Ethan BdM @ethanbdm Twitter profile

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Ethan BdM

3 years

Friends, this is the promised thread about my and Anthony Fowler's just published: Thinking Clearly with Data: A Guide to Quantitative Reasoning and Analysis It has been a decade from conception to finished product. And we are very proud of it. 1/48

Thinking Clearly with Data

An engaging introduction to data science that emphasizes critical thinking over statistical techniques

press.princeton.edu

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

This one exists now too! Thread coming soon...

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

@cblatts Hmm. Are you aware that you had a colleague who was chair of President Trump's CEA and another who served on President Bush's CEA?

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

1 year

I don't agree with this thread. Scientists are entitled to political and policy views. But calling those views scientific is confused. Scientist's political & policy views, like anyone's, reflect facts and values. They don't have any special claim to deference wrt values. 1/

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

4 months

Some professional news. I'm really excited for this opportunity.

Harris Policy

@HarrisPolicy

4 months

Prof. Ethan Bueno de Mesquita has been appointed dean of the @UChicago Harris School of Public Policy, President Paul Alivisatos and Provost Katherine Baicker announced. Read more about @Ethanbdm 's appointment at

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

@cblatts My point is, this tweet is misinformation that gives the impression that we are ideologically closed faculty when we are not. And young conservatives are reading it too.

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

Hi folks. A few months back I gave a talk at Caltech. It was the best campus visit experience I've had in quite some time. And it has made me want to change campus visit norms a bit. So today at lunch @sgehlbach told me I should tweet about it, which I'm now doing. 1/

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

I have some thoughts on the Chetty et al. papers and attendant public discussion. First, the data collection is cool and the analysis interesting. This seems like valuable social science to me. 1/

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

@cblatts We have also made enthusiasticc senior job offers that have been turned down (I don't think because of our uninviting ideological culture) to senior, public facing Republicans during your time at Harris.

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

Roland Fryer has an op-ed in the Washington Post on affirmative action in college admissions today. I have some disagreements with his argument. 1/

Opinion | Affirmative action in college admissions doesn’t work — but it could

To make affirmative action consistent with true meritocracy, universities should use machine-learning algorithms for admissions decisions.

www.washingtonpost.com

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@ethanbdm

2 years

I went to a frustrating informational session for parents of high schoolers getting ready to apply to college yesterday. The person presenting went on and on about how schools no long care about standardized tests because "the data show they are not predictive." 1/

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

For those of you starting to think about your classes for next year, your occasional reminder that two of my books--Thinking Clearly with Data and Political Economy for Public Policy--have extensive teaching materials freely available online. 1/4

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

My (purely introspective, evidence-free) view on smoothing the classes to research transition for PhD students is this: Encourage PhD students to be trying to write papers basically from day one. The papers will (mostly) be bad. That 's fine. There are several benefits: 1/3

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

But, speaking as a visitor, I way preferred learning about everyone else's work than talking more about my own. And I think if we all adopted the Caltech approach, we'd learn more and have more fun on/ our campus visits. That's all. 8/8

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

@itaisher @georgeawarner @DavidDecosimo @cblatts In truth, the vast majority of what goes on among the vast majority of faculty and students at the vast majority of universities is the quiet, unglamorous, non-ideological work of learning, studying, and researching. Their ongoing assault on us is neither deserved nor accurate.

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

I'm trying to solve for equilibrium prices and my white board is full of Lagrange multipliers. I feel like I'm 23 again.

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

The thing that I know now that I most wish I'd known when I started my PhD is: If you dip the eggs in the boiling water for 10-15 seconds before cracking them, the whites don't spread out and you get perfect poached eggs every time.

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

Honesty is not the best policy. A carbon tax with compensatory reductions in distortionary taxes is the best policy.

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

1 year

So it turns out my professional duties are taking a somewhat unplanned turn for a while. If you must select on the dependent variable or misuse "begs the question", your window of opportunity opens March 1.

Professor Ethan Bueno de Mesquita Named Interim Dean

harris.uchicago.edu

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

I asked Dall-E to "draw the perfect instrument for any 2SLS application" and here's what I got.

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

We've been dreaming about making this happen for at lest the 14 years I've been at Chicago. We are just thrilled that it is finally a reality. Please consider recommending our program to your promising students and advisees. We'll do right by them.

