I successfully defended my dissertation:
"Minority Voting and Representation"
Under the watchful eye of old guys hanging on the wall and young girls sitting in the front row.
Here is a thread of the highlights that came out of this research project 🧵
After Kamala Harris' nomination, I talked to a bunch of journalists about our meta-analysis on race/gender in candidate experiments.
With the exception of 1 brave journalist, everyone called me off.
I've never been called off by so many journalists. A 🧵on why I think that is.
I don't know why so many journalists called me off, but I have a hunch.
Our meta-analysis concludes that, on average, voters DO NOT discriminate against minoritized politicians.
Here is the wonderful piece of the one brave journalist
@sterrelindhout
from
@volkskrant
who dared to write a hopeful article about Harris' chances.
I hope more will follow, our representative democracies need us to know this.
Though a bunch of journalists were interested initially, many didn't publish references to our research.
One journalist of a very highly esteemed newspaper even literally said to me: "people aren't interested in good news."
It doesn't fit the narrative of there being so much discrimination by voters?
This is bad news for democracy, because this assumed discrimination is what is hurting woman politicians and politicians of colour, even when voters aren't that old-fashioned anymore.
Yet, I see so many people lamenting that voters do not vote for women of colour so Kamala is doomed, but I'd say meta-analysis shows that it is not so simple.
This wasn't just one study, this is based on more than 300.000 experimental profiles of politicians assessed by respondents in more than 40 studies, mostly fielded in the US.
Even though voters' first impressions are not negative towards politicians of colour or women, party selectors might assume they are and might therefore fear selecting a woman of colour for an important role.
For the people in the back:
The data does not show that Muslims are likely to vote PVV, no matter what
@geertwilderspvv
,
@lale_gul89
,
@OzcanAkyol
, your colleague, some rando at the bar, that old high school friend in your DMs, or whoever, say.
Did Wilders’ PVV attract Muslim voters?
Since his election, there has been much discussion on this, illustrated by vox-pops and personal testimonies, see
@lale_gul89
But what does the data say? A thread.
If successful, these campaigns might be able to change voters' minds. That is what campaigns are aiming for.
But in first impression, voters are just as likely, or more likely, to vote for a woman of colour than a white man.
This meta-analysis was done very rigorously: we went through all the available original datasets and re-analysed the data, using all the latest meta-analysis techniques.
Most importantly, political opponents can mobilize negative stereotypes of women and people of colour.
Remember how Donald Trump's entry into politics was his "Birther" campaign against Barack Obama, questioning whether he was born in the US?
The "Birther" campaign cast doubt on Obama, successfully.
JD Vance tried to mobilize negative stereotypes of women by calling Kamala Harris a "childless cat lady."
Though I believe that attempt at mobilizing negative stereotypes of women was not very successful (yet?).
Did Wilders’ PVV attract Muslim voters?
Since his election, there has been much discussion on this, illustrated by vox-pops and personal testimonies, see
@lale_gul89
But what does the data say? A thread.
🥳Very excited to announce the publication of the first paper of my PhD 🥳
In this single-authored pre-registered paper in
@ElectoralStdies
I ask:
What shapes voter expectations of Muslim politicians’ views on homosexuality: stereotyping or projection?
When I started my PhD, the first paper I started working on was this meta-analysis, in an effort to figure out the average effect size for my power analysis.
Back then, I had NEVER expected a full interview on this paper to be in
@NYMag
's super glamorous
@TheCut
. EVER.
Political scientist Sanne van Oosten finds gender and race are less influential in voters’ perceptions of candidates like Kamala Harris than people think.
🎆Proud to announce the publication of our meta-analysis on race/ethnicity in candidate/conjoint experiments 🎆
📝with
@LizaMugge
and Daphne van der Pas, I ask:
Does race/ethnicity impact how voters assess political candidates⁉️
A thread... 🧵
🎉My dissertation has been officially accepted by my defense committee 🎉
The public defense will take place on October 11th 2024 in Amsterdam.
