Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyvs Twitter profile

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Geoffrey Skelley

7 years

Looking for election results? I made a Google spreadsheet with state-by-state sources for results. Let me know if there's one I missed because I probably did!

Online resources for election results

docs.google.com

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

Gov. Matt Bevin (R) claims voter fraud cost him the election in #KYGov . This argument wouldn't be convincing in the first place because voter fraud is incredibly rare, but it's even less so when EVERY OTHER GOP statewide nominee won.

Marcus Green

@MarcusGreenWDRB

5 years

"We know for a fact that there have been more than a few irregularities. They are very well corroborated and that's alright. What they are exactly, how many, which ones & what effect if any they have will be determined according to law that's well established." 2/2 #KYElections

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

8 years

If you previously believed Nutella was nutritious, I've got some beach front property in Nebraska to sell you.

Business Insider

@BusinessInsider

8 years

This graphic showing what's actually in Nutella might make you rethink nutrition labels

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

2 years

This is just patently incorrect in every way, actually. If you exclude the metro areas for the Bay Area, LA/OC+Riverside/SB & San Diego, Biden still won the rest of the state 58.5% to 39%. And if you excluded EVERY metro area in the state, Biden actually won the rest 48.7%-48.4%.

Antonio García Martínez (agm.eth)

@antoniogm

2 years

California is a red state with three large blue cities. Few in the those blue cities seem to understand this.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

7 years

I 'm still having trouble comprehending this. Literally no one saw this coming. Even the most bullish Dem couldn't have seen gains beyond +10. #VAGov

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

1 year

Vivek Ramaswamy essentially being center stage was not on my bingo board five months ago.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

If you thought President Trump's term ended because of a screenshot of some Department of State notification, maybe take a breath and go for a walk.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

1 month

If she's picked, Harris would be the 1st Democratic nominee from the West in the entire history of the party. She was the party's 1st VP from that region, too. So far, the farthest-west Dems were George McGovern from SD (1972) & William Jennings Bryan from NE (1896, 1900, 1908).

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

8 years

McCain on possibly supporting Tillerson for SecState: "Sure. There's also a realistic scenario that pigs fly."

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

Holy crap Buttigieg's team already bought and it redirects to Buttigieg's website.

Josh For America Exploratory Committee

The official webpage for the Josh Fayer for America Exploratory Committee

joshforamerica.com

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

2 years

#NVSen is basically a wrap as the final mail votes come in. Cortez Masto only down about 800 votes, but with ~67k voets left to tally in Clark & Washoe and her winning a 60%+ clip of those so far, she'll win.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

Quick review of the margins in those races: #KYGov : D+0.5 KY AG: R+15.4 KY Ag Com: R+19.6 KY Auditor: R+14.6 KY SecState: R+4.4 KY Treasurer: R+21.4

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Buttigieg's departure is a good reminder that ranked-choice voting really makes a lot of sense in primaries. That way, tons of voters who've already cast ballots for Super Tuesday could have their alternative choice to Buttigieg count instead.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

Gotta day, my pride for my country just shrank a little seeing that only 48% like Reubens. The best. C’mon people.

Joanna Piacenza

@jpiacenza

5 years

IMPORTANT SANDWICH DATA (h/t @WaltHickey , who supplies all the good snack #s ):

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Thing is, they have weeks. The final results don’t need to be certified until early December, and everything sorted out by Dec. 8 to meet the safe harbor deadline. What we need is a media that isn’t setting unrealistic expectations about unprecedented circumstances for voting.

Josh Kraushaar

@JoshKraushaar

4 years

“Weeks to count influx of mail in ballots” in... PENNSYLVANIA.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

7 years

UVA is taking back UVA tonight #WeAreUVA #Charlottesville

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

Al Gore lost.

CBS News

@CBSNews

5 years

Professor who predicted last 9 presidential elections on how impeachment will impact 2020

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

3 years

Some point out the new Georgia election rules could backfire on Rs by motivating Ds. This is right, to a point. But it's bad to hone in on electoral effects at the expense of normative problem of having one party bent on restricting voting rights & falsely claiming rampant fraud.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Just a reminder: Crowd size, one way or another, is not a useful electoral indicator — pandemic or no pandemic.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

3 years

A generic candidate does not exist, volume 2,102

Kenneth P. Vogel

@kenvogel

3 years

NEW POLL: @JoeBiden would lose badly to a generic Republican, 46% to 37%. But BIDEN would beat leading Republican prospects head to head, including: ➡️ DONALD TRUMP ➡️ MIKE PENCE ➡️ RON DESANTIS ➡️ TED CRUZ

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

2 years

The take that a Dem primary in a safely blue House seat in Cleveland is the most important race of your life is so scorching hot as to rival the Sun.

