My book shipment arrived today. Excited to see it in print. I owe many thanks to many people -- in the days to come, I'll be thanking folks for their help.
Frustrating NYT obit on Zawahiri. There is this persistent attempt to make him the mastermind of 9/11 (and several earlier attacks) despite little evidence he played a leading role--the 9/11 Commission, among others, made this clear.
Whatever Happened to Al Qaeda? - The once-powerful organization’s disappearance from headlines and the broader foreign-policy conversation is remarkable.
@asfandyarmir
& I got tired of simplistic debates about whether Al Qaeda is strong or weak. Although we disagree--rather, BECAUSE we disagree--we decided to write a piece together. Assessing al-Qaeda: A Debate
If the conflict escalates beyond Ukraine, one worry is Russian support for extremist groups in Europe and even some activity in the United States--something Shelby Butt and I wrote about in Survival:
“Kyiv is everything. This war is about Kyiv,” he said. “If they don’t take Kyiv, they lose. For the Ukrainians, not losing is winning.” The war in Ukraine isn’t working out the way Russia intended
My friend and Georgetown colleague
@hoffman_bruce
read parts of my draft manuscript and has otherwise helped this project -- Bruce is among the world's very top terrorism and extremism scholars (and an amazing teacher). Getting his take made the book far stronger.
My book examines the rise of white supremacist and right-wing extremism in Europe as well as the United States. The thoughts of
@jeanYvesCamus1
were invaluable for understanding the situation in Europe and France in particular
Yes, despite the price Ukraine is inflicting on Russia, it unfortunately still seems a question of "when" rather than "if" with regard to the ultimate Russian victory.
My thoughts on how counterterrorism has improved: For 20 years since 9/11, the U.S. has staved off any comparable attack on its homeland. Will its counterterrorism measures hold for the future, too? via
@WSJ
My last book blurb was provided by
@benjaminwittes
, a close friend and someone whose insights on national security have long shaped my own thinking -- Ben never fails to force me to think harder and more critically, even about subjects I know well.
As promised, I am acknowledging some of the many people who helped with my book. Before I name specific individuals, let me thank the students in my classes over the years. At
@georgetownsfs
&
@GeorgetownCSS
, I'm teaching the brightest of minds, and I learn from them every day.
Excellent
@EliotACohen
analysis. I thought Ukraine would lose when the war began; I later became impressed with its resistance but still pessimistic. I am now guardedly optimistic--happy to have my initial doubts on Ukraine's staying power proven wrong.
In this article I argue that there is value examining the Reconstruction period using concepts borrowed from counterterrorism and counterinsurgency (h/t
@MorganLKaplan
) White Supremacy, Terrorism, and the Failure of Reconstruction in the United States
2 big risks with US withdrawal: humanitarian and terrorism-related. Humanitarian cost painfully clear and will remain so for anyone watching. I'm more skeptical that Afghanistan will become a base for Al Qaeda as it was before 9/11. My thoughts on that:
"The C.I.A. for years has been pessimistic about the training of the Afghan security forces. But the Defense Intelligence Agency and other intelligence shops within the Pentagon delivered more optimistic assessments about the Afghans’ preparedness"
THREAD: 20 years ago today, the best known daily intelligence item in history—the article "Bin Laden is Determined to Strike"—appeared in George W. Bush’s President’s Daily Brief.
Here’s the story of its creation, based on my interviews with its author and intel leaders:
1/12
My thoughts on the threat in 2022: Assessing the right-wing terror threat in the United States a year after the January 6 insurrection via
@BrookingsInst
My thoughts on today's most pressing terrorism problem (with many thanks to
@hoffman_bruce
for his insights) Counterterrorism and Modern White Supremacy
As we mourn those lost in the
#BuffaloMassacre
, it's tempting to overstate the coherence of the white supremacist movement and the skills of its adherents. I'd recommend this
@BrookingsInst
report I did with
@egavactip
of the
@ADL
for some nuance:
A true one-of-a-kind, honest-to-goodness giant in the field. What a legacy, not only in his scholarship but in all the students he inspired over the decades and those he will continue to inspire as new generations encounter his work for the first time.
