Stoic trader and investor | since 2013 | driven by Philosophy & Psychology | VC & PE|Tweets are purely for entertainment purposes and not investment advice
My Path
This is the first hot market I have missed in 6 years I think.
I was gone on vacation for 1 month and really thought about the way I want to approach trading and my life path going forward.
__
The result:
I do not want to be actively trading anymore. I do not want the
Natural gas in Europe just turned negative today after its highest price only a few months ago.
Incredible job replenishing the inventory. They did not mess around.
Stanley Druckenmiller
Drunckemiller just made $46,115,000 today and +$299,368,632 this year from $NVDA.
He was the first investor to jump on $NVDA and the AI bandwagon.
Let me get this straight.
Kitty was long 120k contracts of the June 21st calls.
He could have sold at about 15 or call it even VWAP or $12.7.
That would have netted him +$84,295,200.
Instead he now has to gamble for $GME to be over $25.67 by June 21st to even make money.
Burry made a good point.
2008 was a solvency crisis, what we witnessed over the past week is a liquidity crisis.
While most compare this episode with 2008, I believe that the best comparaison is actually 1907.
--
Crisis of 1907:
The Panic of 1907 was a financial crisis set
If 1987 is to happen again, next week should be it.
Structurally it’s a different world, but these types of events only rhyme.
Scary proposition I see all over Twitter this weekend.
It took me 3-4 years to get near profitability.
It took me 5y to make 7fig, it took me 6y to make 8 figures…
I went through forex, copying trades, scalping, swinging, options and more before realizing one thing.
As long as I chase what someone else is doing, I won’t make it.
$SIVB bank crisis in short:
1. Bank grows from $60b to $189b in depositors from 2019 to 2022
2. Bank starts to invest $80b in MBS and bonds alike for which they get 1.5%
3. Investors and clients start to bleed money as valuations come down. Depositors start to drift.
4. As
Jim Simons performance is the best ever.
66% per year on average for 30 years.
At this rhythm $100 would turn into $401,090,745 within that time frame.
In other words, the self imposed liquidity cap of $10billion would have been reached after 30 years if Jim started with $2.5k
I have no talent trading.
I want to make sure it is clear.
I only know a handful 'Talented' traders.
What makes them talented?
-No data to trade
-No fear and high objectivity
-Talent in understanding flow
-Talent in understanding panic
-They can just 'show up' and trade
Why
Stanley Druckenmiller
The Soros 'Successor' who managed 7 funds at once and returned 30% for 30 years!
Here are the key lessons I learned from Stanley Druckenmiller to achieve success:
+$5,000,000 reached for the year
Closed the second best week of my career with $791,255 this week, putting me up $2,975,000 on the month.
I am pleased regarding the growth, couple of hickups in June, but fixed all mistakes and July shows the result.
$GME is a first off
In 11 years of active trading and studying 100y of price action(with gaps of course), I am yet to find anything that compares.
I have never seen a ticker open up 4 times like this.
•January 2021
•Feb/March 2021
•May 2024
•June 2024
Usually a ticker
All time put buying record.
Friday 37.4M Put option contracts traded.
The 2nd biggest was 33.6M contracts on September 23, 2022.
On Thursday 27.3M Put option contracts were bought, this was the 8th largest ever.
This comes at a time when we see record $SPY inflow.
+$747,402
All the long night finally coming to fruition. I have been patiently waiting for today, a day where preparation, opportunity and RR meet while being mentally fully rested.
Executed pretty much exactly like I wanted to.
June 2023
+$3,464,625
I am aware I am posting profitable trades and I saw some want to see the losses too.
I thought rather than looking at the wins, we would look at an entire month and specifically the losses.
Let's dissect them, look at the charts + my review process.
Trading is the art of saying “NO”
No to random trade
No to C or lower grade setups
No to setups without large range
No to trades without an agenda
No to Fomo
No to letting others get you into trades
No to chasing
No to keeping up with the jones
The hardest aspect in trading is
My first Interview 🚨
Executing Agenda Trading Strategy for Stratospheric Returns with
@TheShortBear
I know you all have been asking for it for a couple of years now and it was time.
Enjoy and share it around!
