Brian Bartholomew @BPBartholomew Twitter profile

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Brian Bartholomew

1 year

California's famous duck curve, updated for 2023. CAISO now routinely flirts with near-zero net loads on the sunniest spring days.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

European energy market update

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

7 months

Free market Texas when no one wants to build new gas

Claire Hao

@clairehao_

7 months

NEW: If the private sector doesn't build new natural gas power plants in TX, the state will build them and contract others to run them, @DanPatrick told reporters today. Politicians & energy execs are courting investors now at a BlackRock-hosted summit:

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

In stark relief, the price of separate eastern and western interconnections that are unable to flow more than a thimble full of power back and forth. Low and negative prices throughout much of the Great Plains, nearly all over $400/MWh on the other side.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

6 months

The California grid in spring, now featuring: - negative midday power prices and net loads - clean energy meeting more than 100% of afternoon electricity demand - gigawatts of curtailed solar - gas plants pummeled by negative spark spreads - batteries arbitraging power prices

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

1 year

We're going to need a bigger duck

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

US clean power production by state

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

6 months

Grid operators when you ask to interconnect a new project

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

1 year

Exciting times on the California grid, where carbon-free power has been supplying more than 100% of electricity demand through large swaths of the afternoon

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

US clean power production by state

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

Exciting weekend on the California grid, with carbon-free power supplying more than 100% of electricity demand through large swaths of the afternoon

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

6 months

California batteries are getting paid to charge at negative midday power prices

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

California's duck curve is on X Games mode. Midday net loads now routinely dropping into low single digit GWs on the sunniest spring days.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

4 years

Texas wind overtook coal this year to become the state's second-largest source of electricity

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

5 months

@retneysholocron *the duality of Man(dalorian)

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

Alignment, electricity sector edition

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

US renewables grew more than 20x over the last decade and a half, from under 10GW in 2005 to nearly 200GW today

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

5 months

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

Greening the grid, California battery edition

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

For the third year running, wind, solar, and batteries will account for more than 75% of new US power capacity

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

California energy storage now breaking past one thousand megawatts 😎

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

So, the US is made up of three grids...

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

Solar is helping Texas power through the summer heat

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

6 months

An afternoon of free electricity in Texas, and negative power prices across the west!

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

There will be more than 8GW/23GWh of utility-scale US batteries online by end-2022, up from less than 1GW/2GWh as recently as 2019.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

The share of Texas electricity coming from carbon-free resources doubled over the last decade, from a fifth of the power mix in 2012 to over 40% in 2022.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

Wind power overtaking coal in Texas

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

US utility-scale battery power capacity has grown 4x since 2020

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

This really is a story of the balkanization of *both* electricity and gas markets in the US. More transfer capacity of either could help curb current Western power prices, but limited on both for now!

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

There were nearly 9GW/25GWh of utility-scale US energy storage online at the start of 2023, up from less than 1GW/2GWh at the start of 2020.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

10 months

Some great Black Friday deals on California midday power

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

6 months

On sunny spring afternoons, carbon-free power now routinely supplies more than 100% of California electricity demand

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

5 months

when my future wife says it's 'antisocial' to talk about wholesale electricity markets all dinner

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

7 months

Cool week to be a southern California battery

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

ERCOT

@ERCOT_ISO

3 years

ERCOT has completed inspections of more than 300 electric generation units and 22 transmission facilities to assure they comply with tough, new Public Utility Commission and Texas Legislature winter preparation requirements: @PUCTX #txlege .

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

Not great Bob

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 months

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

@xGPhilosophy

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

@cauchyfriend

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

The revenue side

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

10 months

PJM, ISONE, SPP, ERCOT

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

1 year

Tropical Storm Hillary is taking its toll on California solar production

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

4 years

Ladies, if he's: - not a morning person - strongest when you need him most - all over the place day to day - grown by 800MW since last August He's not your man. He's ERCOT coastal wind.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

6 months

Batteries help both resolve both the glut of midday solar and the need for expensive, inflexible fossil generation in the evening. Storage helps shift energy from when it's cheap and clean to when it's dirty and expensive.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

In case you missed it, expensive natural gas has sent western power prices soaring

Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

@SolarInMASS West natural gas prices are at post-Uri highs due to a streak of cold weather and pipeline / storage constraints. Gas generators set power prices around the clock in California this time of year, so high gas prices pass directly into power.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

Duck hunting szn

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

US wind and solar generation by state

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

$30/MMBtu+ natural gas west of the Rockies keeping wholesale power prices pinned over $300/MWh

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

US electricity markets under duress, with the most severe conditions in the heart of PJM.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

1 year

Texas solar provides a consistent 13GW boost to midday power supply before dropping off at sunset. ERCOT wind generation is much more variable, and prone to puking in afternoon and evening doldrums when demand is highest. Wind's daily dice roll is coming up snake eyes today.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

6 months

California's glut of midday solar crushes daytime power prices, cannibalizing solar's own value--as well as that of all other midday generation. Oversupply dictates that gigawatts of solar are 'curtailed' or thrown away rather than sent to the grid.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

7 months

You are hiding the returns in the post-PPA merchant tail are you not?

