I help you understand Syria's political economy, Ph.D.
Independent consultant
Senior Fellow
@NewlinesInst
Co-founder
@oopensyr
Coffee and mate enthusiast!
In this policy brief at
@BrookingsFP
,
@SHeydemann
and I expose Assad's emerging network of business fronts.
Assad no longer wants complex and uncertain relations with cronies. He wants to be himself Syria's leading businessperson, and it's working.
Twelve years on, my family that used to live in Aleppo now lives in six countries, our house was barrel bombed, and I can't return to see the bits of my country left standing.
Yet I don't feel I regret shouting, "long live Syria and down with Bashar al-Assad" in March 2011.
See these aid planes that landed in Damascus following the earthquake?
None of them applied for sanctions exemptions: simple load-fly-unload operations.
Regime-held Syria doesn't receive a fraction of the aid to Turkey, not because of sanctions, but because Assad is a thief.
Let the world remember that the UN airdropped supplies over 100 times on besieged and regime-held Der Ezzor in 2016 alone.
But didn't send any aid to the millions trapped in opposition-held Syria in the first and most critical 72 hours following the earthquake.
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Syria's conflict is so frozen, it's become an ideal playground for global and regional powers to settle their scores
In one week: Russia shelled northwest Syria, Turkey bombed the northeast, Jordan bombed the south, and Israel bombed the north.
Us? Syrians? Who gives a shit!
Our new investigation: Syria's third telecom operator is majority-owned by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps through a Malaysian front company.
Our
@oopensyr
-
@OCCRP
investigation was covered by
@derspiegel
(German),
@lemondefr
(French),
@enabbaladi
(Arabic), among others.
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BREAKING: The US Treasury issues a six-month sanctions exemption for all transactions related to responding to the earthquake in Syria.
This is a step in the right direction.
I've long argued that targeting the banking sector is ineffective and unethical.
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My interview at
@BBCWorld
a couple of minutes ago.
I argue that the main reason Syria received virtually no aid even 72 hours after the earthquake is the lack of interest among all actors in the lives of Syrians: that "all humans are equal" is a myth.
Do you recognize the second guy from the left? That's Nouh Zeiter, Lebanon's most notorious and wanted drug lord.
To his left is Bashar al-Assad's cousin, Wassim. To his right is Muhamamd Zaroor, a security officer in the Fourth Division, headed by Bashar's brother, Maher.
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Fascinating work by Annsar Shahhoud and
@ugur_umit_ungor
on the Tadamun massacre by al-Assad's men in Military Intelligence Branch 227.
The type of stuff you read word-for-word.
Syrian sculptor Fadel Alkhudr has just completed a very precise wooden replica of the famous Cologne Cathedral.
This impressive piece is the result of 5,000 hours of work over 3 and a half years!
Fadel left
#Aleppo
and has been living in Germany since 2015.
Believe it or not, the regime of Bashar al-Assad receives far more funding from the EU and the US than from, the Russian ally, thanks to the diversion of humanitarian aid.
In Turkey, a local recycler wrote on his cart, "I am not Syrian."
The hostility is so severe it's affecting even Syrian-looking locals.
He stated, "people's attitudes towards me improved after writing this."
#SyrianRefugees
#HumanRights
#StandTogether
Breaking:
@rayajalabi
reveals in her article today for
@FT
that the daughter of Syria's security chief, Husam Louka, has been hired by the UN in Damascus. The UN maintain that all their hiring is done according to "rigorous recruitment processes."
The UN is clearly not considering using another crossing to provide aid to the rebel-held enclave in northwest Syria.
@antonioguterres
, this moment will haunt you even after the end of your term. Think Boutros Boutros-Ghali and the Rwandan genocide.
Here's what I'm gathering from multiple sources. It looks like a UN-brokered deal has been struck between Western donor states and the Assad regime to deliver aid to those affected by the recent earthquake:
Thread: 1/4
The groaning of the thousands trapped under the rubble has ceased over the past few hours.
Why didn't the UN drop aid? Because they need permission from Damascus: the same Damascus that has been bombing them day and night.
