The world of work is changing. More & more Americans are choosing flexible & entrepreneurial jobs. But our policies often cling to the past, like
@USDOL
's contractor rule. Instead, let's look to the future: Flexible work benefits for a flexible workforce:
Life comes to full circle! The last time I testified for House Ed & Workforce (last April), I was 6 weeks pregnant, and now this April I’m back in the same room with my 4-month old 🥰
I’m about to testify for the House Education & The Workforce committee on the future of work and flexible benefits for a flexible workforce!
Watch it starting at 9am!
#EconTwitter
: My RA is heading to Duke to pursue his PhD in economics. We are now looking for a new RA/pre-doc to work with me on labor econ and applied micro: candidates can apply here and let me know if you have any questions!
@econ_ra
Department of Labor’s independent contractor rule makes an egregious assessment that 100 percent of impacted contracting jobs will turn into employment jobs. Not grounded in any research and aftermath of AB5 shows this will not be the case
.
@RepGrothman
and
@MissLiyaP
discussing the cost of DOL's proposed rule that would effectively fire independent contractors across the nation.
Q: "Do you find Labor's cost assessment of its rule to be realistic?"
A: "It's not grounded in any economics research."
Our new study on California's
#AB5
:
⏩Self-employment and overall employment significantly decreased post-AB5
⏩Occupations w/ high level of self-employment saw greater reductions in employment (~28%)
⏩ No robust evidence that traditional (W-2) employment increased post AB5
New
@mercatus
analysis of CA's
#AB5
finds it:
❌Reduced self-employment (-10.5%) AND overall employment (-4.4%);
❌Disproportionately hurt occupations w/ high levels of self-employment;
❌Did NOT increase traditional (W-2) employment as intended
Failure.
My Mother's Day piece for
@Discourse_Mag
on making the future of work brighter for women
In honor of the youngest member of our household, who came along to my
@EdWorkforceCmte
testimony last month & to my Joint Economic Committee briefing 10 days ago!
A privilege to write the Mother's Day piece for
@Discourse_Mag
Two key labor market developments are making the future of work brighter for working moms
1 remote work as an employee
2 growth in nontraditional work (freelancing, gig work, contracting)
PRO Act, CA's AB5, and
@USDOL
's pending independent contractor rule all reflect a narrative that the way to help independents is to make them employees. I challenge that narrative & highlight innovative policies that welcome millions of Americans who are choosing flexible work
🚨IRS study: Those who had a criminal record more likely to do gig work than employment.
“These findings suggest that non-traditional work arrangements..may be an increasingly important avenue of work for those who have previously had a criminal record.”
Independent work provides vital income opportunities for millions of older workers.
Older workers are more likely to be independent contractors than any other age group.
📺My Senate testimony today, at 34:19
🗒️Written testimony:
At 9:30am
@SenateAging
is holding a hearing, “Beyond the 9 to 5: Dismantling Barriers and Building Economic Resilience for Older Workers.”
Tune in below 📺
I’m about to testify for the House Education & The Workforce committee on the future of work and flexible benefits for a flexible workforce!
Watch it starting at 9am!
I think the point here is that the “narrative” becomes unclear if it’s so highly sensitive to small changes.
For example if the “narrative” falls apart by choosing a different base year of comparison, can really we put all our trust into this one stat?
Economists are the best.
Yes, Dept of Labor says wages rose 1% over the past 50 years.
But we prefer a different timeframe.
And a different inflation measure.
And let us tell you about other things that are better.
We are full of adjustments to make things look better.
Thank you! What would this look like if we included the value of fringe benefits? Benefits today make up a larger share of the typical employee's pay than they did 40 years ago.
We wrote about this in
@WSJ
9 years ago:
By popular demand, I've created a snapshot that uses the timeframe and deflator that some economists seem to prefer. It is [checks chart] still a disaster.
Feel free to RT with your enthusiastic endorsements.
