Ryan Mooney @RyanRMooney Twitter profile

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

9 months

Kudos to Stifel for a creative take on energy stocks. #COM Currently, EnergyCos are at discounted valuations & FCF yields (~11%) similar to TobaccoCos in the late 80’s (~8-14%), just prior to their being the top performer over the next 20 years!

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Positive news re: Blueberry First Nations (BBFN) situation —> BC OGC issued its first round of new well licenses in over a year to Petronas, Arc $ARX.TO, and Ovintiv $OVV. Formal resolution in coming weeks? Positive (in order of impact) for $ARX.TO, $CEI.V, $CR.TO, and $TOU.TO.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

10 months

One of the best charts I’ve seen published in a long time! The combo of low debt and sustainably high ROE will bring international funds flow back to the energy space, and with the currency and valuation advantages of Cdn > US energy companies, I remain strongly bullish.

Eric Nuttall

@ericnuttall

10 months

It's a mystery to me why the energy sector remains so hated and ignored. No other sector remotely comes close to comparing: lowest debt + highest profitability, combined with highest free cashflow and months away from 75%-100% return of capital inflection.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 months

Interesting! By Jefferies on value of $GALP discovery: on 10 bn bbl OOIP & 3 bn bbl rec (30% RF) @ US$5/bbl NPV = US$735 MM ($1,015 MM) to $SEI.V 4.9% “carried” int = ~$2.75/sh + $0.05/sh W/C + $0.20/sh expl port = >$3.00/sh (still +230% from current $0.90/sh).

SteveTTF

@5LFour

2 months

@RyanRMooney @sintanaenergy $SEI.V Hey Ryan, not sure if you caught the latest comments by analyst at Jefferies yesterday in Upstream article, Woodmackenzie now giving Namibian discoveries $5USDbbl....and check the valuation given on GALP p/s unrisked.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

$ROK.V sells ~10% of prod’n & ~20% of NOI for ~35% of EV; sells ~15% of prod’n for ~78% of FCL acq. price; nearly eliminates senior debt with int savings that add ~10% to CF; has capital to grow organically or w/ A&D w/o dilution, trades at ~1.7x EBITDA & ~0.9x PDP NAV. 👏

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

3 months

Interesting chart by Echelon Research highlighting share price upside by name, incl hedges, to a +US$10/bbl move in WTI assuming each name keeps its same existing 2024E EV/EBITDA multiple. Amongst those >10,000boe/d, most upside torque in $GTE.TO, $JOY.TO, $SGY.TO, and $BNE.TO.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

$ROK.V Ops PR - Solid: prod’n ahead + higher realized pricing = more FCF = reduced YE22E exit net debt to $26 MM (from $30 MM). Trades at peer-leading ~50% FCF yield ($40 MM FCF on $80 MM EV). Debt free by 2Q23E; 50% of FCF is $0.10/sh divvy, 8% yield is >$1.25/sh (+345% upside).

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

$ROK.V 3Q22: 1) prod’n 3,500 boe/d yields $14.5 MM NOI ($43/boe, 52% margin) placing run-rate valu’n at ~2.0x EV/EBITDA with a ~0.5x D/EBITDA; 2) ~65% of N6M oil hedged at >US$93/bbl; and 3) IMPORTANT, per May 9, 2022 PR, it hit its YE22E exit & net debt target a quarter early!

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

11 months

My view on $ROK.V Q2: prod’n in-line, CF a bit light due to one-time higher opex due to w/o & reacts on recently acquired properties, B/S is real clean, we are loaded up like a coil funded to grow to >4,500 boe/d at YE23E ($23k/boe/d, 2.3x EBITDA) with lithium catalysts upcoming!

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

3 months

Oil is up +20% & the $XEG Energy Index, which is HEAVILY wtd to large caps like $CNQ $SU $TOU $CVE & $ARX, has moved up +30%. BUT, the more discounted higher torque smid caps like $JOY $SOIL $HAM & $ROK have lagged —> IMO, cue a smid cap catch-up trade as profits move down cap!

