president. I won't be voting for Joe Biden either."

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

I know nothing about nuclear weapons, nuclear strategy, or nuclear history. Here’s why global nuclear proliferation and nuclear Armageddon is imminent unless my preferred policies are followed. 🧵1/239

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

I ignored the war in Afghanistan for the last decade and supported Trump’s withdrawal plan. Here’s why Biden’s withdrawal is like Watergate and 9/11 combined. A short thread. 1/47

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

Has there ever been a less believable quote than this?

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

It's not an accident that whenever Trump or Pence defend leaving the Iran deal, they never mention that Iran now has 10x more enriched uranium and has cut its breakout time in half.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

"A senior administration official said any use of a 'small' tactical nuclear bomb by Russia — even inside Ukraine and not directed at a NATO member — would mean that 'all bets are off' on the United States and NATO staying out of the war."

U.S. Makes Contingency Plans in Case Russia Uses Its Most Powerful Weapons (Published 2022)

A team of national security officials has been assigned to sketch out responses if President Vladimir V. Putin unleashes chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.

www.nytimes.com

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Just so we’re clear: Bolton and Pompeo are ready to start a war with a nation of 80 million people over the shootdown of an *unmanned* aircraft, in a crisis that they helped trigger by withdrawing from the nuclear deal that Iran was complying with.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

Tom Friedman is on CNN right now saying the best case scenario is Biden winning and Republicans holding the senate so both will be forced to compromise. LOL.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

Biden got more negative press coverage for the withdrawal from Afghanistan than Trump did at any point in 2020—when he was openly subverting the electoral process and actively making the pandemic worse. Totally healthy media ecosystem we've got here.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

A few thoughts on Ukraine and nuclear risk. The fact NATO is arming Ukraine to kill Russians does not in and of itself make me overly worried about nuclear use. Cold War showed even intense proxy wars can avoid escalating to direct conflict (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan).

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

It's going to be sad when American democracy ultimately dies and the journalists who were sitting on all the coup material for a book find that they can't publish it since there's no longer a free press.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

This leads to an uncomfortable implication: anything that increases the odds Russia is defeated/stymied probably increases the odds of nuclear use. That doesn't mean the odds are *high* but in the nuclear world we worry about small probabilities.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

When a female journalist from Reuters asked Pompeo whether Trump's rejection of the election results harms America's ability to promote democracy, he responded, "that's ridiculous." When a male journalist from Fox asks him the same question, he says "That's a great question." 🤦‍♂️

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

I'd like to nominate this for worst nuclear graphic of all time.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

No fry zone

Zeke Miller

@ZekeJMiller

2 years

DETROIT (AP) — McDonald's says it is temporarily closing 850 restaurants in Russia in response to the Ukraine invasion.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Mearsheimer: great powers inveterately seek regional hegemony and cannot afford to trust one another. Also Mearsheimer: if the US had promised Ukraine wouldn't join NATO, Russia would have believed them and no longer had an interest in invading Ukraine.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

I understand the emotional frustration with limits on NATO involvement in Ukraine. But this is the *norm* when two nuclear great powers are confronting one another. Throughout the Cold War, the US and Soviets avoided overt, direct conflict with each other, and for good reason.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Another egregious falsehood from Pompeo: claiming the Obama administration "greenlighted" Iran's nuclear program. In fact, Obama negotiated a deal that dramatically scaled back Iran's nuclear program. Trump left the deal and now Iran is ramping its program back up.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

When the Trump administration left the nuclear deal in 2018, they said their goal was to get Iran to *zero* enriched uranium. Instead, they convinced Iran to produce 12 times more. An epic failure of a decision, as many experts predicted it would be.

