Danilo Evangelista @daniloevan11 Twitter profile

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Out of all years that I've seen these late June MDR signals, this year is definitely by far the most aggressive. Let's see what actually develops though because models are only one part of reality... #hurricanes #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

5 months

May CANSIPS has released and this is a seriously alarming look for peak time of hurricane season. Extremely low pressure in the ENTIRE deep tropics and very warm SSTAs especially in the caribbean. Prepare now!

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Very interesting looking tropical wave right now in the Central Atlantic. Some models show that as there is potential for this to consolidate some as it heads towards the islands but nothing points explicit Tropical Cyclone development right now. #hurricaneseason2024

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

6 months

As we now head into the month of April, incoming climate model data now confirms that this hurricane season could have one of the most favorable setups that you could ask for. We can now look at these models more comfortably since we are in April and past the SPB.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

August CanSIPS is out and the only thing I can say is buckle up folks. Looks like we're more than likely in for a long peak of the hurricane season with more threats to the Caribbean and Western Atlantic likely. #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

12z Euro is confident, to say the least on potentially one of these strong tropical waves developing as we head into the month of July. There is reason to believe however that this may be a legit concern since it has ensemble support and other models as well. #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Look like the tropics in the atlantic may not be done as we close out the month of June. Signals are there for some more Caribbean action and potential our first chance at an MDR storm. Nothing is set in stone right now though. #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Remember when I showed you this tropical wave yesterday? Looks like we may need to watch it, since it may be the culprit of more tropical development in the western Caribbean and southern gulf, once again, on the GFS next week. Nothing set in stone though... #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Now this deeply concerning to me. Look at how warm the Atlantic and ESPECIALLY the Caribbean is, even sometime after Hurricane Beryl. Still running solidly at least 1C above normal in most areas and we have the peak of the hurricane season ahead of us.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

4 months

Looking at the long range upper level pattern in the Atlantic, even if we don't get much in June, once we get into July we DEFINITELY should have a chance for tropical development in the Atlantic. Strong upper level easterlies overtake the deep tropics.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

#95L appears to be refiring some of its deep convection after loosing it for sometime. You can also how well 95L is spinning too. Definitely not far from becoming a tropical depression at this point. #hurricanes #tropics #95L

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

8 months

Prob won't be named since it's February but still interesting ngl... #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

See the pattern? Hurricane Season Looking more and more interesting...

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Well hello there Tropical Atlantic. Euro ensembles showing lots of potential activity as we head into early July with the southern gulf and western caribbean (Invest #94L ), central MDR (0/30 AOI) and something north of the Bahamas although not quite sure what that is... #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

5 months

Euro seasonal for May is out and im surprised how much they uptrended in the JJA period from last month to this month in SSTAs in the MDR. Wonder if this is trend we may see in the coming months as we progress towards peak time for the season.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

Look at the uptrend on the very warm MDR that STILL happened on the CanSIPS for march!!! #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

6 months

Jan 1 vs April 8 of Atlantic SSTAs. Incredible how warm the Atlantic has remained through the ENTIRE winter and so far spring. Big things to watch for hurricane season.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Is that 2 potential systems in the MDR on the euro ensembles as we close out June and head into July? Maybe although nothing is set in stone. The key point is that models generally think the atlantic tropics could spit out a tropical cyclone in the next week or so. #tropicswx

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

5 months

Bye Bye el nino. Strong trade winds incoming... #LaNina #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

Looks like we have a potential signal to watch in the Atlantic as we head into early August and I say potential signal because this is still 7-10 days out. Euro model is alone in showing actual development rn but the GFS is starting to hint at development too in recent runs.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

4 months

One thing that has been particularly interesting this year so far, is the amount of robust waves that have come off africa. There's one moving off of Africa right now. Definitely a sign of things to come this hurricane season.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

8 months

Look at some of those 4C anomalies off the west coast of africa 🔥🔥🔥🔥 - atlantic the ultimate bath tub rn...

