John Culver Profile
John Culver

@JohnCulver689

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Fmr National Intelligence Officer for East Asia, retired CIA analyst. Atlantic Council Senior Fellow. Views solely my own. Like/retweets are not an endorsement.

Washington, DC
Joined October 2012
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@jeremymbarr @yashar The virus started in bats so maybe it's just going home.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
18 days
@travisakers @HC_Richardson He's the sitting NC Lt Gov. They've known and supported him any way.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
5 months
@jmart @HC_Richardson WTAF?! "The Post decided not to report on the episode at the time because the flag-raising appeared to be the work of Martha-Ann Alito, rather than the justice, and connected to a dispute with her neighbors, a Post spokeswoman said. It was not clear then that the argument was
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
As Beijing watched Prigozhin's private army move toward Moscow, one thought that may have entered Xi Jinping's head: "I was correct to jail Generals Xu Caihou and Guo boxiong and purge disloyalty and corruption from the PLA." The PLA, the Party's Army, from 2004 to 2014... 1/7
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
China's determination to press on with zero COVID measures, refusal to import mRNA vaccines, expand ICU capacity, despite economic costs lead me to conclude... The CCP *likes* the control Zero policies give it, with Party members monitoring their neighborhoods, work units. (1/3)
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
If ever there was an opportunity to have discussions on strategic stability and test Beijing's determination to hew to Moscow at the risk of China's long-stated principles and future of its relations not only with the US but Europe, this would be it. 1/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 months
@acnewsitics Still holds up...
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
China's military exercises vs Taiwan set new precedents, but it's important to note what they have NOT done, at least yet. So far, based on TW & JP gov reporting, the PLA has not: -- violated 12NM sea/air around Taiwan -- Overflown the island with aircraft (more) 1/3
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
Amid credible press reports that Speaker Pelosi will travel to Taiwan in August--a trip planned for April that was postponed by her positive COVID-19 test--it might be useful to review the 1995-96 episode that marked the greatest Strait crisis since the late 1950s. 1/15
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
5 years
For any WH correspondent with big brass ones, at the next TF briefing: "I have a question on trade I'd like to direct at Dr. Fauci..."
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@emptywheel Pompeo was a grifter long before Trump...
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@TheRealHoarse Here's mine for this morning. Second loaf is baking.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
@Srirachachau And yet, 6 days after the 2nd bomb destroyed Hiroshima, Imperial Army officers tried to prevent Emperor Hirohito's surrender broadcast on 15 August, assaulting the Imperial palace searching for the recorded speech. The two recordings were in a stack of papers, and smuggled out of
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
Hu Jintao invoked the phrase circa 2009 when he launched his failed effort to undertake PLA restructuring.  The unstated second part of "be prepared to fight and win wars" is "because at present, the PLA is not and cannot."  Left out of the current discussion is consideration of
@ForeignAffairs
Foreign Affairs
2 years
“If Xi says he is readying for war, it would be foolish not to take him at his word.”
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
17 days
@JamesFallows Haberman is exactly the kind of petted access journalist Judith Miller was 20 years ago, but the NYT (and WaPo) are not the newspapers they were. They are losing their prime demographic and have learned that generating outrage drives engagement more than journalism.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
Thanks to @ForeignAffairs for publishing my thoughts on their recent article by Matt Pottinger and @JEPomfret on Xi Jinping's directives that the Chinese system should prepare for struggle. I share their concerns on risks or conflict, but see the
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
Taiwan deserves support but... it doesn't look good that its military declined by 2/3rds in manpower since 2010, relies on 4 month conscripts, no ready reserve, buys big-ticket weapons that would be irrelevant in a war, and spends only $17 billion/year on defense.
@gdp1985
Gerard DiPippo
2 years
This is a great thread. But we should describe TWN as *choosing* not to spend on defense, not as facing budgetary constraints. TWN's revenues and debts are low. TWN could easily afford to double (or triple) defense spending. Too many Western commentators give TWN a pass on this.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
This could be viewed as restraint on China's part, but also are escalation steps they've reserved to show even great threat/seriousness *next time*. These exercises likely have been an intelligence bonanza for all concerned, and a status check on PLA joint Ness, or lack of it.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
But the pandemic revived direct grassroots party control. And Xi likes it. It enables a "human touch" for the CCP in addition to the surveillance state, and incentivizes 94 million party members to be a much more visible face of control under the guise of prevention. (3/3)
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
11 months
@RepJerryCarl Via @HC_Richardson today... "Gas prices have dropped an average of $1.70 from their peak, airfares are down 13%, and car rental prices are down about 10% over the past year. According to the American Farm Bureau, the price of an average Thanksgiving dinner has dropped by 4.5%.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
@noahbarkin @niubi This is identical to Beijing’s 2014 stance on Crimea. Its own claims to TW and SCS, ECS rest on its sovereignty assertions being absolute. That's what "1 China Principle" means. But this doesn't mean BJ won't back RU assertions that "US-led encirclement" justifies action.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
Prior to the current Russian debacle, China’s 1979 invasion on Vietnam was considered the benchmark of poor execution--35,000 KIA in 3 wks of combat. But China's goal wasn't to seize and hold territory. It was to punish the VN invasion of Cambodia.