Now, I'm going to write my acknowledgements. There are so so many people to thank! Stay tuned 😀
🥳First time to ever win a prize in academia 🥳
My colleagues voted for me to win the outstanding collegiality award for helping colleagues.
I won the prize amongst PhDs and Postdocs,
@eefjesteen
for permanent staff.
Thanks so much for organizing
@SLdeLange
and
@GijsSchumacher
Entering Dutch Parliament: feminist, green, intersectional, activist, BLM, Green, LGBTI and the most radical left-wing option on economic issues. This political party is it all. Looking forward to see how Sylvana Simons will change the agenda.
After just handing in my full dissertation, I'm logging off from Twitter or whatever this place is called now for vacation🌳
See you all on September 1st when I start my new Postdoc
@UniofOxford
with
@MFReino
and many more inspiring colleagues, looking forward to it 🤓
Wilders left the formation early (for good?) today.
Right after
@heindehaas
presented research on how migration is nearly impossible to stop through gov policy.
Is this why he left the formation? If so, pretty damn effective scientific impact😅
🥳Hurrah, I received a John Fell Main Award from
@UniofOxford
🥳
This grant will fund studying intersectional stereotyping and instrumentalisation of vulnerable groups in femo-, homo- and Judeonationalist times.
Looking forward to working with
@MFReino
@heypaolo
@distasio_val
Tomorrow, Monday, Oct 9th,
@WBHoekstra
starts as the new EU Climate Chief.
His nomination raised eyebrows due to his past pollution-friendly policies.
During his hearing, he championed ambitious climate action.
Is he genuine or opportunistic?
Tuesday will reveal the answer🧵
Erik Dijkstra interviewed me on the Dutch radio about Judeonationalism: the younger sibling of femo- and homonationalism.
I even got to discuss the research of
@turnbulldugarte
and
@bertous
live on air 🔥
Listen to it here:
I was just interviewed by BBC about the election victory for Wilders, why it is so important, what caused it, whether his ideas have become more mellow/mainstream, and the coalition possibilities.
Stay tuned for a link 👀
Muslims are less likely to vote for the PVV.
Compared to Christian and non-religious (reference category) voters.
Hindu voters are more likely than non-religious voters to vote PVV.
🎉Finally, the meta-analysis is officially published ✅
🤷♀️With page numbers and all that fun stuff
@ActaPolitica
👉Do voters discriminate against racial/ethnic minority politicians?
A meta-analysis with a combined N of 305,632
🎆Proud to announce the publication of our meta-analysis on race/ethnicity in candidate/conjoint experiments 🎆
📝with
@LizaMugge
and Daphne van der Pas, I ask:
Does race/ethnicity impact how voters assess political candidates⁉️
A thread... 🧵
This international women's day, I'm sharing a post by the amazing Alice Evans.
I'm really experiencing that romantic love is a driver of gender equality. This year, my husband and our children all moved to a different country because I got a job at
@UniofOxford
.
Loud and clear so everyone can hear:
Mainstream political parties copying the far-right actually legitimises far-right topics and normalises voting for them.
Great piece by my wonderful Amsterdam colleague
@mrooduijn
I was interviewed by
@sheilasitalsing
on
@oogopmorgen
about the US elections and my PhD/dissertation, which I will publicly defend on October 11th 16:00 in Amsterdam. Let me know if you want to come, everyone is welcome!
Today
@leilasimona
,
@MatiRosina
and I advised a group of employees of the
@FCDOGovUK
on migration policy and politics. I learned so much from these two scholars and it was amazing to take part in an all-women expert panel (a wanel?😅😋)
Today, I am presenting my paper "Surveying Minoritized Citizens: A Quantitative Study of Identification versus Categorization" and some insight into its application in future research with
@MFReino
and
@heypaolo
- 14:15 room C4.01 -
@IMISCOE
#IMISCOE2024
🚨Our meta-analysis is now open access 😅
Based on 43 studies with an N of 305,632, we find that voters do not discriminate against racial ethnic minority politicians. But racial/ethnic minority voters do prefer in-group politicians.
