Fabian Wintersberger @f_wintersberger Twitter profile

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Fabian Wintersberger

19 days

The #WeeklyWintersberger 'The Middle' 1. European PMIs & EU politics 2. Germany continues to struggle 3. US PMIs signal continuing strength 4. Bonds: deep recession, everything else is bearish More: Have a great summer!

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Saudia Arabia now buys cheap Russian oil, so it can sell its own oil to the West. Russia wins, Saudia Arabia wins, and the west loses.

Exclusive: Saudi Arabia doubles second-quarter Russian fuel oil imports for power generation

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, more than doubled the amount of Russian fuel oil it imported in the second quarter to feed power stations to meet summer cooling demand and free up the...

www.reuters.com

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Can we say the Austrian finance ministry pulled off the century's trade by issuing a 100y bond with a 0.85% yield in 2020?

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

See this strong economy? The consumer is so strong that more and more people have stopped producing. US trade deficit widens to $-109.8bn.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 years

Climate change: Ursula is really onto it to reduce carbon emissions! Hypocrisy at its best.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 years

#food #inflation is coming to Europe

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Wow! German producer prices rose 45.8% YoY, much more than the 37.2% expected. In Europe, it's hard to see a peak in inflation. Expect higher inflation rates down the road.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

The main reason, in my opinion, why Germany and Austria are so dependent on Russian gas is that they wanted to be the pioneers of renewables, abandoned coal & rejected nuclear. And they didn’t think about proper risk management (several suppliers) So, politics failed, as always.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

10 months

To be honest, after Macron said, 'times of abundance are over,' I didn't expect 'no abundance' to include such a banquet in Versailles.

Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

I assume Macron was very thoughtful in choosing the location from which he told the French that the “times of abundance” were over. Or was he?

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Germany is on its way to becoming Italy.

FinancialJuice

@financialjuice

2 years

GERMAN STATS OFFICE: GERMAN GOVERNMENT BUDGET RECORDED FINANCIAL DEFICIT OF €117.6 BILLION AT THE END OF 2022.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

The euro is toast👇

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

European politicians: 'renewable energy will make us independent' Reality 👇 Draw your own conclusions.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Reshoring means a higher cost of production, hence higher prices. Higher inflation is here to stay.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

It's been a tough week for the euro, but thankfully the ECB is fully committed to fighting climate change.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Oh my gosh. I have no words for this.

Tweed Cap

@CapTweed

2 years

“Inflation came from nowhere” Yes. She really just said that on TV.. 😂🤣

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

The lower the euro falls, the more inflation will stay elevated. Good job, Lagarde!

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

French electricity prices reached another all-time high this morning 👇

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Prices are scarcity signals, and if you mess around with those signals, you misallocate capital and resources. It's that simple.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

'But they said the consumer is strong'

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

#Austria is a funny country: to 'dampen' inflation pressures, ppl will receive a € 500 'climate bonus' by September (the initial plan was in October). Gov says it's financed by a CO2 tax, kicking in October. Funny, right? Funnier: 300k ppl, randomly chosen, get the bonus today.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 years

Did you hear about this new cryptocurrency? It's called USD/TRY

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Remember the good old days?

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

12 days

🇩🇪 Once again, disappointing data coming out of Germany: Industrial Production YoY plunges to -6.7% (est. -4.3%).

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 years

Insiders know something that you don't. They sell. Good morning & have a good start!

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

9 months

🇩🇪 Germany again had to import electricity in October. Since it quit nuclear, there were z-e-r-o months where it produced enough electricity for domestic electricity consumption 👇 (pic h/t @simhaas )

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Update 👇 German electricity imports rose to another record level.

Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Now that Germany has switched off its nuclear power plants, electricity imports reached a record level in May. (pic ( h/t @simhaas )

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 years

*Italy PPI rises 25.3% YoY -BBG probably nothing...

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 years

Letting the government measure the current rate of inflation is kind of as if the mafia observes the current rate of crime.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Debt levels are the real problem for the Fed when it comes to fighting inflation. An argument that Powell might neither be an Arthur Burns nor a Paul Volcker but more of a mix of Marriner S. Eccles, Thomas B. McCabe & William McChesney Martin (Fed chairs between 1945 - 1970).

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Remember when everyone & their mother championed Spain's interventionism to control CPI? Yet, most forget such interventions can only artificially reduce CPI temporarily, as they don't lead to additional supply & only leads to a higher CPI down the road. Core CPI unaffected.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Lagarde: 'We were fighting deflation, and inflation came out of nowhere!' Here's the Eurozone Core Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices (2015=100). I cannot identify deflation - can you?