Everyone who studies extremism knows the work of
@intelwire
-- JM's research is always fresh, clear, and deeply informed. My thanks to him for his help with my book.
As I researched and wrote my book,
@tcwittes
was an ever-present source of support and inspiration. She helped me as I struggled to form my initial ideas, as I crafted the manuscript, and then as I polished my findings. I can't thank her enough.
A suicide bomber stormed into a Shia mosque and blew himself up during Friday prayers in Pakistan, killing at least 56 worshippers and wounding 194 others
My thoughts on foreign fighters going to Ukraine. BLUF: it's largely a bad idea, though parallels with jihadists who went to fight in Syria and other conflicts are inexact at best .
Let me start my specific thanks with my blurbers, whose kind words at the back mean so much to me.
@heidibeirich
is one of the world's leading researchers--I've learned a tremendous amount from her, and I am grateful for all she does to educate us on extremism and help fight it
Thrilled to see
@POTUS
nominate
@tcwittes
as
@USAID
Assistant Administrator for the Middle East. Tammy is a leading voice on the region who has shaped policy from in & out of government. She's also a founder of
@lc_wins
which does so much to advocate for women in foreign affairs.
To understand the power of local mayors and other democratic leaders in these circumstances, I recommend Steinbeck's WWII novel "The Moon is Down" (set in a fictional version of occupied Norway).
Proud to have known and been an occasional colleague of Daniel Benjamin, now heading the American Academy in Berlin. He is a leading policymaker and thinker on counterterrorism, and his insights made my research much stronger.
2021 is an odd year for political violence in the US so far. A lot of mixing of violent rhetoric, insurrection (1/6), etc. But no jihadist attacks on US soil, and no white supremacist mass terrorist attacks
The German white supremacist world is complex, both from a terrorism and from a counterterrorism point of view. Daniel Koehler
@GIRD_S
superb guided me through its twists and turns -- many thanks to him for all his time and help.
Everyone who follows extremism knows the great work of
@SeamusHughes
. He is also one of the most generous people in the field, and I am grateful for the help he provided me with my book.
Fighting white supremacists requires tackling their online presence--a challenge fraught with technological, legal and ethical difficulties.
@ErinSaltman
proved a fantastic guide, offering many insights on the challenges but also on ways companies and civil society can do better.
So proud Pat Ryan, my former
@GeorgetownCSS
student
@georgetownsfs
won -- he was a great student who will be a great representative for New York and public servant
Proud of the awesome
@georgetownsfs
&
@GeorgetownCSS
students involved in this important report: AI and the Future of Disinformation Campaigns - Center for Security and Emerging Technology
I learned a tremendous amount from
@Jason_Blazakis
about how the U.S. government thinks about and categorizes terrorism -- he is always generous with his time and tremendous expertise.
The white supremacist world today is incredibly complex. Fortunately, we have experts like
@cassiepmiller
of the
@splcenter
. She is incredibly knowledgable, and I am grateful for the many insights she shared with me.
Intermittent terrorist attacks have blinded us to a deeper trend: the steady increase in the coercive power of the technocratic state. Technology has made organized rebellion virtually impossible in rich states, I argue in
@ForeignAffairs
Exactly -- in civil wars, defection and desertion are huge variables, and success of the other side in one area can make this much more likely in others
Momentum in war is a real thing. Weakness of Afghan forces leads to quick Taliban gains, leads to side deals and surrenders, creates a perception of further weakness, leads to more T gains + side deals. Afghan government needs a stop soon, and is running out of places to do it.
And we have a cover for the
@Georgetown_UP
book by me and
@tcwittes
that will be out later this year! We hope this book will help PhDs who want to work in foreign policy.
My thoughts with
@chrismeserole
&
@vssubrah
: The internet will soon be awash in AI-generated fakery indiscernible from fact. For democracies that value open dialogue, there’s no simple solution. via
@WSJ
Missing from this otherwise excellent piece is the responsibility of the Pakistan government for the Taliban's success in Afghanistan -- a victory that is now devastating Pakistan itself.