Pretending its gone doesn't actually make it go away. It's like closing your eyes so the monster won't see you.
Me, honestly I'm just some dick with a phone.
I think KP.3 which has Q493E but not R346T causes quite a significant wave in summer.
You'll start seeing R346T flatten out in a few weeks and Q493E hit 50% around June 17th according to my fag packet.
So we get a May KP.2 surge and then an immediate June/July KP.3 surge.
Nice
Quite important this Tweet.
L452R was a bad mutation in Delta. It is antibody evasive.
Omicron didn't have it.
Until now.
In the past few weeks we have seen THREE separate sublineages of BA.2 emerge each with a different AA mutation at site 452. Independantly.
Israel were the first Country to tell us the Pfizer Vaccine was waning, while the UK & USA desperately tried to tell us it wasn't. They were the first country to rollout boosters.
They are also the first country to directly link Covid-19 Liver failure in Children to Covid19.
Explain to me like I'm 5 please
Average Flu season 11,000 deaths a year.
UK currently running at 800 COVID19 deaths a week or 41,600 a year.
So how is 41,600 Covid deaths less than 11,000 Flu deaths
And what planet is Jenny Harries living on
@CMO_England
Finland's epidemic 24 Nov 2023: amount of virus in wastewater looks to have peaked but remains at a very high level. Daily C19 deaths are close to all-pandemic highs. Excess deaths of 5-9 year olds are marking a new record for the pandemic period.
1/x
I'm struggling with these Long Covid numbers. Say it's running at 15% then you'd expect about 1 in 7 people to have it. Even if it was as low as 5% that's 1 in 20.
I know nobody with it. I know nobody who knows anybody with it. So in my small circle 400ish people are LC Free.
If anyone is wondering where BA.4 sits when it comes to immune evasiveness, compared to other variants of Omicron, then here is a hint,
The Top Right Corner of this chart is the Worst Spot.
The success of BA.2.86 will be entirely down to the fact it is highly immune evasive.
It doesn't matter of the XBBs are faster to infect people if once they're inside our antibodies boot them back out within days.
When BA.2.86 infects you it could be infective in you for weeks.
Covid in August. Just about every country in the world, at the same time, all at once, in every region. And they think its EG.5.1 or immunity waning even though every country has a different immunity landscape. And I'm on a six week summer (semi) break laughing my nuts off.....
Morning.
Remember you can't take flowers into hospital when visiting patients due to hygiene regulations, but you can take as much Covid in as you want. In fact the NHS will even give you some for free when you leave.
Do you see the problem my astronomical friend
@ShaunLintern
This is the most serious and reasonable I have been on here for a long long time.
I'll tell you why.
I am genuinely worried to death about what's happening.
Sometimes i start to doubt myself about being covid (over)cautious. Then i remember we've had over a dozen major waves in the last four years and i've never been infected 🤣🤣 so i think i'll stick with it thanks.
Dear Media and
@pritipatel
We don't need to make women "feel" safer, we need to stop men attacking them so they "are" safer. Women aren't suffering some sort of mass hysteria on this, they are being attacked on the street and killed.
Please stop trying to spin the problem.
We KNOW the Bradford school hepa trial went well, so why the flying fuck is everyone denying it and hiding behind "lets wait for peer review" (peer review doesnt useually take over a fucking year by the way).
Just implement air filtration in schools now, how fucking hard is it.
I spoke to
@bphillipsonMP
recently on the radio.
Here is how it went:
Me - what you gonna do to reduce school absences?
BP - have breakfast clubs and councillors.
Me - what about cleaning the air ?
BP - we need new schools and to wait for a peer review for HEPA.
Awesome.
For those of you out there who aren't really boring science folk as well as BA 2.86 (which sgould really be called Pi because its not BA.2 or Omicron), we also now have a massively mutated BA.5 that has popped up out of nowhere.
Now I see people are trying to claim that the new possible adenovirus type hepatitis causing virus in Scotland was probably caused by lockdown and emerged because children were not mixing enough to build immunity.
Yes she actually typed that outloud on paper.
Genuinly insane.
BA.2.86
They said it wasn't fast & probably couldn't compete with the XBBs, but its already beating them.
