Climate, Energy & Electricity Policy. Support competitive markets & climate action. Former PA PUC Commissioner, PA DEP Secretary, Policy Secretary. Penn Law '84
Down 50%! World's largest battery maker will cut battery costs 50% in 2024!
Price of 60 kWh battery pack will fall from $6,776 to just $3,388 in only 12 months, saving over $3,000 per vehicle.
ICE is done, with length of the funeral only uncertainty.
Wow! Ethiopia is jumping to EVs & will ban importing ICE. Why? It can't afford to spend annually $5 billion on oil imports!
EVs are already ~10% of Ethiopia's auto FLEET!
Ethiopia Shows Us Just How Fast The Transition To Electric Mobility Can Happen In Africa - CleanTechnica
Good morning with good news: Kansas has moved from 100% fossil fuel electricity generation in November 2003 to just 16% in April 2023. Twenty years to clean up. Iowa was even lower at 13% in April. Generation in KS, IA & VT was more than 80% non-fossil fuel in April.
Good morning with good news: Batteries cost "less than 50% of what they did just 18 months ago, and 90% less than a decade ago."
"Batteries — the icing on the renewable cake — will be the grave of oil, coal and natural gas..."
They will jump 5X by 2035!
Good morning with good news: Solar and wind were 92% of India's generation additions in 2022. It deployed as much solar in 2022 as the UK has ever built. Coal also was down 78%.
India's large wind & solar additions are vital climate action. Wonderful!
Wow! The world in which we all live will invest more in solar than in oil, for the first time ever, in 2023. The energy world is rapidly changing, but I'm pinching myself writing this news. Who says it? IEA, in its just released report:
Good morning with good news: USA will smash its solar deployment record in 2024, installing ~46 GW! That is 5X solar installed in 2019 and nearly double 2022 level. Wow!
US solar additions:
2019 9GW
2020 15GW
2021 19GW
2022 18GW
2023 26GW
2024 ~46GW
Good morning with good news: China's CO2 emissions are likely peaking this year, with long-term decline starting in 2024. That's seven years ahead of China's 2030 target to reach peak emissions! Peak Chinese CO2 is vital for climate action. Now Downward!
Good morning with good news: Renewables and nuclear power generated 49.4% of USA's electricity in March! RE alone produced 29.85%, with wind and solar at 21.2%.
USA nears its first month in many generations, when fossil fuels will provide less than 50% of its power for a month!
Good morning with good news: Portugal plans to generate 93% of its electricity with renewables by 2030!
Portugal generated 73% of its electricity with renewables in 2023.
Portugal will cut its CO2 emissions 55% below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.
ICE vehicles caught fire 20 times more frequently than EVs in Sweden during 2022! This won't stop the Bash-EV-Gang from burning truth. But EVs are much lower fire risk than ICE vehicles!
Petrol and diesel cars 20 times more likely to catch fire than EVs
Good morning with good news: US will double battery storage in 2024! The US battery storage boom will add 15.5 GWs in 2024. Batteries will jump from 15.4 GW to 30.9 GW in one year!
Battery boom is much bigger than the AI demand "surge" of ~18 GW by 2030.
Samsung shows Solid State battery with 20-year lifespan and 600-mile range. It's capable of charging in 9 minutes, given fast-charging infrastructure.
It doubles energy density of most EV batteries today.
Battery innovation is creative destruction!
Good morning with good news: There is a 70% chance global CO2 emissions start falling in 2024 says research by Climate Analytics. Wind & solar growth could peak coal in 2023 and gas in 2024. EV growth may cause peak oil in 2025.
50 countries peaked total GHG emissions by 2015!
Huge! China brings online a huge 5 GW solar plant. This is the world's largest solar plant and was generating electricity on Monday. Huge!
World’s biggest solar farm goes is big enough to power an entire country
Why are solar & wind booming? They're cheaper!
NEW wind, solar and hydro are cheaper globally than fossil fuel generation!
2023 Global average cost:
Fossil Fuels 7.1 cents/kWh
Hydro 5.7 cents/kWh
Solar PV 4.4 cents/kWh
Land Wind 3.3 cents/kWh
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Good morning with good news: Renewables generated 95% of Portugal's electricity in May & 92% in June!
Portugal went from 37% RE in June 2019 to 92% in June 2024. Rapid decarbonization in 5 years.