@NathanPGoodman
& I apply behavioral economics to policing and argue that bundled services exacerbate biases within the police such that it would increase the chances of traffic stops turning violent. We argue for
@ATabarrok
&
@DKThomp
proposals on unbundling police services
Policies that restrict independent work are anti-abundance agenda driven because they seek to reduce the number of work opportunities and the diversity of work. Work opportunities come in many different shapes & sizes. In today’s economy, traditional employment is but one option
"These policies are anti-abundance agenda driven in that they seek to reduce the number of work opportunities and restrict the diversity of work to only a traditional employment arrangement."
How many criminal laws has Congress created? A new
@washingtonpost
piece draws on our research (w
@EconPatrick
): ~5,199 sections in U.S. code that create a crime. We estimate that between 1982 to 2019, the number of federal criminal offenses increased by 73 percent
Massachusetts is having a hearing about the gig economy--whether transportation and delivery app-based workers are independent contractors or employees, whether they can form a union & other issues.
I'm about to provide expert testimony, live here:
I spoke with Bloomberg TV about the gig economy & portable benefits. Key takeaways🧵
*Gig jobs (eg Uber, Doordash) account for less than 10% of the independent contractor workforce
*Workers on gig platforms are mostly supplemental earners
Segment: 2:00:00
@oren_cass
Hi Oren, I follow your work and just read your book! But my understanding of the point here is that timeframe and other adjustments do matter because if the story rests on this one stat, it needs to be robust and not so sensitive to changes.
@TheOtherRBG
@rebeccaonion
@Slate
@miss_glory
@PrincetonUPress
Rebecca, doesn’t your experience as a participant actually showcase that not all participants “idolize” the thinkers? I’ve done a recent program too but I’ve noticed that most participants never read Hayek, Ostrom. It seemed the program was about exposing thinkers for first time
I wrote about rush hour pricing in my chapter on the economics of dynamic pricing in
@MrRBourne
's "War on Prices" book.
Dynamic pricing can be helpful toward meeting customer needs, reducing waiting times and even minimizing food waste (
@Wendys
!)
.
If
@Wendys
wants to experiment with rush hour prices, they should be able to do it. Without getting attacked by Washington. Lots of industries charge different prices for different times of the day like taxis, Uber, restaurant delivery services.
Another example of misleading research to sell a narrative.
Missing context: driving is the occupation w the highest murder rate. This was true even before Uber: 2013 BLS data show that taxi drivers & chauffeurs’ murder rate was almost twice of police:
.
@Uber
’s business model is to push risks on drivers – and it’s responsible for dangerous conditions.
@GigWorkersRise
published a report that found 31 app workers were murdered on the job in 2022 – 77% POC & at least 26% immigrants.
We demand safety NOW!
#UberDriversUnite
Thank you to the Senate Aging Committee for the opportunity to testify about the growing independent workforce and how it is providing income opportunities for millions of older workers
@SenateAgingGOP
@SenateAging
🗒️Written testimony:
Our
@mercatus
study on California's AB5 finds no consistent evidence that w-2 employment increased for non-exempt occupations in California post-AB5.
Instead we find declines in self-employment and overall employment for affected occupations.
A blockbuster study confirms what we've known for years: Gavin Newsom destroyed hundreds of thousands of jobs when he signed AB 5.
Biden's national version of the law will do the same for millions of Americans. Congress must pass my legislation to nullify it.
The authors of
As we enter into a pivotal moment for the American labor movement, it’s time to rethink and redesign aspects of our institutional labor framework
Two key changes can unlock the future of an innovative and worker-centric labor movement
👉My Labor Day piece in
@NewsweekOpinion
It’s an honor to join the Board of Advisors for Liberty Ventures, an ecosystem of purpose-driven investors and entrepreneurs aligned on advancing a free and prosperous future. LV is launching on Monday at
#sxsw2023
.