Scott Gehlbach

@sgehlbach

3 years

Big news: The Department of Political Science and the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago are launching a new Ph.D program in political economy. We have been working on this for over a year...I am thrilled to share some details. 1/

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

Do you think Jean Tirole ever once thought to himself, "maybe I should leave a few of the tractable problems for the rest of them to work on"?

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

Life is full of trade-offs. Reasonable people can disagree about how to balance them. We ought not pretend that part is science. An important lesson for *all* policy-adjacent researchers.

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

23 days

All I do is run a public policy school with a couple hundred employees and I cannot for the life of me figure out how presidents of the United States have time to golf.

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

For Holocaust Remembrance. The painting that hangs in my living room. By the artist Max Bueno de Mesquita (), one of the few members of my grandfather's family not murdered at Auschwitz. The painting depicts mother and child going to the gas chamber.

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

1 year

My paper with @soashworth and Chris Berry on "Modeling Theories of Women's Underrepresentation" is now available on Early View @AJPSEditor . 1/

American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library

Research on women candidates in American elections uncovers four key facts: Women (i) are underrepresented among candidates, (ii) are underrepresented among office holders, (iii) perform better in...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

1 year

For those of you starting to think about your classes for next year, your occasional reminder that two of my books--Thinking Clearly with Data and Political Economy for Public Policy--have extensive teaching materials freely available online. 1/5

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

Writing a serious external review takes a lot of time. The only decision which is sufficiently important to merit asking for that much of 12 people's time is tenure. Eliminate letters for non-tenure reviews, including junior both faculty reappointments and promotion to full.

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@ethanbdm

2 years

Following @itaisher 's lead because I too can't reply. The first and last tweets are in tension. Optimal and second best build in utilitarianism as the social goal. There is no such thing as a value free optimal or second best policy. You can't just follow the science.

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@ethanbdm

2 years

Imagine it is August 1 and you aren't ready to teach. Then you learn that lecture notes, in class activities, video lectures, and quizzes for my book Political Economy for Public Policy are freely available on my website. What a good day it would be!

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@ethanbdm

1 year

Moreover, it is not great for science or society when scientists elide this distinction. It makes others (both the policymakers they advise and the public) worry the scientists would fudge the evidence if it didn't suit their values. 2/

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@ethanbdm

2 years

I find it more likely that a relatively unsophisticated algorithm, like selecting on grades and scores, but conditioning on hard-to-game markers of disadvantage like family income, first-gen status, or high school resources will better achieve the outcomes Fryer endorses. 21/21

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@ethanbdm

2 years

Knowledge creation is slow, deliberate, and unglamorous. Adam Davidson, perhaps unintentionally, explains why pushing academics to be ever more accessible, relevant, impactful, or public facing is corrosive to that mission. Research and story telling are different endeavors.

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@ethanbdm

13 days

Today I returned to that problem with fresh eyes. And reader, I am here to report that I am still completely unable to make any progress on it at all. And for the exact same reasons as before vacation. Vacation is a scam. 3/3

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@ethanbdm

3 years

Hot take: There should be political science groups in schools of public health for the same reason we exist in schools of public policy.

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@ethanbdm

2 years

So it is disappointing to me that the dictates of public facing social science result in over-interpretation of the sort others have flagged. I think such over-claiming is not good for public discourse, for social scientists' role in society, or for future research. 14/

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@ethanbdm

1 year

Moreover, this sort of public position makes certain people with values that differ from the author's worry that scientists won't truthfully report the facts about climate change. I just don't see how science or society benefits from this sort of muddying of the waters. 5/5

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@ethanbdm

2 years

That means, among admitted students at a selective school, there is typically going to be a negative correlation between test scores and grades. Notice, this is exactly the opposite of the correlation between test scores and grades in the larger population. 4/

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@ethanbdm

2 years

Alright AEA folks, here's a thread on eating in New Orleans. I'm far from an expert. But I've had some great meals this week. I focus on places not requiring reservations. You don't need me to tell you about Commander's Palace, Pesche, or places belonging to Top Chefs. 1/n

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@ethanbdm

4 months

I'd like to believe that when people say we should teach statistics in high school they mean Thinking Clearly with Data, which would be a delightful high school textbook. I'd also like to believe they are joking when they say it should replace calculus.