Cenk Uygur

@cenkuygur

2 years

The @ninaturner race is most important of my lifetime. So I'm going to put in $25K to @RebellionPac , which is significantly painful for me, but we must win! Please chip in whatever you can to match that number. We're going to have super hard hitting ads:

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

I dug into polls to investigate just how much older voters may be moving away from President Trump. At least in national polls since April 1, the answer is “quite a bit” for 65+ & 55+ & “somewhat” for 45-64s/50-64s.

Are Older Voters Turning Away From Trump?

There are different “gaps” in American politics, but one that has consistently shown up in recent presidential elections is the age gap. That is, younger voters…

fivethirtyeight.com

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

The farcical fraud claims are likely for show, but the problem is a huge share of the public believes them. So they damage faith in elections, the most fundamentally important thing we have. Without elections, we can’t choose leaders freely and fairly, or hold them accountable.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Spoiler alert Apparently people missed the part where Joe Exotic abused animals, preyed on 18-year old boys, became a total narcissist, and blew up his own alligator pen.

Patrick Ruffini

@PatrickRuffini

4 years

NET FAV/UNFAV Joe Exotic +7 Carole Baskin -32

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

8 years

Obama bails out auto industry: Boo Trump tries to keep Carrier in US: Yay Almost like all that matters is party ID of pres in question...

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

McLaughlin could be right in the end -- our forecast says there's a 10% chance President Trump wins. BUT this is also the pollster who had Eric Cantor ahead 34 points ahead of the 2014 GOP primary where the House Majority Leader lost by *11* to Dave Brat. So don't bet the house.

Frank Luntz

@FrankLuntz

4 years

Trump pollster @JMcLghln is privately telling people that Trump is ahead in ALL the swing states – including Penn and Michigan, and tied in Wisconsin. I don't believe it. But if he's right, he's a genius. If he's wrong, I wonder if he'll ever work again.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

Whatever you think of impeachment, Andrew Johnson was impeached in March 1868 and his trial in the Senate happened in May 1868, six months before the next presidential contest. So this isn't unprecedented or something.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

BREAKING NEWS to @FiveThirtyEight staff, who always thought it was the number of electoral votes in the Electoral College.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Amazing how so many people seem to know how the GOP convention or the Kenosha situation will affect the polls. I would advise checking back in a couple weeks.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

I was told blue lives matter.

Timothy Burke

@bubbaprog

4 years

Now multiple officers injured.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

3 years

Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had underwater approval ratings and bad midterms, yet both got reelected. Politics in 2021-22 doesn’t tell you much about politics in 2023-24.

Hanna Trudo

@HCTrudo

3 years

New: Dems question whether Biden will actually run in 2024 "If Biden’s approval rating stays where it is, if we have a rough midterm cycle, if he can’t deliver on his entire agenda — is he still considered the most electable candidate?” w/ @amieparnes

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

3 years

I mean, that was *supposed* to be Kevin Faulconer. But the former mayor of San Diego could barely attract Republicans compared to Larry Elder, a conservative talk radio host. Says a lot about the state of the California GOP (and perhaps something about the national party base).

Blake Hounshell

@blakehounshell

3 years

Kind of wonder what would have happened in California if Republicans had fielded a credible alternative to Newsom. Elder was a gift.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

1 year

Hot takeL Every time a pollster includes Michelle Obama in a Democratic presidential primary poll, they should lose a grade point on 538.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

3 years

A terrible idea. Terrible terrible terrible.

Andrew Yang🧢⬆️🇺🇸

@AndrewYang

3 years

75% of Americans are for term limits. We instinctively know that time in DC makes you less connected with what is happening in your community. Term limits would also update our leadership. @Fwd_Party

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

If you're gonna try to burn a pollster for an old poll because you're mad about a national survey and accompanying battleground state polls showing your preferred candidate trailing, don't link to a poll of New York state.

Jason Miller

@JasonMillerinDC

4 years

Clinton Carries 17-Point Lead Over Trump Into Final Days – Siena College Research Institute

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

1 month

The June 27 debate was one of the most consequential political moments in modern U.S. history.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

Because there a bunch of journalists aged 25 to 45 who don’t get his appeal?