AFP News Agency

@AFP

4 years

#BREAKING Iran enriched uranium stockpile 12 times limit in 2015 deal: UN nuclear agency

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

The extremely unlikely prospect of Ukraine joining NATO gave Russia no choice but to commit suicide as a great power.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Trump says he doesn't trust the IC on Iran because they were wrong on Iraq. But the lesson of Iraq isn't that the IC is always wrong: it's that the White House shouldn't distort evidence and pressure the IC to support its policy. This is exactly what Trump is now doing on Iran.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

6 years

Today, the NYT published a piece detailing North Korea’s continued nuclear advances and the IAEA declared that Iran is complying with JCPOA limits. Yet the Trump administration acts as though NK is disarming and Iran is racing to the bomb. This is the exact opposite of reality.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Ever wondered what happens when you strangle the economy of a nuclear-armed, autocratic great power in the midst of a major war? I guess we're about to find out. No clear historical precedent to light the way.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Yes, he’s really blaming the Iran deal for the negative consequences of pulling out of the Iran deal.

Secretary Pompeo

@SecPompeo

5 years

Iran announced it will violate all limits on nuclear research and development. The fact that Iran retains massive uranium enrichment capacity reveals a core weakness of the Iran deal.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

What worries me more is what Putin would do if he thought he was at serious risk of losing/failing to achieve his aims. US mulled nuclear use in Korea, for example, during conditions of stalemate.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

The US accepted defeat in Vietnam and the Soviets in Afghanistan without resorting to nuclear weapons but I suspect Ukraine is more important to Putin than Vietnam or Afghanistan were to the US/Soviets. (Also, Nixon did have some crazy musings about nuclear use in Vietnam).

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Almost every expert I know correctly predicted that Iran was likely to expand its nuclear program if the US pulled out of the JCPOA and reimposed sanctions. The Trump administration did it anyway and is now trying to convince you that more pressure will solve the problem.

Face The Nation

@FaceTheNation

5 years

As @SecPompeo now says Iran plans to increase its nuclear activity, here's what he told @facethenation last year about the prospects of the regime re-starting its nuclear programs: "We're confident that the Iranians will not make that decision."

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

I get the sense a lot of people think nuclear deterrence is operating in a one-sided fashion, i.e. it deters the US but not Russia. But did Russia intervene and attack Americans when we went into Iraq? Afghanistan? Kosovo? Syria? No. Have they attacked a NATO member? No.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

I’ve thrown around the term “unipolarity hangover” and I think I’m ready to define it: “A condition where the afflicted advocate policies feasible against weak adversaries but possibly suicidal against major power rivals.” See: no-fly-zone, limited airstrikes, regime change

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Who to trust: the intel officials and nuclear experts who think there is a small but real possibility Putin would use nuclear weapons if he was desperate, or the armchair strategists who are 100% confident it would never happen? 🤔

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

I love the irony of the Trump administration pushing to extend the arms embargo on Iran while appointing someone to lead Iran policy who was involved in selling arms illegally to Iran. 😂

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Conventional wisdom is that nuclear war is bad. Is it really though? A brief thread based on some research I’ve done on the internet in the last few hours. 1/26

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

Gotta admire the chutzpah of Pompeo lecturing the Biden administration on Iran. When he was Secretary of State, he laid out 12 objectives for changing Iran's behavior and failed to to achieve literally any of them.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

Iran has cut its nuclear breakout time in half, attacked Saudi oil facilities, seized and sabotaged tankers, fired ballistic missiles at a US base, and sponsored proxy groups that have repeatedly attacked US forces. In what world does that make us "safer"?

Secretary Pompeo

@SecPompeo

4 years

Two years ago, @realDonaldTrump announced the bold decision to protect the world from #Iran ’s violence and nuclear threats by withdrawing from the Iran Deal. Today, Americans are safer and the Middle East is more peaceful than if we had remained in the #JCPOA .

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

The Trump administration pulled out of a painstakingly negotiated agreement, it predictably blew up in their face, and now they might pretend they're still in the agreement in a doomed effort to fix the problem they created by leaving it. 🤦‍♂️

David Sanger

@SangerNYT

4 years

JUST PUBLISHED: SecState Pompeo has a plan to force the extension of the arms embargo on Iran: If it ends, the US will declare itself a "participant" in the nuclear deal it has renounced, and use that status to reimpose pre-2015 UN sanctions.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

This is blatantly false. Iran did *not* escalate its nuclear program for five years when sanctions were reduced and then lifted under the JPOA and JCPOA. The latest escalation is a clear response to Trump reimposing sanctions, which Dubowitz & FDD advocated. They all own this.

