I had the privilege to speak with the CEO of
@Vinted
on
@twentyminutevc
today with
@HarryStebbings
. Proud to serve on the board on behalf of
@lightspeedvp
.
How do you build a cross boarder consumer marketplace in Eurozone? Listen up for the 🔑.
👇👇
Grad student: “So, what’s your thesis on?”
Katie Bouman: “I am writing an algorithm that will construct the first ever image of the black hole at the center of our galaxy, directly confirming 100 years of physics theory.”
Grad student: “Oh.” 🤯
3 years ago MIT grad student Katie Bouman led the creation of a new algorithm to produce the first-ever image of a black hole.
Today, that image was released.
More info:
2016 story:
#EHTblackhole
#EventHorizonTelescope
It’s 2019, and the tools to run your own personal p&l, balance sheet, and cash flow statement are still utter 💩.
Who is solving this problem? Please don’t say Mint.
@harris
@jmelaskyriazi
My fav deck making cheat code is: "first draft is just the slide titles, nothing else. Don't proceed until that tells the story."
For those who think we'll have the virus under control in the near term, consider that those who have *much* more information at their fingertips are making moves like this.
~10 years ago, I cold called a GP at a top firm to get advice on breaking into VC. I ran into him this week for the 1st time in person & thanked him for taking time. He told me he did the same thing back in 1995! Amazing how Silicon Valley pays it forward across generations.
TikTok is also rumored to have spent $1b in the US advertising on the other platforms, and its parent acquired Musically. So not all this growth is “organic” like the others.
Amazon/Whole Foods is coming after La Croix with private label sparkling water in a can. Prime members buy one get one free. Endcap at checkout. Valuable real estate in store!
It took 4.5 years and ~$1bn raised for OpenAI to launch GPT-3, which was their first PMF product.
That breaks every “rule” in the startup world, around mvp and being capital light pre-pmf.
Goes to show you that you have to define your own rules to get outsized success.
With pen and paper, ~100 years ago Einstein wrote the equations of general relativity that predicted the existence of black holes. How outlandish must they have sounded then? Can you imagine the pressure he must have faced to throw the whole thing out on that basis?
Due diligence tip:
Create a slide that defines all the financial terms in your model and data room. You will avoid a *lot* of confusion across multiple investors during the process if you can point them to something written down that explains all your bespoke terminology.
Two predictions based on
@billieeilish
’s meteoric rise:
1.) Authenticity is becoming cooler than swagger.
2.) Homeschooling is going to get way more popular.
Back in 2018,
@lightspeedvp
published a simple e-commerce model. We're delighted that so many find it useful. We've even seen it in some of your data rooms! 😉
This week, we updated the post with a new, cleaner version submitted by
@reichardn
. Enjoy! 🙏
I am delighted to announce
@Lightspeedvp
's lead investment in
@Faire_wholesale
, which raised $100M in the last quarter to build the leading platform connecting the best brands to independent retailers. Congrats to
@MaxRhodesOK
& team!
Read this for more:
I was asked for my favorite books on history of retail/e-commerce. A few came to mind:
1. Shoe Dog, Phil Knight
2. The Everything Store, Brad Stone
3. Alibaba, Duncan Clark
4. Delivering Happiness, Tony Hsieh
Any others? cc
@kirstenagreen
@jeremysliew
@rabois
@Alfred_Lin
Today
@faire_wholesale
announced a $170M round led by
@sequoia
, with strong support from us at
@lightspeedvp
.
During a challenging year, the resilience of Faire's customers has been inspiring. Now Faire has even more resources to support them.
My monthly reminder to direct your aggression at $FB instead to $EFX, which *actually* sells your data for profit, does zilch to protect it, and then charges you money for the "privilege" of freezing your account.
The. Worst. 🤬
😯😯😯
Fascinating look behind the curtain at Mark Zuckerberg’s strategic mind. He is thinking 10 years ahead of most tech leaders and is willing to put billions behind that vision. Lots of great nuggets here.
👇👇👇
I rarely do this — what are your favorite books that opened your mind to a new way of thinking in the last decade? Fiction or non. Looking to stay away from typical tech cult following books. Suggestions?
1./ Today
@Outschool
announced a $45M Series B investment from
@LightspeedVP
, and I am joining the board.
@mercebent
and I wrote about the investment here, and told some stories about teachers who made a difference in our lives.
1/ Today
@Faire_Wholesale
announced its $400M Series G at a $12.4B valuation, co-led by Durable, D1, and Dragoneer.
@LightspeedVP
is proud to invest again for the 6th (!) time since our original 2018 investment.
A little 🧵 below on this milestone:
Deep thought: One reason capital has avoided the SMB sector historically is that it's incredibly hard to research due to fragmentation and informality.
As more tech co's penetrate the SMB market, I'm excited to see their customer data. It will reveal huge market opportunities.