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Sehr geehrte @BMeinl ! Morgen wird im #OeNR über die #Impfpflicht abgestimmt. Diese ist, frei nach Ihrem Vorgänger, ein 'totes Pferd', & wird zu einer Blamage werden. Gehen Sie heute Abend nochmal in sich, und stimmen Sie morgen wie eine Liberale ab: mit Nein. Schönen Abend!

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Development of gas, coal, and oil since 2020: Gas: +1,900% Coal: +620% Oil (WTI): +53% Cheap energy looks like a thing of the past.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

According to the Taylor-Rule, the Fed would need to hike interest rates up to 9%. I can assure you, that won't happen because something would break before. But just imagine how epic the recession would be if that happened.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Some argued that in a recession, demand will collapse faster than supply. But let's assume European manufacturing partly shuts down, production is falling, but people receive unemployment benefits & extra free money. What is falling faster, supply or demand? I tend to say supply.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

European gas prices go ballistic again.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

The euro is on its way to becoming an EM currency, as the US is ready to fight Russia down to the very last European. Parity soon, but be prepared that the euro can go much lower. Thanks, ECB!

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

10y Bund Futures (white) vs. Dax (blue). The last two times when stocks and bonds disagreed: were 2000 and 2008. The current divergence looks more like 2000.

Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Looks like 10y Bunds are back down to a make-or-break point.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 months

@johanknorberg @wirtschaftfreih Do you have a similar chart for wealth, e.g., assets?

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

How it started vs. how it's going. 👇

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 months

Former BoE governor Mervyn King with a truth bomb: CBs relied on forecasting models that ignore the money supply. He pointed out that excessive money supply relative to output historically led to inflation, thrashing CBs for ignoring broad money growth. Link below 👇

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Can you see what kills inflation? Bringing the Real Fed Funds Rate above CPI.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Germany: EU harmonized CPI May at 8.7% (est. 8.1%). Still, ECB officials say that interest rate hikes should be made only gradually.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Out of nowhere (Christine Lagarde), consumer price inflation in #Austria accelerated to 11 % YoY.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

5 years

now it's obvious: #Trump has no clue about #economics . #Tarrifs on mexican goods do not hurt the mexicans, they hurt the #american #consumer because they have to pay higher prices to buy those products.

Trump Tariff Vow Roils Markets, Autos as Mexico Urges Talks

President Donald Trump’s vow to impose tariffs on all Mexican goods over illegal immigration threatened to increase costs for automakers and other manufacturers and left Mexico’s president calling to...

www.bloomberg.com

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 months

'we may cut' 'we may keep rates steady' 'we may hike'

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

'European power prices are not expensive by chance, but by design. The exponential increase in subsidies, regulated costs and the price of CO2 emission rights are political decisions.'

Daniel Lacalle

@dlacalle_IA

2 years

Europe's Energy Crisis Was Created by Political Interventionism.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

So many people are wrongfully blaming the rate hikes for the current problems. No, the problem was the artificially low-interest rates prior, and that was when the problems got created.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

10% inflation, and there are still people who think that 2% is the neutral rate. Astonishing!

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

4 years

The Spanish government thinks about implementing a four day work week & the Germans are going to pay for it. Of course the "recovery" fund money will be invested wisely and will spur growth... Just laughable!

Dr. Daniel Stelter

@thinkBTO

4 years

#EU #Wiederaufbaufonds soll Viertagewoche bezahlen. Weiterer Beweis, dass man sich auf dauerhafte #Transfers einstellt. Bezahlt aus Steuererhöhungen und Vermögensabgaben in #Deutschland .

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

10 months

Exactly. Monetary aggregates (like M2) might be too narrow in a world where everyone can trade stocks against cash on their phone within minutes. That’s why a re-acceleration (among other influences) may seem likely. When markets react to the reality, we should see a bear

Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch

11 months

The Cleveland Fed updated their inflation nowcast this morning. August CPI is now projected at 0.79%, pushing the YoY to 3.82%. September CPI is now projected at 0.45%, pushing the YoY to 3.91%. Driving this has been the rise in gasoline prices. Yes, the Cleveland Fed has

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 months

If you support the idea of a United States of Europe, you’re advocating for: - more centralization - more regulation - Joint debt & liability - mass surveillance I fail to see how any of these align with classical liberal principles or are the solution to our problems.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 years

'...the ECB really is no longer the ECB anymore. The Green Transition is primarily a political project, so the ECB’s new mandate to also combat climate change is evidence that any pretense of political independence of the ECB has now been trashed'

The ECB is no longer the ECB - Brussels Report

By Alex Sassen Van Elsloo, a Dutch finance expert and research consultant When the euro was being designed, a lot was already wrong. The designers had political goals in mind and they had very little...

www.brusselsreport.eu

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Norway: PPI +79.4% YoY Wow!