The Atlantic

@TheAtlantic

5 years

Joe Biden still appears to be the Democratic frontrunner, writes @IsaacDovere . So why does everyone say his campaign is doomed?

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

2 years

Genuinely thought this was an April Fools joke. But then the New York Times wrote about it.

Sarah Palin Announces She’s Running for Congress in Alaska (Published 2022)

Ms. Palin released a statement on Friday that she was entering the race to replace Representative Don Young, who died last month.

www.nytimes.com

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Biden has about a 10-point lead. Hillary Clinton+Obama never had avg leads that big, and it’s the biggest lead at ~4 months out since Bill Clinton was up 12 in ‘96. Biden’s the only candidate besides Nixon ‘72 & Reagan ‘84 to avg above 50% at this point.

Biden Has A Historically Large Lead Over Trump, But It Could Disappear

Graphics by Jasmine Mithani FiveThirtyEight’s general election polling averages debuted last week, showing that former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive…

fivethirtyeight.com

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Streisand Effect

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

4 years

The ramp that I descended after my West Point Commencement speech was very long & steep, had no handrail and, most importantly, was very slippery. The last thing I was going to do is “fall” for the Fake News to have fun with. Final ten feet I ran down to level ground. Momentum!

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

11 months

Rs are mad that Ds didn’t bail out McCarthy. But McCarthy also didn’t make overtures to them. More broadly, things have been poisoned since Jan. 6, when two-thirds of House Rs voted to reject the 2020 results, right after an insurrectionist mob had threatened members’ lives.

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

11 months

whether you think it's right or wrong, Republicans are going to exact revenge for a long while over the MTV vote. yes, it was an internal party squabble. but the GOP thinks Dems shouldn't have sided w Gaetz. remember: the majority controls the Capitol. Rooms, codels, etc.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Problem for Rs is that, unlike Clinton in 2016, most voters don’t think Biden is going to win. In fact, a small plurality usually say they think Trump will win. Harder to make the “check” case if voters aren’t confident you’ll be providing balance.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

1 year

Yeah, those LCs living with three roommates to afford DC's rent should probably resign to *checks notes* get their boss, a senator, to resign. This is absurd.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

6 years

Some personal news... I'm thrilled to join @fivethirtyeight ! I want to thank the @Center4Politics for being an incredible home for almost 7 years, and @LarrySabato , @kkondik , and others there for their help along the way.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

6 years

Would prefer a slow moment in the news cycle to announce this but since that won't happen for the next 10 years... Thrilled to announce that Geoffrey Skelley ( @geoffreyvs ) has joined 538 as an Elections Analyst! He comes to us from the UVA Center for Politics. Welcome, Geoffrey!

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Yep. Per @fivethirtyeight average, Trump+Biden = 93.5% 57 days out in 2016: Trump+Clinton = 82.6%

Maggie Haberman

@maggieNYT

4 years

Less interest in third-party candidates remains undercovered story line

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

I looked at our historical polling data from 2016 as of same point 4 years ago & compared Clinton to Biden in our current averages. National: Biden +9.1 Clinton +2.1 EVs based on where candidate led by >6.0 or safe for a party (not incl. NE-2/ME-2): Biden 307 Clinton 198

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

6 years

If Dems win the six close CA House races (which seems more likely than not), ME-2 (RCV probably gets it), and the others where they lead but are uncalled, and the GOP wins where they lead, the final House count will be 232-203 Democratic, which would be a D+37 result.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

3 years

Al and John are like, "Alright Joe, guess it's about time we paid off that bet we made in 1987 about which one of us would actually win the presidency."

Kate Sullivan

@KateSullivanDC

3 years

Biden talks to Al Gore and John Kerry as the pivotal COP26 climate summit in Glasgow gets underway.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

1. A Capitol police officer dead 2. A gallows outside the Capitol 3. Chants of hang Mike Pence 4. Zip ties to handcuff people A violent, treasonous mob who should be given no quarter.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Good reminder that Georgia, one of the states Trump maliciously lied about regarding the conduct of its election, is run entirely by Republicans, who are ensuring a fair and accurate count of the vote cast.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Seeing a LOT of "is 2020 really any different from 2016" talk. Trump could win the election, but the polling story is unquestionably different. Compared to Clinton, Biden consistently has had a lot more support and his lead has been far more steady.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

Selfishly as a lover of the history of Senate primary challenges, I want this.