Livestream at
Liberty Ventures is launching this Monday!
You can register for LV's launch or the whole day of programming at , or sign up for the livestream at .
And, on Monday, March 13th, visit to learn!
My new Capitolism
@TheDispatch
looks at the potential effects of new federal regulations re independent work, and what a new study re California's AB5 says about them (spoiler: nothing good)
"Collateral Damage in the War on ‘Gig Work’"
Inspired by
@DKThomp
’s abundance agenda, I connect it to my immigration story. Abundance is what made my American Dream come true—and it can for millions of other working families today—if we put abundance of work opportunities at the center of this agenda
What will be the impact of the
@DOL
’s independent contractor rule for workers? Join me at 10:15am today for my testimony before the House Committee on Education & the Workforce
@EdWorkforceCmte
You can watch live here:
More info:
What is new is the rise of app-based gig work since 2014. Two things to know about this:
1. A lot of people do it, but it's almost always supplemental to their W-2 income and the amounts earned are small
2. It is virtually *all* transportation work (driving/delivery)
4/
Yes. And same logic for police unions.
"The ability of police to collectively bargain led to a substantial rise in police killings of civilians, with a greater impact on people of color."
@PeterBoettke
@NathanPGoodman
@jmelemke
Former Lady Gaga Manager TROY CARTER: "I don't know how in good conscience any politician can look at what's happening right now with schools and still support the teachers unions."
As I’ve said before, no one should be in jail just for using or possessing marijuana.
Today, I’m taking steps to end our failed approach. Allow me to lay them out.
Check out my chapter for the
@ArchbridgeInst
's state policy agenda -- it focuses on lifting barriers to opportunity by enabling flexible benefits reforms for independent workers
Flexible Benefits for a Flexible Workforce IS the Future of Work!
@mercatus
We are excited to share a new state policy agenda focused on social mobility. This report highlights eight policies to empower upward mobility throughout the lifecycle. Each essay is accompanied by a legislative guide to enact change.
📎
There is bipartisan support for flexible work benefits for a flexible workforce. Senators Mark Warner & Todd Young introduced bill to test portable benefits models & 2 days ago, a portable benefits plan was introduced in Utah:
Grateful for the opportunity to work with
@StatePolicy
,
@KristiKendall1
et al on this forthcoming documentary on polarization and bridging divides. We learned so much talking w/ fellow citizens across the country. Check out the trailer!
The Department of Labor (
@USDOL
) independent contractor rule goes into effect today. Check out my piece on what the rule means for the gig economy and the growing independent work sector
& how to think through the potential costs & benefits of the rule
Work opportunities come in many different shapes and sizes. In today’s economy, traditional 9-5 employment is but one option
My latest in Labor Market Matters:
The
@AGEllison
's task force is once again showing its bias against the self-employed in
#minnesota
by taking testimony from a union-backed group named NELP. Why not hear from someone like
@MissLiyaP
who has studied the impact of AB5?
What are the five biggest myths surrounding the "gig economy"?
⏩Myth 1: The Majority of the Independent Workforce Are “Gig Economy” Workers
⏩Myth 2: The Majority of Gig Workers Are Full-time Earners on the App
⏩Myth 3: Most Gig Workers Don’t Have Access to Health Insurance
⏩Myth 4: Independent Contractors Want To Be Traditional Employees
⏩Myth 5: Large companies Are Primarily to “Blame” for the Growth of Independent Contracting
Want a quick glimpse into the latest immigration research and next steps for immigration reform? Join us tomorrow with top thought-leaders, including
@AlexNowrasteh
@adambcox
of
@nyulaw
. co-hosted by
@mercatus
Register here and see you tomorrow!
❗ New Study Alert❗
What happened in California post-AB5?
