Andrei Sota @Signal_Sigma Twitter profile

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

11 months

Welcome! Let me introduce myself and the Signal Sigma Research Platform

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@jimcramer Don’t be too hard on yourself, Jim. We all make mistakes. Your bad calls have turned you into a legend at least. So enjoy that. You’ll win again, I’m sure 😉

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@danprimack Why is that weird? He’s got 3 shareholer groups he needs to create value for. Workers work. CEOs CEO. It is what it is. Capitalism.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

@EHunterChristie Yeah.. no, I don’t think so. Also speaking as an European. Musk’s stance towards the war in Ukraine seems totally appropriate to me, and I’m not a big fan of his or anything. It just fits my common sense criteria.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@michaellebowitz @ayeshatariq What’s worse before midterms? Billionaires losing a couple of billions on the stock market or 50% of the entire population getting squeezed on household goods, credit, gas, and general well-being I think the choice is clear.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

@MichaelAArouet 100% accuracy not very impressive for a lagging indicator, however.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

8 months

@MichaelAArouet Again, Romania stands out in one of your posts, Michael.. in a way that contradicts the common narrative of “poor eastern european state”. A high home ownership rate is very healthy for a society I believe- brings more of a risk-taking mentality and a sense of civic duty.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

@WallStreetSilv This is an alarmist take, propagating a myth we’ve debunked. Namely that there are fewer foreign buyers of US debt. This is only true if you take Q4 of 2021 as a comparison level. Otherwise, the long-term trend is still strongly positive and intact. And while foreigners are

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

@RobBaumgartner4 Proud to see Romania near the top 🇷🇴 math is a highly regarded skill over here!

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

8 months

@jasongoepfert The divergence in breadth illustrated, using 20-DMA instead of 10. But more or less the same point. Notice the "Sigma Score" readings as well. This was calculated from the top 1000 stocks by dollar volume, not the S&P 500, for better "broad market" representation.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

@Swordfishv44183 Can’t say I see the correlation over the last 5 quarters. According to exploresemis, $NVDA accounts for around 6.3% of $TSM s revenue. So the two are *VERY* different businesses.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

What’s worse? A stock market decline that makes billionaires lose some billions, or surging inflation that hurts the (voting) lower and middle class? Tighter financial conditions are a no brainer from a political standpoint.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

@MichaelAArouet The chart illustrates U-1 unemployment (or long-term unemployed); companies are slow to hire and slow to fire, only letting go of personnel when absolutely necessary -lag #1 By the time this workforce is counted in U1 (16 weeks - lag #2 ), the recession might as well be old news.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

@LayahHeilpern The flag that symbolized peace and harmony somehow ended up looking like a cult symbol, when displayed like this.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Signal Sigma quant strategies have outperformed the market by 500% on average. Here are some aggregated stats: 📊 Annual returns: 9.5% - 25% Sharpe Ratio: 1.1 - 1.45 Max Drawdown: 8.8% - 21.2% Backtested since 2007. Not a single losing year on record.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@NeerajT4 Because that worked out amazing in Japan when they offered the 100 year loan for 3 generations in the 80’s! Oh, sorry… it only increased speculation, created a Real Estate bubble and made houses even more unaffordable.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

In times of great volatility, having a solid process is essential. Using our data-driven investing approach to navigating markets will give you an edge. Signal Sigma has proven credentials: Annual returns: 9.5% - 25% Sharpe: 1.1 - 1.45 Max DD: 8.8% - 21.2% No losing years.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@MT_Capital1 Not exactly a charts app, but the PRO version of Signal Sigma will give you access to a lot of institutional - level tools. I personally have not found a faster way to build a DCF model + technical trading thesis for a company. Give it a try!

