Tommy Deepwater @TommyDeepwater Twitter profile

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

6 months

$VAL $RIG $NE $TDW $DO $SDRL $ODL.OL Deepwater Update, March 23, 2024. "Confessions of a Former Ensco Long" (1) The hundreds of billions of dollars the oil industry invested toward deepwater oil in 2010-2014 was logical due to the vast untapped oil and gas reserves >100 miles

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

11 months

$RIG $VAL $ODL.OL $NOL.OL $TDW Five Offshore Topic Discussions (Long): VAL Rumor, UDW HE Semisub market, Offshore FIDs, OSV's and E&P Capital Budgeting: (1) On Friday Pareto published a rumor of “less disciplined” $VAL offering 7G Drillships DS-13 and DS-14 at dayrates in the

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

2 months

$RIG Deepwater Atlas with a new $580k dayrate and 20k (8G) work potential at $650k 👀

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

7 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $DO $SDRL $TDW $OIH Deepwater Update, Feb 24, 2024. "Evolving Deepwater Rig Market: 5 Topics from RIG VAL NE 4Q23 Conf Calls" (1) Dayrate Term Structure, (2) Increasing Contract Term, (3) Supply and Demand, (4) Location and (5) 8G Drillships. (1) Dayrate Term

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

6 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO $ODL.OL $TDW $OIH Deepwater Floating Rig Cheat Sheet. Oversimplified summary of deepwater rig fleets. Specifications generally matter more than age on deepwater floaters. (1) RIG vs VAL vs NE vs SDRL: RIG is deepwater focused with unique exposure to

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

11 months

$YPF $RIG $TDW $VAL $NE $DO $SDRL Deepwater Weekly Update, Nov 20, 2023. "Argentinian Oil: Vaca Muerta and Beyond" 🇦🇷 In an exciting development, Argentina’s YPF is on a path to privatization and expected growth in both Shale and Offshore. Vaca Muerta is a highly regarded shale

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

8 months

Have seen some negative commentary on $RIG. Sharing some opinions... Dayrates were ~$200k from 2016-2021 and they survived, but now $RIG is allegedly insolvent at $450k after surviving all of those years at half the dayrate? Should be FCF positive or breakeven in ’24 with $400mm

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

9 months

$RIG $VAL $TDW $NE $SDRL $DO Deepwater 2024 Outlook, Part 5 of 5. "Why Aren't Drillship Dayrates $600k Yet?!" Deepwater is “long-cycle” oil production. The industry experienced a painful downturn from 2015-2021 and while there are clear signs of a prolonged upcycle, five

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

6 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $DO $SDRL $TDW 7G Asgard at $534k/day includes add’l services (not clean), but a good fixture for 1 year in US GoM that’s likely ~$500k when adjusted to a clean dayrate. Filling up “white space” at about half a million dollars a day is good to see.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

11 months

$RIG $NE $VAL $DO $SDRL $BORR $ODL.OL Deepwater Weekly Update, Nov 4, 2023. "Temporary White Space in a Multiyear Upcycle" RIG, NE and Odfjell all reiterated their confidence of being in the early stages of a “healthy” and “multi-year” upcycle on their conference calls this

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $VAL $TDW $DO $DODRW Deepwater Weekly Update, July 10, 2023. In 2015-2017, I was bearish on Deepwater. I preferred US Onshore until late 2022. Today, I believe the cycle has shifted in Deepwater's favor. I explain my rationale.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

11 months

$RIG $VAL $ODL.OL $NE $DO $SDRL Deepwater Weekly Update, Nov 11, 2023. "VAL States Most, if not all, Modern Stacked Rigs Will Find Work" VAL's 3Q23 call did a good job addressing (1) Rig Demand, (2) Rig Supply and (3) Dayrate Term Structure. (4) Odfjell on Tier 1 Semisubs 👀

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

2 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $TDW $SDRL $ODL.OL "Macro Trumps Micro" Offshore contract drillers all had 2Q24 EBITDA beats. While next 12 month 7G drillship project commencements are flattish, dayrates are $485k-$515k with consensus on strength in 2H25 and beyond backed by visible demand. Not

