David Byler @databyler Twitter profile

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David Byler

1 month

I have a substack! It's basically the best stuff I do, collected from the (many) disparate places it lives in the internet: No charge ever No set frequency I keep it short Just all things David Byler!

Byler Updates | David Byler | Substack

The best stuff I do, delivered to your inbox. Click to read Byler Updates, by David Byler, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

davidbyler.substack.com

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David Byler

@databyler

6 years

Me, earlier today: Everyone is talking about Mario Kart! Maybe today will be a good day on Twitter. Me, 90 seconds later:

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

This site, May 2020: "Biden has the most progressive platform of any Democrat in modern history!! 😍😍😍" This site, April 2022: "Hey, ELON -- Democrats have NEVER moved to the LEFT on ANYTHING 😡😡😡"

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

So this is something

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

Seems like Manchin would be a less than perfect Republican

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

Some personal news: we had a baby boy!! I love you all but I’ll be hanging out with him and not here for a while :)

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David Byler

@databyler

8 years

Something Trump says can be 1) troubling 2) liked by 30-45% of the US 3) disliked by maj of voters 4) forgotten in days All at the same time

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

New one on why Warren gets v positive press 1) Obvs her rise is a big story 2) Her view of how politics should work (wonky, policy) matches the press's 3) Her support looks like media + their neighbors 4) She matches an upscale idea of who POTUS should be

Opinion | Why Elizabeth Warren is getting such good press

She has become the media darling of the Democratic field. We all should have seen that coming.

www.washingtonpost.com

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

ANALYSIS: If Ossoff wins more votes than Perdue, he'll become a Senator. But if Perdue wins, he gets another term.

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

Florida was "supposed" to turn blue: it has big cities, a diversifying population, immigration. But instead it went right. New piece on why:

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

"just run again, no matter how badly it went last time" is a lot of political strategy tbh

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

monmouth poll -- percent saying that racial and ethnic discrimination is a big problem in the US jan 2015: 51% jul 2016: 68% now: 76%

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

New piece up on white non-college educated *Democrats* Basically 1) There are waaaaaaay more of them than many think 2) They aren't just confused Republicans 3) Ignore them at your own risk Here's the piece, and now a thread w/findings:

Opinion | Democrats should stop chasing Trump’s base. They have their own white working-class...

Most popular narratives leave white working-class Democrats out of the national conversation — but they're a huge group who will have a lot of sway in 2020.

www.washingtonpost.com

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

idk much about amy coney barrett, if she's a good person, what she means when she uses specific terms etc but FWIW "Kingdom of God" is a pretty common christian phrase in my experience. if it sounds foreign, scary, etc may be worth asking a christian friend what it means to them

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

andrew yang and pete buttigieg are definitely archetypes of people i hung out with in college swalwell is the archetype of the dude i did not know, somehow showed up in the middle of otherwise fun conversations, acted like he knew everyone and interrupted a lot

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

what democrat would watch the last few senate cycles and willingly open up a MN senate seat

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

My meta theory on Trump is still that he never really updated his playbook/personality/strategy from the GOP primary. It worked well enough to barely win a general election against HRC, but it hurt him in the midterms and makes him unpopular now. And imo that explains a lot

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David Byler

@databyler

6 years

I have some job news — I’m joining @PostOpinions !! Honestly so so excited about this and can’t wait to start!

Washington Post PR

@WashPostPR

6 years

. @databyler joins @PostOpinions staff as data analyst, political columnist

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

Conspiracy Theory: 1) Terrible Maps posted this, knowing that it's a good map 2) Election Twitter folks QT saying "Noooo it's a good map!! I know things!!" 3) They sit back and go heh heh heh while raking in the engagement

Terrible Maps

@TerribleMaps

2 years

The cretaceous period (145 to 66 million years ago) seashore in Alabama vs how Alabama voted in the 2016 election

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

It's entirely possible that 1) Dems gained about three points after Dobbs 2) On Election Day, there's an R+3 result 3) It would've been R+6 if Dobbs hadn't happened

Benjy Sarlin

@BenjySarlin

2 years

Polls aren't only indicator something's up: Special elections, Kansas referendum, recent voter reg numbers, small donor fundraising, also things we know tend to benefits incumbents like falling gas prices. But even then, not sure how it all translates to midterm turnout.

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

1. It is bad when Republicans nominate election denying / decertifying candidates 2. It is bad when Democrats try to help those candidates, no matter what the rationale These things are both true. This isn't that hard

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

the "y'all line" runs right through WV

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

there's no one "Asian-American" vote

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

if this confirmation happens fast enough, we'll still have time for 2-3 more earth-shattering events before november

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

my future child: dad, where were you when [whoever] won the 2020 election me: *looks into the distance* twitter, kid. twitter.