Wind and solar skyrocketed from 25% in June 2019 to 53% in June 2024! Wow!
Good: "The country’s implied gasoline consumption has fallen to more than 200,000 barrels a day below seasonal norms while supply has increased." But why?
~4 million EV autos on road & growing numbers of electric bikes. EVs grow too by ~115k/month.
Good morning with good news: An historic first from the EU, where solar generated more electricity than coal for the entire EU during May, 2023! Also, new EU solar installations leaped 34% in 2022, an otherwise challenging year.
Credit
@EmberClimate
and
Good morning with good news: Goldman Sachs forecasts battery prices fall 50% by 2026, dropping to $80/kWh from $149/kWh in 2023. Wow!
At $80/kWh, EVs "would achieve ownership cost parity with gasoline-fueled cars in the US on an unsubsidized basis." Yes!!
US per capita gasoline consumption is down 15% from 2003. What about total gasoline consumption? In 2023, it was at 2003 levels. US EV fleet grew ~1.4 million in 2023, and the number of new EVs sold in 2024 will be even higher. US gasoline consumption is in structural decline!
Good morning with good news: Renewables generated 95% of Portugal's electricity in April! Wow!
That compares to 76.5% in April 2023, 66.8% in April 2022 and 56.1% in April 2021.
Wind was 31%, solar nearly 12%, hydro 45% and bioenergy 7%!
Data from:
Good morning with good news: Renewable energy generated 73% of Portugal's electricity in 2023. The Whole Year!
FFs are down to 27%, plunging from 61% in 2017. Coal is 0%; gas 24%.
Wind generated 29.5%. Solar 10.2%. Hydro 24.5%. Bioenergy 8.2%. Wonderful!
Collapse of gas demand in Europe from August 2022 to May 2024 is incredible!
Denmark down 41%
Finland down 36%
Latvia down 31%
Lithuania down 30%
Sweden down 29%
Russian invasion of Ukraine shows gas threatens Europe's economies and national security.
Good morning with good news: New solar is cheaper than running existing coal at nearly all US coal plants, even assuming solar is built near each coal plant. Median cost of new solar is $24/MWh, while median marginal cost of coal is $36/MWh.
Good morning with good news: US solar generation was up 44% in June 2024, compared to June 2023. Wow!
June 2024: 36 TWh
June 2023: 25 TWh
June 2022: 22 TWh
June 2021: 17 TWh
Solar is up ~110% since June 2021. It generated 8.55% of US electricity this June and is vital to USA!
Good morning with good news: A 20-year-old solar panel can produce about 90% of its original capability.
Degradation of 0.5%/year is typical, though rate can be 0.3% for premium Panasonic & LG.
25-year warranties on solar panel are industry standard.
US energy related CO2 emissions are nearly back to 1973 levels (~3% above 1973). For years, many right-wingers and fossil fuel interests said cutting carbon emissions means shrinking the economy. Nope!
US economy grew 60% since 2000 as CO2 emissions fall to nearly 1973 levels.
Good morning with good news: Here's what the USA will add from May 2024-May 2025:
Solar 41,451 MW
Wind 6,419 MW
Battery 16,419 MW
Gas 455 MW
Nuclear 45 MW
Biomass 34 MW
Hydro 33 MW
99% of capacity added is RE, nuclear & batteries. Wow!
EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 6.1
Good morning with good news: "China's clean power expansion is now pushing coal into reverse."
China added 102 GW of solar & 26 GW of wind in first half of 2024. Solar additions were up 31% & wind up 12% compared with first half of 2023.
China's CO2 went down 1% in Q2 2024!
UK has had an energy revolution in just 5 years! Coal down from 42% to 7%. Renewables up to 23% from 10% in JUST 5 years. Non-fossil fuel generation up to 47% from 30%. Gas has jumped too but is now the carbon reduction target in UK power sector. Will UK now get off gas bridge?
Good morning with good news: US coal generation fell 28% during first half of 2023, compared to first 6 months of 2022! Coal generated just 15% of US electricity for January to June 2023. It is dying rapidly now. First coal. Then gas!
Good morning with good news: US solar generation will skyrocket 43% in 2024 says EIA! Wow!
That's production, not capacity.