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

2 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $TDW $OIH What Would Jerome Powell Say about the Drillship Market? Leading edge dayrates are trending higher and remain affordable for operators considering they are well below 7G newbuild levels (>$700k). (1) Valaris’ 7G DS-17 fixture was the first term

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$HES $RIG $VAL $TDW Guyana deepwater. Brazil already proven and continues to grow. Suriname is promising. There's not another Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford to be found in USA. The growth is in Deepwater and costs have come down a lot. $25-$35/bbl breakevens for Hess in Guyana.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

6 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $DO $SDRL $ODL.OL $OIH Deepwater Update, March 30, 2024. "Different Strokes for Different Folks" Offshore contract drillers all have very similar exposure to the long-cycle deepwater macro story. However, there can be modest differences amongst the drillers in

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $TDW $VAL $NE $DO $SDRL $OIH Deepwater Weekly Update, Sept 8, 2023. Barclays CEO Conference Summary, Part 1 of 3. "The Offshore Upcycle Will Last 5+ Years* " Brazil, Guyana, GoM plus various emerging deepwater basins. Shale growth capex has fundamentally changed.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

4 months

$RIG $VAL $TDW $NE $SDRL $DO $ODL.OL "Rigged for Patience" Reflecting on the past year in offshore drilling, I realize I got a few things wrong. Addressing the major items: (1) Pushed to the Right: The first half of 2024 has been slow for deepwater rig contracting. Considering

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG People forget these were $800mm/piece to build. At $500k dayrates these produce >$100mm free cash flow. Buying these at ~$415mm/rig w/ debt leverage, that’s nice levered FCF yield long term. RIG has + scale. No newbuilds coming. @MugsLuck thanks for graphic. Old Ocean Rig

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

10 months

$RIG $HYG $JNK $USHY $OIH $XLE Deepwater Weekly Update, Dec 2, 2023. "Why Transocean Debt is Not Pricing for Bankruptcy Risk" Unlike its peers, $RIG never filed for bankruptcy so a relatively large debt burden of ~$7B remains. Investors bullish on deepwater rigs are drawn to RIG

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

2 years

$RIG Drillship reactivation economics have IRR's >100%. Rare to find these opportunities in S&P 500. Less than 1 year cash payback. RIG has 8-9 stacked drillships. If they put just half of those to work in next 12-18 months its excellent returns. Also $VAL $NE $SDRL

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$PBR Dividend Policy - Any E&P that can (i) pay >10% yield and (ii) simultaneously grow production at scale through projects w/ breakevens in $40's is very impressive. Shale cannot do this. PBR can. Offshore drillers will earn their share of PBR's value accretive capex $RIG $VAL

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

7 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $DO $SDRL RIG Call Thoughts: EBITDA miss not surprising w/ some idle rigs, a S/T concern. Recent selling reflects investor fatigue w/ underwhelming contracting since fall. RIG says trend of longer tenor contracts -> longer negotiations "Stay Tuned" stated multiple

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

11 months

$RIG $TTE $VAL $OIH $TDW $ODL.OL Deepwater Weekly Update, Oct 26, 2026. Tough couple weeks but I've seen this industry 100x worse (2016) Drillships vs. Semisubs, Drillship Dayrate Thoughts $VAL rumor, A "Semi" Difference between $RIG and $VAL and $TTE positive Orange Basin news

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

8 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO $TDW $ODL.OL $SEI.V Deepwater Weekly Update, Jan 27, 2024. "The Offshore Projects That Push Dayrates to >$600k" Part 1 of 3 $SLB CEO stated the international offshore exploration cycle is “broad and here to stay, in my opinion, because the economics of

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

2 years

$RIG Dayrates in the $400's are 3/4 of a "full dayrate" per RIG's COO. Equity analyst Frerik Stene from Clarksons says RIG should be "greedy" with future dayrates on 3Q22 call. RIG CEO agrees. Dayrates in the $500k-$575k range are coming @willrayvalentin

