Foreign Minister of Russia, 1990-1996. Member of the State Duma till 2000; then businessman, speaker. Author: The Firebird (memoir), The Caligula Curse (novel).
I call on all Russian diplomats to resign in protest.
Уважаемые дипломаты России, вы профессионалы а не дешёвые пропагандисты. Когда я работал в МИДе, я гордился своими коллегами. Сейчас просто нельзя поддерживать кровавую братоубийственную войну в Украине.
Lots of discussions about the threat of nuclear war from the Kremlin and whether Putin is rational. I share my thoughts in this thread.
To frame: I do not believe Russia would use nuclear weapons and I believe Putin is a rational actor.
Lavrov, rightfully sanctioned by the US and EU today, was my deputy in the 90s. Used to have my back.
Today, I would watch my back if he was behind me.
The ultimate conclusion here is that the West should not agree to any unilateral concessions or limit its support of Ukraine too much for the fear of nuclear war.
2. Russian military. The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military
If you believe all three of the above to be true and your goal is to restore the glory of the Russian Empire (whatever that means), then it is perfectly rational to invade Ukraine.
He miscalculated on all three, but that doesn’t make him insane. Simply wrong and immoral.
3. The West. The Russian ruling elite believed its own propaganda that Pres. Biden is mentally inept. They also thought the EU was weak because of how toothless their sanctions were in 2014. And then the U.S. botched its withdrawal from Afghanistan, solidifying this narrative.
The good news from the Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul is not that Putin is suddenly acting in good faith, but that heroic Ukrainian resistance is making him look for off-ramps and diplomatic disguise.
A few important lessons in this thread
I will take it a step further. The threat of nuclear war is another example of his rationality. The Kremlin knows it can try to extract concessions, whether from Ukraine or the West, by saber-rattling its last remaining card in the deck: nuclear weapons.
So, in my opinion, he is rational. Given that he is rational, I strongly believe he will not intentionally use nuclear weapons against the West. I say intentionally because indiscriminate shelling near a nuclear power plant can cause an unintentional nuclear disaster in Ukraine.
First of all, I want to examine where the questioning of Putin’s rationality started. I think it began because most people, particularly in the West, view his decision to invade Ukraine as utterly irrational. I disagree. It’s horrific, but not irrational.
1. Ukraine’s condition. Putin spent the last 20 years believing that Ukraine is not a real nation and, at best, should be a satellite state. Maidan ended any hope of keeping Ukraine independent and pro-Kremlin. He thought the West was behind it.
If Ukraine’s government cannot be kept independent and pro-Kremlin covertly, as he likely concluded, then he will overtly force it to be. He also started to believe his own propagandists that Ukraine is run by a Nazi-Bandera junta. Perfect pretext to “de-Nazify” Ukraine.
To understand why the invasion was rational for Putin, we have to step into his shoes. Three beliefs came together at the same time in his calculus:
1. Ukraine’s condition as a country
2. Russian military’s condition
3. The West’s geopolitical condition
The moment dozens of diplomats from the European Union and United States walked out of a speech by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during the annual U.N. Human Rights Council session, nearly a week since Moscow unleashed its war on Ukraine
Last week, I read critiques of my position on Putin’s rationality and possibility of nuclear war. Many are not realist enough about the nuclear threat or the right response.
I argue in this thread that if we “blink” on Putin’s nuclear threat, we will increase the risk of WWIII.
Russian defense minister is worried about long range rockets and artillery. That’s it! Give Ukraine more and end the war early, cheaper and better for everyone
@POTUS
4.
@POTUS
must not apologize nor walk back his strong language in Warsaw. This can be as good as Reagan's Berlin speech if it is backed up with appropriate military measures, such as anti-air systems and other weapons Zelensky is asking for.
I’m not calling for a No Fly Zone or any specific military move in Ukraine. The feasibility and effectiveness of these options is beyond my expertise. But, I am calling out political statements that give away “bargaining power” by ruling out options for fear of nuclear war.
I've known Michael
@McFaul
since 1990 and I can assure you he is not Russophobic. He respects the Russian people no less than I do. But neither of us accepts the current regime and its anti-Russian policies.
@POTUS
5. In the beginning of the war, Putin bet on weakness of Ukraine and the West. Mocked any possibility of negotiations. He will try this again, especially if the West gets cold feet on military supplies or reduces sanctions over a flimsy ceasefire deal.
For Putin and his team of ex-KGB officers, the Cold War never ended. The collapse of the USSR was just one lost battle in an ongoing contest. They probe the West with limited wars (Georgia), interventions (Syria), cyberwar (Estonia) and disinformation.
