Dr Emma Hodcroft @firefoxx66 Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

@firefoxx66

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Die Virenjägerin! 🏹🧬 Co-developer of @nextstrain ! Using phylogenetics, I study viruses. I like ✈️ & 🐈 @firefoxx66 @mstdn .science @firefoxx66 .bsky.social

Switzerland

https://t.co/7oWNidRLqj

Joined March 2009

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

🎉The new and improved is here! 🎉 We're hoping to make this a one-stop location to track not only the 'headline' variants, but many different #SARSCoV2 mutations & variants that scientists are keeping an eye on. Let's take a tour of the site! 1/12

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

"If the virus is everywhere, what's the point of preparedness?" On neither why continuing about your day as usual OR buying every can in the shop are helpful responses to #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Coronavirus #SARSCoV19 : (1/n)

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

Is the new UK variant the same as the new South African variant (501Y.V2)? No. They both share the same mutation in spike: N501Y (N->Y at position 501). However, the 2 variants have arisen separately. 1/N

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

I want to repeat what others have said: **If you do not get vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, you /will/ get infected one day.** We won't eliminate SARS-CoV-2. The choice isn't "vaccine or not" - it's "vaccine or infection". This is critical for weighing up risks/unknowns. 1/5

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

In June, after reopening, #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 cases in Florida began to rise. Hospitalisations & deaths, however, stayed low. Perhaps it just wasn't so bad after all? Perhaps something had changed? We see similar trends in Europe now. So what happened in Florida? Let's see 1/25

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

This filtered @Nextstrain build gives a nice visual display of how distant the Omicron family is from everything else, & how different BA.1 (21K) & BA.2 (21L) are from each other. Distance is in mutations.

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

As we all grow weary of lockdowns & restrictions, & some case-counts seem to plateau, there's restlessness towards ending these to limit economic harm & 'get back to normal' Let me be very, very clear: There is no cheap or easy way out of this pandemic. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 1/n

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

Where I'm 'still' wearing a mask: 😷 - In shops - On transport - Around office buildings - In a crowd - Working in close proximity with colleagues - Places were ventilation may not be great - Wherever I feel more comfortable with it on #stillMasking 1/3

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

6 years

As an evolutionary biologist, you have *no idea* how hard it is to find tweasers small enough to grab bits of DNA (which is the main part of our job, obvs) #BadStockPhotosOfMyJob

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

If masks "don't work," it's a hell of a coincidence that flu disappeared at exactly the same time we were using them.... Pre-pandemic we often heard a lot about lost lives & livelihoods due to flu - imagine a world where we minimise all respiratory illness through small measures!

@EckerleIsabella

Isabella Eckerle

@EckerleIsabella

2 years

Helfen #Masken gegen respiratorische Viren? Ich poste hier die globale #Influenza Surveillance seit 2011. Die Lücke rechts ist 2020 & 2021, in dem Schutzmaßnahmen gegen Corona galten: Keine Influenza. Noch nie zuvor beobachtetes Phänomen. Leider kommt Influenza aber gerade zurück

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

Lots of headlines about B.1.1.529 today. Thoughts: Yes, this variant has a high # of spike mutations, & a few known to cause changes. But, we've seen previous variants that looked worrying & never took off. We should watch & wait for more data to estimate how concerning this is.

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

🎉Coming in 2023: The Hodcroft Lab!!🎉 I'm so so excited to announce that my @snsf_ch Starting Grant was funded! I'll be focusing on the amazing world of #Enteroviruses at the fantastic @SwissTPH as an Assistant Prof! 💰👩🏻‍🎓🦠🧬 Schweiz, ich bleibe! 🇨🇭❤️ 1/3

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

What if 2m/6ft is not enough? I'm concerned our 'opening' guidelines & restrictions may not be considering airborne microdroplet transmission of #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 sufficiently. What does that mean? 🗨️🌬️🦠 Let's talk. (Over a safe distance.) 1/23

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

On this Christmas Eve, I would like to spare a thought for the many scientists, researchers, & lab technicians & assistants who have been 'called up' thanks to the new #SARSCoV2 variants. It's been a tough year & many of us had hoped this week might be a well-earned break. 1/6

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

Just imagine the things we could accomplish in this pandemic if scientists weren't so precariously employed & funded that they feel they cannot share openly because they'll be out of a job/funding if they don't get academic-credit for their work.