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Looking at the hurricane models for #95L , they generally agree one either a strong TS or hurricane to impact the Caribbean on Monday. However, hurricane models are known for being very aggressive with these small early season MDR storms, as seen with Bret last year. #Tropicswx

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Invest #95L already looking much better defined this morning then it did yesterday. National hurricane center now has this at 90 percent chance that'll form in the next 48 hours. Wouldn't even surprise this becomes a tropical depression later today. #tropics #hurricanes

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

5 months

Comparison of SSTAs from this time last year to this year. Insane how warm this year was still able to achieve and now we're heading into May. Hurricane season is really shaping up to be something...

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

5 months

EPS Long Range hinting at a big rising cell developing over the Atlantic near June 10th. Looks like around then we could get our first good chance for the first storm of the hurricane season to develop. (Used GEFS too) #hurricaneseason2024 #hurricanes

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

New Euro Seasonal Climate model is out and a few things caught me. First off, they have the very active precip look that all of the other models have in the caribbean and gulf. 2nd, they have reduce SLPs in the western atlantic with a stronger ridge over head in the N Atlantic.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

C3S model continues the very active hurricane season look trend for overall seasonal activity AND potential landfall too? #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

One thing that I find very interesting with #95L is how much in agreement models are with its track. All show that the southern caribbean will be at greatest risk for a direct landfall on from 95L with little to no wavering before 120 hours. #hurricanes #tropics #95L

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

6 months

Looks like we're about to see the Atlantic skyrocket in warmth again as the GEFS indicates westerly winds remaining in the MDR throughout the forecast period. This is ALREADY happening right now, per OISST. #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

4 months

Looking at the models today for our CAG setup, there some EPS support it seems although it's not strong. GFS doesn't have anything organized as well until far into the fantasy range. Modeling is still very inconsistent right for development in the atlantic.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

The incredible warmth we have in the eastern MDR right now extends below the surface as much as 50 meters. This will definitely help keep the MDR warm even through short-lived trade bursts that occur. #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Look at how much the outflow is beginning to expand in #Beryl especially in the last few frames. This should help fight out against any dry air it is dealing with and eventually quickly strengthen into hurricane and possibly a major hurricane as well. #tropics #Beryl

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Hurricane Beryl now clearing her eye completely. This is probably on track to become a high end category 4 for the Southern winward islands. The last time we had something close to this was Hurricane Ivan back in SEPTEMBER of 2004. This is late June... incredible. #HurricaneBeryl

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Hurricane #Beryl is beginning to look very concerning on satellite as EWRC from overnight has now completed and CB are fully wrapping around the eye now. Recon is about to make another pass into the storm so we'll get more data on it's intensity right now.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

Rapid deepening seems to be occurring in #Debby this morning as a latest dropsonde recon indicates pressure in the center is down to 992 mbar. If this is true, we might see a hurricane in short order.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

8PM Update out now and Invest #94L is still 10/20 while Invest #95L has been upgraded to 30/60. NHC is using very interesting wording, saying that conditions are looking unusually favorable for June ahead of 95L. Smells like trouble... #hurricanes #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

Very favorable upper-level environment over our area of interest at 7 days. Very defined ULAC is right over top, which would mean low shear and very good outflow with whatever is in the Bahamas. Looks very troubling if this pans out though it is still a week away. #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

CSU predicts a potentially historic hurricane season with 25 Named Storms and **230**, yes 230 ACE points this season. Certainly seems possible now after the activity we have gotten so far, especially with Hurricane Beryl. #HurricaneSeason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

GFS now shows a potential tropical system heading into the caribbean early next week from one of these amplified waves moving off Africa right now. Other models like the Canadian and euro also seem to show development of some sort occurring as well. #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

GFS continues to show Invest #95L become a solid hurricane on approach to the southern caribbean islands on Monday. Euro shows a much weaker solution with only a tropical storm but both models show a tropical cyclone of some sort impacting the Caribbean on Monday. #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

