Carola Conces Binder @cconces Twitter profile

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

7 months

Here is a nice review of my book in Library Journal: Please consider pre-ordering!

Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy

www.amazon.com

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 months

Today at the local park with my 5 kids, I was told I needed a permit to be there with a group of more than 5 people. I said that they were my own kids and he said I still needed a permit!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 months

@JosephPolitano Not a cop, just a local official of some sort. I go there every week and this was the first time this happened. He didn't kick me out but said to get a permit next time (I will not!)

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

7 years

I gave a 90 minute econ seminar today with the twin babies, both awake. Held one and audience passed the other around. A first in economics?

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 years

Want to feel old? The college students are having a "2000s rave" on campus tomorrow night.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

I have devoted most of my career to studying inflation expectations. And my own thinking has shifted pretty dramatically in the past year or two. Good time for a thread? 1/n

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

Some policies work in theory but not in practice. Some work in practice but not in theory. Price controls work neither in theory nor in practice.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 months

@ctorresreporter A township employee. Not his fault, just doing his job. I checked later and that's the official policy for picnic tables.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 months

@TPCarney Apparently it's because we were by the picnic tables:

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 months

@nomopoetry @JosephPolitano Apparently it's because we were by the picnic tables.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

I generally agree with Rudd that there is too much emphasis on expectations as something the Fed can/should directly control or fine-tune. Focusing on price stability and full employment should keep expectations anchored enough.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

The methodology I developed in my job market paper (2017 JME) is now being used by the ECB!

European Central Bank

@ecb

3 years

Why do consumers sometimes overestimate inflation? This is down to their uncertainty: those who aren’t certain tend to round up, and their expectations tend to be higher than actual inflation. This is made worse during crisis periods. #EconomicBulletin

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

1 year

Our family's newest blessing, Louisa Rachel Binder!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

"Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations" This is the fastest I've ever written a paper: conceived of on March 5, online survey March 5 and 6, data analyzed March 7, written up March 8. (thread)

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

1 year

Two big announcements that I'm thrilled to share: I signed a contract with @UChicagoPress to publish my book on the history of price stabilization in the US. Forthcoming in Spring 2024! And Binder baby #5 is forthcoming this July! It's a girl!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

... Most people don't want to pay attention to central bank communication, no matter how accessible, entertaining, or targeted. Central banks could respect this preference by doing their best to make sure people don't need to pay them much attention. But the more they try... 5/n

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

Tenure documents submitted. She arrived a week early to join the fun.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

... the more the whole purpose of their communication strategy is muddled. When Fed officials do manage to get the attention of the general public, the reaction is usually highly politicized. "No news is good news" should be the central bank motto. Newsworthy = politicized. 6/n

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 months

Pinching myself :)

Erzo F.P. Luttmer

@ErzoLuttmer

5 months

Congratulations to newly appointed AER Board Members (starting in Jan ‘25): Carola Binder ( @cconces ), Randi @ProfHjalmarsson , @attilalindner , Rachel Ngai, Vincent Pons ( @VinPons ), Sonja Settele ( @SettSonja ), @kevin_stange , and Kaspar Wuthrich. @AEAjournals

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

1 year

I'm very pleased to now be a Research Associate at the @nberpubs Monetary Economics group. Thanks to whoever nominated and supported me! Proud to increase liberal arts college representation at NBER too! @haverfordedu

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

But to use inflation expectations "as a policy tool," that is, for stabilization and fine tuning, being newsworthy is a must. This is a big problem. It is not feasible, and if it were feasible, it wouldn't necessarily be desirable. 7/n

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

I am writing a survey article about central bank expectations, forecasts, and projections. Please send me your work if you think it should be included. I am especially looking for more work on forecasts from central banks other than the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ. #econtwitter

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

After well over a thousand consecutive meals with children, I'm off to an in-person conference. Forgive me, fellow grownups, if I start cutting up your food and scolding you to eat vegetables, etc.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

Moreover, there is relatively little evidence that manipulating inflation expectations can effectively shift consumption intertemporally. What about anchoring inflation expectations? Super important, but there are so many different definitions of "anchored" out there. 8/n

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

I started researching consumer inflation expectations in grad school in the 2010s because I felt like it would be really useful for monetary policymakers to better understand how the public forms expectations and how to use expectations as a policy tool (esp. at the ZLB). 2/n

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

About to give a conference presentation and my husband unexpectedly had to go to work leaving me alone with my 4 kids. Mean age=median age= mode age=3, wish me luck!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

When there are big, dramatic episodes like the Great Depression and recovery, the world wars, the Volcker disinflation, then inflation expectations (by any measure) and inflation strongly co-move and each affects the other. Over shorter periods, relationship is much weaker. 9/n