Jonathan Martin

@jmart

5 years

NEWS: @joekennedy told a senior Dem this week that he’s considering a primary vs @edmarkey And Markey sez he’s not retiring Would set up an epic generational battle tween a 4+decade fixture of Mass politics & a scion of the state’s most famous family >

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

I beg journalists covering this to stop using the word “protestor.” We are way past that.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

With no evidence, sitting congressman rejects the popular vote result from a state that happens to be run entirely by Republicans. Guess Brooks is readying for a 2022 Senate bid if Richard Shelby retires.

Mo Brooks

@RepMoBrooks

4 years

IMHO, Joe Biden DID NOT win lawful vote majority in Georgia. Per its right & duty, Congress should reject any Georgia submission of 16 electoral college votes for Joe Biden. That is EXACTLY what I hope to help do. See below lawsuit for more! SORDID!

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

2 years

Unless turnout cratered in Prince William County -- see 2014 for why that is possible -- I think Spanberger will narrowly win #VA07

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

3 years

Considering the near certainty of midterm loss for the president’s party, this doesn’t really add up. Pretty much regardless of what transpired, Dems were going to have a tough time holding Congress. So why not pass some stuff you want while you’re at it? Impossible w/o GA wins.

Josh Kraushaar

@JoshKraushaar

3 years

“The worst thing that happened to Biden was the Ds winning the two seats in Georgia. It raised expectations among some in his party that they could go left legislatively while the political sun was shining when in reality the political math was not there”

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

2 months

Joe Biden's performance will only inflame concerns about his age and fitness for office. However, anyone seriously engaging with the question of Biden stepping aside needs to be frank about the fact that the nominee would likely be Kamala Harris. She's the VP, that's the move.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

Hahahaha what? Winning is the goal, and beating two opponents in their home states could compel them to drop out. For Sanders, that especially makes sense regarding Warren.

Boston Globe Opinion

@GlobeOpinion

5 years

Let’s call @BernieSanders latest campaign move, rallies in @ewarren and @amyklobuchar ’s homestates, what it is: Shabby, says @GlobeScotLehigh . #Election2020 #SuperTuesday

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

6 years

No no no no no — will people please stop misunderstanding party ID? Only ~10% of the electorate are “true” independents who don’t lean one way or the other. And leaners vote almost as solidly for their party as outward partisans do.

Andrea Mitchell

@mitchellreports

6 years

. @HeidiNBC on Schultz: In theory there's a good market for an independent candidate like a Howard Schultz. If you look at the polling data, 42% of Americans now identify themselves as independents, more than Democrats, more than Republicans… (1/2)

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

9 months

McCarthy is RESIGNING, not retiring. Please fix your stories and headlines, they are not the same thing.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

1 month

Anyone who thought otherwise has been asleep for 9 years, apparently.

Amy Walter

@amyewalter

1 month

Trump 2.0 is Trump 1.0.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

Everyone does remember that Trump won Texas by 9 percentage points, right? NINE. Flipping Arizona, at Trump +3.5 in 2016, I can see. Texas going blue for president? I’m going to need a lot more than some House retirements to see it as in play.

Chris Hayes

@chrislhayes

5 years

Time for the GOP to start fully freaking out about Texas.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

6 years

Perhaps one of the greatest architects of modern polarized partisan politics complaining about how nasty things are. Give me a break.

Newt Gingrich

@newtgingrich

6 years

The increasing personal nastiness toward people who work for President Trump reflects the left’s understanding that they are losing. Nastiness reflects desperation not strength. They can’t win the argument so they use nastiness. Sad and dangerous.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Somehow Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Utah manage to do all-mail balloting. Must be magic, based on some of the comments you hear.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 months

Apparently this was the breaking point: Kari Lake now believes Katie Hobbs did win Arizona’s 2022 gubernatorial election.

Stephen Neukam

@stephen_neukam

5 months

NEW: Arizona Republican Kari Lake comes out against Arizona abortion ban. "I oppose today's ruling, and I am calling on Katie Hobbs and the State Legislature to come up with an immediate common sense solution that Arizonans can support."

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

11 months

Coming into today, I thought that *maybe* a few Dems might vote present to save McCarthy, but every Dem voted to vacate. Multiple swing district Dems said they saw no reason to help McCarthy, so that well was quite poisoned.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

This is the dumbest thing and it was apparently all over Twitter. Almost like we have exit poll data showing Biden with a massive lead.

