Tim @TAlbTree Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Tim

@TAlbTree

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he/him - cricreadR author - @Campus2Canton | nfl/cfb/t20 cricket/healthcare - amateur analytics

Australia

https://t.co/iPcrXbIFcO

Joined August 2011

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@TAlbTree

Tim

5 months

First package release! cricreadR provides functions to read in pre scraped cricket ball by ball data (T20/The Hundred), and player statistics. Can also scrape and summarise other leagues not yet in the repo. CSVs for player stats for non R user #Rstats

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Made this rule after I drafted Edwards over Aiyuk. Couldn’t help myself so made the same mistake in 2021 with Dyami over Toney The 2022 version likely to be Bell vs Watson or Dotson Will see if I can stick to it!

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

2021 Rookie WR Rankings 1.Ja’Marr Chase 2.Rondale Moore 3.Rashod Bateman 4.Elijah Moore 5.Seth Williams 6.Dyami Brown 7.Terrace Marshall 8.Tylan Wallace 9.Jaylen Waddle 10.Devonta Smith 11.Amon-Ra St Brown

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

I wanted to use data to look at WR play styles to try and assist with identifying who the next “analytical” favourite that was going to bust would be a la N’Keal Harry/Jalen Reagor I used data from PFF and used K means clustering to split WRs into 8 clusters/play styles /11

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

WRs I can’t confidently say Devonta Smith is better than: Ja’Marr Chase Rondale Moore Rashod Bateman Chris Olave Elijah Moore Seth Williams Dyami Brown Jaylen Waddle Terrace Marshall Amon-Ra St Brown Tylan Wallace Tamorrion Terry Sage Surratt

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

@austingayle_ One of those pretty good players

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@TAlbTree

Tim

10 months

For my #BigDataBowl entry I’ve created an expected tackle metric for defensive backs on pass plays. I’ve then flipped that around to get the best WRs at avoiding DB tackles on pass plays. Passes the sniff test so far Also appears correlated with YAC

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Thanks @ScottFish24 ! Going to be an absolute ripper! #SFB11

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Can officially now change Christian Kirk Top 24 seasons to: 1

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

“This WR was the WRX for the final X weeks of last season” This quote is in full swing currently. The question - how big of an end of season sample is needed for highest predictiveness? All WRs: final ~11 games Rookie WRs: final ~8 games but less predictive Actionable

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

Rookie WR Model 2021 Edition Second year doing this model ⁃Primary change since last year - added yards per team pass attempt ⁃R^2 to S1-3 PPR PPG 0.34 compared to draft capital (R1-7) alone R^2 0.30 1/9

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Made a basic linear model of Expected Fantasy Points + Age vs @KeepTradeCut values to come up with Expected KTC values to try and target buys + sells Here are some charts Interpret with whatever portion of caution you would like to :)

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@TAlbTree

Tim

9 months

@PFF_Fantasy @PrizePicks Peyton Manning. Simply hasn’t produced in a while

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

This needs resharing. Javonte Williams is RB1. 21yo RBs are what we like!

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Plotted expected receiving PPR points for WR and TE against their actual PPR points - Top right is essentially just @YardsPerGretch SFB roster - Sutton, Meyers, Pittman seem very clearly buy lows + Ridley/Diggs still - JuJu and Shenault’s low air yards punishing their xFP here

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Fresh 2022 rookie WR career Top 24 probabilities using @GrindingMocks Estimated Draft Position

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

A rare article by me! Driven by Wan’Dale discourse and perhaps Mario Williams discourse in 2024 Does it Matter if my Favorite Rookie Wide Receiver is Small? via @campus2canton

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Does it Matter if my Favorite Rookie Wide Receiver is Small?

Does size matter? With the rookie WRs, it may not - check out what Tim Alb has to say!

campus2canton.com

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

If you’re going to like a Senior WR, like Tylan Wallace instead of Devonta Smith. Broke out as a SO instead of JR >30% Dominator Rating SO/JR/SR vs SR only +15lbs Same DR as a SR 0.45 vs 0.45 just less spotlight Cheaper in your rookie drafts

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@TAlbTree

Tim

10 months

Took inspiration from the ESPN receiving tracking metrics (& @cplant_ ) to come up with Catch/open/YAC scores for college WRs using PFF data Below are notable 2024 WRs and a snippet from the site

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@TAlbTree

Tim

1 year

Have launched a(nother) shiny app - Fantasy Football Wins Above Replacement - Bar charts comparing between players - Searchable table of previous WAR results - Data from 2010 to 2022 - Will auto update in season #nflverse

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

Is Rondale Moore’s height the equivalent of DK Metcalf’s 3 cone?

