We invest 10s of billions of dollars in R&D to live longer & healthier lives
What if we were to take a similar level of seriousness in R&D against society's hardest social problems?
@stanfordimpact
is aiming to build a scalable model to do just that 👇
And now for some personal news:
I just won the
@HamiltonMusical
lottery tickets and I am through-the-roof excited! Second row seats tomorrow evening!! 👍
Some personal news... I got married!! 🥰
Have never been filled so full of emotion as it was to be surrounded with so many family & friends showering us with their love! Feel so fortunate to be able to marry the love of my life!!
"Despite statements in support of racial justice, many organizations fail to make good on their commitments to diversity"
Highly relevant new paper by
@mwkraus
w/
@BrittTorrez
@LaStarrHollie
"Despite statements in support of racial justice, many organizations fail to make good on their commitments to diversity"
Highly relevant new paper by
@mwkraus
w/
@BrittTorrez
@LaStarrHollie
It's remarkable to me how many remarkably effective anti-poverty programs come down to just giving people the *freedom to move* to better opportunities
First ever publicly available micro-estimates of wealth released for *all* low- and middle-income countries.
Also includes granular population estimates
*beta* version of their interactive poverty maps➡️
#opendata
Stunning results: ↗️ access to clean water via
@evidenceaction
's Dispensers for Safe Water reduces child mortality by a stunning 63% against baseline in Kenya. Very cost-effective
This per a new 📄 by
@jhaushofer
@brandonjoeltan
Maertens & Michael Kremer
Excellent to see USAID take a hard look at the quality of its impact evaluations. All funders of evidence should do this! Hope this leads to specific improvements.
New report: "ASSESSING THE QUALITY OF IMPACT EVALUATIONS AT USAID"
#econtwitter
"Economists often default to assumption that cash is always preferable to in-kind transfer. Do beneficiaries feel the same way?"
In Ethiopia the answer is a resounding "NO!" 🧵👇
by
@kallehi
& Hoddinot
#econtwitter
When pension plans were introduced in Ghana & Indonesia, it undermined local traditional practices of old age support. Parents invested less in children, meaning kids didn't get as much education.
New
@AEAjournals
paper by
@BauNatalie
Depressing fact of the day: In Ethiopia, neither a $300 cash transfer nor a job offer had any measurable impact on youth after 5 years--all impacts converging to near zero.
New long-run follow up by
@cblatts
Dercon & Franklin.
#NBERmonday
“45 million Bangladeshis consume drinking water with arsenic”
➡️An estimated “6% of total mortality in Bangladesh is due to chronic exposure to arsenic” and “reducing Bangladeshi arsenic retention to US levels would, on average, increase household income by 9% per male worker”
While we are distracted by COVID, arsenic poisoning remains an important public health threat in Bangladesh and West Bengal. An article summarizing the effects of various strategies to mitigate this threat -
A 20-hour program had persistent effects on gender equality 2 years later 👀😮
And, the government of Punjab is rolling this out to *all* its upper primary school students. 🏫👩🏫
A win for evidence-informed policy! 🎉
New version of our paper, "Reshaping Adolescents' Gender Attitudes: Evidence from a School-Based Experiment in India."
Class discussions on gender equality increased support for gender equality by a lot. The effect was still present 2 years later.
What works to support the extreme poor out of poverty?
Everyone has their favorite poverty-fighting approach. Some of these debates have gotten downright ideological!
New research out brings evidence to bear on common debates.
What works best in Niger? 🧵👇
Phenomenal to finally see presented the ambitious study of large 1-time cash transfers in Kenya by
@PaulFNiehaus
@tedmiguel
@jhaushofer
et al.
Finds:
➡️positive spillovers on non-beneficiaries
➡️+ but tiny inflationary effects
➡️fiscal multiplier of 2.4!!
#ASSA2021
@GiveDirectly
The world is focused on the rising case counts of
#COVID
and economic impacts. Those are important, but let's take a moment to think about a neglected third dimension--an emerging mental health epidemic. (1/n)
Thrilled to have joined
@poverty_action
to discuss building career paths translating research into policy.
Which was weird, given I could still very much use some career advice as well!!
Are you a policymaker and don't have the ability or time to run long-term rigorous evaluations to inform design?
Imagine if you could get rigorous evidence in a fraction of the time and cost? Or when RCTs are impossible or unethical.🧵👇 /1
How did a tiny arm of USAID, representing < 0.1% of USAID funding, achieve benefits 17x what it cost?