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

This is my 6th Pinwheel Day and first with tenure!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

6 years

I love my job at an undergrad-only college, but also think it would be an interesting/rewarding experience to serve on a PhD dissertation committee. So if you're in a small program and could use an external committee member and think we're a good research fit, get in touch!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

And over shorter periods, it matters much more which measure of expectations you use-consumer surveys, professional forecasters, TIPS, etc. All of these measures have flaws, but they all rose in the 70s and fell with the Volcker disinflation. 10/n

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

I wrote "Fed Speak on Main Street" and a series of other papers about how the Fed struggles to communicate with households and to shape their expectations. The goal was to understand how they could better communicate and better shape expectations. 3/n

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

This is exciting-- I'm quoted in an article that's on the @WSJ front page!

How Do You Feel About Inflation? The Answer Will Help Determine Its Longevity

One factor in inflation is whether Americans expect it to keep rising—and knowing the answer will help determine when and how much the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The problem is that it’s...

www.wsj.com

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

And in the course of a few years, the Fed and other CBs really ramped up their communication games-- Twitter, press conferences, cute videos, and the like. I was excited, if not fully optimistic. But now I am less so. The big takeaway of tons of research is that... 4/n

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

Hi, #econtwitter . If you're located reasonably close to Philly and have a working paper that would be interesting and (somewhat) accessible to undergrads, send me an email and I can see about getting you on the @haverfordedu economics seminar series.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

Grades are submitted, so my sabbatical officially begins! More time to talk, think, and write about inflation and the Fed.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

Felicity Bernadette Binder has arrived! 8lb 10oz and doing very well. Named for St. Felicity, mother of the seven martyrs whose feast day is today, and St. Bernadette who saw the Marian apparition of Our Lady of Lourdes, for which our parish is named.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

On the Fed's average inflation targeting announcement: Can we all agree to pronounce AIT like a'ight (all right)? Thanks in advance for your cooperation.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

David Beckworth

@DavidBeckworth

2 years

Happy to announce that @cconces is joining the monetary policy team at @mercatus this summer as a visiting scholar. She brings expertise on π expectations, central bank communications, and more! Her work is incredibly relevant in this season of high inflation. Welcome @cconces !

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

1 year

I have a title! "Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy" is forthcoming with @UChicagoPress in Spring 2024.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

1 year

My survey article on central bank forecasting, with Rodrigo Sekkel of the @bankofcanada , is now out at Journal of Economic Surveys:

Central bank forecasting: A survey

Central banks' forecasts are important monetary policy inputs and tools for central bank communication. We survey the literature on forecasting at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 months

It was awesome to have @NPR feature my book on the evening before its release!

Inflation and politics have always been connected - Marketplace

Rising costs have long been a concern for Americans. What's changed is how the government intervenes in prices, economist Carola Binder writes.

www.marketplace.org

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

Just thinking about that time I brought my @haverfordedu students on a field trip to meet the great @benbernanke , thanks to @BrookingsEcon .

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

9 months

Check out the webpage for my book, "Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy" with @UChicagoPress !

Shock Values

How inflation and deflation fears shape American democracy. Many foundational moments in American economic history—the establishment of paper money, wartime price controls, the rise of the modern...

press.uchicago.edu

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

Happy to see my "Political Pressure on Central Banks" paper officially published in JMCB. Limited time shareable link here: Data here:

Political Pressure on Central Banks

Quarterly panel dataset of political pressure on 118 central banks, constructed using a narrative approach. Hosted on the Open Science Framework

osf.io

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

10 months

When the only thing between you and trick or treating is an econ seminar

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

I updated my consumer inflation uncertainty index (Journal of Monetary Economics 2017). In May, U.S. households grew much more uncertain about how prices will change in the next 12 months (evidenced by more rounding on Michigan Survey). Updated data here:

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

6 months

On March 28, I will be discussing the paper "Why do we dislike inflation?" by @S_Stantcheva at the @BrookingsInst BPEA Spring 2024 conference. You can watch online at . Just for fun: do YOU dislike inflation? Why or why not?

BPEA Spring 2024 conference | Brookings

www.brookings.edu

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

I wrote a piece about why the name "Inflation Reduction Act" signals a dismissal of the monetary dominance that an independent Fed relies on:

‘Inflation Reduction Act’ — What’s in a name?