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Russian Central Bank lowers the key rate from 17% to 14% (est. 15%) Ruble rises, now at 70.96 USD. @LukeGromen @ttmygh

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

@m_grill @a_nnaschneider Sie wissen es vielleicht nicht: Libertär ist die amerikanische Version von 'klassisch Liberal', weil die Demokraten den Begriff 'Liberals' als Synonym für Linksliberalismus etabliert haben. Die Anarchokapitalisten (die Sie hier meinen) sind nur eine Gruppe unter den Libertären.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

It's not about whether you agree with Farage or not. It's about whether you are an advocate of freedom or not. Good piece by @DoombergT

Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Worrying developments.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Ignorance, incompetence, or both 👇

Ursula von der Leyen

@vonderleyen

2 years

The EU agreement on an oil price cap, coordinated with G7 and others, will reduce Russia’s revenues significantly. It will help us stabilise global energy prices, benefitting emerging economies around the world.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

6 years

why taxes benefit large companies

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

6 months

Modern Monetary Theory

Flame (炎)

@yanti8ve

9 months

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Still, everyone is buying the dip. Hard to believe...

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

In 2018, the 2y started falling before the Fed ended its hiking cycle. The 2y reversed recently, probably because market expectations on rate hikes were too aggressive. But, in '18, we already saw 8 hikes, this time only 1. I think the Fed can't hike above 1.5% until sth breaks.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

A sooner-than-expected recession might cause a deflationary shock, but even that won't bring consumer prices down to their long-term trend. Prices must remain constant for the rest of the decade to get there. A deep dive into inflation and an outlook -> see the pinned tweet

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Rate hikes? Who cares! BBG Financial Conditions Index is now back to where it was in February 2022. Fed Funds Rate back then: 0% h/t @LizAnnSonders

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

11 months

For years, the left told central banks to print money to create high growth. Instead, you have high inflation and no growth. They reap what they sow.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Lockheed Martin has surged to new all-time highs since the war started. Always remember: military aid (regardless of which country gets it) means that you transfer government money to the weapon industry.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

The days of Germany as Europe's economic powerhouse are ending due to high energy costs, high inflation, and questionable plans for more EU regulation. (Chart: @Schuldensuehner )

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

4 years

Lockdown-policies by governments more and more remind me of monetary policy by central banks: If it doesn't work at all or as expected it simply wasn't enough according to them. #moar

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Von der Leyen: 'We have to acknowledge a new reality of higher public debt.' Apparently, she was asleep for 14 years.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Today, we are in this rare environment where the Fed hikes interest rates, but the deficit continues to grow as a share of GDP. This works against monetary tightening.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Net investments into Germany last year 👇 -$131.8bn ($11bn inflows vs. $142bn outflows) Robert Habeck‘s economic policies shallow the German industrial base. Lower growth and tough times ahead for Germany. (source: ZDF, Handelsblatt)

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Another ECB 50bps hike is coming

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 years

German producer price inflation armageddon continues: YoY 18.4% (16.2% est) MoM 3.8% (1.9% est)

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

We've been in an economic war for six months now. Everyone talks about how to reduce the demand for gas, electricity, etc. But still, very few talk about what can be done on the supply side to lower the price. No fracking in Europe, no more nuclear. Just solar, wind & hope...

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

4 years

Dieses Gespräch muss man gesehen haben: If you are able to understand German then watch this highly interesting interview with Friedrich August von Hayek:

Gespräch mit Friedrich August von Hayek

Anlässlich des Forums Alpbach traf der Journalist Franz Kreuzer im Jahr 1983 Prof. Friedrich August von Hayek, dem 1974 den Nobelpreis für Wirtschaftswissenschaften verliehen wurde, zum ausführlichen...

on.orf.at

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Interesting. German journalists in 2021: racist conspiracy theorists who believe in fake news protest against covid lockdowns & hold the silent majority hostage. Censor them! 2022: brave people protest against lockdowns, call for freedom & censorship. We support freedom!

Argo Nerd

@argonerd

2 years

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 years

Do not count on central banks to tighten. Yields will not rise because of talking about tightening but rather will rise because of accelerating inflation. The transitory talk is just wishful thinking and hope that words become reality. The situation is different to past 2008...

