Aaron Chan @RecurveCapital Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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@Tribun721

Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

Cogent Communications ($CCOI) is in the midst of one of the most unique, transformational scenarios I’ve ever seen in my >20 years as an investor. It acquired Sprint’s wireline business for $1 and will receive $700m of payments from T-Mobile over 4.5 years post-close, de-risking

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

Over the past month, we had the privilege of visiting and touring two $CVNA facilities: one IRC and one ADESA auction site. We came away with a few conclusions: 1. Carvana has impressive facilities, processes, and associates that run standardized, robust inspection and

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

We love to find companies that build significant advantages from vertical integration. Read our latest post on $CVNA for a case study in the power of vertical integration.

Carvana - A Vertically Integrated Powerhouse — Recurve Capital LLC

In this post, we will use Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) as the subject of a study on how vertical integration can create sustainable competitive advantages.

recurvecap.com

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

Restoration Hardware ($RH) repurchased 17% of its shares in June/July and is calling for a growth inflection in the coming quarters, regardless of macro. In our latest post, we discuss the drivers of that inflection, especially its major product relaunch and gallery refresh which

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

$RH aggressively bought its stock in June and July. This is the most aggressive they have been since 2017. Read our latest post for our thoughts on their accretive capital allocation:

Insights on Restoration Hardware’s Massive Stock Buyback — Recurve Capital LLC

Let's dive into the buzz around RH (NYSE: RH), a portfolio company better known as Restoration Hardware, a leading high-end furniture store that has recently made headlines by repurchasing nearly 3.7...

recurvecap.com

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

11 months

$AWI is one of the best pricing power stories we’ve found. Its products comprise 3-5% of a construction project’s cost, but generate luxury-like margins. Read our latest post on Armstrong to learn more about why its go-to-market strategy supports pricing power and high returns.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

2 years

Dave Schaeffer is a serial entrepreneur who now runs Cogent. CCOI is is globally important and carries 24% of internet traffic. Dave has started 7 companies and created significant value over his career. His story is fascinating and insightful. A🧵1/11

Recurve Capital - Interview Dave Schaeffer (Cogent Communications)

Aaron Chan, Managing Partner of Recurve Capital, interviews Cogent's Founder, Chairman & CEO Dave Schaeffer. It is a wide-ranging discussion covering Dave's...

www.youtube.com

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

9 months

Has $CVNA entered step 3 and returned to growth mode, or is this seasonal? 491 out of 710 job openings were added in the last month according to LinkedIn, most of which are operational roles that increase throughput.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

$CVNA is starting to show the power of its vertically integrated model. Nice to see the unit economics shining through. It has the infrastructure to be faster/better/cheaper than other dealers and to add ~1m more units with minimal capex.

Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

We love to find companies that build significant advantages from vertical integration. Read our latest post on $CVNA for a case study in the power of vertical integration.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@INArteCarloDoss Price discovery is hard with such tight supply and low transaction volume, so prices can rise even when affordability is so much worse. What would mortgage rates need to be to release more supply in the market from owners sitting on great rates today?

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

9 months

@GavinSBaker Every check I do suggests a telecom boom happening right now to support more cloud and AI. Huge bottlenecks forming - space, power and connectivity.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

7 months

On its most recent earnings call, $CCOI revealed that it has about $2 billion of asset value in its IPv4 address portfolio that had been valued at $0 on its balance sheet until Q4 2023. We’ve tried to learn more about these assets, this market, and Cogent Communication's

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

7 months

$CVNA's prime securitization spreads have been tightening nicely since the company's unit economics started improving. Pretty powerful effects on margins and cost of capital when the credit upgrade cycle is underway. Visible at $RCL and $NCLH as well.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

9 months

@Devon_Eriksen_ I read that Orson Scott Card hired some super fans of Ender's Game to help him avoid inconsistencies while he wrote Ender's Shadow many years later. Maybe George should do something similar?

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

7 months

@buccocapital $CVNA

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

10 months

Spent some time refreshing some points on cost synergies at $CCOI from the Sprint acquisition. It’s incredible just how poorly Sprint Wireline was run. I understand why some analysts were skeptical and why Cogent sold off when the deal was announced. First, look at the headline

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

11 months

@BillBrewsterTBB It’s a function of network density, spectrum in use, and the spectral efficiency (bits/hz) of that spectrum. Mid-band spectrum can serve mobility users and FWA because massive MIMO radios and beamforming allow for much more spectrum re-use which multiplies the spectral

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

9 months

@RadnorCapital Great post, very interesting. I took a quick look at the company late last year. No questioning the strength of the trend at all, but on my first pass I wasn't sure I could get comfortable with the durability of market share or margins longer term. Current energy