Mark Dubowitz

@mdubowitz

5 years

Iran escalates its nuclear program when it wants talks, when it doesn’t want talks, when under sanctions, when not under sanctions, when no deal, when a deal & sunsets expire. Shorter: Iran always looking to escalate, through fits & starts, its military-nuclear program.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

So Pompeo knew the campaign against Yovanovitch was bogus all along and still wouldn't defend her. Maybe that's why the NPR interview the other day struck such a nerve.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Hannity's opening monologue called for U.S. air strikes against Iranian oil facilities and nuclear sites. Yikes. 😳

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

The fact that we need to rely on a landslide Biden victory that is *evident on election night* in order to avoid an authoritarian power grab is extraordinarily depressing.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

6 years

1. You pushed Trump to kill the deal that prevents Iran from building nuclear weapons to put on these missiles. 2. You supported US withdrawal from a treaty restricting *precisely* the type of missile you're talking about. Iran does not have a monopoly on provocative behavior.

John Bolton

@AmbJohnBolton

6 years

Iran just test-fired an INF range ballistic missile capable of reaching Israel and Europe. This provocative behavior cannot be tolerated.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Uncomfortable truth: if Obama had followed through on his Syria red line, China would have stopped being a rising power, Putin would have stepped down to usher in democratic elections, the Taliban would have surrendered unconditionally, and Iran would have become Switzerland.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Who could have predicted that bombing Iraq and killing Iraqis without the support of the Iraqi government would prove so unpopular in Iraq?

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

One thing we learned is the media is far more critical when a president tries to end a war than when he tries to start one.

Robert Reich

@RBReich

3 years

Never forget that Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld’s response to 9/11 was a fruitless war in Afghanistan that lasted 20 years and an Iraqi war premised on weapons of mass destruction that weren’t there. What did we learn?

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Lots of people are rightly praising the courage of Ukrainians. But let’s not overlook the bravery of Western pundits tweeting that Putin shouldn’t be given any off-ramps.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Imagine if when Japan started its wars of conquest in Asia, FDR had said, “I’m going to respond by supporting your adversaries and imposing economic sanctions and only get directly involved if you bomb us at Pearl Harbor.”

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

The JCPOA is 6 years old today. Having spent a decent chunk of this time writing/arguing about it, I thought I’d offer a few reflections. What’s most striking to me is people’s reluctance to recognize how hard it was to get the JCPOA and how rare of a success it was. 1/x

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Fortunately, history shows us that inflicting humiliating defeats always leads to long-term peace and never leads countries to become more aggressive and engage in wars of imperial conquest in Europe.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

It reminds me of the debate leading up to the 2020 election, when experts argued there was a serious risk Trump would try to overturn democracy and were routinely called alarmist..and then January 6 happened. Hopefully we don’t end up having a close call like that.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

Your regular reminder that the Trump administration's goal was to zero out Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and instead they've increased it tenfold.

Department of State

@StateDept

4 years

. @SecPompeo : We’ve made life more difficult for the Islamic Republic of Iran and its regime. We’ll continue to put pressure on them...President Trump has made clear Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

“We should seek unconditional surrender and regime change against a nuclear superpower” is a surprisingly popular take.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

My hot take is we should probably figure out what happened in Poland before going to war with Russia.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

1 year

Thought my daughter was becoming more aggressive the last few years because she's a toddler but then I realized she was probably emboldened by the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

The "failed Iran nuclear deal" eliminated 98% of Iran's enriched uranium and increased Iran's breakout time to 1 year. Since Trump left the deal, Iran has massively expanded its enrichment and reduced its breakout time to 1 *month*. Which of these sounds more like a "failure"?