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

10 months

Echelon initiates coverage of $ROK.V with OP recommendation and $0.55/sh target (+47% return): “Overall, we see a solid re-rate opportunity with multiple catalysts to drive the stock higher.” Link:

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

3 months

Yesterday’s AB land sale highlights industry interest in $JOY.TO Duvernay play: 57.5 sections sold for a total of $46.8M (all to brokers), ~$0.8M/section. $JOY.TO has >30 net sections immediately adjacent, adding $0.40/sh, none of which is reflected in the stock in my view.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

11 months

On $ROK.V - Q2 is Aug 17: current f.d. EV ~$105 MM with ~3,300 boe/d ($32k/boe/d) & ~$35 MM EBITDA (3.0x); but, WTI up +US$10/bbl & +35% growth to YE23E at ~4,500 boe/d, a static valuation multiple implies +25-30% upside to >$0.50/sh (from $0.38/sh). Exciting back half upcoming!

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

$VET.TO sold 5,500 boe/d of conv Sask oil properties for $225 MM ($41k/boe/d) (rumoured to PrivCo Taprock, former Highrock team). Regardless, per public guidance, acq metric implies +110% upside to $5.55/sh (basic) for $SOIL.V and +50% upside to $0.56/sh (basic) for $ROK.V.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

On $ROK.V, through just 1Q23E, as a result of acquiring 1,000 boe/d for $26.5 MM and selling 450 boe/d of non-core non-op unitized interest for $47.25 MM, they’ve increased their prospective drilling inventory, 1P & 2P NAV (after debt) by +25% and +35% to $0.59/sh and $1.17/sh.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

4 months

Pretty amazing the impact the successful Namibian offshore drilling by Shell, Total, and GALP has had on Sintana $SEI.V. “Of 17 pure exploration wells since February 2022, there have been 15 confirmed discoveries of commercial quantities of oil or gas.”

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Someone walked out of the #COM meeting with my left glove and I have your right glove. Please help!!

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Curious, which company do we all think has the biggest most share price impactful “surprise” dividend / buyback / return of capital announcement at the upcoming earnings cycle? $CJ.TO, $CPG.TO, $ARX.TO, $VET.TO, $SGY.TO, $PNE.V, $FRU.TO

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

$ROK.V & $ROK.WT trading liquidity picking up, mitigating reason for discount: ~1.5x 2022E EBITDA vs peers @ >2.5x, implies $0.70/sh, +100% upside. When oil under pressure, ROK-V benefits relative to peers as ~70% of prod’n hedged @ >US$93/bbl WTI, best hedge book in the basin!

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

11 months

I have a lot of respect for @Josh_Young_1 and his abilities to find value in the energy space. Keen to see where he will point us this time.

Josh Young

@Josh_Young_1

11 months

It's been almost 5 years since we sold Iron Bridge for a 78% premium to its pre-deal price. Time for Bison to get a little more active. 🦬

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

$ROK.V & $ROK.WT strong 2Q22: 1) NOI $18 MM (NB: $66/boe), EBITDA $17 MM ($0.09/sh, +15% to ann. guid.), FCF $12 MM, ND $38 MM (0.6x D/EBITDA); 2) ND to $25 MM YE22E, nil mid-23E; 3) updated 2022E val’n: 1.5x EBITDA, 2.0x FCF, 40%+ FCF yield for +17% YoY growth & 55% debt repaid.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Few asking my thoughts on $PIPE.TO post 30% sell-off on shift in bus strat & “ok” drill results on eastern lands: 1) big picture long term smart to shift to a s/h return on capital focus vs a growth strategy in an inflationary market where nobody ascribed a growth multiple; and

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

Saturn $SOIL.V to buy Ridgeback (private) for $516 MM ($496 MM net of ~$20 MM cash at closing). Gross metrics are 1.7x NOI, 2.3x FCF or 44% FCF yield, & 0.6x PDP NPV.

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. Announces Acquisition of Ridgeback Resources Inc. Expanding Production to...

/NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION OR DISSEMINATION DIRECTLY, OR INDIRECTLY, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN OR...

www.newswire.ca

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

3 months

Kudos to @sohaibab9 for hosting @AlexVergeJOY to speak on $JOY.TO prospects post deal. Big takeaway: Alex believes strongly in his YE23 PDP NAV of $5/sh, w/ tangible upside to grow to >$7/sh by YE24 (+100% upside) as Med Hat oil & two add’l power projects come online this year.