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Me: I don’t care about weight for WR fantasy success Also me: ooooh that Skyy Moore measure and weigh in looks great

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

Pre draft RB model with 40 yard dash times from draftscout

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

Jonathan Taylor is RB9 in receiving yards

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

A Model based approach to the 2023 Wide Receiver Recruiting Class via @campus2canton @C2CRecruiting

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A Model based approach to the 2023 Wide Receiver Recruiting Class

Using a predictive machine learning model to rank the incoming college wide receiving recruiting class for 2023.

campus2canton.com

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

WR model with expected draft capital for reference and past success rates for WR1/2 seasons on the right. R^2 0.465 for seasons 1-3 PPR PPG. Sample 2014-2018 WRs (can’t include 2019-2020 yet as haven’t played 3 seasons!)

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

@CDCarter13 “Fine, I’ll drink the beer”. A noble warrior

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

7 players hit this mark in 2021 using the mock draft capital: ⁃Rashod Bateman ⁃Elijah Moore ⁃Terrace Marshall Jr ⁃Rondale Moore ⁃Ja’Marr Chase ⁃Amon-Ra St Brown ⁃Tylan Wallace 5/9

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Top 30 Model scores A good recommendation by @mreader123 to add NFL teams. Made me learn about the gtExtras package which I'm glad I did. Good riddance college logos, we're in the NFL now! Had previously posted these scores, but this is more aesthetically pleasing

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

Look ahead to the 2022 class - not enough Treylon Burks chatter -Garrett Wilson is a little older (1 month younger than Olave) 1st round capital will help him, don’t stress too much - similar to Tylan Wallace I’ll probably subjectivity have Justyn Ross higher in ranks

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Don’t think I ever posted my RB model results but Rachaad White is either going to be a raging success or I’m going to overdraft him everywhere - definitely didn’t enjoy this as much as WR or QB - wasn’t hugely different from draft capital only so 🤷‍♂️

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@TAlbTree

Tim

10 months

Have submitted by #BigDataBowl entry! Very proud of getting an entry in - many sleep deprived nights went into this. The kaggle notebook also has a searchable table for avoided tackles by WRs, because offensive players are fun.

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DB Expected Tackles against WRs on Pass Plays

Explore and run machine learning code with Kaggle Notebooks | Using data from multiple data sources

@TAlbTree

Tim

10 months

For my #BigDataBowl entry I’ve created an expected tackle metric for defensive backs on pass plays. I’ve then flipped that around to get the best WRs at avoiding DB tackles on pass plays. Passes the sniff test so far Also appears correlated with YAC

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@TAlbTree

Tim

1 year

@TheAthletic Listened to the whole thing to hear the outrageous comment…. Crickets…

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Incomplete WR ranks as of today Treylon Burks Garret Wilson Drake London Jameson Williams Wan’Dale Robinson David Bell Jahan Dotson Chris Olave Khalil Shakir Dontayvion Wicks - need more time to decide on Pickens/Ross/Tolbert

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

Since 2011 there have been 13 RBs that have had a >90th %ile pre draft score in my model, and a >100 weight adjusted speed score 1/3

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Every offense after this draft class

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Final model results for the 2021 WR Draft class. Anyone not pictured I’m not interested in, and tbh, a lot that are pictured I’m not interested in either. Look forward to looking back in 12 months and see how the first year has shaken out

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

WR model with expected draft capital for reference and past success rates for WR1/2 seasons on the right. R^2 0.465 for seasons 1-3 PPR PPG. Sample 2014-2018 WRs (can’t include 2019-2020 yet as haven’t played 3 seasons!)