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

5 months

$GALP.PL $TDW $RIG $VAL $NE $SEI.V $TTE Offshore Macro Trending Positively (1) Namibia Exploration Success: One of the top 3 things on my watch list for 2024 was Galp’s exploration results in Namibia. If floater dayrates get back to newbuild economics (>$700k/day) in coming

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

10 months

$PBR $RIG $VAL $TDW $EC $SDRL $NE $DO Deepwater Weekly Update, Nov 27, 2023. "Petrobras 2024-2028 Strategic Plan Review" Perspective: $PBR E&P Capex budget of $73B over the next 5 years is >2x the Enterprise Value of $RIG $VAL $NE $DO $SDRL $TDW $ODL.OL combined at 11.27.2023.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

5 months

$RIG $VAL $NE RIG 1Q24 call: - Uncharacteristically poor operating performance at 92.9% efficiency 1Q and rev low end of ‘24 guidance. Downtime and delays. RIG is normally good at these things. Weaker cash conversion due to contract prep costs. Nothing wrong w/ market but op

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

9 months

$RIG $VAL $TDW $NE eMail from my dad on RIG … I’m not a market technician but RIG kept testing $5.50’ish last spring. Doing it again it appears. Sentiment sucks but it’s held this level before. Long cycle.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

9 months

$URNM Paulo wrote an insightful, intellectually honest piece on his NEAR TERM views on a setup he even said he was still incredibly bullish on. Surprised at the backlash. There’s very good nuggets of info on this platform and he’s got a lot to give. Should be encouraged.

Paulo Macro

@PauloMacro

10 months

I suppose I shouldn’t be shocked that I even have to entertain this, but I laid out a contrarian view based on observations available in the public domain. Nobody knew in advance that I was going to write what I wrote, and I have not been nor am I short U equities. 1/2

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

11 months

$OIH $RIG $VAL $TDW $NE $BORR $DO $SDRL A few thoughts on (1) Outlooks from 3Q23 calls, (2) the Oilfield Services industry and (3) Long-Cycle Supply/Demand. (1) Outlooks from 3Q23 earnings affirmed belief in a multiyear upcycle although focus has been short-term softness.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

7 months

$GALP $RIG $TDW $VAL $TTE $SHEL $SEI.V $ODL.OL Deepwater Update, March 9, 2024. "Beyond Guyana: Namibia's Harsher Waters More Rich in Oil?" (1) $CVX $53B acquisition of $HES in October 2023, which includes Hess’ crucial 30% stake in Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block, is contested

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG CEO Thigpen great job at Barclays. Very confident. RIG was 2nd most requested meeting at conf. “We don’t care” what competitors do on contracts bc RIG’s large scale Deepwater Atlas will be “most coveted (deepwater) asset in the world” when available in 2H24. More to follow

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

3 months

Deepwater First Half of 2024 Review: A Non-Linear Recovery (1) The market has seen steady dayrate appreciation of ~7-10% higher YoY. We’ve seen a few clean >$500k dayrate announcements in recent months as well as price discipline amongst the largest drillers. Limited capacity in

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

5 months

$VAL $RIG $NE $DO $SDRL $TDW $ODL.OL $OIH Signs of Price Discipline: 5 Topics from 1Q24 (1) Last quarter’s topics on lengthening contract term and long-term growing floating rig demand were all confirmed. Inherently higher utilization rates come with lengthening contract tenors,

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

5 months

$NOL.OL $TTE $RIG $SHEL $VAL $ODL.OL $SDRL Deepwater M&A Prospect, "Good Assets, Bad Balance Sheet" (1) Northern Ocean (“NOL”) was created to purchase two stranded newbuild UDW HE Semisubs, Deepsea Mira and Deepsea Bollsta in 2018-2019. Both meet Norway's high standards and are