Joni Ernst

@SenJoniErnst

3 years

Iran, the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism, cannot be trusted. @POTUS & his Administration must not give in by lifting sanctions or joining the failed Iran Nuclear Deal.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Occam's razor explanation for the failure of the Iran talks: The US withdrew from the deal when Iran was complying and is likely to leave again under a future GOP president, so the deal simply is not as valuable to Iran as it once was. The end.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

While Pence was VP, Iran increased its enriched uranium stockpile 10x over, shot down a U.S. drone, attacked Saudi oil facilities, injured 100+ Americans in a ballistic missile attack, and backed proxies that repeatedly attacked U.S. forces in Iraq,

Newsweek

@Newsweek

3 years

Former vice president Mike Pence suggested President Joe Biden's diplomatic strategy risks encouraging further Iranian aggression against Americans and their allies.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

I guess you could say I’m a moderate in the Great Mearsheimer Debate, in that I disagree with a lot of his work but don’t think he’s personally responsible for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Everyone is (rightly) focusing on the portion of @NPRKelly 's interview with Pompeo that focused on Ukraine, but she also held his feet to the fire on Iran policy more effectively than I've seen from any journalist. Some highlights below.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

Yesterday, Pompeo defended Trump's Iran policy by pointing out, "Iran’s current expansion of its uranium enrichment program would have been permitted by the nuclear deal in 2031." Apparently we're supposed to be grateful that Trump advanced Iran's nuclear program by 11 years. 🧐

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

The Iran deal eliminated 98% of Iran's enriched uranium and put in place stringent verification and monitoring mechanisms. What failed was Trump's policy of "maximum pressure," which created the mess that Biden now has to clean up.

Sen. Jim Inhofe

@JimInhofe

3 years

The U.S. should not return to the failed Iran Deal. Troubled by @USEnvoyIran ’s apparent push to do exactly that. My colleagues @SenRubioPress , @SenToomey & @SenToddYoung joined me in a letter to @POTUS urging him to work with us on a better path forward.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

It turns out Russia may not have attacked Poland. Here's why I was still right to instantly conclude they had and why all my policy recommendations from yesterday are still valid, even though they were based on a false assumption. 🧵1/58

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

TFW you think you invented the stability-instability paradox.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Here’s Mike Pompeo unintentionally describing how badly the maximum pressure campaign on Iran has backfired.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

He’s literally blaming the JCPOA for the negative repercussions of Trump *leaving* the JCPOA. Iran’s growing enriched uranium stockpile is a direct consequence of that decision.

Richard Goldberg

@rich_goldberg

4 years

Brought to you by the horrible Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). Now imagine them doing this with billions more dollars, perfected long range missiles, years of testing advanced centrifuges, and the UN calling it fully legal—that was the plan! Snapback long overdue—and coming soon.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

Thanks to Trump's withdrawal, Iran's breakout time has gone from 1 year to 1 month. The fact that Pompeo is still pretending that was the right decision is frankly ridiculous.

Mike Pompeo

@mikepompeo

3 years

We rightly withdrew from the JCPOA, as it provided a clear pathway for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. We kept Iran under max pressure while fostering new relationships among those who partnered with us. Now, the Biden Admin wants to re-enter the JCPOA.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

As of today, I am officially tenured. In other news, I'm thrilled to announce my next research project: an ethnography of the craft beer industry in northern New England.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

1 year

If only we could have foreseen this would happen in advance. Oh wait, almost every expert did.

Christiane Amanpour

@amanpour

1 year

5 years ago, the US pulled out of the JCPOA. “The Trump administration managed to take Iran’s nuclear program out of a box and to put it in the microwave,” says @AliVaez . Today, “Iran has never been closer” to nuclear weapons, and is “much more aggressive in the region,” he adds.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Let's assume, for a second, that this war continues to be extremely costly for Russia in terms of lives, economic pain, strengthened NATO, etc. What does a face-saving way out for Putin look like? (If there isn't one, the probability of escalation goes up.)

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

6 years

Trump came into office saying the Obama policy of "strategic patience" with North Korea was over. Now we're being told there is "no hurry" even as the North Korean arsenal grows and the multilateral pressure erodes. What should we call this policy, "nonstrategic patience"?

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

6 years

Many people have asked how we are doing in our negotiations with North Korea - I always reply by saying we are in no hurry, there is wonderful potential for great economic success for that country....

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Many have noted that giving Trump credit for not starting wars with Iran or North Korea obscures the fact that he triggered the crises in the first place. It also distracts from the fact that he’s utterly failed at achieving his goals of disarming Kim and a new deal with Iran.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Now I’m not sayin’ we won’t get our hair mussed. But I do say, no more than 10 to 20 million killed, tops, depending on the breaks.