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

Summer is coming

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

The share of Texas electricity coming from carbon-free resources nearly doubled over the last decade, to just under 40% in 2021

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

1 year

Spicy ERCOT power prices today topping out over $2,000/MWh with more potential record-setting electricity demand. Prices will peak not when demand is highest, but when solar supply retires at sunset.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

US utility-scale solar, 2010-2021

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

10 months

US wind and solar projects. Nearly 150GW of wind, 90GW of grid-scale solar operating in the US by year-end.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

So in conclusion

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

Would you rather fight one thousand-hour 1MW battery or a thousand one-hour 1MW batteries

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

East vs. West, continued. Spot the difference.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

1 year

You may not like it, but this is what peak summer performance looks like

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

6 months

Flexibility is the name of the game. Whenever the sun shines, gas ramps down, imports flip to exports, and batteries charge. Batteries and exports are now drawing gigawatts off the grid midday, shifting surplus solar to the evening (batteries) and neighboring grids (exports).

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

Texas solar power has doubled since last August, adding more clean but variable supply to hot summer afternoons.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

5 months

Interconnection queues are now battlefields

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

Wind and solar PPA prices plummeted over the last decade

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

6 months

The California net load "duck curve" now frequently flirts with zero or negative values. On the sunniest spring days, the lower limit on net load is no longer how much renewable resource is available, but rather how much flexible generation there is to absorb it.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

1 year

California's glut of midday PV is paradoxically also bad for solar itself. Solar erodes power prices by displacing more expensive fuel-burning resources, crushing prices it its own hours of generation.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

Freezing temperatures are pushing the Eastern Interconnection to its limits. Grid operators in PJM, MISO, and SPP have all issued Emergency Energy Alerts signaling tight power supply.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

6 months

Despite negative midday prices, some gas remains online to provide reliability services as well as to respect the slow ramping, start up, and shutdown constraints of thermal generators. Gas running the gauntlet of negative prices in part reflects inadequate system flexibility.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

1 year

So in conclusion

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

PJM kicking the week off with a ✨ spicy ✨ $2,000/MWh afternoon

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

Solar erosion of midday power prices reduces solar's own value to the grid. The more standalone solar is added, the less all midday solar is worth.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

Don’t ask “what do you do?” at parties Also avoid "what's your story?" and "how do you know [host]?" Better options: - what do you make of those ERCOT RUC volumes? - how's *your* P99 wind hedge doing? [laugh nervously] - want to see this meme I--hey wait where are you going?

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

1 year

US clean power production by state

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

6 months

Negative midday power prices across much of the western US-- brought you you by mild spring demand, strong renewable output, and inflexible fossil generation!

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

@NextWaveEFT This is incorrect. Wind generation in Iowa has largely displaced coal. This dynamic directly reduced emissions from electricity generation.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

Shaping up to be a ✨ spicy ✨ summer in US power markets

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

US wind and solar power by state

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

4 years

Batteries don't care about integrating renewables ;)

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

Nearly 40% of US electricity was carbon-free in 2022. Nuclear power remains the single largest source of emissions-free electricity today. Wind, solar, and hydro now produce 20% of all utility-scale generation.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

Really looking forward to this! Excited to make new energy friends IRL

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

4 years

Wind trumps coal, American heartland edition. @SPPorg has announced they are the first U.S. RTO to have wind as their largest source of electricity.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

1 year

@TheSpursWatch

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

California battery fleet now providing more than 2,000MW of flexible power 😎

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

The California grid faces another massive challenge this evening. CAISO kept the lights on last night as electricity demand surpassed levels last seen in the August 2020 blackouts. Load is forecast to test all-time records today through Thursday.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

4 years

ERCOT expected 14GW of power plant outages in its 'extreme' winter planning scenario. By late Monday morning, more than 30GW were offline.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

4 years

ERCOT power prices for tomorrow average nearly $4,000/MWh, in what I strongly suspect is the highest day of prices in the history of any American market.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

2 years

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

1 year

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

1 year

Solar erosion of midday power prices reduces solar's own value to the grid. The more standalone solar is added, the less all solar (and all other midday generation!) is worth.

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

3 years

Batteries, lawful neutral

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Brian Bartholomew

@BPBartholomew

4 years

ERCOT printed roughly $50bn in power revenues during the Texas Freeze. Every day long or short 100MW at $9,000/MWh is $21.6m. Going to be a lot of extreme outcomes when the dust settles. A week unlike any other in ERCOT history, and hopefully the last of its kind.