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@sinstockpapi @annarmitchell My local coffee shop yells out “cow’s milk cappuccino!” Pretty funny every time.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

@chumbawamba22 @KerrisdaleCap @IndraStocks @LongHillRoadCap @Swany407 Seems to boil down to a valuation short thesis. In my time as a mediocre short seller (which thankfully I have since left behind), that was never a good starting place. But maybe they are far better at valuation shorts than I was! They seem not to appreciate that $CVNA has and

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@catapultcap 11.5x for a mature consumer cable/telco is quite high. Thesis reminds me of $LBTYA years ago when it launched Project Lightning. Be careful about the duopoly assumption - lots of brands competing for home bb and speed isn’t the top factor for most homes.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@therealjunto It was a great interview. Super clear thinker and, more than anything, seems like an amazing and kind human. Really enjoyed it!

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

How can you call a segment "Grow" when it declines q/q? I guess +1% y/y counts? $LUMN

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

9 months

@CapitalValor Cucinelli just reported Q4 and Americas 2-year stack was consistent at 56% in Q3 and Q4, i.e. no decel. On a 1-year basis, accelerated slightly. Europe decelerated meaningfully, however.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

Interesting progression of prime ABS spreads for $CVNA. Good to see them tightening up a bit recently.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

“It’s like bitcoin with a purpose.” $CCOI sits on a portfolio of IPv4 assets that has marketable value of around $2 billion but is marked at ~$460 million (and was marked at zero until Q4 2023). Important things we’ve learned about IPv4 in the last week: 1. Cogent exited the

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

7 months

Pretty interesting recovery in >$1m home sales in recent months. Flipped positive in October and nice acceleration since. Maybe some tailwinds coming for $WSM, $ARHS, $RH, $W, etc.?

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

$AMZN opens up its FCs for tours around the US, UK, Germany, and Italy. Today, I went on a tour in one of their FCs in Southern California. I highly recommend taking a tour for those interested (). We took a ~75 minute tour of the 1.2m square foot

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

Ernie spoke to the power of $CVNA's vertical integration. Normalized GPUs are around $6,000 and should stay at healthy levels even as they turn to growth. The low-cost producer has lots of ways to win the price-sensitive buyer, but they also win on selection and experience.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

In June $LUMN expected to add 500k, then 750k, then 1m new fiber homes. Now cutting back to 500k/year. They see FTTH paybacks in HSD/LDD years. Faster returns, higher margins in the enterprise space. How does that compare to people's thinking on $FYBR, $CHTR, etc.?

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

AWS and other public cloud operators have seen slowing growth from customer optimizations. Read our latest post on why we think this is good for long-term returns. $AMZN

Why Amazon’s AWS Revenue Slowdown is Good for Long-Term Returns: Understanding the Impact on AMZN,...

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) recently reported AWS revenue growth of 12%, a far cry from its growth rates 2-3 years ago and its historic growth rates. In this post, we will walk through why we believe the...

recurvecap.com

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@willis_cap Nobody kept their Covid surge growth rates. Luxury has done pretty a pretty good job at capturing the surge and slowly letting the air out.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

9 months

Yesterday, $AMZN started charging $0.005 per hour to lease IP addresses from AWS. That's $43.80 per address per year and they have 132 million of them, representing over $5.5 billion of pure-margin revenue opportunity. Meanwhile, $CCOI leases theirs for $3.60 per year...

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

$AMZN is a modern utility-like company that has competitive constraints on its ROIC (while still healthy on a normalized basis), but immense capacity to invest capital into (and to monetize) secular growth markets.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

7 months

@Rainmaker1973 I named my firm after this!

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

$CCOI's results are undoubtedly messy during this phase of the Sprint integration, but I think there is more progress on cost synergies than it would appear from consolidated financials. For instance, Cogent increased its metro fiber leases materially q/q to connect the Sprint

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

Based on new disclosure today (that was only spotty before), we can see that $CVNA has significantly increased its mix of customer-purchased units. These two-sided retail units are a nice tailwind to the business.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

Also worth revisiting this interview with $CCOI's founder and CEO, Dave Schaeffer.

Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

2 years

Dave Schaeffer is a serial entrepreneur who now runs Cogent. CCOI is is globally important and carries 24% of internet traffic. Dave has started 7 companies and created significant value over his career. His story is fascinating and insightful. A🧵1/11

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@TidefallCapital Levered buyback strategy gets dicey when revenue and EBITDA growth flip negative.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@SamerHakoura Highly recommend watching this interview with Dave

Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

2 years

Dave Schaeffer is a serial entrepreneur who now runs Cogent. CCOI is is globally important and carries 24% of internet traffic. Dave has started 7 companies and created significant value over his career. His story is fascinating and insightful. A🧵1/11

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

I am often asked how we pick stocks at Recurve Capital. Please check out our latest post on the fun but challenging stock-picking process.