And what does it imply for USAID's future?
Great blog by
@DaveEvansPhD
@s_e_rose
et al of
@CGDev
⬇️
Imagine if you could *QUADRUPLE* the impact of an intervention
That's what authors 👇 did by running a set of quick iterative experiments that build on each other
These seem a lot better than one-off RCTs
I've seen more of this recently & look forward to seeing even more! 🧵👇
The most encouraging paper I've read in education in recent memory & highly relevant to recovery from pandemic learning losses in Colombia, w/model design for policy analysis.
@MatiasBusso
et al forthcoming in JHR cc
@DaveEvansPhD
@singhabhi
@leecrawfurd
"Following 6 years of technical support across India... the capacity of the national government to fund & coordinate a national mass deworming program has reached a level that no longer requires planning support from Evidence Action"
Our Deworm the World Initiative supported treatment of 280 million children in 2019. We’re not likely to see figures as high again—and this is an achievement to celebrate. Here's why:
Like development economics?
NEUDC is hosting its annual conference on development economics chock full of 2 days of interesting panels.
It's free! And on zoom!! (so you don't have to feel embarrassed if you're a non-academic like me😳)
#EconTwitter
I'm irrationally exuberant about the launch of a new Advance Market Commitment to support equitable access for a COVID vaccine. Launch w/ $567m and a nifty new name (COVAX AMC). Congrats to all who made this happen! (1/2)
"How should we fund science?"
New panel next week w/
@mattsclancy
@tylercowen
@EmilyOehlsen
@carolyn_sms
& Williams. Lots happening in this space with new evidence coming out at an increasingly fast pace. Looking forward to the event!
.
@GiveWell
is recruiting researchers, at varying levels of seniority, to help direct funds to outstanding opportunities to help the world's poor.
We have a number of PhDs and are looking to expand.
More info⤵️
This paper is laying the foundation for I believe will lead to profound changes in education financing in 10 years time—ultimately helping to prioritize limited education resources to where they can do the most good.
🧵below
New article in
@ScienceMagazine
about poverty & governance by Rohini Pande
Improving welfare for the poor means not just policies that benefit the poor but also securing agency & voice--improving the institutions that the poor experience HT
@t8el
Fraud found in data behind influential behavioral psych paper. Authors included some titans in field
Author says he wasn't involved in data processing & never checked data integrity
Much to be learned from this…🤦♂️
HT
@ryancbriggs
Who becomes an inventor? Hint: Relatively little has to do w/innate ability
These
#s
are staggering. Rich kids 10x more likely than poor kids. Huge gaps in gender
The result? Millions of "Lost Einsteins". NBER Paper by Chetty
@johnvanreenen
et al →
Many algorithms aim to estimate A, but can only measure some proxy, B.
In new paper,
@m_sendhil
&
@oziadias
draw on many examples, to show how this can introduce inequalities on a *massive* scale.
#ML
#algorithimicbias
Very excited to welcome
@NeilBuddyShah
to
@GiveWell
where I’ll be working with him to learn from and contribute to the broader global health & development communities. Excited for what’s in store!
Much of the literature looking at the effectiveness of research funding looks at citations not societal benefit.
This paper ⬇ is an exception! It follows 101 basic science publications to see which led to use.
What was the biggest predictor of real-world use? 🤔👇
The effect of
#COVID
in poor countries will be quite different in part b/c of their much younger population. Important point by
@DaveEvansPhD
& Werker
“we need models of the spread of COVID-19... w/ parameters specific to low-income countries”
@CGDev
Diverse candidates are particularly encouraged to apply (We sponsor visas & remote work is possible!)
Please help us reach people we wouldn't otherwise with a RT!
.
@GiveWell
is recruiting researchers, at varying levels of seniority, to help direct funds to outstanding opportunities to help the world's poor.
We have a number of PhDs and are looking to expand.
More info⤵️
Microcredit has no impact on most people, but *really* large impact on a minority of entrepreneurs.
6 yr findings from Hyderabad, India in new paper by
@cynthia_kinnan
@emilybreza
Duflo, Banerjee.
#ASSA2021
From small-scale efficacy studies around the world, we now have evidence on the optimal design of early childhood development (ECD) interventions. However, much less is known about how to actually scale these programs, especially in resource-poor settings. 1/n
One of the things I love about Schools of Medicine are that faculty often split their time between research and practice. Their research gets better from their practice; and their practice gets better through their research.