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Really? The 'hottest day recorded for Planet Earth' isn‘t based on measurings but on a computer model?

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Until now, #Austria spent €4 billion on covid tests, resulting in the infection curve moving like everywhere else.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

I am astonished that so many people in the investment community fall for MMT. Maybe, it's time to reshare this piece by @dlacalle_IA . The title says it all: 'MMT Is Fake Economics'

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Always a good laugh!

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 years

Global debt soars to a record high: 'Loose monetary policy is today’s biggest market risk'

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

That didn‘t age well…

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

As if he was talking about today's developments👇

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Update 👇 #food #inflation is coming to Europe

Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 years

#food #inflation is coming to Europe

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

8 months

@SCHIEDER machen Sie sich doch nicht lächerlich...

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

4 years

Mises half Kollegen bei ihrer Flucht vor den Nazis, er selbst wurde von den Nazis gejagt & floh unter gefährlichen Umständen in die USA. Ihm die Unterstützung v. Diktaturen nachzusagen ist schlechter Stil. Außerdem: Mises starb 1973, 1 Monat nach Pinochets Putsch.

Markus Marterbauer

@MarterbauerM

4 years

Absurd: @OrtnerOnline fordert ökonom Schulbildung, um Demokratie zu stärken, u empfiehlt ausgerechnet Hayek u Mises, die Diktaturen in Chile u Ö unterstützten, weil sie Freiheit wirtschaftl Eliten durch Demokratie, Sozialstaat u Gewerkschaft bedroht sahen.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Don’t get fooled by the fancy name 'TPI', it’s simply QE.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

Data suggests: It's over. German and Austrian politicians are still in denial.

Kyle Lamb

@kylamb8

2 years

In England, surveillance of Omicron found just 75 deaths among 212,019 confirmed cases. That's a 0.03% case fatality rate and that's deaths "with" positive test up to 28 days prior to death. Infection fatality rate of flu is ~0.1%. UK has since stopped publishing surveillance.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

4 years

QE hasn't worked in 2008 and even more QE won't save us nowadays. Economic ignorance by central banks policy makers is astonishing.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

Translation: we will hand out your money to net-zero businesses, whether they’re productive or not. Green bubble in the making. You can even question whether it’s helping the planet.

European Commission

@EU_Commission

1 year

The fight against climate change is a must. A must for our planet. A must for our economic prosperity. And a must for our strategic independence. With the Green Deal Industrial Plan, we want to enhance the competitiveness of Europe's net-zero industry. #EUIndustrialStrategy

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

11 months

@OVoglauer Sie meinen, man darf so etwas nicht tragen?

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

That's what artificially low yields in the US created: A record number of zombie companies. It will be pretty hard for them to survive an environment of rising yields. (chart source: @JonathanBaird88 on Linkedin)

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

4 years

"Schon längst ist für jeden, der es sehen will, überdeutlich, dass es nicht um das Erreichen eines Inflationsziels geht, sondern um den Erhalt der Eurozone mittels einer Schuldenunion – über den Umweg der EZB-Bilanz." Lesenswerter Text von @thinkBTO

Die EZB ist die „Europäische Zombifizierungsbank“

Dieser Kommentar erschien bei manager magazin: Seit fast zehn Jahren bemüht sich die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) um das Erreichen ihres Inflationsziels von zwei Prozent. Negativzinsen und millia...

think-beyondtheobvious.com

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

8 months

What's going wrong in Germany in one chart 👇

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

1 year

This is the US Consumer Price Index, and the deviation from the trend shows the damage that it has done. Inflation is a tax that affects low-income groups the most. The Fed aims to return price growth to the same rate as post-2000, but it clearly hasn't succeeded yet.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

3 years

Bond markets want to tell something about the economy. Tapering, NFP above expectations; still 10y yields down sharply. That’s the anticipation of a slowdown in my opinion.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

German gas storage at 100% 👇

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

The US might force Russia to default on its dollar debt. The result would be, that those institutions don’t get paid 👇

FinancialJuice

@financialjuice

2 years

THE US IS SET TO STOP RUSSIA FROM PAYING ITS DEBTS, INCREASING THE RISK OF DEFAULT. - SOURCE.

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

10 months

@vonderleyen What about freezing the Azerbaijan FX reserves, stopping gas imports, and send money to Armenia? Anything else would be hypocritical, wouldn't it?

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Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

2 years

A windfall profit tax reduces investment, even if politicians pretend otherwise. 👇 (pic h/t @Josh_Young_1 )

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