I just realized that the “6 ft apart” signs around SF have a critical design flaw. If the diagonal is 6 ft, then isn’t the side 6/sqrt(2) ft? How did I not see this before?! 😝🤓
Q: why so few scaled marketplace businesses, compared to other categories like ecomm, SaaS, etc?
A: complexity! So hard to tune economics of growth flywheel, customer acqusiton, incentives, margin — across multiple geos & platform participants — without burning all your cash. 🔥
1/ Today
@Outschool
is announcing a $75M Series C round, co-led by Tiger and Coatue. 📈
@LightspeedVP
increased our investment in this round and is excited to continue to support the company since leading its Series B in 2020.
It should be illegal for a theme park to open in a pandemic hotspot. How are Bob Iger and the $DIS board sleeping at night? When those travelers return home, it’s going to light up every state in the nation. So irresponsible. 🤬
Disney World parks in Florida reopened Saturday nearly 4 months after they shutdown due to the pandemic.
Florida reported 11,433 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, and 435 more hospitalizations — the state's largest single-day increase in hospitalizations.
Pre-panel conference calls are a waste of time.
Better alternative? Share the agenda in a Google Doc and have the panelists annotate/comment on the questions until the agenda is fully fleshed out. Much more effective!
1/ I am excited to announce
@LightspeedVP
is leading the $65M Series C of
@AllDayKitchens
, & I am joining the board.
Delivery will be 25% of restaurant sales by 2025, but the back-end is broken. ADK has built the most scalable solution for kitchen infra.
Offline to online shift is really incredible. Recent spend data implies Ecom has risen from 15% to close to 30% of spend. That is 15 points in a $6T category 🧐🤯
I know $EBAY intended for this slide to show its scale vs. competitors, but my read is that their competitors are very effectively chipping away at a horizontal platform by optimizing for the vertical, with fashion as a core use case: $ZAL.DE, $ETSY, $TDUP, StockX/GOAT, etc.
@zebulgar
You know my metallurgy class at MIT went into this conspiracy theory. We did the calc.
It turns out you don't need to melt steel to lower its Youngs Modulus (aka Strength) enough that it buckles under the weight of a bunch of cement floors. Solid, but hot steel is plenty weak.
Today
@lightspeedvp
announces our 2nd LATAM investment -- Frubana! 🥑🍉🥭🍌
We're proud partner w/ founder Fabián Gómez, as well as
@Hanstung
at
@GGVCapital
,
@Carlodapuzzo
at Monashees, & more to build the "everything store" for restaurants in LATAM. 👩🍳
Bullish on podcast ads (from Liontree):
"Podcast ads have 90% completion rates and listeners are more receptive especially when ads are read by the host, integrated into the content, and the ad load is light; Podcast CPMs this year are ~$25."
People who read a lot (say 1+ book a month): where do you find the time? How many hours per day do you spend reading? What habits have you built to support this activity?
1/ I'm thrilled to announce our Series B investment in
@BankonFound
-- a modern financial platform for self-employed workers -- alongside
@rabois
@foundersfund
&
@Alfred_Lin
@sequoia
, as well as some amazing angels from fintech/marketplace ecosystem.
Tl;dr: China is building a 79 runway, 1m sq ft airport outside Beijing for less than it costs to add a 3rd runway to Heathrow. 🤯
Building China’s $12BN Mega Airport | The B1M via
@YouTube
1/ Today
@thredUP
celebrates a milestone over a decade in the making -- its IPO as $TDUP. 🙌
To mark the occasion, I want to share my recollections of the company’s early days from my time at
@HighlandCapital
, as well as some highlights from its S-1.
Once in a blue moon, an iconic character comes along and becomes part of popular culture.
At
@LightspeedVP
, we are delighted to back
@AWA_Studios
, which is building the next great character universe from scratch, by partnering with world class creators.
This week in
@firehosevc
I wrote about the concept of operating leverage and how it functions in different type of marketplaces. ⚖️
👗 Product-oriented, e.g. $TDUP
🙋 Service-oriented, e.g. $FVRR
Thanks to
@lennysan
for the proof-read. Enjoy below! 👇👇
Is there an app that tracks and triggers stocks on moving fundamentals relative to stock price, not just stock price itself?
e.g. FCF yield, EV/FCF, etc.
I had a fun convo w/ the owner of a small biz in Healdsburg today who puts 50%+ of her wholesale spend on
@faire_wholesale
. She now has a $75k credit limit with net 60 payment terms. Faire has completely changed the velocity of her business, which is up 40% over *2019* levels! 🙌
At
#UpfrontSummit
,
@softbank
vision fund partners say one of their criteria is a business that can "absorb our capital." Turning the capital efficiency criterion that most VCs look for on its head.
This slide shows the remarkable re-correlation of value to growth + profitability (aka "Rule of 40"), w/ R_sq = 0.52
More justification for startups to focus on profitable unit economics and rational headcount if they want to access capital markets in the next year.
