Matthew B @boes_ Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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@udonoharu

@AAhmd52761

@pabloandrade06

@kissesfromlia

Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

AOC talking inflation and the Fed on CNN last night: "If this was an overall inflationary issue, we would see prices going up in relatively equal amounts across the board no matter what the good is"

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

“Is there any economic limit to the size of the debt in relation to national income? There isn’t, is there? ... That’s right, isn’t it? The deficit can be any size, the debt can be any size, provided they don’t cause inflation. Everything else is just talk”—JFK to James Tobin

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

“We are saying farewell again to the back-to-normal life we have been enjoying in the past month. Even if the bars and gyms are not yet closed, I can hardly find a friend who’s willing to join me. I’m now fully mentally prepared to stay at home for the rest of 2020"

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

*U.S. TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS BELOW 1% FOR FIRST TIME

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Matthew B

@boes_

2 years

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the central bank's decision in 2020 to commit to leaving interest rates at zero until the U.S. had reached maximum employment: "I don't think I would do that again"

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Narayana Kocherlakota says we're going to need "something more on the order of $2.5 trillion rather than $1.2 trillion" in government spending to avert the economic crisis now upon us

Trump’s $1.2 Trillion Won’t Do It. Try $2.5 Trillion

The coming slowdown might be so deep that nothing less will do.

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

*FED SAYS SECONDARY MARKET FACILITY TO START BUYING ETF'S TUES.

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

Bernie Sanders the only 2020 candidate to criticize the Fed in a @washingtonpost survey, says he "disagreed with the Fed’s decision to increase rates from 2015-2018" and "raising rates should be done as a last resort, not to fight phantom inflation"

Where 2020 Democrats stand on economic inequality

With the stock market at an all-time high, the debate about wealth accumulation and inequality has become a top issue in the 2020 campaign.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

Employee compensation up 12%. Corporate profits up 37%

Fattest Profits Since 1950 Debunk Wage-Inflation Story of CEOs

In the second year of a pandemic that began by wiping out 20 million jobs, American workers are doing surprisingly well. It’s just that American business is doing even better.

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

1 year

"The consensus forecast for at least a year running has been that we're three months away from a recession, and it just keeps getting pushed back and pushed back and pushed back" ()

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Matthew B

@boes_

8 years

If you watch one lecture on economics make it this @StephanieKelton one: how it works and debate we should be having

But Can We Afford It? Economic Priorities for the Next Administration

The Harvard Law School Forum, the Harvard Law School Tax Law and Financial Regulation Students Association, the Modern Money Network, the American Constituti...

www.youtube.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

Why don’t the 2020 candidates just put out their Treasury secretary and Fed chair shortlists and let the voters debate over that

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Matthew B

@boes_

2 years

U.S. employment-to-population ratio for Black Americans between the ages of 25 and 54 shot up to 77.4% in April, the highest in 22 years

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

"For me, the most amazing statistic of this entire period has been the fact that the second quarter saw the biggest decline ever in real GDP going back at least to 1947, but also the biggest increase ever in real household disposable income," Jan Hatzius says on @BloombergTV

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Jim Bullard agrees with @teasri : U.S. should be treating this like a big three-month vacation (at home) paid for by the federal government

Fed’s Bullard Calls for Declaration of Three-Month Work Break

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said that the U.S. should declare the equivalent of a three-month break for nonessential businesses to fight the spread of the coronavirus.

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

We’ve been reading the new MMT textbook

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

Covered this a bit in the profit margins story: As Charlie Evans pointed out, so long as policy makers continue to see wage growth in excess of productivity growth as an inflation problem, they're effectively "locking in" labor's share of income at current historically-low levels

Jeff Stein

@JStein_WaPo

3 years

Yellen says upward pressure on wages is "to some extent good" but can induce further price increases that need to be monitored

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

“4% would be a nice unemployment rate to get to, but it will take more than that to get to maximum employment,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell says

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Lewis Kimmel on Abraham Lincoln on government debt (h/t @StephanieKelton )

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

*FED SAYS TOTAL ASSETS $6.66T AS OF APRIL 29

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Matthew B

@boes_

1 year

File under what Minsky cycle: US household debt to GDP ticked down in Q1 to the lowest level since 2001. Nonfinancial business debt to GDP fell to the lowest level since 2019. These are two of the Fed's favorite financial stability indicators

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Matthew B

@boes_

6 years

$1.3 trillion of Japanese savings are now controlled by people suffering from Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia

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Matthew B

@boes_

7 years

Really stunning @RobertDPutnam chart at @MinneapolisFed conference: ratio of appearances of words "we" and "I" in American books since 1920

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Stephanie Kelton and Jamie Galbraith versus Todd Buchholz and Otmar Issing on whether we should worry about national deficits

That's Debatable: Stop Worrying About National Deficits

Governments around the world have spent unprecedented sums to combat the economic impact of coronavirus. Is rising debt cause for concern? A new crop of economists – adherents to Modern Monetary...

