Stocks options crypto futures. Day + Swing. Full time trader since 2014. Blew up end of 2016 pulled low 8 figs since. PnL posts for a few followers then value
The much-anticipated interview with
@MoistMango12
is now live!🔥
✅ Analyzing his $1.6 Million NVDA trade
✅ 10,000% profit in 1 hour on crypto
✅ 3 ways that big trades happen
✅ Navigating drawdowns and blowups
And more!
Wild 24 hours. Pulled the full 24 hours across Nikkei and US session. Did not expect when the trading day started in Japan I would see such a historic event. Tape on the Nikkei was so clean it was like trading an OTC, never seen held bids on an index before so clean. Kind of
+896k on BTC longs. Realised +434k. Still +462k unrealised. Pieced out half of BTC long around 64k. Had heavily pyramid into position. Will rescale after a rest period, still looking to pyramid into all time high breakout
For those looking to short NVDA. Little reminder about how parabolics work, I think people made this mistake on SMCI. Being a mega cap it can put in 5+ up days in a row, a catalyst will reset the "count" and a mini-consolidation day, like the one circled, will reset the count
+346k on the semis short today. Pretty sure I'm about to leave 500k on the table here but after round tripping 100-150k twice couldn't handle not covering. Chart attached is best approximation for my execution (since it was across multiple instruments).
Here is CRWD from today.
Over time I have had the question repeated a few times. Why don't you focus more on execution in your writeups?
The answer has two parts:
- The first is that execution strategy is to some extent a personal edge. People can execute the same idea different
GME long on announcement of the live stream was a potential year maker trade if you got it perfect. Even if not perfect definitely one of biggest opportunities of the year. I didn't get it right, so did a review of the nuances that I felt went into the trade.
MIRA. Didn't size this at all - don't size these halt fest ones at all anymore. But doesn't get much cleaner than this. For those who want to reverse engineer: chart clean af, obvious sustained float rotation and soaking, rewatch the tape between say 1:45 and the breakout (can
+135k on ARM. Didn't get any new followers from my ARM entries post, so need that clickbait 😂Here's the chart with my entries and exits including midday short. Didn't attempt the parabolic short, which was a mistake as it was quite clean, but also didn't want to force.
Could
Seen some really good writeups floating around and some great trades. Hopefully reading through these will show why I like them so much. Writeups are also a good way to bridge the gap between experience and perspective/different skills. For example Katerino, the least experienced
800k drawdown.
Post HOLO/SMCI analysis and comments. Hoping to provide some light on my approach when I'm in a drawdown or not performing well. After hitting the big trade on crypto recently some of the points I make may make a little more sense. Overall it's a bit waffley
+~$120k today on DWAC.
Some days you completely miss SMCI for no excusable reason. Other days you come in not expecting much and catch a big move. Have locked half and will swing the rest
At risk of stirring the hornets nest. Will delete if I do, but hopefully can provide some educational tidbits as have seen a tonne of confusion or incorrect comments said with confidence:
- The market maker will not get squeezed if DFV exercises his calls. In fact they are hoping
-82k on ARM. Some unacceptable mistakes today, that you can't make if you want to survive as a trader.
As a trader you should know what your trigger points are for tilt, when you're most vulnerable etc. For me I'm always at risk after a hot streak, and I knew it coming into
-232k on HOLO today.
Kind of odd one. Was short overnight and just kind of ignored all day for no good reason. Figured today it was a long on the red to green move, but took a small papercut trying that yesterday, so ignored it today. No chart, not much to learn from this one,
+75k on RXRX. 30k realised and leaving rest (40k shares) on for swing with 13.71 average.
NVDA has $50m investment in them, mentioned them and bios in general on conf call. XBI breaking out, high short float, high i/o, primed daily chart.
Earnings on Monday and it's a bio so
I'll give my full thoughts on this a crack, but there is definitely a few more knowledgeable than me out there.
Assuming those early buys on the 542s were small I actually think you traded it perfectly, with executions and strike selection. I could be wrong but I am guessing
Options traders - if you had my thesis today near highs that we were going red on the day but you wanted to use more $$ and less 0DTE type risk - what would your trade of choice been in this situation? Or, would you just do what I did?