What a world!
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Who among those hit by the Turkey-Syria earthquake were most vulnerable?
Hands down, the four million civilians besieged, bombed, and starved for years in northwest Syria.
And who has received the least amount of aid so far?
Hands down, the four million civilians besieged...
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To my mind, this is one of the scariest graphs of the impacts of the
#Syrian
conflict!
Young males, who were far more likely to be arrested or conscripted have fled the country at a faster pace, leaving behind a deformed age pyramid and a massive gender imbalance.
1) Google Trends shows that Western countries are becoming increasingly disinterested in
#Syria
.
Be it searching for the word in English, French, or German, or be it on the news, Google, or YouTube, interest in Syria now is even lower than it was prior to the peaceful uprising.
Never follow this Syria "analyst" if you're interested in the truth.
However, he provides a very good free service: ensuring none of the people you're following have gone crazy (in just one click).
If you want to fill the streets of Lebanon with xenophobic billboards calling for the expulsion of Syrians, might I propose selecting an image that conveys less innocence?
While you're at it, try to pick someone who's not a child and does not actually live in Idlib.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Assad regime crumbled all of a sudden. I've never seen it more vulnerable, more rotten on the inside.
Unprecedented dissatisfaction among the remaining support base and near-total absence of public services.
While the Syrian regime's pro-Palestine propaganda blares ever louder, guess where Bashar al-Assad's elite Fourth Armed Division is?
Not defending Palestine, but ransacking the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees in Damascus.
In a rare archaeological discovery during the Syrian conflict, a fascinating mosaic panel from the Roman era was unearthed today in Rastan, Homs, according to the General Directorate of Antiquities and Museums.
In this infuriating video, a staff member of the Emirati Red Crescent preaches to Syrians to "support their enlightened and blessed leadership."
Talk about aid politicization.
Gassing your own people and torturing tens of thousands of them to death notwithstanding, what is it
Life is turning into hell for
#Syrians
in
#Turkey
I had to double-check, because, at a first glance, the draconian measures that the Turkish Minister of Interior, Süleyman Soylu, announced two days ago at the Migration Board Meeting in Ankara sounded too extreme to be true.
NEW PUBLICATION:
Over the past year, I led a team of researchers at
@oopensyr
to study the ensuing narcotics crisis in the Middle East and the role of the Assad regime.
The report benefitted from discussions in London, Istanbul, Geneva, Oxford, and Washington DC.
Key findings:
Is it really OK for the son of Ghassan Khalil to work as an Information Management associate for UNHCR in Syria?
The father held high-ranking positions in Assad's killing machine, such as the Deputy Director of the General Intelligence Directorate. He's also sanctioned by the
Thanks to Bashar al-Assad and other secondary factors, we're now the 4th largest diaspora in the world in relative terms!
Eight million Syrians now live abroad! We'll be back.
In light of the earthquake, cross-line aid from regime to rebel-held areas in Syria must change temporarily from something we fight against to something we fight for.
Aid cannot get in from Turkey due to the damage to infrastructure.
The upcoming hours are critical. 1/2
Putin enjoys belittling Assad at every turn. This time, President Assad wasn't greeted in Moscow by President Putin, not by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, but by the Deputy Foreign Minister.
The other photos from earlier diplomatic engagements are self-explanatory.
A border guard stopped a dog running from Lebanon to Syria... Where are you going?
The dog: I'm starving in Lebanon!
Days later, the guard saw the same dog running back to Lebanon... What happened?
The dog: there's no food here either, but at least in Lebanon they let us bark!
I wish I could hug those who invested emotionally and mentally over the past 12 years in helping Syrians lead dignified and prosperous lives without the criminal Assad regime. I see our cause dying before our eyes—such depressing times!
In a huge effort, analyzing hundreds of videos,
@SJAC_info
documented a whopping 58 "double tap" airstrikes in Syria since 2013.
In all of them, Assad's regime or Russia hit the same location at least once more within one hour from the initial attack with civilians present.