Outperforming the Market by Over 250% Since 2007

Signal Sigma provides investment professionals with cutting edge quant research. Our algorithms and trading technology are 100% proprietary and developed in-house.

www.signal-sigma.com

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

10 months

@sweatystartup Nick, dressing sloppily is something only certain professionals can “afford”. For the rest of us, putting some time and effort into our appearance does generate good ROI. Don’t know why this is news to you. At the very least, it can’t hurt.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

In my opinion, for the CPI to be bullish for stocks, it needs to come in at exactly 6.5%, not a lot more or less. Too low and we’ll start pricing in a recession and a poor Q4 season; Too high is problematic for obvious reasons.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Inverse @jimcramer going mainstream now; Time to go long inverse inverse @jimcramer then!

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

11 months

@MichaelAArouet I believe this was intentional.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

There are two mutually exclusive principles when trying to predict the future path for an asset: mean-reversion and trend continuation, AKA “range trading” and "trend following”. You cannot apply both, at the same time. For $SPY, investors are betting on a regime change.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

I’d rather chase the rally in $TLT rather than stocks right now; While currently extended and sitting right at technical resistance, this is an asset class I’d look to buy on the next dip in. Fundamentals and technicals are lining up for bonds to shine in 2023.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

10 months

Debunking the First Rate Cut Myth Many bearish arguments circulating on social and traditional media revolve around the market action following the Fed’s first rate cut. Namely that the Fed will only lower rates when a recession hits; we already know that a recession translates

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

9 months

SNEAK PEEK INTO THE MILLENNIUM RANKING SYSTEM The Millennium models have recently garnered a lot of attention. Discussions have sprung up regarding the exact metrics used for portfolio construction. We’ve decided to reveal all of the inner workings of this system and are

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

I just finished building this finance app called Signal Sigma. Here it is in all it’s 4K glory!

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@ParikPatelCFA @business Aaah, the old “how to become a millionaire” question, right? Answer: be a billionaire > invest in crypto Timeless

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Google Trends for #recession Since 2004, there's always been an initial scare (probably caused by yield curves inverting and growth decelerating), followed by a "false alarm" period, followed by the actual economic event. Textbook mentality.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@Mayhem4Markets Out of all 3, AI has the potential to actually be useful. Human nature might blow this into a bubble yet again, but it’s undeniable the tech is impressive. The other 2 are garbage in their current iterations.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@WifeyAlpha Been saying this for a while now. I still believe this is the case, for now.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Just finished writing an introduction to the Signal Sigma investment process. The app is custom built to fit this framework, and I’ve made it as easy as possible to understand; See if it makes sense to you:

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@uxtuning @SamuelSWatson @danprimack He is “workaholic” incarnate. Or at least he has been up till now. You don’t get to where he is without working your ass off. This can happen in the office/factory or attending public events, doing deals, tweeting, etc. I don’t particularly like him, but I respect him as a CEO

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

@David_Dierking Interesting fact. But clearly Utilities, favored by investors for their safe dividend, are more linked to treasuries than equities. Try the same analysis with $TLT instead of the S&P500.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

@realDonaldJNews You don’t need to show ID in order to vote in the US?! In Romania, that’s the first thing they ask for when you enter the polling booth. And we’re an “incredibly corrupt” country - or so they say.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@SuburbanDrone Why on earth would US equities benefit from a stronger dollar? SP500 companies get 40% of their revenues in foreign currency; a strong dollar is a huge FX headwind that will put pressure on margins as well as EPS. Only holders of dollars benefit overall.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@AnnekaTreon Don’t show them this chart of the Nikkei - 30 years of buy & hold and investors are still getting a negative return after the peak in 1990, despite the BoJ’s ultra loose policy. This can happen at any time, in any market. And it will, indeed, be different.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@bkaellner …because you get to have fun and can tell awesome stories afterwards. Life’s not only about spreadsheets.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@BaddDogg @SJosephBurns Fantastic 😂😂😂 try it on Bing now, and start an argument.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

