What’s interesting to me is how pretty much all of the Springfield narrative is a lie:
1) The Haitians aren’t illegal immigrants
2) They moved over 4-6 years, they weren’t dumped
3) Property values haven’t risen rapidly
4) Crime hasn’t risen rapidly
5) They don’t eat cats
George Santos might just be the most interesting Republican heading to Congress:
*Openly gay
*Jewish (Ukraine) and Hispanic (Brazil)
*First-generation American
*Speaks Spanish and Portugese
*Mom was in South Tower on 9/11
*Pro-DACA, pathway to citizenship
*Pro-SALT
*Was at J6
Ilhan Omar just casually tweeting out an insane video that claims that Israel was a British conspiracy to steal the land and money from Arab people, the “original landowners” of Palestine, and force Jews into military service.
What the hell?
About the only negatives I can see actually being reported by credible outlets are a housing crunch, school overpopulation, and a lack of Creole translators. Most of the anti-Haitian points were first raised by actual Nazis and racists.
This proto-pogrom is built on lies.
They’re coming out with these “fantasies” because Trump’s lawyer literally argued, in front of the court, that assassinating political opponents is an official act.
The only one fantasizing here is you.
Kari Lake just endorsed this guy, who has said:
*"I ain't owned by the Jews"
*"I'm not beholden to Jews or any other group"
*"The Jews, Illuminati, Covid shots kill. Rothschilds. Communists. Woke pastors. Social gospel. Christ will chuck a bunch of stuff in the fire."
I am honored to be endorsed by the
#AmericaFirst
(and Trump-endorsed) warrior who drained the McCain swamp in Arizona and is now the GOP nominee for governor in Arizona - Kari Lake. She is a rising star and her endorsement is a big deal! Thank you, Kari!
"We need fighters /1
Lake also still refusing to accept her own election loss.
CNN: do you still believe that your election was stolen?
Lake: "We still have some court cases"
#AZSEN
Why would any Republican be bipartisan with Democrats again after what they did to Meijer? The moral of the story here is no good deed goes unpunished.
He’s done this for the last three years, it’s always on March 31st, which happens to be the same day as Easter this year. That’s what is called a coincidence. Out of all Easters from 2000 on, only five overlap.
Not everything is designed to intentionally insult you.
Everyone: Biden should really reach out to disaffected Republicans and center right conservatives who are uncomfortable with Trump.
Biden: Easter is now Transgender Day of Visibility. Best I can do.
In one of the more ironic elections in North Carolina history, Republican John East won the 1980 Senate election but lost every congressional district in the East.
The 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections were all legitimately decided, free and fair elections, and believing this should be a baseline expectation in American politics.
Final word - you can’t speak constantly about the urgent need to protect democracy and put country above party, and then fund an election denier’s campaign against a pro-democracy Republican and expect people to take your claims seriously.
Look, I'm a fiscal conservative - really fiscally conservative, actually - but I'm not sure attacking Tim Walz as "Tampon Tim" is a good idea.
Giving public schools tampons seems as common-sense as giving them toilet paper, paper towels, or soap. It's kind of an essential thing.
Really frustrating to see the New York Times promote a grifter like Allan Lichtman, who claims to have predicted every election when, in reality, he retroactively changed his models after 2000 and 2016 to claim he was right.
This might just be the worst VP selection in modern history. He's unpopular in the region he was picked to help in, has an extreme tendency to put his foot in his mouth, had two major media blow-ups in the first week, and hasn't excited the base. Oof!
If JD Vance's popularity in his home region (-16 pts) is any sign, it won't get better for Vance nationally (where he's historically unpopular).
Also, Vance's favorable rating is just 5% with undecideds (i.e. not for Harris/Trump) in the prez race. His unfavorable rating is 29%.
White liberals calling Nikki Haley “Nimrata” has big “Barrack Hussein Obama” energy. There’s no reason for it in either case other than racial resentment and mean-spirited trolling.
States that should be on way for redraws post-Milligan:
Redraw:
*Alabama
High alert:
*Lousiana
Medium alert:
*Georgia
*South Carolina
Low alert:
*Mississippi
*Nevada
*New Mexico
*North Carolina
Trump: I want to be a dictator
Trump allies: Here is our plan to make Trump a dictator
Trump’s lawyer: Political assassinations are fine if the President wants them
Supreme Court: You can’t prosecute a President if the act is “official”
Dang I wonder why people are concerned
Stacey Abrams:
“I did win my election, I just didn't get to have the job."
"We didn't lose. We just didn't get the governor's mansion.”