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

On the flip side, since 2010 which early declare round 1 WRs had >3 YPTPA in year 2? - Ja’Marr Chase - Marquise Brown - Rashod Bateman - Jerry Jeudy - Garrett Wilson

@dynasty_im

DynastyIM

3 years

Garrett Wilson posted 3.22 YPTPA as a sophomore. the next season it dropped by 0.69 what other RD1 WRs had a 0.5+ YPTPA drop their declare season? 📍M Crabtree 📍J Baldwin 📍J Reagor 📍D Heyward-Bey 📍J Blackmon Wilson is a *good* prospect but not as safe as believed to be 😅

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Probably ruining the algorithm by two quick posts but this really is turning into one of my favourite snapshots of the devy RB landscape each week for myself Explosive Run Rate x Rec YPTPA Whack an Alabama helmet onto Jahmyr Gibbs excellence = draft capital+++

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@TAlbTree

Tim

1 year

@GuruFantasyWrld

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Going to roll with this as my quarterback model going into draft season I think Very simple in the end - combo of QBR, rush yard MS and draft capital R^2 of 0.598 for rounds 1-7 (pick only was 0.5ish?) R^2 of 0.325 for round 1 only (draft pick only was 0.09) Willis 1.01

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Used K-means to cluster WRs from 2014-2021 based off a few different variables such as height, weight, age, draft position, years out of HS, and some production metrics. Then calculated the mean S1-3 PPR PPG for each cluster. Then popped them on a chart

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Post week 5 expected fantasy points vs PPR points thread Rookie WRs - Chase is a stud - Toney and ARSB getting reasonable volume: just as we drew it up - If you believe in Hurts you should believe in Devonta - Waddle over performing without having broken a long TD is 👌

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Finally nailed my rookie models and now ready to launch a Patreon

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Was lucky enough to be able to use @bigWRguy ‘s high school WR database to also come up with a model for projecting college fantasy production from high schoolers We landed on very similar results! 17 of the same top 20 Very excited to be in a new space

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@bigWRguy

bigWRguy

3 years

psssst....dont share this note with anybody. Its the debut of The Official Composite for the 2022 recruiting class WRs. Get a sneak peak on the top incoming freshman WRs. This combines my data based model with 247 and Rivals grades.

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Took some mock drafts info, and some of my own creative license to add some draft round data to our 2022 WR class to see how my logistic regression model treated them. Can see the results below Without injury London is with Burks/Wilson

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

WE HAVE NEW @GrindingMocks DATA!!! Skyy Moore is coming 😈

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@TAlbTree

Tim

9 months

Would love Isaiah Bond to continue his Troy Franklin trajectory!

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Started from the bottom now we here

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@TAlbTree

Tim

8 months

2024 Rookie WR clusters! Explanation of each cluster here: Cluster 2 has previously been my fave cluster Cluster 6 has had some fun names Cluster 8 💩 (Ps I hate this table format but set it up 2 years ago and not changing it now)

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Going to be a blast! (It has already) Got a great group to bounce lots of ideas off, and enjoying sinking my teeth into the topic of recruiting Thanks!

@campus2canton

Campus2Canton

3 years

We are thrilled to announce @TAlbTree has joined the team! He will help with various projects & brings outside the box thinking + model-building skills! Welcome in this newly minted lifetime Chargers fan since 2021!

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

Update: Ja'Marr Chase Rashod Bateman - up 1 Rondale Moore - down 1 Elijah Moore Terrace Marshall - up 2 Jaylen Waddle - up 3 Dyami Brown - down 1 Seth Williams - down 3 Tylan Wallace - down 1 Devonta Smith Amon-Ra St Brown Wouldn't surprise me to see any of these succeed

@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

2021 Rookie WR Rankings 1.Ja’Marr Chase 2.Rondale Moore 3.Rashod Bateman 4.Elijah Moore 5.Seth Williams 6.Dyami Brown 7.Terrace Marshall 8.Tylan Wallace 9.Jaylen Waddle 10.Devonta Smith 11.Amon-Ra St Brown

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Couldn’t find any articles on stacking in dynasty so looked at it myself! Had some coding help from @EdnaBEASTmode and also @Adeiko_FF ‘s resources of sleeper IDs Is Stacking in Dynasty helpful? via @campus2canton

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Is Stacking in Dynasty helpful?