Thinking Clearly with Data

An engaging introduction to data science that emphasizes critical thinking over statistical techniques

press.princeton.edu

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

The Harris School is searching for assistant professors in political science and/or political economy. Open with respect to subfield or areas. Please apply and send us your best students! EOE/Vet/Disability @womenalsoknow @POCalsoknow

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@ethanbdm

2 years

Interested deans of admissions, or anyone else, can learn all about it in Chapter 16 of my and Anthony Fowler's Thinking Clearly with Data. 10/10

Thinking Clearly with Data

An engaging introduction to data science that emphasizes critical thinking over statistical techniques

press.princeton.edu

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

@dylanmatt Sorry to self-promote, by Fowler and I wrote wrote our book hoping it would be useful for people with exactly this goal. We also taught this material in a course for journalists developed jointly with WBEZ, though the effort was interrupted by COVID.

Thinking Clearly with Data

An engaging introduction to data science that emphasizes critical thinking over statistical techniques

press.princeton.edu

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

7 months

I wrote some thoughts on the congressional hearings, free speech, leadership, and campus culture @BostonReview . Much appreciation to Scott Ashworth, @itaisher , @jcohen570 , and @mlordlordm who offered much needed feedback, pushback, and advice.

The Future of Speech on Campus - Boston Review

Private universities should respond to the charge of hypocrisy with a maximalist approach to free speech.

www.bostonreview.net

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

5 months

The 17 year old is heading to college in August. So, to my friends @VandyPoliSci and @VanderbiltEcon , I am available to give a talk, attend a conference, or serve as a discussant absolutely any time.

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@ethanbdm

2 years

Thus, if you find no relationship between test scores and college grades among *enrolled students*, that doesn't mean that there is no correlation between test scores and college grades among *applicants*, which is the predictive question college admissions cares about. 7/

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@ethanbdm

1 year

Glad to report that my and @ShadmehrMehdi 's paper, "Social Norms and Social Change" is available @qjps_editors .

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@ethanbdm

4 months

My son's first publication. It's a computer science paper. He's chosen not to go into the family business.

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@ethanbdm

2 years

Every single person I met with showed up at the meeting and said, "I've got a paper I'm working on that I want to tell you about, do you mind if I write on the white board?" I spent the day hearing 30 minute presentations of people's most interesting current ideas. 3/

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@ethanbdm

2 months

We @HarrisPolicy are proud to launch our Public Sector Scholarship guaranteeing a minimum of $40,000 in scholarship to those with 3 years of public sector service. People dedicated to serving society should have access to the world's best policy education.

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@ethanbdm

2 years

This is wrong for many reasons. But the most straightforward reason is the selection problem. Schools admit on several criteria. For instance, if you have good test scores, you can get in with worse grades and vice versa. 3/

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@ethanbdm

1 year

Great news here at Harris! Congratulations to @soashworth .

Harris Policy

@HarrisPolicy

1 year

Congratulations @soashworth on being named the Homer J. Livingston Professor at the Harris School of Public Policy!

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@ethanbdm

1 year

The person accepts a scientific fact about climate change. Now suppose they believe "regulator restrictions on liberty can't be justified on consequentialist grounds." Does the author believe that value judgment is unscientific? If not, what's science got to do with it? 4/

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

3 years

@itaisher @georgeawarner @DavidDecosimo @cblatts I don't disagree. But I sympathize w/ those who are fed up w/ being ridiculed by the likes of Bari Weiss, who self-servingly reports on a handful of cases to make universities seem like ideological trash heaps and herself (and friends) appear the sole defenders of truth seeking.

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@ethanbdm

18 days

President Biden has unlimited access to the public attention. It's easy to provide hard evidence of being sharp as a tack. The unraveling theorem does the rest of the work.

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@ethanbdm

2 years

There may be good justice-based or other reasons for schools to go test optional. But doing so because tests are non-predictive among their enrolled students is a basic failure to think clearly with data. 9/

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@ethanbdm

1 year

My father and I co-authored a paper about how the political economy of Church-Lay Leader relations in medieval Europe was changed by the institutions created by the Concordat of Worms. I'll do a thread in the coming days, but for now here it is @The_JOP .

From Investiture to Worms: European Development and the Rise of Political Authority | The Journal...

The endogenous consequences of competition between the Roman Catholic Church and lay political rulers set into motion by the Investiture Controversy contribute new insights into European economic,...

www.journals.uchicago.edu

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@ethanbdm

2 years

I have concerns, mostly related to skepticism about whether "sophisticated machine-learning algorithms" can solve hard social problems. Many of these concerns are informed by the kind of ideas Anthony Fowler and I discuss in Thinking Clearly with Data. 8/

Thinking Clearly with Data

An engaging introduction to data science that emphasizes critical thinking over statistical techniques

press.princeton.edu

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@ethanbdm

3 years

I know some folks weren't fans of this essay. But as I think about the tragic news of the week, the argument still seems solid to me.

