Evan Tindell @evantindell Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Evan Tindell

@evantindell

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Bireme Capital CIO / MIT '06 / I used to play poker

Philadelphia, PA

Joined April 2009

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 months

We sent out a letter to investors last night with results to the end of May. It’s been a rough first half for value investors and anyone who shorts stocks. We’re down more than 10%. We aren’t pulling back from shorting, and in the letter mention

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 years

What’s the best industry deep-dive book you’ve read? I’m talking about books like The Prize (oil) Fish that Ate the Whale (fruit) Etc

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

10 months

Holy shitballs - the FT has tracked all of Softbank's IPO returns. And guess what... they are terrible

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

8 months

Ackman is an interesting cognitive dissonance test. Can you hold all these contradictory ideas in your head?? - BA was wrong on the golf course thing - BA was publicly wrong on Target - BA was very publicly wrong on JCP - BA was very publicly wrong on Valeant - BA was wrong

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 years

🚨Past performance is not indicative of future results! 🚨 But we got lucky enough to be +36% in Fundamental Value in 2022. See our Q4 letter and lots of old letters here: You can order this booklet for free (sending soon):

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 years

My god

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 years

Probably no one here cares but I just benched 225 for the first time 🍾🎉🤯

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 months

Investing is hard episode 38. We sold $TME Tencent Music for around $5 in Sept 2022, after owning it for around 18 months. We sold due to the underperformance of the live streaming business, which was the majority of profitability at the time.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 months

The European convention of putting interest expense outside of operating cash flows is insane. If you look at the CF statement of Bayer AG you might think the company did around $2.5b of FCF in 2023 ($5b operating cash flow - $2.5b in capex etc excluding acquisitions). But then

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 years

Remember that raising money from the public is a fucking joke to these guys: share count, projections, everything.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 years

"I focus primarily on business quality and not valuation" -Literally everyone

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

8 years

Interview of @pmarca by @tferriss clearly driving book sales

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 years

If your investment write up is based solely on EBITDA multiples and doesn’t consider net income or FCF please put it straight into the trash

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 months

This has got to be a record... MSCI Index is 63% US right now

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

9 months

We are long $BTI and I posted about it the "CIO Corner" section of our website. The stock trades at 7-8x FCF and has very solid momentum in reduced risk products. ESG-focused investors seem to be ignoring it to their detriment.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 years

A 6.5x PE in today's market?? We took a new position - Imperial Brands.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 years

There is something so comforting about a company you are short starting their press releases with "BOCA RATON, Fla"

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 years

Third Point's slide deck on Sony $SNE is a tour de force. What I find most interesting:

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 months

Super interesting... $PYPL paying their bonuses in cash this year, not stock. Relatedly? The company won't adjust for SBC in non-GAAP EPS any more starting Q1 '24

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 months

Do people realize that Chase Coleman’s former assistant / chief of staff wrote a book about her time there?? Private Equity: A Memoir

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Private Equity: A Memoir

Private Equity: A Memoir

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 months

Reminder that investing is hard. Starboard Value put out a 300-slide deck on Darden Restaurants $DRI in Sept 2014 They argued they could cut costs of $200-300m in the core business and drive EBITDA from $750m estimated in 2015 to >$1b. They also argued

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 years

We took a position in Netflix recently…. Here’s why

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 years

Remember, you can be wrong about being wrong. Everyone praised @BillAckman for pulling the plug on $NFLX when the stock tanked... but at least so far this has been a mistake. Stock is up about 50% since then, market is down 10%

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 years

“People coming out of biz school won’t look at things >20x earnings” - @GavinSBaker …Later in the same magazine biz school kids pitched stocks at 90x and 37x earnings)

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

1 year

So am I getting this right- FRC borrowed $100b in the quarter at around 5%… This will cost them over $1b per quarter and wipe out ~100% of net interest income?