The Stock-Picking Process — Recurve Capital LLC

What unfolds in the future, relative to embedded expectations, will dictate future performance. The longer our investment horizon, the more likely it is that performance will roughly equate to growth...

recurvecap.com

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@spencerrascoff They once told me to avoid the closest Starbucks “at all costs” because there are people waiting in the parking lot to break into rental cars and steal everything. Crazy.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

$TSLA's repair workflow is lightyears ahead of any other brand. You can chat with an associate, get a detailed quote, approve the quote, pay in the app, and pick up your car without having to talk live. Their end-to-end control of the environment is so powerful.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@SleepwellCap It’s a signal for sure. I wrote about this recently:

Insights on Restoration Hardware’s Massive Stock Buyback — Recurve Capital LLC

Let's dive into the buzz around RH (NYSE: RH), a portfolio company better known as Restoration Hardware, a leading high-end furniture store that has recently made headlines by repurchasing nearly 3.7...

recurvecap.com

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

11 months

We think there are some high-quality, disruptive companies that don’t yet pass the filters for “classically” good companies with strong pricing power. These companies generate widening economic spreads over time, but reinvest some of that spread into better value to customers

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

$LBTYA was a hard lesson for me to learn many years ago. Repurchased 60% of shares but stock is down over 40%. With no organic growth, the levered equity capital allocation strategy model doesn't generate equity value. Noting a discount to broker targets is embarrassing.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

6 months

$BC.IM grew +17% y/y (+18% constant currency) in Q1 and +57% y/2y. $LVMH reported +2% organic growth in Q1 in Fashion & Leather Goods. Who is managing a luxury brand better than Cucinelli?

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

7 months

@pernasresearch The beauty of the market is that someone could make a compelling pitch, yet big groups of people (a) would disagree bc they prefer to be contrarian, (b) wouldn't bother doing the work/looking closer, and/or (c) might agree but trade it poorly. Lots of places to find an edge.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

9 months

Quick thread on executive comp at $CCOI. Dave Schaeffer takes no salary and gets no cash bonus. In 2022, his non-equity incentive comp was a % of target for revenue and adj EBITDA growth. His stock awards were 45% time-based RSUs and 55% performance-based RSUs.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@Speedwell_LLC Do you think $RH's hospitality business is dilutive to margins? It's higher frequency and great for driving traffic to galleries, but definitely not a loss leader. From June 2021:

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

9 months

Assets from Sprint include: (a) a fiber network worth >$1b, (b) $500-600m of IPv4 addresses, (c) 41 data center facilities worth >$1b, (d) other non-core assets and facilities. Cogent will realize most of the value by pursuing growth from these, not by selling assets.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@MasaSonCap @catapultcap Yes the multiple should be higher in the build phase, but @catapultcap argued that 11.5x is a fair mature multiple. Long-term, FCF/share is all that matters. Fixed/mobile convergence is killing returns across the space. I get 500 mbps on $TMUS' FWA for $30 in my bundle, was

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@blue_chip1 Yeah, wasn't a comment on LAD or anyone else - they just had an easy slide to pull. $CVNA's Centralized IRCs are only advantaged if they can receive and send cars to end customers without punitive shipping and logistics costs. At super-scale volume (>1m units), the assets and

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

11 months

RIP Charlie. The world lost an icon. What a legend and a boundless spring of wisdom.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

@orrdavid Hard agree, you have to see a lot of at-bats early on to develop intuition and a nose for what situations work for your process and psychology, and to refine both of those over time. But also important to deeply understand the scarcity of time and capital and to be selective.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

7 months

I've tried to estimate $CCOI's IPv4 gross portfolio value since pricing can be quite different by block size (larger blocks = higher prices). I estimate the company's gross portfolio value at about $2.2 billion. As a reminder, until Q4 2023, these were marked on the balance

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

10 months

@oilmantexas1 @FocusedCompound @ToddSullivan Dave Schaeffer at $CCOI is a modern day Henry Singleton. Incredible capital allocator his entire life and is an amazing thinker.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

So $LUMN is saying FTTH is a HSD-LDD IRRs. In contrast, $FYBR says mid- to high-teens IRRs. Who is right? What explains the difference?

