Space policy wonk, former engineer, husband, father, all around geek. I tweet things I find insightful, informative, or provocative. All views and are my own.
Wow,
@SciGuySpace
just went there, asking Bill Nelson about when he wrote the SLS law did he take into consideration problems with LH2. (Answer: "we deferred to the experts.")
Seeing umbrage that SpaceX did not win one of NASA's spacesuit contracts. The reality is you don't want SpaceX to win every NASA contract. Commercial space needs a diversity of healthy companies to survive. If commercial space is seen as "SpaceX only" it loses government support.
1/ With this huge milestone of 4,000 operational Starlink satellites from
@SpaceX
, I think it's worth pausing for a moment to reflect on what it means for
#spacesustainability
1\ So I will go out on a limb and offer my own speculation that this dastardly Russian space thing is perhaps some sort of nuclear-powered electronic warfare satellite
After decades of ridiculing anyone who suggested the Space Shuttle or X-37B might be used as a weapon, the Space Force's first official painting is....a spaceplane being used as a weapon?
With LeoLabs confirming debris "near" Kosmos-1408 and CNN quoting US officials that there was an ASAT test, rumours are solidfiying into a consistent story that indeed a Russian antisatellite test on Nov 13 or 14 hit Kosmos-1408 causing a debris cloud intersecting the ISS orbit
10/ So, to sum up, we know there was a debris event and its PLAUSIBLE it was caused by an ASAT test but do not yet have confirmation. If we get reports of a much larger debris cloud, then that will be a big sign...
6/ The ISS will keep passing through the Cosmos 1408 debris field every ~90 min or so for the next day, which is why they've been directed to prep for potential collisions:
Mission control has informed the crew that some space station hatches will need to stay closed through Tuesday because of the threat from the debris cloud after a satellite breakup. "It's a crazy way to start a mission," they told the astronauts:
SpaceX says the Starlink constellation has done nearly 7,000 automated maneuvers in the last 6 months to avoid potential collisions, 1,700 of which were due to Russian ASAT debris
7/ It seems Russia posted a NOTAM for a missile launch from 0200-0500Z on 15-17 Nov, which roughly corresponded to a flight test of a Nudol DA-ASAT out of Plesetsk
@Astro_Pam
“We need to develop our Moon to Mars strategy. And the space community knows we want to go - but the public needs to understand why we want to go.”
While China may have (finally) matched the optical resolution of US spy satellites, I suspect they have a ways to go to match the wide range of other types of space-based ISR capabilities the US has at its disposal
5/ It was also a LARGE spacecraft (~ 2,000 kg) so if it was a hypervelocity collision (large debris or ASAT KKV), we'd expect hundreds to thousands of resulting debris
We space nerds tend to focus far too much on the satellites in orbit and need to pay a lot more attention to the ground infrastructure that makes everything work
Here is the pass of Kosmos-1408 (red line) northbound over Plesetsk at about 0245 UTC Nov 15. Well aligned with the NOTAM areas (indicated) for the suspected Nudol antisatellite test.
With new data from Kiwi Space Radar gathered at 1620 UTC, we confirm detection of multiple objects near expected location of Cosmos 1408. We will share supporting data as we gather it today.
I wish the public was able to hear the skepticism actual
#AI
experts have on its value for national security decisionmaking vs. the optimism/hype expressed by pundits, strategists, & politicians who don't understand the technology
New piece from me on how the US can (and should!) become a leader in cleaning up space by modeling a remediation R&D program after NASA's Commercial Cargo and Crew programs:
2\ That would make more sense than a nuclear weapon for attacking satellites, and also has some background as discussed at length in this 2019 article on the Ekipazh program:
1/ So what's the German word for having strong feelings of both sadness of a departure and also excitement about the future? Because whatever that is, it's what I've got right now
Secure World Foundation bids a bittersweet farewell to Dr.
@brianweeden
as he embarks on a new journey with Aerospace's Center for Space Policy and Strategy. A pivotal figure in space sustainability, his legacy at SWF is unparalleled.