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

Just to clarify some confusion about what 'Omicron' is. 'Omicron' has always applied to the whole family (BA.1-3 - we've known about them all since late-Nov/early-Dec). But the prevalence of BA.1 meant that it got shorthanded as 'Omicron' - that's causing some confusion now!🥴

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

I keep hearing very clever people with very large audiences repeat this. There's no guarantee that a pathogen becomes milder if severe illness and/or death aren't impacting its transmissibility. If it transmits early & kills a few of you 4 weeks later, it's doing just fine.

@theAliceRoberts

Prof Alice Roberts💙

@theAliceRoberts

3 years

“It’s a fallacy that viruses or pathogens become milder. If a virus can continue to be transmitted and cause lots of disease, it will”

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

So, preparedness isn't about doing nothing, but also about not overreacting. It's about doing your part to put the *slack in our systems* so that short disruptions are smooth as possible, can absorb extra load, & resources remain available for those most in need. #COVID19 (11/n)

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

What should we expect from #SARSCoV2 this autumn? I think it would be smart to prepare for both an increase in #COVID19 due to seasonal (behavioural) change & a new variant. As so many others have elegantly illustrated, new lineages of SC2 are sparking interest. 1/17

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

As far as I know, the #SARSCoV2 variant identified by Hancock today is defined by a spike mutation at position 501 N->Y & a double-deletion at positions 69/70. You can see it in orange in the dedicated Neher Lab S:N501 @nextstrain build below 1/N

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

I'm working to find out more about the new #SARSCoV2 variant Hancock mentioned to government today. I can't keep up with all inquiries I'm getting right now - I'll post when I know more, or retweet someone who posts with more information! 🙂

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

Why are scientists alarmed when the first #COVID19 cases we hear of in a country are deaths? I thought it worth clarifying. It's not because we worry the virus is "bad", "getting worse" or "changing". It's because #SARSCoV2 *doesn't* seem to lead to death very quickly. (1/n)

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

"Die Virusvariante ist momentan erst ein Funken, der uns keinesfalls davon ablenken sollte, dass wir bereits in einem brennenden Haus sitzen." "The variant is a spark that should not distract us from the fact that we are already in a burning house."

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«Die Virusvariante in Südafrika ist erst ein Funken»

Wie sehr müssen wir uns wegen B.1.1.529 Sorgen machen? Emma Hodcroft ordnet ein, spricht über Impfschutz und sagt, dass wir bereits im brennenden Haus sitzen.

www.tagesanzeiger.ch

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

Monkeypox: - We've had warnings about it for years - We have a vaccine - We have antivirals - We have experience w poxviruses Pandemic Preparedness is a buzzword right now, but if we don't seem to be prepared to effectively combat #monkeypox ... Is that what we want? 1/

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

In ending I just want to clarify that experts aren't telling you to stock up on essentials bc they think you're going to run out of food & society is going to collapse. It's because few days of panic buying & high demands cause more panic & stress systems unnecessarily (10/n)

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

Why do case fatality rate (CFR) for #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #hCoV19 differ so much between countries? Estimates vary from ~>7% (Italy, Iran) to <1.5% (S Korea, Germany). Are they different viruses? Does the virus treat people differently? No & no! CFR is a slippery number... 1/10

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

It's incredibly thrilling to have this paper out at last! 🎉 "Spread of a #SARSCoV2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020" (aka The Tale of Europe, Summer Travel, & EU1) But why should we care about summer 2020 now? Let's take a look... 1/24

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

👏🏻Lower👏🏻cases👏🏻save👏🏻lives👏🏻and👏🏻livelihoods Lower cases = fewer deaths Lower cases = fewer restrictions Lower cases = fewer economic losses Lower cases = fewer long-term impacts (Long-COVID) Lower cases = fewer full hospitals Why are we sacrificing all of the above? #SARSCoV2

@EckerleIsabella

Isabella Eckerle

@EckerleIsabella

4 years

There is no excuse in a few weeks or months from now to claim that this was unexpected, could not have been foreseen or prevented. All the necessary information & urgent steps to take are on the table. The time to act is now. #SARSCoV2 #COVID19

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

It can be done. We can live in a better world.

