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@DecisionDeskHQ
News Network. Contact us: press
@elections
-daily.com.
🚨ED Projection 🚨 We can now call that the GOP has flipped the mayorship of McAllen, TX. This is a somewhat surprising local result in this city of 140,000 that is almost 85% Hispanic.
VIRGINIA: We are now projecting HD-65 for Democrat Josh Cole. This means Democrats will have no less than 50 seats in the House of Delegates, meaning Republicans have lost their majority.
BREAKING: The Virginia GOP will not allow religious Jews who cannot travel due to Shabbat to participate in its convention. There were 38 votes in favor of providing a religious exemption, 28 against, and 3 abstentions. The motion needed 75% in favor to pass.
MAJOR VA PROJECTION: Juan Pablo Segura has lost the Election Day vote to Russet Perry in Loudoun County. We are projecting SD-31 and the Virginia State Senate for Democrats
America's first election results are in... from Guam! Republicans have won the Delegate office for the first time since 1990.
Delegate (FLIP):
Moylan (R) - 52.2%
Won Pat (D) - 47.2%
Governor:
Leon Guerrero (D) - 55.5%
Camacho (R) - 44.1%
Legislature: 9-6 Democratic (D+1)
9:53 PM - Elections Daily can now project that Democrat Jon Ossoff will defeat Republican David Perdue, winning the other Senate runoff and flipping the Senate to Democrats.
#ElectionTwitter
In North Carolina, Republicans swept all statewide races and nearly gained a legislative supermajority. The once-staunchly Democratic east saw 7
#ncleg
districts flip, including Biden+10 HD32.
@decunningham2
explains all the state's election results.
With 70% of the vote in
#RI02
:
Fung (R) - 49.8%
Magaziner (D) - 47.3%
Tons of Cranston outstanding. Providence is 73% in. Fung is in a very good position here.
🚨 ED projection 🚨: Republicans have held the mayors office in Fort Worth - Texas’ 5th largest city. GOP-aligned candidate Mattie Parker has defeated Democratic-aligned candidate Deborah Peoples.
BREAKING: In a 5-2 ruling, the North Carolina Supreme Court has struck down its prior ruling that gerrymandering violates the state constitution.
#ncleg
will be permitted to redraw both legislative and congressional maps.
🚨🚨 Ratings Update🚨🚨
Moving out of the Tossup column, Republicans are now favored in
#CA22
,
#NV03
,
#NVGOV
, and
#TX28
.
Republicans hold the edge in all three South Texas districts.
@JosephSzymanski
explains all in our ratings update article:
🚨 🚨 Ratings Update🚨 🚨
We're shifting Arizona and Georgia into the Leans Republican column. With a national environment increasingly hostile to the incumbent, a Trump win in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin would secure him a victory.
🚨Ratings Update🚨
We're shifting five house races, all towards Republicans - including moving
#CO08
and
#TX34
to Leans Republican. We're also moving
#KSGOV
back to Tossup.
Read our update from
@JosephSzymanski
to find out why:
Michael Cassidy, who may upset Michael Guess in MS-03, has some idiosyncratic views. His website supports banning all immigration for 10 years but also "providing newlyweds with a $20,000 wedding gift, paid back if the couple divorces."
Donald Trump had the best performance of any Republican Presidential candidate in New York City since 2004. Below is a map showing how he did it. He improved on his 2016 numbers almost everywhere, but made huge gains in the Bronx, Queens, and Orthodox Jewish communities.
In Pennsylvania, Cambria County is fully reporting with Republican Caroline Carluccio winning it by 48%. Trump won this county by 38%, so this is a great result for the GOP in a county that is typically more Dem down ballot.
With 100% of precincts in
#TX06
according to
@DecisionDeskHQ
:
Wright (R) - 19.2%
Ellzey (R) - 13.9%
Sanchez (D) - 13.4%
Harrison (R) - 10.8%
Lassiter (D) - 8.9%
Live Midterm Election Coverage - Join the Elections Daily team as we go over the results as they come in and find out which party is set to come out on top.
