Here's my full take on the markets right now.
Discussing:
- Short Vol Blowout $VXX
- Econ Data $MACRO
- Carry Trade Unwind $AUDJPY
- Rotational Dynamics in $IWM $XLV and $XLF
- Dispersion Trade Unwind in $NVDA $AAPL and others
Enjoy!
$NVDA is setup to break the market.
We aren't there yet but if this keeps up you've got a nasty pocket of air lower.
This is a call on market structure, not a commentary on chips, rates, or the economy.
there's an image AI that lets you generate naked people
the only way to get access to it is if you own a certain amount of their token
here's the chart:
🚨
-ONE MONTH BEFORE THE SHIT HIT THE FAN (10/11/22)
@AlderLaneEggs
warns about $FTX &
@SBF_FTX
etc to
@KeithMcCullough
"Nothing here fits. Everything reads like it's a complete scam. This thing is dirty and rotten to the core."
Watch full conversation:
[New Video]
Hunting for Leverage
With the shifts in Fed expectations, you're going to see setups similar to the $LUMN run we saw this week.
Key points:
- Debt Indexed to SOFR has pushed a ton of stocks lower
- If SOFR down, then those stocks moon
HOW TO TRADE A MARKET MELTUP
There's a possibility that large cap indices are in the early stages of a convexity squeeze.
Option/vol positioning combined with low liquidity on the supply side can lead to a "grinder" higher.
HOW TO TRADE A MARKET MELTUP
There's a possibility that large cap indices are in the early stages of a convexity squeeze.
Option/vol positioning combined with low liquidity on the supply side can lead to a "grinder" higher.
@BillAckman
Broadcast TV has used the "edit for time" excuse for decades
There now long form three hour podcasts. CBS is going to crater their market share from these moves
Incredible clip of Novak Djokovic on the mental aspect of his tennis game (reading other player, dealing with self-doubt and breathing to calm his mind).
@mattgaetz
suggestion
transfer the rules we have for corporate insiders to gov't officials
48 hour disclosure via form 4 to SEC
10b5-1 plan publicly disclosed
can't sell for 6 months without forfeiting gains
After volmageddon in Feb 2018 (date edit, thanks spencer) the next six months provided dozens of setups, both short and long, that could have made your year, even your career
$SPY $VXX
If you're looking to retire early, all you really need is $300-500k to sell options with.
Obviously you'd be better off with more, but with this much in the account you'll net $10k+ per month easily.
@SpiritofPines
Last time I went to Cracker Barrel there was some poor old women going table to table and pitching their loyalty rewards program.
I've never had a meal violated like that, it was lowest common denominator consulting.
ok here's a question
how fragile is the super-high-end real estate markets in london/nyc/vancouver now that russia/chinese money can't park capital there?
@My_Gavyy
if someone is still stuck in an oversized short vol position, we should know in the VX futures market quickly
if it's quiet into monday open and equities have a gap down, it's a buy
$TSLA
Sell 6Jan 135 Call
Buy 13Jan 135 Call
Debit: 0.45-0.50
Cheap bet, front week can expire and you own some decent convexity.
If wrong, risk is price paid, looking for 3R+
$VIX has closed over 30 nine days in a row. When VIX closes over 30 at least 5 days in a row, then closes under 30, forward $SPX returns are very positive: 10x normal in a week, 6x in a month, 4x in a quarter and more than 2x normal over the next year.