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brianweeden

@brianweeden

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Space policy wonk, former engineer, husband, father, all around geek. I tweet things I find insightful, informative, or provocative. All views and are my own.

Washington, DC
Joined March 2008
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
I knew one of the Senate staffers who literally designed SLS in a conference room
@WordsmithFL
Stephen C. Smith / Нет войне 🇺🇦
2 years
Wow, @SciGuySpace just went there, asking Bill Nelson about when he wrote the SLS law did he take into consideration problems with LH2. (Answer: "we deferred to the experts.")
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
1/ (THREAD) Ok, short thread rounding up what we know so far on the #Cosmos1408 breakup, potentially as a result of a Russian ASAT test
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
Exactly this. If the only answer is Elon/SpaceX, then there isn’t actually a commercial industry. Just a monopoly.
@SciGuySpace
Eric Berger
2 years
Seeing umbrage that SpaceX did not win one of NASA's spacesuit contracts. The reality is you don't want SpaceX to win every NASA contract. Commercial space needs a diversity of healthy companies to survive. If commercial space is seen as "SpaceX only" it loses government support.
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
1/ With this huge milestone of 4,000 operational Starlink satellites from @SpaceX , I think it's worth pausing for a moment to reflect on what it means for #spacesustainability
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
Mass combat at the Well of Dragons using @mattcolville 's Kingdoms and Warfare rules
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
6 months
1\ So I will go out on a limb and offer my own speculation that this dastardly Russian space thing is perhaps some sort of nuclear-powered electronic warfare satellite
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
Great overview of just how cool NASA's Lucy mission is. I mean just look at this funky trajectory diagram!
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
10 months
After decades of ridiculing anyone who suggested the Space Shuttle or X-37B might be used as a weapon, the Space Force's first official painting is....a spaceplane being used as a weapon?
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
4 months
Plan ahead!
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
RIP my actual Monday to-do list
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
It is looking that way (slight tweak that the test was earlier today on the 15th), and if so it was beyond irresponsible for Russia to do this.
@planet4589
Jonathan McDowell
3 years
With LeoLabs confirming debris "near" Kosmos-1408 and CNN quoting US officials that there was an ASAT test, rumours are solidfiying into a consistent story that indeed a Russian antisatellite test on Nov 13 or 14 hit Kosmos-1408 causing a debris cloud intersecting the ISS orbit
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
10/ So, to sum up, we know there was a debris event and its PLAUSIBLE it was caused by an ASAT test but do not yet have confirmation. If we get reports of a much larger debris cloud, then that will be a big sign...
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
6/ The ISS will keep passing through the Cosmos 1408 debris field every ~90 min or so for the next day, which is why they've been directed to prep for potential collisions:
@SpaceflightNow
Spaceflight Now
3 years
Mission control has informed the crew that some space station hatches will need to stay closed through Tuesday because of the threat from the debris cloud after a satellite breakup. "It's a crazy way to start a mission," they told the astronauts:
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
Yes, but let's also ensure the UAG is representative of actual end users of space, not just companies trying to land contracts
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
NASA says the @18SPCS has determined that the breakup of a Chinese weather satellite last March was caused by collision with a piece of #spacedebris
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
Turns out killing hundreds of people by remote control, often not knowing why, takes a mental toll on you
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
10 months
1/ Short thread on the space components of this year's China Military Power Report, which was released by the Pentagon last week
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
SpaceX says the Starlink constellation has done nearly 7,000 automated maneuvers in the last 6 months to avoid potential collisions, 1,700 of which were due to Russian ASAT debris
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
7/ It seems Russia posted a NOTAM for a missile launch from 0200-0500Z on 15-17 Nov, which roughly corresponded to a flight test of a Nudol DA-ASAT out of Plesetsk
@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
Well shit. (H/T @The_Lookout_N )
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
Well shit. (H/T @The_Lookout_N )
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
5 months
Space nerds unite! Had an amazing time hanging out with @planet4589 and getting an updated tour of his secret lair and ever-growing space library
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
This is absolutely true, and also where previous efforts to boost human spaceflight spending have faltered
@FSlazer
Frank Slazer
2 years
@Astro_Pam “We need to develop our Moon to Mars strategy. And the space community knows we want to go - but the public needs to understand why we want to go.”
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
Fascinating reseach - based largely on Warsaw Pact archives - that dispels the myth that Able Archer 83 nearly led to nuclear war
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
While China may have (finally) matched the optical resolution of US spy satellites, I suspect they have a ways to go to match the wide range of other types of space-based ISR capabilities the US has at its disposal
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
So maybe it's time to have that discussion about orbital carrying capacity?
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
5/ It was also a LARGE spacecraft (~ 2,000 kg) so if it was a hypervelocity collision (large debris or ASAT KKV), we'd expect hundreds to thousands of resulting debris
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 months
We space nerds tend to focus far too much on the satellites in orbit and need to pay a lot more attention to the ground infrastructure that makes everything work
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
9/ @planet4589 has lined up the NOTAM with the orbit of Cosmos 1408 to show that it was possible to do the intercept
@planet4589
Jonathan McDowell
3 years
Here is the pass of Kosmos-1408 (red line) northbound over Plesetsk at about 0245 UTC Nov 15. Well aligned with the NOTAM areas (indicated) for the suspected Nudol antisatellite test.