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@ethanbdm

2 years

I believe university professors should strive to do good work (which these folks have definitely done) and talk about it in a straightforward manner. And we should be prepared to live with it if that means big media outlets don't want to quote us. 15/15

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@ethanbdm

8 months

This is a really nice paper. I'll describe my favorite result: Suppose there's a minority of voters who observe policy choices and a majority of less informed voters who only observe something like their own allocation or outcome. 1/

Benjamin Blumenthal

@bnjmnblmnthl

8 months

📣I'm on the Econ Job Market this year, and it's JMP time! 🤓 My JMP "Voter Information and Distributive Politics" is available here () More details on my work can be found on my website:

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Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

TL;DR College admissions is a hard problem. But I'm skeptical that the answer lies in "sophisticated machine learning algorithms". 20/

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@ethanbdm

2 years

@prisonrodeo What if you've never used (or even heard of) tidyverse, but the only things you've done with R involve modifying (over and over again) a function called 'ethans_little_function' that @WashUChancellor wrote for you in approximately the year 2004?

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@ethanbdm

1 year

I hear you wondering, "Is political economy relevant for public policy?" Now you can find out at 50% off with @PrincetonUPress 's summer sale!

Political Economy for Public Policy

The ideal introductory textbook to the politics of the policymaking process

press.princeton.edu

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@ethanbdm

1 year

The argument, from the thread, that science implies that it isn't ok for a person to conclude "climate change may be real, but I don't think we should have government regulation to deal with it," illustrates the point. 3/

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@ethanbdm

3 years

No matter how bleak things look for democracy, it still isn't ok to select on the dependent variable.

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@ethanbdm

3 years

We @HarrisPolicy are running an open-field junior search in politics. Everyone is encouraged to apply. @womenalsoknow @POCalsoknow EOE/Vet/Disability

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@ethanbdm

1 year

That this is getting so much attention and is being retweeted by important academics is not great. It is a straightforward implication of a simple spatial model of legislation, even if MTG is an extreme outlier. It does not imply the average Republican agrees with MTG. 1/

No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen

@NoLieWithBTC

1 year

This really says it all: Almost every single House Republican votes with Marjorie Taylor Greene *over 90%* of the time. The idea that she’s the “outlier” is just wrong. She IS the Republican Party. (h/t @CAPAction )

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@ethanbdm

13 days

I'd like to share an story that taught me something about research and from which, I flatter myself to think, my followers might also learn something. For the past month, I struggled to prove a final result in a model I've been working on for years. 1/

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@ethanbdm

2 years

Anyway, as I say, not revolutionary. Just academics talking about ideas. But I feel like, in these 30 minute meetings, we often think the polite thing is to ask the visitor about their work even though we are about to spend the seminar learning about their work. 6/

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@ethanbdm

6 days

Delighted to find that @dieworkwear has solid causal inference intuitions. Here we see him getting the fundamental problem of causal inference correct in its essentials.

derek guy

@dieworkwear

6 days

@KenRiesz In this specific case, the idea would be to encourage gun owners to secure their firearms. If the father's gun was secured, perhaps the shooter would have to go out and buy his own gun, or lie and tell his father he needed the gun for something else. Would it have definitely

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@ethanbdm

2 years

People showed little model derivations, research designs, pictures of equilibria, etc. on the board. It was awesome. I learned what everyone was thinking about, asked lots of questions, got to offer thoughts or suggestions to the extent that I had them. 4/

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@ethanbdm

9 months

@liorjs @UChicagoLaw I did a lunch discussion with 50 MPP students yesterday: half our time on the sources of the gender-wage gap and half on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Exact same experience.

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@ethanbdm

3 years

IMPORTANT PSA!!! LaTeX changed how \input works in a way that messes with direct import of Stata tables through estout. SO STOP DOING EMPIRICAL WORK!!! Or, alternatively, in your preamble, replace \let\estinput=\input with \makeatletter \let\estinput=\@ @input

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@ethanbdm

1 year

Sometimes I tell junior faculty I was happier as an assistant professor. They roll their eyes and say I'm remembering the past through rose-tinted glasses. Then I explain to them that, when I was an assistant professor, I'd never heard of a Bartik instrument.