@fouadurbanist

🇸🇦 فؤاد Fouad | Urbanist

4 years

Two girls stand in the same location in Utrecht between 1982 and 2020 (38 years). The difference is clear, not only in the street components which can be implemented and achieved by designers, but the real development is the urban mobility modes Picture source: @edwinlucas_

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

I really can't emphasise this enough. The casual attitude of rest of Europe right now is baffling. What makes us so different from Italy? The virus has already spread widely. We know it overwhelms hospitals. We have a chance to prepare. We must take it. #SARSCoV2 #COVID19

@silviast9

Silvia Stringhini

5 years

1/ I may be repeating myself, but I want to fight this sense of security that I see outside of the epicenters, as if nothing was going to happen "here". The media in Europe are reassuring, politicians are reassuring, while there's little to be reassured of. #COVID19 #coronavirus

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

Important to say this is also why panic buying isn't helpful. Pick up a little extra now in every shop you do & this is easily absorbed by the system. Buy every can of beans in 1 go & you've stressed the system early, before there was any need. Stay calm, stay rational. (6/n)

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

“There’s not much that can spread this fast and be benign to a society that’s already got full hospitals without it.” @BillHanage “I’m not sure the message has gotten across to the decision-makers, how much tougher Omicron is going to make this.” (me)

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Scientists see a ‘really, really tough winter’ with Omicron

Another major pandemic wave seems inevitable. The big question is how much severe disease it will bring

www.science.org

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

If you're seeing tweets about the #SARSCoV2 'mink mutation' in Denmark: - This is all coming from press conference/release, we have no scientific context/details yet - Details do matter when it comes to assessing this Don't panic. Scientists will update when we have more info.

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

1 year

If you haven't already, you'll probably see a headline/story about new #SARSCoV2 variant BA.2.86 #BA286 soon. (Some more responsible than others 🙃) If you're seeking information, I highly recommend this thread by @jbloom_lab which highlights what we know & what we think. 1/9

@jbloom_lab

Bloom Lab

1 year

I wanted to provide assessment of spike amino-acid mutations in new highly mutated 2nd generation BA.2 SARS-CoV-2 variant This is analysis for those (like me) scientifically interested in SARS2 evolution (Anyone else is completely within reason to ignore this variant right now)

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

I'm going to keep repeating this until the world starts taking it seriously: Without equitable global sequencing *all* of our pandemic preparedness is half-blind. We don't know what's circulating now, & we don't have eyes for the future. Equitable👏 Global👏 Sequencing👏 Now👏

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

14 days

One of the reasons I've been quiet on Twitter for a few months is because I've been working on something big - something I'm really happy to share now! A new, open-source database for pathogen sequence sharing. 👐🧬🌎 1/12

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Pathoplexus | Home

Pathoplexus is a new, open-source database dedicated to the efficient sharing of human viral pathogen genomic data, fostering global collaboration and public health response.

pathoplexus.org

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

We had Italy in Feb & Florida in June... The curse of #SARSCoV2 seems to be that we aren't willing to look at what happens to others & imagine it could happen here too. We want to wait & see it ourselves. We can break that curse - let's act now. 25/25

@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

“I don’t understand why we were not prepared. It was very surprising that every country had to realize itself what was going on, as if they didn’t have the examples of other countries." 👆 THIS. Why did every country in Europe have to realise this separately?

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

I am incredibly grateful to have received the 1st dose of the #COVID19 vaccine💉today! A year ago, I never imagined we'd have multiple vaccines available & being distributed now. At the same time, I'm saddened the privilege I've been granted is still unavailable to so many. 1/4

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

@jburnmurdoch As I told a journalist this morning, "Now is a great time to practice saying, 'we don't know yet.'"