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

5 months

$GALP.PL $SEI.V $RIG $VAL $TDW $NE $TTE $XLE "Mopane: Offshore E&P Flexing its Muscles" (1) After headline discoveries in Namibia by $TTE (Venus) and $SHEL (Graff), Galp’s Mopane exploration wells have been one of the key industry watches of 2024 since it announced the

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

17 days

Postcard from Oslo 🇳🇴 High level thoughts on the HE Semisub, Drillship and Jackup rig markets after the Pareto conference in Oslo. Work through Pareto for conference specifics. (1) Norwegian Harsh Environment Semis are arguably the best performing major market in offshore.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

4 months

$RIG $VAL $TDW $NE $DO $SDRL $FTI "Offshore Flashing Green but not $NVDA Lime Green" (1) NVIDIA is an amazing company that can scale revolutionary technology with low capex. NVIDIA is also a $2.5T company valued at >30x Forward EBITDA. Offshore drilling contractors are very

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $TTE $OIH At TotalEnergies Investor Day on Wednesday, their CEO indirectly compared $RIG to OPEC regarding their 7G coldstacked drillships they obviously need. Pricing Power. Offshore drillers have it and it will last for years after the 2015-2021 downturn. Long Cycle.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$VAL $RIG $DO To those confused as how VAL could buy 2 new 7G Drillships for $337mm total, it’s an arbitrage opportunity they are lucky to have from purchase options These will each generate $100mm EBITDA/year a piece under contract for 3-5 years with another +25 yr life. A+

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $TDW $VAL $DO $NE $BORR $SDRL $FTI The first Q & A from the $SLB call this AM. SLB is the most relevant oilfield services company in the world. Listen to them. Bullish offshore.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $OIH Deepwater Weekly Update, Sept 8, 2023. Barclays CEO Conference Summary, Part 2 of 3. "The Quarterback of Offshore Drilling" $SDRL $DO $VAL $NE All did well at Barclays but Jeremy Thigpen of $RIG lit up the room with his confidence and charisma. Management matters.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

20 days

$RIG Atlas with $635k/day on 365 day term in US GoM beginning 2Q28 This is likely 20k work for BP’s Kaskida project. Could be follow on work for Tiber in future. I get oilfield service sentiment is poor but high spec rigs doing well. This Atlas fixture should be >$150mm EBITDA

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $HYG RIG priced $325mm of new notes secured by newly acquired Aquila at 8%, 5 yr. Tight end of talk. Deal upsized from $300mm as announced this AM Secured debt market open for rigs with contracts. $PBR using Aquila for 3 years. Cost of capital improving and more flexibility

Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $NOL.OL $OIH Background on RIG's newly purchased Deepwater Aquila 7G drillship The new 3-year contract with $PBR in Brazil likely produces enough FCF to pay off the entire purchase price + contract prep costs. Aquila has another 25+ years of useful economic life after that

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

7 months

$RIG $VAL $GALP.PL $TDW $ODL.OL $NE $DO Deepwater Update, March 16, 2024. "ZIP Codes in Namibia and Long-Term Rig Demand" After headline exploration success by $TTE (Venus) and $SHEL (Graff, Jonker) in Namibia, $GALP.PL $SEI.V Mopane-1 and Mopane-2 exploration results have been

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

9 months

$VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $DO Valaris strong 3-year deal w/ $PBR on DS-4, one of VAL’s lowest spec drillships (6G). “Effective rate in high $400k’s” per VAL’s release. Includes mob fee though DS-4 already in Brazil 🇧🇷 Strong contract for VAL at first glance. Good industry datapoint.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

5 months

$RIG $VAL $TDW $DO $NE $SDRL $ODL.OL Five Things: (1) Animal Spirits, (2) Dayrates, (3) SPS in Norway, (4) 6G Muscles and (5) Sintana. (1) After Galp’s world-class oil discovery (Mopane) in Namibia, they announced plans for an additional 4 exploration wells for Mopane. Days

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

10 months

$RIG $VAL $TDW $DO $SDRL $NE $BORR Barclays out w/ positive note this AM stating "market fundamentals firmly intact", $PBR tenders in 1H24 likely higher than current leading edge dayrates and no changes in customer drilling plans despite oil price decline. Barclays does good work

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

6 months

$RIG $HYG RIG's Unsecured offering Upsized to $1.8B from $1.5B. 5yr at 8.25% and 7yr at 8.5% ($900mm each). Unsecured market now open to RIG after relying on secured in 2023. New $1.8B said to pay down 2025 and 2027 maturities. Likely leaves ~$700mm of addt'l cash. Flexibility.