Josh Young

@Josh_Young_1

3 months

Journey's CEO @AlexVergeJOY was interviewed on a live @X space yesterday evening. Alex addressed Journey's recent financing, their heavily discounted valuation and their go-forward plan. I own shares of $joy.to - caveat emptor.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

10 months

Echelon initiates coverage of $SOIL.V with Top Pick Outperform recommendation and $5.65/sh target (+109% return): “We believe that as this debt is extinguished, the market will re-rate the stock higher as the Company's risk profile improves.” Link:

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Hammerhead Resources (private), which offsets Pipestone Energy $PIPE.TO, vends into a US-SPAC at a $1.4 BN value (~3.5x & ~2.2x 2022E & 2024E EBITDA), to imply +35-50% upside in $PIPE.TO to >$5.00-5.50/sh (from $3.65/sh).

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

NCAA Elite Eight in Vegas - what a time!! #UCONN #ZAGA #mmselfie

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

$ROK.V ops update: 1) completed 4 (1.2 net) reacts for $970k w/ IP60 of 135 boe/d (60% liq) = top-quart. cap eff. of <$8k/boe/d & added 9 (9.0 net) new react targets to bring on-stream in 1H23E; and 2) drilled 2 (0.6 net) Dunvegan (IP18: 180 boe/d) / Gething (IP: pending, Nov).

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

11 months

$SOIL.TO leads last 1-mo & 1-yr: trades ~1.6x 23E EBITDA & ~0.3x PDP NAV, FCF reduces debt ~$20 MM per month (+6% to equity) to ~0.7x D/EBITDA by YE23E, two warrant tranches wiped away, recent insider buys by CEO & major s/h’s, +ve technicals, new Bakken multi-lats upcoming.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

8 months

Crazy to me just how “consensus” #COM feels right now on their particular stock views. Case in point, pick a portfolio of names to own with a 3-month view (will follow-up with performance results at period end):

WCP, CPG, BTE, TVE, SGY

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CNQ, CVE, MEG, SCR

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ARX, TOU, PEY, JOY, PNE

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VET, SOIL, ROK, OBE, TCF

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

@Gugo907 The CO2 injections are the very reservoir drive mechanism that is required to economically recover the oil from Weyburn. Outside of the potential benefits related to the ESG narrative, this is absolutely not a waste of money. $WCP.TO

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

At the strip incl. hedges $ROK.V says to be debt free by mid-2023E with 3,500 boe/d doing ~$70 MM CF and ~$45 MM of FCF; even 25% of that FCF supports a $0.06/sh divvy (24% current yield). At an 8% yield the CS imply $0.75/sh (+200%) and the W would be $0.55/sh (+450%)? 🤔🤫

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Also, can we talk about how the $WCP.TO deal reads through very positively to other small cap Montney companies who are ripe for takeout?! Think $PIPE.TO by 2023E —> the deal metrics of 3.5x CF, $60k/boe/d & 15% FCF yield imply +60% upside to nearly $7.00/sh (from $4.25/sh).

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

5 months

$SOIL.TO P+P reserves up +131% YoY to 145 MMBoe on FD&A costs (incl. FDC) of $15/Boe (recycle ratio of 3.1x). Deep value —> BT PDP NAV (net of all debt) is $6.72/sh and P+P NAV is $16.69/sh (vs trading at $2.40/sh). 👀

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

$CJ.TO - looks great Q1 results to me: 1) $0.05/sh/mo (9.0% yield) above market expectations & now nearly 2x the size of all others in the space, a 6.7% yield implies 35% upside to $9.00/share (3.8x EBITDA), a 5.0% yield implies +80% upside to $12/share (5.1x EBITDA);

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

6 months

For those interested. This is the only report I’ve seen published by a third-party on $SEI.V today. @gopatsgoat1

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

3 months

WTI crude is actually down 1% today to US$85/bbl but $SOIL.TO is up +6% to $2.91/sh, significantly outperforming its smid-cap oil-wtd peers on a 5-day basis (+15%), and neck-and-neck with $OBE.TO on a YTD basis (+30%). Where do we settle at if oil holds US$85/bbl?

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Trillion $TCF.C 1st well test ~7.0-8.2 mmcf/d,+50% above ~4-5 mmcf/d in reserve report. On cost of US$8-10 MM, at ~5 MMcf/d with netback of >$150/boe at US$31/mcf gas, payout in <70-90 days. Well cash flow >US$15 MM in 1st yr and will payout ~4-5x over its life. Great economics!!

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

9 months

$PIPE.TO aggressively selling off this morning (-6%): Mr. Market disappointed Strath has not bumped up the x-ratio to obtain broader S/H support, Mgmt & Board confident the Strath deal will go, and the market thinks the PF should trade lower. 1 hr left for S/H to vote their view!