Solar will generate more than hydro in 2024 and more than coal by ~2026!
Stunning: China's 2024 cost of battery cells is more than 40% lower than the 2023 global average was.
This is the price of battery cells, not battery packs.
The pace of battery cost reduction and innovation is stunning.
EVs are coming fast and hard for oil burners.
Less Than $10,000!
"BYD launches cheaper Seagull electric car with starting price under $10,000 to fuel price war."
BYD declares war on ICE and oil, proclaiming "electricity is cheaper than oil." Legacy ICE automakers are rapidly running out of time.
Good morning with good news: Fully electric vehicles are now cheaper than ICE vehicles in China. In fact, BEV are the cheapest category. Huge!
EV once was affordable to wealthy only. Not anymore. Now it's ICE that will lose the middle class. Wonderful! Credit
@colinmckerrache
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Good morning with good news: Wind and solar generated 58.35% of Netherlands electricity in June 2024. Wow!
June 2024 58%
June 2023 51%
June 2022 36%
June 2021 29%
June 2020 22%
June 2019 18%
June 2018 14%
The Netherlands skyrocketed wind and solar generation in five years!
Good morning with good news: China's coal generation fell for the second month in a row in June! In June, coal fell 7.4%, after falling 4% in May!
Bloomberg says China's CO2 emissions may fall in 2024 by 7.2% or 8.2%!
CO2 peaking in 2023 would beat 2030 peak target by 7 years.
California's gasoline sales fall to below 2000 level!
Why do they keep falling? Telecommuting and rising EV sales.
EVs were 25% of auto sales in California in the second quarter of 2024.
Chart Credit
@GregorMacdonald
Good morning with good news: Skyrocketing wind & solar are now generating more electricity than gas in UK.
W&S generated 54 TWh, compared to 40 TWh for gas, from January to July 2024!
UK has also nearly ended coal. In the UK, first coal; now gas!
Credit
@janrosenow
Good morning with good news: Renewable energy produced 90.2% of Denmark's electricity in May 2024.
Fossil Fuels generated just 9.8%.
Wind & solar provided 78.4%, with wind at 53.1% & solar 25.3%. Offshore wind was 26.1%.
Denmark was 90% RE in May with zero hydro. Impressive!
Good morning with good news: Coal in US fell to record low levels in March 2024, generating just 11.61% of US electricity!
Why? Booming RE, especially solar!
Coal's March shares are:
2024: 11.6%
2023: 14.9%
2022: 18.4%
2021: 19.6%
2020: 16.2%
2019: 23.8%
From EIA & Ember data
Good morning with good news: US solar generation jumped 25.5% in March 2024, compared to March 2023!
US coal generation fell 23.4% in March 2024, compared to March 2023! Coal dropped to just 11.8% of USA's electricity.
Wind generated ~18% more electricity than coal in March!
Incredible: 600-660 GW!
Global solar industry in 2024 is on track to smash its huge record deployment of ~444 GW in 2023 which smashed its huge record deployment of ~240 GW.
2024 global solar installations of 600-660 GW will be 40%-50% higher than the previous 2023 record.
Good morning with good news: Renewables jump from 30% of global electricity in 2023 to 35% in 2025!
W&S rise from 13% in 2023 to 18% in 2025. Wow!
RE surpasses coal in 2025!
RE generates more electricity than any other source by 2025.
Data in IEA's 2024 Electricity Update.
Good morning with good news: Ground was broken yesterday on the Sunzia 550-mile transmission line that will connect 3.5 GW of wind being built in New Mexico to customers in Arizona and California. It's described as largest RE project in USA.
Good morning with good news: EVs in Norway were 94.3% of sales in July, record high! BEV were 91.9% & PHEV 2.4%. That compares with 81.7% BEV & 8.1% PHEV in July 2023.
EV were 50% of sales in China in June. When will EV reach 94% in China? By 2030?
Credit
@cleantechnica
Good morning with good news: US solar generation skyrockets 25% from January-May 2024, compared to same period 2023!
Top five solar states and their generation increases are:
California (up 16%)
Texas (up 38%)
Florida (up 31%)
Arizona (up 23%)
Nevada (up 19%)
Wonderful!
Good morning with good news: Battery storage Investment globally doubled in 2022 and will jump ~80% in 2023. Investment more than doubles in USA from $6 billion in 2022 to $13 billion in 2023. Batteries are keys for reliability and RE grid integration.
