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Maria Snegovaya Profile
Maria Snegovaya

@MSnegovaya

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Russia/CEE, Senior Fellow @CSIS , Postdoc @CERESGeorgetown , @Columbia PhD, @HSE_eng кэн Looking into the abyss TK:

https://t.co/yfmFF4DbSU
Joined April 2014
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
9 months
Hooray! My dissertation-based book "When Left Moves Right: The Decline of the Left and the Rise of the Populist Right in Postcommunist Europe" with Oxford University Press is out on January 30, 2024! The book explores the rise of right-wing populist parties in East Central
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
Russia Consulate in NYC
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
The best! 🤣
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
Promising signs of the elite split? Two big Russian Olygarchs: Alfa Bank's Mikhail Fridman and Rusal's Oleg Deripaska have cautiously started to speak up against war at this point.
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
A girl with an antiwar poster showed when Russian propaganda TV broadcast aired
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
Big news from Russia today is that China's payment system UnionPay which was widely advertised in Russia as an alternative to Visa/Mastercard, has refused to cooperate with Russia's largest bank Sberbank our of fear of being sanctioned by the West.
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NEXTA Live

Удар в спину от брата Си Китайская платёжная система UnionPay отказалась сотрудничать со Сбером, опасаясь попасть под санкции. Ранее США заявляли, что если китайские компании будут помогать России в...

t.me
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
In Moscow peace supporters figured a way to convert the Z symbol into a Dove. via Kirill Krivosheev
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
In my new article I argue that Russians’ support for UKR war (50-60%) is not due to lack of information only. People who try to reach out to Russians often encounter direct refusal to believe evidence of atrocities committed by RU soldiers in Ukraine 1/
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Why Russians Support Putin’s War Against Ukrainians

Are Russians really brainwashed by the Kremlin's propaganda?

nationalinterest.org
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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Сумская область. Пёс вернулся к руинам своего дома Sumy region. The dog returned to the ruins of his home
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Variations on Putin-Macron meeting
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
In Russia, in the last 3 days only, there have been 4 attempts to set military enlistment offices on fire. And since the beginning of the war, at least 11 military registration and enlistment offices have been set on fire. Resistance to covert mobilization is growing
@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
В России в только течении 3х последних дней произошли 4 попытки поджогов военкоматов . А с начала войны подожгли уже не менее 11 военкоматов. Сопротивление скрытой мобилизации растет.
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Maria Snegovaya
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Some quick notes: 1) US intel leaks prob helped shift the start of RU operation. But infoattacks failed to alter Kremlin's calculus. Kremlin was forced to fake reasons for starting the war, provocations. It didn't work. Eventually RU decided to act w/o any formal pretext AT ALL.
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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Together with @PowerVertical we argue that the belief that Putin never backs down is wrong. He often backs down when faced with resistance. But this misguided belief led to Western leadership self-deterring in Ukraine. Please share with your policy-makers!
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Vladimir Putin Often Backs Down

The idea that Russia’s leader always fights to the finish is a myth.