They're saying that prior xbb infection will protect us, but it doesn't seem to. (Bodes badly for xbb vax)
They claim it doesn't make you very ill. I suspect they're wrong
BA.2 with the mutation S:L452Q in the USA
To give you an idea of the speed of this, in the City of New York, it has gone from ZERO to 14% of all cases in 3 weeks.
Eric is genuinely angry. He's not panicking, he is just angry. WHY ? Because he honestly doesn't like seeing people die because of avoidable stupidity.
I totally agree with him.
Eric is a good man.
⚠️Damnit folks--📌DEATHS DOUBLED, 📌HOSPITAL TRIPLED, 📌EMERGENCY ROOM VISITS QUADRUPLED--we are in a sharp surge in ER visits (4x), hospital admissions (3x), and even deaths (2x) due to
#COVID19
. It's in the damn published data--but NOBODY in the media is talking about this
Lots & Lots of people who've been saying BA.2.86 was probably nothing to worry about are going to come out over the next few weeks and say that BA.2.86 is actually going to be really really bad...
...but nobody could have anticipated it...
Tell them i said Hi will ya...
Worldwide i'm seeing two or three new BA.2.86 sequences being found every hour (excluding the england cluster)
Sweden, France, Gauteng, Ohio, Colorado, Denmark, Scotland all in the last three hours.
@lorrainemking
Pretty sure that in real life Nana couldn't care less about any of the Royals ? But that girl will say anything for money like the rest of GBNews 🤣🤣
People at ZOE right now really wanting to publish today's number but too scared to type it.....
It takes a LOT of cases to make a 14day average jump like it did yesterday
This Pirola bollocks. If the wastewater readings are not elevated by changes in measurement methodology or by an increase in gastrointestinal shedding then you really really are fucked.
You guys do see that right ?
@DavidJoffe64
Oh i know it's out there. Nobody i knew had colitis until my dad caught it. First time i saw a magnolia tree i thought it was unique then i noticed they were actually everywhere. Point is why is nobody talking about it or even aware it exists in the general population.
Quick Expainer.
There are a couple of mutations on XBBs newer kids giving it higher immune evasion. They were nicknamed FLIP & give the virus big growth advantages.
Many thought the XBBs FLIP kids would stop BA.2.86 growing.
But now BA.2.86 is adopting the FLIP mutes itself.
India records 339 fresh COVID-19 cases- clear indication that we r seeing a surge
Our reluctance to accept it as such (surge) will harm the vulnerable more as we continue to not report optimally
@RajlabN
@RamblingBrook
@outbreak_india
via
@ETHealthWorld
The great man himself
@BallouxFrancois
repeatedly said that if covid was causing long term damage to the immune system we'd be seing a rise in TB, but we weren't, so it wasn't. And
@Daltmann10
et al agreed with him.
Me ? Oh I just sighed & went for a walk.
For
@10downing
street to claim that this cluster in the South West is due to it not having been hit as much by covid previously as opposed to the Immensa scandal is just ridiculous.
Looking at Test Positivity this is their FIFTH wave of Covid
BA.2.86 sequences coming in thick and fast now. Possibilities are its spreading, or we're finding more with Artic primer 5 or those catching it are being hospitalised, or they've been sitting on the samples.
BA.2.86 with S:L455S has twice the growth advantage of BA.2.86 without S:L455S
Which actually doubles its global growth advantage to c.144%. Which is nice
Consider that in December BA.1* had an advantage of 254%
BA.2.86* is getting there and IMHO WILL cause a BA.1 level event
When deciding if your child is too unwell to go to school, one of the key symptoms to look out for is a temperature of 38°C or above.
Much-loved family GP
@ChristmasRowena
shares her advice on how to make your decision 👇
Read
@NHSuk
's guidance here:
So according to The Telegraph we have all lost our immunity to the common cold over the last 18 months, but we have all been immune to Covid since April.
Pirola. If it was enteric we'd be hearing a lot more noise about people suffering from the shits, & we're not. If it's hanging in the gut it's not killing host cells.
But what if something's changed to allow this enveloped virus to stabilise in water, & we all slept through it?
We are coming to the bit in the disaster movie where everything scientists have warned about, from climate change, to water and food supply, and disease are all starting to happen....
646 covid deaths reported today. Add 40 for Scotland thats 686.
yes its a catch up probably but by the time they finish balancing the books it will still be over 300 a day.