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

"well 2016 proved that polling is worthless, so"

Paul Graham

@paulg

4 years

What phrase signals that the person using it doesn't understand your field? Example: "Computer error."

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

in 2016, there were two really big forecasting lessons 1) you can't round a 20% chance down to 0% 2) polling movement/error isn't disconnected from one state to the next. if MI moves, WI may be moving too if a model or analysis doesn't get that, that's a huge problem

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

i, for one, look forward to this as a dawn of a new era starting tomorrow, we endlessly relitigate 2020 instead of 2016

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

this is a thought under development and may be dumb but i sometimes wonder if we think too hard about why candidates fail to gain traction like maybe a decent candidate can do his/her best, get lucky/unlucky w/getting media attention and that's most of the story

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

So this seems like a data point that cuts against the argument that Sanders has a low ceiling

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

one thing i keep coming back to is the 2016 GOP primary everyone knew who trump was he was more vulnerable then than at almost any other time many in the GOP wanted him gone and almost everyone made *awful* moves/mistakes such a big failure, w huge consequences

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

if you're wondering why trump has a greater than 0 win prob, look at the middle column here. a poll error that makes this race *competitive* or even gives trump a win is still possible

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

If a poll makes you feel bad - Find a weird cross-tab, yell about it - Emphasize the early vote instead - Predict how polls will err, in detail and w/certainty - Look at a poll that makes you happy instead - Say the poll is wrong, w/no explanation All good, healthy things to do

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

biden did not gain back blue collar portions of the midwest that obama won in 2012 educational polarization continues, despite Ds picking a candidate whose strategy was to win by slowing it down

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

My level of surprise tonight if _______ wins Sanders😐 Biden😐 Buttigieg😐 Warren😐 Klobuchar🤔 Anyone else🤯

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

would be kind of funny if after all of this Biden just cruised through, got the nomination and won the popular vote by 6 or something not a prediction that will happen obvs. Just thinking about how what has seemed like The Darkest Timeline could become The Most Boring Timeline

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

You're a pro-life R in Dec. 2021. God comes to you in a dream and says "In a year, you can have Senators Herschel Walker, Blake Masters and Adam Laxalt, plus 15 extra Republicans in the House majority OR Roe is gone but Dems keep Senate" Pretty obvious which one you'd prefer

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

the realignment is real in texas biden did better than obama in areas w lots of college grads biden did worse than obama in highly hispanic areas

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

The "Buying Greenland Is What White Working Class Voters Wanted All Along" take is just sitting there, waiting to be written by whoever types fastest and loves clicks the most

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

If someone On Here says "This ad is very effective!" there's a 90-95% chance they just personally enjoyed the ad and have no idea if it'll move votes

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

Also I hadn't visualized it like this before but oof the Senate polling in 2020 was rough

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

looks like the "amash will have no effect" camp was very correct

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

buttigieg speaks in a foreign language is basically the free space on the bingo card tbh

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

Every quantitative indicator looks meh to bad for Republicans -- except for primary turnout. Basically if you add up turnout in all the primaries AND control for the effect of Dobbs, Trump's civil war -> there's evidence of a GOP advantage New piece:

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

If you're a D who thinks a) The Senate has a very strong, durable pro-GOP bias b/c of small states b) The filibuster should be gone that's fine! but you had best really really REALLY believe in what you're doing right now

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

So this was fun — buttons from before and after McGovern ditched Eagleton

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

if you're mid recession, mid pandemic POTUS who is up for re-election in a month, it's a good idea to do stimulus. it's a really bad idea to stop and voluntarily take blame

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

California's population growth has ground to a screeching halt. Here's why -- housing prices drive people out -- birth rate down b/c of 08 recession + cultural change -- immigration down b/c of 08 recession, immig policy, and more new piece on all of it!

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

one more thought on this -- nobody floats joe manchin as a D potus candidate b/c everyone gets he's too centrist for a primary electorate why people don't apply the same logic to hogan is beyond me

David Byler

@databyler

4 years

thoughts on hogan 2024 *the top three finishers in 2016 were trump, cruz and rubio. moderate lane is narrow *GOP got close in the EC in 2020, may not need/want a trad "electability" candidate *wishy-washy on abortion prob isn't great in a GOP primary

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David Byler

@databyler

6 years

Latest piece is on Texas Senate, and I argue 1) Cruz has been ahead this whole time 2) This election is way more normal/generic than coverage suggests 3) We're obsessed w/Texas b/c we believe that it shows us the future 4) It actually doesn't

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

When Roe was overturned and Rs started facing fallout, they had three options: 1) cross fingers/ ride it out 2) moderate on abortion 3) find an issue that the base likes, but is more popular than full abortion bans Looks like they're going for 3) New:

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

Just gotta convert the 2020 GOP primary to a convention system and he'll be good to go

Ross Douthat

@DouthatNYT

3 years

I'll just say it: Glenn Youngkin should seriously consider running for president in 2024.