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 months

BLS data on rents for new tenants out today show they rose just 0.4% over the last four quarters, marking the slowest pace of advance since 2010. The largest and most important component of the consumer price index is likely soon to follow them lower

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

Pretty much sums up Jackson Hole 2019

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

"The connection between monetary aggregates and either growth or inflation was very strong for a long, long time, which ended about 40 years ago"—Fed Chair Jerome Powell to a congressman reading passages from Milton Friedman's "Free to Choose"

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

"The Fed is basically telling us that there is no program too big that we could authorize. We cannot effectively spend enough right now"— @AOC last night on MSNBC

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Amazing. Hospitals around the country are trying desperately to contain the pandemic and meanwhile their borrowing costs are surging because investors are dumping municipal debt as markets melt down. This is exactly why people are talking about muni QE

Hospitals, Cities Hit by Surging Interest Rates in 2008 Echo

On Wednesday, as a hospital system in Memphis, Tennessee, was preparing for how to combat the spreading coronavirus, the havoc the pandemic was causing on Wall Street rippled down with its own...

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

MMT seems like it bothers a lot of economists because it implicitly demands they show their work. Once the convo moves past budget constraints, next excuse is inflation constraints, and economists may not have a good framework for evaluating inflation impact of specific proposals

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Matthew B

@boes_

11 months

The extraordinary wage growth premium enjoyed by Americans who switched jobs during the pandemic has now completely vanished, according to the latest monthly Atlanta Fed numbers out today ()

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

Remember when all of those economists wrote the Fed a letter in 2010 warning that QE would cause runaway inflation, and then when Bloomberg followed up with them in 2014 they said they weren’t wrong?

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Matthew B

@boes_

6 years

Remarkable from @neelkashkari : Fed officials are still scarred more by the high inflation of the 1970s than the 2008 financial crisis, "that is persuading us more than anything else"

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

For anyone still unclear on the nature of the gatekeeping role the Fed and other central banks play in society

Bharat Ramamurti

@BharatRamamurti

4 years

A Republican witness testified today that federal aid to states wouldn’t produce much economic growth. This is what happened next.

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

"The connection between low interest rates and asset values is probably something that's not as tight as people think," Fed Chair Jerome Powell says

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

Monetary policy is a public-private partnership: Fed sets short rates, markets set long rates. That's why the Fed has to spell out its reaction function with regard to metrics like Black unemployment if it wants to achieve its new inclusive employment goal

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Citi economists just published a 104-page report (linked in article) calculating elimination of racial disparities in the U.S. economy would add $5 trillion to GDP. The report looks at solutions like a federal job guarantee, baby bonds, postal banking etc.

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 months

Taylor rule model says the Fed’s benchmark interest rate is more than a percentage point too high after today’s inflation data

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

"If you can replace 100% of the lost income in a crisis like this, why don’t we replace 100% of people’s lost income in every cyclical downturn?" The pandemic response may have provided a new template for economic policy making @JWMason1

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Matthew B

@boes_

6 years

Bloomberg's tickers for probability of Fed rate hikes in June, September and December (based on fed funds futures) have all gone negative following today's market sell-off, and the one-month OIS rate one year forward is now below spot one-month OIS for the first time in six years

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Matthew B

@boes_

6 years

Seems legit

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Matthew B

@boes_

2 years

TIL the unemployment rate when Paul Volcker took office in Aug. 1979 was 6%, and it didn’t come back down to that level again — excepting the 5.9% readings in Sept. and Nov. 1979 — until the month he left office, in Aug. 1987

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

Since Feb: 2020, through Nov. 2021: U.S. average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers +10.2%, consumer price index +7.7%

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

Why is "free money" or "cheap money" or "easy money" synonymous with low interest rates instead of high interest rates? Doesn't the return to doing nothing (in the form of coupon payments to holders of risk-free assets) rise as interest rates go higher?