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

$PIPE.TO, my +ve take on update? 1) prod: record Q meets guidance (33,800 boe/d), reiterates 2023E forecasts (35,000 boe/d = +13% growth w/ $415 MM CF [2.3x] & $150 MM FCF [6.3x]); 2) 4Q Fin: FFO up + capex down = FCF up +170% QoQ to $70 MM & ND down -35% to $117 MM (0.2x CF);

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

$ROK.V reserves: PDP NAV (basic) is $0.40/sh at strip ($0.35/sh on reserve evals deck incl. benefit of hedges). Peers $SGY.TO, $CJ.TO, $TVE.TO, $GXE.TO, $JOY.TO and $IPO.TO trade at an avg of ~1.5x PDP NAV at reserve evals deck - implies $ROK.V to trade at $0.53/sh (+77% upside).

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

Since YE22, $ROK.V has also reduced net debt by -65% to just $10 MM & reduced cost of borrow to ~10% from a Canadian Chartered (from >15% from a Private Lender). The team continues to execute, making smart moves to protect downside and increase upside torque to equity.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

10 months

@chrisinmontreal That’s a 7.5% discount to source $4 billion of equity - seems more than fair to me?

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

3 months

@NuggetCapital @BDEPardell There’s few CEOs aligned with shareholders like Alex Verge at $JOY.TO. He’s invested nearly $20 MM of his own cash at an avg cost of ~$5/sh. I trust him and his team to execute on the Med Hat oil & power portfolio in 2024 and the Duvernay in 2025, together could double its value.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

3 months

Given the unrest in the Middle East, I wouldn’t want to be short oil or an oil stock like $SOIL.TO heading into the weekend. At these prices, free cash flow to reduce net debt of ~$320 MM post equity & asset sale is ~$20-25 MM/month ($0.15/sh, or +6% which accretes to equity).

Bullish Trend

@trend_bullish

3 months

$SOIL.TO on the move @KramerKarma1

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

Saturn $SOIL.V CEO, John Jeffrey, on BNN: “Market is Valuing us at Only About One Years Cash Flow.” Link:

Market is valuing us at only about one year's cash flow: Saturn Oil & Gas CEO

John Jeffrey, CEO of Saturn Oil & Gas, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the latest acquisition of Ridgeback Resources. He believes this transaction could boost the company's debt to about $350 million...

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

$ROK.V (at $0.24/sh) out with first-ever corp pres post-deal which highlights that, at strip, incl WTI / NYMEX hedges (75% at US$94/bbl & US$4.10/mmbtu), it will do 2022E EBITDA & DAFCF of $58 MM (trades at 1.1x vs peers at 3.2x) and $42 MM (trades at 1.6x vs peers at 5.7x).

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 months

Obviously positive $SEI.V, and would expect a PR from them soon to describe farm-in terms by $CVX; however, note that PEL 82 is to the north in the Walvis Basin – $EOG.V has four offshore Namibian blocks also in the Walvis Basin, with two directly offsetting PEL 82. #DYODD

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@OriginalBraila

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😛

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

$ROK.V 2022E guidance: capex $18 MM (10 wells & 12 w/os) for +18% growth to >3,500 boe/d at YE22E which, at strip incl WTI / NYMEX hedges (75% @ US$94/bbl & US$4.10/mmbtu), yields EBITDA of >$60-65 MM (+10% to corp pres) to trade ~1.1x EV/EBITDA (peers: 3.1x, implies >$0.90/sh).

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

3 months

I agree with @ericnuttall , seems silly to attack one of the most profitable sectors in Canada! But if a windfall tax was introduced, would it target the larger caps? Could funds flow move down market so small caps that trade at ~2-3x trade more in line with large caps at ~5-6x?

Eric Nuttall

@ericnuttall

3 months

Any "windfall" tax on Canadian energy companies would be an attack on a sector that will already pay over $50BN in royalties and taxes this year, and an insult to investors who endured the worst energy bear market in history and are now finally being justly rewarded.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 months

$SEI.V, an amazing success story for intl small cap O&G: institutionally capitalized at $0.15 with a FW at $0.25, now trades at >$0.80 post $GALP DST (10 bn bbl OOIP & >14mboe/d). With likely >3 bn rec @ US$1-3/bbl = $0.46-1.25/sh + the expl portfolio & cash = SOTP >$1.50/sh imo.