Adding on to earlier, you can see how 2024 has MJO forcing that resembles much more of a weak La nina year like 2005 (and that didn't happen til like November) as opposed to a strong Nina year like 2010. Definitely looking at a slower progression into La Nina than fast now.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Invest #95L has formed in the Atlantic. Looking pretty healthy already, given that it is still in the far eastern Atlantic, in June. Gotta watch this wave closely to see what it does over the next few days. #hurricanes #tropics #95L

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

You can see how the August CanSIPS backs this up more, especially when you compare it to April when the CanSIPS (and many other models) were showing moderate-strong La Nina for ASO. In fact it looks like we might even be nearly enso neutral.

Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

Adding on to earlier, you can see how 2024 has MJO forcing that resembles much more of a weak La nina year like 2005 (and that didn't happen til like November) as opposed to a strong Nina year like 2010. Definitely looking at a slower progression into La Nina than fast now.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Hurricane #Beryl a beautiful monster this afternoon. No hurricane should be looking THIS good in the month of July. Still no signs of weakening right now and we are 2-3 hours away from the next recon right now. Wouldn't shock me if this is a Category 5 hurricane rn.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

A look over #95L this morning show's it very convectively active and pretty spiny🌀. 850 mbar vorticity shows that it does have a small compact vorticity signature although it may not be well defined yet. Watching this one closely... #hurricanes #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Since #Beryl has moved inland now (thank god), although not without wrecking havoc in Texas, let's see what else is out there in the tropics. Nothing solid yet although I wonder if the EPS might pick up something soon since there maybe a small CCKW that moves through... #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Our Invest #95L now has a high chance of development over the next 48 hours per the latest 8pm Tropical weather bulletin. It is firing deep convection so it may only be a matter of time before we see a TD. Invest #94L is also on the map at a 20/30 chance. #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Hurricane Beryl has strengthened today into a Category 4 Major Hurricane in the MDR, being the earliest to do so in both intensity and location. We also #94L which ATCF has as a TD but recon this afternoon found TS winds, so we may have #Chris at 5pm. #tropics #beryl #94L

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

8 months

We're really beginning to loose the heat in the EQ pacific now as el niño is on its road to death. La Niña transition incoming later this year. Stay tuned for this todays video update for more... #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

4 months

We have multiple tropical waves now in the Atlantic. Starting to show life ahead of hurricane season... #hurricanes

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Not a lot people seem to be talking about it but #94L has really blown up this morning in convection in the caribbean. NHC upgraded the chances of development to 30 percent this morning, up from 20 percent from the previous days. #hurricanes #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Nothing much going on the Atlantic right now but that could change as we get closer to the latter portion of the month as we could see a standing wave of rising air setup in the Indian ocean, and Africa. #tropics #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

12z GFS continues to show what COULD potentially be a hurricane threat to the southern caribbean islands for Invest #95L early next week. In line with the hurricane models and general intensity guidance as well for 95L. Things could still change though... #hurricanes #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

6 months

All of the April model releases so far, all show above-normal precip anomalies throughout the MDR and Caribbean, seemingly confirming the potential of an active hurricane season. When you see model consensus like this, you know it means business!

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

What's up with La Nina? We are now into late July and the atmosphere so far isn't yet responding very Nina like. SOI is currently negative, we do not yet have large-scale sinking air in the pacific and it seems like we are in the midst or another WWB right now.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

How much land interaction with our area of interest in the Atlantic will be crucial to how much development occurs. Less interaction with the greater antilles will result in a stronger system (EPS) while more land interaction will probably result in nothing (GFS). #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

If you're just waking this morning, a hurricane watch has been issued for the island of Barbados ahead of Tropical Storm #Beryl . It's getting a LOT more organized on the satellite imagery and it's now starting to get a banding look. #beryl #tropics #hurricanes