"I do have one very affirmative statement to make. We won,”
More Abrams, still explaining why she didn’t concede in 2018:
“My point was that the access to the election was flawed, and I refuse to concede a system that permits citizens to be denied access. That is very different than someone claiming fraudulent outcome.”
Kirsten Sinema is probably the most effective Democrat in the Senate - she’s secured bipartisan bills tackling gay marriage, infrastructure, and chips, while generally voting for all major Democratic priorities.
Pretty remarkable that this isn’t enough for Democrats now.
I’d you’re a serious Republican who wants to win, hard to see tonight as anything other than an unmitigated disaster.
It’s also showing - abundantly clearly - what works and what doesn’t. NC/GA/FL/TX turn red while gadfly populists in PA/MI/OH/NH get thrown out.
Meijer voted for impeachment. He voted for BIF. He voted for the gun control bill. He voted for the January 6 commission.
Democrats aggressively funded an election denier (on false grounds) to take him out. They will then run ads about how Gibbs is an extremist.
After her loss in New Hampshire, Nikki Haley took aim at both Trump and Biden: "The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election," she said.
More live updates:
The political center of gravity in the United States is set to pivot sharply away from the Rust Belt and towards the Sun Belt.
Democratic-won states here are expected to lose 14 EVs in 2032, while Republican-won states are set to gain 14.
Uh no, it literally wasn’t. It was the idea that monarchs got their power from God and could thus be only accountable to God. The monarch is thus subject to no earthly power and should have absolute power.
This understandably led to absolutist despots.
Daily Wire host: "We view divine right monarchs as being absolute tyrants, wielding -- that isn't true. The idea of divine right monarchy is, actually, that there is a limit on the power of the monarch"
Very interesting decision to cast Raskin - who said Bush v Gore was worse than Dred Scott, wrote in a book that the 2004 election was stolen, and voted to overturn the 2016 election - as a defender of democracy.
I am thrilled to have the endorsement of my friend,
@jamie_raskin
. He is a fierce defender of democracy and a passionate advocate for Marylanders and I can’t wait to get to work with him to deliver for all Americans in the Senate.
6.5% isn’t a typo btw. Ohio Gov. Robert Taft literally had 6.5% approval according to at least one poll, quite possibly the least popular Governor ever
Our focus should be on getting Ukraine & Russia to the negotiating table to avoid a nuclear war. Not this foolish, hollow bravado.
No aid to Ukraine unless they are at the table. Offer Putin an out if he begins a withdrawal / ceasefire.
@fedtanyl
Is he?
He's done a pretty awful job as Transportation Secretary, and his only experience before that is being the mayor of the country's 314th largest city. It's also a doubling-down on the ticket's existing ideological impulses.
It didn’t have to be this way. Nobody forced the state GOP to give up and endorse him a year before the primary. They chose to do it, he’s down double-digits in the polls now, and it might get worse.
Some major drama is shaking out in NC's gubernatorial race. Sources tell me a CNN story is forthcoming. Robinson's two campaign events today in Vance and Warren counties have been cancelled. Robinson's closest advisers & Robinson himself aren't taking my calls for comment.
#ncpol
DeSantis started this race with around 33-40% of the vote, primarily off the support of college-educated and anti-Trump Republicans.
His campaign bafflingly pivoted to populists and hardcore Trump supporters. Not only did this not work, he lost his own base and is now 3rd. Oof.
We’ve had so many transportation issues in the last two years that the decision to put Buttigieg in charge seems more and more bad every day.
Both parties need to stop using cabinet positions as patronage or stepping stones to other offices.
George H. W. Bush has gotta be one of the weirdest presidents ever
*Wins first term in landslide
*Briefly most popular President during Gulf War
*Defeated for re-election in a three-man race
*Leaves office with above-water approvals
*Third-most popular president since Nixon
Update: I interviewed
@RepNikkiB
over breakfast at
@WaffleHouse
this morning. She has two in her district along with four Cracker Barrels. And no Whole Foods or Trader Joe’s — a unique combo for a Democrat. We talked about that and how Dems can win in more Waffle House districts.
BREAKING NEWS — Gov. Gavin Newsom’s appointee to the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat will be free to run for a full term in 2024, & there will be no precondition that this is a temporary replacement.
Senate Dem leadership expects swearing-in by midweek.
From me &
@JakeSherman
Yes, you can call my face weird. It won't be the first or last time I've heard it. But my message is not to you.
My message is to anyone else who has been put down or called "weird" because of their experiences or who they are...
I say to you: do not allow others to define
One thing I think people don't realize is how relatively new the highly-focused-Electoral-College campaign is. In 1976 for example, 20 states were within five points.