The West willingly provided evidence of its effectiveness. The shameful game of hot potato around Polish MiGs started after Putin’s nuclear threat. Now the Kremlin wants to see what else they can stop with nuclear blackmail: they called Western arms convoys “legitimate targets”.
The feeble responses to their actions in Crimea, Donbas, and Syria, convinced the Kremlin that the US and the West became decadent and lost the will to resist after declaring the post-Cold War era.
2. Putin’s regime understands the language of strength and only strength. Met with defeat near Kyiv, Putin now resorts to diplomatic and conventional military maneuvering (not to tactical nukes).
Two opposing justifications are implied for not defeating Russia in Ukraine. It is too strong, a superpower that will use nuclear weapons. It is too weak, an almost failed state that will fall into chaos. Thread.
If rewarded in Ukraine, Putin will attack the NATO Baltic states, convinced of NATO's impotence and cowardice, long before 🇺🇦 could receive any guarantees from NATO. His target is not part or even all of 🇺🇦, but rather the humiliation and discrediting of the US and NATO.
What if during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Khrushchev believed that JFK wanted to avoid the risk of nuclear war more than he did?
As a result of JFK’s brinksmanship in the Cuban Crisis, WWIII was avoided. The balance of fear worked based on American resolve.
Мария Певчих, следуя герою Алексею Навальному, фильмом Предатели сказала правду, которая нам колет глаза.
Дело не в деталях, не в том, что выгодно оппозиции, не в контексте 90х или России, а в личном выборе каждого. Тогда, сегодня и завтра.
Granted, the united response to the invasion caught them off guard. And the war is not going according to plan, with Western munitions greatly assisting the Ukrainians.
Putin doesn’t like to be on the back foot, so now they’re checking if the threat of nuclear war is effective.
Putin declared that the economic sanctions were “an act of war.” Can he force the West to ease sanctions with the specter of nuclear war? I don’t see why he wouldn’t try.
The Kremlin says Russia has sent a delegation to Belarus and is prepared to start peace negotiations with Ukraine there.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, tells RIA Novosti: “Russia is already ready for talks in Gomel. Now Moscow is waiting for the Ukrainians.”
Nuclear deterrence is based on the belief that any attack with nuclear weapons will immediately trigger a mirror response in kind. For more than 70 years, this conviction – the balance of fear - was shared by nuclear powers and kept WWIII away.
@DAlperovitch
See, isn't he rational? He dances on the brink (Kabuki dancing), threatens nuclear war. But when an intimidation failed, he would step back (not Kamikaze). And no problem with the face-saving. The only thing NATO should fear is fear itself.
The use of strategic nuclear forces, which Putin ordered to be put on high alert (and apparently nothing happened), is a suicidal act given the policy of mutually assured destruction.
Wake up call!
Assassinating Navalny, an outstanding leader, and imprisoning Kara-Murza and other heroes advocating for truth and democracy are essential tools for sustaining Putin's tyranny in Russia, along with his anti-American, anti-Western foreign policy.
Subversion of democracy and the world order, regarded as an existential threat by the Putin regime, is a crucial driving force behind Russian aggression in Ukraine, its collaboration with Iran and North Korea, and its 'friendship' with China.
As I explained in my other thread, he is not interested in pressing the strategic nuclear button, but is smart enough to threaten to do it. Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet leader who was fascinated with nuclear bombs, tried this before.
Anything can happen in Russia suddenly and quickly. I have experience with this. Don't buy Putin or Prigozhin. They might try to eat or/and embrace each other, being cynical opportunists and gangsters.
The US should stay cool. And double military aid 🇺🇦!
@McFaul
Believe it or not, I've never met a Russophobe. If there are Russophobes, then it's those people in the Kremlin who treat the Russian people like second-class citizens who allegedly cannot belong the free world.
Because the strategy is to always exaggerate your resolve--and your opponent expects you to--when NATO says they will NEVER intervene, it sends a strong signal that they have no resolve. This is an invitation for Putin to do as he pleases--it EMBOLDENS him. Beyond just Ukraine.
@apmassaro3
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba: " We literally have no other option but to win this war.. The existence of Ukrainian nation is at stake.
We're not going to surrender under any circumstances. We aren't going to give away any single inch of our land to them."
#Ukraine
🇺🇦
A good solution for both Ukraine and Russia would be the withdrawal of Russian troops to the internationally recognized border between the two countries, established in 1991 and specified in a treaty Putin signed in 2003.
Anything else won't stand long.
A huge audience in Russia cheered bold anti-Putin, anti-senseless-war statements of Yuri Shevchuk, a star rock musician and singer/songwriter. Russians will accept an end of the war with free Ukraine. West must help Kyiv to defeat invasion!