Announcement! 🚨
Over the next year, I will be releasing 92 videos I made from 2019 until 2020.
It shows my progress and thought process as I went from a few thousands per day to 100k+ per day consistently.
No hindsight, day by day growth and my thoughts.
+$487,805 $AMC
This is what I wanted from yesterday.
1. Short 50k at open.
2. Added aggresively to it to 100k on the 10.5 breakdown
3.Added to 150k on the bounce
4.Added into the 9 breakdown, lowering my stop(to 200k)
5.Added 100k with a make it or break it stop on that 100k
+$2,410,443
$CVNA and $TSLA
- High short interest
- Nice technical setup
- Bad sentiment
- 2 news pieces(debt upgrade and earnings)
Everything lined up and I sized up.
If there is enough demand I’ll make a blog post on the trade timeline that led
@TheRoaringKitty
to the gains today.
I think I have a pretty good idea of what happened.
It would be educated guessing work with as many facts as I can find but could still be good for some to
The key to successful trading and investing is not stock picking.
The key is maximizing the best hands through adaptive money management.
“The most significant is that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and
"The world has $1 trillion of data center installed, and it used to be 100% CPUs.
In the next 5-10 years, most of that $1 trillion...will be largely gen AI."
-Jensen Huang
___
CPU -> GPU
This means more Capex but also more revenue stream for cloud host companies.
It also
I might stop posting my p&l and go back the the old post layout.
I am attracting exactly the wrong kind of crowd as I suspected. People focus on the gains vs the trading performance.
I am here to try helping out motivated traders, focused on good trading, not for the ego.
Druckenmiller once again the best at vision.
Early on AI, now early on small caps.
Beyond that the sizing is amazing.
Every theme was played with conviction and trends were taken early!
+$1,563,079
Ending this week with my biggest weekly p&l, very focused trading with my mental capital at it´s maximum.
This also puts me at +$2,167,229 over the last 2 weeks and shatters my best month ever in the process.
Just quite unreal action witthin maximum liquidity.
+116.5% Trailing 1 year (smoothed 10days)
Today I made the biggest change to my portfolio in over a year.
I spent the entire morning selling off nearly all my assets.
I went from long ~200% to long ~65%.
-$216,254 $GME
Posting for the sake of transparency and to move on.
Todays gap up was a far bigger trade than Fridays.
I started short about 60k first and stopped out most into the reclaim. (very happy I learned from the last ones and stayed conservative).
As we rose into 30,
36y ago, on Monday, October 19, 1987, the market dropped 22%.
This is what Paul Tudor Jones had to say about it, as he made $100mil and returned 125.9% after fees to his investors.
I will be focusing on pure knowledge compounding over the next months and year, putting aside active trading like we talked about.
The plan is to study at least 4 individuals and read 3 books per 2 weeks to end up each quarter with 9 books and 24 individuals studied.
To study
Never give up.
Throwback to what I sent to
@Jackaroo_Trades
on 22th September 2022.
Since then I recovered all losses and went on to put on my best winning streak ever, propelling me closer to my 1B goal.
+$480,556 $FFIE
Shorted on the gap up and stopped out most into the reclaim, trying to stay patient. We stuffed hod twice in a big manner just to reclaim... another round of traps.
Lost about 250k on the first attempt.
The high 3s both alligned in terms of timeframe, tape and
Maturity in trading.
As I matured as a trader throughout the years, I gained a new perspective over unfolding time.
Small drawdowns vanish from your memories, big ones leave a scar behind as you recover, but you never forget about the battlefield and those that fell that day.
Stanley Druckenmiller on sizing from Michael Mauboussin
“There's one other thing [Druckenmiller] talked about and it was about position sizing.
Broadly speaking when you're trying to maximize your returns, you need two things.
(Expected value x size:)
One is you need some
This is one of the best takes I have seen about the banking crisis:
•FED responsibility
•HTM vs AFS bonds
•Interest rates
•Banking liquidity
…
My thoughts align on almost everything.
Who would be interested in a
@chatwithtraders
episode?
If you are please let me know what points NEED to be included within the episode and share this tweet.