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

Repeats of 'everything is fine' followed by big jumps in case # & sudden announcement of closures & disruptions not prev discussed makes people feel the situation is out of control, that authorities don't understand what's happening --- that it's time to panic. (4/n)

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

If you're meeting up with friends/family this holiday season remember: LFTs are valid for hours ⏲️, not days 📅. Take your test as late as possible before you set off/meet up! Keep loved ones safe - be the one to break the chain. ⛓️ And: even a faint line is a positive! ➕

@BQuilty

Billy Quilty

3 years

A demo of how fast you can turn positive: Yesterday morning, yesterday lunchtime, yesterday evening, this morning. Do LFTs *just* before meeting up.

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

3 main options: 1. Lift restrictions. Cost = Lives, hospitals, economy. ☠️💸 2. Continue strict restrictions until vaccine. Cost = Economy, society, mental 💸🙁 3. #TestTraceIsolate Cost = Equipment, personpower, organisation 🔬👩🏻‍🔬 (the hashtag is a spoiler) 4/n

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

*There is no cheap & easy way out of this pandemic* It's going to be hard, cost $$ money, & require huge effort Or, we kill people & the economy. The sooner we accept our path - our 'Apollo mission' ( @trvrb ), the sooner we progress! #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #TestTraceIsolate 11/11

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

Why I am 'still' wearing a mask: 1. I have zero interest in getting COVID (or any other virus). Being sick sucks! And I'm still happy to play my part in trying to keep cases down. 2. To support anyone else who prefers to continue wearing a mask. 2/3

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

Well, after almost 3 years of a dizzy dodging dance - #SARSCoV2 finally got me last week. 🦠🤒 Happy to say I'm on the road to recovery now! 🛣️ It seems many of us 'hold outs' have been caught out in the last few weeks - be safe out there this Xmas! 1/5

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

Why is #COVID19 sequencing important? For one thing, it is the only way we can detect & track new variants. In our latest preprint, we describe a novel #SARSCoV2 variant that has spread across Europe this summer & what it can tell us. Read it here: 1/16

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

A main component of preparedness is about *putting slack in the system*. This manifests in a few ways here: - Public mentality - Supply chains & medical systems - Your personal life (2/n)

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

“I am precariously employed; I don’t have a long-term job. I feel a lot of pressure that this is my opportunity and I cannot waste that" says Hodcroft. Fantastic article by @meredithwadman on how scientists are coping (or not) in this pandemic marathon.

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

You might be seeing a lot about XBB these days, & we're in the process of adding it to @nextstrain , Nextclade, & (as 22F). You might also be hearing it's a 'recombinant' - but what does that mean? Let's take a look. 1/9

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

This is not a post to "tell" anyone else whether to mask or not. I recognise they're not ideal in some situations. This is mostly a post to remind people that many people are still vulnerable. Or just don't want COVID. If you want to #keepMasking , you're not alone 😊 3/3

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

Brilliant well-made points in this piece: “Smallpox was endemic, polio is endemic, Lassa fever is endemic, and malaria is endemic,” said @SGriffin_Lab “Measles and mumps are endemic, but dependent on vaccination. Endemic does not mean that something loses its teeth at all.”

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

By advising people to ensure they have a small stock of supplies at home to last a week, we put slack in food supply. Ex: If fewer truck drivers are working, reorganisation is needed for store restocking. If people can last a few days w/o needing to shop, it's much easier. (5/n)

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

🎊BIG new update to !🎊 Using cases from @OurWorldInData , we're now generating plots showing cases by variant! 📊🤯 This has been much-requested & in-the-works since Nov 2021. Let's take a look! HUGE 🙏 to @MoiraZuber & @ivan_aksamentov ! 1/7

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

"Just hang in there a little longer" 🤞🏻😖 We *must* stop treating the #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 pandemic as if this is something to be endured for a few more weeks. 🗓️ We're in this for the long-haul, & the sooner we start behaving that way, the better we'll do. 1/19

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

If you dropped five matches on your house floor 🔥, odds are they would burn out. But most of us wouldn't leave it to chance: we'd take steps to ensure they didn't catch. That wouldn't mean flooding the house - but a rapid, targeted approach. We should treat #monkeypox the same