This is misleading at a time when we need to be especially clear about the state of the economy and what’s being done about it.

thehill.com

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 years

We rented a garden plot on campus for just $15 and turns out it's 10ft by 60ft. If my economics output declines that's because I guess I'm a farmer now.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 months

Thanks to @CRPakaluk for lending her daughter to babysit my daughter so I could bring her to my conference at @BrookingsInst #BPEA ! Academic moms helping academic moms.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

Grateful for this joy on her baptism day.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 years

My paper on inequality and inflation was just accepted in Journal of Macroeconomics. Inequality and inflation used to be positively correlated, now they're negatively correlated.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

1 year

Three years later and we have a harvest!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

This Monday, I'll be on a panel at @haverfordedu with Larry Ball and @davidmwessel on "The State of the Macro Economy." Haverford alumni and friends, please come join us!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 months

So thoughtful of the #FederalReserve to hold its press conference during naptime so moms can watch live!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

9 months

Merry Christmas!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 months

"In my experience, many policymakers produced their economic forecasts by working backwards from their preferred stance. This is an inversion of the way inflation targeting was meant to operate." One of many gems in this amazing Andy Haldane piece @ft

Economic forecasting — little more than performance art for central bankers

Ben Bernanke’s review is full of sound recommendations but unlikely to alter this opaque process

www.ft.com

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

I have updated my consumer inflation uncertainty indices through February 2022. These are constructed based on respondents' rounding behavior on the Michigan Survey, using the methodology in my 2017 JME. Download updated data:

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

6 years

So, my recent paper suggests that central banks have trouble competing for audience attention in today's media landscape...

New York Fed

@NewYorkFed

6 years

Economics is awesome! Economics is fun! Economics helps good things happen! Hooray for economics! #econoME

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

Thinking of running your own survey, maybe using MTurk? Did you know your results might depend on the day of the week? You may want to oversample on Saturdays. See tips in my new publication:

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 years

Professional forecasters are doing both. Some revising u* estimates down, some abandoning u* as a useful forecasting concept. See my working paper:

Justin Wolfers

@JustinWolfers

5 years

Unemployment is low & wage growth is stable. => Whatever you thought the lowest sustainable unemployment rate was, it's time to revise that number down. Either revise down your estimate of the NAIRU, or revise your sense of whether it's a useful concept at all.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

Twitter wants to know if a tweet about the Phillips curve and the Fed is relevant to me. Oh Twitter...

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

My consumer inflation uncertainty data is updated & posted: Uncertainty about long-run inflation is up. And inflation expectations even of the "less uncertain" consumers are rising. Hard to say whether this is "good or bad" yet--some of both, probably.

Inflation Uncertainty

The inflation uncertainty index is constructed by Carola Binder according to methodology described in Binder (Journal of Monetary Economics 2017) using data from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. The...

sites.google.com

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

6 months

Happy pi day. My daughter recited 187 digits this year!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

6 years

I just posted a new working paper on @SSRN . "Communication without Consensus: Forward Guidance, Central Bank Projections, and Private Sector Expectations." Feedback always appreciated.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

7 years

The twins attended their first econ seminar today at age 10 weeks. Baby girl was awake and boy slept. #econlife

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

I changed one key word in my bio and also felt obligated to update my profile picture for the first time since I was like 25.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

Just a hawk hanging out by the econ department @haverfordedu .

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

10 years married today!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

Voting as a family. Middle children were not impressed.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 years

In case you missed my @CatoInstitute panel on Targets and Mandates, the video is now up! Honor to share the stage with @chrisjcondon , Jeffrey Lacker, @PIrelandatBC , and Eric Sims.

37th Annual Monetary Conference - Panel 1: Targets and Mandates

Featuring Chris Condon, Peter Ireland, Jeffrey M. Lacker, Carola Conces Binder, & Eric Sims

www.cato.org

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

@UpdatedPriors Yep. After about 6 years of getting all of my papers and panels rejected, I gave up on applying or attending. And these papers ended up publishing well.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

No need for commercials when there is a government monopoly. Easy to imagine commercials for money under free banking or with private mints competing for customers. @lawrencehwhite1 @GeorgeSelgin

Noah Garfinkel

@NoahGarfinkel

3 years

One reason I still have trouble believing crypto currency is money is that there aren’t commercials for money.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

After several days of exclaiming "Mommy ate a hamster!", my kids showed me the picture they found of me... at NBER Summer Institute... eating a lobster. I feel...proud of their lack of exposure to luxuries and house pets? And an intense longing for conference food?

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

7 years

@Darlington84 I held the girl, who is lighter weight and has more head control.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

Working on gaining that "covid 19" and then some.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

It is so cool to see my work with @CParaSkinner in The Economist!

The Economist

@TheEconomist

2 years

When inflation was low, it was possible for the Federal Reserve to run the economy hot to bring disadvantaged workers into the labour force. But now inflation is rising

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

This is such a cool paper and part of a really important research agenda. How should central banks respond to core vs. headline inflation is a crucial question these days.

