Is anyone else surprised that Texas (ERCOT) can now have very boring price days MID SUMMER when wind output is sub 200 MW
I shouldn't be, the solar obviously was going to compliment a wind profile, but this is a paradigm shift in terms of price forecasting.
Pretty cool. Solar is shaving the gross load peaks this summer so significantly for ERCOT
Wind/solar profiles don’t perfectly compliment each other but they work very well together in Texas summer climate
Natural gas prices fell over 50% between 2023 and 2024 yet gas power production in CAISO fell in that same time period to all time lows.
Spark spreads (profitability) are not driving macro gas plant behavior anymore. Batteries have changed the rules of the game.
Update your
In 2024, natural gas generation on an average April day in California hit a 7-year low.
This is a significant trend reversal from what we saw from 2021 to 2023 in CAISO.
Consuming more energy in the midst of an energy crisis helps reduce the severity of the energy crisis!
This is insane. The long term argument of market incentivization of investment, debatable. But to argue that THIS SUMMER bitcoin load online in ERCOT is helpful is delusional
Jeff Bezos, hours after flying to space: "We need to take all heavy industry, all polluting industry, and move it into space. And keep Earth as this beautiful gem of a planet that it is."
NEWS- I’m no longer with Ascend Analytics.
Joining Black Mountain’s Energy storage group next week!
Small team, well funded. We will be focusing on, actually, best I not say yet ;). Batteries
My colleague Witt Duncan will be at
#ESACon21
-> reach out!
"After receiving inquiries for nearly 2,000 MW of new service for cryptocurrency operations, Idaho Power is asking state regulators to approve a new rate schedule for "speculative high-density load" customers"
"The utility's all-time peak is 3,751 MW"
It’s finally here.
And it’s not outdated. And it’s EXTREMELY dense (which is needed). And covers with recent examples
“For now I have become death, the destroyer of worlds’
But this will take weeks to read
Officially moved.
Boulder - with Ascend Analytics
Don’t know too many rookie in the immediate area so advice on meeting fun (energy or not) 25-30yr old people appreciated ;). Must be infinity curious!
Is there an app out here for that?
ERCOT peak load is 1/100th of 7 TW.
@mzjacobson
is off by 100x.
Invalidating everything else in this “study”
It’s not that he’s wrong this one time, it’s that he doesn’t understand electricity and/or math
Consistently, across many “studies”
Embarrassment to
@Stanford
Sue me
But why isn’t this reducing fossil/gas demand in Casio? Isn’t that what we care about! Been consistently on the rise (max’s chart)
You’d expect net load and net gas gen to correlate inversely but it’s trending the other way!
Hint: out of merit order dispatches ;)
Net Load - the grid load after renewables - in California reached an all-time low this month. However, generation from fossil fuels is up🤔
Will being sharing more analysis soon when we launch the
@grid_status
blog. And yes, it will have a cheesy electric grid pun as the name
This is the best conspiracy yet. Combines both supply chain and anti vax.
"The semi conductor shortage is faked. It really is the result of the vaccination production since they require microchips for every dose. Why else did chip shortages start with vaccine production?"
And load pays for all of it, not bitcoin load specifically. That part of the argument is simply wrong.
Also see how 'electrical generating capacity has to move up for this to work? that's not free
Also this chart is a average it looks nothing like this on actual days.
🏭🏭🏭
On 2023-06-27 15:45:00-05:00 ERCOT set a load record with 80566MW of load.
This is 0% more than the previous record of 80400, which was set on 2023-06-26 16:50:00-05:00, 0 days and 22.9 hours ago
🏭🏭🏭
765 KV transmission lines are great, unless they go out of service.
This is a great example of demand response needed in a far away location to compensate for a transmission outage.
Some demand response action in NYISO today. As load rose, the ISO deployed Special Case Resources, a long-standing program.
State-wide activations are particularly obvious in the North and West zones as the resources represent a relatively larger portion of zonal demand.
Gestern Freitag.
Wenn der Wind nicht sonderlich gut bläst.
1,5 GW für die Spanier
1,9 GW für die Italiener,
1,9 GW für die Schweizer,
0,9 GW für die Deutschen,
0,2 GW für die Belgier,
0,8 GW für die Engländer.
You don't often see a $4000 delta between two nodes with the same substation ID.
