$SPX It is time...
+375pts in only 3 weeks and I am officially trimming my $SPX long position from the exact low of 4105
Everything about this trade setup was posted on X for free & in real-time
I think I am due for a new pinned post 🚂
I just finished back-testing all of the most popular trading indicators over the past 25 years
The results were shocking:
‘Buy and Hold’ outperformed every major indicator by a landslide
Until I found this strategy(Thread) 👇
$SPX "Big Short" Entered @ 4120 (1/2 Size)
1st Target --> 3950
2nd Target --> 3500
Final Target --> Under 3200 by Jan of 2023 (could be sooner)
This will be the most difficult trade of my career. I will provide updates on this twitter account
The 2 Companies that Own the Entire World (Pt 1)
BlackRock and Vanguard have created one of the greatest monopolies in history
They played the system so good that the government cannot even break them up
Here’s how they did it 👇
$SPY A future 7-day fractal model I have predicts upside early this week (Purple) before we fall off a cliff
Notice how it predicted the sell-off before Jackson hole
I will start to share more of my "advanced" data-related posts, as things are about to get very interesting...
Nasdaq is now the most overbought since right before Volmaggedon in 2018
I did a 7-year correlation analysis and found that every time Nasdaq has hit 80+ on the Daily RSI, it has led to a correction
The smallest? -3.94%
The largest? -30.50%
Here's how I plan to trade it 👇
You are being watched...
Bloomberg created a scanner that scrapes data from Twitter to find stocks with the highest 'social velocity'
Basically, firms can find tickers that are generating 'hype' before they become mainstream
The catch?
It costs $27K/year to access data like
2023 will provide one of the greatest opportunities to create wealth via the stock market
Solely from a major $SPY bottom forming
I will be adding my “Big Short 2.0” position likely later this month/Jan
Then, ride the market down until it is time to load tons of longs
$SPX 4700+ by February '24
Current price: 4229
My "SweetSpot" long entry is 4160-4200 if we can get it by EOW
I predicted this entire down-leg sequence from July 18th--Now it's almost time for a lot of upside into EOY, once this correction finishes soon
Are you ready? 😁
$SPX Big Short (Full Size) @ 4245
Final target is 3200 by end of year
I will sell 3/4 ~3500 (will share the exact spot as we get closer)
August will be a month of back and forth so I will be patient (all of my puts are Nov+)
$SPX Time to retire my "All pullbacks are just buying opportunities for now" quote
It has served me well since October, but all good things must come to an end
I have a reversal range between Jan 22nd-24th and plan to short with a 45xx target
Enjoy ATH's while it lasts 🐶
$SPX The current 5100-5200 range is a high and should lead to a drop into 45xx by May at the latest
My preferred sequence:
5100/5200 —> 4800 into Ides of March —> lower-high of 5000 —> 45xx
I entered $SPXL (3x Bull ETF) during the Fall correction of ‘23
And now it is almost
$SPX The window is here
It is a gift to see 4105 right now
Keep in mind: With the weekend ahead, and a bearish daily/weekly close, we can still see a "final flush" and subsequent daily candle wick Monday/Tuesday.
Regardless, accumulation window between today and the next 2
For those who did not short a couple weeks ago (myself included):
We are now approaching the best short-side R/R for possibly the rest of the year
And it is a retest of 2-month-long distribution on $QQQ
After this downside move plays out, I'm bullish for the rest of 2024
BIG NEWS (Read below)👀
I created a $SPY volatility algo that, during its beta testing, has generated all of twitter my call-outs in the past 3 months. So yes, all of those 300%, 400%, 500% trades were a direct result of my algo.
And now, I plan to share it (Read thread) 👇
$SPX Remember the final pullback that I was looking for?
It is here
And it's almost time to load up
The Polar Express was nice enough to make one more stop 🚂
Soon.
Big pickup in longer-dated $VIX calls today, paired with short-term (March) $VIX puts
This is consistent with my thesis of the $SPX rally topping out in the 5100-5200 range, followed by a larger, healthy, correction into early Q2
Basically, this uptick in recent vol
$SPX Do you hear that?
It's the sound of a Big Short setup approaching soon
I haven't swung short since September '23
Almost time to go back to my roots
Like my X bio says, I'm a 'Vol Chaser' at heart :)
Never Doubt Ben Again
The next swing setup I am preparing for will be 10x bigger than this
It will be the last big setup I share for a while
It is coming in a few weeks
Watch closely 👀 $SPY $SPX
$SPX Are you enjoying the show as much as I am? 😁
If you missed my last tweet at lows, there will be one more opportunity to hop on the train soon
And then it's a Polar Express to 4700+ 🚂
$SPX This rally is the finale before a major sell-off
I have been adding short exposure throughout this year in my LT account and recently took some shorter-term puts in my quarterly/swing accounts
The past week has been an absolute gift, even though it may not seem that way
For me to publicly release my "Big Short" entry, I need to see a final rush upwards to squeeze out the last of the shorts from this rally
This is what happened end of March 👇
I have been loading $VIX, but am looking for a near-perfect entry on $SPY to share here. Soon 👀
I have initiated a short position in $AAPL @ $167.44
Target: Sub 120 (by end of year)
Big money is dumping before your eyes. Time is my friend -- Let the move play out
They will call for $SPX "All Time Highs" soon
But where were they when I called $4160 back in the $3800's?