Sometimes the Covid Cautious among us just have to admit we lost the fight. Not enough people listened. We weren't effective enough. People want to pretend it's just not happening. Shrug.
Quite important Tweet
Last Oct/Nov before I left for Greenland there was a "Super Cold" circulating in the UK. People were getting REALLY ill, but it wasn't Covid
It is still happening now. With both Colds, Norovirus, maybe Adenovirus too
Has Covid harmed your immune systems ?
Covid this week admissions bottom out and level off as JN.1.7 starts to kick in. In reality JN.1.7 should be around 15% to 20% right now doubling fortnightly. Add anything with R346K/T in to the mix and the next wave should be late April.
If you're interested.
Trying to explain to someone that it's not ok for them to put their elderly parent in a nursing home so they can sell their parents house and use the money to clear their own debts.
I got a square "fuck off and keep your nose out" response.
This is why I don't like people.
Simple fact is, whether you like it or not.
You all get 3 to 5 waves a year about 8-10 weeks apart no matter where you are on the planet.
And the severity of each wave depends on;
1) How bad the last wave was
2) How many Vax Boosted
3) Which subvariant holds Founder Status
Can I just go on record on here to say i now think BA.2.86 will cause a gigantic global wave and we are about to see a lot of dead people again.
It is very very fucking fast and very very fucking contagious imho.
That is all.
Alexa, show me what sampling microclusters look like please.
I'm still just totally fucking gobsmacked by how lightly people are treating BA.2.86, ya know as if it's nothing when it almost puts you back to square one.
Stupid twats.
What in God's name is wrong with you all 😂.
BA.2.86
I think it is safe to say we can move on from:
"but but my test tube in the lab told me it wasn't very infectious"
and
"but but my calculator says its growth advantage is only 30%"
And go straight to the bullshit
"but but it doesn't make you sick & nobody's dying"
Covid testing is down about 70% ish in England on last year. Reported case numbers are meaningless. We have no ZOE numbers or ONS stats, the Gov dashboard is closing and the new UKHSA covid survey is delayed until after Xmas.
Best of luck chaps, Tally Ho, over the top we go...
BA.2.86
Even if you take out the care home cluster in the UK Pirola still shows a 250% plus growth rate in the UK & is currently the third fastest growing variant (out of hundreds) with some stiff competition
Don't let people bullshit you with phrases like "i think, i feel" ect
Ya know, sudden death from severe pneumonia, in different countries, in people who were young, healthy, completely fine and actually at work forty eight hours before suddenly croaking in their beds overnight.... well that might be a bit of a fucking Red Flag
@who
you thick twats.
Often people have said to me that if Covid had affected children in the same devastating way that it hit the elderly, then we would have taken it seriously....
.....well we'll soon see eh.
(My money is on them playing the old Adenodogs cause Hepatitis game again tbh)
It's not just antivaxers that have caused the problem. A decade ago most of these diseases were rare enough to be off the radar. Measles, Whooping Cough, Polio.
Then ten weeks of Lockdown four years ago brought them back.
Unless of course Covid weakens immune systems. Then hmm
Dear
@CDCgov
if
#H5N1
spreads in penguins in Antarctica at minus 60c what makes you think that warming milk to plus 60c for half an hour will kill it.
Asking for the whole 8 billion or so of you...
You should be asking yourself two questions right now:
1) When have we last seen double digit Covid Hospital Admissions during the UK summer Holidays.
(Answer = Never, not even during Delta)
2) How Long were cases rising before Alpha was announced.
(Answer = About 6-8 weeks)
@Ride4Truth
The press pretending nothing's happening and kids are fine when so many are dying. And the vast majority of the public believing it's all over. Its like being in some sort of horror movie.
Morning. Early start today.
Just a reminder that booster protection starts to wane by around weeks 10-12 so huge congratulations to everyone boosted before 1st October on becoming eligible to have Covid kick the crap out of them again.
I am in one cnt of a mood this morning 😂
@SDGovCrisis
I think nobody wants to pin it on Covid in case they're wrong. Plenty of people seem happy enough to pin it on Adenovirus who have a history of being consistently wrong.
Go figure eh Bonnie 😂😂🤔
Even two years in people still put risking their reputations above peoples lives.