Good morning with good news: China's coal generation fell to a record low 53% in May 2024! Gas generation also fell 16%. Zero-carbon generation surged to 44%. Why?
Solar skyrocketed 78%! Hydro jumped 39% & wind 5%.
China every year smashes records for W&S deployment. Wow!
Good morning with good news: USA's carbon emissions are down 5% in 2023 through May, compared to same period in 2022! Plummeting coal burning is the main reason. Coal CO2 emissions are down ~30%. Gas and oil CO2 emissions are also down slightly. EIA data:
Plunge: Gas demand in Europe plunged in 2022; fell further in 2023; and is plunging again in 2024!
UK, Spain, Portugal & other countries are rapidly expanding RE to reduce gas burning on their grids. They're also electrifying heating.
This plunge is good! Credit
@ira_joseph
Good morning with good news: Texas jumps solar 2x & battery 4.4x in 2023-2025!
Solar Battery
2019 2.6GW 0.15GW
2023 22GW 5GW
2024 31GW 10GW
2025 46GW 22GW
Credit
@NatBullard
Good morning with good news: "For every doubling of deployment, battery costs have fallen by 19%. Couple these cost declines with density gains of 7% for every deployment doubling and batteries are the fastest-improving clean energy technology." Wonderful!
Good morning with good news: US utility scale solar (up 150%) and battery storage (up 130%) absolutely skyrocket!
Utility scale solar adds 36.3 GW from Nov. 2023 to Oct. 2024, compared to 14.7 GW in prior 12 months.
Batteries add 12.3 GW, compared 5.3 GW. Wow!
Good morning with good news: Global sales of gas-powered vehicle sales peaked in 2017, dropped every year since 2017, and are down 23% from peak.
EVs were 20% of global auto sales and 35% of sales in China in Q4 2023. Global EV spending rose 36% in 2023.
European gas demand collapses back to 1984!
Gas demand peaked in 2006, with small decline to 2022.
Then 2022!
Putin's invasion of Ukraine and skyrocketing gas prices showed gas was risky and dirty. Europe accelerated RE, EE & electrification.
Gas demand collapses to 1984!
Good morning with good news: Norway's gasoline consumption fell 37% from 2013-2021. Sales of EVs grew from 3% in 2012 to 80% in 2022. EVs are more than a fifth of Norway's auto fleet, with EVs accounting for 23% of miles driven. EVs have begun to eat oil.
Good morning with good news: Growth of battery sales is following an S curve, growing 33% to 40% per year. Sales double in ~2 years.
Why exponential growth? Battery costs are down 99% and density of cells has improved 5X in 30 years! VTH/VTG will be big!
Good morning with good news: Solar generation skyrockets ~9X in Portugal, pushing RE generation to ~90% of its electricity in first half of 2024!
July Solar Share
2024 24.8%
2023 14.1%
2022 9.5%
2021 6.0%
2019 2.7%
Good morning with good news: Germany is world's third largest economy, and its electricity was 70% renewable for the month of April!
Germany also had 50 hours of negative wholesale electricity prices during April. Big load shifting opportunities!
Good morning with good news: Solar plus storage or wind plus storage are NOW much cheaper than coal or gas generated electricity in most of the world.
By 2027, clean solar or wind PLUS STORAGE are cheaper than dirty fossil fuels in the entire world!
Good morning with good news: Reaching an historic milestone, wind & solar generated more electricity in the EU for an entire month than fossil fuels! That happened in May. Zero-carbon generated ~73% & fossil fuels just 27%. Coal fell to 10%, a record low.
Solar, batteries & wind/RE dominate (99.6%) US net capacity additions in next 12 months.
New utility scale solar skyrockets to 36GW, up ~150% compared to past 12 months.
Batteries add 12.3GW, up from 5.4GW.
Onshore wind adds 6.6GW & Offshore wind 2.1GW
Good morning with good news: Solar skyrockets in Nigeria, after big subsidies for gasoline and diesel were ended. BNEF says solar capacity now will triple to 1.6 GW within a year. Nigeria may use off-grid solar to "build grid-scale volumes."