Everyone was bearish and called me insane, yet my target just hit 🎯
Let the run-up continue, but remember you will call me insane again soon when it is time to short👀
5/5 So, I will do my final phase of beta testing with 5 candidates (like this entire thread to apply).
If the last phase of testing is a success, I will create a private group for all those interested in receiving this data with my daily market analysis/strategies.
$SPX The last time the weekly RSI closed this high was right before the Covid crash
Personally, I am still trading 1-3 day setups until I get my signal to short for a large move
It's crucial to compartmentalize your bias to prevent it from clouding your near-term judgment.
Finally, the development that I was looking for
Huge bid in both longer-dated and shorter-dated $VIX calls today, per my BBG image below
$VIX is elevated with both $SPX & $QQQ in clear daily distribution, testing key directional pivot levels
It took a week longer than
$SPX Expect a bottom today or tomorrow, likely here between 4265-4285
We just entered a critical turn date range
Some of my indicators are very oversold, so I expect a nice 3-5 day pop
$SPX Finally all out of my last runners :)
Called the exact 5min candle that started the squeeze
Even predicted the squeeze before it happened
All for free
If you have been listening to me, you already know what is next. Enjoy
@MrZackMorris
This is the week for $CLOV — I just did an extensive DD Analysis on it in my vid—> would love it if you and
@chamath
checked it out! PS. I pronounced your name correctly Cha-MOTH 😉
$SPX Almost time to load up—have patience
This is the same distribution breakdown that we saw in June ‘22, as I highlighted in the below post
The last train stop will come in the next couple sessions
This is the ‘final capitulation’ phase. I will post when I enter
Soon 🚂
Bears took their last opportunity to start a pullback
This also means that the final opportunity to go long before an EOY rally is approaching
But first, I want you to look at the 2 pictures below:
The 1st picture is $SPX June of 2022
The 2nd picture is $SPX right now
This
$SPX Notice when I trimmed 1/2 of my “Big Short”
@ 3497 after a large gap-down from CPI. Everyone was extra bearish at that time
I now have been riding short term calls to my desired 3800-3850 range
The next move after this up leg is going to be one for the history books 👀
Bears took their last opportunity to start a pullback
This also means that the final opportunity to go long before an EOY rally is approaching
But first, I want you to look at the 2 pictures below:
The 1st picture is $SPX June of 2022
The 2nd picture is $SPX right now
This
$SPX I drew this path on July 18th... And just trimmed my recent short for 150pts
I have traded the entire sequence so far, including 2 bounces
Everything was provided for free on my Twitter
There's 2 substantial moves left this year--Are you ready to catch them with me? 👀
Investor sentiment often acts as a contrarian signal
Yet sentiment has remained excessively bullish for a while and there has been no drop in the market
Here’s why that is + Info on my next big trade setup 👇
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
$SPX Key concept: Look at the large gap-up from the overnight session
This is a post-OPEX release from Ides of March
In the short-term, any dips between here (5155) and 5140 are tactical long opportunities
In order for me to short, I need to see either 1. the gap from today
$SPX I just closed the final 1/2 of my bull-call-spread position
4105 --> 4555 in ~3 weeks
Although there is still more upside into Q1, I rather not deal with the early December chop and prefer to lock in profits now
I hope you enjoyed your ride on the Polar Express🚂
Michael Burry has posted bearish cryptic tweets for years and deletes them soon after, yet will be praised if a big downside move happens
I have given you my exact short entries and PT's after riding this rally up
Will I get my own book next year or go down with my ship?
