Paul Novosad @paulnovosad Twitter profile

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Paul Novosad

1 year

📣 New working paper on residential segregation in India. We’ve been working for 5 years on this. 8 facts about residential segregation in India, from new administrative data. The situation is not great 🧵 1/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

What kind of childhood makes a top scientist? Is it enough to have all the right traits (brilliance, grit, etc) or do you need the right family too? And why should we care? A 🧵 on our paper on the Nobel Laureates. A teaser: the income distribution of the laureates' fathers.1/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

I knew scientists were territorial but this is next level. Remember Katalin Karikó, the unsung hero of mRNA vaccines? Her advisor Robert Suhadolnik tried to have her deported when she accepted a competing offer in another lab.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 months

Corporate landlords are pretty good actually. The real terrors are the ones who own 2–3 houses.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

I hope the staff at @OpenAI are checking their server logs carefully.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

Why we should care: science is arguably the most important force for human progress, maybe by a lot. More discoveries, better lives for all of us. If there’s a kid who could make a foundational discovery, we want to make sure they don’t spend their lives in the mines. 2/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

6 months

Dartmouth's student government held an open "no confidence" vote on the president's handling of campus protests. It passed (no confidence) 13-2 (with 3 abstensions). Then they repeated with a secret ballot. It failed 8-9 (2 abstensions). 1/2

DSG fails vote of no confidence in College leadership

The vote, which took place during the closed session, occurred after a public vote earlier in the evening passed with a supermajority.

www.thedartmouth.com

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

4 months

What gets you into a top college is being above some moderate competence bar, and then, from like 8th grade or earlier, organizing your life around getting into a top college. Very few 8th graders have this level of motivation, so we mainly select on parent characteristics.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

Wow, quite the story. 👇🏻👇🏻 Founding Arxiv is apparently not good for your academic career. Good evidence that improving how science works is insufficiently incentivized.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

🤷🤷‍♀️New data: SHRUG 2 is out!! @devdatalab has been working on this for two years, a HUGE update to India’s coolest data platform: 1. Maps of *every* 2011 town and village, with ids 2. All data at every geography (villages, districts, ACs, etc)... 🧵1/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

Re-upping this story about how Katalin Karikó's advisor threatened to have her deported if she moved labs.

Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

I knew scientists were territorial but this is next level. Remember Katalin Karikó, the unsung hero of mRNA vaccines? Her advisor Robert Suhadolnik tried to have her deported when she accepted a competing offer in another lab.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

Behavioral econ is cool, but once we admitted people are irrational, it seems wrong to end up with 50x more work on "we must help people with tiny nudges," vs. "Oh shit, firms must be taking advantage of people like crazy with this stuff."

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

Here's the core idea: If talent is uniformly distributed and opportunity is equal, then Nobelists will come out of the woodwork, from random families & places. If every laureate is born rich, or in the West, or has a teacher mom, it means a lot of our geniuses are being missed.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

Is there a theoretical basis for being comfortable with charging men more for car insurance? It's statistical discrimination, it's clear why firms do this, and it seems fine with me. But do we have a theory for deciding which forms of statistical discrimination we are fine with?

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

I've lately reviewed many papers that *feel* p-hacked. Some clues: results implausibly large, operate at the wrong unit of observation, too perfect, etc A couple of specific author teams are doing this very systematically. I think this is a canary in the coal mine. 🧵 1/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

I've been telling people about this paper for a while, it's sooooo neat. Prayers for rain only "work" in places where the probability of rain is increasing in the length of the dry spell ---> so these places have more religious belief.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

They are not universally from elite families — take Daniel Tsui, the child of illiterate farmers from Henan China. He somehow made it to Augustana College in Illinois, the University of Chicago, and Bell Labs, where he made Nobel-worthy discoveries in quantum physics. 9/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

The father occupation that is the most common for a Nobel Laureate: business owner! Some large businesses, but also a lot of small ones. Doctors, professors, engineers are also common, and more disproportionate relative their population share. 11/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