But ERCOT has $5000 + shadow prices and the network in and around Houston is not known for its system strength!
Now we know-
"At 0702 CDT on 7/24/2024, the Unit 1 reactor automatically tripped
If you want a one stop tool that has free and not too expensive paid features, Gridstatus released their Nodal LMP map!
Every new solar plant is plotted, this gives the map better coverage then most any service that is NOT using CEI data.
Anyone know this node?
I apologize to people who are sick of this map but record Texas/ERCOT demand + high enough renewables to actually trigger max transmission capacity of the CREZ/west GTC is not common.
Transmission congestion. Solar curtailing over wind. Circled dot is -.25/mwh solar node
Brazos Elec Coop in TX in Chap 11 bc of last week’s electricity costs
“reported about $1 billion in revenues last year about $3 billion in assets... has neither the capital funds nor the line of credit to pay the invoices.l
2nd largest coop in
#ercot
The actual cost to his reputation after 8 yr of this nonsense is infinity
I very quickly dismiss any work done by his group (almost every single paper is based on a false premise in the end notes) & am suspect of Stanford grads who have taken his program
He lies to them
Sue me
It’s been brought to my attention not every single human being has had the privilege of watching this phenomenal German commercial. It deserves a goddamn Oscar imho
ERCOT / Texas Alert - looks like we hit a record GROSS (not net) demand today unexpectedly, and still rising.
Renewables preforming well but much of the south is bottled up up to STP @ -$204/MWh
Unfortunately wind trending down, sunset is soon, -12GW
"PJM Capacity Auction Procures Sufficient Resources To Meet RTO Reliability Requirement"
For $14 billion. 13 GW drop in UCAP offering. Cleared all but 1 GW.
"the drivers of higher prices in this auction include:
1. Decreased supply offers into the auction due mainly to
Live life N-2.
N-1 isn't reliable enough for your own life/load, N-0 is freaking adventure junkie crazy and N-3 is extremely paranoid crazy.
This has been your transmission planning analogy of the day.
Reviewing the 2022 LTSA and the Southeast has pulled wool over NERCs eyes. A bit of a thread incoming. (1/8)
Most of the country is in dangerous, but isn't it one of the regions most dependent on a single fuel?
@NERC_Official
@FERC
NERC Report:
Electricity Modeling Nerd Question: What do people think of Plexos? Database quality?
Spending 6 figures on this stuff with so little information is ... stressful
Who wore it best?!
We have PJM, oldschool CAISO and MISO as new entrants in the ‘grid operator control room’ beauty contest.
(All from blog posts no confidential entries allowed!)
Announcing Helion’s collaboration with Nucor to deploy a 500 MWe fusion power plant.
Helion’s fusion power will be directly connected to a Nucor steelmaking facility and will pave the way for decarbonizing industrial manufacturing.
Read more:
A nuclear plant tripped offline as well AS WELL AS record low wind in ERCOT today. And yet, except for a few 'wow' intervals, the system remains quite secure today.
This is what it feels like to have plenty of reserve capacity!
Missed this initially
Wait, does CAISO not even have a $2k price cap? is it infinity with congestion stacking and $1k/$2k is energy only offer cap, not price cap?
I'm confused. Which is bad cause I'm supposed to be an expert!
Everyone's tracking CAISO right now, but here's a quick after work cut at the inflation reduction act's "energy communities" I took a swing at after work a couple weeks ago, fun little mapping project with a bunch of data sources
#gis
#InflationReductionAct
@JamesTFrith
someone sent this to me (im not the original creator not sure who) and it’s an inspirational way to convey some concept in the BNEF material!
I’m all for momentary despair.
I’m all against permanent despair.
You have to get up again. That’s the difference. That’s the task as long as we have breathe in our body
CC climate change people
How to use the
@grid_status
LMP map (free or paid)!
And a deep dive into PJM Congestion around data center alley.
Physically close LMPs =! similar prices
Some commentary on the PJM capacity auction (which had transmission constraints into the same area)
Enjoy!
If you’ve used Grid Status recently, you probably noticed our new Nodal Price Map.
In our latest blog, we provide an in-depth guide to locational marginal prices (LMPs) and how to use our map to analyze them.
.
Bankruptcy Filing is in with top 30 creditors.
$1.8b to
#ERCOT
. $500m to BAML. Many many 10 figures.