When discussing alternative candidates to Joe Biden, Kamala Harris often gets skipped over.
Do voters dislike black and woman political candidates? NO! (but party strategists might) 🧵
See this meta-analysis on race/ethnicity in candidate experiments:
This paper proves what we, scholars of Homonationalism, were onto all along:
Do nativists who bring up LGBTQ+ rights as an argument against ethnic outgroups really care about LGBTQ+ rights? Or are they using it instrumentally?
They are using it instrumentally. Read this paper!
A new paper with
@bertous
is now out in the
@apsrjournal
In it we essential ask: do nativists become more tolerant of LGBTQ+ rights to distance themselves from ethnic outgroups? 1/🧵
When discussing alternative candidates to Joe Biden, Kamala Harris often gets skipped over.
Do voters dislike black and woman political candidates? NO! (but party strategists might) 🧵
See this meta-analysis on race/ethnicity in candidate experiments:
What a defense by
@rohrbato
🥳
Under the watchful gaze of dozens of dead dudes from way back in paintings on the walls, he presented data from here and now:
Voters and journalists no longer tend to discriminate against women politicians.
Political strategists: beware!
🚨Proud to present the publication of our article about the Dutch political party
@DenkNL
In
@RepJournal
written with
@LizaMugge
,
@hakhverdian
and Daphne van der Pas
It is the 3rd chapter and publication of my PhD, which I defend TODAY! 😅
🎉So excited that our
@DenkNL
-paper has been conditionally accepted for publication, with co-authors
@LizaMugge
,
@hakhverdian
and Daphne van der Pas
This small party in NL attracts mostly Muslim/immigrant-descent voters, but why?
Issues, discrimination or in-group favouritism?
All jokes aside, this is a thing far-right politicians do a lot.
They supposedly stand up for animal (pet) rights (but love eating meat) in an effort to discredit immigrants who are less fond of pets.
After femo-, homo-, and Judeonationalism, I call this Animeauxnationalism😂
A key point missing in a lot of post debate analysis is that Trump’s claim about immigrants eating pets almost perfectly syncs up to the piano in the Peanuts theme song.
Now even more research shows that Kamala Harris' race and gender are more likely to be an asset than a liability.
Assumed discrimination, when there is none, is now causing the most harm.
Party elites: do not underestimate, or hold back, women of colour vying for office! 🧵
Excited that my paper, "Descriptive Representation in an Era of Polarization," is forthcoming at the Journal of Politics! This project started as a very rough draft in my first semester of grad school, and after many rewrites, it's finally out!
Academics will be spending next decades trying to figure this out. Gen Z straight people will be spending the next decades trying to figure out dating.
NEW: an ideological divide is emerging between young men and women in many countries around the world.
I think this one of the most important social trends unfolding today, and provides the answer to several puzzles.
So, we need more research!
But even with the caveats I mentioned and despite all personal testimonies and vox-pops,
I would still hypothesize that Muslims are significantly less likely to vote for Geert Wilders' PVV in 2023 and moving forward.
I'm on BBC Radio discussing the Dutch election results.
With some explanations for Wilders' win:
- Israel
- Agenda-setting
- Legitimisation
- Ambition
Also: Coalitions
+
How Wilders continues to advance an anti-Muslim racist agenda.
From 3:40
To be clear, Dutch citizens with a migration background are also less likely to vote PVV (model 1) than citizens with a migration background.
So are those of Turkish and Moroccan descent (Model 2) and non-Hindu Surinamese voters (model 4).
I asked my children why they think Geert Wilders' PVV is doing so well in the polls, they said:
Because he had the best coverage in the
@jeugdjournaal
, the Dutch newsprogram for children.
They showed him cuddling kittens in the cutest way possible.
Since the election of Geert Wilders' PVV, I have been interviewed for a bunch of media, here is a 🧵
I was on BBC The Real Story for an hour with
@BBCShaunLey
and the amazing panelists
@CFieschi
and
@spignal
.