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David Byler

@databyler

6 years

You're going to hear a lot of spin today about Saccone being a bad candidate, this election being a fluke, etc. That's not how you should view this race. This huge Dem overperformance is part of a broader pattern that includes generic ballot polls, specials, Trump JA and more

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

Often missed: Republican voters like the post/mid-Trump GOP a lot more than they liked the pre-Trump GOP New piece:

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

alright we're fast approaching the deadest part of the of dead time where everyone is losing their mind waiting and there is almost no new information to be learned

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David Byler

@databyler

1 year

I have a *ton* of data on 1) The Mormon Church's declining/stagnating membership 2) The relative moderation of young Mormons New piece!

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

fwiw i think one big lesson of 2016 was that if a major party nominates a person, they can become president that applied to trump, and it applies to sanders

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David Byler

@databyler

6 years

I love Elections Twitter. I do not like Politics Twitter.

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

biden's vote margin in WI: 20,565 AZ: 10,457 GA: 14,028 NV: 33,596 that's a lot of electoral votes decided by a small margin biden's popular vote is obvs v important for how we all interpret 2020. but so is stuff like this imo

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David Byler

@databyler

10 months

There is only one chart you need to understand Pence dropping out Favorability among Republicans - plummets after Jan 6 - never stops dropping after that

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

looking forward to understanding why the shy trump voters are so much more shy in wisconsin than minnesota

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

-- Trump's endorsement is helpful in GOP primaries -- His endorsement isn't all powerful. Never has been -- Trump is still the dominant figure in the GOP

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

defund the police is not the most popular police reform trying to make mainstream it and/or pushing for more than you think you're going to get (i.e. bargaining) are obvs reasonable strategies but heads up that not all proposals have equal public support

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David Byler

@databyler

6 years

First WaPo piece is up! Basically it's about how the "polls" Cohen tried to "rig" aren't real polls + what the differences are + how not to get confused about fake polls, non-scientific polls, etc on the internet

Opinion | The really scandalous part of Michael Cohen’s poll-fixing efforts

It's bad that Michael Cohen tried to fix online surveys. It would be much worse to mistake such surveys for real polls.

www.washingtonpost.com

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

some personal news

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

probably part of the story of what's happening in he race rn

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

According to voters, Trump moved waaaaay right between 2016 and 2020. Little difference in how voters rated Biden vs Clinton though

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

I don't get the "IF BIDEN DOESN'T RUN IT'S KAMALA AND THEN DEMS WILL LOSE" thing If there's a 2024 D primary, other people will run against her And if she's as bad as everyone says, they'll nominate someone else!

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

so this is striking

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David Byler

@databyler

1 year

New piece! * Roughly eight percent of US adults changed their racial identity w/in a 4-8 year span, according to panel studies * Switching out of Hispanic, multiracial or "other" was common * Switchers often went to the White category * And many voted R

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

will be very interesting to watch demographics finally wipe out the republican party and forever change the landscape of american politics. it sure was crazy when it happened in 2004, 2010, 2014 and 2016.

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

It is almost like nominating inexperienced candidates can lead a party to lose votes

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

guys i have no idea what's going to happen

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David Byler

@databyler

6 years

Gubernatorial elections are so interesting but SO under-covered Prob partially because the categories from other elections (swing state! red state Dem! Obama-Trump district! etc) don't fit as well So I made up some categories for you and described them!

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

i love the "post-trump GOP" discourse as much as the next guy. in fact, prob love it much more. but i'm not sure the GOP will think it needs to change. the senate stuff is looking good for them. also what would the results look like if trump had demonstrated basic competence?

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

we're rightly obsessing over the needle and whatnot in georgia but also pretty good stuff for biden in minnesota

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

so this random tweet might have a longer shelf life than anything else i've written this cycle

David Byler

@databyler

5 years

would be kind of funny if after all of this Biden just cruised through, got the nomination and won the popular vote by 6 or something not a prediction that will happen obvs. Just thinking about how what has seemed like The Darkest Timeline could become The Most Boring Timeline

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

Exactly.

Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

3 years

Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had underwater approval ratings and bad midterms, yet both got reelected. Politics in 2021-22 doesn’t tell you much about politics in 2023-24.