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

European countries have likely bought time by stopping/restricting UK flights to reduce 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) import. Vaccine rollouts are progressing, & spring is around the corner. But what do the next few months have in store? What should we be preparing for? 🗓️🤔 #SARSCoV2 1/24

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

A case of the ' #SouthAfrica ' variant has been detected in the UK. There's also talk about a 501Y mutation in Wales. It's getting confusing! First: all 3 of these 501Y mutations are independent. It's appeared a few times, separately. #Newcoronavirusvariant 1/10

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

2- Preparing for a serious illness outbreak also means freeing up space in hospitals by doing things like cancelling elective procedures. This frees up beds, staff, and supplies for incoming disease cases. It also gives hospitals enough time to order more supplies/equipment (3/n)

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

As someone who hasn't had COVID-19 (N-antibody absence confirmed), I agree - it's critical we have accurate messaging on this. Yes, risks are lower. But no, not everyone's had it (or recently or the same variant) - & our plans shouldn't assume everyone has.

@EpiEllie

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD

2 years

The idea that “everyone has already gotten COVID at least once” is just the latest attempt to make you forget about the risks it poses and go back keeping the economy afloat. Sure, some infections are asymptomatic, but that doesn’t mean everyone who hasnt been sick was infected.

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

Importantly!: In Europe, the UK & Denmark are the most regular & prolific sequencers. So the variant could be elsewhere & not detected yet. In Africa, same is true for South Africa. More coordinated sequencing efforts regionally & globally would help us monitor variants 8/N

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

In a way we are 'lucky' because the rise in cases in younger people is sounding an alarm without the tragedy of high death counts. Our containment isn't working: transmissions are rising. This *should* be a chance to avoid that outcome! Act now, & get cases under control. 19/25

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

Weighing up our risks is natural, & important. But we must honestly acknowledge what the choices are - & at this point, 'neither' just isn't an option long-term. Vaccination not only protects you - it protects others. Now is the time. Please get vaccinated if you can. 5/5

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

🧨NO! There is no new variant that isn't detectable by PCR😤 The a new set of sequences, closely related to #Omicron has been detected & we *absolutely can* detect cases with PCR. What we can't tell as easily is /that they are Omicron or Omicron-like/.

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Scientists find ‘stealth’ version of Omicron that may be harder to track

Variant lacks feature that allows probable cases to be distinguished among positive PCR tests

www.theguardian.com

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

Critical: With or without the sparks 🎇 from B.1.1.529, Europe already faces a rapidly-growing inferno from Delta 🔥. We cannot let a new variant distract us from taking action right here, & now, to bring cases down, & prevent more lost lives & livelihoods.

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

I still hear concern from people about the 'unknown long-term effects' of vaccination. But what I don't hear people also considering is the unknown long-term effects of COVID-19. Or a fair comparison of the well-known shorter-term effects & risks of both. 3/5

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

Recently reported #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 ' #mink mutation' in #Denmark is getting a lot of attention right now, but officially we know almost nothing about the variants/mutations in question. From an SSI report from Sept, here is a little info. 1/21

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

This leads to panic buying, irrational behaviour, mistrust of the advice that's being given ("why did it change so suddenly before?"). Slack in the 'public mental state' helps people feel informed, that they understand situation & have time to prepare (5/n)

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

Siiighhh 😣 #AcademicTwitter

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

Those who follow my tweets will know I say this a lot: Data is still incoming, interpret prevalence graphs with care. This is where we are with B.1.1.529. The total # of sequences for the time period is small & may not be unbiased. Interpret carefully.

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

As much as I enjoy chatting to fantastic journalists - I'm tired of calls that start "whenever we talk, it's not good, is it?" I'm tired of being a broken record of unheeded warnings. I'm tired of hearing stories of loss. I'm so tired. But I'm still here. And I still care.