@SchuermannChris @TommyThornton Here’s a novel thought… what if consumers don’t actually want to own an electric car? I sure don’t, for example. In this case, demand can hardly be stimulated by price cuts. This tail risk is not priced in currently.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@Mayhem4Markets The effect of tightening policy overall is less dollars (liquidity) in the markets; We track this daily and you can already see how volumes are starting to trend down.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@MichaelKantro The average recession drawdown for the average stock is 50%; We’re at -35% right now, so still a ways to go.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

10 months

Millennium Alpha Beats the S&P 500 by 20% Our Alpha model hit an all-time-high on December 01 2023, beating the S&P 500 by 20.00% over a 2 year period. Excess sharpe: 2.00 Alpha: 12.40% Over the same time period, the S&P 500 was essentially flat, up just 1.9%. In

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@nope_its_lily Mark may well be ahead of his time here. The metaverse is a technology that would cater to the lower classes, in my view (who can’t afford to properly live in the real world). Rising inequality dynamics make this a probable scenario long term. He just needs to stay solvent.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

Master this Process and you will Master the Market In this video, I'll demonstrate our proprietary analysis method for reaching fair value for a stock. We do this by taking key Fundamental assumptions about the business, and visualizing what it means on a Technical Chart.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@MacroAlf Even scarier: Half of that market cap is justified by the sales generated by exactly 1 product line.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

11 months

@simon_ree Comparing gambling odds to anything other than very short term trading is not advisable. In investing, there is such a thing as fair value, and extensions above and below increase the odds of a reversal. At the roulette table, the odds are the same for every spin.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

833 stocks out of 1000 that make up our breadth analysis are trading above their 20-day MA Previous bear market rally tops have seen this metric well above 900 (virtually all stocks)

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Keep an eye on treasuries here $TLT Still the most oversold of all major asset classes, we are at levels that have historically been great buying opportunities; A “flight to safety” may be in the works once the bear market rally is over.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

7 months

@kashyap286 Here's a quick way to do this via Signal Sigma's screener: - Set $QQQ as benchmark ETF - Set Relative Z-Score on a column (and sort by this, with max value at 0) - Set Dollar Volume on another Observe results. Some other notable entries and a toppy looking combined chart:

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@Mayhem4Markets According to the metrics that we monitor, we’re seeing oversold levels that have previously preceeded short-term bottoms.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

The US Dollar is at a critical juncture. While technically overbought, the Dollar is attempting to push through a major resistance level (identified by our system as S1). This level has provided both support and resistance to past moves.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

How can a professional rules-based investment method benefit your portfolio? Watch the video intro to my work and the Signal Sigma Platform below 🎬

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

@SawyerMerritt A Taycan buyer would not even consider getting a Tesla at this point. Miles wide difference when it comes to build quality.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@AyeshaTariq I remember similar probabilities from the December release (80% upside, easy money); And here we are, 1 month later, with a cooler than expected CPI, and the markets lower. Moral of the story: it's a DAY plan, like it says on the slide.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@jimcramer Why is that, Jim? Even when accounting for moderate growth (10%) - which is itself questionable - investors still don't get a decent cashflow stream in return. The whole metaverse play better pay off or else this goes in the dumpster.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

It’s official: Japan is now worrying about inflation. And with that, there are no more dovish Central Banks left. Hard to imagine a pivot anytime soon from the Fed, that would be bullish for equities.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@ayeshatariq The Fed Chair walking back comments made just a month ago would spell serious trouble; I’d rather they guide upward for the next meetings.

Fed's Powell: 75 basis point rate hike not being 'actively considered'

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said central bank officials are not "actively" considering a rate hike of three-quarters of a percentage point at coming monetary policy meetings.

www.reuters.com

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

10 months

From a “wealth effect” perspective, the Fed is fine with having a stock market that goes nowhere, as we’ve seen in the past 2 years. A range trading instrument, like our sentiment indicator, has worked wonders for timing the market in the past 2 years.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@DavidSacks No, once it’s down 50% it can only go down another 50%. Simple math really.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@NorthmanTrader 2022: the year that outperformance is characterized by losing less than the other guy

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@Mayhem4Markets Let a system draw your lines; your job should be to set your Price Target and the expected growth rate (CAGR rate of the slope). This way, your chart will actually represent some fundamental assumptions. It’s harder to say ‘nah’ to those..

