Shapoval @Nataliia_Shapo Twitter profile

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Olga Stefanishyna, Vice Prime Minister and the conductor for EU and NATO integration, as EU confirms UA candidacy.

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

I'm Nataliia Shapoval, director of KSE Institute in Ukraine. When the war began, we faced daunting choices: continue our work or leave Ukraine. Fight or flight. But also it wasn't even clear that our economics research was needed as Russians were bombing Kyiv and its suburbs. 1/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Btw, a good way to protect children in Ukraine is to donate to bomb shelters for schools

ZAKHYSTOK: Safe Education - KSE Charitable Foundation

foundation.kse.ua

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

FT made visual of companies leaving Russia based on ⁦ @KSE_Institute ⁩ database, which relies on Yale database by ⁦ @JeffSonnenfeld ⁩. German and French companies, US and UK had more companies in Ru and more of them had left! China, Turkey 🥲

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Sanctions hit Russia hard, but with enough time they'll find a way around. @sanctionsgroup Action Plan 2.0 can stretch RU war capacity to its breaking point this year. @McFaul @CraigKennedy77 @BLSchmitt @elinaribakova @ben_hilgenstock @vladvlas @anders_aslund @JeffSonnenfeld

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

1 year

The @AndriyYermak - @McFaul Group has unveiled a new action plan to strengthen Russian sanctions. If implemented, they will crush Russia's oil and energy sector, non-energy trade, military, technology, and financial sectors. Here are the key sanctions proposed. 1/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

IMF estimates RF economy will grow 0.3% this year. We think it should be closer to 6% contraction. How come it can grow with the loss of key energy export market and all other sanctions? Our analysis:

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Putin and his regime should be brought to justice and global security architecture should be created again. Every person whose human rights were violated is important. In Ukraine, Iran, Somalia, so on. Oleksandra & Center for Civil Liberties today are the voices of all victims.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Since August RU has been withdrawing from investors` control over their property in RU: requested to run exit deals through special "commission", required banks and "strategic companies" approve exit deals with Putin 1/

Western groups leaving Russia face obligatory donation to Moscow

Move raises pressure on companies that have not made a complete exit since Ukraine was invaded

www.ft.com

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

The KSE Institute's story is not so much about hope but determination and collaboration during trying times. We've faced bankruptcy, adapted to wartime challenges, and grown stronger and bigger than ever before. We will go on as long and as hard as needed. 14/14

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Crude price cap is too high and should be 30-35$/barrel. Than Oil products price cap=crude price cap+prewar premium (diff btw crude & product price). Diesel storage in EU and downward price trend for oil and product support this. Do you see arguments for less aggressive strategy?

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@Nataliia_Shapo

10 months

The price distribution on October exports of Ru oil says that all banks, insurance providers, vessels etc providing services for exports of Ru oil didn’t check the prices for crude before taking the oil on board. Or Russia faked all the attestations and bank payment instructions

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

International Group on Russian Sanctions calls for low price cap on oil products - with crude price cap - reduces Russia's energy export revenue to $100-120 bn in 2023. @McFaul C Kennedy @elinaribakova J Nell @ben_hilgenstock @BLSchmitt @edwardfishman @Mylovanov @vladvlas /1

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Proud of my husband @Mylovanov being on CNN. They interviewed him about his twit on people visiting McDonalds in Kyiv, which had attracted conflicting views. Is it OK for people in war to visit restaurants? Is it a sign that Ukrainians don’t take war seriously?

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

1 year

CNN interview me today about McDonals in Ukraine. How could be simultaneously a vibrant European city and a war theater? But there was a more interesting question: Why and how are Ukrainians are both afraid and not afraid of the Russia and its terror. Here is how 1/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

As we have been contributing to UA government work on Ru sanctions, @McFaul , the super celebrity in academia & diplomacy, invited @brik_t @Mylovanov and me to @sanctionsgroup (the group is a big help to 🇺🇦 in defence against RU! More on this later) So, we met Elina in zoom! 4/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

9 months

I wish for the families torn apart by the war to reunite soon, hoping they find peace and joy in these tough times. Happy anniversary, @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

9 months

Two years ago @Nataliia_Shapo and I got married This was less than two months before the war. We were innocent. So many people have died since. The war will be over one day. But for now we do everything we can to bring this forward. This is all I can think about on our