Cynthia Nixon

@CynthiaNixon

4 years

Hey look, NYT says Joe Biden won South Carolina with 0% of precincts reporting!

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Joe Biden has been seeking the presidency since 1987, but sure, if he wins I'm sure he'll resign right after being inaugurated.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

4 years

His handlers and the Fake News Media are doing everything possible to get him through the Election. Then he will resign, or whatever, and we are stuck with a super liberal wack job that NOBODY wanted!

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@geoffreyvs

4 years

Hey @NateSilver538 , I'd be willing to enter an undecided voter's mind to save you -- just remember that in the next round of annual reviews.

FiveThirtyEight Employees Scrambling To Jolt Nate Silver Awake After He Traveled Too Far Into...

NEW YORK—Panicked FiveThirtyEight employees reportedly scrambled to jolt Nate Silver awake Thursday after the statistician traveled too far into an undecided voter’s mind while collecting data for...

theonion.com

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

Gabbard voted present. Not that she was going to win the Democratic nomination but I'm going to guess that's not going to play well with most primary voters.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Don’t ask cutesy, silly questions at debates. If you’re worried about the lack of comity in our politics, ask a better question than using the words of an 8th grader saying she always sees politicians being mean. Politics ain’t beanbag.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

I get DeWine wanting to close polls, but this is a highly problematic precedent. Using a public health crisis to close polls to do an end around of a court decision to keep them open is highly problematic.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Collective amnesia on the right. In the summer, I wrote an article about how experts were gaming out how Trump might try to stay in office despite the election, and many problems they foresaw have come to pass.

Manu Raju

@mkraju

4 years

Toomey on if he regrets supporting Trump: “The president’s behavior after the election was wildly different than his behavior before, he descended into a level of madness and engaged in a level of activity that was just absolutely unthinkable,” he tells @jaketapper on @CNNSotu

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@geoffreyvs

4 years

In other words, Biden waiting is totally normal.

Greg Giroux

@greggiroux

4 years

From 1984-2016, 10 of 13 VP running mates were announced by presidential nominees less than a week before national convention began. Exceptions: Bush-Quayle '88 (2nd day of convention) Kerry-Edwards '04 (20 days before) Romney-Ryan '12 (16 days before)

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

The obviousness of this point is such that attempts to refute it basically make someone unserious

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

4 years

MURKOWSKI: “If the end of a President’s term meant he or she would never be held politically liable for high crimes or misdemeanors committed while in office, the lame-duck period would pose a serious danger to the stability of the country.”

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

6 years

I get pissed off watching a five-minute cable news segment. Then I imagine being 75 and having it on my TV all day.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Understandable take but it doesn't account for Biden's far higher overall support. Biden's around 50% in likeliest tipping point states; Clinton def wasn't. Here's what our polling average data says about 68 days out in 2020 vs 2016:

Jake Tapper

@jaketapper

4 years

NRO: Right Now, Biden Is Underperforming Hillary in Battleground States

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

2 years

*Me screaming into the void every time a pollster includes Michelle Obama in presidential primary polls*

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

3 years

In day-to-day terms, a pretty significant consequence of the election.

Salaam Bhatti

@salaam

3 years

BREAKING: USDA announces free lunches for all students through 2021-22 school year.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

3 years

Oh, does Sen. Cotton think partisan gerrymandering should be justiciable in federal courts? SCOTUS voted 5-4 in 2019 that partisan gerrymandering involved non-justiciable political questions, but it’d sure be fascinating to learn that Cotton disagrees.

Tom Cotton

@TomCottonAR

3 years

If @TheJusticeDept cared about gerrymandering, they would sue Illinois. Merrick Garland's only concern is electing more Democrats. He should resign in disgrace.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Quite the #GA14 GOP primary runoff description from @nytimes

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

If Biden wins, what exactly would stop him from just having acting secretaries akin to President Trump?

Jim VandeHei

@JimVandeHei

4 years

🚨 🚨 scoop: McConnell, if he keeps the Senate majority, plans to prevent Joe Biden from stacking his Cabinet with liberals and force him to go with centrist options, like Lael Brainard 4 Treasury, Tony Blinken for State, sources tell ⁦ @mikeallen ⁩

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Once this election is all said and done, I hope my fellow journalists don’t give a free pass to anyone who assisted efforts to subvert the 2020 election. Those people should be personae non gratae and things they say should be given no credence whatsoever in the future.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

The bad faith here is remarkable. Georgia held a free, fair and transparent election -- Loeffler just didn't like the outcome.

