Vincent Duchaine @V_Duchaine Twitter profile

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

If you've been following WU for some time, you're aware that I only engage in day trading during the FOMC meetings. Over time, we've crafted 3 key rules that have proven effective in over 95% of the past 20 meetings. Once again, applying Rules 1 and 2 in today's session has

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

We will continue to expect each bounce in BTC price to fail until there is a clear imbalance favoring higher demand over available supply.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

3 months

Not much to say other than our NYSE and NASDAQ derivative volume indicator flipped to green (usually the last signal to flip). Our option model is up, and the margin signal is about to fire. Optimistic. We are already in the market, but should increase considerably our beta on

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

2 months

The company that provided the raw data for our market breadth-related indicator wanted to charge us a five-digit sum per month, a kidney, and probably at least one or two of my kids for using their data if it was to be shared with WU members. The thing is that there was nothing

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

5 months

We hooked up our TradingView to our Twilio SMS server with alerts at $61k and $58k, the levels we are targeting. With the current price action, I would not be surprised to see them firing soon.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

4 months

Well, Bitcoin came within a hair's breadth of triggering our Twilio SMS server. Alerts are programmed for $61k and $58k. These two levels are where we think it would be worth buying the dip. Most on-chain metrics are in good shape. We will write an update tomorrow, when all

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

2 months

Option model trending up, VIX in full contango and trending down, our NYSE and Nasdaq derivative volume in the green and expanding, and our breadth indicator that is starting to slowly improve. If Powell doesn't spook the market, we could very well see good times ahead.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

5 months

Our MLDP Z-Score cooled from 3.3 standard deviations to 1.8 yesterday night when BTC went to $61k. This is a level on this indicator where most pullbacks stopped during the previous bull market. This time could be different, but...

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

5 months

Drawing from historical trends, Bitcoin is likely to encounter a 16% pullback as it attempts to surpass its previous all-time high of $68,900. Despite this pivotal moment rapidly approaching, our outlook for Bitcoin continues to be exceedingly optimistic in the mid to long term.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

5 months

It's anecdotal, but Bitcoin is at an all-time high in my base currency (Canada). For WU members, I will write a BTC update tonight once all on-chain metrics for the day are computed and updated.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

As anticipated, the BTC price reaching $42k has elevated the unrealized profit (UP) to 100%. Historically, it is around this level of UP that we start to see the illiquid supply returning to the market. 🧵

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

2 months

Not only does our Option Model continue to trend up, but our NYSE and Nasdaq Derivative volumes are improving, reaching a width (blue signal is the width value) only briefly seen in December 2023 and in the strong bull move of last summer. For this indicator to go higher, we

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

3 months

The recent unhedged signal we got was not an easy one to apply, although we did follow it. The options world was a real mess that day, pessimism was all around, and the price action was anything but euphoric. About 10 days later, we now sit at an ATH with a non-negligible gain

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

4 months

Bitcoin's Realized Value (RV) has been increasing exponentially since February 2024, reaching $27,700. Given the historical Market Value to RV ratio, which suggests a peak around 3.3 for this cycle, the current RV indicates that Bitcoin's price at its peak will be above $91k.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

Probably too soon to buy that dip. Our option model is still trending down and our margin risk indicator is still in the red. Doesn't mean we are going into the abyss, nor that we will not see any green candles.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

Our Exchange Money Flow Bottom Indicator suggests that if BTC at $38,500 was not the local bottom, we are probably not far off.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

4 months

The 4th Bitcoin halving occurred just minutes ago at 00:09 UTC. This significant milestone appeared to be so far ahead during the depths of the 2022 crypto winter. The history of Bitcoin around this event may be unclear, but over the long term, it remains highly bullish.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

5 months

We reached a new ATH after yesterday's initial failed attempt, which triggered a -5% reversal. Further corrections may loom as current price discovery shows overbought conditions. An MLDP Z-Score(Normalized) of 3.3 standard deviations marks a significant outlier, signaling