CDNResourceInvestor

@CdnResourceInv

2 months

This could get interesting…. Fast 🚨GALP Energia reportedly shopping half their PEL 83 interest. If the market doesn’t understand what $SEI.V @sintanaenergy has,they will!!🚨 Exciting times! Always DYODD @AllStreetsWolf @TommyDeepwater @RyanRMooney @MagonPeter @gopatsgoat1

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Think we’ve reached the part of the bull cycle to take profits, cycle cash down cap and into laggards. Personally I expect to see a bit of a catch-up trade in $SU.TO to $CNQ.TO, $ARX.TO to $TOU.TO, $CPG.TO to $BTE.TO, $CJ.TO & $BNE.TO to $GXE.TO, $KEL.TO & $BIR.TO to $AAV.TO.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

3 months

@naubzie $ROK.V existing Sask inventory just became a little more valuable with the new Govt Royalty incentives.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

11 months

$PIPE.TO / Strath a ‘win-win’; few deets on valuation in PR; large cap oils trade ~$70k/boe/d, ~4.5x DACF, & ~1.0x 1P AT NPV10 = PF equity of ~$10.1 BN, ~$9.3 BN, ~$13.0 BN & $PIPE.TO gets 9.05% = $915 MM ($3.25/sh, +20%) / $845 MM ($3.00/sh, +10%) / $1,175 MM ($4.20/sh, +55%).

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

10 months

Interesting development on $PIPE.TO: @Josh_Young_1

GMT Capital Corp. Opposes Proposed Acquisition of Pipestone Energy Corp. by Strathcona Resources...

ATLANTA, Sept. 15, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GMT Capital Corp. (

www.globenewswire.com

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

6 months

$ROK.V (25% WI) / $EMPS.V (75% WI) out with their Sask lithium brine PEA; on account of shallower depth, higher grades, and less impurities, a ~55% IRR looks like the most economic I’ve seen put out by any Cdn brine project (at ~25-35% IRR), incl $ETL.V, $LBNK.V, $GRD.V, etc.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

3 months

For those following the changing royalty regime in Sask, Echelon notes new royalty incentives save ~$0.85M on royalties per Bakken OHML well drilled on Crown land, boosting the AT NPV per well by ~$0.6M. $SOIL.TO has 107 locs, ~25 on Crown lands = value uptick of +$14M ($0.10/sh)

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

3 months

On $SOIL.TO, at first blush these Sask Gov royalty incentives look to add ~$0.5-1.0 MM NPV per well on up to 30 OHML Bakken / Spearfish wells in inventory on Crown lands, plus they have another 70 locs on lands where they pay no royalties because they own the Freehold rights.

Tom MacInnis

@tommacinnis

3 months

Thx Danny Boy Payne for doing the work - I'm 'borrowing' it... Saskatchewan Royalty Incentive Update - New royalty incentives in the province should augment the economics and returns of new multi-lateral development, and ultimately serve as another structural tailwind for

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

9 months

In speaking to #COM about the $PIPE.TO / Strath deal, most who have vocally supported the transaction with Strath also indicate that they don’t own any shares to vote, whereas those who oppose tend to be the vocal voters with shares. Voting deadline: Monday 10am MT. We will see…

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

ROK.V closed y’day at >$0.30, up +20% in the last five trading days on good volume, and despite that oil is down 10%. Clearly looks like the market is optimistic on ops update which will detail the first organic drilling program results post Federated acquisition.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

6 months

@NuggetCapital Spoke to a well informed institutional client: possible CVE is getting hammered due to Q4 refining trending poorly and possibly debt target gets pushed out again? Also some insider buys to consider which would prevent big ticket M&A.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

10 months

Echelon initiates coverage of $JOY.TO with OP recommendation and $7.15/sh target (+23% return): “We believe that as power makes a more meaningful contribution to revenues in 2024 and beyond, Journey will see a sustained lift in valuation.” Link:

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

9 months

GMT to reject $PIPE.TO txn b/c: 1) x-ratio too low, dilutive, to trend lower post-deal given premium valuation; 2) large PE share overhang; 3) if deal voted down, other bidders to emerge with cash & shares at a higher price; 4) O&G prices rising, inventory & land value increased;

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

6 months

On $ROK.V / $EMPS.C lithium value, $ETL.V has an EV of $120 MM (net of $40 MM in cash) with an AT NPV8 PEA val of US$1.1 BN, it trades at 0.11x, which when implied to $ROK.V / $EMPS.C AT NPV8% of US$1.1 BN means $120 MM ($30 MM $0.14/sh +50% to ROK, $90 MM $0.92/sh +75% to EMP).

Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

6 months

$ROK.V (25% WI) / $EMPS.V (75% WI) out with their Sask lithium brine PEA; on account of shallower depth, higher grades, and less impurities, a ~55% IRR looks like the most economic I’ve seen put out by any Cdn brine project (at ~25-35% IRR), incl $ETL.V, $LBNK.V, $GRD.V, etc.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

3) look at the $PIPE.TO Board - Riverstone, GMT and Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth have a grand plan they’re able and willing to fully fund & execute, they won’t give this asset away for anything less than what it’s worth - happy to align myself with smart money. #BuyingOpportunity

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

10 months

Momentum continues to build on $SOIL.TO now >$3.00/sh (up +42% from Ridgeback deal) and still trading at ~1.4x strip 2024E EV/EBITDA (vs peers at 2.0x); a re-rate to peer average implies $4.50/sh (+50% upside from here).

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

11 months

$PIPE.TO / Strath highlight 25% decline on ~185,000 boe/d at $20k/boe/d cap eff is ~$925 MM sust. capex vs est. CF of ~$2,700 MM ($40/boe NB) to imply ~$1,775 MM FCF; a peer avg FCF yield of 11% means a $16.1 BN EV & $13.2 BN Mkt Cap, or $1.2 BN ($4.25/sh, +55%) net to $PIPE.TO.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

$LXE.V news out: 10-year gas processing deal supports 6x growth to 25mboe/d (from 4mboe/d) in just two years + $55 MM of non-dilutive funding for battery construction, positive delineation well on 50 new sections of Montney in Mica play in AB (which offsets BC Blueberry delays)

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

Although a few yrs behind AB, I’m liking potential of $EMPS.C (75% WI) and $ROK.V (25% WI) Sask-based Li brines: 1) higher concentrations >150mg/L = lower supply cost; 2) resource & PEA & DLE pilot in 1H23E while Li >$70,000/T; and 3) M&A heating up - Prairie gone for >$70 MM. 👀

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

@cckanaan @WSB_redditor @garquake Let me get this straight, in 2023E, $PIPE.TO has a +16% FCF yield (to EV) for debt repayment, div, SIB, and NCIB, after growing PPS/CFPS +15% YoY (total return: +31%), is a prime take-out target, nearly debt free, and trades at sub-2.0x EBITDA & PDP, & insiders are buying? 🤔

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

On $EMPS.C / $ROK.V: unique strategy - combo of highest Li concentration, shallow depth, no contaminants, & high flow rates to translate to impeccable PEA economics, peer-leading project IRR, & lowest supply cost amongst AB / Sask brine producers? What wins - quality or scale?

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

9 months

GMT says 4 larger liquid MontneyCos NOW interested in $PIPE.TO at a higher price; PIPE rebuts with Strath deal best after a process run 18 months ago. Look at the performance of $PIPE.TO vs other potential buyers; the market has changed so buyers can do a more accretive deal.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 months

Objective & honest write-up on $JOY.TO; now at a price where downside seems limited & upside profound: 1) leverage low, debt refi’d w/ heavy-handed strategic s/h’s, 2) power biz funded & ramping in 2H, and 3) Duvernay JV w/ $SDE.TO to outpace expectations & bring growth multiple.

HFI Research

@HFI_Research

2 months

$JOY

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Just getting started - very exciting!!

Sohaib Abbas

@sohaibab9

2 years

Congratzz 2 the $ROK.V lads @JaredLukomski & @brydenwright04 on a new 52 week high today, on the running to make up 10% of the port.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

11 months

@Josh_Young_1 from @BisonInterests out with a white paper this morning expressing their firm view to vote against the proposed $PIPE.TO / Strath RTO transaction.