For a long time I did not feel like I was there just yet and still growing. As I move towards running an investment
100,000
Thank you for your trust, help and the lessons you have allowed me to learn and share
I remember looking at 2k followers a decade ago and I continued sharing my thoughts
I’m humbled that you allow me to entertain you.I hope to continue to share my path with you all!
About big traders.
•They are all just “dudes”
•They all kinda know how to trade
•They all really know who they are or who they want to become
•They are kings at introspection
•They are all fucking weird (spectrum)
•They all love physical and mental health
•They
Biggest short position since 2011!
Large speculators boosted their short positions in S&P 500 e-mini futures to 321,000 contracts as of last Tuesday.
That is the highest short positioning since 2011.
In 2011, it put in the bottom and started the decade long bull market.
Good chart to illustrate what is likely to happen into the summer.
$QQQ and $SPY are both extended and need rest in my view.
I expect some recession headlines and in general negative sentiment to come back over the summer as we pull back.
This will likely come back just in
Warren Buffett was worth $500,000,000 when he gave this interview.
Since then he grew his net worth by another 24,000%.
That is like turning $5k into $1.2mil but at scale.
His mindset remains the same all these years later.
No one will make it happen for you... If you want something you have to realize it will take everything you have!
In times of adversity, step up and make it happen, you will thank yourself... nothing will make you more proud.
If you searched for a sign, this is it. 🥃
I will be taking a month break from Twitter, teaching and basically working all around for health reasons. I need a break...
I will leave you with this, follow your dreams and work until you get everything you wanted!
2020 equity curve so far:
This is Gary Stevenson.
He was Citi Bank's most profitable trader in 2011, earning over $35,000,000 for the bank and a million-pound bonus.
He has an incredible story and a powerful message.
Here's a recent interview with him by LADbibleTV (
@ladbible
):
$NKLA +$321,103
Finished the trade idea today.
Honestly, it respected exactly what I wanted from it and I tried my best to maximize while on my travel setup.
+$471,672 between the long from yesterday and short today.
Here is how and why I played it:
+$708,647.55
Closing up shop for the last day of 2022.
The most complicated year to date for me that was filled by tears, excitement and in general major lessons.
I have reached most targets I had set for myself and I will do a 2022 wrap up during the weekend.
$KALA +$679,165.08
Little happy new year chart from me today. I thought you would enjoy this one as it diverges a bit from the usual setups.
Shorted yesterday and got stopped out for -40k. I realized what this was shortly after and started loading in maintaining a strong avg.
For the 80k followers, I’ll be releasing my LVL2 tutorial.
It is in my slightly subjective view, the best tutorial on LVL2 reading out there and is 2 hours long.
Some of you had the chance to see it already, it is time to release it to the public.
Making it in small cap.
To make it in small caps, get to the drawing board, get rid of the intraday charts and indicators.
2. Focus on the daily OHLC data.
If you can’t find an edge as if trading the daily data, you’ll never make it trading small caps.
Most novices get lost
Jesse Livermore built up a fortunate of $100,000,000 (today $)during the 1907 bear market.
He proceeded to give it all back on a cotton trade a year later.
The books and lessons are timeless, I’m glad to see people studying the greats!
Pic:
@monsterstocks1
$SMCI +$1,417,824
On top of my swing, I day traded $SMCI.
1. Sells into strength from yesterday adds.
2. Mistakenly bought 50k shares and unloaded right away for a few dollars.
3. Dip bought and sold most into extension.
Time wise this has been the weirdest year of all
It’s only December and at the same time it’s already December!
I reached all my goals x5
I moved to the Cayman Islands🇰🇾
I met amazing people
I evolved and grew as an individual
I never changed this much within a year..blessed
Druckenmiller bought $NVDA and into the AI boom before any other of the other superinvestors.
The best part is we can learn about it from his interviews and comments.
On the AI bubble and it’s duration:
Maximizing positions and pyramiding 101
A thread 🧵
This should clear up most of the questions about my outperformance and the technique I used along the way.
Took my 3 losses in a row on $SMCI.
Not trading again no matter what as per my risk management rules.
Still up on the name and theme but no need to fight a fighter that has proven to beat me up.
I fight until I bleed, not until death.
Blocked the name and ticker on Twitter
“My best trader makes money only 63% of the time.