foreignpolicy.com
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
And there is more! RU delegation head at UN climate conference, Oleg Anisimov, apologized to the UN for RU aggression: “I apologize on behalf of all Russians unable to prevent this conflict. Those who see what is happening cannot find any justification for attacking Ukraine.” 1/
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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Unbelievable. Kadyrov's daughter speaks against the war in Ukraine
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
Полный перевод доклада ООН о преступлениях российских военных против гражданских лиц в Украине. Эмоционально тяжелый документ, но просим распространить его среди ваших знакомых и родственников в РФ.
доклад УВКПЧ финал.pdf
drive.google.com
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
In our new article by Post-Soviet Affairs with Kirill Petrov we discover a remarkable continuity b/w Soviet and Putin-era elites. We analyzed Putin's top 100 elites and found that the share of those with Soviet nomenklatura ties NOW (30 years after the USSR collapse) is ~60% 🧵1/
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
10 months
Ну, вот наконец я сделала то, о чем мечтала уже больше полутора лет – съездила в Киев. Потому, что ощущаю свою огромную ответственность, как россиянка, за то, что не только Путин, подчеркиваю, а страна-Россия в виде ее солдатов-убийц и насильников, в виде ее на все ужасы
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"Наше расследование показало, что в Россию можно ввезти практически всё что угодно из любой точки мира — от чипа двойного назначения до турбореактивного двигателя для Airbus. В схемах через третьи страны участвуют западные компании, а российские власти благополучно обходят
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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A data set of ~8 mln articles about Ukraine collected from more than 8,000 RU websites since 2014 shows that references to Nazism were relatively flat for 8 years and then spiked to unprecedented levels on Feb. 24. They have remained high ever since.
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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BETTER THAN IT COULD BE, BUT WORSE THAN IT SHOULD BE. Quick thoughts on 6 months of Russia's war in Ukraine. 1) This is likely a protracted war for years to come that will go on until Putin's death. It's now clear that it did not begin in 2022, but in 2014 or even in 2003.
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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Этот огромный плакат висит в самом центре Риги напротив российского посольства РФ, буквально в 10 метрах от него. This huge poster hangs in the very center of Riga in front of the Russian Embassy, literally 10 meters away.
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Maria Snegovaya
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This phenomenon is known as cognitive dissonance. When people encounter info that challenges their preexisting beliefs, it leads to a cognitive dissonance, a mental discomfort, which people want to avoid. Hence, they tend to reject information that creates unpleasant feelings. 3/
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Maria Snegovaya
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Роман Карцев. Две минуты - квинтэссенция Русского мира as is via Чипирующий Бомбардировщик
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We should thus be crafting strategies to reach out to Russians and help them overcome cognitive dissonance. Liberalizing media is not enough. One should think about ways to force people out of resistance and denial, to make them challenge and ultimately revise their beliefs.5/5
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Maria Snegovaya
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The Ukrainian Army Has More Tanks Now Than When The War Began—Because It Keeps Capturing Them From Russia
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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even when directly provided evidence of it—even when such information is presented by their blood relatives. It is common for Russians to deny and refuse to believe these facts, instead claiming that such facts/photos/videos are fake. 2/
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@MSnegovaya
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3) RU is hard to target precisely because it's embedded in the liberal economic order created by the West as a result of globalization. It was believed that such interdependence should deter the aggressor, but in reality, it is the aggressor who limits the defense of his victim.
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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Interesting! The oligarch networks are fragile when targeted by attacks on highly connected nodes. Sanctioning these professional intermediaries may be more efficient in disrupting dark finance flows than sanctions on their wealthy clients
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Complex systems of secrecy: the offshore networks of oligarchs

Abstract. Following the invasion of Ukraine, the USA, UK, and EU governments–among others–sanctioned oligarchs close to Putin. This approach has come under

academic.oup.com
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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Друзья, очень важно! "Эхо Москвы" заблокировано в эфире, но продолжает работать на следующих платформах. РАСКРУТИТЕ ЭТУ ИНФОРМАЦИЮ!!! 1) YouTube () 2) Яндекс.Дзен () 3) Сайт «Эха Москвы» () 1/2
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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4) I will add that powerful sanctions are still needed, not to stop the Kremlin (which is unlikely at this point), but to discourage other international vultures who are now closely following the developments in Ukraine.
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
Анекдот: "Сарочка, то что мы 20 лет принимали за оргазм оказалось астмой..." Так и в жизни: то, что мы много лет принимали за особую русскую душу, мессианство, духовность..., оказалось обыкновенным фашизмом.
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
When the sanctions bring a true economic crisis to Russia, many will decrease their support for war. However, in light of the above considerations, these changes may not be as radical and pronounced as many in the West expect. 4/
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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Россияне: знать о чудовищных преступлениях собственной армии в Украине не хотят. После таких постов в Телеграме от меня отписываются десятки людей! Зато часто пишут "за что нас так притесняют" на Западе? За что нам отключили Визу/Мастеркард?" "Как теперь жить?" Вот и я не знаю.
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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2) The same with sanctions: they are potent, but won't later Kremlin's thinking. Something qualitatively different is needed. It feels that the West is always one step behind in a situation where the stakes have risen significantly.
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Ответ на вопрос, зачем нужны санкции. А вот зачем 👇
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Despite the fact that Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world, dozens of Russian weapons tycoons have faced no Western sanctions
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Dozens of Russian weapons tycoons have faced no Western sanctions

A Reuters examination of companies, executives and investors underpinning Russia's defense sector shows a sizable number of players have yet to pay a price.

www.reuters.com
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
Министерство бороны Украины берёт на себя обязанности Министерства обороны России. С сегодняшнего дня заработала горячая Линия Минобороны Украины, где родственники российских военных, которые потеряли связь с родными, могут узнать их судьбу.
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Maria Snegovaya
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Украина / Ukraine 💛💙
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
Zelensky before and after one year of war
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. @Biz_Ukraine_Mag : “Vladimir Putin may well be the first leader in history to attempt annexations while his army is retreating.”
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Russia has again tried to change Europe's borders by force. What’s next?

