Ayesha Tariq, CFA @AyeshaTariq Twitter profile

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

14 days

As always a great interview. It always feels a little surreal when they call me on! 😊

Markets & Mayhem 🤖

@Mayhem4Markets

14 days

Here is @AyeshaTariq 's full appearance on Making Money with @cvpayne . Great interview! 😎👍

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

The dude needs to put a shirt on and come back to run the company. $AMZN

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

There will be books written about the greed and folly that's been created in the last few years. The 80s have nothing on us!

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Merrill Lynch's Investment Clock for the Global Economic Cycle Old one but, fun one...

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

6 months

Who made this 😂

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

This is worse than I thought. The Hang Sang Index has reached 2008 Great Financial Crisis levels.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Oh here we go again. JP Morgan’s game plan for tomorrow’s US CPI.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Every decent investor I know, is bearish about this market. That’s because the data suggests that. Everything about the macro and the fundamental data is negative. And yet, the market continues to march higher in the short term. Jamie Dimon coming in to save First Republic is

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

All eyes on Microsoft but, this is also one to take notice of: Capital One $COF Provision for credit losses $2.42B vs FS $1.88B Net charge-offs $1.43B vs FS $1.32B Credit cards are in trouble and companies are bracing for impact.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Global Real Food Prices have hit record highs.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

We’ve got quite the steep one on our hands…

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Materials needed to build a 500MW Power Plant - Solar, Onshore Wind and Offshore Wind

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Adjusted EBITDA vs EBITDA H/t: Vincent Gala, Schroders

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

$META took out its Covid low today.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

11 months

Unpopular opinion: Nvidia’s 70% margin is a cost for everyone else. $NVDA

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

This is shameful. We’re all creators here. I put my article out for free to help people. Not for people to plagiarize it. I can’t stop that but, this guy was an ex-banker and now creator just like me. I would’ve thought he would have the professional courtesy to give me a nod.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Historically, we've had a major financial failure or a credit event towards the end of a Fed rate cycle. Something almost always breaks...

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Apple cuts Vision Pro sales target to 150K units vs previously discussed 1M units An industry insider tells the Maeil that the initially discussed volume was 1M units, which was then reduced to 300K before being slashed to 150K this time. $AAPL

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Morgan Stanley's target for the $SPX is now 3000 for 2023. 👀

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

These are the companies that will lead us into a new bull market! 😅🙃

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

2022 is the worst year for 10Y US treasuries since 1788 👀

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

PE ratios for EM markets since 2003. This is such an interesting chart.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Apparently, current inflation in the US is less than 3%. I don't live there.... does it really feel like that?

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

3 years

Next week will be super volatile. We have 6 of the top 20 $SPX companies reporting. $AAPL $MSFT $TSLA $JNJ $MA $V and... we have the FOMC on Wednesday. Maybe best if we keep the market closed for the week.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

10 months

None of the macro data is remotely bullish. The Fed pausing rate hikes is not bullish. Oil above $80/bbl is not bullish. Hiding out in 8 stocks is also not bullish.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Looks like this year might be one of those red outliers.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 month

Who made this? 😂

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

4 months

US CPI Preview Tomorrow’s CPI data seems to be getting undue importance. The market is considering this CPI print to be the one that will put a dampener on the Fed cutting rates. I don’t think so. I think the market reacts to it, for sure, but I don’t think that this will

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

11 months

European home prices have finally begun to react to the tightening cycle.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

11 months

South Korea The inflation story is not over....

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Yikes... Capex is falling of a cliff. This makes way for a lower growth cycle for companies. We have earnings declining and a tighter credit environment that exacerbates this. This is not a tech and innovation discussion. If you look at the past, the tracker has remained in

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Container rates are now below pre-pandemic levels.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

8 months

Unrealized losses at US Banks now represent just over 30% of their equity capital. The BTFP expires in March. Should be interesting to see what's next.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

11 months

Never in the history of the US republic have US Treasury returns fallen 3 years in a row - BoFA 👀

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

11 months

China… treating the symptoms, not the cause. CHINA REDUCES TAX ON STOCK TRADING BY 50% TO BOOST MARKET CHINA ORDERS STATE BANKS/FUNDS TO BUY STOCKS