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

The big story for me today is the Fed no longer expects it will be appropriate to raise interest rates above their estimate of the so-called neutral level in order to explicitly slow down the economy. They had been advocating that since September 2017

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

Yellen’s dashboard included unemployment, wage growth, participation. Powell’s adds Black unemployment, bottom-quartile wage growth, non-college participation. Full employment means “businesses compete for workers at every part of the income distribution”

Powell’s Dashboard Shows How Far U.S. Economy Has to Go on Jobs

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Full employment? "More than four in 10 recent graduates are working in jobs that don’t usually require a college degree, the @NewYorkFed says. And roughly one in eight is working in a field where typical pay is around $25,000 a year or less"

Bloomberg Markets

@markets

4 years

Even in today’s hot jobs market, millions of Americans are seeing little return from their expensive college degrees

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Matthew B

@boes_

2 years

@TheStalwart because most of the drivers of inflation are acyclical, and monetary policy has an indeterminate effect on the big one that isn't (rent)

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

"If we can’t flatten the curve, then that is going to affect farmers and farm laborers — and then we have to make choices about which crops we harvest and which ones we don’t. We hope no one gets sick. But I would expect some of us are going to"

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

U.S. consumer price index excluding food and energy items has now registered declines for three straight months, marking the first such stretch on record in data going back to 1957

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

"The extra $600 a week in jobless benefits and its expanded eligibility were key to shoring up the savings of Black families. Altogether, the CARES Act meant almost all families, Black and White, had enough to cover six months of expenses"— @Claudia_Sahm

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

"That's a very wrong-minded theory because that's how you get hyperinflation"—Janet Yellen on MMT

Yellen Says She’s ‘Not a Fan of MMT’ as List of Detractors Grows

Former Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen said she’s not a fan of modern monetary theory, saying its proponents are “confused” about what can fuel inflation in the economy.

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

It sounds like sticky wages are not so sticky this time around as pay cuts become more widespread. Probably won’t be helpful for labor’s share nor for aggregate demand coming out of the other side of this, per @JWMason1 et al.

Salaries Get Chopped for Many Americans Who Manage to Keep Jobs

Companies across the U.S. are cutting salaries as they fight to survive the coronavirus, upending a key assumption in modern economics and raising another hurdle to rapid recovery.The hard numbers...

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

1.32% yield on 10-year Treasuries. 3.29% wage growth. That kind of thing never happens

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

State and local governments across the U.S. have laid off 1.6 million employees over the last two months and will have to let go of 1.5 million more if Congress doesn't step in. The cuts are falling disproportionately on black Americans and women

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

U.S. rental inflation fell below 2% on a year-over-year basis in February for the first time since 2011, according to the CPI. In data going back to 1982, it's only ever been lower in the aftermath of the Great Recession and for two months in the early 1990s

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

John Williams to reporters on inflation downside risks: "Supply and demand will adjust over time. That time might be a couple years ... But if that happens quicker than you’d expect, then those price increases that pushed inflation up will actually pull inflation down next year"

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

U.S. core CPI inflation excluding shelter down for a third straight month in September on a year-over-year basis

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

Is the federal job guarantee the most popular policy proposal in America? "93% of respondents thought this was a good idea, including 87% of Republicans"

Should the Feds Guarantee You a Job? (Published 2021)

Not long ago, the question was rarely asked. Now, politicians and economists of various stripes are willing to consider it.

www.nytimes.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

"New research by Bloomberg Economics reckons 30% of U.S. job losses from February to May are the result of a reallocation shock. The analysis ... suggests the labor market will initially recover swiftly, but then level off with millions still unemployed"

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Matthew B

@boes_

6 years

Alan Greenspan, pointing to Sweden, says the real problem with U.S. welfare programs is just the refusal to fund them: "It's not the deficits, it's the issue of not funding increased expenditures"

Alan Greenspan Says Look to Sweden to Solve U.S. Entitlement Problem

The U.S. could follow Sweden’s example to solve its problems with the welfare state, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said.

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

7 years

"So in order to address wealth inequality, it’s important to focus on land. Even after the rise of the modern corporate economy, unequal ownership of the most basic and ancient asset of them all is still creating big divisions in our society"— @Noahpinion

Land Is Underrated as a Source of Wealth

In the long term, housing does about as well as stocks. It's also a major driver of inequality.