GT

@FoamOnTheRunway

6 months

Transocean is now borrowing on an unsecured basis at the same level they borrowed on a secured basis a short time ago. $RIG

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

9 months

$SEUSF $GALP.PL $RIG $VAL $TDW $NOL.OL Deepwater Update, Jan 13, 2024. "The Permian of Offshore? Namibia and South Africa" Following headline discoveries in Namibia from $TTE Venus-1X and $SHEL Graff-1X (and others), this week Galp Energia of Portugal announced its Mopane-1X

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

5 months

$XOM $CVX $SHEL $GALP.PL $TTE $BP $SEI.V World's Largest Oil Discovery in >10 Years is Up for Sale (1) As XOM and CVX battle in international courts over the right to buy $HES 30% interest in Stabroek Block (Guyana), a ~40% interest in 9,890 sq km offshore block in Namibia (PEL

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

4 months

$NE $DO $RIG $VAL $SDRL NE DO Merger Thoughts: DO Ent Value of $2.1B, Cost to Rebuild 5 Highest Spec Rigs ~$4.5B-$5B. NE also getting ~$100mm synergies, few other FCF positive older rigs. Good deal for NE. Industry consolidation increases likelihood of eventual $600k dayrates

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $OIH Deepwater Weekly Update, Oct 12, 2023. "The Saudi Arabia of Coldstacked Drillships" Where else will you find >70% IRR opportunities with scale? Coldstacked reactivations generate big tech-like free cash flows on long life assets. In July 2023, Valaris

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

3 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO 7G Asgard 1 year extension at ~$515k/day. This is now 4 separate >$500k dayrates announced this year between Atlas, Norge (HE Semi) and Asgard's prior contract RIG has filled potential "white space" on Asgard at >$500k after last contract ended April '24

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$VAL $RIG $OIH Valaris CEO at Barclays conference, “We have zero expectation of a new build cycle” When later to ask to clarify if we ever see a high spec floater new-build again, he said he believes we probably never see it happen. >$1B cost. Not sure I 100% agree but his words

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 month

$RIG Est in-place EBITDA bridge for next 12 months with positive momentum beyond. DYOD. Offshore services long-cycle w/ different earnings cycles than short-cycle shale Stocks not immune to macro though Suriname, W Africa, Brunei, Indonesia, Namibia projects coming $VAL $NE $TDW

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

7 months

$RIG $VAL $TDW $NE $DO $OIH Five Things: (1) $499k vs Namibia Success, (2) Strong Term Demand, (3) HE Semisub Hercules, (4) Var's Cap Markets Day and (5) US GoM (1) $NE announced a clean $499k dayrate this week for 7G Viking on a “minimum 140 day” contract for $69.9 million.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

10 months

$PBR $RIG $VAL $OIH $SLB Petrobras 2024-2028 Strategic Plan approved today has $102B Total Capex, up from $78B in 2023-2027 Strategic Plan. The $102B is above some estimates around $90B, though $11B is contingent. E&P capex of $73B compared to $64.7B in last year's '23-'27 Plan

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

7 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO Deepwater weekly update ahead of Conf Calls. Semisubs stronger than Drillships in 2024. A look into RIG's FSR: Skyros at $400k. Skyros is a lower spec 7G Drillship, missing a couple things that make it marketable globally (i.e. only 1 BOP). IMO, RIG has

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $VAL $NE $DO Dayrates. The trend is your friend. They were >$600k in past cycle and new build needs ~$700k to justify $1B cost per rig. Cash costs are around $180k/day so there’s a lot of operating leverage on cash flows to this concept. UDW floaters. Long cycle.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