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Today’s repricing in Fed fund futures implies: + 50bps tomorrow + 25bps in February + 25bps in March Pivot by November. I see the endgame approaching in terms of rate hikes, but the pivot story and how good that must be for equities is still murky.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

A phenomenon we haven’t seen in a while: Difference in VIX (Implied Vol) / Realized Vol nearing 2 std deviations overbought; tells us investors are finally starting to panic.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

9 months

My rant as a financial adviser... Got a new client. Wants to invest in equities. Aiming for 8-10% annual returns, but only wants to invest in ETFs. In order to start a relationship with this client (and book a commission) I am legally required to create a recommendation that

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

The top companies in the S&P by market cap are on average 11% away from their analyst price targets; sell-side analysts are usually generous by 10% with their assumptions. That leaves very little reward and a lot of risk for investors at current prices.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

9 months

@MichaelAArouet I mean… A.I. obviously!

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

Market Outlook for Q3 2023 One important takeaway from this Q's report: Tech stocks are close to being fully valued. A lot of companies have been taken along for the ride just as a function of their market cap and passive investing flows (QQQ, XLK ETFs). There are

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@ValueStockGeek P/E will take a hit if EPS grows. That’s why it’s better to use EV/EBITDA or EV/Sales for your valuation needs. Less confusing, more professional.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

$TLT up, $QQQ down - a rare occurrence these days; Might this mean a safety trade is finally taking shape? Safety from what? Recession, of course.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Today’s real action is happening in long-term treasuries. Spectacular reversal in $TLT from early December highs; The level we will find a durable bottom in $TLT will tell us more about where equities are headed in 2023 than $SPY itself.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

A new feature of Signal Sigma now lets you request stock reports! You'll be able to obtain a professionally made DCF model and an overall rating and price target for any US listed company

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

The Fed is trying to quell inflation which is primarily driven by energy; rate hikes may not do much. Increasing supply would make more sense, as neither oil production, nor rig counts are at pre-pandemic levels. The green deal is costing us a great deal.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

10 months

@gunsnrosesgirl3 A raspberry pi, hands down. Learning to code changed my life.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Don’t know about you guys, but I actually like where Twitter is headed. I see only beneficial changes since Musk took over (and I’m not a huge fan of his).

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Feels awesome to be featured by the doc himself! 🙏🏻 Thank you, Stephen!

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

$JPM out with another sell side report, simultaneously claiming the market is fairly priced, might have upside, but also downside, depending on your assumptions 🤡 They can recommend some funds either way. Place your bets 🎰

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

2k followers It’s a start! Thank you guys!

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@AlessioUrban @calmeevee I can confirm lower than average dollar transaction volume on US Exchanges. I view this as supportive of a trend reversal pivot - when buyers no longer meet sellers at prevailing prices, it’s hard for the same trend to persist.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Revisiting $SPY “soft landing” scenario, neatly fitting in the current price action to a -10% CAGR trading channel; Mind you, this is not the “bearish case”, just putting Fedspeak on a chart.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Higher than average dollar transaction volume suggests plenty of interest from the recent buyers; I would be worried if dollar volume stalls, while the market rallies - that’s our cue to start exiting any speculative trades.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

2022 has been a brutal year for most retail investors, per Bloomberg. The average stock investor’s portfolio has suffered a 30% drawdown in the past year, doing better than the meme stock and crypto crowd, but lagging the S&P 500.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