6 months

When you hear how many people say or support something, you always have to understand the social dynamics in which these "votes" take place. Many institutional and social structures are suppressing people's true opinions. 2/2

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

More on Karikó, all from the excellent so far A Shot To Save The World by @gzuckerman

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

4 months

RCT reducing leisure screen time among adults and adolescents to *<3 hours per week*. Compliance was high — they exchanged smartphones for flip phones. Results: - 45 mins more physical activity per day - Better mood and well-being (adults) - Fewer behavioral issues (kids)

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

Or Har Gobind Khorana, the child of a village taxation clerk, the only literate family in a little village in Punjab. He made it to Liverpool, Cambridge, and finally Wisconsin, where he did foundational work on how DNA is translated into proteins. 10/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

Women face a lot of barriers in the sciences, especially in our sample cohorts (~1835–1975). Only 28/735 laureates are women. Female laureates come from more elite backgrounds — suggesting family advantages made up for some of the barriers faced by women in the sciences. 15/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

The average ed rank of a Nobel laureate father was 95 in 1901, and is 88 today. For the optimists: we’re creating opportunity for twice as many people as we used to! For the pessimists: it will be another 688 years before we get to the benchmark equal opportunity rank of 50!

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

For every laureate, we identified the predicted education and income rank of their fathers. (We found data on 715/739 laureates in the sciences). Looks like we can reject that uniform distribution idea — about half come from the top 5%. 8/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

What a trajectory

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

So how is our society doing at finding and supporting the potential scientists who can improve this precarious existence? Our idea was to look at the childhoods of the Nobel Laureates. Virtually all of them reached the pinnacle of discovery — where did they come from? 3/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

We researched the childhood background of every laureate in the sciences. We excluded Peace and Literature, since those committees sometimes intentionally select people who were born poor — doesn’t happen in the sciences. (We included econ, cue the not-a-real-Nobel truthers) 6/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

🚨Please stop calling this brain drain. When there are high overseas returns to education, *more people get educated*. Think about all the folk working their asses off for this exam, and then *staying in India*. High returns for migrants are good, they build human capital. 1/N

Stefan Schubert

@StefanFSchubert

1 year

Out of the 1,000 top scorers on the entrance exam for the Indian Institutes of Technology, 36% have migrated eight years later (primarily to the US). Out of the top 100, 62%. Out of the top 10, 90%.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

By every measure, Nobel laureates born in the United States come from less elite backgrounds than laureates born elsewhere. 17/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

📣📣 New data alert: we @devdatalab are releasing open village and town maps for all of India. Find them at the top link here: We wrote a post with some more details about the maps: @thesamasher @tobylunt 1/5

Open-Access Geospatial Data for India

Development Data Lab is releasing a new set of open boundaries for all of India.

devdatalab.medium.com

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

11 months

I'm just so sad that so many progressives have abandoned the ideal that we shouldn't treat people differently based on their skin color. I'm baffled people are willing to defend this. I don't think this is getting us to a better place.

Boston City Hall roiled by email party invitation for ‘electeds of color’ sent to all

A Wu administration official, on behalf of the mayor, mistakenly sent all Boston city councilors an email Tuesday inviting them to a holiday party that was meant exclusively for “electeds of color,…

www.bostonherald.com

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

Stephen Jay Gould’s concern is as important today as it was in 1980. Brilliant people, with the potential to make world-changing scientific discoveries, are living and dying in poverty, without ever getting the chance to nurture their talents. 26/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

4 years

We are letting our allies down. Exporting 100% of our AstraZeneca is a no-brainer at this point.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

A 🧵 on our work on US mortality change, just out in AEJ:App, with @thesamasher and @charlierafkin . We ask: how concentrated is the U.S. pre-Covid mortality crisis? Is everyone doing a little worse, or is a small subset doing catastrophically worse? The graph is a spoiler 1/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

Which world region has been the best at nurturing top scientists from ordinary families? We thought it might be Eastern Europe, with its Soviet mass education. But in fact it is the land of opportunity 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 16/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