4 months

$NE $DO $RIG $VAL $SDRL $ODL.OL Offshore M&A: Economic Efficiencies and Drama (1) Good deal for Noble announcing the proposed Diamond Offshore acquisition this week. Perhaps not a deep bid considering Diamond is not large enough for Transocean? Diamond only owns 5 high spec

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG Leverage is your friend in an upcycle. RIG survived a very challenging 7 years and now their high spec floaters should comfortably service the debt. $VAL $NE $SDRL discharged their debt through bankruptcy and have less beta/torque. $RIG management looking good

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

5 months

$GALP.PL $SEI.V Congrats to Namibia and Galp on this World Class oil discovery in PEL 83. (1) In-place hydrocarbon estimates of 10 billion boe or higher, (2) high porosities, pressures and permeabilities, (3) Mopane-2X hit three targets and (4) plans for more Mopane exploration

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

7 months

$NE $RIG $VAL $DO $SDRL $TDW Noble Viking 7G drillship announces $69.9mm contract in Philippines for “minimum of 140 days”, excluding MPD and mob fees. If 140 day duration, that is a $499k clean dayrate. Released via LinkedIn, not Noble Inv Relations so not 100% official yet

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

4 months

$RIG Norge 140-day extension at $507k clean. While starts in 1Q28, shows strength in Norway UDW HE Semi mkt. Spitsbergen $72mm contract for 3 well extension w/ Equinor. Norway market strong, v high utilization $ODL.OL If Spitsbergen 3 wells done in 140 days also >$500k dayrate

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

24 days

$RIG $HYG $JNK Is Transocean 'BB' or 'BK' at Year-End 2026? DYODD RIG stated its interest of obtaining a “BB” credit rating in 2026 on its 2Q24 call. Their most recent investor presentation notes strengthening the balance sheet as “first priority” via deleveraging mostly from

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

2 years

$RIG For y'all not from Texas, "pretty much all those rigs get fixtures on them" means harsh environment semi is sold out end of year. Plus, the "at dayrates that should raise a few eyebrows" comment. Love management team. They know they have the leverage.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

7 months

$VAL $RIG $DO $NE $SDRL $TDW $OIH Deepwater Update, March 2, 2024. "Half of Sidelined 7G Drillships Contracted by Mid-2024?" (1) Constructive comments from $DO 4Q23 call and (2) VAL's bargain purchase options (1) This week Diamond Offshore stated its expectation for half of the

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 month

Paleogene 20K Oil: High Tech, Low Supply #oott $CVX announced first oil at its Anchor deepwater project in US GoM utilizing high pressure 20k psi completion technology, two weeks after $BP sanctioned a similar project, Kaskida. While exciting, 20k completion technology is

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

7 months

$RIG $VAL $TDW $NE The $XOM $CVX fight over $HES Guyana deepwater signals attractiveness of offshore capex. Guyana is $25-$35 breakevens at SCALE. Suriname right down the block. Namibia arguably the most exciting. West Africa growing. Uruguay. Deepwater capex growing long-term.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

2 years

$VAL Great assets but is run by distressed debt investors through Ensco/Rowan bankruptcy. Respected firms but they run VAL like debt investors. $RIG never filed and is run by industry pros with better aligned goals with common equity shareholders @CorneliaLake @contrarian8888

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

6 months

$PBR $RIG $VAL $TDW $NE $SDRL $DOFG.OL Deepwater Update, "Brazil's New Frontier and LatAm Exploration" (1) In December 2023, Petrobras embarked on a multiyear, $3B offshore exploration program of the underexplored Equatorial Margin on the northern coast of Brazil. This week $PBR

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

10 months

$ODL.OL $RIG $EQNR $VAR.OL $SDRL $NOL.OL $TDW Deepwater 2024 Outlook, Part 1 of 5. "Barents Sea Comeback? Norway Outlook" 🇳🇴 $EQNR held its annual Autumn Conference in late November and communicated its expectation of drilling 30-34 exploratory wells in 2024, an amount of