⏩ Self-employment and overall employment significantly decreased post-AB5
⏩Occupations w/ high levels of self-employment saw greater reductions in employment (~28%)
⏩No robust evidence that W-2 employment increased
A key problem is that laws written almost a 100 years ago DO NOT allow benefits to go to independent contractors. Did you know the
@USDOL
and
@IRSnews
openly discourage and prohibit companies from voluntarily providing benefits or making contributions to independent contractors?
Immigration event starting in 1.5 hours - take a lunch break and join us for a glimpse into the latest immigration research and next steps for immigration reform, with
@AlexNowrasteh
,
@adambcox
of
@nyulaw
, co-hosted by
@mercatus
:
This means the problem is not “Uber’s business model,” the problem is with the occupation itself. Recall taxi drivers have always been independent contractors.
An opportunity for comparative analysis here: are murder rates lower for Uber drivers compared to taxi drivers?
Today I had the opportunity to testify on Utah's portable benefits bill--it would be the first one in the country to remove the legal barriers that prevent companies from providing benefits or making contributions for independent contractors👇
Remote working is making the future brighter for working mothers and
@OrrellAEI
is making the future brighter for *THIS* working mother by providing excellent contributions to Labor Market Matters while I am on maternity leave : )
Thank you Brent!
Want to hear about the findings from our new
@mercatus
study on California AB5 and implications for the Department of Labor independent contractor rule? Join the Institute for the American Worker
@Inst4AW
briefing today at 11am!
Webinar registration link:
Incredible & beautiful story, and close to my heart. Please give it a read.
"Sustained strain can break the heart. People who walk to freedom often carry that strain for the rest of their lives, invisible, but ever-present."
.
@jenniferdoleac
: in case this data is of interest to any of your econ & crime researchers! It's publicly available on our website. We'll soon release the state-by-state data as well
Graph from paper using tax data: from 2001–2016, share of workers with IC has grown by 22% while the share of workers who were employees only decreased by 1.5%. Top industries of IC growth: professional, scientific, & technical, healthcare & other services
While it does appease activists, the new
@USDOL
independent contracting rule is not a simple “labor wins” story.
The DOL is taking a gamble that enough new employees will offset all of the contracting job losses from the new regulation.
My latest in
@thehill
on how misconceptions about
"gig work" (like equating small fraction of gig workers as ALL independent workers) is driving bad policy.
A privilege to write the Mother's Day piece for
@Discourse_Mag
Two key labor market developments are making the future of work brighter for working moms
1 remote work as an employee
2 growth in nontraditional work (freelancing, gig work, contracting)
There are some low-hanging fruit, simple federal & state reforms that will provide marginal steps toward a better world. We need innovative policy reforms that will create a fairer system for all workers—both employees and self-employed workers.
The latest in Labor Market Matters is my written testimony for the House Committee on Education & the Workforce hearing last week, check it out!
@mercatus
Testified alongside
@Gabby_Hoffman
&
@ktsharp2
.
@schneider_irena
telling the powerful story behind the launch of .
@HiLyrical
and how this platform creates solutions for funding scientific research. It’s an incredible idea, check it out!
It was a privilege to contribute to this excellent book. I wrote about the economics of dynamic pricing models (e.g. Uber's surge pricing, rush hour pricing, Taylor Swift concert tickets, airlines, etc.)
Boom! The flexible benefits revolution is here! At
@mercatus
, we are on the forefront of the flexible benefits for a flexible workforce research. Congrats to
@DoorDash
&
@StrideHealth
on bringing our research to life!
Links to our work below 👇
Pivotal moment in our labor movement as conservatives are now joining progressives in embracing the vital role of “pro-worker” policies.
The real question is: what ARE pro-worker policies? Policies that provide job security or policies that generate more work opportunities?
@JenSinger
@djdebutante
@veenadubal
Thanks for sharing! I'm really trying to get a sense of what that term means for people (especially because news articles seem to use it a lot, but then there seems to be a mismatch between the data they cite).