@solar_chase
Huge: USA's largest solar plus battery storage plant comes online in California! This giant is 875 MW solar plus 3.3 GWh storage. Total financing for the project is $1.7 billion, and it's located partly on Department of Defense land. Huge is wonderful!
Good morning with good news: Spain is nearing 100% clean and Sweden is there!
Spain was 78%, 84% and 85% clean respectively in January, February and March 2024.
Spain and Sweden use wind, solar, hydro and nuclear to eliminate fossil fuel electricity.
Stunning!
"Instead of rebuilding or reconductoring two 230-kV lines, PPL spent less than $300,000 installing sensors on the lines..," saving "about $50 million in costs and immediately started saving about $20 million in annual congestion costs."
Good morning with good news: Solar efficiency improved 38% since 2012, while prices fell 89%.
Solar efficiency jumped from 16.8% in 2018 to 21.3% in 2023!
Better & cheaper: That's why solar dominates new generation globally & in US!
Credit
@NatBullard
&
Wonderful: Largest solar-plus-storage project in U.S. now operational in Nevada!
690 MW solar plus 380 MW/1,520 MWh storage. It will meet 10% of peak needs.
Two years to construct from financial closing. Twenty-five year PPA.
Good morning with good news: Energy storage is skyrocketing globally. BNEF says it will increase 14.5 times by 2030. To be on a Net Zero pace, it needs to increase by about 10% to a 16.1x rise. Energy storage is vital to integrating booming solar and wind generation into grids.
Rapid decarbonization! Thanks to wind and solar the Netherlands is rapidly decarbonizing its electricity.
It increased the share of wind and solar from ~8% in 2015 to 41% in 2023! Wind was 24% and solar ~17%.
A Five Times increase in eight years. Wow!
Megapack Price down 44% in 14 months!
1.9 MW/3.9 MWh now priced at $1,039,290, or $266/kWh.
In April 2023, price was $1,879,840 or $482/kWh. Price down 44% in 14 months.
Lower prices raise Tesla battery deployment 157%!
Megapack pricing down 44%
Good morning with good news: Lithium-ion battery cell prices drop from $400/kWh in 2014 to record low average price of $78/kWh in May 2024.
That's an 80.5% drop!
Battery price decline is a key to making EVs competitive with ICE. Prices down. Performance up.
Credit
@sdmoores
Good morning with good news: Solar was 78.5% and wind 20.3% of new US utility-scale capacity in January & February 2024. RE dominance in 2024 to date.
Solar has provided the most new generating capacity in US for six straight months thru February 2024.
Amazing Spain! Spain slashed its carbon emissions 33% from electricity in 2019, compared to 2018. Renewables supplied 36.8%. Nuclear about 21.8%. Coal cut to 5%. Spain had set 2030 as date to be coal free. | In English | EL PAÍS
History made: Germany will cross the 50% renewable generation milestone for a full year in 2023. Wind and solar are ~39% of Germany's electricity.
Germany's goal is 80% RE by 2030. Tough but doable. If not in 2030, Germany will be 80% RE soon after.
Corolla killer: “The new BYD Qin Plus EV is the car that makes EVs way cheaper than ICE vehicles and blows open the mainstream market,”
How much? $15,000!
“Corolla killer:” BYD launches $15,000 EV in direct attack on legacy makers
Musk takes advice from "right wing trolls," including those who praise Hitler and who spread election & vaccine lies. Musks picks fights with Senators Warren, Sanders, Markey & Pelosi. He endorses Rs, predicting Red Wave. He is another FOX News.
@elonmusk
Rise of wind and fall of coal in the UK!
Coal collapsed in 10 years and goes to zero in September.
Wind skyrocketed from ~5% in 2010 to nearly 30% in 2023, with the UK awarding today contracts for 6.4 GW of land and offshore wind!
Beautiful chart!
Good morning with good news: An 800 MW solar project in Illinois, the biggest east of the Mississippi, will be operational in early 2025! Wow!
The project uses panels mostly made in USA & pays $100 million of local taxes. Solar boom is triple win!
EVs slash energy demand!
Say a country burned equivalent of 1,000 TWh of gasoline for road transport.
Do you need 1,000 TWh of electricity to replace gasoline cars with electric ones? Nope!
You might need as little as 224 TWh. Four to five times less.
Agrivoltaic boom!
Enel contracts with Texas Solar Sheep, a family business, for sheep grazing at solar farms.