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

@sumlenny

2 years

5) because he has nukes anyway and will always blackmail us with his nukes; 6) so the most secure way to get guaranteed peace is to eliminate nuclear Russia. Some nukes can explode, but they will explode anyway. Our object is to minimize their number + to make Russia nuclear-free

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

6 years

Remember when John Bolton was appointed and experts warned of his track record of killing nonproliferation deals, wrecking arms control agreements with Russia, and pushing regime change in the Middle East? It’s less than 1 year in and he’s already doing all three.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

2020 really felt incomplete without an incipient nuclear arms race.

Lara Seligman

@laraseligman

4 years

Scoop: The Trump admin has asked the military to assess how quickly it could pull nuclear weapons out of storage and load them onto bombers and submarines if an arms control treaty with Russia is allowed to expire in February. W/ @dlippman @BryanDBender

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Critically analyzing US foreign policy: 👍 Blaming US foreign policy for every problem in the world while minimizing the role of other countries: 👎

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Imagine if instead of Munich, the go-to foreign policy analogy was the Cuban Missile Crisis. Then you might learn that military strength and coercion can work, but also that brinkmanship is highly risky and that making concessions to an adversary can be essential to averting war.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

Fun fact: the United States negotiated the NPT, SALT I, and the ABM Treaty with the Soviet Union while its "proxies" were killing hundreds of American troops in Vietnam.

Washington Post Opinions

@PostOpinions

3 years

Biden can’t negotiate with Iran as its proxies attack U.S. troops, @JoshRogin writes

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

Obama and Biden rolled back Iran's nuclear program. Since Trump left the deal, Iran has cut its breakout time in half. But sure, keep telling yourself Trump's Iran policy is a stunning success.

Doug Collins

@CollinsforGA

4 years

President @BarackObama and @JoeBiden flew pallets of unmarked bills into Iran and handed over the keys to a nuclear program. @realdonaldtrump tore the Iran Nuclear Disaster to shreds and just negotiated a historic peace deal no one thought possible. #KAG

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

1 year

When Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and claimed he'd get a better deal, experts correctly warned that was a fantasy and that Iran far more likely to move toward nuclear weapons. The fact this was entirely foreseeable (and in fact was foreseen!) makes this especially depressing.

Parisa Hafezi

@PHREUTERS

1 year

IAEA report says pressing Iran on enrichment to near bomb-grade

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

6 years

Bolton, today: "We have little doubt that Iran’s leadership is still strategically committed to achieving deliverable nuclear weapons." Bolton, 2002: "We are confident that Saddam Hussein has hidden WMD and production facilities." Evidence has never been his strong suit.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

6 years

The next time someone tells you the mainstream media is too liberal, remind them that both the New York Times and Washington Post favorably covered the invasion of Iraq while portraying the withdrawal of 2,000 US troops from Syria as if it were Munich.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Yesterday, news reports errantly suggested Iran would negotiate on missiles, and Dubowitz seized on this as evidence that maximum pressure is working. Now that Iran has clarified it will not negotiate, Dubowitz says this is also evidence maximum pressure is working. 🤦🏻‍♂️

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

The pearl-clutching over the "semi-fascist" remark is particularly funny considering Republicans have been calling Democrats Marxists or Communists for years and yet no one treated that as some norm-breaking event.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Dear Iran hawks, Tehran is either “the weakest it’s been in decades” and “manifestly wilting” OR a massive threat on the brink of dominating the Middle East. Please pick one and stick to it.

Bloomberg Opinion

@opinion

5 years

Iran is the weakest it's been in decades, and manifestly wilting under Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign. Rather than push for an extended sunset, Trump should hold out for a complete termination of Iran’s nuclear activities

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Lots of takes I’ve seen on here the last 24 hours boil down to: “Look, I understand attacking Russian forces could lead to a significant risk of nuclear war. But wouldn’t it be cool tho?”