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@LongHillRoadCap What's the right multiple for $CVNA? ~40x gross profit pre-Covid average, ~30x lifetime average. Both likely too high for the current environment, but currently trading <6x.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

11 months

@LaughingH20Cap I’ve spent a lot of time on this over the years. Feel free to DM if you want to discuss.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

Narrative changes can cause significant changes in valuation as investors reassess terminal values. We released a two-part series of Insights today to discuss this topic. In Part 1, we describe what drives narrative changes.

What Drives Narrative Changes, Part 1 — Recurve Capital LLC

This is the first Insight in a two-part series in which we will discuss the reasons why narrative changes happen, positively and negatively, in public equities

recurvecap.com

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

7 months

@GHadjia Be careful that you aren't too backward-looking. Leverage will shrink during growth mode, when revenue and EBITDA start expanding again. In this phase, expenses build before demand (esp w/ intl launches), demand builds before revenue, then margins follow.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

6 months

@jay_21_ @AyyouEm One possible use is an early buyout of one of Sprint’s worst wholesale leases at a discount.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@DeepSailCapital Brunello Cucinelli has some of the best quality, heritage and brand values that you’ll ever find, and a “shrine” in Solomeo that is a full manifestation of the brand. A real case study in luxury brand management.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

2 years

@GavinSBaker Market is favoring cash rich, profitable companies that don't have high beta to the discretionary cycle, without concern for LT questions. Was observable in QQQ vs. RSP or IWM in March. Huge divergence right after the bank failures.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

11 months

The concept of mental models has gained a lot of popularity, but there is incredible value in studying anti-models as well. Our latest post explores one such anti-model for our framework, discussing $CHTR and why it fails to pass our quality standards. Mid-band 5G deployments by

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@scroogecapital FWIW, in my tiny sample size of people I know that are willing to admit they are/were on Ozempic, most have stopped drinking coffee altogether and others cut back >50%. Alcohol is even more impacted. All have lost significant weight but are slightly miserable.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

10 months

@CDMCapital Very choppy growth after the years you mentioned. Is it possible to be a true luxury brand that has multiple years of negative rev growth? I think not - either too much style/fashion risk (expensive but not luxury) or more of a premium brand.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@InvestRoiss Logo fashion/luxury is a way to express your wealth, like driving a fancy car. Aspirational customers care more about ostentatious signs of wealth; many HNW people aren't draped in logos and aren't trying to draw attention to themselves.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@BrentBeshore Gratitude, purpose and kindness matter much more than ambition-driven achievements, possessions, or anything else you do to impress others.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@ideahive Great thread! Singleton was a legend. I think Dave Schaeffer at $CCOI is wired very similarly and has comparable brainpower. He's navigated the wasteland of telecom the best and has negotiated a negative net price (i.e. has been paid net cash) for Cogent's acquisitions.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

In Part 2, we discuss why the cruise sector is deserving of a narrative change and should not trade at such a large discount to the market given its long-term growth prospects, margin outlook, and accretive capital allocation in the coming years.

Narrative Changes, Part 2: Why the Cruise Sector Deserves a Narrative Change — Recurve Capital LLC

In part two of our “Narrative Change” mini-series, we discuss why the Cruise sector could benefit from a narrative change in the near future.

recurvecap.com

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

$HD characterizes the Covid and post-Covid periods like a giant hurricane in terms of demand trends. The pandemic will play out over a 5-year period like a giant national storm, but broader trends are still in place.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

11 months

@B_M_M_3 This is the P&L for $AMT in 01/02. Interest expense was about 50% of site rental revenue and there were huge net losses at the time, but you can see strong site rental growth y/y and about 85% incremental margins on rental revs. Also, telco bubble was bursting back then.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

$RCL raised Q1 and full year guidance 3 weeks after reporting earnings. Has to be one of the quickest guidance changes I’ve seen in a while. At 11x P/E and >20% EPS CAGR, it’s quite an undemanding valuation.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

@MasaSonCap @Terrell352 Agree with this 100%. $TMUS is letting 2.5 ghz shine in a way that Sprint alone couldn’t easily execute. TMUS would’ve had to lever up to get midband. Consumers are winning via price wars. Bad for equity investors, good for consumers. Seems like a dream regulatory outcome.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

Traditional media companies are on a tough path. We think one company stands out among them. Read our latest post on TelevisaUnivision (part of $TV) to learn more. A few highlights: 1. TVU has >60% market share in its core markets 2. It operates Vix, the leading

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@MasaSonCap @scottyballs5 @catapultcap Yeah, not typically a backdrop to find great equity returns unless there's mispriced distress, but that's a whole different bag. Home broadband for cable/FTTH was a healthy market for a long time from DSL wins and some penetration gains, but I don't think it's true anymore.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

10 months

@rochonpapi @snowmanllc Appreciate the kind words. Cogent isn’t a portfolio of local monopolies like towers, but it has stronger LT growth and is the disruptor in its markets with LT share gains. Lots of digging needed to build conviction, but worth it IMO.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

10 months

@wolfofharcourt I'm tinkering with this a little bit. Not sure if I'm capturing all the moving parts, but I'm estimating the Louis Vuitton brand is about €22b of rev and >50% OMs. It's been on an incredible run of organic growth. How do you think about how brand saturation at this stage?