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Ed Yong is not here

3 years

That’s all I’ve got for you. I hate that we’re here. If people are tired of reading these pieces, I guarantee that I’m more tired of writing them. But we’re still here. And I still care about Covid. 9/

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

1 - Govts/health agencies preparing the public allows the public to prepare themselves - physically & mentally. The 2nd is a big one. A slowly increasing case # with early discussion of cancelling schools/events & possible disruption means less panic if these later happen (3/n)

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

I cannot emphasise enough how much this *is not the case*. Restrictions are working - the minute we ease them, the virus will quickly regain ground! ☠️ There is no short cut way #COVID19 isn't going to continue to cost a lot. But we have a choice in *where* those costs are 3/n

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

Denmark has a genetic surveillance system most of us can only dream of, but there's no reason to think that Denmark is an outlier when it comes to Omicron numbers. The rest of us likely just don't have the ability to see it (yet).

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Michael Bang Petersen

3 years

There is now officially community transmission with omicron in Denmark. ~50 % increase per day for the past few days. Remember: Denmark has a very high capacity for testing and variant detection and, hence, is without blindfolds. The spread is likely similar in your country.

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

When a scientist says "This paper doesn't show this" or "We don't have enough evidence to say" They are not saying it's wrong. Or that it will never be shown. They are saying we all need to be really careful how we interpret this. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 1/13

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

At #MCIDdynamics / #HumanViruses conference: - Everyone tested on arrival - All masked (except speakers while speaking) in sessions - All breaks/lunch/posters outside - Sewage monitoring in the housing The most comfortable I've been at a conference recently. Organizers take note!

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

While the restrictions currently in place are damaging economically & socially, they are *working* - & saving lives. There seems to be a bit of a fantasy that because things 'aren't so bad now,' we can start lifting restrictions & things will just be 'normal' again. 💰🌞 2/n

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

Same for pharmacies. Asking people to refill repeat prescriptions now reduces strain later by giving a few weeks when pharmacies can focus on increased demand from the outbreak illness #SARSCoV2 . Same for medicine supply chains. (4/n)

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

Will it impact the vaccine? I don't think we know for sure yet. Hopefully not The vaccine causes your body to recognise many parts of spike, so a few changes should not mean it stops working. However impact of more changes is less sure - scientists investigating this now. 11/N

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

3. #TestTraceIsolate No, this option isn't easy. And yes, it'll cost money & take organisation. But if really want to get back to anything like 'normal' - here's our best chance. There are variations in how it might work in practice, but the theory is the same: 8/n

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

1. Lift restrictions The virus isn't less dangerous now: we are stopping it with restrictions. As soon as we relax, the virus *will* return - if we do nothing, it will kill millions & hospitalise millions more. Do we really think the economy will be 'normal' through this? 5/n

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

Different countries & regions count deaths due to #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 differently. This is why I am interested in graphs of 'excess mortality' - they aren't dependant on counting method. They capture all deaths that are > expected. Let's chat quickly about excess mortality! 1/n

@d_spiegel

David Spiegelhalter

4 years

Latest data from ONS 30 mins ago Just drawn this extraordinary, and shocking, graph. Why the massive rise in non-covid deaths? How much is judgement of registering doctor? How much is collateral damage of lockdown???

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

Pundits: These 'experts' want us all in lockdown! They don't understand the damage to the economy! Scientists all over the world: *Wildly waving hands while trying to explain that #TestTestTest & #TestTraceIsolate both save lives & enable economy restart* #COVID19 #SARSCoV2

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

Lockdowns & 'circuit breakers' 🔒🔌 are a good way to get #SARSCoV2 cases down fast in bad situations. But they will only lead to long-term containment if you commit to fixing the underlying problems that got you to high cases in the first place. They must come with a *plan*.

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

A reminder: Scientists need to be absolutely careful & responsible in what they declare publicly. Careless statements based on early evidence cause panic & worry. You might be airing a hypothesis but to the public you're announcing their nightmare. Be responsible.