Totals to $2.8b for the top creditors. 2.8 billion
Link at bottom for lovers of bankruptcy filing details.
IS EVERYONE PANICED YET?
Brazos Default digging. 3GW+ of peak load, spread among 16 coops
They appears to be fully self-hedged with only nature gas plants, which likely failed due to supplies. leaving them with 2-3 GW short at $9000/MWh for 4 days
Default could be $5-8 BILLION
#ERCOT
#Brazos
#Texas
Maps! Time for everyone to get interested
Coverage of about 80% of the solar/storage pricing points in ERCOT (some online last month). More work to be done
Reach out if your willing to provide constructive critism on the existing features + where we should expand next
Getting close to rolling out the biggest update we've ever made to
@grid_status
and we need testers to try it out and give feedback.
It's a complete redesign of the site, centering around a new live nodal price map.
Please DM if you're interested in playing with it!
I would simply build a giant 765 kV transmission network to connect west and east ERCOT (texas) for both importing and exporting power.
This is NOT the CREZ/Panhandle. There's serious load in west texas.
Low: "Seasonally, U.S. gasoline consumption is at the lowest level in 22 years, according to commodity analysts at JP Morgan."
Oil settles down more than $5 as US data shows weak demand for gasoline
So PJM revised their load forecast to a correct number. And it's insane.
13% increase of FORECASTED total growth (not 13% total growth).
Good thing the region produces gas and has a high reserve margin.
(1/2) TXANS Update—August 26, 2023: ERCOT has issued a Conservation Appeal for today, Aug. 26, from 3 – 9 p.m. CT. Operating reserves are expected to be low in the afternoon and evening due to low wind and potential low solar generation and high demand.
Mystery discovered. I was making hydrogen on a very small scale for a few weeks because of all the energy twitter hype.
Got about 16 balloons worth for $1200 in electricity
I think I’ll wait for technology to improve. Lol didn’t realize it would suck up MWhs, no fun fireworks
Mark Jacobson is one of the most respected academics in decarbonization modeling. /sarcasm
Despite nearly all of his work being disproven, his attempts at discrediting legitimate decarbonization research, and his willingness to use frivolously lawsuits; people listen to him
If you and everyone with you like sugar in your coffee, is there any downside to putting it in the grind? Saves time, even distribution
Stay tuned to find out if this goes badly
If you can't watch the eclipse yourself, you can follow the impact on solar generation and grid operations on our Eclipse Tracker dashboard
Live data starting to come in now
🚨🚨 BREAKING 🚨🚨 UK natural gas wholesale prices are ***jumping ~20% today*** to fresh record high as trades brace for more UK gas-fired power station demand after the loss of a key electricity interconnector between UK and France (among other issues)
Well apparently this picture isn't classified so everyone can enjoy it.
This is what the desk of an ISO looks like. Only they're not trying to make money, like, at all.
“I've been wondering for years how Russia managed to keep, train, and maintain such a large standing army/air force/navy/strategic weapon arsenal with only $60B/annual budget. Apparently their secret was that they just skipped the "maintaining/training" part”
O my god, the electricity bill for last month. Not staying at my house but wow I need to get some solar on this roof.
Definitely not going to consume less energy. These grid models don’t crunch themselves and I’m 30 miles from a nuclear plant so ... that makes it ok
Right?
Have you guys not done extensive research on the impact of cycling on thermal plan reliability already? ;)
All these PDFs are public. But if your one of the cool people on energy twitter happy to share them.
No word yet from
@ERCOT_ISO
on specific causes of forced outages. Earlier this year I took an in-depth look at how changing markets may be jeopardizing thermal plant reliability. Cycling causes component fatigue. We need to pay attention and address this.
Um, the default
@California_ISO
phone app has the electricity supply / demand streams crossing (touching) today, briefly
This is what we call a disaster in the electricity industry
Um wait till people realize SPP has amazing solar ncf’s (better then half of Texas) and sufficient interconnections to actually get to 100% annual renewables with no changes today lol.
Caiso just don’t have the wind diversity without some big transmission
@RKonidena
@WSJopinion
This is MISINFORMATION because the power crisis (yes, it's time to start calling it that given its 3 of the 7 major regions in the US) was NOT because of only green policies
It was caused by resource overconcentration. Whether that be in renewables (CA, Hydro) or gas (TX, FL)