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

4 months

Seems like today, the euro model has really jumped the gun on potentially a formation off the southeast coast as we head towards the end of the week. Icon model also indicating this as well. Looks the wait for #alberto may end soon.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

6 months

Look at that - strong westerly zonal winds right over the canary current in the Atlantic, should help the MDR rebound a lot, and get to even warmer levels than we are right now. #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

Most models now are in agreement with the Euro with a system developing off the east coast and strengthening along the gulf stream. GFS is the only model that still indicates Gulf development.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Very cool meso-sector over #Beryl right now shows it continuing the fire deep convection bursts over its center. ATCF now has it at 65 mph and a pressure of 998 mbar. If all goes well we could see significant intensification begin as soon as later today. #beryl #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

4 months

Talked about this in my video today but 2024 is lining up pretty well in terms of SSTA setup when compared to the most notable hurricane seasons of the past. Gives us a good idea that we should expect this year to be very active to say the least. #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Sneak preview at the NHC forecast for TD #02L 😨. Category 2 hurricane expected as the peak. In late June... #tropics #hurricanes #Beryl

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

This is something that I never thought would happen but now it actually looks like a possibility. NHC is expecting Tropical Storm #Beryl to become a major hurricane (Cat 3+) as it enters the Caribbean Monday morning. If you are in the islands, start preparing NOW. #tropics

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

8 months

Atlantic obviously very warm right now and may warm again after this brief trade burst in the atlantic due to the current +NAO. #hurricanes

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Doesn't seem like a lot of people are talking about this but, might that be an uptrend on #94L ? The 00z ensembles were pretty confident if you ask in showing development in the Bay of Campeche trying. We'll see what happens... #hurricanes #tropics #94L

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

Happy 100 Days Till Hurricane Season! What happens over the next 100 days will be crucial to what happens during hurricane season. I'll post a video update later today.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

6 months

NMME for April is out and what do you know... it looks like its gonna be an active hurricane season folks. Get ready now and pay attention closely is my best advice. Luck favors the prepared! #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

5 months

Looks like we may have to watch the eastern pacific in the next week for our first development of the hurricane season?? #hurricanes

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Looks #93L is gonna be another one of those almost but not quite cases. It seems to have a closed LLC and it current has some gale-force winds based on recon but we're lacking heavy in terms of convection organization. If it wanted though, it could've quickly snugged #Beryl .

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

Down goes El Niño... Soon comes - The Girl #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

4 months

Look at these boiling sea surface temperatures across the entire Caribbean and gulf right now and it's only the start of June. This area is also the area we watch for early June tropical development. Concerning to say the least. #hurricanes

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Yep, I guess that is it for #93L . Recon didn't seem to find an organized enough center, plus its moving into Mexico over the next several hours. Gotta wait longer for #Beryl .

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

5 months

3 hours late but WOW - wasn't expecting this lol. The first AOI of the 2024 hurricane season formed in the eastern subtropics and is designated a 10/10 chance by the NHC. It won't form but it certainly gave it it's all.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

6 months

Look at how much the El Nino has been weakening since the beginning of the month! Definitely on our way to ENSO Neutral/La Nina which will probably be full blown in a few weeks. #LaNi ña

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

6 months

I'm gonna release my own hurricane season predictions/thoughts tomorrow to you guys on YT. Stay tuned to see what I think (You probably won't be shocked). #Hurricanes

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

Tropical Storm #Debby has strengthening to 60 mph this morning per recon. It is however dealing with a little bit of shear from the west and dry air, which is why all convective activity is heavily weighted towards the right side.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

Seeing all that rising motion over africa in June/July raises the question for potential early season MDR activity??