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

It all comes down to turnout But also vote share Really those two things, both of them

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

Warren's base -- more white, more affluent, more educated, liberal Ds -- also look like the friends and neighbors of many people who work in the press It's like the Buttigieg thing @ForecasterEnten pointed out earlier (link in piece) -- media is personally surrounded by her base

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

Lots of people are like "Buttigieg was a Rhodes Scholar! Wow!" But Cory Booker was also a Rhodes Scholar. It's literally the same academic achievement/accomplishment!!

b-boy bouiebaisse

@jbouie

5 years

serious question: beyond some faculty with languages, what is the evidence that Buttigieg is “the smartest?” and what makes his educational background unique from say Cory Booker or Julian Castro or Amy Klobuchar?

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

tough things about polls being off -- in 3/4 of the last elections, they've overestimated Dems. Not wonderful for media trust -- there's not a great alternative. most other stuff has higher error or just isn't meant to gauge the whole electorate -- readers love the horse race

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

Oz could win Pennsylvania by 4 and this website would be like "Wow, only a four point victory?? By my calculations, he underperformed the fundamentals by nine. Terrible candidate."

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David Byler

@databyler

27 days

Final NPI poll: Lake+12 Current results: Lake+13 Proud of our team!

Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot

27 days

I, for one, welcome our new @databyler overlords

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

If you felt like Trump's announcement did not make massive waves You were not fooling yourself

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

what would happen if someone who was at least okay at politics and not terrible like bloomberg spent bloomberg levels of money

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David Byler

@databyler

6 years

Republicans did a LOT worse in the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic in 2018 than 2016. But if you break it down Some signs of GOP resilience in OH + signs MI might be becoming generally swing-ier WI, MN did what was expected PA was really bad for Rs New piece:

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David Byler

@databyler

3 years

VIRGINIA MATH Give Youngkin the best of the Trump and Romney coalitions: In every county, he gets Trump's 2020 margin or Romney's 2012 margin -- whichever is better for him And every county casts about the same % of the statewide vote as in 2020 ---> VA is virtually tied

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

Raw turnout numbers suggest an R+4 to R+5 GOP advantage in the midterms If you're pretty conservative (try to control for Dobbs, Trump vs establishment GOP primaries, etc.) you still get something like an R+2 advantage New piece

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

idaho people, sanders lost idaho

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David Byler

@databyler

8 years

I don't know if the alternate universes where H Clinton or Rubio is President can see us. But if they can, I'm sure they're confused

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David Byler

@databyler

10 months

every person considering a speaker run

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

thoughts on hogan 2024 *the top three finishers in 2016 were trump, cruz and rubio. moderate lane is narrow *GOP got close in the EC in 2020, may not need/want a trad "electability" candidate *wishy-washy on abortion prob isn't great in a GOP primary

‘I haven’t abandoned my principles’: Hogan, pondering challenge to Trump, casts himself as a...

The Maryland governor tells The Washington Post that he is waiting to see how the investigations of the president unfold and may put off a decision on running until the fall.

www.washingtonpost.com

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

Andy Bernard is definitely a Romney-Trump voter who tells people he's a Romney-Clinton voter

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David Byler

@databyler

4 years

every gen x person on twitter is like INSERT 0.7 SECOND LONG GIF OF A RANDOM PERSON SAYING THE WORD YES when they could just type the word "yes"

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David Byler

@databyler

6 years

OKAY so I did a 2020 Senate Piece! Basically my point is that Rs have a worse map this time. Rs defending: CO, AZ, IA, ME, GA, TX Ds defending: AL, MI, NH, MN, VA IDK if those will ALL be real races. But on balance it's a good map for Ds

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

Jan 2041 "Gaetz, once a vocal member of the GOP's far-right wing, is now facing accusations that he is too close to the establishment -- and not conservative enough to lead his party's new House majority"

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David Byler

@databyler

2 years

Rs will win the House popular vote If you're an anti-gerrymander / pro-proportional representation person who dislikes GOP maps and thinks Ds should have more seats... Just think about the consistency of your positions

Washington Post Opinions

@PostOpinions

2 years

No, gerrymandering didn’t cost Democrats the House, @DataByler writes.

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David Byler

@databyler

6 years

There's a TON of media speculation about which Trump Tweets people do/don't like, whether it's all "red meat for the base", etc. YouGov polled national samples on *over 3000* Trump tweets I got the data. Here are some basics:

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David Byler

@databyler

6 years

Trump's base is actually pretty split on how enthusiastic they are about the president. But the large majority of people who dislike Trump strongly dislike him This and more in my latest piece on SurveyMonkey polling:

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David Byler

@databyler

5 years

Some Buttigieg takes The bump is real: see $ + google search + polls He's at worst in tier 2 Awareness of him is higher here than IRL Media is prob demographically closer to his base than Ds Like everyone, his win prob is not high. But he's in better shape than many others

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