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

2 years

A lot of Wall Street economists are looking at the Fed’s 2022 projection for core PCE and thinking there’s no way it could have incorporated Tuesday’s CPI report because if it did, then it would imply a big pop in core inflation in December

Fed’s High Inflation Forecast Baffles Wall Street After Soft CPI

The Federal Reserve’s updated economic projections this week appeared to incorporate an assumption that raised eyebrows: inflation would prove resurgent at the end of this year.

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

2 years

"The lack of rain is weighing on American farmers’ minds, too...If the rains don’t come by the fourth of July, he says, he won’t even bother putting down additional fertilizer. Too expensive to waste"—great read on the calculus of soaring fertilizer prices

Corn Is Out, Soy Is In on U.S. Farms Rocked by Soaring Costs

Two crops dominate U.S. farming: corn and soybeans. The former requires massive amounts of fertilizer. The latter requires very little.

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

The Fed is buying $300MM of ETFs per day

Fed Has Purchased $1.8 Billion of Corporate-Bond ETFs So Far

Federal Reserve purchases of exchanged-traded funds invested in corporate debt totaled $1.8 billion in the first six days of the program, according to data published Thursday.

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Scenes in the Hamptons. Peeps scrambling to take cash out of ATMs for whatever reason and finding out there's a $10k withdrawal limit

New Yorker Anxiety in Hamptons Leads to Hard Cash Demands

Ever since New York’s elite starting fleeing the city for the Hamptons, there have been unusually large orders for food and wine. And for cash apparently.

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

6 years

It sure seems like the story is changing to one where wage growth causes productivity growth instead of the other way around

Robots or Job Training: Manufacturers Grapple With How to Improve Their Economic Fortunes (Publis...

With unemployment low and wages creeping up, companies have an incentive to become more efficient — an exercise that tends to drive economic progress.

www.nytimes.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

"What happened? The answer can almost, if not quite, be summed up in a single word: China"—Jamie Galbraith on the demise of the Phillips curve

China Is Missing from the Great Inflation Debate | by James K. Galbraith - Project Syndicate

James K. Galbraith thinks economists who worry about excessive fiscal stimulus and "overheating" need to update their models.

www.project-syndicate.org

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

"More than 100 million Americans reported feeling down, depressed or hopeless over the past week, with those between 18 and 29 -- along with people who’d lost jobs or were living alone -- the most likely to express those emotions"

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Matthew B

@boes_

2 years

Not all demand shocks are cyclical: San Francisco Fed economists estimate "the shift to remote work may account for more than half of overall house price increases and similar increases in rents" versus pre-pandemic

Remote Work Drove Over 60% of House-Price Surge, Fed Study Finds

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

The April 1 rent strike is underway: "The court system is just going to get flooded with a million of these disputes between tenants and landlords. If the government doesn’t step in in any form or fashion, it could get ugly. They need to respond quickly"

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 months

The incredible run for U.S. corporate profits continues: Margins for nonfinancial firms widened again in the fourth quarter, remaining well above 1951-2019 levels ()

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Matthew B

@boes_

2 years

The Fed is now putting heavy emphasis on wages as the root of the inflation problem. But Powell’s services basket is only adding 1.3 extra ppts to core inflation versus pre-pandemic, when core was 1.6%, which means it’s still consistent with sub-3% core ()

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

"I don't think the guy in the taco truck downstairs is going to set a higher price for tacos because the Fed says it’s aiming for 50 basis points higher inflation"—Jeremy Stein

Fed Risks Stoking Financial Bubble in Drive to Lift Inflation

The Federal Reserve risks stoking the same sort of asset bubbles that Chairman Jerome Powell has linked to the last two recessions with its new-found eagerness to fan inflation.

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

NYC rental inflation goes negative for the first time since 1958, or maybe 1934

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Jay Powell, answering final question during this historic tele-press conference, says "we're prepared to..." and then the feed cuts out

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

It's only encroaching on Fed independence when the administration tries to jawbone interest rates lower, right?