The Kremlin TV is blaming Democrats' created "atmosphere around Trump" for an outrageous attempt on him. As usual, domestic propaganda will be translated to poison the political atmosphere in America through cyberspace.
The Kremlin has approved a list of countries who have been “unfriendly” to Russia. They include:
Australia, UK, EU countries, Iceland, Canada, Liechtenstein, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, Korea, San Marino, Singapore, USA, Taiwan, Ukraine, Montenegro, Switzerland, Japan
Anti-Jewish pogroms, known in Russia for more than a century, have never been spontaneous. Like external aggression, they constitute a form of internal violence used to justify the iron fist of tyranny.
A reason Russia, Iran, Hamas, North Korea support each other is the allure of strongmen promising stability. This contrasts with what they mock as the democracies' decadence. For them, chaos is essential.
"Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn and cauldron bubble."
Putin is preparing to portray his barbaric invasion of Ukraine as a victory against Nazism at the WWII Victory Day parade. The WWII allies (U.S., U.K., France and others) must condemn this desecration of a solemn day when real Nazism was defeated.
The only way to stop Russian aggression in 🇺🇦 and prevent its potential enlargement to Europe is to give 🇺🇦 the most potent weapons to defeat the invaders as soon as possible.
Lenin not only promised to drain the swamp of the established order and build a better one like any populist. He shrugged off morals, claiming that the end justifies means: violence, lies, and the cult of personality. Nothing exclusively Russian. Beware!
Lenin died on January 21, 1924, 100 years ago.
No room for nostalgia!
He was a criminal.
He founded the system of dictatorship and repression that Stalin turned into a totalitarian regime—and Putin after the fall of Communism.
The Soviet system was intrinsically an abomination.
Putin again threatened the West with nuclear weapons. The Biden Administration refuses to send long-range missiles and F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.
Both news broke out almost simultaneously. Coincidence? Causation. Thread of 8.
McCain: “Today's press conference in Helsinki was one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory. The damage inflicted by President Trump's naiveté, egotism, false equivalence, and sympathy for autocrats is difficult to calculate".
Now it’s time for a Churchill-Truman like address to the world. The aggressive war and a menace of dictate by an authoritarian power came to Europe. Stay by Ukraine, contain the aggressor!
Russia's aggression in the center of Europe serves as a ram for Iran and China in breaking the world order. Defeating it in Ukraine is the priority for restoring deterrence elsewhere. And Ukraine's fight makes it optimal—the US must only supply the most potent weapons.
The secret why Putin regime attacks Ukraine and NATO is here. It is about to shut down the last Russian-speaking free speech radio and TV platforms in Russia Eco Moskvy and Rain. Others are either in Ukraine or in NATO countries. The regime hunts freedom. Brutally. Everywhere.
Putin does not want to commit nuclear suicide, but he dreams of successfully intimidating and humiliating the West in contrast to his Soviet predecessors. That is his strategic goal, not just the conquest of Ukraine, which would be the first step to greatness.
Russia has steadily strengthened ties with Iran-backed
#Hamas
over the past decade. Make no mistake: what you’re seeing in
#Israel
today is directly connected to what you see in
#Ukraine
every day.
Фильм Марии Певчих не про "плохие 90 е", а про то, что Путин в те годы не был известным политиком, не прилетел в кремль из космоса, a был назначен Ельциным с подачи конкретных людей.
Певчих всколыхнула массовый интерес. Ее фильм опровергает мифы, мешающие движению вперед: не чуждый демократии русский народ, а конкретные люди в Кремле привели Путина к власти. Они продали странy не США, а российским олигархам.
Правда прошлого, уроки на будущее.
Мария Певчих, следуя герою Алексею Навальному, фильмом Предатели сказала правду, которая нам колет глаза.
Дело не в деталях, не в том, что выгодно оппозиции, не в контексте 90х или России, а в личном выборе каждого. Тогда, сегодня и завтра.
Looks like the Reichstag Fire but without fire because Putin and his lackeys are so cowardly that they would not even fakely aim at him anything more potent than a baby drone. Long-range weapons to the Ukraine army would adequately react to this provocation.
You wouldn't believe it. After Kremlin was hit by drones yesterday night, they called it "an assassination attempt". That is, after trying to bomb the hell out of Kyiv and Ukraine for 14 months, killing tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers, they still do not believe they
“This is not Russia’s war. This is a military crime by an unelected, unaccountable, authoritarian, and frankly increasingly deranged dictator.”
Spoke with
@BBCNews
about Putin’s war on Ukraine.