Greg Bluestein

@bluestein

4 years

Asked of @GovKemp & SoS role in election, @SenatorLoeffler says: “The buck stops with the Secretary of State. He is supposed to run a trusted, free, fair, transparent election. David Perdue and I have called for him to step down because Georgians have lost faith in our elections”

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

10 months

She’s co-chair of Biden’s campaign, so this would be a stunning development to say the least.

Mike Murphy

@murphymike

10 months

I do wonder what would happen if Gretchen Whitmer announced a Presidential race tmmrw. She’d soar past Biden in D Presidential primary polls in a few weeks. Question is: would the Gretchen-mania be big enough to drive Biden out of the race before SC? I think it might.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Seeing some bad takes comparing #IA02 recount situation to the pres election. The margin in IA-02 is .002 percentage points. That is *167 times smaller* than the .253-point margin in Georgia, the closest pres state. GA was close, but IA-02 is one of the closest races ever.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

7 years

Wow, looks like the Dem in Oklahoma's 37th Senate District special pulled out the win by 31 votes. There'll be a recount but this is a pretty remarkable result in a Trump+39 (yes, +39) district.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

8 years

Two polls with Clinton trailing in NH and now a tied poll there from Suffolk. The Blue Wall is cracking.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

8 years

Obama has had about the worst downballot effect on his party of any modern president. ~1,000 state leg seats lost!

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

4 years

Seen this mistake today so here's a quick margin of error lesson: Candidate A: 47% Candidate B: 43% Margin of error is ±3 pts Is A's lead outside the MOE? NO. A could have 44-50% B could have 40-46% MOE for the difference between A & B is ~2x the candidate MOE, so ~6 pts.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

9 months

The world in which Christie drops out before NH could get interesting.

Robert Costa

@costareports

9 months

CBS News poll: Haley gains on Trump on New Hampshire: 44% Trump, 29% Haley

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

I can report that no house Republicans signaled they're retiring tonight -- because none voted for either impeachment article.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

1 month

In 60 polls in 2024 that have tested both Biden-Trump and Harris-Trump head-to-head, Harris is running more in line with Biden now (and sometimes ahead) in state and national polls taken after the debate vs. before it.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

6 months

INBOX: Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore Urges Nikki Haley to Quit 12 votes (not a typo) in the 2016 Iowa caucuses will really go to your head.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

1 month

Any way you cut it, Nixon definitely didn't win in a landslide in 1968. He won the nat'l pop vote by 0.7 percentage pts and won 5 states by less than 3 pts over Humphrey that if flipped would've given Humphrey the win.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

8 years

One candidate gets interviewed by FBI, the other tweets out image content made by anti-Semites. 2016 is just the best, ain't it?

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

6 years

Just caught that former Rep. John Barrow (D) is headed to a runoff in Georgia’s Secretary of State race (to succeed Brian Kemp).

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

2 years

Putting AK-AL in context is a little hard given the format. Two GOP candidates got 59% to the lone Dem’s 40% in 1st pref votes. But because more Rs backed the more broadly unpopular candidate, the Dem won in RCV, helped in part by 11k in exhausted R votes.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

2 years

Boebert appears in real danger in #CO03 , an R+15 seat by margin. Frisch (D) leads 50.4-49.6 w/ 91% exp. vote in. 31k votes left: 21k in Pueblo+Garfield, where Frisch leads; ~8k in R-leaning Mesa+Montezuma+Otero. I suspect remaining votes are a tad red, but how much matters.

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

5 years

Cal Cunningham is the seeming frontrunner for the Dem nomination in #NCSen & raised around $1m in the 3rd quarter. Meanwhile, Amy McGrath raised $10.7m in #KYSen . Only one of these seats seems likely to be in play in 2020, and it's not KY. 🔥💰🔥

Democrat challenging Mitch McConnell raises $10.7 million in third quarter

Amy McGrath, who narrowly lost a congressional race in 2018, is challenging Mitch McConnell in the 2020 Senate race

www.cbsnews.com

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Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

3 years

I’m not quote tweeting because I’m not gonna amplify this insanity, but: Newsflash: Republicans won Senate races in Kentucky & South Carolina because — drumroll — those are pretty Republican states! No fraud or manipulation there or in states Dems won, please take a hike.

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