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
2/ A breakup event for Cosmos 1408, a derelict Russian ELINT satellite, was initially reported by @US_SpaceCom in @HoustonChron
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
@MasterActual the number of icons on his dock is giving me conniptions
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
For all you #spacedebris nerds out there like me, @NASA has released the 16th Edition of the History of On-orbit Satellite Fragmentations
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
11/ ADDENDUM - The US has confirmed it was an ASAT test that created thousands of pieces of debris
@thesheetztweetz
Michael Sheetz
3 years
The U.S. State Department confirms and condemns that Russia conducted an anti-satellite weapon (ASAT) test in low Earth orbit. Full statement:
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
3/ Breakup was confirmed by @LeoLabs_Space , and at this point is only a few to couple dozen objects
@LeoLabs_Space
LeoLabs
3 years
With new data from Kiwi Space Radar gathered at 1620 UTC, we confirm detection of multiple objects near expected location of Cosmos 1408. We will share supporting data as we gather it today.
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
I wish the public was able to hear the skepticism actual #AI experts have on its value for national security decisionmaking vs. the optimism/hype expressed by pundits, strategists, & politicians who don't understand the technology
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
Great article by @TimFernholz on why the US govt's reliance on SpaceX isn't really due to the federal govt "receding":
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
New piece from me on how the US can (and should!) become a leader in cleaning up space by modeling a remediation R&D program after NASA's Commercial Cargo and Crew programs:
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
6 months
2\ That would make more sense than a nuclear weapon for attacking satellites, and also has some background as discussed at length in this 2019 article on the Ekipazh program:
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
4/ Cosmos 1408 was a Tselina-D, which doesn't have a known history of spontaneous fragmentation (from fuel or batteries):
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
This is an terrible failure of one of the most important US national security capabilities
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
5 months
1/ So what's the German word for having strong feelings of both sadness of a departure and also excitement about the future? Because whatever that is, it's what I've got right now
@SWFoundation
Secure World Foundation
5 months
Secure World Foundation bids a bittersweet farewell to Dr. @brianweeden as he embarks on a new journey with Aerospace's Center for Space Policy and Strategy. A pivotal figure in space sustainability, his legacy at SWF is unparalleled.
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
A know a lot of space advocates don't like this, but I'll submit if it weren't true there would be a lot less political support for NASA, which may be an even worse outcome
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
Fascinating to see this map of both @SpaceXStarlink satellites (white dots) and where they've rolled out ground stations (red dots)
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
This is going to spark a lot of future discussions and debates on the role (and legal implications) of commercial space companies in armed conflicts
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
8/ Russia has tested the Nudol ten or so times since 2014, although to date not attempted an actual intercept that we know of
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
10 months
This is a phenomena we're only just starting to understand and could become a real problem as we rapidly scale up the number of satellites re-entering the atmosphere
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
9 months
A very good discussion of the protection of hospitals under IHL and when those protections may cease
@Dave_Harden
Dave Harden
9 months
🧵 A few observations regarding Israel’s operation at Al Shifa Hospital. When I was in seat, it was broadly suspected/understood as far back as 2014 that Hamas used the Al Shifa Hospital complex as a command center and base for operations.
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
If only I had a dollar for every pundit and reporter declaring "this is a Sputnik moment!" without actually knowing what happened with Sputnik, I could afford my own hypersonic weapon
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
Over/under on how long before American pundits start calling for us to develop our own balloon spy/bomb/dominance super weapons?
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
In case anyone cares, this is breaking the law
@BradMossEsq
Bradley P. Moss
3 years
It wasn’t just Trump ripping up papers left and right. His staff has seemingly no understanding of records management protocols.
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
Whoa
@bizjetsofwar
Bizjets of War
2 years
The United States (🇺🇸) will reportedly receive Russia's (🇷🇺) Krasukha-4 mobile electronic warfare system, which was recently captured in #Ukraine (🇺🇦). This is one of Russia's most capable Electronic Warfare Systems and potentially an intelligence goldmine.
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
Who had "so many Americans are hospitalized with COVID that we can't launch as many rockets as we want" on their 2021 bingo card?
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
LOL. My wife makes a lot more than I do and we're both perfectly OK with that.
@CNBC
CNBC
7 years
Millennial women are 'worried,' 'ashamed' of out-earning boyfriends and husbands
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
6 months
So I guess today was the wrong day to close out updates on the Russia chapter of this year's Global Counterspace Capabilities report...