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

2 months

$VAL DS-17 between $490k-$510k and the 180 day standby is valuable put option if no better work is found before start date. Avoids white space. Great stip. $RIG Atlas $580k-$650k shows 20k strength in US GoM w/ ~4 operators w/ 20k desires. RIG has 6 upgradeable 7G+ to 20k BOP.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $VAL $TDW $NE $DO $NOL.OL Deepwater Weekly Update, August 3, 2023. RIG, VAL and NE 2Q23 Conference Call Summaries Dayrates. "Higher for Longer" - Roddie Mackenzie, RIG CCO UDW Floater demand, Reactivations, and New Build no time soon

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

2 months

$RIG $VAL $NE 2Q24 EBITDA beats for all the offshore contract drillers. Given the long-cycle nature of industry, call commentary is most interesting to me although 2Q24 results show positively for industry. *EBITDA is obviously non-GAAP. DYODD.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $VAL $NE $DO $SDRL A summary of key topics discussed on 1Q23 earnings calls of deepwater contract drillers is below. Positive commentary from everyone on where the market is going. Important to acknowledge deepwater is "long-cycle" and takes time to ramp up.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $NOL.OL $OIH Background on RIG's newly purchased Deepwater Aquila 7G drillship The new 3-year contract with $PBR in Brazil likely produces enough FCF to pay off the entire purchase price + contract prep costs. Aquila has another 25+ years of useful economic life after that

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

4 months

$RIG $HYG $JNK $ODL.OL Transocean's Second Seadrill 1.0 Acquisition in 9 Months and Five Things on RIG In May 2018, A joint venture between Transocean (33%) and Hayfin (67%) acquired Norge (fka West Rigel), a stranded newbuild original ordered by Seadrill (1.0) prior to their

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

3 months

$RIG $ODL.OL $SDRL $NE $VAL $CVX $NOL.OL Harsh Environment Semisub Market Update Harsh Environment Semisubmersible rigs were primarily designed for the North Sea, while Drillships were designed to work most efficiently in more benign conditions of the Golden Triangle (Gulf of

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

6 months

$VAL $RIG $TDW $ODL.OL $GALP.PL $EQNR $NE Five Things: (1) VAL's Jackup Hiccup and Buybacks, (2) Wisting in Barents, (3) Mopane, (4) OSV M&A IPO and (5) Suriname Exploration (1) The Saudi jackup rig suspension announcements have created noise for drillers. VAL’s share price has

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

8 months

$SLB $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO $TDW $BORR Deepwater Weekly Update, Jan 20, 2024. "Davey Day Trader Upstages Bullish $SLB 4Q23 Call" #ddtg Dave Portnoy is hilarious and a generational talent in content creation. However, since I began covering oilfield services, the $SLB call to

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

9 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO $TDW Deepwater Weekly Update, Jan 17, 2024. "Drillships with E&P Upside? Cold Reactivation Case" Offshore drilling is similar to high-end equipment rentals $URI although buying the assets at a large discount to replacement value. The driller generally

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

4 months

$RIG $VAL $EQNR $YPF $BORR Five Things: (1) Argentina Exploration, (2) Barents Exploration, (3) $COP $MRO Shale Maturing? (4) "Thrill of the Drill" - FT, (5) $BORR Signaling (1) VAL's DS-17 is drilling the Argerich-1 deepwater well in Argentina in CAN 100 block. This is a higher

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $VAL $TDW $NE $OIH Offshore Bull Thesis: Overlay this slide from $NE with the clear trend of E&P/IOC growth capex moving to Offshore for high returning projects for years to come. Reserves need to be replaced and shale can no longer grow as it did from 2010-2022. Long cycle

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $TDW $VAL $SDRL $NE $DO Deepwater Update, Sept 22, 2023. H/t @MugsLuck "Supply and Demand...and Stranded" Rig supply & demand for the next 12-15 months. When stranded/stacked supply is exhausted there's nothing else left. Dayrates ⬆️. No Newbuild orders for many years