@modestproposal1

modest proposal

@modestproposal1

1 year

You will never see anything like this again because nothing like this will ever be allowed to persist again

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

4 months

Is Yum China $YUMC the only Chinese ADR actually returning ~100% of earnings via buybacks and dividends? $800m in profits and $800m in dividends and buybacks last year. And then returned $745m in Q1 2024 alone...

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 years

Many interesting slides in the JPM Q2 guide to the markets. Here are a few that caught my eye. 1) Debt to EBITDA by size and style box... large caps have the least debt 2) Valuations by sector... who is paying 17x for energy and 19x for utilities names? Not me...

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 years

This is an actual SEC filing $PSTH

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

17 days

Saying it “costs $300k” in legal fees to get a hedge fund launched is simply not true. Its like saying a coffee costs $10. Yes you can pay that much if you want but cheaper options are available. Onshore or offshore? BVI or Cayman? Complicated strategy with extra risks

@christinaqi

Christina Qi

17 days

Yes! You can have a profitable strategy, but you can't launch a fund unless you have over a million in working capital (probably more these days). The legal setup cost is like $300k, I've heard lawyers quote over $500k for crypto funds. I had an old Youtube video which lists all

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

10 years

"honey, gonna be late. WIth traffic its going to take me about 4 hrs, 32 min and 17 seconds to drive home tonight" @HardcoreHistory

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

10 months

I haven't heard much about Jeff Ubben lately. His new firm "Inclusive Capital" took a 500m EUR stake in Bayer AG in Jan. Says the stock has "3 or 4 discounts". Currently the stock is back to 2010 levels (even lower if you don't adjust for dividends)

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 years

Q2 letter is out! Looks at inflation and internet rates Reviews our $HCA thinking Shorts mentioned: $AFRM $SKLZ $GME $MSTR

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 years

Q3 letter is out! Topics: Value stock quality: as good as in the past? (ROE, leverage, growth, etc) Long: hospital operator $HCA Long: Canadian cable co $CCA.CN New short: drink bottler $COKE PS: credit to @UpslopeCapital for the $COKE idea

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 months

It's important to use logic when evaluating market commentary. For example, Pabrai had a basket of Japanese net nets 2010-2013. For some reason he bailed on the strategy after generating tiny returns, saying that it hadn't been the right type of "market conditions" for net

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

6 years

$RICK is basically a strip club PE firm. But unlike KKR etc, RICK is still acheiving 1970s multiples of 5.0x EBITDA bc they are the only buyer. And they can usually finance their deals at ~8% or less. This recent deal will prob generate a 30% cash ROE on the $7.5m equity check

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 months

Dell'Oro is apparently projecting data center capex to grow from $260b in 2023 to almost $600b by 2028. But $GOOG $META $AMZN $MSFT capex projections are for much lower growth.... Which side is correct? Or will other companies really take up this slack?

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

7 months

Todays move in $META is almost 100% of the stock price at the bottom. Wild times.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

1 month

Anyone look at Grail inc $GRAL? Illumina acquired it for $7b but FTC made them spin it off. Trades for $500m market cap today. Grail is developing an early detection cancer test. If you want 200 pages on the industry, see here:

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

1 year

Just posted our May 2023 investor letter. Discussed $META $CCA.CN $KRE $BOL.FP $AAF.LN short $RUN Giant disclaimer below! FV performance is shown net of a 1% management fee and 10% performance fee. Available for Qualified Clients only as SEC rules do

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 years

Q3 2022 letter is live. See if you can spot the typo… Discusses macro “Fed call”, $RICK $NFLX $TME $TWTR

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

4 years

This market is just like ‘08 except this time I have a five year old child heckling me while I put in trades.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

6 years

$SPOT S-1 learnings: 1) Gross margins ~20%, why do artists complain about how much they are paid by SPOT? 2) They use Google Cloud not AWS 3) Their algo-generated playlists acct for 31% of listening minutes (!) 4) US Radio ads are a $14B mkt

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

22 days

Berkowitz was on @businessbrewpod and he DID NOT ADMIT HE WAS WRONG ON SEARS. It was all the boards fault: they didn’t pivot to real estate quick enough. Pure hubris IMO. He’s still wedded to the idea even after it went BK. Meanwhile, here’s the chart of the SHLD RE spinoff:

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

8 months

Kinder Morgan $KMI total returns since Rich Kinder's comment on 1/15/2014 of "you sell, I'll buy, and we'll see who comes out best in the long run." I guess we found out, and the answer was not Rich Kinder. KMI -16.5% SPX +209.6%

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

11 months

Chap 1of Lewis SBF book: “He often cancelled appointments because he didn’t care how his actions would effect other people” A few pages later: “He rejected libertarianism bc he just cared so much about other people” 🤔🤔🤔

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

1 month

This is an important slide -- after Louisiana improved enforcement of FDA vape product regulation, Vuse volume was +23%

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 years

Updated thoughts on Bollore, which received a EUR 5.7b bid for its African operations:

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

8 months

As a value investor, sometimes you can catch a beaten-down growth stock if you are smart and lucky. Just know that inevitably, when that stock approaches fair value and you sell it, it will spike 10% on the next earnings release. $NFLX

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

10 years

@dccommonsense Calvin and Hobbes version of the last Common Sense podcast: http://t.co/tZZR76hADa

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

4 years

I wrote some thoughts on the $WMG IPO and comparisons to Vivendi / UMG $VIVHY

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 years

Overdue Q1 letter posted to the blog: $FB $BKNG $FOXA $AAPL

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

1 year

This Japanese company discloses the number of employee colonoscopies in the AR

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

6 months

Bloomberg transcript has me as @Adam_Wyden 's analyst lmao

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 years

We are short $DNKN for clients. TL, DR: 1) low-vol strategies pushing up valuations for co's like Dunkin 2) Trades at 26x PE and 30x FCF despite meager growth 3) Growth challenges likely to continue due to competition from $MCD, $SBUX, Panera, $WEN

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

11 months

5 straight quarters for $NFLX where FCF = net income It's kind of insane that a business like $NFLX became an accounting test at the bottom... if you could see that their amortization schedule made sense it was a screaming buy, but it was not easy to get there.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 years

A CMU poker bot beat some human pros in a 6 max game. This is a big deal - AI had previously beat humans in a head to head game, but a 6 player game has exponentially more possibilities. Here are some thoughts from a former pro poker player (me):

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Carnegie Mellon and Facebook AI Beats Professionals in Six-Player Poker - News - Carnegie Mellon...

An artificial intelligence program developed by Carnegie Mellon and Facebook AI has defeated professionals in no-limit Texas hold'em poker.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

4 months

What are the best books on short selling to have incoming interns read? Art of Short Selling Dead Companies Walking... Is this one any good?

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Short Selling: Finding Uncommon Short Ideas (Columbia Business School Publishing)

When an investor believes a stock is overvalued and will soon drop in price, he might decide to "short" it. First, he borrows an amount of the stock, and then sells it. He waits for the stock to tank...

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

6 months

Listening to this @bizbreakdowns on $DHI. Lots of discussion about optioning land (vs buying) and how this allows them to be capital light and have higher ROEs. Can someone explain to me why this is so easy? Rarely can you change the nature of the business by optioning vs

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 years

I’m gonna try this one today…

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

1 year

New blog post on Airtel Africa $AAFRF -African telecom firm w 140m subs -EBITDA doubled since '17 to $2.1b -Mobile money segment has tremendous momentum -9x earnings and 6x EBIT -long runway of growth Our base case is 23% IRR.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

1 year

TIL that Duolingo is 1) a public co w $6b market cap $DUOL 2) absolutely dominant over Babble and others

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

1 year

Is it me or has $UHAL been killing it the past few years (decade?) Operating income is up 3x since 2018 and an increasing portion of earnings comes from storage revenues, which should convert to FCF pretty well. Looks like it trades at around 12x PE

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

7 months

Two annual reminders on this shameless repost... 1)🚨Past performance is not indicative of future results! 🚨 2) Not all clients are 100% in Fundamental Value (FV) and some have adjusted versions of it. With that said, please see our Q4 letter here:

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 years

Serious question - how is it that "compounder" lists don't include $PGR? Car insurance is not software, but...