Results have not come in yet from Alabama
#HD73
. In this 2:1 Trump district, Kenneth Paschal is likely to become the first black Republican elected to the Alabama legislature since Reconstruction.
New York Republicans were the success story of 2022, winning four congressional races while making sweeping gains statewide.
@decunningham2
explains the results of the Empire State's shocking red wave and how Zeldin could have actually pulled off a win.
With unofficial results in from the Senate primary, North Carolina Republicans appear to have outvoted Democrats by 10.6%. Most notably, Biden+14 Forsyth County had a small Republican advantage.
🚨Ratings Update🚨
Our final Virginia legislative ratings update is out! We expect Democrats to win a 21-19 majority in the State Senate and for the House of Delegates to end in a 50-50 tie.
Read the article, where
@JosephSzymanski
explains the changes.
🚨🚨NEW TOOL🚨🚨
With our new Election Shuffler tool, you can model turnout and political shifts in all 50 states based on 2020 presidential election results. Click the link below to test all the possibilities!
BREAKING: Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen (R) is appointing former Governor Pete Ricketts (R) to replace Ben Sasse (R) in the Senate.
Ricketts served as Governor from 2015 to 2023, and had previously run for Senate in 2006.
Final Ratings Update: Elections Daily predicts Republicans will regain control of Congress:
*House - 236R, 199D
*Senate - 51R, 48D, 1 runoff
@JosephSzymanski
explains all the big changes in our ratings update article...
"Despite being chided as the easy pick, Harris offers Biden key unique strengths," writes
@JonMIPol
in his latest article for Elections Daily. Read it to find out why California Senator Kamala Harris might be the best VP choice for Biden.
ELECTIONS DAILY PROJECTION:
We can now project that Amanda Chase will be eliminated after all the votes are counted in round 5. The firebrand State Senator, who branded herself as “Trump in Heels”, will not be the Republican nominee.
The final round will be Youngkin v Snyder.
Pennsylvania Republicans massively underperformed expectations, losing virtually every important race - and potentially the state house.
In his latest article,
@JosephSzymanski
explains what happened - and who caused it.
Kari Lake drove a stake through the heart of the McCain wing, but that didn't lead to a win.
@decunningham2
explores the self-imposed collapse of the Arizona GOP, who seemingly got tired of winning and decided to try losing instead.
NEW: In articles for a now-defunct conspiracy website, Marjorie Taylor Greene fanatically promoted human sacrifice, child rape, Pizzagate, and QAnon conspiracy theories - and that’s just the beginning.
We can project that the recall vote in
#CaliforniaRecall
will fail. These early numbers are nowhere near what would be needed to have a competitive race.
🚨🚨RATINGS UPDATE 🚨🚨
Control of the Virginia House of Delegates moves from Leans Democratic to Tossup.
Read the latest from
@JosephSzymanski
to see which races we've shifted and the current state of the chamber:
Unofficial results in
#CT36
special election show Republican Ryan Fazio defeating Democrat Alexis Gavanter by a margin of 456 votes. This seat voted for Biden by 20 points in November.
🚨 🚨 Ratings Update 🚨 🚨
In light of today's scandal involving Mark Robinson, we're shifting North Carolina's gubernatorial race to Safe Democratic.
We will reconsider this rating if Robinson drops out of the race, which seems unlikely.
PROJECTION: Democrats have flipped the Virginia House of Delegates, with Democrat Michael Feggans beating incumbent Republican Karen Greenhalgh in HD-97.
Alaska House final results:
Mary Peltola (D) - 136,893 (51.8%)
Sarah Palin (R) - 112,255 (42.5%)
Exhausted ballots - 14,675 (5.6%)
Peltola wins a full term.
Final results from the two Alabama special elections:
#SD14
(Trump+41.9%) - 80.4%-19.6% Republican hold
#HD73
(Trump+33.1%) - 74.9%-25.1% Republican hold
Kenneth Paschal of HD73 is officially the first black Republican elected to the Alabama legislature since Reconstruction.