This contract is to graze 10,000 acres!
Nationally about 100,000 acres that host solar farms are also used for animal grazing. Wonderful!
That's a picture of the first gas station in Texas to install solar. It's a 49 KW system in Crandall, Texas.
This picture, indeed, is worth a thousand words.
Wow!
Skyrocketing wind (up 46%) and solar (up 20%) slashed gas burning in UK to generate electricity to a record low level for a month, during this August.
Carbon intensity of the grid fell 40% to lowest level recorded for a month.
Greenest summer!
Good morning with good news: Norway's data indicates EVs "fail at a lower rate than gas cars in extreme cold."
EVs are 25% of cars in Norway. In a recent cold snap, 13% of cars unable to start were EV. For 2024 so far, 21% of cars unable to start were EV.
Good morning with good news: Pinch yourself. China will increase its solar capacity by 3x; USA by ~3x; India by 3x; Spain by ~4x from 2023-2027. China jumps 872 GWs and USA rises 252 GWs. That's the medium scenario in just released Solar Europe report.
Good morning with good news: Thirty-one nations pass 5% market share for fully electric vehicles, the tipping point for mass adoption!
Examples are Australia 9.5%; Thailand 12.6%; Turkey 12%.
Chart is partial list, BEVs, no PHEVs. EV adoption is global!
Good morning with good news: CATL is selling an EV battery with a guarantee for 1.5 million kilometers (932,056 miles) and 15 years. The lithium iron phosphate battery will operate in buses, light trucks and heavy trucks. Wow!
Battery innovation is huge!
Good morning with good news: Solar will install globally ~344 GW in 2023, up 37% from 2022. It may break 400 GW mark in 2024. Solar additions from 2024-2028 likely generate electricity equivalent to about US 2022 total. We are witnessing an historic energy revolution. Wonderful!
Good morning with good news: It took until 2022 for the world to reach 1 TW of solar. Two years later, in 2024, global solar capacity reaches 2 TW!
By 2028, global solar capacity is 5.1 TW in Solar Power Europe's medium scenario. Wow!
50 countries will install 1GW plus in 2025.
Good morning with good news: Renewables generated 30% of world's electricity in 2023 & will generate 50% by 2030! BNEF says 50% with current policy.
With nuclear, world is on track for ~60% clean generation by 2030.
RE gains 2%-3% per year of global market share. Wow!
Wow!
@HannahRitchie
shows converting all UK transportation to electricity vehicles powered by wind and solar generated electricity cuts total energy demand consumed by transportation by ~73%. This example exposes the Primary Energy fallacy!
H/T
@Stockfttp
Good morning with good news: Fossil fuel generated electricity in EU fell to 28% in February 2024 from 38% in February 2023! Coal plunged to 10.6%!
Fossil Fuel % is:
February 2017 49%
Februaty 2019 40%
February 2022 35%
February 2023 38%
February 2024 28%
Good morning with good news: Spain will increase RE generated electricity from ~50% in 2023 to 81% in 2030! Wow!
How? Spain will build 300 more renewable energy projects, totaling 28 GW. Investments will be mainly in solar but also include 43 wind farms and 1 new hydro facility.
Good morning with good news: Solar is booming in India, and that's vital climate action! A new record of 16-17 GW may be added this fiscal year, breaking last year's record of 12.78 GW. India's total generation capacity is ~416 GW, with solar at 72 GW.
Good morning with good news: Solar and wind deployed combined new capacity of more than ~520 GW in 2023! Solar likely exceeded 413 GW.
In 2024, wind and solar will break their huge 2023 records, with more than 600 GW likely. Why?
They're lowest cost!
Good morning with good news: US solar generation has doubled every 3 years from August 2015 to August 2024! Wow!
Aug 2024 33.85 TWh
Aug 2021 17.30 TWh
Aug 2018 9.71 TWh
Aug 2015 4.15 TWh
At this growth rate, solar will generate 68 TWh in 8/2027 & 136 TWh in 8/2030!
Good morning with good news: China's solar capacity jumped 52.4% in April 2024, compared to April 2023, reaching a big 670 GW.
China's wind power capacity hit 460 GW, up 20.6% in April 2024, compared to April 2023.
USA has about 150 GW of solar and 150 GW of wind.