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@ethanbdm

3 years

@EpiEllie Is your argument that there are no reasonable trade-offs to consider here? That any risk of COVID infection is lexicographically more important than any amount of the other stuff? If not, what position is this meant to support? If so, why do you think that?

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@ethanbdm

1 year

Here's the promised thread on the paper my father and I wrote together on the political, religious, and economic consequences of the resolution of the investiture controversy in the cocordats of Worms (and Paris and London). 1/

Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

1 year

My father and I co-authored a paper about how the political economy of Church-Lay Leader relations in medieval Europe was changed by the institutions created by the Concordat of Worms. I'll do a thread in the coming days, but for now here it is @The_JOP .

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@ethanbdm

3 years

It puts students in the right mindset. 1. They start thinking of idea generation as their main task. 2. They process the methods and ideas they're learning through the lens of "how could I springboard into my own ideas?" 2/3

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@ethanbdm

2 years

@awmercer Here's what Anthony and I do in Thinking Clearly with Data.

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@ethanbdm

3 years

3. It also can help with the classroom learning. For me, learning and internalizing technique went way faster and deeper when it was necessitated by a challenge posed by a paper idea rather than by a problem set. 3/3

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@ethanbdm

2 years

Fancy machine learning algorithms do not solve these fundamental inference problems, no matter what their boosters claim. Economists have been leading the discussion about such issues for decades and should continue to educate the public about them. 11/

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@ethanbdm

2 years

@economeager Same. But game theory. And setting students for a lifetime of not having to analyze data at all.

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@ethanbdm

3 years

If it's helpful as we enter another remote teaching scramble: Slides, in class activities, data/code, and exercise solutions for two of my books are freely available: Thinking Clearly with Data Political Economy for Public Policy

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@ethanbdm

2 years

@economeager @bartbing71 We talk about this in several places in Thinking Clearly with Data. Here's some of what we say... 1/2

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@ethanbdm

3 years

This is a terrible loss. There are few scholars I admire as I do Bob. He was the clearest of thinkers. His papers are just a delight. He worked on the most pressing and important problems, making deep, fundamental contributions. And he was kind, generous, and encouraging.

Sean Gailmard

@SeanGailmard

3 years

My friend and colleague Bob Powell passed away today. Bob was an unequalled scholarly force, an incredibly generous colleague, and an intellectual hero to many of us including me. His memory will always be a gift to our field and to Berkeley. I will miss him immensely.

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@ethanbdm

2 years

This lovely review of Thinking Clearly with Data on Goodreads made my day.

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@ethanbdm

2 years

Bloomberg named my father's new book, "the Invention of Power: Popes, Kings, and the Birth of the West", one of the best non-fiction books of 2022.

Best Nonfiction of 2022: Great Books That Will Make You Think

In a year when people seem extremely wedded to their opinions, great nonfiction still has the power to persuade.

www.bloomberg.com

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@ethanbdm

2 years

And who will be best at gaming the algorithm? Privileged students who can afford consultants (I mean, counselors) and the like. 17/

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@ethanbdm

5 months

Everyone knows that the right way to find a research questions is to read the literature from a discipline 1-2 rungs down the prestige ladder from your own and answer their questions "the [insert your discipline here] way."

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@ethanbdm

2 years

One little side note. Omer Tamuz even graciously agreed to my request that he teach me how the proof of the main result in this paper works rather than telling me about whatever new idea he was working on, which I really appreciated. 5/

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@ethanbdm

2 years

Rather, kids with higher test scores had lower high school grades on average and kids with lower test scores had higher high school grades on average. If both are predictive of college grades in the population, there are offsetting effects in the sample of enrolled students. 6/

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@ethanbdm

2 years

The negative correlation among enrolled students (which is who gets analyzed in a school's internal study) means that when you compare the college grades of students with higher and lower test scores, you aren't holding high school grades (or other admissions criteria) fixed. 5/

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49

Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

For Thinking Clearly with Data: lecture notes, in-class activities, syllabi, downloadable data, and exercise solutions (R & Stata code) are available at the Princeton University Press website (you have to request access for some of it). 2/4

Instructor Resources

press.princeton.edu

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5

53

Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

2 years

Since we are doing teaching tips, here's mine. Don't write a textbook for the course you teach and put all your good jokes from lecture in the textbook. The students who do the readings will notice that you are recycling the comedic material.

2

0

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