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

This is @elinaribakova , a sanction superstar in D.C. We met in Kyiv this summer. And now we work together at KSE. Elina is also with @PIIE , @Bruegel_org and is a member of the Amb McFaul @sanctionsgroup . And here is why Elina’s work is awesome. 1/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

My husband @Mylovanov had a packed day filled with meetings, teaching, public talks, thinking of Uman. But the heart of it all was the time spent with students at the ChatGPT Prompt Challenge. He cares deeply about students’ futures. In many ways, they inspire each other.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

60% children of UA witnessed the war: separation from family/friends 28%, moving to another region 25%, shelling & bombing 24%, prolonged stay in cold 17%. Moved abroad 11%, were under occupation 8%, witnessed death of relatives/loved 6%, lost home 5%, hunger/lack of water 5%.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Gas prices should go down based on market fundamentals. Jacob Nell and Boris Dodonov and my paper

Gas prices can go down as well as up, and logic says that they will

What’s the one thing that would make life a lot easier for households and businesses, for the world economy — particularly its European wing — and the new prim

www.thetimes.com

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Action Plan 2.0 of @sanctionsgroup

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

In 2022 trade & government expenditures kept RF GDP at -2--3%, making up for weak consumption & investment. We expect 2023 contraction of 5-6% IF sanctions are implemented as planned. Medium-term, Russia faces an extended period of stagnation. @KSE_Institute @ben_hilgenstock 1/12

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

We also started getting help from world class economists from the UK, the US, Sweden and Germany. Some of them even visited Ukraine (Ben :))) and Elina :))) and Jacob :))) and Toby - I will write stories about them too, later ) 12/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Major media outlets published our reports, giving us exposure and credibility. Vox, LeMonde, the Economist, the Washington Post, FT - cited us. It was a critical breakthrough. More donors approached us, believing in our mission and supporting our work. 11/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Initially we were a small team of just 7 analysts. We dropped everything and focused on critical projects: sanctions, monitoring UA economy, assessing war damages. The government (Yulia Svyrydenko) wrote these tasks on FB. And we simply picked them up 6/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

But I thought our experience prepared us for this moment. So I decided we should become keyboard warriors (c) and fight Russia with analytics. Yet, many of my colleagues were not available. They had their life-and-death questions too and many were overwhelmed. 4/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Some of our team members got government appointments during the war. We are very proud for them but we miss them dearly. Now they give us tasks to do as new bosses and we obediently comply. 13/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

If we continued, then what were our new tasks and priorities? The old ones seemed pointless. Who was our core team now? Many panicked or disappeared, while many others volunteered and joined the military 2/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

We were short on people and each analyst could work only a couple of hours a day bc of the war and family. So I reached out to other think tanks. Our team grew to 60 people in a matter of days. Soon my WhatsApp chats were full of great people eager to help. 7/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

After about month, we found a donor for 50K USD, that allowed us to continue the work. We cut salaries and stretched the grant to cover several months. Many people agreed to volunteer. 9/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

@ben_hilgenstock @TaniaBabina @elinaribakova @itskhoki @mironov_fm @vladvlas @CraigKennedy77 @McFaul . @sanctionsgroup called for lower price cap & stronger oil sanctions enforcement. Now we bring new evidence why it’s critical: 1)sanctions circumvention 2)Urals price<price cap

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

1 year

Breaking from @KSE_Institute : International sanctions have significantly impacted Russian oil exports in Q1 2023, but there's evidence suggesting sanctions violations. How have these measures affected Russia's economy and what can be done to ensure compliance? 1/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Where would we get funds? Should we relocate? What should we tell our clients? Do I have a right to ask analysts to work while their neighbourhoods are bombed? I had so many essentially life-or-death questions. 3/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

We lacked experience in sanctions and damage calculations, so we risked failure. But we learned, perfected our reporting, and reached out to the media with our results. 10/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

We couldn't afford to lose time - the urgency of making decisions and relocating were crucial. So I focused on convincing colleagues to leave Kyiv for safety, helping them find transportation and accommodations in Western Ukraine. 5/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

But we almost went bankrupt as we paid salaries upfront and had no funding for these projects. We were not sure we would survive, but we didn’t think of it much but just kept pushing. I guess it was our way to cope with the shock of the war. 8/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

A lot of respect to @jubouissou from Le Monde. Julien came to Kyiv and made an in-depth study for his readers of war economy and life in war-torn Ukraine.