Our experts map out what to expect after Putin's latest major escalation.

www.atlanticcouncil.org
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
Слушая выступление Путина... Дорогие россияне, а вас не заботит, что ваш президент так обсессивно озабочен состоянием дел в ДРУГОЙ стране? А Россия его совсем не интересует?
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
Вообще, конечно, страшно, насколько эти люди живут в своем мире: Российский телеканал НТВ в титрах подписал президента Владимира Зеленского и Украину по аналогии с ИГИЛ.
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Russia has lost about one-quarter of its troops, weapons and military equipment originally sent to invade Ukraine less than two months ago, a senior U.S. defense official said Tuesday
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Pentagon: Russia has lost about 25% of its combat power originally used in the Ukraine invasion

Russia has lost about one-quarter of its troops, weapons and military equipment originally sent to invade Ukraine less than two months ago, a senior U.S. defense official said Tuesday.

www.stripes.com
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
5 months
"Напишу несколько (злых и жестоких) слов поводу нашумевшего фильма М.Певчих. Дело не в залоговых аукционах,не в квартире Б.Ельцина и не в «украденных» выборах. Все значительно хуже. Россия в очередной раз не выдержала реформ, которые действительно были долгие и тяжелые,но не по
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
Every day that passes #Russia wages an illegal war upon a peaceful neighbour. Join the urgent call for a new #NurembergTribunal to investigate #Putin and his cronies for the international crime of #aggression . #StandWithUkraine Sign & RT:
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This call to put Putin on trial is gaining momentum

People from around the world are calling for Putin to stand trial for crimes in Ukraine. Let's add two million voices to this urgent call for justice and peace!

secure.avaaz.org
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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Putin’s Ukraine genocide is rooted in Russian impunity for Soviet crimes
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Putin’s Ukraine genocide is rooted in Russian impunity for Soviet crimes

Failure to hold anyone accountable for the crimes of the Soviet era has fostered a climate of impunity in modern Russia that has paved the way for the genocidal invasion of Ukraine, writes Alexander...