Alexander Dietrich

@amdietrich_econ

2 years

🚨What inflation measure (core or headline) should central banks target?🚨 A short 🧵on my job market paper!👇

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

Our monarch butterfly came out this morning!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

I wonder if @haverfordedu is there in almost microscopic font. I admit, I am very proud to be an associate editor at two great journals while at a small liberal arts college.

David Ubilava

@DavidUbilava

2 years

The wordcloud of affiliations of the editors in 49 top econ journals (ABDC: A*) circa 2020.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

More concern about coronavirus associated with more pessimistic unemployment expectations and HIGHER inflation expectations. Consistent with recent research showing that many consumers have a "bad times=high inflation" model of the economy.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 months

Great conference lined up. You can tune in online. My coauthor is presenting our paper tomorrow afternoon.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

My latest for @BrookingsInst on political party affiliation and inflation expectations shows that #TeamTransitory and #TeamPermanent were very much split on party lines. Rise in expectations came almost entirely from Republicans.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

6 years

Clambaking at my first NBER Summer Institute

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 years

@Kasey_Buckles Baby #4 has the same due date as my tenure packet!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 years

On my way to the @ecb to talk about central banks and the media. Thanks to @mcmahonecon for organizing!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 years

I found my elementary school science fair project, Shopping for Snacks. I had forgotten all about it, but now understand how I ended up researching the CPI for a living. Behold my personal consumption baskets in the late 1990s. Data and graphs to follow...

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

I am writing a book called "Purchasing Power: Prices and Legitimacy in American Democracy." Many of our big policy debates reflect different visions of the legitimate role of the state in managing/influencing prices. I'll provide historical context for proposals like this one.

Elizabeth Warren

@ewarren

2 years

Giant corporations are using inflation as a cover story to jack up prices and pad profits. Let’s pass my bill to crack down on corporate price gouging. And let’s pass our Windfall Profits Tax on Big Oil, which includes rebate checks for Americans struggling with gas prices.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

6 years

Also I wrote like 85% of this paper while feeding toddler twins at my nursing desk can I put that on my CV somewhere?

Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

6 years

I just posted a new working paper on @SSRN . "Communication without Consensus: Forward Guidance, Central Bank Projections, and Private Sector Expectations." Feedback always appreciated.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 years

Just updated my data on political pressure on central banks through 2019Q1 and it has really risen: 14% of 118 central banks reportedly face political pressure or government interference. For more info come to my talk Thursday evening at #NBERSI2019 or see

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

7 years

Fun fact: in my high school class, Clayton Kershaw & Matthew Stafford voted most likely to succeed, me voted "next Alan Greenspan" #fedchair

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

7 years

Got off plane, learned of Powell announcement and very unexpectedly cried (sorry uber driver). Optimistic about Powell but will miss Yellen.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

The @bankofengland book "Can't we just print more money?" says free banking was "inefficient. People didn't trust banknotes further away than their very local area." This is taken as failure of private money rather than of branching restrictions. @GeorgeSelgin @lawrencehwhite1

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

11 months

I'm excited to be on the line-up for this great conference!

David Beckworth

@DavidBeckworth

11 months

A week from today, we are hosting a monetary policy conference in DC with a lineup of great panelists, a live Macro Musings podcast recording, and a keynote address by Governor Chris Waller. Hope to see you there!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

Cool graph of the day shows the percent of Michigan Survey respondents who report they heard favorable or unfavorable news about employment. Look at the recent crossing: "favorable" has finally regained the lead!

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

3 years

I see your 12 gallons of milk and I raise you...

Haverford College

@haverfordedu

3 years

Associate Professor of Economics @cconces talks inflation on @Marketplace , saying that what we are seeing right now is, in part, economic psychology.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

4 years

We appreciate the discussion and the many great comments from the audience. Some days I can hardly believe what a fun job I have! The paper is here for anyone interested:

Rudi Bachmann

@BachmannRudi

4 years

Today, I discussed a beautiful paper by @cconces and @gillian_brunet using survey data from the time of the Korean War to helps us better understand inflation expectations and their relation to consumption decisions. At the @nberpubs ME spring meeting. Overall great meeting.

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

5 years

Excited to share my new paper, "Presidential Antagonism and Central Bank Credibility." Only appropriate that I share it first on Twitter. In an online experiment, I showed some respondents a @realDonaldTrump tweet about the Fed. (1/n)

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Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

1 year

Happy #pinwheel day @haverfordedu !

Carola Conces Binder

@cconces

2 years

Happy #pinwheel day!

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