A know a lot of space advocates don't like this, but I'll submit if it weren't true there would be a lot less political support for NASA, which may be an even worse outcome
This is a phenomena we're only just starting to understand and could become a real problem as we rapidly scale up the number of satellites re-entering the atmosphere
🧵 A few observations regarding Israel’s operation at Al Shifa Hospital. When I was in seat, it was broadly suspected/understood as far back as 2014 that Hamas used the Al Shifa Hospital complex as a command center and base for operations.
If only I had a dollar for every pundit and reporter declaring "this is a Sputnik moment!" without actually knowing what happened with Sputnik, I could afford my own hypersonic weapon
The United States (🇺🇸) will reportedly receive Russia's (🇷🇺) Krasukha-4 mobile electronic warfare system, which was recently captured in
#Ukraine
(🇺🇦).
This is one of Russia's most capable Electronic Warfare Systems and potentially an intelligence goldmine.
5/ Today, we know for a fact that this autonomous system works. Between July-Dec 2021, Starlink satellites did 3,300 maneuvers to reduce the probability of a collision with other space objects
1/ Last week I had the honor of testifying before
@USCC_GOV
on China's approaches to international space law and norms. My written testimony and the recording are available below, but I wanted to draw out some key points
Last week,
@brianweeden
appeared before the
@uscc_gov
to testify on China's actions in space regarding international norms/laws. The video recording and full written testimony is now available:
\4 one more thing - I would not be surprised if this was linked to Cosmos 2575, which is a classified Russian satellite launched on Feb 9, which would be just enough time for the IC to do its thing...
My timeline is now a combo of devastating ground war in Europe and North Korean missile/nuclear shenanigans and can we please go back to just having a global pandemic to worry about?
15/ So bottom line, the worst fears about
#megaconstellations
mucking up space have not materialized, but that doesn't mean we can stop worrying all together just yet!
8/ Data compiled by
@planet4589
shows that while the failure rate of Starlinks is somewhat higher than desired, the decision to launch into a very low orbit & then raise to ops altitude means failed sats decay pretty quickly
Space-based jamming is something we've long suspected was going on but had very little public data on. Let's hope this piece changes that conversation:
Very interesting analysis of
#Cosmos1408
debris suggests that Russia may have tried to minimize the debris created by using a "rear-end" collision but still got it wrong
Want to commend
@planet4589
for putting together a comprehensive page on all the planned large satellite constellations - it's my go-to quick reference:
1/ This is a great article by
@CaseyDreier
explaining why SLS is all about optimizing for political reasons, not technical ones, and why that is important to sustainability
Q for
@SciGuySpace
@thesheetztweetz
@BryceSpaceTech
or anyone else who might know - what’s the annual revenue from COMMERCIAL customers (i.e. not from govt sales) SpaceX taken in for launch services over the last 5 years?
So does this mean HIMARS is using the civil GPS signals instead of M-Code (which is much harder to jam)? Is that part of the downgrade package or is HIMARS old enough to not use M-Code at all?
Russia has been thwarting US-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System in Ukraine more frequently in recent months, using electronic jammers to throw off its GPS guided targeting system to cause rockets to miss their targets.
9/ In fact, failed/EOL Starlink satellites have been deorbited much faster than the international standard of 25 years (at least so far), which a fair number of govts don't themselves abide by
Excellent round-up of today’s events around the
#Cosmos1408
ASAT test from
@joroulette
, including what the astronauts on the ISS had to do to protect themselves
Last May, the profitable
@chicagotribune
was acquired by the notorious vulture firm Alden Global Capital. They suffered waves of downsizing, including a sell-off of the iconic Tribute Building. Today, a skeleton crew puts out the Trib from "a newsroom the size of a Chipotle."
1/
1) very few (if any?) of these close approaches would have actually resulted in collisions
2) that Starlink can do this autonomously is an incredible feat of engineering
3) we should still be concerned about risks of deploying massive constellations
7/ On another big measure of
#spacesustainability
, proper disposal at end-of-life, again SpaceX and Starlink have been doing remarkably well compared to some of the prior expectations
Too close for comfort. 😳
At ~06:30 UTC today we observed a conjunction at 608 km between two non-maneuverable spacecraft: a derelict Russian satellite and an operational NASA satellite.
Miss distance = <20 meters
Probability of collision = 3 to 8% at TCA