Big warning signs for Democrats in
#CA47
, which is now down to only D+4 while the statewide margin has remained steady at D+23. We have this seat rated as Likely Democratic, but Katie Porter could be far more vulnerable than expected here.
🚨🚨Ratings Update🚨🚨
From
@decunningham2
: With Jim Justice's entry into the West Virginia Senate race, we're shifting it to Safe Republican.
With subpar approval ratings and a rapidly shifting state, Manchin's odds are impossibly poor.
81-year old Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT) announced his retirement this morning. Elected in 1974, he is the last remaining 'Watergate Baby' in Congress. Congressman Peter Welch is considered a top replacement contender. Leahy is PPT and Appropriations Cmmt Chairman.
🚨🚨Ratings Update🚨🚨
We're shifting three House races, two gubernatorial races, and one Senate race this update - all favoring Democrats.
@JosephSzymanski
explains this week's major changes in our latest ratings update.
🚨Ratings Update🚨
With two weeks left, the Virginia legislative picture is becoming clearer.
In the House of Delegates, both parties are favored in 48 seats, with four tossups. In the Senate, Democrats hold a 20-18 edge with two tossups.
NEW:
#NM01
poll from Elections Daily/
@RRHElections
shows a solid lead for Democrat Melanie Stansbury, who leads Republican Mark Moores 49%-33%. 9% of voters remain undecided in this Biden+23 seat
Read our article to find the full crosstabs and questions:
Charles Graham hoped to buck Robeson County's rightward shift with a run for Congress. Instead, he lost his race by double-digits while his 2018 opponent Jarrod Lowery (R) flipped his state house seat by 22 points.
Read more from
@CutlerBryantNC
:
🚨🚨Ratings Update🚨🚨
With Blake Masters once again in striking range, we're shifting
#AZSen
back to Tossup.
Additionally, six house districts shift to the right, including
#NY22
and
#OR05
to Leans Republican. Democrats hold an edge in
#KS03
.
Hey all, it appears that Twitter has lifted the suspension that was placed on us on Election Night. Thank you all for your patience! We’ll be back to our normal schedule soon.
NEW: The 2020 Texas Senate Race broken down by Congressional District. Despite being considered vulnerable, incumbent Republican John Cornyn won by 9.6%, carrying 24 out of 36 districts. He even managed to win TX-15 - which is 82% Hispanic and went for Clinton by 16% in 2016.
NEW: The 2020 Presidential Election in Texas by precinct. While Biden hoped to flip the Lone Star State blue, he fell short by 5.6% in the end. However, the state was the closest it had been on the Presidential level since 1996, as Biden made big gains in the state's metro areas.
ELECTIONS DAILY PROJECTION:
The final three in the NYC Democratic Mayoral primary will be Eric Adams, Kathryn Garcia and Maya Wiley.
Andrew Yang will not be the next mayor of New York City.
#NYCMayor
🚨 Ratings Update🚨
Our inaugural Presidential ratings are live! Six states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - start as Tossups, with another six in the competitive Leans or Likely columns.
Read our full overview:
🚨🚨Ratings Reveal🚨 🚨
@JosephSzymanski
unveils our inaugural Virginia Senate ratings. Democrats are favored in 20 districts, but the road to a majority will be more challenging than expected, and every region will have at least one competitive race.
The final results for Michigan's 13th Congressional District are in thanks to calculations from
@DKElections
:
Biden wins MI-13 79-20 (+59)
Rashida Tlaib wins 78-19 (+59)
No underperformance at all for Tlaib in her deep-blue district.
It looks like Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron has filed the paperwork to run for Governor in 2023, challenging incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear. Cameron is a rising star in Kentucky politics and would likely be a strong challenger in this deep red state.
ELECTIONS DAILY PROJECTION:
Elections Daily can now project that Glenn Youngkin, the former Carlyle Group CEO and political outsider, has won the Virginia GOP nomination for Governor.
Many believed that the Convention would end Youngkin. That did not end up being the case.
Breaking: Sources are reporting that
#WI03
Rep. Ron Kind (D) will not seek re-election.