Well 9 days after my first tweet and as of today JN.1.7 is the fastest growing variant in the UK.
6% of all sequences
At least a 50% growth advantage over JN.1.1.
17 day doubling time roughly
This is fun
@mvankerkhove
It's basic stuff.
Look at it this way.
Say XBB infects 100 people each of whom are contagious for 3 days.
Now say BA.2.86 infections are contagious for 12 days because its harder to fight off. BA.2.86 only has to infect 26 people to outcompete XBBs 100.
You see that right ?
What this actually tells us is that BA.2.86's "starting point" is as bad as EG.5.1 is now, after its had eighteen months plus of evolution.
Everyone see's that right ? I know the Variant Hunter group does for sure, but does the rest of the world.
Our live virus SARS-CoV-2 studies from Denmark suggest that the level of BA.2.86 plasma neutralization is mostly comparable to that of XBB.1 and EG.5.1.
Similar to live virus studies from
@sigallab
and pseudovirus studies
@BarouchLab
@ShanLuLiu1
@SystemsVirology
Lovely old fella, has a bit of a fall, NHS take him in, gets covid, dead in a week. Fuck off with your NHS are wonderful bullshit, they are fucking appalling I speak from experience once you finally get a bed the treatment on wards is a fucking fiasco.
Most of you know i'm, let's just say kinda weird, when it comes to spotting patterns. And i spout a lot of crap. But if this upturn in Okinawa (in fact most of Japan) isn't a math anomaly then something else may be hitting Japan.
Again.
Already.
@dgurdasani1
yes i saw it because Meg at
@ukhsa
retweeted it. I doubt her rt was on scientific grounds because the whole thread was laughable so i guess it was a secondary personal attack (again).
Quick update on BA.2.86
UK accounts for about a quarter of all global sequences recorded on GISAID now. Pretty sure the UK doesn't contribute more than 10% of gisaid sampling.
I'd say we either have really shit infection control measures or it began here in the UK.
Or both.
The problem with the "we knew we'd get a cluster" rhetoric is yeah we did, and i calculated it at a maximum of 6 not fkin 30+
So this is a clusterfuck not a cluster.
I also estimate (conservatively) that 1 in 50 schools has a kid carrying BA.2.86 right now
Expect more clusters
@AmandaDannielle
A lot of psychopaths like to be in positions of power, or pretend they are by faking links to the police, army or inteligence services. Basically anyone who owns a pair of cammo pants and a cammo jacket should be on a "watch list" of some sort imho ,😂
To whichever fool it was on the news last night talking trash about Covid19 claiming global deaths are lower now than they were this time last year.
Look at this graph and get your facts right.
Last Oct Deaths ave = 5500
This Oct Deaths ave = 7000
Deaths are up 27% on LY
I like this man, I don't know him, I just like him. Because he is one of the few virologists on here who is actually right about things, not just because I agree with him, but because he is just honest. He doesn't play things down and he has no agenda or guile. Rare in a human.
The virus won't be benign
The trajectory has been more immune-evasive (chronic), with retention of the superantigen, fcs, and refinement of fcs advantageousness
As I have said long ago
Rather, it will exert selection pressure on people. We're not the humans adapted to cov2
In the UK 65% of those eligible have taken the booster. For those who took the old booster stock, which i think was about two million vulnerable people, it made no difference at all.
None.
That's how
@UKHSA
(don't) protect the most vulnerable. Hang your fucking heads in shame.
Individuals who did not receive XBB1.5-adapted vaccine & had received only older versions of COVID vaccines had little additional protection compared to the unvaccinated against COVID-19 endpoints, including hospital admission, regardless of number or type of prior doses 1/
In the Alpha wave there were no known subvariants of Alpha that were more infectious than their parent. In Delta wave there were 200+ subvariants and only 1 (ok maybe 3ish) was more infectious
In April alone TEN of Omicron's subvariants are already more infectious than Omicron
In My Humble Opinion
BA.2.86
It isnt BA.2 its not even Omicron
not as easily detectible on PCR tests as other variants
already everywhere
already started a global wave
makes you more poorly than the XBBs
I don't give a shit if you disagree based on what you think you know
There is something seriously wrong with the Covid Minimiser crowd and their followers. I mean they have been proven incorrect on multiple occasions through five distinct Covid waves. Yet they STILL insist they were right.