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

4 months

Bitcoin hates not having the spotlight, and at $72.5K this morning, it wants to remind us that it has been totally eclipsing all other assets for more than a decade.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

Considering how big the gap is today and how all the different VIX have risen sharply, I would be tempted to say that the only way now is down. But the fact that the strongest stocks are barely red, and that our option model, is still in the green, opens a path where we might see

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

The SKEW index collapsed by 30 pts in just 4 days. It's truly one of the strongest bear capitulation events. I wouldn't short the market right away; we have never seen a correction immediately following a 30pts cooldown on the SKEW. 🧵

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

5 months

That being said, in the history of Bitcoin in a bull market, big candles like we had today are more indicative of a bottom or a pause than of the beginning of a move down.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

4 months

We just updated our Metcalfe's Law Discount Premium model (MLDP Z-Score). This is one of our most useful tools; however, we must sadly acknowledge that the amplitude was on a downtrend, thus indicating that we were missing a part of the bigger picture.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

5 months

Previous leg up was driven by ETF supply pressure, despite sales from 1-year Hodlers. It became evident that a decrease in selling by Hodlers could lead to another rise in BTC's price. Hodlers considerably slowed down since last Friday, with the result that we now see.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

4 months

Our Option model flashed red a few weeks ago, but this was a very close call as it barely went above its threshold. However, the move we've had over the last two days is now a very convincing one. We could be about to see more volatility.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

2 months

An increasing spread between NYSE + Nasdaq derivative bullish and bearish volume, along with our Market Breadth related indicator turning down, is an encouraging sign in this boring market.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

5 months

That was quick. We wrote this post this morning when BTC was at $69k. WU members, please see our latest blog post to see what our expectations are for this pullback and what our game plan is.

Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

5 months

We reached a new ATH after yesterday's initial failed attempt, which triggered a -5% reversal. Further corrections may loom as current price discovery shows overbought conditions. An MLDP Z-Score(Normalized) of 3.3 standard deviations marks a significant outlier, signaling

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

5 months

This correction has already resulted in a 15.2% retracement from the highest daily close, which is just 1% shy of the historical average in our green zone. The $61k corresponds to this average. While $58k (-21%) and $55k (-25%) would be the other levels we would consider buying

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Our Margin risk indicator, being at the frontier of the red zone, is another sign that we are in the last sprint before a cooldown. Still confident that SPY should make new highs before it happens. This signal is the aggregation of 6 different risk indicators.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

The 1-Year HODL supply decreased by 1% of the total, representing 196,192 coins or 218 days of mining at the current rate and 1 year, 71 days post-halving. Considering that the number of newly created addresses is still very low, BTC price should have been decreasing, but it has

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Well, now it's a real, absolute new ATH for the Nasdaq. Congratulations, Nasdaq. At the worst of 2022, it seemed like you were forever broken! But today, even if two of your biggest constituents are in trouble — with Tesla having its biggest recall ever and Apple deciding to shut

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

4 months

This estimate is conservative, considering the Realized Value is likely to continue rising as we proceed along this path. We believe this still aligns with the target we published in December 2023, anticipating a peak price in the range of $144K-$200K.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

Well, the option market doesn't like this bounce. (Note: the day is not over, and data could still change)

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

Just a quick distribution analysis (2011 to 2024) to show how outstanding tonight's SKEW report is. Not all high SKEW readings immediately transform into a correction, but all considerable corrections happen at high SKEW readings.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

3 months

@eduschesne1 560 M$/4.99 = 112.2M Chickens If you make a Chicken Centipede with a Chicken length of about 1 foot (30.48 cm): 112.2M Chickens * 0.3048 m / 1000 = 34198 KM This is pretty close to Earth's Circumference (40075 km). Probably, if they remain in their box, they would actually