My biggest strengths as a trader = ability
This is why I pay attention to a bunch of different instruments. Very rarely trade fx, but sometimes see a high EV situation. Also helps a lot with broad market understanding. It's not a coincidence that USDJPY is selling off and we just had a downtrend day that broke the no -2%
All of these are absurdly good quality and will review all 6 in one go. I feel that each review is value add to the other ones and each trader does a great job of talking through their perspective and a lot can be learnt from each one. A few of the reviews actually mention they
Seen some really good writeups floating around and some great trades. Hopefully reading through these will show why I like them so much. Writeups are also a good way to bridge the gap between experience and perspective/different skills. For example Katerino, the least experienced
Trying to review SMCI over the weekend, but it's difficult. I was long biased for most of Thursday after the fake breakout reclaim near 10am and I can confidently say I would have nailed it Friday, via puts and with size too. I had identified the call/put skew which made buying
Fun fact. The initial risk on the BTC position at Bybit that is up 529k in the pic was 10-15k. Aggressive size with tight stop, then active pyramid + trailing stop
+896k on BTC longs. Realised +434k. Still +462k unrealised. Pieced out half of BTC long around 64k. Had heavily pyramid into position. Will rescale after a rest period, still looking to pyramid into all time high breakout
Trading is stupidly difficult. Here are some of my NVDA starter position trades on Monday to try and begin my short position on the semis. Then after the fakeout I actually did nail it, and with size, then proceeded to almost completely round trip +150k. Posting these, not cause
BTC trade from 51k to 64k. Will focus purely on the BTCUSD side of things, though hopefully it will explain why I thought the BITO options were good as well.
First, focus on the big picture:
- Historically when BTC gets going it can easily put in 7 green days in a row. Studying
Just an observation looking around a few reviews and what-not from today (1st April). Todays trend day was a pretty monster opportunity.
Didn't see anyone mention or even thinking about the Nikkei move in the overnight session. It's not a "Japan is down huge so we are likely to
~+105k on TSLA. Had meant to turn the TSLA options trade into a spread by eod but turned into a day trade when it worked so well and met target. Included charts this time
Mistakes were made today. Sometimes execution and planning doesn't meet standards required. NVDA and TSLA unwinds today were fully catchable if you followed through my NVDA review and last weeks TSLA ones
I wasn't going to post MTC because things like CTNT can happen and if you don't know what you're doing, or you have a momentary brainfart you can get caught in a CTNT. But since the market showed us why you have to be careful on MTC the same day, worth a share
Just to add for anyone looking to learn from this. The mistake I made on the Nikkei sales was a complete failure of applying evolving R concept. If I'm selling there I need to be selling on the way up - either stop lod or sell on way up, no in between.
This is especially the case
Snippet from a conversation today about how to grade the LUMN short idea. Note that this is mostly just the idea itself not so much exact execution/intraday price action.
SHOT market cap on the parabolic was around $500m (iirc - might have raised since then so more OS now?). 60m
I missed the semis short and round tripped the months pnl the last two days getting chopped up long and short. Which was frustrating since I was long biased after key area holds and it went up. But here's the deal, if you want to be a good trader you've gotta own your mistakes
@RickyAnalog
@danshep55
If they can't handle the salt they should get out of the kitchen. Real traders don't need sympathy they need to hear what they need to hear
+~71k today.
Big day today that been waiting for a while. Worth jumping on the desk for while on break.
Had that right read but got a little bogged down with the different scenarios that could have played out, and then didn't flip aggressively enough or hold with enough
+20R on longs and shorts on GME/AMC today. Haven't been actively trading super well recently, so nice to have a fast and furious session where I'm fully in flow. Charts probably meaningless without commentary but fun to share
ARM. Getting a little sick of the pnl clickbait. So here is zoomed in on my entries. Only mistake here was not taking some long over previous day high.
So many DMs and questions about this lol. Firstly, yes I did lose a little money shorting it today. Execution was slightly off but no damage done.
Context was completely different on TSLA here to the other setups. Main point is that TSLA was breaking out of a base on news, while
In the interest of completeness for the day. Actually did have a few other trades. But those were the big ones. Intraday chart for NVDA here too, best frame of reference for how I traded the options but obviously I wasn't super focused on the stock execution.