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@Techlife32 @CleverIv @MasaSonCap Feels like someone like $CCI should strike a deal for a mmWave small cell FWA network to leverage the multi-tenant model. Current mobility-oriented small cell costs/economics probably don’t make sense for this application, but maybe they can bring mmWave close enough in some way?

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@DanielPriestley It comes down to leverage on time. Trading time for money is the “safe” route but it’s hard to move up or get off that track. Risk capital can fund financial leverage and/or employees that generate additional yield per hour of labor. But not everybody can or wants to risk their

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@realEstateTrent I’d take a cortado from any random cafe in Barcelona over anything in the US.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

@elonmusk How do you do uplink from a handset?

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

7 months

@lurker8679 By my estimates, the core net centric business was more like a 4-5% grower in 2023 and a HSD grower in 2022. Evidently the business started accelerating materially in mid-2022 when the company changed some sales incentives. There's no doubt that the legacy Cogent business as

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@BarrySchwartzBW $MTN has great assets but long-term skier/snowboarder growth is a concern. Mountain prices and equipment costs make the sport expensive to try and inaccessible to most. They’re in the mature monetization phase which pressures valuation upside unless LT volume growth improves.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

9 months

This comment from $CHTR is why concentrated competitive markets are difficult. Shifts in share are visible and they often lead to reactions that are good for consumers and bad for operators. Much better to find companies that can win for a while without the share donors knowing

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

2 years

@LeviathanCapit1 Take a look at $CCOI. Ted owned it too, coincidentally.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

9 months

Last year, $CCOI executed one of the most unique deals I’ve ever seen. It brought up to $4b of realizable asset value, but operated by Cogent, ultimately it can create over $10b of EV. Our latest post discusses the pockets of hidden value that Cogent received and how the company

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

11 months

@_apryor Fiction writing. Way out of my comfort zone but such a great, humbling, and rewarding experience.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

$CCL is the first public cruise company to order a new ship since the Covid era began. These are very high ROIC investments 80% funded with export credit agency debt at very low rates. Great to see the industry continue its long-term share gains in the vacation market.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

$AWI showed nice margin improvements in 2023 as inflation cooled and its strong pricing power shined through. This was especially impressive given the uninspiring demand environment. Our post from Nov discussed $AWI's long-term drivers of pricing power.

Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

11 months

$AWI is one of the best pricing power stories we’ve found. Its products comprise 3-5% of a construction project’s cost, but generate luxury-like margins. Read our latest post on Armstrong to learn more about why its go-to-market strategy supports pricing power and high returns.

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23

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@SleepwellCap Logo luxury is inherently more aspirational and therefore more subject to economic cycles. Also a question of fashion/style, which can change with the winds, vs. true luxury.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

@CleverIv @Techlife32 @MasaSonCap It feels inefficient to do full FTTH. They can probably reduce the cost/home by pushing fiber close to clusters of FWA homes and using mm wave for last mile. Spectral efficiency for massive MIMO arrays using mm wave is very high on lots of mhz - easily multi-gbps.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

7 months

Who else is going to Omaha for Berkshire?

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

6 months

@SouthernValue95 Sentiment feels so negative it is almost tempting, but ultimately not worth the brain damage to me. Hard to articulate why a mature industry with well-capitalized competitors and similar services should generate excess returns beyond a bounce-back moment.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

8 months

The cost synergies and the work to integrate and repurpose the Sprint network are developing, but there's little uncertainty in the end point. I think ~20% of the $220m synergies have been realized so far. Great to see them more than double wavelength backlog q/q is great.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

11 months

@MasaSonCap Too much overbuilding and brand competition. Returns down for everyone. Levered equity capital allocation gets a lot less attractive without growth!

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

1 year

Imagine telcos could kill unlimited plans and extract variable revenues from variable consumption (which only rises). That’s $AMZN.

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Aaron Chan

@RecurveCapital

9 months

@pauldutz @Invesquotes @Jurek_Tom Cucinelli also only has about 15% of rev in China, about €150m. Its business there could be many multiples larger. Asia ex Japan is closer to 50% of Hermes' business, but was 15% in 2002.

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