Dear journalists,
Thank you for proving to me that you ARE interested in "good news."
The interest in our meta-analysis has been overwhelming!
I can't answer all the e-mails requesting interviews anymore. But I will try. Am also going to enjoy summer ☀️
After Kamala Harris' nomination, I talked to a bunch of journalists about our meta-analysis on race/gender in candidate experiments.
With the exception of 1 brave journalist, everyone called me off.
I've never been called off by so many journalists. A 🧵on why I think that is.
Today my dear PhD friend
@MaaikeHoman
will defend her dissertation. Throughout the entire PhD I have been so impressed with her intelligence, rigour and dedication. I can't wait to see her finish it in style 🎉
Today at 13:00, it's time for PhD
@MaaikeHoman
to defend the thesis 'Citizens´ Affective, Cognitive and Behavioral Responses to the Emotional Displays of Politicians'. Supervised by
@GijsSchumacher
&
@bnbakker
.
🍀 Good luck, Maaike! 👩🎓
🎥 Watch it live:
As a researcher on the role of anti-Muslim racism in politics and society, I can confirm that the below can be backed up by a lot of research.
Here is an overview of research that shows us to be critical of political elites using anti-Semitism to justify anti-Muslim racism 👇
Lee Anderson’s comments about Sadiq Khan were racist and inflammatory. It's right he was suspended.
But we shouldn't kid ourselves. Whilst his words were cruder than most, they were far from isolated.
I am truly frightened at the way Islamophobia is being stoked in Britain. 1/9
12 years of couchsurfing together, hanging out together, then co-authoring together,
@mz_0404
and I now enjoyed conferencing
@ICR_Network
and publishing
@PUB_INTEGRITY
together ❤️
Stay tuned for our thread of the paper, here's the link:
I will miss Dennis Spies unbelievably. His work with
@sabrinajmayer
and Achim Goerres (
@Emp_Politikwiss
) shapes my work in profound ways. I had the honor of attending a presentation by him for
@EthMigSurveyDat
in 2018 in Bucharest. We have lost an amazing researcher and person.
Here's a wonderful memoriam for Dennis Spies
by Achim Goerres (
@Emp_Politikwiss
)
He will be greatly missed.
Our condolence, also as co-chairs of
@CES_Europe
's Political Economy & Welfare Research Network (with
@NataschaZwan
& T. Inglot), to his family, friends, & colleagues
Wilders' PVV is more successful in municipalities with an older population, while the party performs worse in agrarian areas. However, the variable with the strongest effect by far is education: the bigger the proportion of people with higher education, the lower the PVV result.
My analysis also shows that these effects are completely explained by attitudes towards religious freedoms for Muslims and seeing immigration as an asset or burden.
Here is my presentation at
#hotpoliticslab
with
@GijsSchumacher
and
@bnbakker
- I presented a working paper on descriptive, substantive and symbolic representation amongst minoritized citizens in France, Germany and the Netherlands - thanks for having me
"Do women and people of colour get fewer votes in Canada? New studies say 'No.'"
This time
@DouglasTodd
wrote about our meta-analysis in a Canadian newspaper, with
@avkevins
@semrasevi
@randybesco
reflecting on how our findings extend to Canada.
First, it is very difficult to gather high-N data on minoritized citizens, due to privacy regulations (rightfully!) restricting saving information about religion (remember World War 2?).
Hi
@tabouchadi
, according to my
#SpotifyWrapped
I listened to your podcast for more than 1000 minutes, making it my
#1
podcast. Thought you'd like hearing that. When are you recording new episodes?
Since my dissertation was on minority in-group voting, I had some data lying around about Muslims propensity to vote for the PVV.
Of course Muslims do not tend to vote for Wilders.