Ben Noll

@BenNollWeather

7 months

Hints about hurricane season 2024: early signs are the Atlantic will be busy 🌀 Velocity potential helps us to understand how the atmosphere will respond to oceanic temperature anomalies. In this animation, brown colors (🟤) indicate suppressed convection (thunderstorm

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

4 months

@Souza101Matt At least over the next week and a half those anomalies should start to return back to the MDR as westerly zonal winds return in the general tropics. MDR seems to waiver in SSTAs every 2 weeks or so.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

I feel like this important to remember because most of these of these strong nino to nina years happened during the -AMO era which is opposite to record warm SSTAs we have rn, which skews the dataset for these kinds of years.

Andy Hazelton

@AndyHazelton

7 months

@MassachusettsWx @AlanSevere There's this plot from @wx_tiger a while ago...The two strong Niñas in the dataset were seemingly less favorable than the weak Niña. One of these was 1973 which had a cold AMO, completely opposite of what we're looking at now.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Latest recon into Hurricane #Beryl finds that it has maintained its intensity since it's pressure hasn't dropped much since this morning. Judging by the latest CB however I'm sure that is probably on it was soon to re-intensify.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Invest #94L has now formed in the caribbean. This is the area of interest the NHC has highlighted has a 20 percent chance for potential tropical cyclone development once it gets to the western caribbean and southern gulf, later in the week.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

8 months

Despite how warm the MDR is right now - trades are expected to increase as the NAO jumps back positive for the next week or so and we should things level off/cool for a little. We'll see how that changes/lasts as spring comes along.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

8 months

Looks like the uptrends for MDR SSTAs continue for the hurricane season from this month's model runs. 📈🔥🔥

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

Invest #97L has been designated this morning. We're gonna have to be watching this disturbance very closely over the next several days, especially as it could be a pretty decent threat to the US/Florida early next week.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Expecting NHC advisories at 5pm as ATCF just upgraded Invest #95L to TD 2. Will post details on advisory when its released.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

You tend to see these kind of signals setup in late April early may usually - very interesting it's already beginning to set up shop in late march this year. Wonder how this impacts the early season and probably more importantly - MDR warming. We'll see...

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

6 months

Seems like cooling period in the MDR has now stopped and we're starting to see it level off. Didn't matter anyway since we're still a full 1C above normal.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

6 months

Others have mentioned this but I should note as well, CanSIPS not only has a potent La Nina signal again but a colder NPMM signal too. This could help enhance atmospheric La Nina conditions and make the Atlantic more favorable, especially in the Caribbean.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

Today is 91 days til hurricane season, we're now at the exact half way point of the off-season 🌀🌀🌀.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

Next, the euro also has up to 17 Tropical Storms forecasted in the atlantic, mind you only going out to SEPTEMBER right now. The atlantic ACE is also forecasted to be 1.7 times the average. #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

6 months

Lol this has to be the most confused MJO plot I've seen so far this year. #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

5 months

Looks like the potential for early season development in the first part of June is being picked up by the Climate Prediction center as well. Hurricane season is on our doorstep now. #hurricaneseason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

2 months

Looks like a center relocation is occurring to the NE in Tropical Storm #Debby right now. Notice on radar where there is a partial eyewall feature, and IR satellite shows new CBs are occurring around that area too.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

7 months

The upper-level wind pattern in the atlantic this hurricane season looks to be very favorable... to say the least. Yikes...

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

6 months

Reiterating that NAO is going to -ve for at least the next week to 2, which likely result in the Atlantic to warm up even further than it is right now. Right now the MDR as a whole stands at 1.25C above normal.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

4 months

NOAA issues a record high first hurricane forecast for the 2024 season. They forecast 25 Named Storms which break the previous record for a first may forecast set back in 2010 when they went as high as 23. #HurricaneSeason

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

4 months

Looking at Invest #90L right now, very messy and disorganized off the west coast of Florida, but it will bring heavy downpours and flash flooding risks to all of south Florida regardless.

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Danilo Evangelista

@daniloevan11

3 months

Recent satellite imagery of #Beryl shows convective bursts are starting to curl near the center. Microwave imagery shows that it does a consolidating core and you can see that a band is starting to form again to the west too. Beryl is not long from hurricane status. #tropics

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