It’s hard for me to think of another time in American history where a party immediately consolidated behind a scandal-plagued nobody who ran 16 points behind baseline in a swing district and lost by double-digits, but here we are.
In 2022, national Democrats lied about
@JRMajewski
and his service record. Too many Republicans ran from these dishonest smears instead of fighting them.
JR is running for Congress in 2024 and I'm proud to support him.
Filing articles of impeachment against SCOTUS because they ruled in a way you don't like is an actual assault on our system.
It's indicative of someone who does not take their oath to the Constitution seriously and doesn't belong anywhere near a position of authority.
This is an extremely major unforced error. Legally, Beshear is required to appoint a Republican.
If you’re a Democratic governor in a Trump+26 state, you should not ever be floating appointing a Democrat - let alone breaking the law to do so.
North Carolina’s incumbent Republican Superintendent is on track to lose to a candidate who:
*Has no experience in education (she is a homeschool mom)
*Was at J6
*called COVID vaccine “population control”
*Called for the execution of Barack Obama, Bill Gates, and Melinda Gates
DeSantis's populist, social conservative culture war pivot has not only not gained new voters, it seems to have actively driven away the one group he was genuinely dominating in polls with: college-educated Republicans.
If Tucker is out because of Dominion, this is actually hilarious.
Tucker Carlson privately despises Trump, he would have essentially sacrificed his career for a man he hates.
"We’re gonna showing fucking AIPAC the motherfucking power of the South Bronx," Jamaal Bowman says at this election rally for his campaign at St. Mary's Park.
Voters hate Trump, they hate Trumpism, and they especially hate candidates that try to pitch themselves as “Trump but…”. This has been abundantly clear since the 2018 midterms. Republican primary voters can choose to nominate normal people, or they can choose to lose.
I've seen enough: Janet Protasiewicz defeats Daniel Kelly for Wisconsin Supreme Court. The result flips ideological control of the court from conservative to liberal, a huge victory for the pro-choice side.
BREAKING: The Arizona Supreme Court has ruled that the state's pre-Roe ban on nearly all abortions is enforceable. The 1864 law only permits abortions to save the life of the mother.
Moral of the story here: when you're one seat away from superminority status, don't needlessly target and single out members of your caucus for public shaming and cricitism. It can lead to something you like even less happening.
#ncpol
+5 isn't nearly as bad as Vance's double-digit underwater ratings, but it's probably the second-worst VP launch of all time.
Kamala Harris and Sarah Palin were at +30 after they became the VP nominees, for comparison.
NEW:
@Tim_Walz
net fav rating sits at +5 after Week 1 of campaigning that saw his name ID double (43% to 85%).
Fav shifts are falling along predictable lines, but he's more popular than Vance was after Week 1, per
@MorningConsult
data.
Read more here:
I actually don’t think nominating political outsiders is smart at all, usually. Republicans have kind of become obsessed with this idea since 2010, to the point even career politicians have to say they are “outsiders”, and the result is often nominating insane people.
I get why people think it’s smart to nominate outsiders, but a big reason it’s empirically shown to be a bad idea is that you get unforced errors in the form of random “revelations” and campaign gaffes.
All the natcons are seething in the comments, so it’s time to remind that even a majority of republicans support gay marriage now.
There’s no market for homophobia in American politics now.
This Uganda law is horrific & wrong.
Any law criminalizing homosexuality or imposing the death penalty for “aggravated homosexuality” is grotesque & an abomination.
ALL civilized nations should join together in condemning this human rights abuse.
#LGBTQ
Yes, this is an article from the Heritage Foundation favorably citing Joseph Stalin as a defense to a proposed policy agenda of repealing no-fault divorce.
These people are so weird.
Stuff like this is why the hard left hates Sinema. She’s managed to secure a slew of bipartisan legislation that unequivocally shifts the country to the left, and did so simply by talking to Republicans.
It’s an indictment of the organizer progressive model.
Sinema: “You can make a poster and stand out on the street, but at the end of the day all you have is a sunburn. You didn’t move the needle. You didn’t make a difference … I set about real quick saying, ‘This doesn’t work.’”
If this is the case, future Ukraine aid is dead. This is like the third time (after BID and CHIPS) Republicans have stuck their neck out for a bipartisan bill, and then seen Biden change it after the fact to remove what they like.
🚨🚨🚨BREAKING: President Biden tells
@ErinBurnett
that if Israel invades the city of Rafah, the U.S. will stop supplying it with artillery shells, bombs for fighter jets and other offensive weapons
It should come as no surprise that this genius managed to lose, twice, a Bush/McCain/Romney House district, even in the red wave of 2010.