OFAC sanctioned today Amjad Abbas, the person who executed the Tadamon Massacre in 2013. The impact of such sanctions on the regime at this point is virtually nonexistent--an act of virtue signaling more than anything else.
On the other hand, sanctioning, say, an Emirati or a
Over the past two days,
@OCCRP
and
@BBCWorld
released new investigations into the captagon industry. Their work which was in the making for a year has also helped us
@oopensyr
.
With additional quality evidence, they reaffirm that Bashar al-Assad and his regime are behind much of
The people of Suweida have been protesting for six months.
Six months of peaceful protests.
Six months of hope that there will be an impact on the Assad regime. Hope that domestic, regional, or international support will eventually arrive.
للمرة الأولى، النص الكامل لاتفاقية استخدام مرفأ طرطوس العسكري بين روسيا والحكومة السورية التي تم توقيعها في عام 2017.
الاتفاقية باللغة الروسية وقد ساعدني على ترجمة أهم بنودها مشكورًا الدكتور محمود الحمزة.
And five months later...
Today we release our
@oopensyr
-
@SyrianLDP
report on how private Syrian companies involved in human rights abuses benefit from the UN’s procurements from the country.
The report was supported by
@FESonline
and
@EEDemocracy
.
1/13
SNHR received a video filmed on Dec1, showing children chasing a tractor taking waste to a landfill amid IDPs camps in Idlib to scavenge for food.SNHR affirms at least 1.5 million of the displaced in NW
#Syria
are children, who are the worst affected group
This makes no sense!
The safer regime-held Syria becomes, the more the UN pays private security companies.
These companies, as our future research shows, have strong ties to the Mukhabarat, the Assad family, and many of their owners are sanctioned.
Breaking: The Wall Street Journal:
- Iran will no longer send oil to Syria on credit
- The price will double to $70 (~market prices)
- The next ship won't leave Iran until early March
PS. Syria received nearly 90k bpd in the last three months of 2022 (which was far from enough)
I scoured the web in search of photos showing how the 5k tonnes of bilateral earthquake relief aid sent from 25 countries to regime-held Syria is being distributed.
I found only two measly photos.
Where's all the aid?
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Above our haft seen this year is a gift from me, a Syrian Arab, to my Iranian wife.
May we all be free one day, Arabs, Persians, and Kurds!
سال نو مبارک
Newroz Pîroz Be
Hypocrisy in action.
While the Assad regime shouts about the small impact of sanctions on the humanitarian response, never does it mention that the vast majority of humanitarian aid comes from the same countries imposing those sanctions.
Not Russia! Not Iran! The criminal West.
THREAD: Pope Francis met with the head of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC), Khaled Hboubati, today and presented him with “valuable medals.”
Unless Hboubati was there to confess his sins, this is outrageous. The medals should be returned and here's why:
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No more free lunches for Assad from Tehran
Until a couple of years ago, one could safely claim that Iran footed much of the bill for supporting Assad throughout the Syrian conflict while Russia reaped more economic benefits; think the Port of Tartus, Khneifis phosphate fields,
1/
How the lack of transparency at the UN relates corruption
A shocking AP investigation showed that the WHO handed golden coins and cars to Assad regime officials.
In the UN's procurement database, the identity of some suppliers is suppressed for privacy or security.
Sample⬇️
This is how powerful drug gangs have become in al-Assad’s narco-state.
According to Nedaa Post, the recent arrest of two drug gang members in rural Homs prompted the gang to attack a police station in Talbiseh, handcuff and beat the officers inside, and cut off the Homs-Hama
This photo reportedly shows families of detainees in al-Assad's dungeons gathering around a recently freed man asking him whether he saw their loved ones.
In Syria, it's a luxury, and families of prisoners pay hefty sums, to know one thing: is he alive?
THREAD on Syria's new cybercrime law which is now in force
According to Article 29, I can face up to 15 years in prison for my online tool for the exchange rates of the Syrian pound on the black market. 1/6
What a regime! New evidence presented by
@SyriaDirect
shows that a company owned by Maher al-Assad's front Mohammad Hamsho and the Fourth Armed Division, headed by Maher, have together been knocking down perfectly safe buildings in Hajar al-Aswad to extract scrap metals. The
Excited to announce joining the New Lines Institute on a part-time basis, where I'll focus on illicit narcotic flows and networks in the Middle East.