$SPX Everything is going according to plan 🔮
There is only one more shift that needs to take place for me to finally enter my short position 🔜
Let's see if you have been reading my recent X posts/replies 📒
What is the final variable? 👇
$SPX Watch the gap tomorrow 🔓
>3922 is Bullish + continuation means round 2 of my squeeze
If you thought today's squeeze call was good, if we get this setup it will be 3x better :)
1st Picture: 2018 Correction $SPX
2nd Picture: 2022 Correction $SPX
2018 saw rate hikes (.25) Dec 17th
2022 FOMC this week with expected rate hikes (.25)
2018 crash began week of OPEX
2022 This is OPEX week
I guarantee no one else is talking about this😁 $SPY
I have been watching dark pools for a long time. I have NEVER seen a singular print this large during market hours. A massive move is approaching for $SPY
$SPX Nothing has changed 🐶
"All pullbacks are just buying opportunities for now"
However
That will change soon
And we will see 45xx again
Your dog can enjoy the last leg of upside for now
More info 🔜
$SPX $4100 range approaching as expected :)
No changes in my thesis since my last tweet
I will give some insight once we are in the 4100-4200 range, as early 2023 will be one for the history books
$SPX Macro Path Update:
Here's the path that I drew on July 18th
We are at a major crossroad right now. Either 4265-4285 produces a ST bounce into early next week, or we flush straight to 4170/4220 where the final low should be
This correction should be over within 2 weeks max
$SPY I have a mini turn day on Sep 2nd
Ideally we selloff into the end of week and receive a relief bounce into my main turn day of Sep 9th
If we run up into Sep 9th, then we will begin to see the real power of this downward move sometime mid September
This is Key 🔓
$SPX Short zone between 5218-5228
As long as price remains contained, 5180 is next and then much lower after
15m stop above the zone for me - Over and it squeezes
$SPY The bare-minimum requirement of my reversal cycle (2-3 days) has completed
Since I have shared it publicly before, here is how I derived it:
Every 18 days there is a change of trend. I have data that goes back to Jan of 2022 to support this -- it has a 95.2% accuracy rate
$SPX +200pts in only 4 sessions🎤⬇️
Not only that, I nailed the exact low @ 4105, real-time here on Twitter (X)
I think I should take a break from this app now😅
All of my extra analysis and trades are in my Discord, you can find me there. There is a free trial link in my bio
Here's what $SPX has done, since I closed my long position for +450pts 2 weeks ago (Hint: nothing)👇
From my last Tweet: " I rather not deal with the early December chop and prefer to lock in profits now"
Timing 🎯
Next sequence coming 🔜
Unfortunately, we a nearing a period where many traders will reach max frustration
The last couple days is nothing compared to the difficulty that September will bring, based on my volatility model/turn date frequencies
$SPY Tip: Trade less, trust me
$SPX The Most Important Trade Sequence of the Year is Approaching
Here is How I Plan to Trade it🎥👇
0:00 - 0:53 Intro + Opening Remarks
0:53 - 4:10 Review of Trades + Upcoming Short Setup
4:11 - 6:19 Bloomberg Terminal Special Indicator Analysis
6:19 - 7:05 Brief Summary
$SPX The only level that I am focussed on: 4848
I need to see sellers step in and take price below this level within my reversal range (today/tomorrow) to warrant a short entry
Under, and I can assess an exact entry point
Over, and I am not interested in participating yet
$QQQ Path Update:
Retest and rejection of the 2-month-long distribution zone
This seems a bit premature to me, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a FOMC fake-out to the upside tomorrow
This would act as bull exhaustion before lower
Price is still contained in the Bear-flag
$SPY $552 held today, so that's good enough for me to keep holding full size long exposure
Thanks for all the positivity in the comments (heavy sarcasm), makes me reconsider posting my macro trades on this app with all the 1m chart watchers constantly nagging
$SPY I am long here in the 553's
Big rally soon, assuming this area holds
I took August 16th calls and plan to hold for a bit, pending $SPX can hold 552 on the 1H
This pullback is premature. There will be a time in the Fall for a true fall, but not yet
$SPY I am long here in the 553's
Big rally soon, assuming this area holds
I took August 16th calls and plan to hold for a bit, pending $SPX can hold 552 on the 1H
This pullback is premature. There will be a time in the Fall for a true fall, but not yet
$SPX Can't make this up...
Look at my boxes. All of those were drawn before price/time reached those levels (Check Wednesday vid/tweets)
Not only that, I predicted a fake gap fill on the first move up
How about that? 🤝
$SPX This breakout will reverse into EOW to fill the double gap either by Fri or very early next week.
This should be the last fake-out amidst recent consolidation that we see before a down-leg.
Current price of SPX: 4158
$SPX Added the other 1/2 of my short position here @ 4510, per plan (Full Size)
1st 1/2 add: 4480
2nd 1/2 add: 4510
Price still can shoot for the TL convergence above (~4520), although I expect next week to begin a downside move into EOM
Target is still under Aug 18th lows
$SPX Gap-Bait-Pop, brought to you by my 4848 level
This is the exact same setup as Dec 20th
And I caught both (see below)
Should I create an Edu video on this topic, here on X?
Time to make a big bet...