I wish this were more the norm in the social sciences!
WOW! Punches were FLYING today in a side panel of
@WorldBank
annual meetings
If you want to understand the malfunction of our international architecture *strongly* suggest watching this. Quick 🧵👇
“We are no longer solely an evidence-generating organization, but rather an evidence mediator.” In SSIR’s Fall 2021 issue,
@heidilinz
, Bethany Park &
@radharajkotia
(
@poverty_action
) write about write about collecting data and putting it into use.
Fully vaxxed!! 💪
Absurd to think that I'm one of the 7 out of 100 people globally to be protected, thanks only to this odd quirk of being born (& living in) one of the richest countries in the world.
Time to continue the fight for
#VaccineEquity
& health equity.
New microsite looks at over 2 decades of evidence-to-policy in in international development.
👉What's been achieved and
👉What the field can do more of to increase it's policy impact.
working grp led by
@CGDev
@RuthLevine5
@glassmanamanda
1/n
Very neat new paper out w/ two big conclusions for effectiveness in philanthropic giving:
➡ "Donors vastly underestimate differences in charities’ effectiveness"
➡ ... and when you tell, they donate more to the effective charity.
When does evidence get used that improves peoples lives?
See what happened when
@BITAmericas
ran 73 RCTs across 67 US City departments. How many cities used the evidence after the RCT ended?
Fascinating📄by
@ElizabethLinos
@sdellavi
Kim
#econtwitter
A change in how social transfers were delivered in
#Indonesia
(from food to food stamps) substantially increased benefits to targeted beneficiaries while *saving* the government money!
New evidence by Banerjee,
@rema_nadeem
, et. al
#nbermonday
Just found this phenomenal set of research commissioned by
@FCDOResearch
(formerly DFID).
Looking forward to the UK continuing to be a leader in producing cutting-edge, action-oriented research to improve the lives of the poor & most marginalized.
Looking forward to
#ASSA2020
this weekend. Will be interviewing for
@GiveWell
(we're hiring!) and unabashedly nerding out with
#econtwitter
.
If you see me, come say hi!!
@KelseyTuoc
This is an important perspective on the study. It's also an angle that is completely absent from the Bloomberg article (which reads like a press release).
As someone who understands the media more than I, how is it that certain articles avoid critical engagement with research?
This is pretty remarkable that the
@worldbank
is promoting safe migration. I haven’t seen them do this before.
Research (by
@m_clem
& others) suggests the potential global gains are in the trillions—way more than reducing trade barriers.
Male and female migrants face different opportunities and risks. An ongoing World Bank study evaluates the effectiveness of different ways of promoting safe migration practices.
I'm puzzled when funders gloat about their selectiveness—picking only 5% out of 100s of applications
That seems to be a great measure of the amount of time wasted filling out & reviewing apps; but says little about the quality of funded proposals
Quality > quantity
New descriptive evidence on depression and loneliness among the elderly poor around the world.
Can cash alleviate mental health burden? In Tamil Nadu & Ethiopia, a cash transfer provided short-term relief, but results vanished a few months after transfer ended
Whoa. A time-limited
#cash
transfer + info had a *200%* return in Northern Nigeria. Impact sustained after cash ended
Kids are *way* healthier, which means they'll likely live longer (+ earn more as adults)
New AER 📝by
@ImranRasul3
@carneiro_econ
@LucyKraftman
@Giacomo_Mason
Public policy is conducted at scale. Why not use that scale to continue learning what works to improve policy?
@karthik_econ
&
@PaulFNiehaus
join
@vox_dev
to share great work being done to study programs in the scaled-context in which they're delivered
COVID is driving tens of millions of people into poverty that weren't in poverty before the crisis.
Where will they be located? Primarily in South Asia
Did you know road accidents are one of the top causes of death among young adults?
@SafeBoda
makes motorcycle taxis, safe, fair & convenient. Took a ride with Steven (driver
#5
!) in Kampala.
@GlobalInnovFund
proud to be one of the early investors.
What's the impact of
#edtech
on learning? Few products undergo rigorous eval. Now one (
@eiindia
's Mindspark) is published in AER.
"Disrupting Education? Evidence on Technology-Aided Instruction in India" By
@karthik_econ
@aganimian
@singhabhi
The nature of African migration is changing.