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

Be kind to yourself the next few days. Take time to enjoy a glass of something warm (or something strong!). Unplug as much as you can. Zoom with family and friends. Laugh. Spend a quiet evening enjoying beautiful lights. Stay warm. Stay healthy. Stay strong. 🧣🎁🎄❄️ 6/6

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

We must *increase testing* to have a better measure of the epidemic in our population & to allow people testing positive to *isolate* ASAP. Then, their contacts must be *traced* so that they too can *isolate* & be *tested*. But the rest of us can continue our lives! 9/n

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

Ok, the circle keytar just made my entire evening. Go #Iceland !! #Eurovision #Eurovision2021

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

3 - Finally being prepared buys you slack in your own systems. If supply chains are disrupted temporarily, if quarantine or other measures come into effect, you know you have enough medicine & supplies to let the systems adjust. (7/n)

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

"One shouldn't be afraid of the truth. One should be afraid of people who gloss over the situation and sweep it under the carpet. They are ready to sacrifice other things." - Thomas Guldener #COVID19 #Omicron #WinterWave

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

So if you are not yet vaccinated & could be, please sit with this idea: When you get COVID-19, what is your risk? Because the short-term risks are extremely real & serious - & the long-term damage risk & severity of Long COVID is only just starting to be understood. 4/5

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

"Correct 👏🏻measures" 👏🏻won't👏🏻protect👏🏻if👏🏻they👏🏻don't👏🏻address👏🏻aerosol👏🏻transmission! We are letting people naively walk into dangerous situations they think are safe by not updating our guidelines to reflect what we know about how #SARSCoV2 can transmit! #COVID19

@juliaoftoronto

Julia Belluz

@juliaoftoronto

4 years

Sure they followed all the measures -- but they also filled a spinning studio with heavy breathing, sweaty people...

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

Is #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 evolving to bypass masks & hand-washing?? Good news - No! These measures physically remove 🧼👏🏼 or trap 😷 the virus so it never reaches you. These basically can't be evolved around. So keep up the mask-waring & hand-washing - it *is* protecting you!

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

I've scheduled my #SARSCoV2 COVID-19 bivalent booster! 🗓️💉How about you? Even with immune-evasive variants, vaccinations can still help boost your protection, especially from bad outcomes! Every little bit might make the difference this autumn - you can help! 😁✊🏻

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

A lot of #BA2 in the news right now. Omicron is actually a little 'family' of lineages - most of what we've called Omicron until recently is BA.1 or 21K. BA.2 (aka 21L) is a 'sister' to BA.1 - both are Omicron. You can see their relationship here:

@richardneher

Richard Neher

3 years

@JosetteSchoenma @joel_mossong @BallouxFrancois @firefoxx66 This tree came out ok:

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

But wishful thinking & denial won't help here, just like they didn't help many countries in March. 'Wait & see' won't work either. As we should have learned months ago, by the time you've 'seen' - it's much harder to get cases back under control. 22/25

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

The @nextstrain focal build for 21K (B.1.1.529) is now live. As previously, the long branch leading to 21K is clearly visible, making it hard with current sequences to tell much about the evolutionary history.

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@firefoxx66

Dr Emma Hodcroft

3 years

✨ Now Updated✨ B.1.1.529 is designed @nextstrain clade 21K & is now included on Note that data is still incoming! I currently only have the first sequences detected & will update as soon as I have additional sequences. 1/4

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

However it's done, this will require a *big* step up in effort & coordination - there's no doubt about that. But to paraphrase Roosevelt: "Nothing worth doing comes without effort." The thing is - the other options aren't less costly. They aren't really other options. 10/n

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

5 years

This can be as simple as just knowing you don't have to go to the shop when panic buying is taking place - when full of many people & quickly emptying of most food. Stressful, unhelpful (limited food), & unwise. You can wait until restock arrives (8/n)

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

2 years

Incredibly grateful to have my #COVID19 #vaccine #bivalent #booster today in @BaselStadt !💉 I'm ready for autumn, are you?🍁 Sehr dankbar, dass ich heute im Basel meine #Auffrischungsimpfung bekommen habe!💉 #impfung Ich bin bereit für den Herbst, du auch? 🍁

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

If your PhD students & post-docs can work remotely, please let them, if they want to. Many may be far from family, friends, & partners, unable to visit as they might normally do. This pandemic is hard enough, long enough, & lonely enough. Please be flexible & help them out.

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Dr Emma Hodcroft

4 years

A new run of the S:N501 data is up now - with improved background sequencing to better show how the mutations have arisen independently! UK variant at top in green. SA variant the blue in the middle - stemming from "20C" label. 15/N

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