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

Our option model went back down considerably today. The purple line didn't cross the green one yet, but if the trend continues, it should probably do it tomorrow. This suggest that we could now soon have a setup that would allow some pullback or at least a consolidation.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

WealthUmbrella, which is currently neutral, will go net short when our option model goes into the red and will add to this short when (or if) our hedge signal triggers a sell.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

@yuriymatso I'm happy to finally see someone else who takes the 1972-1974 scenario as an analogy. Most people have eyes only for 2000-2003 or 2007-2009. Not only does 1972 present a lot more similarities from an economic standpoint, but the price action of the last two years also shares a

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

@TimmerFidelity You are right, and this is why analyzing the BTC network per the well-known Metcalfe's Law has always worked very well to identify overbought and oversold states. It's all about the price vs the amount of market participants.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

3 months

I had lost all hope of ever seeing my BABA shares in the green. I had now kind of forgotten it. Patience is the key.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Option model now trending back down and under our green line. If the trend continues, history tells us that we could see a reversal in 2-6 days.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

We don't want to sound too bearish, as our view regarding BTC is positive and we think that it will move higher later this year, but we believe we could be stuck in a boring range for a few weeks or even months, according to history.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

It might be due to the usual Christmas tree chatter about Bitcoin performance, but the number of newly created addresses with a non-zero balance is finally on the rise. This consolidation period may be approaching its end.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

Our margin indicator, which is the aggregate risk of 6 underlying proprietary signals, has now entered our red zone. This is a point that is usually followed by at least a small reversal. 🧵

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

While everybody was awaiting a pullback last week, I remained positive due to the options market positioning. Our option-driven model is now starting to point down and diverge from the S&P 500. It's too soon to tell, but this is what this model usually does before a trend change.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Newly created addresses with a non-zero balance are still declining but are approaching the zone where they usually bottom out. This correction could still last longer, but with Hodlers who have gone back (timidely) into accumulation we could soon reach supply-demand equilibrium.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

Our options model is finally showing a considerable upward curve on a day of weak rebound. Encouraging, but not yet enough to declare this pullback over.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

@saxena_puru Hi Puru, I noticed that one of our members mentioned a few words in this thread about our service (Thanks, Mark). A few years ago, you were an inspiration for our work. This led to a primarily data-driven hedge algorithm (I’m a University Professor in the field of AI) that often

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

To get such a spike in our SOPR indicator, there are either 1.) many bitcoins that were in profit and have moved, or 2.) a few very old coins that were deeply in profit and have moved. Considering that our 1 year hodl indicator hasn't changed much, scenario 2 is more likely. It's

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

I always see the SKEW not as the catalyst for a correction but as a good representation of the gas in the tank of a potential correction. When it was at an ATL last year, we knew the market couldn't go much lower, now we must acknowledge that the tank is full.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

Here are the statistics of seeing a 5%, 10%, and 20% pullback 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, and 6 months after seeing a CBOE reading higher than 150.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

Just so you know, ChatGPT isn't really into fluffiness... 😁

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

4 months

Indeed, one of our goals is to make relevant signals that give consistent readings across each Bitcoin cycle. Bitcoin supply was the key here, so here is our new indicator. (You still have access to the old version by clicking on the parameters 'see old version').

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Last year, after studying the market reaction to Powell's last six speeches, I came to three conclusions that have remained true since then. I have used these rules to play the market since. 🧵

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

5 months

@_hnwm We do have cash on the sideline (We bought the recent dips at $38,500, but we still have cash left). Anyway, my plan is to buy the next pullback. I wouldn't be surprised if we go to an ATH before pulling back, so buying now could make sense. But on the other hand, with the

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

I came across this old video today, and it's just as funny and awkward as I remember. Smart money doesn't always look smart...

Trader gets asked what the company he invested in actually does

www.youtube.com

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

Rehearsal for tomorrow? #BitcoinETF

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

To put that into perspective, this is one of the top 3 retracement moves ever recorded.Examples of similar moves include: During the Covid crash, the SKEW dropped from 142 to 113, a decrease of 29 points. In the September-October 2021 correction, the SKEW went from 162 to 130, a

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

When two lines just refuse to cross each other...