Saleha Mohsin

@SalehaMohsin

3 years

Yellen, speaking at an event recorded *yesterday* says: "It may be that interest rates will have to rise a little bit to make sure our economy doesn't overheat''

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

For a long time full employment was just a number, but now inflation is low and Fed is gathering input from the community on “what full employment means” as part of its strategy review. Rich Clarida has an alternative that sounds more like conflict theory

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Matthew B

@boes_

7 years

46% of working Americans were employed in industries where average hourly earnings growth didn't keep up with inflation over the past year

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Instead of just giving people money and/or deferring their payment obligations

Bloomberg Politics

@bpolitics

4 years

Lawmakers are making it easier for Americans to draw on their 401(k)s and other retirement accounts

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Matthew B

@boes_

2 years

Jamie Galbraith on the "old instinct of the central bank to ensure that there is a long queue of people at the gate" ()

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Matthew B

@boes_

6 years

Year of the Hawkish Fed: Jay Powell finally inverts the yield curve in the U.S. overnight index swap market

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

Alan Greenspan on MMT, in response to a question from @mckonomy on @BloombergTV : "You'd have to shut down your foreign exchange markets. How do you exchange? People will be trying to fly out of your currency, and if there's no vehicle in which they can do it, it doesn't happen"

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Mass incarceration and jobs programs are just different forms of government intervention in labor markets

Ex-Cons Confront Labor Market That’s Likely to Leave Them Behind

Eric Hughie felt lucky to land a job making eyeglasses in January. Then his job vanished, along with 40 million others, as the coronavirus tore through America.

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

8 years

And a new milestone: nonstore retailers accounted for more than 10% of total U.S. retail sales in April and May

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

*FED WILL BEGIN BUYING BROAD PORTFOLIO OF U.S. CORPORATE BONDS

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

When's the last time forecasters tipped the Dem candidate as a better prospect for the economy? Ever?

Biden’s Spending to Drive Faster U.S. Recovery, Economists Say

Joe Biden’s plans to boost government spending would help the U.S. economy bounce back faster from the coronavirus slump if the Democratic challenger beats President Donald Trump in November’s...

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

6 years

Eye-opening @JWMason1 / @arjun_jayadev paper: "The rise in household leverage since the early 1980s is entirely attributable to higher interest rates, lower inflation, and lower income growth, in that order; household borrowing plays no role" (h/t @teasri )

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

HSBC predicts China's middle class will grow in the next four years by more than 45% to over 500 million, helping the country avoid the "middle-income trap"

China Will More Than Double Millionaires by 2025: HSBC

China will more than double the number of millionaires in the next five years and boost the size of the middle class by almost half, spurring consumption in the economy, according to HSBC Holdings...

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

7 years

U.S. core inflation excluding shelter now within shouting distance of a record low

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Matthew B

@boes_

3 years

34% of core CPI components increased at a rate faster than 2% year over year in June, the least since September 2019

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

"By using decimal points instead of commas, the report would fail to stoke the right emotional response from our citizenry. To dramatize the numbers, [Enzi] suggested that the CBO be required to write the numbers out in long form"—this @StephanieKelton story in The Deficit Myth

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Matthew B

@boes_

6 years

Ever wonder how Keynes felt about using interest rates to manage business cycles but didn't make it to chapter 22 of the General Theory?

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Matthew B

@boes_

5 years

e.g. if you’re going to argue against M4A or GND or free college on ostensibly value-free, macroeconomic grounds, then why isn’t the burden of proof on you to demonstrate inflationary consequences? And many can only resort to an increasingly-embattled natural rate hypothesis

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Matthew B

@boes_

7 years

2000-2017 Phillips curve is literally so flat that the r-squared is 0 out to three decimal places

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Matthew B

@boes_

6 years

Probability of a Fed rate hike in March back up to 0% on strong jobs report

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Thinking about this exchange between @RashidaTlaib and Jay Powell at the last Humphrey-Hawkins hearings in February now

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

"The Federal Reserve bought $451 million of notes sold by New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, making the beleaguered transit agency the second to borrow from the central bank’s $500 billion lending program for states and cities"

New York’s MTA Becomes Second to Tap Fed as Banks Demand Higher Yields

The Federal Reserve bought $451 million of notes sold by New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, making the beleaguered transit agency the second to borrow from the central bank’s $500...

www.bloomberg.com

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

Abe says Japan will roll out interest-free loans for small- and medium-size companies that are experiencing a sharp drop in revenue due to the coronavirus outbreak

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Matthew B

@boes_

4 years

"Basically, if you want to restore a broad-based, middle-class economy, you have to make sure that the tax system is conducive to that. It was for a period in the 20th century. It is certainly not now"—Jamie Galbraith on @BloombergTV

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