Most traders make money only in the 50 to 55% range.
That means you’re going to be wrong a lot.
If that’s the case, you better make sure your losses are as small as they can be, and that your winners are bigger.”
- Steve
$KALA +$679,165.08
Little happy new year chart from me today. I thought you would enjoy this one as it diverges a bit from the usual setups.
Shorted yesterday and got stopped out for -40k. I realized what this was shortly after and started loading in maintaining a strong avg.
My biggest gift is VISION.
I told you before I have no talent trading.
I am not: faster, more intelligent, have better tools..
What I do well is understand probabilities deep in the future. Situations I can put odds on happening or not.
I can see probable futures and I can
There might be much more unwinding to be done.
For those that do not understand what is likely happening.
Investors have been borrowing at very low rates from Japan for years now to invest in other markets and that free money is disappearing as interest rates rise in Japan.
Mental Model 3: Confident to be uncertain
___
Confidence in trading.
The image of the successful trader is one of a pure alpha, driven, orderly and composed individual. In short someone that has the confidence to make it happen day in and day out.
“Confidence in a world of
Trading is complicated because it is NOT
(Win rate * RR) - (Lose Rate * RR) = Success
It actually is the above and in addition:
•Edge erosion
•Backtest errors
•Emotional mistakes
•Liquidity issues
•Black swans
•No locates
•No BP
If your strategy does not have true
$TSLA +$697,866.78
Unhedged the portfolio today into the panic and $QQQ test of support at $297.
Started into it yesterday as I was talking about to mitigate the portfolio risk and be hedged via a high beta name.
This big gap up into a full sell day is something we have not seen in a while.
This is a 180 from the gap down and buy we have seen since December.
Character change.
$SPY $QQQ
Soros and Druckenmiller interview
This interview is used all across the internet when describing their trading style, however most have never seen the original.
Especially the first 5 minutes are golden.
📣Releasing the much anticipated episode early next week with
@TheShortBear
!
Be prepared to tune in👂 to this fascinating chat with Lukas Frohlich!
@tessa_dao
$NVDA +$1,826,406 acc1.
Switched bias after my short lived short stab.
The thought was simple. If this is not a distribution range we will finish the semi bull market in a parabolic.
Instant Tip to become far better as a trader:
Shift the focus from I missed because it went down(short) or because it went up(long)
To
I missed because this was predictable.
__
90% of my feed is hindsight BS about A+++ setup on something that went down…
That is on
This is the type of market where I don’t want to fight the trend but at the same time I’m worried about what the data is clearly pointing out.
A time to be nimble and have tight stops.
A time to do a lot of thinking rather than acting.
An emotional market, meeting me with a
Just a short while ago, Jen Hsun promised the world record growth coming from gaming and crypto.
What followed was a miss and the $NVDA crashed 70%.
Now the same promises are being made while the quarter missed.
However Nvidia is trading at 40x sales and 180x earnings.
At
The duration of the first phase in trading is the time it takes you to detach from what trading is portrayed as to what it actually is.
It can take months, it took me years.
Your performance will show when that switch is made.
The breadth exploded higher on Friday.
This becomes the worst situation possible for shorts.
The bad breadth short thesis of the past months,while the market hovered higher due to the mega caps failed.
Now the breadth and sectoral rotation is coming in to support the market.
Take notice when:
Stocks wait for bad news to break out higher on large volume.
Whenever bad news leads to a gap down and the gap is not only bought up but the stocks continue in a straight line higher on a major volume, that is a sign that institutional players are taking
+$5,501,922
$RIVN was one I focused on out of the bunch when the FED pulled liquidity. Believe in your ideas and research and press.
It checks all the boxes we discussed in the thread.
I hope this inspires some to go after it.
Nobody will put the hours in for you. Noone.
Immense amount of individuals wanting to sound smart not involved in this year’s market.
That was done after they preached not to play into economics as learned by Buffett and alike.
They missed 50%+ on $QQQ and 35% on $SPY
I’m always amazed how many preach lessons vs
Let’s be quicker with the private video release.
This is my archive… 100+ videos I haven’t release to the public from 2019-2021!
As I distance myself from small cap trading this is my time to share more for others.