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

If this indicator continue to go down, we could very well see a pullback in the zone of 42k$ and 45k$. In our green environnement (which we are in), the typical pullback is around 16%. This could mean that would revisit 35k$-38k$ a level WU would definitely buy.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

@VolumeLeaders According to Nasdaq Data Link, the percentage for SPY of Global Retail Volume has been very consistent over the last month and a half. It averaged at around 2.5% with a very low standard deviation, so I doubt retail has been responsible for these record inflows. 12/14 - 2.36%,

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Powell's speech has shifted our Option model back into an uptrend. I assume now that we will go to ATH on the QQQ before pulling back.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

Well, the person who did this allowed us to confirm the initial direction of the move in case of ETF approval. We now know that if this turns out to be a 'sell the news' event, we should at least see some upside first.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Some of WU members may remember that when doing my prediction at the end of October about going back to ATH somewhere between Christmas and mid-January, I said I would be scared when the SKEW would reach a red line I drew? Well, we broke the line today. 🧵

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

@TheBTCTherapist Do we know what the original price of acquisition was for these Bitcoins in this very odd transaction? Trying to understand the giant spike we just had on SOPR.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

Who will be right? The median forecast for tomorrow's headline CPI is 3.3%, up 0.2% from last month. However, Trueflation, which has mostly been right on the trend in 2023, saw this in December:

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

@BCalusinski The Nasdaq Datalink Retail Trading Activity Tracker dataset will somehow allow to achieve similar goal for only 10$/month. But thanks for sharing this interesting set of data.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Our model, which simulates the options market's influences on the stock market, usually lead the S&P by 2-8 days. At this moment, this model is continuing its uptrend, suggesting that the well-anticipated pullback may still have to wait a little bit or simply be short-lived.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

@NabilBugi Outstanding was really used in the objective sense that we don't see such extreme SKEW values very often. That being said, I don't interpret such readings as positive news. The SKEW index, by itself, isn't a direct catalyst; hence, high readings may not immediately lead to market

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

This doesn't mean that a pullback is imminent, but rather that volatility could become more elevated. This implies deeper pullbacks along the road.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

Also, keep in mind that we went over this threshold for the first time on November 16, 2023, and are currently still over that value since January 31, 2024.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

The options market just did a U-turn from its position this morning. This is probably less about trend forecasting and more about protection against potential bad news from the CPI report tomorrow. Now both Bitcoin and the stock market's fate depend on governmental news.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Until we make a proper release for our WU members, here is a temporary version of our Options Model. It could be useful in this euphoric market.

WU SP500 Option Model — Indicator by WealthUmbrella

This is our Option model that simulates the market as a dynamic system that follows a second-order differential equation, where the input force that makes this inertial system move is only the Option...

www.tradingview.com

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

@saxena_puru @StockSavvyShay Just curious to hear why you are not waiting for your hedge signal for exiting your position in growth ? It seems to have work well for you in the past.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

The recent spike in our SOPR indicator has officially brought this indicator to a level historically consistent with the beginning of a cyclical bull run. That being said, four cycles don't provide enough instances to statistically draw a strong conclusion. When some of our other

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

@TheBTCTherapist After the last halving, the biggest candle we saw on the way up was around 22% on February 8th, 2021, in a price range similar to what we are in now. If this were to happen again, it would give us exactly a 'God candle'. That's the realistic euphoric scenario, but still, let's

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

@eduschesne1 Currently writing a blog post on this, but I think it defies gravity, which makes it harder to forecast the price action in the very near term. However, it is not oversold by most metrics, considering the environment we are currently in, which is somehow bullish.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Against all odds, today's job report kept the Sahm Rule recession indicator, a key metric used by the Fed, in the green. This indicator was on the brink of signaling a recession last month.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