TSLA on it's first assault of $1000. Gained 200% over the course of 2 months, as one of the largest stocks in the market. Three things I wanted to point out:
(1) A two day consolidation resulted in a "gap and go" despite already being overextended.
(2) The gap up parabolic day
Keep getting asked about how to start learning options. Hard for me to give a recommendation of where since I got basics from uni. But a basic checklist looks something like: (1) Learn what they, (2) Plot payoff structure of options and options strategies + various use cases, (3)
HOLO having just happened and a few fat losses taken across the board. You don't have to take fat losses and unless it's your first time, part of your plan, or something beyond your control happens there are no excuses.
Felt like a good time to share a lesson it took me many
Great writeup
@AAramTrades
I don't have much to add. I think you can tell I would trade it differently but you've taken my comments and worked out how it works for you. Good job!
Finally finished up the VERY BEST (jk, but did my best to be as exhaustive as possible ) $TSLA 7/11 Write-Up. Took me some time as I was out of town, but very happy that I was able to complete it.
Learned a lot about the broader context of 7/11, the role of CPI, the NQ & ES
BTCUSD just had one of the cleanest breakouts, through 44k, of the rally from FTX lows. Definitely a time to pay attention to BTC, when clean moves happen they tend to have more follow through (or future clean setups). Those who were paying attention may have noticed a character
+27k on NYCB. Would have actually hit this harder through the daily level if not for the other distractions today. Joined trend later after confirmed heaviness. Have covered half and willing to take the overnight news risk on other half.
+8k on SMCI. This one stings, right idea, right spot. Just didn't stick with the idea and chopped around by the spread/range. Idea was that it would have a fairly big bounce to 750+. Sometimes they just grind and gotta stay with it. Similar to the mistakes I made last Thursday on
+48k today.
Didn't actively trade today, couldn't decide if there might be a good spot and wanted to make sure I was available at the close in case the options gave a headache. I think if I had noticed the GBTC rvol I would have hit something short fairly hard. But who knows.
Here's my full take on the markets right now.
Discussing:
- Short Vol Blowout $VXX
- Econ Data $MACRO
- Carry Trade Unwind $AUDJPY
- Rotational Dynamics in $IWM $XLV and $XLF
- Dispersion Trade Unwind in $NVDA $AAPL and others
Enjoy!
Since I posted some winning trades. Here's an embarrassing one. All shorts and no damage done, just embarrassing. Had right original plan/read but sometimes you just can't execute
2023 Review: Been on holiday so a little late.
Swing trading: +973k.
Day trading: -~50k.
Crypto: ~0.
Hard year to review, many mistakes and a little all over the place. PnL curve looks like garbage, not how I want it to look (2022 one in replies for comparison). Got a little
Great job! Outperformed me! As you say definitely too many covers too early. One thing I would add for daily context on NVDA: (1) Parabolic macro top has been set, (2) Structure is currently part of dead cat bounce, so yeah not massively extended but it doesn't have to be if
$NVDA $TSLA Review & writeup
+$1746.66
First 4 figure day ever. Think 5k was doable for me if executed really well but happy with improvement after fumbling 6/20 NVDA trade.
@MoistMango12
writeup referencing Thurs/fri rule played big part in conviction.
Another really solid writeup. For me two things missing on this one:
(1) Options OI still heavily relevant even though not mopex.
(2) Importance of the robotaxi news given the context of it happening on an overextended stock. The news didn't even have to be that significant. I
GME and AMC on the overnight market. Been playing around with the overnight market a little. Overall feels surprisingly liquid and well worth adding to your toolkit if you are able.
Initial thoughts are that I would use it to ease the pressure off 4am, and to capitalise on
IRBT +$32,300. Decent trade, was pretty close to stopping me out near the open. Not super happy with the exits, but overall pretty decent. Felt that it could make a multiday move, but with a trend break near target sizing down made a tonne of sense
BMR this is what a proper stop looks like. Granted this was small, and I should have been long after the holds - wasn't paying attention due to focus on ARM.
I have a unique perspective here. Market opening middle of the night and two young kids.