Kind’s district, based in the Driftless Region in western Wisconsin, was an ancestrally Democratic stronghold but voted twice for former President Donald Trump, most recently by nearly 5%.
In no surprise to most, Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro(D), announced on MSNBC today that he will not run for the open senate seat in 2022. Shapiro is expected to run for Governor, as has been rumored since Governor Wolf was re-elected in 2018.
Another Texas primary stat: Republican turnout in last night’s primary exceeded both the 2018 and 2020 primaries in every TX border seat (
#CD15
,
#CD23
,
#CD28
, and
#CD34
).
NEW: Our final ratings for the two Senate runoff elections in Georgia.
Regular Senate Election (Perdue vs. Ossoff): Lean R
Special Senate Election (Loeffler vs. Warnock): Lean R
Article to come.
🚨🚨Virginia Ratings Update🚨🚨
Governor: Leans Republican
Attorney General: Leans Democratic
Lt. Governor: Leans Democratic
House of Delegates: 50 Democrats, 50 Republicans
Read our final analysis from
@JosephSzymanski
at the link below:
House Republicans are currently carrying the Tarrant County portion of
#TX06
by 7.1% (53.2%-46.1% ).
In November, that portion voted for Joe Biden by 12% and for the House Democratic candidate by 5%.
🚨🚨Ratings Update🚨🚨
We've shifted five House races, four of them to the left (
#CA27
,
#GA02
,
#MI03
, and
#WA03
) and one of them (
#AZ06
) to the right. We've also moved
#WASen
off the board. Read the latest update from
@JosephSzymanski
to find out why:
🚨🚨 Ratings Update🚨 🚨
Janet Protasiewicz is favored to win Wisconsin's April 4th Supreme Court election, flipping control to a new 4-3 liberal majority.
@decunningham2
explains the state of the race in his latest article.
Apologies for our last tweet. Here are the updated (and correct) calculations for the results in NY-14
Biden wins 73-26 (+47)
AOC wins 72-27 (+45)
Still virtually no underperformance for AOC in this deep blue district.
9:44 PM - Elections Daily can now project that Democrat Raphael Warnock will defeat Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler in the runoff for Georgia’s Class 3 Senate race.
#ElectionTwitter
Minnesota’s House of Representatives is currently controlled by Democrats, but Republicans have a good shot at flipping it despite the state's consistently Democratic bent. Read the latest article from
@tencor_7144
to find out why:
Delegates cannot vote on legislation, but have the same powers as other members of Congress in most other respects.
Before this election Republicans held two Delegate offices (American Samoa and Puerto Rico) while Democrats held four (DC, Guam, CNMI, USVI).
🚨🚨Ratings Update🚨🚨
We're shifting 24 House races, almost all of them to the left, as odds of a red wave seemingly wane.
Read the overview from
@decunningham2
to find out the races, as well as why our Senate ratings are stable - for now.
Representative-elect
@jbletlow
appears to have won East Carroll parish, which is 68% black and voted 63-36% for Biden in November. She’s won all three of the Democratic Delta counties (East Carroll, Madison, and Tensas). Really surprising result.
#LA05
🚨 BREAKING 🚨
Elections Daily is happy to announce our inaugural "Underperformer Madness" bracket! 32 of America's most embarrassing candidates go head-to-head in an epic tournament showdown! Polls later today, but for now, a preview of each region...
We’re calling the
#TX06
runoff for Republican Jake Ellzey. He’ll narrowly defeat Trump-endorsed Republican Susan Wright, who was widely considered the frontrunner. This is a substantial embarrassment for Trump and a victory for Dan Crenshaw, who aggressively supported Ellzey.
🚨 🚨 Ratings Update🚨 🚨
Republican odds improve in
#IN01
and
#CA13
, which we now rate as Tossups. Additionally,
#ORGOV
enters the Tossup column.
@JosephSzymanski
breaks down our changes in the ratings update article:
From
@krazgreinetz
: Joe Biden had a very poor performance for a Democrat in New York City, but Congressional Dems held up better. Here's a map showing how their performances compared down to the precinct level. Every single one outran him, save for Nadler, Maloney, and AOC.