The alt-right aren’t sending the best people.
Only 37% of Russians attend church services sometimes compared to 66% of Ukrainians.
Somewhere around 87% of Ukrainians are Christian compared to 47% in Russia.
Proselytizing is forbidden in Russia
Ukraine is by every measure a vastly more religious society than Russia.
.
@TuckerCarlson
: "Russia made the perfect villain. It was a white Christian country with a traditional social structure...everything the Democratic Party...opposed."
maybe running a guy who wants to ban immigration, has a sketchy af job, is a complete and total weirdo with bizarre socialist views, and has no idea what the timber industry is in this seat instead of the reliable conservative incumbent was a bad idea!
Another ~25k votes counted in
#WA03
, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) still leads Joe Kent (R) by about the same margin, 146,372 to 141,413. Kent is running out of real estate to make up this gap.
Would be a big upset for Dems in this Trump +4 seat.
Trump’s 2016 win really was a Pyrrhic victory. Since then, the party has gone from a three-decade run in control of the legislature into virtual irrelevance.
Once GOP allies, DePerno now piling on Karamo too after her Holocaust gun control tweet. "The party will fail because of this. We cannot win elections in two years. We cannot raise money. What is happening is a complete implosion in the Republican Party"
The Arizona GOP really reminds me of how some people in the UK’s Labour Party behave. For a time, it wouldn’t be uncommon to see “fuck off and join the Tories”. Well, they did. Now the AZGOP has done the same to moderate/normal/McCain Rs - and they’ve also left
With all necessary caveats about confidence intervals and there being multiple ways to calculate an average: Nikki Haley has now pulled ahead of Ron DeSantis for 2nd place in 538's national GOP primary polling average:
Under the NC Supreme Court’s ruling, Chief Justice Paul Newby could feasibly strike down Roy Cooper’s veto power as unconstitutional, as the legislature that passed it was gerrymandered.
The Electoral College is a necessity because we don’t have a single national election, we have 51 different ones with 51 different sets of rules.
If we had the same rules in every state, popular vote would be viable. But we don’t, and probably never will.
Populists got control of the Arizona GOP’s ticket in a year 5-7 points right of 2020 and the result is almost unequivocal failure.
The best performer? Boring normie conservative Kimberly Yee, who is demolishing the competition. “Electabros” looking pretty good right now.
Even giving the most charitable bonus to Democrats for the uncontested races, Republicans currently lead the Congressional total vote in Arizona by 7%.
Kari Lake is running 7.5% behind a generic Arizona Republican.
Blake Masters is running **12.5%** behind a generic Republican.
The GOP nominated generationally bad candidates in pretty much every swing state because Trump told them to and lost most of them, with the exception being Vance (who still only barely won, dragging the entire House ticket down with him). Oops!
Even giving the most charitable bonus to Democrats for the uncontested races, Republicans currently lead the Congressional total vote in Arizona by 7%.
Kari Lake is running 7.5% behind a generic Arizona Republican.
Blake Masters is running **12.5%** behind a generic Republican.
If I'm Mitch McConnell and Steve Daines, I'm getting Kimberly Yee on the line and asking here what it would take to get her to run for Senate and promising the full support of the NRSC and SLF in the primary.
Political scientists will be studying the failure of the DeSantis campaign for decades to come. Nothing about this campaign worked, and it will be remembered as a spectacular failure in every way.
The failure of the Ron DeSantis campaign should serve as a lesson to candidates - you can’t beat Trump by running as Trump, but less bad. It appeals to nobody because:
1) Trump voters don’t think Trump is bad
2) Non-Trump voters won’t consider voting for Trumpist candidates
So one of the most bizarre California primary races is in
#CA38
, a majority-Hispanic, Biden+30 district in the San Gabriel Valley where Linda Sanchez is somehow only pulling 53% against a slate of three Republicans. Yikes!
@bonchieredstate
You know why California Republicans did better in 2020 and 2022 than 2018? Because they stopped whining about ballot harvesting and mail voting and actually utilized them. It worked, shockingly enough!
It’s looking increasingly likely Republicans might nominate Majewski, again. If they do,
@Elections_Daily
will be moving this from Tossup to either Likely Democratic or Safe Democratic.
I was proud to campaign with JR last year and stood with him as the left disgracefully tried to slander his service and character. JR is a fighter and he won’t back down!
I’m proud to endorse my friend and fellow veteran
@JRMajewski
for Congress!
And here's the problem: If Trump doesn't win the nomination, what do you think those 24% of Trump-only voters will do? Turn out to vote for Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley in the general election? Doubtful.