I’ve been following
@NewlinesInst
since its launch in 2019 and have been impressed by the quality and relevance of its output.
This brave young man from
#Sweida
was arrested for participating in protests against the
#Assad
regime.
In response, people from his city took an officer hostage to exchange with him.
As soon as he was set free, he joined another protest.
Watch the reception!
How a drug kingpin is running Flights from Damascus to the rest of the world with the Help of a Greek company:
Our latest report, with coverage from SyriaTV, Der Spiegel, Enab Baladi, Souria Net, Al-Jumhuria, among others.
The publication marks the beginning of a series of
Most people don't appreciate the enormity of Iran's economic aid to the Assad regime since the 2011 uprising.
Using World Bank figures, $50 billion can eliminate poverty in Iran for nearly one year (312 days) under the extreme assumption that the 23 million impoverished Iranians
Six years on, never will I forgive the indiscriminate bombing, siege, and forced displacement of my beloved Aleppo.
Not out of spite, but because I don't want to see it happen to a human again.
It's official. :) My consulting company on Syria's political economy is now incorporated.
Although almost everything that relates to Syria since the uprising has been disappointing, I'm confident this will be different.
We have only ourselves to fix our country.
It must be clear by now that the cross-border spillovers of the Syrian conflict affect the country's destiny far more than what happens within its borders.
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I'm not defending Syria's admittedly incompetent opposition, but the claim that they are disunited, and therefore can't be worked with, is disingenuous.
Each "friend of Syria" held onto one limb and pulled selfishly in a different direction; of course, they're disunited!
The fate of Prigozhin's interests in Syria's oil and gas sector is now up in the air.
The blocks he's involved in are highlighted in this map, which we shared with the WSJ for their timely documentary on Wagner.
Thread:
Scary news on the drought in
#Syria
.
According to the Minister of Agriculture:
- This year's drought will be the worst since 1953
- All regions affected
- The water level in dams is 52%
- 700k out of 800k hectares of rain-fed wheat will not produce anything this harvest
Another heartbreaking report from
@PAXforpeace
; this time on Syria's vanishing forests.
"In Latakia alone, there was a 31 percent loss in tree cover in the period 2001-2021. In Hama, the loss was 34 percent."
Deforestation in IDP and Kurdish areas in
How Western governments subsidize the Assad regime
Syria's Minister of Oil and Mineral Resources said a liter of Octane-90 petrol costs the government 12,100 Syrian pounds (89 USD cents).
Yet, it's sold to the UN, funded almost single-handily by Western Governments opposed to
Hamas lost the last shred of respect in the eyes of free Syrians after restoring ties with Assad.
The number of Palestinians killed by the occupation state of Israel since Hamas was established (1987) is nearly 7% of the number of Syrian civilians killed by Assad since 2011.
Good luck working with Assad.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE reopened their embassies in Damascus, pushed for readmitting Syria to the Arab League, and are working towards improving their economic ties with Damascus.
In exchange, Bashar al-Assad is not willing to even arrest his
Those trying to work with the cartel to fight the cartel will be utterly disappointed.
A documentary from Arab News, a semi-official Saudi newspaper, published today says
“But in May 2023, Syria was reinstated as a full member of the Arab League… The decision quickly began to
FINALLY!
Those of you who know me also know how hard I've been pushing publicly and privately for the Central Bank of Syria to provide a fair exchange rate for the money transferred by the UN. Hundreds of millions have been lost in the exchange over the past four years.
1/2
Turkey has just finished its concrete wall with Syria, while Iraq started the second phase of its wall.
There's no solution on the horizon for Syrians. Box them in for now.
My new piece for
@MiddleEastInst
Assad Won't budge and here's why
Expecting Assad to change his behaviour under the current settings is like expecting a rock in the middle of a road to move by nudging it.
If you're an Arab from outside al-Hasakeh, you're required to have a residence permit.