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
5/ Today, we know for a fact that this autonomous system works. Between July-Dec 2021, Starlink satellites did 3,300 maneuvers to reduce the probability of a collision with other space objects
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
1/ Last week I had the honor of testifying before @USCC_GOV on China's approaches to international space law and norms. My written testimony and the recording are available below, but I wanted to draw out some key points
@SWFoundation
Secure World Foundation
1 year
Last week, @brianweeden appeared before the @uscc_gov to testify on China's actions in space regarding international norms/laws. The video recording and full written testimony is now available:
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
You hear stories about how awesome the Shinkansen is, but man it’s even better than advertised for intercity trips within Japan
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
If you're a space policy/natsec wonk who doesnt really understand Earth orbit astrodynamics, I can guarantee you don't grok cislunar astrodynamics
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
1\ So finally had a chance to look over the new @FCC proposed ruling on #spacedebris and wanted to share some thoughts
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
This really is going to turn out poorly for China, isn't it
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
6 months
\4 one more thing - I would not be surprised if this was linked to Cosmos 2575, which is a classified Russian satellite launched on Feb 9, which would be just enough time for the IC to do its thing...
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
So now we know who was behind that 300,000 satellite ITU filing from Rwanda
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
10/ So in general, the collision/debris concerns many envisioned for Starlink have not come true, and that's largely due to SpaceX's diligence
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
My timeline is now a combo of devastating ground war in Europe and North Korean missile/nuclear shenanigans and can we please go back to just having a global pandemic to worry about?
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
First commercial on-orbit refueling contract!
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
15/ So bottom line, the worst fears about #megaconstellations mucking up space have not materialized, but that doesn't mean we can stop worrying all together just yet!
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
8/ Data compiled by @planet4589 shows that while the failure rate of Starlinks is somewhat higher than desired, the decision to launch into a very low orbit & then raise to ops altitude means failed sats decay pretty quickly
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
9 months
Space-based jamming is something we've long suspected was going on but had very little public data on. Let's hope this piece changes that conversation:
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
@SciGuySpace Two NASA Administrators in a row that were former politicians and have proven their critics wrong
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
Very interesting analysis of #Cosmos1408 debris suggests that Russia may have tried to minimize the debris created by using a "rear-end" collision but still got it wrong
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
1/ Satellite close approach mini-thread! This is a pretty fascinating set of data on GSSAP close approaches with Chinese satellites (H/T @shell_jim )
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
This is why diversity and inclusion is so important to have in space
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
10 months
@nktpnd who had “Russia needs to rely on North Korea for ballistic missiles” on their bingo card?
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
Want to commend @planet4589 for putting together a comprehensive page on all the planned large satellite constellations - it's my go-to quick reference:
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
Interesting discussion of what appears to be a covert satellite deployment by the US govt on the most recent SpaceX launch:
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
1/ This is a great article by @CaseyDreier explaining why SLS is all about optimizing for political reasons, not technical ones, and why that is important to sustainability
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
Q for @SciGuySpace @thesheetztweetz @BryceSpaceTech or anyone else who might know - what’s the annual revenue from COMMERCIAL customers (i.e. not from govt sales) SpaceX taken in for launch services over the last 5 years?
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
So does this mean HIMARS is using the civil GPS signals instead of M-Code (which is much harder to jam)? Is that part of the downgrade package or is HIMARS old enough to not use M-Code at all?
@ryankakiuchan
Ryan Chan 陳家翹
1 year
Russia has been thwarting US-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System in Ukraine more frequently in recent months, using electronic jammers to throw off its GPS guided targeting system to cause rockets to miss their targets.
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
8 months
Of the 104 successful US space launches last year, 96 were done by SpaceX (92%). But we're not supposed to be concerned about a monopoly...
@planet4589
Jonathan McDowell
8 months
Happy New Year! My 2023 space summary report is at
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
9/ In fact, failed/EOL Starlink satellites have been deorbited much faster than the international standard of 25 years (at least so far), which a fair number of govts don't themselves abide by
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
Excellent round-up of today’s events around the #Cosmos1408 ASAT test from @joroulette , including what the astronauts on the ISS had to do to protect themselves
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
This thread is a depressing look at the "financialization" of local newspapers is destroying a key civic institution
@doctorow
Cory Doctorow NONCONSENSUAL BLUE TICK (AFK)
3 years
Last May, the profitable @chicagotribune was acquired by the notorious vulture firm Alden Global Capital. They suffered waves of downsizing, including a sell-off of the iconic Tribute Building. Today, a skeleton crew puts out the Trib from "a newsroom the size of a Chipotle." 1/
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
1) very few (if any?) of these close approaches would have actually resulted in collisions 2) that Starlink can do this autonomously is an incredible feat of engineering 3) we should still be concerned about risks of deploying massive constellations
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
1 year
7/ On another big measure of #spacesustainability , proper disposal at end-of-life, again SpaceX and Starlink have been doing remarkably well compared to some of the prior expectations
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
6 months
3\ Hopefully we find out more details soon!
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
3 years
This description of the SM-3 is...interesting
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
6 months
This was SUPER close to being a very bad day in space for everyone.
@LeoLabs_Space
LeoLabs
6 months
Too close for comfort. 😳 At ~06:30 UTC today we observed a conjunction at 608 km between two non-maneuverable spacecraft: a derelict Russian satellite and an operational NASA satellite. Miss distance = <20 meters Probability of collision = 3 to 8% at TCA
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@brianweeden
brianweeden
2 years
As @Marco_Langbroek points out, it is likely that #Cosmos2558 is an inspector satellite that wants to get a good look at the NRO's new toy
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