4 months

For WU members, please note that Option data are always noisy in the morning due to their low aggregate volume. It's better to interpret The Option Model in the afternoon.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

This indicator is a normalized signal that is relatively constant across all Bitcoin history. It was one of the indicators that helped us correctly flag the November 2022 bottom.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Here is a Trading view script that help me play these rules

NASDAQ:QQQ Idea Chart Image by WealthUmbrella

www.tradingview.com

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

I am usually a lot more bull than bear. While many were calling for a pullback in November, our tools were telling us that we had more upside ahead. Now, some of them, like this one, suggest that there is a non-negligible amount of risk in being invested in the market.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

@TheBTCTherapist If you are right, I hope Bitcoin will gap over the $300K. 😅

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

The options market made another U-Turn in the last hour of trading, shifting our option model back into a downtrend. This model can sometimes lead the market by as much as six days once the blue line crosses the green one. My guess is we go to ATH before pulling back. We'll see.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

@CathieDWood @PrestonPysh @ARKInvest I did love the show and think that your view on Bitcoin is always very insightful in the ocean of misinformation we live in. That being said, sadly this time a quick simulation told me that this statement about a 98% cash and 2% BTC strategy isn't accurate. There are so many

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

if I were the stock market, I'd aim for an all-time high.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

@Mr_Derivatives It's hard to exit perfectly at the top and buy at the bottom. But being you, I would still wait 2-3 days before concluding anything. Our option model flirts with the "this leg is done" line, and it is rarely wrong and SPY is on it's channel resistance line since the last 2 days.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

This doesn't mean that we will necessarily enter into a doozy of a correction, but that we are probably close to a point of reversal that would at least see some retracement or consolidation.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

9 months

Epic fight on the resistance line on SPY this morning. Will we break it?

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

The good news is that the number of newly created addresses with a non-zero balance, although on a small downtrend, remains relatively elevated, which should support the beginning of this distribution phase.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

2 months

@Iwannabeontheb2 I have the best words (said with a Trump voice and gesture): Pernicious, Ineffable, Obfuscate, Pulchritude, Quintessential! I will continue to try to use them at the appropriate times! Challenge: try to use 'Serendipity' in one of your future tweets.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

7 months

Spot Bitcoin ETF has been approved. #BitcoinETF

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

This time is counted between the first SKEW reading >150 and when we reach a 5%, 10%, or 20% retracement (not when this move down starts). It does take some time to reach -10% or -20%, so it's no surprise that there is a 0% chance to see a -10% or -20% retracement within a month.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Rule no. 1: The move that the market makes at 2:00 pm is only noise. No matter what direction the market moves at 2 pm, it should come back to where it was at 1:59 pm around the first minute of Powell's press conference.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

9 months

@StockSavvyShay Probably less well-known, but used by most of these companies is Vertiv Holding, which provides cooling systems for data/AI centers. It trades at around 2.4X with a non-negligible $6.8 billion in revenue and approximately 20% annual growth.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

Caught in a dual narrative, the market treads a fine line. A strong economy risks inflation and Fed hikes, while a weak one signals recession and earnings drop. The latest job report strikes a balance – not too hot or cold, hinting at a soft landing or delayed recession.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

6 months

@griffithbrand We re-entered UPRO (3X leverage SPY) during the fall correction and exited (SMS alert provided) about a week ago on January 19th, so we did capture that parabolic move. We also said on December 29th that we were expecting the market to go down, and that it was a great place to

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

@unusual_whales My personal experience is that the size/fanciness of the house is not inversely correlated with happiness, but rather it is simply not correlated at all after a certain level.

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Vincent Duchaine

@V_Duchaine

8 months

@Iwannabeontheb2 The model is the blue line. It makes a one-day prediction of where the market should go if we consider only the pressure applied by the Option market. The two other lines are simply EMA 5 and 10. I am not done backtesting it, so this is why it's not an official release.

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