The Kyiv School of Economics is a scout on the war's economic front

As a start-up incubator and government advisor, the establishment is much more than a school. It also manages human resources for the territorial defense.

www.lemonde.fr

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

The General Assembly could vote to strip Russia of its credentials to sit on the Council. It would be a more modest step than what the Assembly took in 1971 with Taiwan.6/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

1/5 Some really great news to share today: we gathered top economists from all around to work with the Ministry of Economy, headed by @Svyrydenko_Y , Olexii Sobolev to help Ukraine all figure out the best way forward for our economic recovery.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Unexpectedly, in June, Elina came to Kyiv. Most international agencies and foreign politicians were still avoiding visits. Her visit was the second event we run at KSE since the war had begun. This was also our first meeting with the UA sanctions community. 5/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Foreign companies in RU should decide now to leave and to protest - or they are becoming complicit with Kremlin's expropriation of their assets. 4/ @LeaveRussiaOrg

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Than with Jacob Nell (super economist from UK,big friend of Ukraine &KSE and also Alina Slyusarchuk introduction) and Elina, Andriy Pushnyy (currently a star Central Bank governor), @vladvlas , and the whole Yermak-McFaul group we wrote a very detailed roadmap on fin sanctions!6/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Than we started working with brilliant Jacob Nell as our senior research fellow and mentor, and Elina’s colleague, brilliant @ben_hilgenstock as senior economist at KSE. Until finally @Mylovanov and I went to D.C. and persuaded Elina to work with us.🌟

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Join @sanctionsgroup ⁩ ⁦ @McFaul ⁩ & ⁦ @KSE_Institute ⁩ Conference on Sanctions. December 21, 5 pm Kyiv/10am DC. Registration @edwardfishman , @CraigKennedy77 , @elinaribakova , @BLSchmitt , ⁦ @ben_hilgenstock ⁩ ⁦⁦⁦⁦ @Mylovanov ⁩

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

March 2022,a city in Western Ukraine. KSE alumnus from Morgan Stanley, Alina Slyusarchuk, is helping me online to study RU economy. She subscribes me to the newsletter of @elinaribakova and @ben_hilgenstock on Macro Notes. My professional life changed, when I saw this graph. 2/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

This week in NY as civil society from UA we meet international policy makers & UN country representatives. Yesterday honoured to meet Lichtenstein, Dutch &Denmark foreign ministers;US, Ireland Ambassadors to UN

Liechtenstein UN

@LiechtensteinUN

2 years

FM @DominiqueHasler has a fruitful exchange with representatives of #Ukraine civil society on #sanctions implementation, compensation commission and a special tribunal for the #crimeofaggression .

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

LSE Policy Brief "Meeting the immediate needs of the Ukrainian economy, the role of international actors and the importance of understanding the conflict as a conventional war" with @brik_t and myself among co-authors

Meeting the immediate needs of the Ukrainian economy, the role of international actors and the...

Academia.edu is a platform for academics to share research papers.

www.academia.edu

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Since the introduction of the oil sanctions, we wonder if arbitrage on the oil market goes to Russian companies or not. We just noticed with @ben_hilgenstock that RU prevails in all oil export-import deals. @sanctionsgroup @elinaribakova @Mylovanov @ 1/

Benjamin Hilgenstock

@ben_hilgenstock

1 year

#India is Russia's most important new client for crude oil now. But who is 🇷🇺 actually selling the oil to? themselves or (potentially) affiliated companies. And who is 🇮🇳 buying it from? Mostly the same players. The result: large arbitrage capture opportunities.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

A very important call from Razom

Razom for Ukraine 🇺🇦

@razomforukraine

2 years

After @ZelenskyyUa 's historic visit and speech to a joint session Congress, we are calling on @LeaderHoyer to schedule a vote for H.Res.1205, which would recognize Russia's invasion of Ukraine as genocide. This is a historic moment, let's pass historic legislation.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

First Vice Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko says that Government will be creating market for demining operators. This is KSE conference with State Emergency Services and Ukroboronprom

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Firstly, it’s beautiful. Second, it shows a kind of very nuanced knowledge of the banking sector. If there were a policy research art gallery, this graph would be in the top room. So, we got a roadmap to study ways for cutting RU from international fin sector. 3/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Nothing can stop our team from writing more sanctions for russia 🔥⁦with ⁦⁦ @sanctionsgroup ⁩

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Like mlns of people whose countries are bombed with 0 actions from global "security framework", I`m cynical about UN Security Council. UN members should finally say NO to Russia. Starting from NO to Ru UN presidency coming April 1st. @JeffSonnenfeld @SergiyKyslytsya 1/