Undoubtedly throughout my career my biggest losses have come when I was mega tired. It took me a long time to realise that the biggest problem was with how I was trading, not that I was
@TheOneLanceB
I love the Oura ring, helps me focus on sleep in a way that I never did before. Also helps validate what I’ve been doing for a long time intuitively which is to take naps that replenish the score and keep it relatively ok!
Personally I think all traders should try to get the
My thoughts today on semis relating to last week. Today wasn't as high grade as last weeks, but it was still fairly good. Was plenty to learn from going deep on last weeks trade
Natural gas mean reversion attempt. Took two small papercuts on this the other day then the news yesterday after hours catapulted it. On one hand the news can act as a catalyst for the mean reversion trade to work, on the other it makes the price structure a little more difficult
In line with this thesis I had added into my BTC long and got better size which I was happy with. I hit it out after the CPI print, which saved me about 1k of volatility, and at the time I figured it would give me a chance to rebuy through 50k if that's what happened
Did manage
BTCUSD just had one of the cleanest breakouts, through 44k, of the rally from FTX lows. Definitely a time to pay attention to BTC, when clean moves happen they tend to have more follow through (or future clean setups). Those who were paying attention may have noticed a character
The other opps since people are curious. This is just off top of head.
The thing is, there are so many big money opps but they have to fit into your wheelhouse. There will be so many out there I don't even know about. For me SMCI did because I like mean reversion plays and I have
I was absurdly early to this idea. It gave me added conviction on my "etf sell the news" idea. Unfortunately being super early and correct to an idea doesn't mean you print money. Execution is everything and only price pays
~ Breakeven today. Got a bit chopped around on the crypto names, and butchered the mean reversion trade on them. COIN long through r/g was fairly decent, had relative strength early. Nice catches on AMD, SAVE capitulation long and BA short trend joins.
Accidentally sold the AMD
Made a few mistakes today. Was an intense morning with some big pnl swings and then these unforced errors later. SMCI had planned to hold overnight, so early sale was a big mistake. DWAC I came in short, flipped long aggressively (which was good), but then got faked out on the
Cash Rules E-book is free on Amazon for the next few days!
I AM A TRADER (23 long hard years in the game). I am NOT a salesman. I’m not pitching a chatroom, course, or path to easy riches; as you can see, I am even willing to give my book away for free.
My goal is to provide a
In line with this observation BTC price action has cleaned up a tonne. Reflexive nature of BTC will only be enhanced by the ETFs and the liquidation hunts of old are likely a thing of the past imo - until we get a monster parabolic that is.
BTCUSD just had one of the cleanest breakouts, through 44k, of the rally from FTX lows. Definitely a time to pay attention to BTC, when clean moves happen they tend to have more follow through (or future clean setups). Those who were paying attention may have noticed a character
IRBT and LFST this week both good opps on the gap down but context matters behind setups. Similar price action on daily - daily downtrend, gap down on news, shit companies. Where they differ is in the details.
IRBT:
(1) Real news, potential bk without buyout
(2) Lower short
Overnight session on GME going off again. Closed after hours at $51. Same play as yesterday and roaring kitty released ticker on the latest vid drop at 8pm. m1 chart below
Took the trailing stops on this one as it went through each level on day 2. Really wanted this one to go d2 so happy with the locations of each trailed stop. Gave back 30k of the 45k unrealised, also fairly happy with this result.
@EternaLEnVy1991
Dumbest mentality ever. It is possible to learn from people who know less than you, especially in trading (assuming the gap isn't too big anyway)
Not that anyone has suggested I'm fake. But to get ahead of it. Bybit has a leaderboard. You can follow this link, and I'm roughly 40th on the annual rankings at the moment
Been waiting for this BTC break and managed to position exactly how I wanted to. Looking to swing it for lower at the very least a flush of 40k. Also got small swing short MARA for 15ish
@NathanFagan16
@TheOneLanceB
@TheShortBear
Honored to be on a list including these goats, they well above my level. My take: In terms of attempts first thing is that it depends on the trader/strategy and the stock. There are a tonne of variables and nuances to consider here.
Of course multiple stabs is acceptable, but on
@RickyAnalog
@danshep55
If they can't handle the salt they should get out of the kitchen. Real traders don't need sympathy they need to hear what they need to hear