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

The narrative: if $SIVB collapses, the Fed will pivot. Umm… no.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

A quick reminder... we're seeing the most aggressive rate hike cycle in a very..... long time

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

McDonald's says they expect a recession this year. Chipotle says they don't expect a recession this year. Who are you likely to believe? $MCD $CMG

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

$MSFT double miss EPS $2.20 vs $2.29 est Revenue $52.7B vs. $52.9B est. Azure up +20% Windows OEM -39% Source: FactSet

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

4 months

Who made this? 😂

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

8 months

I can’t even imagine how Buffett feels today.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Turkey raises benchmark rate to 15%, after a 6.5% rate hike.

Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Turkey: Rate hike estimates for June 22, 2023 Current rate = 8.5% Goldman Sachs = 40% BoFA = 25% Deutsche Bank = 20% Societe Generale = 15% Standard Chartered = 14% Consensus = 20%

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

The market wants to rally on the multitude of double beats but, we’re rallying to nowhere, as growth actually slows down and margins become less stable Here’s 35 companies that have reported so far this quarter, all with QoQ EPS deceleration & the occasional Revenue deceleration

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

U.S. rent prices climbed 8.8% year over year in February, the biggest rise in almost 42 years. - S&P Global

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

I wonder if people realize what a 100bps hike will do. Or even 75bps for that matter. People who have no idea how monetary policy works and affects bonds & stocks are just trying to be sensational. Let’s see if Powell lives by “go big or go home”. 😅

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

This is certainly not comforting. Bankruptcies in the UK are on the rise and hit a 10-year high.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

US earnings are still at a record high, well above their historical trend.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Great chart from MS. Forward EPS growth is now negative. Note the correlation with $SPX H/t @astek81

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

CPI consensus for this week’s release is 6.5% YoY. Here’s JP Morgan’s game plan…

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

The Fed will not backstop the stock market. [This is my view]

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Even the barista knows my views on the economy. 🧸😅 @Mayhem4Markets

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

This is such an interesting chart from Morgan Stanley. Debt payments are now growing faster than discretionary income. This is not comforting in the slightest and just more proof that the consumer is not strong. We've been discussing this since June 2022.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Forecast Scenarios for the $DXY US Dollar Index from Morgan Stanley

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

7 months

41% of the Russell 2000 = unprofitable companies $IWM PC: JPM-AM

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

JB Hunt $JBHT First Quarter 2023 Revenue: $3.23 billion; down 7% Operating Income: $277.5 million; down 17% EPS: $1.89 vs. $2.29; down 18% The truckers are starting to feel the pressure. The economy is slowing down.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

The BoJ didn’t even last 2 days. They’re back to buying JGBs.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

M2 data for Mar 2023 is out. 🔔 Change is -4.05% YoY @Mayhem4Markets

Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

M2 data for Feb 2023 Money supply change is now -2.35% YoY January was -1.75% YoY December was -1.04% YoY @Mayhem4Markets

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

M2 data just out. We're now at -1.31% YoY for December 2022 @Mayhem4Markets

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Morgan Stanley’s top 10 surprises for 2023

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 month

Ouch... software valuations are now below the March 2020 trough

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

BoFA Bull and Bear Indicator since 2002. We're still not at extreme bullishness.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Druckenmiller sees a hard landing. “He defined a hard landing as unemployment exceeding 5%, corporate profits slumping at least 20% and rising bankruptcies.” - Bloomberg

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

11 months

Inflation in Canada 3.3% -> 4% 😱 The inflation story is not over...