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld

@JeffSonnenfeld

1 year

Just out in TIME with Senator Richard Blumenthal and Ambassador Jon Huntsman -- Just say NO and Veto Putin From Taking Over U.N. Security Council in four days - with bipartisan support @YaleSOM

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Heavy reliance on the NWF depletes RF buffers. in 2022 RF used up 3.7 trln rubles (~$53 bn) to finance the deficit and support companies. NWF shrunk 25% to 10.4 trln (7.8% of GDP) in 2022 & will likely run out of liquid funds in 2023.8/12

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Siemens turbines case reminds of a pattern of behaviour of Germany which had led to Europe’ energy dependence.

Dr. Benjamin L. Schmitt🇺🇸🇺🇦🇪🇺🇹🇼

@BLSchmitt

2 years

🇺🇸🇩🇪🇺🇦 @DWNews @BrentGoffTV asked me about #Ottawa caving to German pressure to exempt from sanctions six Siemens turbines to transfer to #Russia for #NordStream1 despite Habeck confirming the claim was just a pretext for Putin’s energy weaponization against the EU. My response:

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

In Kyiv with no light, water, non-working toilets.Light on photo from generators. Cake made by our graduate w/o light. @KSE_Institute celebrates 6 years of procurement research&training center. Trained 5000+professionals and informed changes to ProZorro.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

This is why you should always listen to your mom. While we were eating row veggies with my husband unable to cook w/o electricity,my mom cooked herself eggs on three candles(!). In the oven and in the cooking form she used for Easter.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Evan Gershkovich, a foreign reporter traveling to Ru since Feb '22, sheds light on the Kremlin's war mismanagement through his courageous journalism. Russia's detention of Evan escalates. International action is needed to advocate for his release and hold Russia accountable.

Polina Ivanova

@polinaivanovva

1 year

Our best friend and completely professional journalist Evan Gershkovich has been detained in Russia for doing his job and must be released immediately. Journalism is not a crime. The allegations are ridiculous.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Part of the RU promises to restrict exit of companies was implemented yesterday, which was a clear sign that it will only get worse. RU also further restricted the possibility to receive dividends, which now requires to promise to stay in RU.3/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Happy Thanksgiving day to everyone celebrating it ❤️ Thank you all for fighting evil in all forms you can. Ps: and special thanks to Ukrainian energy superheroes who brought light to our home just now after almost 2 days “off-grid”, even if it’s not for long

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

In December Gou set 10% (of asset appraisal report ) "tax" on exit deals with the option to delay the deal for 2 years. Since October, RU "Correspondent" media have been leaking Gov plans to restrict exits more and to introduce temporary administrations for foreign business. 2/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

We have all chances to loose young people. To war, destruction & 4th year of online. @KSE aims to create opportunities for children to grow their talents. Over 2 months KSE run ChatGPT workshops & competitions engaging & enabling creativity for 300+ students from all over UA

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

1 year

Education in crisis. This weekend, we celebrated the inspiring resilience of Ukrainian students amid the war. KSE hosted a ChatGPT prompt design competition that helps foster creativity and new knowledge, while also discussing their views on the conflict. 1/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

The General Assembly might transfer Russia’s Security Council credentials to Ukraine. Both Ukraine and Belarus are "original members" of the UN. When the USSR fell, Russia inherited the international rights and assets of the Soviet Union, including the UNSC seat.7/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

@razomforukraine SST timely event with Paul Massaro, Cristopher Atwood, Oleksa Martiniouk, Yarema Dukh, Maryna Prykhodko on designating Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. . Also Razom page on spreading the word on SST

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Heroes of Azovstal are coming home ❤️

Olena Zelenska / Олена Зеленська

@ZelenskaUA

2 years

The day the whole Ukraine was waiting for. The day which brought back happiness to 215 families of our Heroes. The thoughts and joy of millions of Ukrainians are with them today. We are grateful. Grateful for the feat, for indomitability, for Ukraine!🇺🇦

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

⁦ @T_Tasheva ⁩ ⁦ @azarkhina ⁩ ⁦ @Mylovanov ⁩ & Max Fedoseenko from ⁦ @KSE_Institute ⁩ & I talk Crimea Recovery. Crimea is 🇺🇦❤️ PS: energy heroes of 🇺🇦 got us some electricity ⚡️ and I had coffee in morning (the part I didn’t spill on myself making 🐿️ photo)