Bison is Opposed to Pipestone's Take-Under by Strathcona

(Important Disclaimer at the Bottom)

bisoninterests.com

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Coelacanth $CEI.V trades today! $CEI.V is the spin-out from $LXE.V, where upon its corporate sale to $VET.TO, $LXE.V s/h’s received $1.73/sh in cash + 1 sh in $CEI.V worth $0.27/sh + 0.2 $CEI.V purchase warrants, exercisable into 1 add’l sh in $CEI.V at $0.27/sh until June 30.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Feels like Cdn E&Ps are just about to meet debt paydown targets, and investors are expecting big divvy / buyback bumps (or re-in-statements). If they don’t come, will we see a sell-off? Who are we expecting the biggest moves from? For me, $CJ.TO, $CPG.TO, $ARX.TO, $VET.TO.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Breaking re: Sintana $SEI.V & $SEI.WT: Chevron $CVX.US said to farm-in to an 80% WI at PEL-90 block offshore Namibia in Orange Basin at ascribed >US$125 MM for block, implies ~US$10-12.5 MM value for $SEI.V 10% WI. If validated by $SEI.V in a PR, ~50% upside vs ~US$25 MM EV?

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Coolest thing I’ve heard in the past year: $1,000 is only 10 doubles away from $1,000,000. 💡

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

Since a week ago, $EMPS.C is up +20% to a $40 MM mkt cap for its 75% WI in the Mansur Sask lithium brine. $ROK.V, a 25% WI holder, is down -7%. Ask yourself, is there $13 MM of value in $ROK.V ($140 MM EV for 4,500 boe/d = 2.5x CF & $30k/boe/d) for its Li exposure? I think no.

Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

Although a few yrs behind AB, I’m liking potential of $EMPS.C (75% WI) and $ROK.V (25% WI) Sask-based Li brines: 1) higher concentrations >150mg/L = lower supply cost; 2) resource & PEA & DLE pilot in 1H23E while Li >$70,000/T; and 3) M&A heating up - Prairie gone for >$70 MM. 👀

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Speaking personally, as a s/h, would hate to see $PIPE.TO turn buyer of $SDE.TO: dilutes exposure to highest quality Montney, increases ARO / LMR, reduces growth $ FCF yield, not sure $PIPE.TO mgmt best-suited to run a bigger company, and reduces its own takeout appeal.

Kevin Graham

@Kevin_AGraham

2 years

$SDE up for sale. @Michael71718318 @BubleQe

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Trillion Energy $TCF.C & $TCF.WT [$0.38/sh, $140 MM MC(b), ~$30 MM cash]: pure-play Turkey SASB, unhedged Euro gas, funded to drill 7 | 17 wells: at US$9/mcf, yields peak ann. NOI of US$44 MM | US$91 MM by Mar23E | Jul24E. ~2.0x NOI at current TTF >US$60/mcf = $1.75/sh | $3.65/sh

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

4 months

@Michael71718318 @sohaibab9 As one smart guy said to me, “I think $TOU has it figured out personally as a GasCo; small base dividend you never cut, and specials along the way as gas prices spike.”

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

@RealPeterLinder @RealPeterLinder Why do you only comment on $WCP.TO? I understand and relate to your positive bias, but think it would strengthen your pitch if you throw in your valuable insights on other E&Ps too, just to diversify adds credibility. Avoids feeling like a paid marketing service.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

5 months

BMO sales: post the $FANG/Endeav deal ($26 BN, 5x EBITDA), it costs ~$5 BN/yr to hold 0.8mmboe/d of Perm prod (31% decline); that’s +65% to ~$3 BN/yr it costs $CNQ to hold 1.4mmboe/d (11% decline) - the Cdn energy value prop! 🇨🇦 @WTIBull - your 18% decline for CNQ is too high!

WTIRealist (Duvernay Lover)

@WTIBull

5 months

I feel like "Canada is low base decline" is such a misnomer -- it CAN be low decline -- but not everything is. Individual mining assets are indeed low decline, same with SADG and other unconventional bitumen recovery -- but the average Canadian decline rate is ~28% -- rivalling

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

Now that the $SOIL.V acquisition of Ridgeback has closed and stock is trading nicely up at ~$2.80/sh (vs pre-announcement at $2.55/sh and deal price at $2.11/sh), would #COM like to try and get the Mgmt team on to present at a future spaces? @sohaibab9 @WhiteTundraSG

Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

Key points from $SOIL.V interview: 1) hedged oil at “average of C$88/bbl”; 2) all debt paid off in “less than three years”; 3) equity valued at “one years free cash flow”; 4) “focus away from acquisitions and toward repaying debt”; and 5) acquisition improves liability ratios.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

Bluesky scenario: by mid-23E when ND is zero, $ROK.V & $ROK.WT could use ~50% FCF to non-dilutively fund accretive acq’s & grow 15% per yr & ~50% FCF to fund $0.025/sh quar. div (29% curr. yield); peer avg mults 3.5x EBITDA, 5.0x FCF (20% yield), 8% divvy yield = $1.25/sh (+265%)

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

9 months

Echelon on $SOIL.TO operations and guidance update: “Saturn has gotten approval from its lender to defer the September and December payments, preserving $50.7 MM in fund flow to be redirected towards development, boosting our outlook in Q124 without any additional equity.”