$QQQ will be on its way to 500, post $NVDA earnings today
Current price: 471
I've seen this setup numerous times. I will make a more in-depth post later today when I have more time
Thought I'd share my thoughts here on X before
465-470 is key
For those that don't know
I created an hour-long video with 75% of the variables used in my "Big Short" thesis (~30)
$SPX closed @ 4280 at the time of recording, so it includes a throwback into public sentiment
One day in the future I will release it to my loyal followers :)
$SPX Shhh... The Fed continues to 'secretly' provide liquidity to the markets through BTFP 🤫
Originally, this was used to hold the markets stable doing the SVB fiasco in March, yet the $$$ keeps climbing
More fuel to the rally 🚂
$SPY Watch the gap that forms tomorrow and Friday
This is setting up for a bear-bait close + a convergence with my reversal date range
This typically means we see a gap-up and aggressive continuation the same day
$SPX Current price 3959
I am back.
Watch as all your bearish friends suddenly switch to long after getting wiped out on the entire way up
They will be the last to change their mind before it is time for history
More to come soon…
$SPX Big reversal date approaching —> Friday, July 21st
I consider this date to be a ‘triple-threat,’ since there are 3 variables that converge (2 daily cycles + 1 weekly cycle)
I took a long setup from the C&H last week and will be looking to flip short—Update on that soon👇
$SPX Almost +150pts from my entry (Bottom-tick) 😁
If you missed the lows: Bears have one final opportunity to start a pullback from around here. It has to start soon or else the market will just continue on its way to 4700 🚂
$SPY You can’t even script this accuracy
✅Box Bounce
✅Gap fill (with continuation)
✅Gapped up above my level
✅Same day as my turn date
✅All within a 2 day time window
✅Calls loaded from $390-$395
✅Trimmed “Big Short” positions
Insane.
$SPY Today had the one of the most active dark pool sessions I have ever seen.
-$7.1B of accumulation at the $470.60 level
-A singular print for $1.9B just hit the tape AH at $466
A large move is coming...
$SPX More upside, right on schedule
Remember, my target is > 4500 by or slightly after Labor Day weekend
If price & time can both hit, then there will be an amazing short opportunity for 200-300pts
A critical time period is approaching
$SPX Notice how price held 4848
As I mentioned yesterday, I would not short unless sellers stepped in and brought SPX under
Instead of hopping in short just because 'time' matched my criteria, I based my potential entry on a key pivot level convergence (Time + Price)
By doing
$AAPL Cutting another 1/3 of original short position here @ $140.80
Only have 1/3 runners left
$167.44 —> $140.80 in less than 2 months
“Big Short” major trim coming up soon
Risk Management and Precise Entries EDU 🎥
While I wait for an ideal $SPX short entry-point, here is an example of how I quantify risk, based on a trade thesis
Basically, if you struggle knowing where/when to apply a stop-loss on any of your trades, this video is for you
1:44
4/5 How this relates to YOU
I know what setups work for me and it has proven to be highly lucrative, especially in current volatile periods (as you can see with all of my past tweets).
But, I want to see if others can understand how to use it as well :)
$SPX Longs to EOM @ ~4330
Right in the middle of the zone that I provided in my last tweet
Notice the numerous fake-outs to the upside? This is a common trait of accumulation phases that shakes out longs before the eventual move
Rode it +100pts down. Now it's time to go up.
$SPX ~3850 hit, despite lots of bearish sentiment throughout the past week
Here is where it gets interesting: We are at a cross-road for a move to 4100 or 3400
Bears need to act soon for it to be the latter, otherwise the squeeze continues
Comments are turned off to focus on my short.
Everyone has their own opinions about where the market will go. I do not need any distractions, especially right now. Choose what you want to do with the above info.
April through June will be big.
I am back from my break :)
The next 3 weeks will be pivotal for my $SPY thesis
Expect a lot of “chop” that angers both sides — The choppy moves will have a nice range, but may seem illogical
The key date is September 9th 🗓
Things will be much clearer after
3/5 The use-cases of this algo are highly malleable, so not only can it predict high probably bounce levels (with very small risk ranges), it also can provide $SPY 'chop' ranges to scalp between.
When these ranges are broken, long setups emerge
2/5 The usability of this algo is extremely complex and will be worthless to the average retail trader if used alone.
The precision of levels and timing was fine-tuned by countless hours of screen time and backtesting.
However, I can guide users in the correct direction
$SPX And 2nd target has now been satisfied (~4340)
Big decision time:
The next 3 sessions will provide insight on if we get a lower-low or higher-low before a major rally into EOY
I will provide my thoughts in video-format on Twitter today
And yes, it will be a ‘Major Rally’
$SPX Here's the bounce that I was waiting for, per my reversal date yesterday
Minor resistance at 4310, which, once broken, should lead to ~4340
This move will provide insight on when the last leg to the downside will take place and if it will be a lower low or higher low