Good wikipedia nugget about today's nobel winner Carolyn Bertozzi.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

Reasons you are probably overestimating the probability that Twitter dies: 1. Platforms die when their audience leaves. Twitter audience is bigger than ever. 2. Platforms survive longer than you think. MySpace, Tumblr, Flickr, even AOL are still alive. 1/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

4 years

What an utterly idiotic headline.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

Our study on excess mortality in India is out: Excess deaths close to 3 million. 1. Far higher than official totals. 2. Implies global COVID death count off by >2 million (and more given undercounting elsewhere) Short 🧵

COVID mortality in India: National survey data and health facility deaths

India’s cumulative COVID deaths by September 2021 were six to seven times higher than reported officially.

www.science.org

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

4 years

Pfizer is creating hundreds of billions of dollars of social value, and stockholders have earned about a 5% return since Jan 2020.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 months

RCT introduction of a pollution market in Surat, Gujarat. Pollution fell by 20–30%, and efficiently — gains came from the firms who could cut pollution most effectively. Mortality benefits are *25 times* costs. An incredible state/research collaboration. 1/2

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

In economic history, the best measure of a kid’s childhood is often the father’s occupation. It predicts SES, and is often the only thing you can find. Moms occupations are more sparse in the historical record, and many are housewives, which doesn’t tell you much about SES. 7/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

This is work with @thesamasher , @eni_iljazi (PhD student at Wharton) and Catriona Farquharson (predoc at Princeton). You can read the full paper here: 4/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

Only 3% of laureates grew up on farms — like this year’s Medicine winner, Victor Ambros (also from Hanover & Dartmouth, woot woot!). Other notable laureates from farming families: David Card, Frederick Banting, Alexander Fleming. 12/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

A couple of ideas: 1. People work harder when their outcomes aren’t guaranteed 2. We get better allocation of talent when there is a lot of economic churn Causation isn’t correlation, so put this one into “food for thought”. 21/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

But it's consistent with other theory and evidence that increasing access to opportunity makes a better society for everyone, not just the poor people getting more opportunities. 22/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

Since we have 125 years of prize data, we can ask whether we have gotten any better at creating access for brilliant people from less elite backgrounds. These graphs show the father income and education ranks over time. 13/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 months

@kaseyklimes 6:1 in favor, based on the replies so far if we can get to n=30, it will be data

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

I like these article highlights — Elsevier showing they can still add value to the publication process.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

More surprisingly, we get more laureates in places with more *downward mobility*. When there is lots of churn, and children from rich families are not guaranteed to be rich, we produce more top scientists. 19/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

What a graph! High-income parents teach their children independence, low-income parents teach obedience. Source: WVS via Acemoglu Theory: parents teach traits that are optimal for the expected work evironment of their kids— limiting upward mobility.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

6 months

U.S. working hours per year are lower than they have ever been. The thing that is demanding your constant, full attention and dysregulating your nervous system is your iPhone.

Briana Mills, LMFT ♿️🏳️‍🌈

@theBrianaMills

6 months

Capitalism demands our full attention, working constantly. It doesn’t give us room to actually be human, feel feelings, or take time to breathe. It makes it so our nervous system is always dysregulated. This isn’t sustainable, dude. We can’t keep living this way.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

In the global income distribution, the average Nobel laureate comes from a family at the 94th percentile — implying that 90% of global scientific talent is not achieving its potential. And this measure has barely improved at all in 125 years. 25/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

We dug deeper into those U.S. born laureates, by linking their birth places to the Opportunity Atlas. Not surprisingly, we get more laureates from non-elite families in places with more upward mobility. (We also get more laureates overall from these places) 18/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

We address genetics, bias in prize committees, contributions to society outside of the sciences, among others. I’ll post another thread on some of these in a bit. 28/27

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 months

What we need is the Cheesecake Factory, but for landlords

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

Fact 1: India is very segregated. Urban places are about as segregated as rural places, for Scheduled Castes. For Muslims, segregation is worse in cities. The graph shows the Dissimilarity Index for cities and subdistricts.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