90% of people on popular migration routes in West Africa planned to stay on the continent.
New
@kcsalmon
piece in
@TheEconomist
includes analysis from
@ImmigrationLab
"12 key metrics to understand the state of the world"
Great for anyone who wants to better understand how much our lives have improved, and how much remains to be done! Just bookmarked this!
HT
@Effect_Altruism
.
@WHO
@WorldBank
& govts have been making a *major* push towards Universal Health Care to improve health
#UHC
But what does the evidence show?
In this study, impt barriers get in the way of UHC translating into improved health in India. The findings might surprise you! 🧵👇
Major kudos to French govt for launching this! 🎉
Building on USAID DIV's impressive track record &
@GlobalInnovFund
, the French fund will focus on innovations that are:
➡️Evidence-backed
➡️Cost-effective
➡️Scalable & sustainable
Adding a local worker to a govt-run early childhood program in
#India
led to
↗️learning outcomes 18 mo later
↘️stunting & severe malnutrition
Authors estimate benefits are at least 10x the cost
New paper by
@aganimian
@karthik_econ
@c_r_walt
#ECD
#ECE
Why did low-cost phone tutorials during COVID-19 work exceptionally well in some settings (e.g. w/
@youthimpactorg
), but not in others?
Read the paper below to find out some potential reasons. 👇
Thinking of an Econ PhD? Read 🧵👇
Resonates a lot w/me! I *love* research, but quickly realized it was consumption not production I loved—& wanted greater breadth
Was fortunate to realize that *before* starting PhD! HKS's
#MPAID
turned out to be a phenomenal fit!
#econtwitter
'Who should do (or not do) a econ phd?' is a question I get asked often
So I wanted to share some of my thoughts today:
- production vs consumption of research
- digging 3 layers vs 17 layers deep
- 'why' vs 'how'
Details 👇
Impressive 9-year study finds one-time lump-sum transfer in Uganda had income gains 1.8x transfer amt + permanent ↗ in assets & skilled work. Though, not a a panacea--no permanent escape from poverty trap.
Great new
@nberpubs
working paper out by
@cblatts
et al.
(1/4) Important news today:
@Gavi
's CEO proposes a
#COVID
-19 Advanced Market Commitment (AMC) "working closely with CEPI,
@worldbank
& others to do this". ~min 2:43:00 here:
Policymakers face 10s if not 100s of different options on how to achieve a given policy goal. How might they learn fast what works best for their context?
New paper shows how an India state w/
@JPAL_SA
tested 75 different options in ~3 years
Best policy ↗️measles vax by 55%!🎉
#OpenPhilanthropy
is recruiting for an exciting new Program Officer role to manage $20-30m budget aiming to improve the impact of foreign aid.
Know someone who'd be fantastic? Please pass along! (& RT!)
New report on COVID vaccines finds:
1️⃣ There’s a 50% chance we will have a vaccine approved by April 2021, and 85% chance by December 2021.
2️⃣ It’s unlikely that everyone worldwide will have access to a vaccine before *September 2023*
.
@GiveWell
is recruiting researchers, at varying levels of seniority, to help direct funds to outstanding opportunities to help the world's poor.
We have a number of PhDs and are looking to expand.
More info⤵️
.
@BerkOzler12
@Susan_Athey
& others running a contextual bandit to improve take up of family planning & reduce unintended pregnancies in Cameroon
At the end they'll have tailored recommendations, causally identified.
Only 2nd contextual bandit in intl devt that I know of
Adaptive platform trials are making it far cheaper & faster to learn about life-saving drugs!
#DataScience
community uses multi-arm bandit algorithms to optimize what you see on Amazon & Netflix.
When will we see more of these approaches in
#intldev
? Pls share your examples!!!
As California hits a series of unhealthy air quality days, it's worth recalling that this is just "another day" for 10's of millions of people in cities experiencing pollution levels like Delhi.
"the hypothetical eradication of malaria, resulting from, e.g., the introduction of an effective vaccine, would be associated with a reduction in the incidence of violent events by around 14 percent"
Wow.😯
Piece I want to write:
"The literature review is broken: Why Policymakers & Practitioners are a crucial part of understanding and prioritizing gaps in our knowledge"
"What we’re hoping to do is give every American a quick refresher on how to use statistical analysis… to make Bayesian inference—simple stuff, but important nonetheless"
🤣😂😂😂 HT
@RuthLevine5