A bunch of hubaloo is made about stacking roster in dynasty - is it really an effective strategy?

campus2canton.com

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Similar to last year, I want to try and identify some UDFA RBs who have a shot at being productive. The first: Javian Hawkins (rSO) - Louisville - signed with ATL 21yo 5’8” 183lbs 4.46 40yd 36” vertical 9’8” broad 6.96 3-cone 1/4

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

There are 2 UDFA RBs who have been signed that intrigue me. James Robinson (SR) - Illinois State - signed with JAX 5-10. 220lbs ✅ 4.64 40yd ❌ 94.5 WaSS - 43rd %ile❌ 92nd %ile burst scor✅ 69th (nice) %ile ability score ✅ 4872 YFS over 4yrs 58 Recs over 46gms 1/3

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Brandon Aiyuk’s rookie year PPR PPG outscored AJ Brown’s rookie year PPR PPG by 1 PPG I did not expect to see that

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

End of season explosive run rate x Rec YPTPA chart with 2023 RBs that are headed to the draft Can draw your own conclusions 😊

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@TAlbTree

Tim

10 months

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@allpurposescout

Jason DiRienzo

@allpurposescout

10 months

#TarHeels WR Tez Walker is a better prospect than Keon Coleman. This play Walker shows a solid single move/speed release, hand fights to the redline and stacks the defender with very good long speed while displaying very good ball tracking, hands, awareness & YAC tenacity

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

The 49ers threw the ball 92 more times in 2021 compared to 2020 This is a Rashod Bateman tweet

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

@StillRyanFive Ja’Marr Chase’s dominant trait is being good at getting all of the yards and all of the touchdowns and being good at the footballs

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

No sleeper. You’ve got limited upside in week 4.

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Attempted to look at if landing spot matters from a WR competition perspective As long as they remained with the team, I compared the team's previous WR1 (or combined previous WR1 + 2) tgt share with the Rookie WR's PPR PPG Nothing relevant here

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Geno screwed the visuals

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Amon-Ra St Brown scored 200 PPR pts as a rookie. Since 2006 there have been 27 rookie WRs who scored >180 PPR pts (allowed some leeway under 200 for the doubters - Kupp was at 176, then Slayton at 170 btw) 19 of these scored >200 ppr pts (~WR24) in year 2. 1/4

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

This is great for three months after a leg amputation (that’s what Twitter told me had happened) Akers still has 10.5 months to build on this before the season starts

@HoldenCantor

HoldenCantor

3 years

Cam Akers update from today via his IG

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

I think Dyami Brown may be up to WR4 for me

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

Big12 Najee not going down. Rhamondre Stevenson!

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

@DevyEusuf WR model has changed slightly since the last screenshot, but compared to previous 1st round TEs if we pretended they were WRs

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

Hands up if you’re excited to wake up to Kenny Gainwell’s pro day results!

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@TAlbTree

Tim

10 months

2024 Running Back Class - Receiving Yards per Team pass attempt x Explosive Rush Rate

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Explosive runners Tank Bigsby 🤝 Zach Evans I don’t want to say his name, but Syracuse RB - either I’ve got it wrong (possible), or he’s not breaking big running plays? Can’t be pleased

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Made my first very basic shiny app 😃 Plots targets per pass snap vs yards per pass snap AKA the open source version of Targets and Yards per Route Run #nflverse

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Rounds 1-3 all position model update. Long picture to scroll down! Thoughts in comments when I start having thoughts

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@TAlbTree

Tim

1 year

Really nice representation here from Connor I’ve got a site where you can explore players WAR from 2010-2022 It’s likely we’ve calculated using slightly different methods but same concept applies 😊

@cplant_

Connor LaPlante🌱

1 year

2022 Fantasy Football WAR👀

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

The "gold standard" that's quoted for Rookie WRs is >2.00 YPRR on >200 routes Given we're only 5 weeks into the season, YPRR is prone to increased noise. Using data from the ffverse, #nflverse & @KeepTradeCut here is Expected Rec Yards Per Pass Snap

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Age 21 rookie WRs are not more successful at hitting a top 12/24 season than older WRs once accounting for early declare status Circles/p-values need to be <0.05 in order for that variable to matter. Age >0.05 Early/late declare <0.05 Age is not a reason at all to fade Burks

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

2021 WRs YACOE vs CPOE Talk about intriguing Mr Kendrick Bourne! Efficient dude Robby kept TMJ on the bench... ouch

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Everyone has seen the evidence that Achilles tears increases fumble rate

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

“Justin Jefferson is working behind Bisi Johnson”

@WilliePStyle

Will Palaszczuk

3 years

Darnold’s first completion comes to David Moore, who is in a dead heat with Terrace Marshall for the slot position job.