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

1 year

Can I go back in time and not trim any $META?

@LibrarianCap

Librarian Capital

2 years

$META bull case from Bireme Capital - Current valuation 5x EBIT, taking 2021 ex-metaverse EBIT as normalized EBIT - $760 exit price in 2028 if ad market grows at 15%, META has 22% share, 46% margin & 20x P/E (NB. $GOOG has no $AAPL/TikTok risks but is at 13x Google Services EBIT)

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 months

Has anyone followed Seritage $SRG closely over the last few years? What happened? Did the buyers for empty Sears boxes simply not materialize?

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

7 years

Few have the mental fortitude to pull this one off— buying back a stock much higher than you sold it. From Vulcan Value. $GOOG

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 years

We wrote something for the blog: “Pounding the table on Meta”

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 years

What’s a company you hate to own but valuation is forcing you?

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

11 months

Filed under: irrational things investors have learned due to small sample sizes and market cyclicality

@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor

@junkbondinvest

11 months

Things every investor learns at some point in his/her career: 1. Avoid emerging markets 2. Avoid small caps 3. Avoid value stocks 4. Sell your losers aggressively

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

4 months

Occasionally lawsuits create great public documents to learn from (as discussed by @BillBrewsterTBB and @ElliotTurn ). What are the best ones? For example, in the Dell Appraisal case back in 2016, Vice Chancellor Laster issued a 115-page opinion discussing behind the scenes

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

4 years

Our $GSHD short has taken a strange turn

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 months

@VAntonFreeman Unfortunately I don’t know if there is a lesson. I think in general people learn too many lessons from their own mistakes .

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 months

“I eat so much in Europe but still lose weight! The food in the US is such trash.”

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 years

Our Q4 letter here. Mentions our best performing Q4 long: a shopping center REIT called Kite Realty $KRG. Also has brief discussion of $DNKN short.

@BiremeCapital

Bireme Capital

5 years

Should investors have seen the coronavirus crash coming? No. Should they have been positioned conservatively anyway? Yes. Read more in our quarterly report. @evantindell

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 months

Paris Baguette has almost 4,000 units and $2.7b in total sales?? 🤯🤯🤯🥖🥖🥖

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 years

Posted a Bollore pitch on @SumZero Monday. The majority of it is about the music industry, which has become the most important long-term driver of value for the company. $SPOT $NFLX $VIVHY

@BiremeCapital

Bireme Capital

5 years

Bollore's stock price suffers from an enormous misperception regarding its share count. We've created a clear and intuitive graphic that makes our case. Read more: @evantindell

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 years

Let's talk again about $NFLX amortization. I see a lot of ppl worrying about it, but v few actually going deep on it (at least on here). Here's an example of the questioning:

@CapitalShipyard

Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

2 years

So now $NFLX is at 21x earnings, but that assumes the amortization of intangibles is correct If the $32B of intangibles should amortize by an additional 10% per year, the PE is closer to 58x How do smart bulls think about this?

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 years

What would you pay for this growth profile? Does 10x EBITDA sound right? -The industry is internet-related (some advertising, some subscription software rev) -2x EBITDA of net debt -Capex req are low (EBITDA converts pretty closely to FCF) My take here:

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 years

Always remember that this guy called traditional value investors "morons" less than a year before all his stocks crumbled.

@BW

Businessweek

3 years

EXCLUSIVE: SPAC king Chamath Palihapitiya is doing just fine, even as the bubble begins to burst Read The Big Take ⬇️

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 years

Reposting an old writeup on Bollore, which owns roughly 30% of Vivendi, which owns UMG, which is getting a big new investor in $PSTH. UMG EBITA is +50% since I wrote this

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

5 years

Anyone w thoughts on $CVET? Spinoff of Henry Schein $HSIC. The company sells consumables, equipment, and software to Vet offices. Theoretically a play on increased animal health spend. Stock is -80% for 2019 as they took guidance from ~$245m to ">$200m". ~11x EBITDA today.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

7 years

I’m enjoying “Emperors of Chocolate”. Smart, deep look at Mars and Hershey by one of the only people to ever get access to Mars employees

@patrick_oshag

Patrick OShaughnessy

7 years

Going to read a book a day this week away from kids. What is the most interesting non-fiction you’ve read that is a “deep” instead of “broad” book?