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Technically the Biden administration is strengthening the policy of strategic ambiguity by introducing ambiguity about whether the strategic ambiguity policy is actually ambiguous.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

He also said he was going to negotiate a new deal that would eliminate Iran’s enrichment program and end their support for all their proxies. None of that has happened and Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is now ten times *greater* as a result of Trump’s policies.

Secretary Pompeo

@SecPompeo

4 years

What @realDonaldTrump has said is we’re going to deny [Iran] the resources. We’re not going to send crates of cash. We’re not going to allow them to do business in the world. We’re not going to allow them to create the very wealth that destroys the opportunity for peace.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

Don't let this tough talk obscure the reality. On Trump's watch, Iran has attacked Saudi oil facilities, shot down a U.S. drone, backed repeated attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq, injured 100+ U.S. troops in a missile attack, and enriched 10x more uranium.

New York Daily News

@NYDailyNews

4 years

Trump to Iran, while speaking to Rush Limbaugh: “If you f--k around with us ... we are gonna do things to you ..." “Iran knows that and has been put on notice.”

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

For obvious reasons, the last year has been difficult. Being able to add this line to my CV is a nice bright spot though.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Ted Cruz wrote an op-ed on Iran and it’s a real gem. He argues the attack on Saudi Arabia was caused by the Iran deal, as opposed to US withdrawal from the deal. He also implies Iran is building nuclear weapons and would nuke US cities. Cool cool.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

Republicans saying “this wouldn’t have happened under Trump” are probably right: in the sense that he wouldn’t have made such an extensive effort to evacuate Afghan allies after the government collapsed.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

Anytime you start to feel sympathy for Bolton, remember that his main grievance with Trump is he wouldn’t let him start any wars.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

A few weeks ago, John Bolton said: "We have little doubt that Iran's leadership is still strategically committed to achieving deliverable nuclear weapons." Turns out the U.S. intelligence community has no evidence that Iran is currently developing nuclear weapons.

Julian Borger

@julianborger

5 years

ODNI Coats on Iran: "We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device...1/

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

If Bolton is so helpful to Trump’s negotiating strategy, then why is North Korea still building nukes, Maduro still in power, and Iran accelerating its nuclear program and seizing tankers?

Zach Basu

@zacharybasu

5 years

"Trump thinks that Bolton is a key part of his negotiating strategy," a source tells @jonathanvswan . "He thinks that Bolton's bellicosity and eagerness to kill people is a bargaining chip when he's sitting down with foreign leaders."

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Much of the hawkish commentary in the US on the war in Ukraine seems to boil down to, “man, I wish we could re-run the Cold War, but take even bigger risks this time.”

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Yeah I can’t recall any worse German foreign policy blunders in the last 100 years, especially not any involving gas.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

3 years

Gotta love the people who simultaneously think it’s *awesome* when Israel sets Iran’s nuclear program back a few months through through sabotage but also think it’s *horrible* when much stricter and more durable limits are achieved through diplomacy.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

4 years

Pompeo’s tweets today have convinced me that he’s the most successful foreign minister in Israeli history.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Dear JCPOA opponents: The fact that Iran is now ramping up enrichment activity is not evidence that Iran always planned on building nuclear weapons. It is evidence that your strategy of pulling out of the deal is failing, as many predicted. Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

5 years

Here's how well maximum pressure is working: -More advanced Iranian nuclear program -Tankers seized and sabotaged -Attack on Saudi oil facilities -Attacks on US forces and embassy -Iraq votes to kick US troops out

This Week

@ThisWeekABC

5 years

Pressed on whether the "maximum pressure" strategy is working with Iran, Sec. of State Mike Pompeo tells @gstephanopoulos "absolutely." "We're working diligently to execute our strategy to convince the Iranian regime to act like a normal nation."

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Since everyone is talking about off-ramps...do people not remember how many Cold War conflicts ended through negotiations? Even big wars where one side clearly lost ended with face saving agreements (e.g. Vietnam for the US, Afghanistan for the Soviets).

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Nicholas Miller

@Nick_L_Miller

2 years

Your regular reminder that Russia is not getting off scot-free because it has nuclear weapons. It is suffering massive casualties, facing a punishing economic response, and has managed to bring about the robust Western support for Ukraine it was ostensibly trying to prevent.

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