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Historically gas was less important than oil for RF. We now calculate that European buyers have paid more for gas since the war started (~f $471 mn per day) than they have for oil (~$332 mn per day), although in April revenues from oil and gas have been more equal.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Join us at 10 am Brussels time for a talk on sanctions with ⁦ @Mylovanov ⁩ ⁦ @vladvlas ⁩ ⁦ @ben_hilgenstock ⁩ ⁦ @TorbjornBecker ⁩ ⁦ @KSE_Institute ⁩ ⁦ @sanctionsgroup ⁩

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@Nataliia_Shapo

7 months

Putin’s pursuit to kill Alexei Navalny commenced years ago. The motives of Putin’s regime have been evident, yet efforts to counter the systemic eradication of opposition in Russia have yielded little, perpetuating a grim reality for decades. Navalny’s pursuit of freedom and

Michael McFaul

@McFaul

7 months

Mr @SpeakerJohnson , Putin killed Navalny today. Navalny was my friend. He was a Christian, just like you & me. He believed in freedom, as I know you do. So please stop rewarding his killer. Give Ukrainians the weapons they need to reduce Putins slaughter of their people.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Full report on RF economy under sanctions from @KSE_Institute : 12/12

KSE Institute Russia Chartbook: Turning Point Approaching

kse.ua

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

The Economic Costs of Russia’s War Against Ukraine. Wednesday, February 22, 2023 | 1:30 pm EST Carnegie Endowment for International Peace @Mylovanov @andrewsweiss @CarnegieEndow

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

The same way companies started reporting their carbon footprint, we soon hope to see their war footprint reported publicly. Greatly appreciate the work of Proff Sonnenfeld and his team on encouraging international companies to exit Russia.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld

@JeffSonnenfeld

2 years

Super productive discussion with the brilliant team led by @Mylovanov @Nataliia_Shapo . We are grateful for close partnership between our teams @Yale and @kse_ua moving fwd to continue the crucial impact of our lists of companies doing business in Russia!

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

@Aly_shkrum @DmytroNatalukha &Vasylenko wrote how countries that value security&freedom can remove RU from UN Security Council. It's not impossible or unprecedented. In 1990, the Security Council took action against Iraq for invading Kuwait.2/

Russia Doesn’t Belong in the United Nations

It took a full-scale invasion for the world to begin talking about this swindle in international politics, but a year later, the problem still hasn’t been addressed

time.com

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

The sky and the drones in the morning from my window. Life and Ukrainian military will stop the evil.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Analysis from @KSE_Institute Anna Vlasiuk and me for banking sector.

DIVESTMENT FROM RUSSIA: PRACTICAL STEPS

Analysis by Anna Vlasiuk, KSE legal expert, with humble contributions from Nataliia Shapoval

medium.com

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2 years

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

2,300 souls in Turkey and northern Syria. Rest in peace. So much hope for the rescue teams to save more people🙏

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Yesterday in NY we met UK political coordinator in UN @ferguseckersley . We talk RF accountability & compensation. Met Mexico’s UNHCR Deputy, UN Women Chief of Peace, Albania Secretary General of Europe & foreign affairs Ministry. @TsybulskaLiubov @DrikOleksandra @MarleneSpoerri

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Very high price cap again

Rikard Jozwiak

@RikardJozwiak

2 years

Green light on the two price caps on 🇷🇺 petroleum products (100 USD for diesel, 45 USD for various oils). Also written commitment for a review of the 🇷🇺 crude oil cap (currently 60 usd) in March. #Ukraine

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Foreign business must act quickly to exit & avoid expropriation. Don't wait & play victims, support the war. Control is slipping, returns limited & assets at risk of nationalization. Inaction now means limited options later in courts 1/

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Today, the Security Council hasn't even censured Putin for the invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s veto blocks meaningful action. The UN's credibility is at stake if it can't respond to Russia's aggression against Ukraine 3/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

28 000 fishes are dead in one village affected by Kakhovka dam destruction by Russians. More sanctions, more weapons to Ukraine.

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Crude price cap is too high and should be 30-35$/barrel. Than Oil products price cap=crude price cap+prewar premium (diff btw crude & product price). Diesel storage in EU and downward price trend for oil and product support this. Do you see arguments for less aggressive strategy?