A choir of voices calls for a “realistic” settlement in Ukraine, with Russia gaining at least Crimea. One can only imagine what will happen after that in the long run. Thread.
И еще один - наверное главный миф, опровергнутый Марией, что провалилась демократия и сама идея демократии не для Россиян.
Ее украли, их обманули, и это надо знать, чтобы больше ничего такого не допустить.
Правда колет, но она и лечит!
Экс-глава МИД России Андрей Козырев
@andreivkozyrev
высоко оценил фильм ФБК «Предатели»
«Фильм помогает развенчать очень важные, очень опасные мифы, которые преследуют российскую политику, которые придуманы, навязаны и продолжают навязываться пропагандой»
Читайте и слушайте
Exploiting terrorist acts for blaming and then "revenging" political opponents is by the book of Bolshevism/Putinism. Tradition goes from an attempt on Lenin a century ago to the recent massacre in a Moscow shopping mole. (+1)
My diplomatic career began when, under Reagan and W. Bush, America led the World. Shockingly, even a vague commitment to help resist nuclear-state aggression "for as long as it takes" has proven shorter-lived than the U.S. administration expected.
So,
Subversion of democracy and the world order, regarded as an existential threat by the Putin regime, is a crucial driving force behind Russian aggression in Ukraine, its collaboration with Iran and North Korea, and its 'friendship' with China.
Concerning developments today. Recent history can teach some lessons.
Recently declassified US national security docs vis-a-vis NATO expansion corroborate the story of damaging US diplomatic moves in early 1990s.
Putin likes the war of attrition despite being against Russia's national interest in socio-economic development. It helps him to cement dictatorship at home, create war fatigue in the West, and undermine the US and NATO on the world stage.
@EliotACohen
@nytimes
Yes, "The spirit of appeasement and surrender will always be with us." Like assaults on democracy. Like diseases. And we must always be on guard and pushback.
Remarkably clear explanation.
The Case for Supporting Ukraine Is Crystal Clear - Note to Congress: Ukraine aid is not charity but serves critical U.S. interests.
Disillusion him. US, the West and Ukrainians are not impotent covards. Immediately.
Maximum military support to fighting Ukraine, food and medicine.
Stronger sanctions, especially on Kremlin government officials and propagandists, seise assets.
Just DO it and you'll see.
Lavrov revealed Putin's Russia's global strategy, which is a paraphrased version of Cold War tactics that never ended for Putin and his allies.
It's high time the West responded to this reality with deterrence, containment, and an information campaign."
+3
Thank you for your kind words, my friend.
@carlbildt
is one of a kind on the world stage, a true leader with a moral compass. And deeply knowledgeable about Russia and Eastern Europe.
Distinguished diplomat
@andreivkozyrev
was the first Foreign Minister of 🇷🇺 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Globally respected. Sergey Lavrov was his deputy at the time.
Several Nobel prize winners signed a letter calling for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.
Without readiness to stay anonymously in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories for a couple of months, this "humanism" is worth an
Ig Nobel prize. Sorry.
@anneapplebaum
The US and allies should not give him the advantage of the war of attrition. For him people, Rus and world economy, grain, are cannon fodder. Give UKR most advanced weapons, the NATO advantage, and through P back to UKR borders. Much better economically, politically, moraly.
In a new video on Feb. 26, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pushes back on what he says is misinformation: “We aren't going to lay down our arms. We are going to defend our nation.”
Happy for the release of hostages from Russia.
But let’s face it, Putin’s regime sees a pattern of doing business with the West: take people and foreign countries hostage and gain criminals and criminal catch in a swap “of good will.”
We’re waging a proxy war against Russia, and rightly so. Time to face up to what that implies, because Putin and the Russians are a lot weaker, and the Ukrainians a lot stronger than they look. My latest in
@TheAtlantic
@CSIS
@SAISHopkins
@PhillipsPOBrien
Through confidential talks, the Kremlin uses the vanity of some US influencers to influence the US think tanks, and government and LOL on them.
@McFaul
P's point is to intimidate and humiliate the US and the West and to terrorize UKR to submission. That's the logic of a street gangster who relies on two factors. His braziness and his neighbors' timidity even if they a are much more powerful.
If NATO and Washington won’t fail Ukraine in the current war, in the future Moscow like Pyongyang will not dare to attack a strong America-protected neighbor.
Great article. The new $3 million of supplies from America is right on time. Just put the most powerful weapons in the basket and deliver promptly.
Putin’s on the brink
Indeed, it's time to stop talking and to walking tougher! The main health of mind problem of the Russian ruler and his acolytes is insane sense of impunity fed by years of Western appeasement. Need
maximum strength pills NOW as children are killed in Ukraine. Finetune later.