I talked about this with
@emvdg
of
@NUnl
Omdat de geweldige
@ZahraRunderkamp
met zwangerschapsverlof is, mocht ik haar column in Binnenlands Bestuur voor een keertje overnemen:
Het is een tipje van de sluier voor mijn nieuwe onderzoek naar waarom mensen radicaal rechts stemmen en de rol van uitsluiting/racisme.👇
Lees 'Waarom stemmen mensen PVV?', de column van Sanne van Oosten. 'Bestrijd zondebokpolitiek en verbeter tegelijk de economische positie van alle Nederlanders, van welke kleur of geloofsovertuiging dan ook.'
@SBvanOosten
#pvv
#onderzoek
#economie
The ruling VVD party leader is no longer Mark Rutte, but Dilan Yeşilgöz. She is vehemently disliked by minoritized voters, saying “rather Geert than Dilan”
"Political parties that promote equality will gain electoral advantages by including Muslim politicians and strongly countering homonationalist ideas" - Check out the blog I wrote for
@ECPR
@ECPR_TheLoop
:
Keep in mind that when you ask if Kamala can win, you’re really asking, “Is this country too racist and too sexist to vote for a woman of color for president?”
To be honest, I don’t know the answer to that question. None of us do with any certainty.
FWIW, I think she can win.
Another advantage Kamala Harris has is her potential to benefit from✨in-group voting ✨
Here is an overview of the research I have done on in-group voting and why it will benefit Kamala Harris 🧵
After Kamala Harris' nomination, I talked to a bunch of journalists about our meta-analysis on race/gender in candidate experiments.
With the exception of 1 brave journalist, everyone called me off.
I've never been called off by so many journalists. A 🧵on why I think that is.
Had a wonderful time at the
@CEPDISCresearch
conference.
Presenting data that is hot off the presses is always the most fun, got amazing feedback from
@KStuckradt
and
@ChloeLavest
Stay tuned for more research outcomes from the
@EqualStrength_
project 💪
Thank you so much
@AnnKristinKolln
for taking me in tow as a mentor during my first
#EPOP
. It was amazing, also because you introduced me to so many people!
Minoritized voters are critical of the support for Ukrainian refugees because of the stark difference in treatment of refugees from Muslim and non-white majority countries.
Dilan and Ukraine might have made Muslims more likely to vote for PVV in the 2023 elections.
Just had an interview with
@BBCJamesM
on
@BBCNewshour
about whether Wilders will be NL's next PM.
Though it seems less and less likely, nothing is certain.
Also, nobody knows what "extraparliamentary" means, but it was a great excuse to talk Trias Politica live on air 😅🤓
@WBHoekstra
On Tuesday, Oct 10th, at 3 PM CET, the Dutch Parliament will vote on a motion proposed by Green
@groenlinks
@suzanne_GL
and Liberal Democrat
@D66
MPs to create plans for phasing out fossil subsidies
I really like this tweet. Working in academia is a privilege - of course it has downsides - but there are upsides too. What are your favorite personal reasons to work in academia? Mine is to be encouraged to be curious every day.
People in academia who’ve never had a job outside of this bubble, trust me, you have no idea what you’re talking about. The food industry/customer service field will bring you to your knees in a week.
I’d do a PhD all over again rather than go back to work at the family business
So proud of my colleague Dr. Ellis Aizenberg, defending her thesis with conviction in these ongoing challenging times. Lobbying Alone & Defending Together.
Respondents answered on a scale from 0 to 10.
Only 1.3% of the respondents responded above the midpoint (5). Not a single respondent answered 8, 9, or 10.
For 76% of the respondents voting PVV is a no-go as they answered 0.
But with enough funding, time and, energy it is possible to ask enough respondents about their religion to get a large enough sample of Muslims. Because the data is anonymized it is GDPR-proof.
Yesterday I finally got to defend my PhD thesis in front of a wonderful committee, great colleagues, dear friends and family! I could not have wished for a better end to this PhD journey 🥳🥹☺️
If I control for these attitudes, Muslim, Turkish, Moroccan and Surinamese Dutch voters are just as likely to vote for the PVV as non-religious voters without a migration background.