Yuriy Matso @yuriymatso Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Yuriy Matso

@yuriymatso

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Are you a futures day trader? Leverage a profitable long-short algorithmic strategy. Results here:

Los Angeles, CA

https://t.co/FLUbL2i8Oh

Joined January 2013

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

3 months

When I began my algorithmic strategy development journey years ago, I saw someone showcase a $700K net profit from their long-short strategy over 7 years. Today, I have my own strategy with $775K in net profit since 2018. That's a solid benchmark to measure any strategy against.

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

7 months

CSCO vs NVDA 2000 vs 2024

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

2 years

#SPX , monthly, log-scale 100-year view

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

2 years

The options traders have bought way too many puts recently expecting the 2022 bear market to continue its drop in 2023. They know that recession is around the corner. Fed is raising rates into recession. Layoffs are happening daily. Yet, SPX refuses to drop... I wonder why.

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

2 years

Large institutional traders bought the record number of put options last week. If today's bullish reversal continues during the next several sessions, they will have to 'cover' by going long the stocks and/or indices. This could lead to a massive shortsqueeze.

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

2 years

#SPX , daily 2008 vs 2022

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

2 years

#SPX Given today's price action & a potential invalidation of the 2008 analog (see my prior post), I decided to review the last 100 years of SPX history to see if the 2022 bear market might resemble any bullish setups. This is the only 'sort of' similar bullish analog I found.

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

2 years

#SPX , weekly This indicator is about to provide a new Buy signal on S&P500 if SPX moves up during the next 2-3 weeks. The indicator is based on 2 weekly SMAs: 14 and 41. It has delivered a perfect track record -- 100% win rate -- since the 2009 bottom.

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

12 days

#SPX This is awkward. 2yr-30yr yield curve is about to un-invert.

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Yuriy Matso

2 years

#NDX This is the irony of this sell off -- Fed members decided it was not ethical to own individual stock holdings right at the top; hence, they sold them in September / November 2021. And you thought timing market tops was impossible. lol [Chart shows my Nasdaq model signals]

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Yuriy Matso

3 years

Whenever the S&P500 Real Earnings Yield drops below zero, the recession usually follows. This key indicator is at the lowest level in 70 years. As I mentioned before, I see a lot of complacency here in the U.S. Most experts believe that the ongoing "correction" is bottoming...

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

3 years

$TSLA 2020 vs $AAPL 2021

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

3 months

#SPX , monthly 100 years of price action

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Yuriy Matso

2 years

#ES_F , 1d Key observations: 1. ES has potentially formed a massive Bear Trap. Will be confirmed if ES can move above 3800. 2. Seasonality favors year end rally 3. Institutional traders are heavily short -- a short covering can provide fuel to the rally

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Yuriy Matso

3 years

#NQ_F , 1d 2018 vs 2022 Nasdaq formed a double top in October 2018. Nasdaq formed a double top in January 2022. Fed was the reason for the sell off in 2018. Will Fed ignite another sell off in 2022?

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Yuriy Matso

5 years

$VIX Somebody is betting $5m on a market crash into mid February via VIX calls. Total of 100,000 of 20 Feb'20 calls purchased today at $0.49/c.

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

4 years

$SPX 2009 vs 2020 SPX found support at its 200d MA twice in '09 and staged a massive rally during the next several months. SPX found support at its 200d MA twice during the last several weeks. The longer SPX stays above its 200d MA, the higher the odds of a bullish continuation.

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Yuriy Matso

2 years

#SPX A golden cross. There've been 13 crosses since 1991 with 12 winners. Win rate is 92%. It doesn't mean, however, that SPX will go straight up from here. In several cases (e.g., 2019), the price dropped 4%-5% but then eventually went up again. So, will it be 14:1 or 13:2?

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Yuriy Matso

2 years

If earnings remain the same, the market might fall additional 40%. If, however, earnings contract, we might expect -50% or -60% drop from today for the PE to reach the bear market median.

@LeutholdGroup

The Leuthold Group

2 years

The Norm S&P 500 PE closed yesterday at 23.4x— exactly ten points above the median of the last 12 bear market lows. We know that “valuations aren’t timing tools,” but bulls should be cognizant that if the market were to bottom here, it would represent the “priciest” bear market.

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Yuriy Matso

2 years

#NQ_F , 1m 2000 vs 2008 vs 2022 I call these Supply Walls. Both 2000 and 2008 bear markets started with these Supply Walls. A similar Supply Wall has *POTENTIALLY* formed in 2022. To invalidate this setup, NQ needs to close April above 15300 level (the Feb and March highs).

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Yuriy Matso

2 years

#ES_F , daily Traps... Bull traps worked like magic in this bear market. Will the October bear trap work for bulls? We'll know the answer soon.

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Yuriy Matso

4 years

Dow Jones, 1d Dow Jones has been consolidating for the last 5 weeks. Hence, we can expect a new big directional move starting next week. Which way will it go? Depending on your bias, you can see Dow Jones forming either a Rounding Top or a Bull Flag. I prefer to react.

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Yuriy Matso

2 years

#ES_F , daily Deja vu.

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Yuriy Matso

2 years

I checked the data going back 1971 for the following scenarios: 1. NDX moves up 3%+ 2. NDX is up 3%+ next day Almost 100 occurrences 1. NDX moves up 3%+ 2. NDX is down -5% next day Only 2 occurrences (2008 and 2020). Conclusion: today's price action is NOT typical.

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

2 years

#ES_F If you are a swing trader, make sure to track the 100d MA of the S&P500 Advancing - Declining Issues indicator. It has correctly 'predicted' the last 3 bottoms.

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Yuriy Matso

4 years

$SPX and $RUT Bearish divergence between Russell and S&P500 was formed prior to the February top, which was a big warning sign. What do we see now? No divergence at all. The ongoing rally is much broader (read: healthier) compared to the January-February 2020 one.

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Yuriy Matso

6 years

What if... Nobody sees this coming.

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Yuriy Matso

2 years

#ES_F , 1d Is it happening?

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Yuriy Matso

21 days

#SPX , monthly 100 year view. What if SPX breaks out above the red line, just as it did above the yellow one?

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

2 years

#SPX This is the first bullish divergence between SPX and SPXA100d. All prior SPX lows were CONFIRMED by this indicator, however, the most recent lows were not. The next 2-3 sessions will determine whether this is a start of another bear market rally or just a dead cat bounce.

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

2 years

#NQ_F , 1d Next time they tell you that lines don't matter...

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Yuriy Matso

5 years

$ES 3m chart. Trading tip: Remember last week's sell off on NO NEWS? Now we know -- smart money started to sell last Thursday. For the future: if you see a big sell off on NO NEWS, pay attention.

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@yuriymatso

Yuriy Matso

5 years

We are in a very strong bull market phase now. One day, however, it will peak and that WILL BE an opportunity of a lifetime to short and profit! And I WILL BE ready because my market model has never missed big SELL signals! Just as it never missed big BUY signals!

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Yuriy Matso

4 months

#SPX , quarterly 100 years of price action.

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Yuriy Matso

3 years

#RTY_F If a recent break out turns into a Bull Trap... Conditions for this scenario: - RTY drops below 2350 - RTY continues to slide down towards 2125 - RTY drops below 2125, which will definitely trigger a much wider sell off What do you think are the odds of this scenario?

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