One last thing. All our work so far is looking only at fathers’ occupations, NOT at birth countries. But the child of a tailor in India has far fewer life opportunities than the child of a tailor in the U.S., especially in earlier birth cohorts. 23/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 months

My preliminary takeaway from the 3-year cash transfer study: Poverty is a lot more than just not having enough cash. Many factors interact to keep people in a bad equilibrium. Once you're in that equilibrium, cash transfers alone don't change your steady state. 1/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

Fact 2: Scheduled Castes and Muslims are about as segregated as Black people in U.S. cities. Note this dissimilarity graph is slightly different from the prior, b/c we limit to cities >100k to match U.S. Census definitions. 5/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

9 months

I find it wild that people out there think that essays are more egalitarian than exam scores

Thomas Chatterton Williams

@thomaschattwill

9 months

Wow: “He started by editing college essays from his Yale dorm room for $50 an hour but now charges the parents of his company’s 190 clients $120,000 a year to help them create a narrative he believes will appeal to college-admissions officers.”

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

We are getting better at creating pathways for high potential people to succeed in the sciences. But we have a long to way to go. Read the paper for more details: N/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

I'm surprised I haven't seen this paper until now (by @mikekofoed ). Clean RCT of zoom- vs. in-person-school: 38 sections, same class (intro econ), same time slot, same instructor. Zoom students did 0.2 SD worse.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

TurboTax is an influential lobby in favor of keeping taxes difficult, to drive demand for their product. How much would it cost a philanthropist to fund an open-source alternative to drive TurboTax out of business and open to door to tax simplification?

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

Making your paper general interest by taking the country name out of the abstract

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

4 years

Michael Kremer could be the first economist to win two nobel prizes, the first for RCTs in development, the second for advance market commitments for vaccines.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

In the long run, I think we fix this by requiring transparent data and code replication sites before submission. But this feels a long way distant, in between I think a lot of fraud is going uncaught... N/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

Nice to see our paper on 30-year U.S. mortality change covered in Matt Yglesias' newsletter today with a very clear summary. The U.S. is not experiencing a widespread malaise, it's a concentrated catastrophe among the least educated.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

This is really neat: Community Notes work because they estimate users' political preferences and upweight notes that are liked by users of all stripes. I wonder if other parts of our democracy could be improved with mechanisms like this.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

Fact 3: Muslims are more likely to live in highly segregated neighborhoods. 26% of urban Muslims live in neighborhoods that are >80% Muslim. 17% of urban SCs live in neighborhoods that are >80% SC. Numbers in rural areas are similar. 6/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

This is interesting! Why do we produce more successful scientists when rich kids seem to do worse — especially when scientists mostly come from rich families? 20/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

Fact 5: Public services in cities are less likely to be found in neighborhoods with many SCs and Muslims. A 100% Muslim neighborhood is only half as likely to have a secondary school as a neighborhood with no Muslims. 10/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

Our current peer review system isn't robust to blatant cheating. The Ariely types uncovered based on different fonts in Excel sheets are probably outliers — the successful frauds are usually better at covering their tracks. 3/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 months

Somebody should community note this. It's not what he said. I'm all for Harris (duh), but if our side is using the same misinformation tactics as the right, we are not winning.

Kaivan Shroff

@KaivanShroff

3 months

“Obviously she’s not a white person…but I love Usha, she’s such a good mom.” Honestly this is such a weird way to respond to white supremacist attacks on your Indian American wife. Pathetic.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

7 months

People dunking on this too quickly, "correlation is not causation", "we don't vote count studies", etc. *Not every important question can be answered with a perfect RCT* For decades, the cigarette-cancer link was similarly correlational, based on case studies, etc. 🧵 1/N

Jonathan Haidt

@JonHaidt

7 months

A review in Nature, by @candice_odgers , asserts that I have mistaken correlation for causation and that “there is no evidence that using these platforms is rewiring children’s brains or driving an epidemic of mental illness.” Both of these assertions are untrue.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

5 months

A+ Intro Econ content right here.