www.atlanticcouncil.org
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
And it might continue with periods of recess and escalation until Putin's death, at least. Contrary to the popular idea, the problem is not only Putin, but the Russian elites and society, the lack of fundamental changes in their thinking after 1990.
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
May 9 (Victory Day), 2022
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In general, thanks to Prigozhin, we learned more about the Russian system of power in one day than in 5 years. Credit where credit is due.😉
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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Неравнодушные люди чудом за двое суток смогли опубликовать книгу мученически погибшего в российской тюрьме талантливого музыканта и писателя Павла Кушнира. "Павел Кушнир умер в безвестности и одиночестве. Эта книга была подготовлена к печати в Германии в немыслимые сроки, за
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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NEXTA Live: ⚡️Prosecutor of The Hague International Criminal Court launched an investigation against officials of the Russian Federation Now in Hague they will be intensively engaged in the search and collection of evidence against the actions of Putin and his entourage.
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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Wow what a coincidence indeed that the "Die Welt" got blocked in Russia immediately after Ovsyannikova was out
@A_SHEKH0VTS0V
Anton Shekhovtsov
@A_SHEKH0VTS0V
2 years
As soon as one of the stages of PsyOp Ovsyannikova ended - she was dismissed from the "Die Welt" newspaper, this German newspaper was blocked in Russia.
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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Глубокий, сильный, выстраданный фильм Андрея Лошака о том, что стало с ребятами, которые работали в штабах Алексея Навального, сегодня. Многие травмированы, потеряны, часть в тюрьме, большинство за границей, но встроиться в новый мир получается далеко не у всех. Что-то вроде
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
1 year
Defeat Russia to the maximum possible extent, so it takes years if not decades to rebuild its military. Meanwhile, make sure Ukraine promptly joins NATO before Russia has a chance to start it all over again (and it will want to)
@McFaul
Michael McFaul
@McFaul
1 year
For years, NATO countries feared that the expansion of NATO to Ukraine would trigger Putin. But Putin invaded Ukraine anyway. So after the war is over, is there a reason to not invite Ukraine to join NATO? Your thoughts?
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On the right - this is what Alexey Navalny (46 y.o.) looks like now after being poisoned with a Novichok nerve agent, put in prison, and systematically denied adequate medical help. Heartbreaking to watch this extremely courageous man being slowly killed in jail.
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Putin 'has placed the head of the FSB's foreign intelligence branch under house arrest because he is furious at security services for failing to warn him' that Ukraine could fiercely resist invasion via @MailOnline
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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RIP Дмитрий Борисович Зимин! Один из первых современных российских меценатов. Современные наука и просвещение в России многим Вам обязаны!!!
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Maria Snegovaya
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Here is a friend's attempt to talk to her Russia-based father about the Bucha atrocities. Note how polar opposite her father's propaganda-driven vision of the world is! “I tried talking to my father about Bucha, where his family home, paralyzed sister and a brother still are. 1/
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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The diplomat, however, clarified to AFP that his personal opinion and it cannot be regarded as the official position of the Russian delegation.
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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Russia orders 174K diplomatic passports in suspected scam to allow Putin's top officials, spies and their spouses to bypass sanctions and infiltrate the West via @MailOnline
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
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will keep moving away from civilized world, stagnate and become more isolated in its aggressive confrontation against the West. Its nuclear status will prevent much change. Hence what is left is to ensure that RU state has as few resources as possible for external aggression.
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Maria Snegovaya
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Putin replaced 1,000 personal staff members in February over fears they would poison him, report says via @businessinsider
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Putin replaced 1,000 personal staff members in February over fears they would poison him, report...

A Daily Beast report said that those sacked included bodyguards, cooks, launderers, and secretaries.

www.businessinsider.com
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
Even Russian State TV Is Pleading With Putin to Stop the War via @thedailybeast
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Even Russian State TV Is Pleading With Putin to Stop the War

State propagandists called for Putin to end the “special military operation” before “frightening” sanctions destabilize his regime and risk civil war in Russia.

www.thedailybeast.com
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Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
NEXTA Live: ⚡️Прокурор Гаагского Международного уголовного суда начал расследование против должностных лиц Российской Федерации Теперь в Гааге усиленно займутся поиском и сбором доказательств против действий Путина и его окружения
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
96 Eastern Europe experts criticize Germany's short-sightedness on Russia and call for tougher sanctions. Read the open letter here
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
Having analyzed the composition and views of the Russian elites since the early 1990s & societal behavior, I am convinced that post-imperial revanchism of post-Soviet Russia was in some shape or form historically inevitable.
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
5 months
"Вино переходит в уксус, Мюнхгаузен - в Феофила" По поводу нашумевшего сериала "Предатели" (название, безусловно, отдельно впечатляет). Наконец, вернулась из турне по Европе, и посмотрела сей шедевр. Я как раз сейчас много изучаю 1990е и пишу на эту тему вторую книгу. 1) Часть
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
...why sanctions have failed to split the elites, and why many members of the power vertical comply with the dynamics of Russia's re-autocratization. Please message me in case of your interest - I am happy to send a copy! 6/6
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Long Soviet shadows: the nomenklatura ties of Putin elites

Recent studies of Putin-era elites have focused primarily on the role of siloviki. We bring the focus back to an analysis of the elite continuity within the Soviet regime. By compiling a dataset of...

www.tandfonline.com
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
Do Russians tell the truth when they say they support the war in Ukraine? "When asked directly, 68% of our respondents stated that they personally supported the war. However, when using the list experiment to, this share drops significantly, to 53%."
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Do Russians tell the truth when they say they support the war in Ukraine? Evidence from a list...