10 months

First signs of a transition to a bull market environment One of our instruments shows the number of “stocks overbought” versus “stocks oversold”; spikes in these metrics align well with extremes in sentiment; we also compute levels for each series, showing a 2 standard deviation

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

According to CFRA data, in the last 14 bear markets since 1945, it took an average of 12 months to find the bottom and an average of 23 months to recoup losses. Trading Day # 139 of 252

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@Maverick_Equity @AyeshaTariq Say no more… We provide this chart in the Signal Sigma platform and update it every week. Instruments > Market Fundamentals Confirms @AyeshaTariq ‘s observation

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Sneak peak into the Valuation Wizard! This takes your assumptions about a company’s revenue growth, margin, OPEX etc, builds a 5 year DCF model in minutes and outputs a Price Target and EPS Growth rate to be used in conjunction with our Technical Analysis Instrument 🚀

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@AlessioUrban Romanians are chill at the moment. Oh wait! We are net exporters of nat gas, there’s no gun violence and people don’t attach pronouns to their names… that must have something to do with it.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

7 months

@operationdanish Wow. This is a profoundly anti-capitalistic initiative. Any financially literate person knows that inflation is a monetary policy phenomenon and has nothing to do with corporate pricing. This is aimed purely at getting votes, and the implications are scary, indeed!

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

1 year

@TicTocTick It’s not the bargain that you think it is. The Model Y was overpriced to begin with. At $36K, it beginning to find its real market price, just like $TSLA is.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

9 months

@Culture_Crit Bucharest is my home city, in a highly underrated country with amazing nature.. just look at it! View of my garden ❄️

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Instead of buying $TSLA, why not buy $GNRC? You would be getting a much higher value for your money: Both increase YoY TTM revenues at a 40% rate; Both have a 16% operating margin; Both have a similar profit margin; Yet one costs 10x EV/ Sales, the other just 2.36.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

Remember: During market drawdowns, the biggest threat to your financial well-being is your own behavior; Having a solid process and investment strategy in place is key. I built this platform so investors of all levels can benefit.

Outperforming the Market by Over 250% Since 2007

Signal Sigma provides investment professionals with cutting edge quant research. Our algorithms and trading technology are 100% proprietary and developed in-house.

www.signal-sigma.com

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@MichaelKantro @MishGEA If $SPY cannot convincingly pull off a bounce from current levels, our strategies are also reducing equity risk to zero (Z-Score below -1 and record days since last ATH in a prior uptrend is bad news for risk assets).

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

8 months

@Mayhem4Markets Impressive. Losing that amount being long-only in publicly traded stocks is not an easy feat!

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

This week is all about the inflation numbers, to be released on Wednesday. Investors are absolutely convinced that the only thing that matters is the Fed and interest rates and little else.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@WifeyAlpha Said it before: Rally fades. Bears will short. They are too early. Then another leg higher, until most bears give up Then, bulls that were on the sidelines will deploy cash. They are too late. We tank hard again to SPY 350-360. Bears lose. Bulls lose.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

10 months

@stephenharlinmd Re: ML models and stock picking Millennium Vision was created as a demonstration that any investing style can be "taught" to a machine. Benchmarked to $ARKK, our model almost exactly mirrors @CathieDWood 's flagship fund. Over the last 5 years, it even slightly outperformed.

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

@RaoulGMI On a regression model, we’re already at the low (according to Z-Score) Given the heavy earnings calendar next week, and high potential for volatility, the question facing traders and investors is if SPY can pull off a reversal and bounce convincingly. Any lower and it’s bad news

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

The logical resistance level for this rally on $SPY is 410 - many will start claiming the bear market is over. Notice the technical channel slope (ascending). Bear market finales don't look like that...

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Andrei Sota

@Signal_Sigma

2 years

When was the last time we heard of a "soft landing" in the media? As it turns out, September 2007. According to Google, there were increasing worries about a recession, but nothing really concerning. Today, we are well past the peak interest in “recession” related search terms.

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