Tyler Alterman

@TylerAlterman

5 months

If everyone would just appreciate this tweet

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

Proposal for a new residential building in New York spanning the East River

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

A key discovery of the RCT revolution in development was that most programs did not work as they were supposed to. But when I get asked to referee papers these days, it's always about a low-cost intervention with transformational effects. I don't know what to make of it. 1/n

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

What are the best movies about development economics?

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

4 months

It's mainly: did parents steer the kid's energy into activities that build a college CV. Some of these activities involve real human capital accumulation, like Russian math. Too many of them, like starting NGOs, writing research papers, stints overseas, are mainly signaling.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

On referee advice for our null bias paper, we formally tested for publication bias. Good news: We were right about publication bias: Random judge assignment studies that don't find bias are *30x less likely* to be published. Bad news: Our paper is never getting published.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

The elite college "meritocracy" in the U.S. rests on the idea that you can tell who the "meritorious" people are by age 17. It's ludicrous — the only thing you are only learning about is their parents.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

Is the reason "statistical discrimination is only bad if it's against groups that were discriminated against in the past"? This is the best I can come up with, but it feels circular and dissatisfyingly vague — like how much past discrimination for how much present?

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

Fact 4: Cities replicate the social environments of their hinterlands. Districts with segregated villages have segregated cities. 7/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

We incorporate income differences across countries, using historical GDP data to rank laureates’ families in a synthetic global distribution. The results are a lot less optimistic. 24/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

Uh-oh — virtually all major RCTs funded by an NIH institute (NHLBI) before 2000 were false positives. Once hypothesis preregistration is required in 2000, everything becomes a null. Via @pmarca / @RichardHanania .

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 months

I fear this poster is correct that many people choose their policy positions in order to not seem uncool.

Malcolm Harris

@BigMeanInternet

3 months

I have never seen a cool person be mad about public transit fare evasion.

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Paul Novosad

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1 year

We built a national neighborhood-level dataset covering all India, 2011–13. It’s super local. A neighborhood = ~700 people, 1.5m in the country. Data are from ~2012, this is about historical patterns, not the current govt. 3/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

It's disturbing, because these authors are not far off from getting away with it. A little more care for the details and these papers are going to publish in top journals and be indistinguishable from papers that are learning true things. 2/N

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

The best thing about writing in economics is that you can get the entire argument of the paper by reading the introduction. Abstract: TL;DR Intro: short version Rest of paper: long version Other social scientists: please adopt this approach.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

I'm so glad somebody finally wrote this paper! My referee reports on close election politician characteristics papers will be much shorter.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

Imagine if the US government froze bank accounts of people who made donations in support of the BLM protests last year. This shouldn’t happen in a free society.

True North

@TrueNorthCentre

3 years

Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland: "The names of both individuals and entities as well as crypto wallets have been shared by the RCMP with financial institutions and accounts have been frozen and more accounts will be frozen."

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

23 days

@devilscompiler Do you look at a graph like this and confidently say “oh it’s all genes” ? If you looked at the distribution in the 1910s and said “oh it’s all genes”, you would be wrong (bc the graph has changed a lot since then). So I don’t get how ppl are so confident we have now arrived.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

2 years

"Men who lose access to Medicaid eligibility are 14% more likely to be incarcerated in the subsequent two years relative to a matched comparison group. The effects are entirely driven by men with mental health histories." by @elisajacome

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

3 years

The Economist's daily chart is from our paper on mining and criminal politicians in India. More mining rents — worse politicians, worse behavior in office.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

4 years

If you work for a mission-driven org, one of the best things you can do is hire people right out of undergrad. Students are setting down life paths, Wall Street and Facebook are knocking on their doors, and great NGOs are like "contact us when you have 3–5 years of experience"

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

The best job market candidates signal both interest and competence by including a structural model in the cover letter.

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

1 year

This is joint work with @thesamasher @kritarthjha @aadukia @brandonjoeltan Summary: Media fact sheet: Paper: Let’s begin 2/N 👇

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