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

A stock chart in watercolor. Made with DALL-E

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 month

Look at that volume! 🤯 $NVDA

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Please bookmark this! We might get a pool going… and see who got closest by the end of the year. 🙃 S&P Year End Forecasts from the Institutions updated as of Jun 30, 2022 $SPX

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

9 months

Where are we now? I'd say in the middle of the slowdown.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

😅😅 $SIVB

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

4 months

About 30% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran seizes Israel-linked ship near the Strait of Hormuz. This is not good. A block could cause +20% increase in oil prices pushing Brent Crude above $100/bbl. PC: BBG

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Equity Risk Premium is at 20 year lows at a time when earnings risk is at 20 year year highs - Morgan Stanley

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Balance Sheets for the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE have reduced -$3.1 trillion in the past 7 months.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Companies with the highest net debt in 2021 / 2022

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

One of the best articles I’ve read on the Fed pivot. A must-read from @dlacalle_IA

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

From the WSJ…. Feels like the bear market rally is coming to an end. 🙃

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

9 months

Interesting developments from the Bank of Japan this morning. They've removed the fixed cap from the YCC band at +/-1% and termed it a "reference rate". They've also removed the need for the 10Y yield to float around the 0.5% mark. This is interesting because now there's no

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

All I heard was... "tighter credit conditions". ☠️

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Brilliant chart from Bain, showing most private equity fund managers have never really seen a cycle of inflation like this. And guess what? This applies to more than just the private equity fund managers.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

8 months

November saw the largest easing in US financial conditions of any single month in the past forty years! PC: GS

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Blackstone is at it again. They fulfilled only 35% of redemption requests in Feb or $1.4B for the BREIT. And guess what? The requests were 26% lower than that for Jan. How long are they going to keep saying everything is just fine? $BX

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

The Yield Curve 10s-2s are now at -0.497%. This is not good at all. @Mayhem4Markets

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

@MariusCrypt0 First of all, I don’t think there’s really any fundamental analysis to be done about crypto. Secondly, GDP growth is not strong. You need to look below the surface to realize that. Thirdly, it’s only a matter of time before unemployment starts to rise with the levels of

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

There's a lot of conjecture floating around about the Fed's actions being QE, their balance sheet and the discount window borrowing. I did a write up with FAQs hoping to provide some clarity on this - FREE for all to read.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Impact of a 1% rise or fall in interest rates. Blue = Fall Grey = Rise 30Y treasuries 👀

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

11 months

Interest rates going up can be a benefit... it just depends on which side of the table you are on!

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

The Rise and Fall of the US Dollar 1913-2019

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

3 months

China sold $53.3 billion of US treasuries & agency debt in Q1. We also know they bought a record amount of gold! Sold treasuries to buy gold….

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

$COIN - Brian Armstrong sells shares. - Cathie Wood sells shares - Receives Wells Notice. What’s going on here? Everyone: “Nothing to see, let’s resume buying this morning.”🤷‍♀️

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Ladies and Gentlemen, let’s thank the Bank of England for our lovely bear market rally today. $SPX $NDX $DJI

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Forward EPS for global stocks are coming down. We’re almost at pre-pandemic levels.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

The home affordability index is sinking like a stone.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Japan took quite the tumble this morning with the Nikkei 225 down -2.60%. Inflation numbers came in this morning with core at 3.2% and core core inflation at 4.3%, both hotter than expected while headline numbers came in lower at 3.2%. After the shock in rate hikes yesterday,

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

I’ll say it again… The Fed will not backstop the stock market.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

This morning from Bloomberg… The bears are not retreating. $SPX

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

30 days

A good reminder from BofA on what kinds of equities are usually preferred during various parts of the economic cycle.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

Earnings estimates continue to remain too high for the S&P 500. We're looking at an impending earnings recession and estimates need to come down.

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

The Yield Curve is now -0.97% @Mayhem4Markets

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

This is interesting. Get set, ready, gooooo!

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

The Yield Curve is down to -0.57%. Everything's going to be just fine! @Mayhem4Markets

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Bear market rallies can be vicious. There have been 20 bear market rallies of over +15% since 1927. And some of them have been quite long. 47 days in 2008 with a rally up to 24%!!

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

2 years

The Housing Market is cooling. April data shows a decline of 8% YoY

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Ayesha Tariq, CFA

@AyeshaTariq

1 year

Most of the world's debt is priced in USD. The USD is also still a safe haven. The demand for USD goes up. That's what these swap lines aim to do: Give temporary relief to other Governments without having to dip into their own Dollar reserves. This is not bullish either.

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