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

9 months

$RIG $VAL $ODL.OL $SDRL $DO $NE $TDW Dayrate Updates: (1) Higher spec rigs added >1 year term $450k-$490k dayrates this Qtr. UDW HE Semis and 7G Drillships performing best. (2) $SDRL $1.1B contract w/ $PBR *estimated* rates of $450k-$465k for Auriga (7G) and $395k-$410k for

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$SLB is most relevant oilfield services company in the world. They are telling you the growth is long cycle international and offshore. N America shale is tapping out. $RIG $VAL $NE to see multi-year up cycle for deepwater floaters

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $VAL $TDW $DO $NE “Multi-year cycle unfolding in Deepwater basins” from $BKR earnings this AM Baker Hughes says it. SLB will say the same on Friday. BKR says LatAm strong. Also W Africa and Eastern Mediterranean. North Sea lags. This is why $RIG is moving rigs from Norway

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

10 months

$XOM $CVX $HES $NE $RIG $VAL $TDW $XLE Deepwater Weekly Update, Dec 8, 2023. "Venezuelan Elections, Essequibo and Offshore Oil" USA recently eased Venezuelan oil sanctions in exchange for free and fair elections to be held in the second half of 2024. In late October, Maria

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $DO $VAL $NE Deepwater Weekly Update, July 5, 2023: What is the estimated value of a 7G Drillship? Why I believe it is $545MM to $636MM per 7G drillship at $500k dayrates.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

8 months

$RIG $VAL $HYG Bloomberg credit work published today. Also positive, >$3B of RIG’s debt currently trades ABOVE par in HY markets. RIG is financially healthy and the most highly weighted outlook trends are positive (Bloomberg)

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

1 year

$RIG $PBR $TDW $VAL $NE $DO $EC $OIH Deepwater Weekly Update, Oct 5, 2023. "Seas the Day: Offshore Exploration and Energy Security" Positive news on Equatorial Margin (Brazil) and a look at long-term offshore demand drivers beyond Namibia. After a rejection in May 2023, last

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

8 months

$RIG $BORR $VAL Posted on Saturday the Deepwater growth projects in W Africa. Nigeria and Angola lost 1.4mm bpd since 2015 due to underinvestment, that is now changing. Re: Saudi, I suspect they are delaying their shallow water projects as West Africa deepwater projects start

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

2 months

2Q24 Offshore Call Summary: E&P, FPSO and OFS Shale E&P’s such as $FANG demonstrated onshore services cost efficiencies in 1H24, although $CVX states offshore service markets are stronger. Chevron CEO, “You can see different dynamics in the onshore and the offshore...We are

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

8 months

$RIG $VAL $OIH $NE $SDRL $DO $TDW $ODL.OL Deepwater Weekly Update, Feb 10, 2024. "If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them" $TTE entered into a JV to acquire a 75% interest in the Tungsten Explorer drillship this week, a eventful departure from the last cycle’s strategy where IOC’s

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

2 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL Quick Call Thoughts In Deepwater, NE and VAL are 7G w/ Golden Triangle focus. Expect 2H25/2026 commencements – market hoping for 1H25 though strong confidence on work. RIG $ODL.OL Semis in Norway tighter market. RIG has very good 20k prospects in US GoM.

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Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

5 months

$RIG $FTI Javier Blas of Bloomberg wrote a great article on Paleogene oil reserves in US GoM. Need 20k psi technology (8G). Talked 8G Drillships in December. $BP now openly promoting Kaskida which needs RIG's 8G Atlas. No other 20k rig available so v high dayrates w/in reason.

Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

10 months

$SHEL $RIG $VAL $TDW $NE $DO $CVX Deepwater 2024 Outlook, Part 4 of 5. "Shell's Sparta FID in Gulf of Mexico and 8G Drillships" 🇺🇸 Last night Shell announced the Sparta FID, a material announcement considering Sparta will be Shell’s first development in GoM to produce from

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