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

@WilliamLaceyYYC Appreciate your help man, consider me a disgruntled $PIPE.TO bag holder, just trying to figure out how to earn back my money!

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

@garquake @taxman7777 Huge deal to add high quality growth assets, divvy bump w/ visibility to another +75% dividend increases in 9-12 months, no equity, +20% accretive to all key metrics, assuming reasonably strong oil, stock up +15-20% tomorrow?

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

2 years

@Gugo907 @AssetTraveller @garquake @taxman7777 I believe that the #COM community tends to think primarily with a retail perspective. $WCP.TO is primarily institutionally held. If you step back from the perspective of only chasing dividend yield, this is a good deal to build a business that one day competes with the big boys.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

@cckanaan @Gugo907 Checked a few sources; $PIPE.TO 2023E guidance assumes C5 condy is FLAT to WTI. And notably, every +$5/bbl on oil & condy adds $25 MM cash flow, essentially offsetting -$1/mcf on gas which loses $30 MM cash flow.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

This is a big deal, a primary motivation and upside potential for $SOIL.TO to pursue the Ridgeback acquisition. The $SOIL.TO team sees a lot of upside in being able to replicate the $CPG.TO / Cache Island (private) no-frac Bakken success across the acquired Ridgeback assets.

Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Upside to many Cdn #Oil plays! $CPG Q4: strong performance from NO FRACK tightly spaced 8-leg wells Viewfield Bakken. Can be applied to other plays. See 👇SAF Group 10/30/22 Energy Tidbits, applicable & upside to many Cdn plays, advantage to US plays that need fracks. #OOTT

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

Key points from $SOIL.V interview: 1) hedged oil at “average of C$88/bbl”; 2) all debt paid off in “less than three years”; 3) equity valued at “one years free cash flow”; 4) “focus away from acquisitions and toward repaying debt”; and 5) acquisition improves liability ratios.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

10 months

Watchlist! Highwood $HAM.V ($5.35/sh): ~$80 MM basic mkt cap + ~$90 MM ND = $170 MM EV to spend ~$40 MM in 2024E to grow ~25% to avg >5,200 boe/d w/ ~$80 MM strip EBITDA (1.9x EBITDA) and ~$30 MM FCF (20% yield) to reduce debt +30% to ~$60 MM (0.8x EBITDA), trades <1.0x PDP NAV.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

5 months

@WTIBull 1) IP365 cap eff of ~$25k/boe/d for $50-60+ per boe netback is good; 2) are you an engineer, how are you determining EUR per well, and why are you group all Viking, Sask conventional, MLOH, and Cardium wells together? Respectfully, some of this “analysis” is 🤮🤮 🤮🤮🤮.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

@cckanaan @AssetTraveller @emmpeethree1 @Kevin_AGraham @BubleQe @WSB_redditor @EnergyInvest0r In my opinion, $KEL.TO lands at Pipestone fewer and lower quality (more fringe) than $PIPE.TO. Both operators are plagued by the same infra constraints. But, $KEL.TO & $PIPE.TO similarly good investments, but for diff reasons - two of my faves in midcap space.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

1 year

$SOIL.V YE22 reserves: PR allow us to combine stand-alone + Ridgeback to calculate proforma PDP blowdown NAVPS (w/ no value ascribed for und. land) of $8.12 (basic) / $6.82 (f.d.). Trades at $2.47, sub-0.4x. Crazy value! Challenge #COM for any other comp trading at even sub-1.0x!

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

5 months

According to Echelon Research, net positioning in Brent and WTI is at levels last seen in 2015 when crude was in a bear market and WTI prompt month closed the year at US$37/Bbl. In 2016, it closed the year at US$54/Bbl as financial players moved heavily back into the market.

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Ryan Mooney

@RyanRMooney

23 days

@WTIBull Was honestly one of the worst AGMs I’ve been to in my 15-20 years working with Calgary E&Ps. Very disheartening to see innocent retail mislead like that. Also, have never in my life been to a 5-hour AGM preso at the PClub? 95% of AGMs last 1 hour tops. 🚩 🚩

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