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Tim

4 years

Just wrapped up my portion of a startup devy draft. Went heavy++ on the devy picks as evidenced by my RB2 and 3 (for 2021 anyway) being Alexander Mattison and Rashaad Penny. Had 8 of the first 13 picks, and 9 of the first 25. 10team SF no TE prem. All Aussies 👌 My picks ⬇️

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Continuing our regular model update as we get updated @GrindingMocks EDP - added career Top 12 probabilities - need to add Christian Watson - EDP 47 - expect him to end up low though, Heileigh region - I’m going to have Jameson Williams above his model projection

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Another round of updates rookie predicted career T24 probabilities thanks to fresh @GrindingMocks EDP *queue Skyy Moore discourse*

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

P5 WRs (ceebs non P5) potential early declares who have a yptpa over expected 2022 Treylon Burks David Bell Drake London Wan’Dale Robinson Garrett Wilson 2023 Josh Downs Quentin Johnston Jordan Addison Kayshon Boutte Marvin Mims 2024 Xavier Worthy Thread end!

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Tim

4 years

Lavel Davis from Virginia had a 28% per game rec yards MS as a freshman. He’s 6 foot 7 inches tall.

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Tim

3 years

I know the NFL is on, I know But is this weighted dominator correct for Drake London? 🤯 Treylon Burks the gawd up top Who said this isn’t going to be a fun class #devy

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

A thread on why I think John Metchie could end up good: 1. His play style is clustered with Skyy Moore /fin (but also some really other great players)

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Another round of updates rookie predicted career T24 probabilities thanks to fresh @GrindingMocks EDP *queue Skyy Moore discourse*

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

Fresh 2022 rookie WR career Top 24 probabilities using @GrindingMocks Estimated Draft Position

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@TAlbTree

Tim

4 years

If we pretended Kyle Pitts was a WR

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

@RonStewart_

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Attempt 4 Thought it might be interesting to chart 2021 expected fantasy points per game against @dynastyprocess player values, with age too. Aiming to find someone that may be undervalued Some names that interest me: Cooks, Mike Williams, Keenan, Hollywood, Mooney, Jakobi

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

As a tried and true Skyy Moore truther, and as the kids says “YLTSI”. We love 24!

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

WRs with targets >= 30 - Lots of buy lows still: Ridley, Meyers, Sutton (still!), Diggs, Allen - Mike Williams elite usage continues - We should be excited about Rashod Bateman given the xFP in Baltimore

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@TAlbTree

Tim

2 years

Zay just cleared all height thresholds and there’s no stopping him now

@Marcus_Mosher

Marcus Mosher

2 years

Boston College WR Zay Flowers measured in at 5092 and 182 pounds at the Shrine Bowl.

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Tim

1 year

Fresh off the press thanks to @C2CRecruiting and @campus2canton - turns out for the sampled plays in High School Aidan Chiles did have a very low Pressure-to-sack rate! Under 10% 👌

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@SportsfanaticMB

Matthew Bruening

@SportsfanaticMB

1 year

#3 is going to be a star!!

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@TAlbTree

Tim

3 years

@DFBeanCounter @SCTrojanDuck Not sure comparing market shares of a 6/13 game season to a 14/14 game season is the way to go. In fact I’m sure it’s not the way to go

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Tim

3 years

Skyy Moore one day, Wan’Dale the next - brilliant

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Tim

3 years

Actually disgusting

@RapSheet

Ian Rapoport

3 years

Important contract note for Deshaun Watson, who got a 5-year, $230M contract. His base salary for 2022 is $1M, which means if he’s suspended, it’ll come out of that base.

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Tim

9 months

R code to clean PFF team names to match those used by @CFB_Data and @cfbfastr - FBS only at this point. May add FCS in the future.

GitHub - albtree/clean-pff-teams: Function to clean PFF College Football Team Names to those used...

Function to clean PFF College Football Team Names to those used by CFBD within cfbfastR - albtree/clean-pff-teams

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Tim

3 years

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Tim

2 years

“Nathan Leacock is interesting” - @devydeets Sure is! Model WR12 C2C WR17 On3 WR6 247 WR13 On3 Comp - DeVante Parker 247 Comp - Tee Higgins

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