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 years

DALL-E generated image of @jason jumping on a grande cappuccino for @elonmusk

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

4 years

Here's an idea everyone will hate HR Block HRB -Tax prep business to the masses -7500 locations -small digital presence (they call this "DIY") -$3b revenue and $800m EBITDA (3 year avg) -$400m in FCF $3.6b market cap (PE of <10x) and $5b EV (<7x)

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

1 year

Any compelling Macy’s $M pitches recently? $700-900m of net income basically every year since 2017 (excluding 2020). Market cap is $4b. Apparently they have a $2b buyback auth in place? I’m old enough to remember when people thought the RE was worth $20b.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

7 years

Bireme's first blog post, my attempt to refute a short thesis on $AAPL:

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

6 years

Posted the Q4 letter to the blog: Discusses $AAPL $FB $BAYRY

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

3 years

Holy moly can Einhorn / Greenlight get any more old economy? -air fright companies -copper mines -chemical plants -cement -coal -natural gas -paperboard Literally all of these industries existed 100 years ago.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

1 month

Two key slides from Bollore's H1 results 1) They bought more UMG on the sell off. Also, they have been cleaning up some of the smaller holdcos via mergers and share swaps. 2) The shares have barely moved since 2015, despite massive increase in intrinsic value.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

7 years

TIL: Publix is an outrageously good business, and owned by it's employees. $2B of profit last year and 5+ yrs of consecutive SSS growth.

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

6 years

5) Actually the algo-generated playlists are 17% and hand-curated are 15% 6) $SPOT database on user preferences is 200 Petabytes (vs $NFLX at 60 Pb) 7) Former NFLX CFO from 1999-2010 is CFO of SPOT 8) Sarandos is on the SPOT board as well 9) Daniel Ek does not take a salary

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

8 months

@orrdavid Also- slugging percentage matters a lot as many have noted

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

1 year

A few people have sent me this so here are a few takeaways I had: 1) Fully on board for $BOL.FP valuation at >13 EUR per share 2) $VIV.FP still looks cheap as well - unlike some legacy TV businesses, they've actually grown subscribers (we don't own it) 3) Interesting $UMG

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@East72Dynasty

East 72 Dynasty Trust

1 year

East 72 Dynasty Trust June 2023 Quarterly Report #2 . A significant 27 page feature on $BOL.PA Bolloré - its history and satellite companies $UMG.PA $VIV.PA and the amazing $ODET.PA

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

4 months

An increasing part of my day is spent having a bake off between Perplexity Pro (Claude, at my biz partner's rec), CoPilot / ChatGPT, Gemini Advanced, and now Meta AI

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

4 years

@CaffeinatedInv1 File this thread under "thoughts people have after value hasn't worked for a 15 yrs" -always buy the highest growth companies -never look at banks, energy, or cyclicals -never invest in small companies -never invest in asset plays -never invest in messy balance sheets

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

6 months

Whatever happened to the Fannie Mae $FNMA story? Stock is up like 5x since July 2023

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

4 years

Wild ass guess for 2020 $BKNG numbers: -Sales Down 15% in Q1 -Down 40% in Q2 -Down 10% in Q3 -Up 10% in Q4 Marketing costs flex downward, all else grows '20 EBITDA down 29% to $4.1b EPS down 30% to $68.44 Thoughts?

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Evan Tindell

2 years

Fortune wrote another piece on our $TWTR bet

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@evantindell

Evan Tindell

2 years

@DougPolkVids Wait til this guy hears about the federalist papers

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