Survey evidence indicates a majority of Russian citizens support their country’s military action in Ukraine. But does this give an accurate picture of public opinion? Using an innovative list exper…

blogs.lse.ac.uk
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
Kyiv is attacked by missiles
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
9 months
Ukraine Has a Pathway to Victory. Why the new conventional wisdom that the war is a stalemate favoring Russia is wrong
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­­Ukraine Has a Pathway to Victory

Why the new conventional wisdom that the war is a stalemate favoring Russia is wrong.

foreignpolicy.com
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
Krasovsky just got fired from RT for his suggestions to "drown or burn Ukrainian children". Apparently that was too much even for RT.🤔
@JuliaDavisNews
Julia Davis
@JuliaDavisNews
2 years
Meanwhile on Russia's state-funded RT, director of broadcasting Anton Krasovsky suggests drowning or burning Ukrainian children, makes hideous comments about the rapes by Russian soldiers in Ukraine, says Ukraine should not exist and Ukrainians who resist Russia should be shot.
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
This is just so hard for me to digest: after Crimea annexation Europe kept increasing its dependence on Russian gas.
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
The European Union is set to offer its gas importers a solution to avoid a breach of sanctions when buying fuel from Russia and still effectively satisfy President Vladimir Putin’s demand for payment in rubles via @bpolitics
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
❗️США вводят санкции против Сбербанка и Газпромбанка — Минфин США 🇺🇦Украина Online
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
9 months
Теперь, когда с полок российских магазинов стала исчезать и курица, стало понятно, "что было сначала - курица или яйцо"?.. Сначала была война. (сс из разговора со знакомым)
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
Rather than transitioning from one system to another, it was a resolution of an intra-system crisis that eventually and logically led to the restoration of a system of authoritarian power. This helps understand why the Putin regime quickly reinstated many Soviet practices,... 5/
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
5 months
1922й год. В эмиграции белогвардейцы рассказывают друг другу, как во всех их бедах и поражениях виноваты либеральные реформы Александра Второго.
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
These findings have important policy implications for today's moment. In fact, Russia’s democratic transition in the early 1990s may be, to a large extent, described as a revolt of lower ranks of the Soviet nomenklatura against its older top ranks.4/
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
But bad scenarios are still possible,esp given that RU still controls Kherson and its port. Unclear whether UKR can take it back. This means that RU still has an opportunity to take Odesa in the future and completely destroy UKR economy. Under no circumstances should this happen.
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
Ukraine should be given all the support it needs, including offensive weapons, intelligence-sharing, and diplomatic support, to win this war—Putin’s threats of escalation notwithstanding.
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
5) For RU, what is happening also has catastrophic consequences similar to 1917 - another failed modernization attempt and a rollback to decades ago. Alas,the tiny civil society and its ability to resist turned out to be weaker than most pessimistic forecasts & was destroyed
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
Какой-то новый уровень ада. Вывезенных в "ЛДНР" детей планируют раздавать российским семьям - советник Зеленского
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Вывезенных в "ЛДНР" детей планируют раздавать российским семьям - советник Зеленского

Российские власти готовят изменения в законодательство, которые позволят россиянам усыновлять украинских детей по упрощенной процедуре.

www.unian.net
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
2 years
2) Western support for Ukraine is unprecedented for recent decades,and that's great. However,it is not enough for a radical change (i.e. radical victory for Ukraine, a return to at least Feb 23 borders). And no certainty that the West will be able to sustain it for years to come.
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 months
Observers are raising alarm about the health of our good friend and colleague @vkaramurza , who has been kept in jail by Putin for over two years now. The FSB had him poisoned twice before that. Recently his health has been deteriorating. Too many parallels with Alexey Navalny...
@echofm_online
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@echofm_online
3 months
«​​Путин убивает Владимира Кара-Мурзу, моего друга и сына моего друга. Он в тюремной больнице, адвокатов к нему вчера не пустили. Параллели с убийством Алексея Навального слишком очевидны» — писатель Виктор Шендерович. Читать:
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
Apparently, Russia tried EXACTLY what BL is doing to Poland back in 2016, shipping migrants to its border with Finland. "That ended only when Helsinki agreed to end a freeze on bilateral relations with Russia imposed after its attack on Ukraine."
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
NEXTA Live: Сенат США единогласно признаёт Путина военным преступником Принятая резолюция призывает провести расследование в отношении Путина, СовБеза РФ и военачальников по совершённым военным преступлениям и призывает суд в Гааге и другие страны провести расследование.
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@MSnegovaya
Maria Snegovaya
@MSnegovaya
3 years
Sergey Shoigu, where are you? Amid war against Ukraine, Russia’s defense minister hasn’t been seen in public for 12 days
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