SaaS founder: "How many sales reps should I hire to hit my ARR targets?" 🤔
My partner
@natluu
: "I have a model for that." 🤩
Introducing the
@LightspeedVP
SaaS operating model. Please share far and wide for the benefit of all! 💪
“Next year, Faire plans to launch a credit card. Rhodes says he aspires to evolve the company into an “operating system” for wholesale, with tools like a CRM for brands, and inventory management for retailers.”
Go
@faire_wholesale
! 🙌
Great piece on
@MaxRhodesOK
and
@faire_wholesale
in
@Forbes
today. The article notes that 100% of its engineers are based in Waterloo. No doubt we will see more dual, or maybe even triple, HQ'd companies in the coming years across all sectors of tech.
In my second post on gaps in consumer markets, I delved into eSports. Altogether, it’s the second most watched US sport behind 🏈, but still monetizes less than 1/10th per fan compared to the NFL. Solving that conundrum will unlock a ton of value!
Funny pick me up:
All the K-12 students that now have online classes are giving Zoom 1-star reviews on the App Store
Poor Zoom going to have WebEx level NPS after this is over
Can only imagine Zoom’s customer support team reaching out to kids to resolve their issues 😂
Faire is now fully available in Canada! 🍁
Excited for our neighbors up north to get access to products from 7,000 of the world's best independent brands and makers. Great execution by the
@faire_wholesale
team! 🙌
Today
@Faire_Wholesale
is announcing its $150m Series D, led by our friends & co-investors at
@FoundersFund
.
@LightspeedVP
previously led Faire's Series B a year ago and significantly increased our investment in this round. 📈
Read more below! 🙌
A 2 bd home cost $1,092 mail order through Sears in the early 1900's! That's about $55K today. USA has plenty of regions where land is affordable enough to make this a viable solution.
Is there a startup working on mail order homes that are relatively easy to install?
Wow! That’s brazen.
Onavo is the VPN app Facebook purchased. Onavo (now FB Protect) tracks which apps are on your device and how they are performing. It’s one signal that informs which startups to buy, or which features to mimic.
No way users are aware of this. 🤬
@BloombergEric
Problems with Mint:
* 10 year old, clunky interface with stoggy workflow.
* Categorization frequently fails, especially when strings change slightly.
* Not “3 statement”
* No auto budgeting/smart projections
* Constantly hawking ad partner products
Sales is the most accessible onramp into the tech industry. So
@shaanh
started
@flockjayschool
-- an online academy/community to train & support the next gen of sales leaders. 💪
@lightspeedvp
is proud to lead your seed round! 🙌
Read more:
The next generation of online marketplaces (e.g.
@faire_wholesale
) will absorb and centralize risk on behalf of users, & get paid well to do so.
I wrote about this trend & compared $ebay / $lyft to illustrate in the below post from
@firehosevc
. Enjoy!
1/ This week's
@firehosevc
dives into one of my favorite topics: cash flow. 💰
Nearly every successful digital commerce startup I’ve encountered has an interesting spin on the cash flow dynamics of its industry. 💪
4% of Levi's revs is DTC. That's a long hill to climb. To put in context, $NKE does 30% of sales in direct-to-consumer today on $38B in LTM revenues. Major priority for years.
News: as it prepares for an IPO,
@LeviStraussCo
cites its $223 million in DTC revenue in 2018 (out of a total $5.6 billion in sales). They’ve signaled prioritizing a shift from wholesale to DTC distribution.
No question that both Instagram and YouTube go down as two of the best acquisitions of all time. However, I would be interested to know how much cash was invested in both *post* acquisition to get to those revenue numbers. Certainly more than $1B price tag.
Instagram now accounts for a quarter of Facebook's revenues, bringing in ~$20B in revenue in 2019.
That's more than YouTube which is at ~$18B ($15B in ads + $3B in subscriptions).
Both would be worth over $100B each standalone and were purchased for $1B and $1.6B respectively.
It feels crazy out there.
Punks, Tiger, Time Crystals, Space Billionaires, Mirror Image DNA Polymerase, Record VC Funding.
But craziness compounds. What if this is just the beginning?
Let's borrow some ideas from
@waitbutwhy
to find out.
After a month-long hiatus,
@firehosevc
returns triumphantly tomorrow morning. 🥳
🛍️ $SHOP releases a consumer app
🍫 Mixed bag for CPGs.
🎮 Best/worst of times for eSports
🚶♀️ Ending shelter-in-place
😷 Modeling an epidemic
...and more. 👏
Sign up here:
I finally took a
@Waymo
today, thanks to
@f_fatemi21
’s urging, and we didn’t die or get carsick. Amazing how quickly it felt normal, and we forgot there was no driver. Said “thank you” instinctively on the way out.
Important subtext: digitally native brands and retailers bring sophisticated approaches to measuring unit economics into offline channels. Huge competitive advantage over incumbents. Do you think Brooks Brothers understands its CAC or LTV deeply? Probably not.
CEO of custom suit maker Indochino gives an interview to TheInformation on why he's opening up stores. Lower CAC / higher AOVs / higher customer LTVs. Seems like a trend.