Over 70 have already reportedly been deported to Aleppo.
This comes only a week after Amnesty International's landmark report on SDF's grave human rights violations.
With the US watching!
In this interview, I argue that China's lack of investment in Syria is not due to sanctions but the country's uncertain outlook. China invested in heavily sanctioned Zimbabwe under Mugabe and Sudan under Bashir when the outlook seemed certain.
I also try to answer:
-Who's behind
As the Assad Regime Struggles, it's Diverting Humanitarian Aid at a Record Pace
Haram money exchange has just told me they can transfer USD 1,000 from the US to Damascus at an exchange rate of 15,600 pounds per USD.
On the other hand, if you're a Western government trying to
Last week,
@CarolineRose8
and I published this report, documenting the Assad regime's narrative and policies on narcotics.
The report analyzed 612 articles from SANA (2015-2022), official statements, UNODC submissions, and gazette announcements.
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Meet Luna Habibi-Shaar, who was born on the 26th of May, the night of the "Blood Supermoon" Lunar eclipse which last happened in New Zealand in 1982.
Hanna and Luna are healthy and happy :)
And I can't be more thankful.
You might think there isn't much data on Syria following the conflict. Talk to the right people, and you'll find an extraordinary wealth of data that organizations refuse to share with the public.
What a shame. Data sharing is a social responsibility.
In short, the Syrian economy hasn't been this fragile since WWI. It's on the verge of collapse with no solutions in sight without a multi-billion dollar cash injection.
It's, above all, up to Iran what happens next.
The recent $6b hostage deal will make it easier to step in.
The Syrian monastery culture and its influence on early Christianity in Europe:
In a brilliant essay for
@newlinesmag
,
@dianadarke
tells the story of those forgotten monasteries in the region known as "the Dead Cities" in Idlib.
If you think Assad is not cracking down on captagon, think again! Yesterday, the regime seized ONE PILL.
The day before, Saudi Arabia announced the seizure of 852,000 pills at the border with Jordan originating from...
Since the start of the conflict in 2011, the Syrian pound has lost nearly 98% of its value against the USD.
Here we present a timeline of the key events—potentially—affecting it.
The events shown here should not be given a causal interpretation.
Breaking
An order issued by the Syrian military on 1 April 2024 directs all military units to block the delivery of food and medical supplies to the Rukban refugee camp.
The document leaked by
@zyadalfares
for al-Quds al-Araby. Due to its recency (post-Nov 2023), the directive
I've never enjoyed a project more than writing this book with
@SHeydemann
and
@waelalwani
.
The book will cover various aspects of Syria's political economy over the period 2000-2023, with a focus on the evolution of business networks.
A photo from my workstation at 6 am :)
I'll bet you don't need to see the border to know where Syria ends and Turkey begins: The Turkish side is lush, and the Syrian side is dry.
Water mismanagement and Turkey's restrictions on water flow are the main reasons behind the drought in Syria, not natural/cyclical factors.
2/2
What more do you need to believe that Bashar al-Assad is the head of the cartel?
He knows that everyone knows, so covering it up seems like a waste of time.
It's true the world stood watching our loved ones groaning to death under the rubble for days, but the shouting and pleading of many non-Syrians with us like
@Charles_Lister
,
@Tessa_Fox
,
@ejbeals
,
@NatashaHallDC
, and
@dkhalifa
is my only consolation.
Thank you!
We're promised big news this morning from
@syrianetf
.
Remember,
@syrianetf
revealed the Caesar photos and the gravedigger. I'm definitely looking forward to hearing what they'll announce.
Eleven years ago, the people of my city, Aleppo, woke up to discover over 100 dead men and boys, each with gunshot wounds to the head, washed up on the banks of the Queiq River.
Some bodies were continually retrieved from the water until March 2013, amid fears of a sniper
Studying local actors in the Syrian conflict can make your head spin: most allegiances are driven above all by outright interest (little ideology).
Mudallal al-Aziz, a former al-Nusra leader, turned into an Assad ally, became an MP, then worked with Iran in spreading Shia Islam