⏩Self-employment fell by 10.5 percent on average, while overall employment fell by 4.4 percent on average
⏩Our findings suggest that AB5 did not simply alter the composition of the workforce as intended, with more workers becoming employees and fewer workers as contractors
@OrrellAEI
's latest in Labor Market Matters tackles the question of how to build a career in the age of AI
Planning for this uncertainty may require investing in broad skill sets that give workers a diversified “portfolio” of capacities.
@mercatus
@AEI
A recent AEI (
@AEIecon
) survey shows that when it comes to making job decisions, flexibility trumps all.
A striking 78 percent of American workers say flexibility in their job is “one of the most or a very important” factor in looking for a job.
We are accustomed to “surge pricing” when requesting Ubers during rush hour or booking last-minute flights. But dynamic pricing is now creeping into our daily lives -- is that a bad thing?
I address this in
@MrRBourne
's new book "The War on Prices"
How to solve the nursing shortage?
This
@WSJ
article highlights how platforms like
@CareRev
are connecting independent nurses with hospitals who need shifts filled. Great example of flexible labor supply & role of independent workforce.
@MeloVitor_
Hospital
#nursestaffing
committees do not work; legislation should set minimum nurse staffing requirements. Read the excellent article linked below in the
@StarTribune
.
#NurseTwitter
@GeneSohoForum
@JoshEakle
Hi Gene! How are you?! I just to share a perspective: from my part of the world, it’s Putin/Russia that is the war machine, and sadly it’s true. No former soviet republic can have freedom from Russia: when they try, Putin starts problems and a war (see Georgia, Armenia, etc.).
Thanks
@Gabby_Hoffman
! Reclassification polices are tools of the past trying to solve the challenges of the future. Portable benefits offer sustainable solutions in the long run as the nature of work continues to change and flexible and diverse forms of work become the new norm
.
@MissLiyaP
’s latest
@mercatus
policy brief on portable benefits offers an antidote to forced worker reclassification pushes from regulators and lawmakers.
Benefits should be decoupled from employers and should follow workers. Read more at
@IWF
🚨 New podcast 🚨 with THEE incredible
@OrrellAEI
on Hardly Working, we discuss:
👉Rise of new work arrangements
👉Substackers, Instagram influencers, and the “creative class” of workers
👉How to welcome workers into the future economy
⏩Instead, AB5 is associated with a significant drop in self-employment and overall employment in California
Summary of results at Labor Market Matters:
Full paper:
It was a pleasure to be a part of the Workforce Futures Initiative with
@AEI
@BrookingsInst
&
@Kennedy_School
contributing to the findings on gig, contract & non-traditional work arrangements (with my co-experts
@dkoust
& Susan Houseman).
@NYCSpeakerCoJo
Why not congestion pricing rather than capping? It’s more effective solution without having all the downside that New Yorkers and drivers will face.
New Morning Consult survey result is consistent with the IRS tax data: majority of app-based "gig workers" use these jobs to supplement W-2 income. This helps explain why most of them do not prefer to be employees, since they are already full or part time employees elsewhere
More & more Americans are choosing flexible forms of work. But our policies often cling to the past. Did you know that
@USDOL
&
@IRSnews
openly discourage/prohibit benefits for independent contractors?
@Libertas
,
@StrideHealth
have brought our ideas at
@mercatus
to life in Utah
Change is slow. Over a year after we passed the first-of-its-kind bill in Utah, SB 233, I'm so thrilled to see portable benefits taking root. Shoutout
@MissLiyaP
, whose ideas inspired this whole thing!
An important question here is what is the pattern for wage growth by occupation & by establishment size?
Relevant because small employers/"Main Street businesses" may struggle to raise wages, and I wonder how much that accounts for lower wage growth in certain occupations?
5/ The pattern repeats across all sorts of occupations where purported shortages exist: wage growth barely above zero, and way below the economy-wide level and the rate of productivity growth. Again, you can’t claim “shortage” when this is what's happening to the price of labor.