With 100% of precincts in, Wisconsin
#AD37
is now a 54.1% to 44.3% hold for Republicans.
Alabama’s
#SD14
has also narrowed to a more reasonable 81.8% to 18.2% Republican edge with 87% of precincts reporting.
ELECTIONS DAILY PROJECTION:
Jason Miyares, who was expected to run away with the nomination, will survive a surprisingly strong challenge from Amanda Chase endorsed candidate Chuck Smith. Miyares will be the AG nominee for the Virginia GOP.
🚨 🚨 🚨 Ratings Update 🚨🚨🚨
Our first Senate ratings for the 2022 elections are live! We have an overview of every Senate election this cycle in the article below:
From
@decunningham2
: A preliminary map of swing from 2020 Presidential to 2022 House.
The biggest Democratic swings came in
#HI01
(16.3%) and
#OH09
(15.9%).
In R v. D races, the GOP overperformed most in
#FL26
(23.5%),
#FL28
(21%), OH10 (20.9%), and
#NY02
(20%).
🚨🚨Ratings Update🚨🚨
We're shifting both of Florida's major statewide races to Safe Republican, and six seats move in the House.
Republicans are now favored in 219 seats - barely enough for a majority.
Read our analysis from
@JosephSzymanski
:
Mary Peltola is the winner of the
#AKAL
special election.
Final results:
Mary Peltola: 48.5%
Sarah Palin: 45.8%
Exhausted ballots: 5.7%
50% of Begich voters went to Palin, 30% to Peltola, and 20% to noboby.
🚨 🚨 Ratings Update🚨 🚨
With just over a week until Election Day, we're shifting 3 Leans Democratic seats into the Tossup column:
#CT05
,
#NY17
, and
#NV01
.
@JosephSzymanski
explains why all three of these Biden-won seats are now on the frontlines:
Breaking: Democrat Tricia Cotham is expected to formally announce her party switch on Wednesday, giving North Carolina Republicans a supermajority.
@decunningham2
explains why this happened - and why it might not be as big a deal as it seems.
#ncpol
Alaska's first ranked-choice election has concluded, and the voters provided a clear mandate: moderate, divided government.
@decunningham2
goes over all the major results in his latest article:
🚨 🚨 Ratings Update🚨 🚨
We're shifting eight House races today, and all but one of these changes benefit Republicans.
Read the ratings update from
@JosephSzymanski
to find out why we've made these changes:
With 64% of precincts reporting, Paschal leads his Democratic opponent 2,014 (75.5%) to 655 (24.5%). Paschal has declared victory.
Thankfully, more than 25 votes show up as having been cast - we deleted an earlier tweet with inaccurate data.
In a shocking announcement, Senator Kyrsten Sinema said she is leaving the Democratic Party to become an independent.
With this Senate seat up in 2024,
@decunningham2
explains how a divided field could help even a subpar Republican flip Arizona.
It’s here! Explore all the redistricting possibilities with our new
#RedistrictingRadar
interactive tool. We’ve created maps for all 50 states in four different categories, with 2020 election results calculated for all fair maps.
BREAKING: The Virginia GOP changes course and decides to allow for religious exemptions for convention goers, specifically Orthodox Jews. They will now be allowed to vote from 3-6 PM on Friday May 7th at a specified location.
🚨🚨Ratings Update🚨🚨
We project that Joe Biden will win the Electoral College 335-203 and that Democrats will gain three Senate seats and nine House seats. We've published a helpful guide of all of our ratings, which can be found at the link below!
From
@decunningham2
: While Joe Biden carried the Tarrant portion of
#TX06
by 12 points, Republicans performed exceptionally well in the special election. Republican candidates combined for an 8-point win over Democratic ones, and the election itself will result in an RvR runoff.
Final results for the
#London
Mayoral election are in. With second-preference votes counted:
Sadiq Khan (Labour) - 1,206,034 (55.2%)
Shaun Bailey (Conservative) - 977,601 (44.8%)
Khan won his previous election 56.8%-43.2%, so this is a slight swing against him.