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

"Demining 2.0 – Transforming humanitarian demining through AI and robotics", 23 February 2023; 0900 ET / 1600 Kyiv. Please come and share recommendations of the companies working in this industry. Registration:

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Drivers of trucks leave for 4-5 days on the boarder in their cars on a Polish- Ukrainian border. Understandably, replacing the sea trade is close to impossible as 60% of exports went through the sea before the war. But e-lines at least.

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

2 years

Today we drove through Polish-Ukrainian border. The truck line is astonishing: 22 km / 32 mins by car. Trucks wait for 4-5 days. The economic losses are likely in billions. We asked who is responsible and got very diverse views. It has been a year since the beginning of the war..

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

In Davos. On the question of when negotiations w RF should start, the President says that it’s not actually clear with whom to talk and who are those people making decisions. So Russia should decide “who” and than say “what” on negotiation.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

We propose low price cap on Russian oil products, specifically more aggressive than crude, due to their major impact and Russia's weaker position with products./4

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Yermak-McFaul working group on Russian sanctions. Progress Update, June 8 compared to Apr 19. Very slow progress, and only with sanctions on individuals and legal entities. More on @sanctionsgroup on #StopRussia

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

G7 governments postpone decision on crude oil price cap until March, key decision now concerns product price cap level to be set on Feb 5. /3

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Ru economy chartbook Annual impact of sanctions of @sanctionsgroup @KSE_Institute

One Year of War: Sanctions Impact Assessment and Action Plan For 2023

kse.ua

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

1 year

Sanctions were supposed to deny Russia's ability to finance the war. But sanctions were delayed and it didn't happen. Now sanctions are finally starting to bite. At the end of 2022 liquid reserves were slightly above 1 month of import. More facts: 1/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

~6 months of sanctions it’s time to evaluate & make sanctions even “smarter”( @Makeiev ). With more pressure,RF crisis can materialise in 2023. W/o sanctions RF could have grown at double digits like Saudi Arabia at current prices. More statistics here:

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

3 years

Russians blown up gas pipeline and oil depot, targeted nuclear facilities in Ukraine. This war is against the whole planet. #StopPutinNOW

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

Journalists are heroes

Matthew Rose

@MtthwRose

1 year

Inside the @WSJ newsroom #IStandWithEvan

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Setting low price cap on less demanded products like naptha and fuel oil will have maximum impact with least consequences for partner and third countries./5

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Squeezing money out of has limits. Gazprom provided large amounts to the budget last year – 600 bn rubles in dividends and 1.2 trln via “special tax”. There is also evidence for broader attempts to extract money in additional taxes and fines (~500 billion rubles). 11/12

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Russians are terrorist and should be designated as State sponsor of terrorism asap

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

2 years

Russia attacks civilians in Zaporizhiya again. This morning missile attacks reported in Kyiv, Dnipro, Mykolayiv. I have heard the one in Kyiv. It sounded as a missile landed not far from where I live. We are ok; I hope everyone else is too.

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@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

In Jan 2023 oil & gas revenues were the lowest since mid-2020 (Covid!), 46%YoY and expenditures the highest ever in a month. Altogether, they have already reached 2/3 of the full-year deficit projected for 2023 (although we knew before that it was unrealistic). @JPavytska 7/12

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@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

New annual report assessing damage caused by Russia to Ukraine infrastructure. 144 bn USD

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

2 years

Due to Russian’s night attack, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant in Ukraine is now completely without power and disconnected from UA electricity grid. The station is now in blackout mode for the fifth time since the occupation, and the 5th and 6th energy blocks have been shifted to cold

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

7 months

Ukraine is withdrawing from Avdiivka. WP build a story of unstoppable Putin. But the story is different: US Congress delays allowed Russia to gain temporary air dominance which made it too costly for the lives of the soldiers to defend Avdiivka. This proves once again that air

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

7 months

Putin seems unstoppable writes WP. The Russian president’s forces are advancing in Ukraine, his main political adversary is dead, U.S. aid to Kyiv is stalled and fear has squelched protests in Moscow. NYTimes reinforces: "Ukraine is in a precarious position" What's next? 1/

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@Nataliia_Shapo

3 years

2000 civilians were murdered by Putin in Ukraine as of today (State Emergency Service data). How the world can tolerate this? He should be imprisoned asap.

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Shapoval

@Nataliia_Shapo

1 year

@sanctionsgroup in Ukraine with @vladvlas and @McFaul

Vladyslav Vlasiuk 💙💛🇪🇺

@vladvlas

1 year

Two men and many sanctions with @McFaul missing @Nataliia_Shapo 🍎

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