@Alex_agvg
Alex Velez-Green
3 years
Many will use Russia's failures in Ukraine to argue that the USA is overestimating the Chinese military threat. But China is a far more sophisticated adversary than Russia. We should plan for Beijing to learn from Moscow's errors, not repeat them.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
@Dimi I don't understand the "bad signal" of retiring a 1979 design with the rcs of a barn door, outsticked by PLAAF IR and radar-guided missiles, parked at an airfield well within range of virtually every Chinese ballistic/cruise missile, and rotating/dispersing F-22, F-35A.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
@KoriSchake Milley's and Biden's comments are the *least* partisan statements they could make with seeming cowed.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
Economic reform & opening and SOE reforms in the late 1990s brought rapid growth, but spelled the end of the Party's danwei or work unit system as the foundation of control over the population, esp in cities. They compensated with massive security forces expansion... (2/3)
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
Wish they'd asked Pottinger about CJCS Gen Milley having to call his Chinese counterpart twice to assure him the US wasn't going to attack to keep Trump in power.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
--Otherwise compelled TW to consider shooting first. -- Mobilized Coast Guard or Maritime Militia, which would be key for actual blockade. -- Marshaled major amphibious lift, including RO/ROs PLA did multiple ops over Strait centerline, but all seem north & south, not in center.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
Sen. Mike Lee says bluntly that he doesn't believe in democracy. Heather Cox Richardson today did this excellent dive into Lee's view, which has deep American roots. It was the view of slavers.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
@SimonWDC @juliettekayyem Let's not overlook the Pentagon coup gang installed without Senate confirmation right after Biden won--Miller, Cohen-Watnik, Patel, Tata, Flynn's brother, and Sec of the Army McCarthy. DHS as deserves scrutiny.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
@BeschlossDC "Bragg is generally considered among the worst generals of the Civil War. Most of the battles he engaged in ended in defeat. Bragg was extremely unpopular with both the officers and ordinary men under his command..." -Wikipedia
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
Highly recommended, by Chris Johnson, just in time for anticipation of the 20th Party Congress. Not one but two essential deep-dives. The 1st on Xi's consolidation of power
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
@noahbarkin @niubi Don't overlook the rest of his statement, "The Minsk Agreement is the only way out in resolving the Ukraine issue, and it should not be a frontline for rivalry among major powers."
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@TomBossert Senior officials need to ask themselves: "What will the first sentence of my obituary say?" "When my kids/grandkids google me, what will be at the top of the results?"
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
Debate China policy, defense policy, economics all you like. If the United States isn't competently led and governed consistent with its values, nothing else will matter.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
5 months
@gdp1985 As someone who prepared estimates of PLA spending for 30 years, and also contributed to Soviet defense $ estimates as a contractor.... If the customer (USG, Congress) wants the biggest possible number, you can apply sketchy PPP magic, or do cost replacement, which is what was
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
5 months
@SamRoggeveen @gdp1985 But if you applied AEI's PPP adjustment to China’s GDP it would be $77 trillion and we'd all be screwed. Whether China’s breaking a sweat financially over PLA outlays depends on their overall economic and government balance sheets. Since these comparisons are always vs. the
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
@RickPetree McConnell has a very clear view of how to wield power. It is without restraint, to move the country as far as possible to the right, correctly calculating that when the Dems are in power, they will fail to undo that rightward movement and when the GOP returns, it will resume.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
I'm not saying that Pelosi's visit will start a war. But policymakers should understand that the potential for a 1995-96 scale crisis is today at the optimistic end of the spectrum. Especially if Beijing concludes that not responding strongly just invites worse, sooner.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
There's a persistent tendency in the US, including some policy officials and seemingly every pundit, to portray the CCP as hollow bullies. We recite selective narrations of 1995-96, the 79 invasion of Vietnam, economic retaliation vs. ROK, Philippines, Norway, etc. 1/3
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
If this moment passes and China ties its future to Putin, its future and the world’s become even more dire. /end
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
Congrats, China. President-elect Biden's first China issue will be your economic pressure and media attacks on a key US ally. Own-goal, well played.
@jakejsullivan
Jake Sullivan
4 years
The Australian people have made great sacrifices to protect freedom and democracy around the world. As we have for a century, America will stand shoulder to shoulder with our ally Australia and rally fellow democracies to advance our shared security, prosperity, and values.
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John Culver
2 years
How the hell does ProPublica promote a GOP minority report issued on election eve, and rely on a source who worked on the report? The actual investigative journalism here is what Chinese language experts and virogists did to the story in a few hours--blow it to pieces.
@propublica
ProPublica
2 years
The Wuhan lab at the center of suspicions about the pandemic’s onset was far more troubled than known, documents unearthed by a Senate team reveal. Tracing the evidence, @VanityFair & @ProPublica give the clearest view yet of a biocomplex in crisis.
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John Culver
2 years
Most I've seen in one day, and most in TW's ADIZ, all along the median line.
@MoNDefense
國防部 Ministry of National Defense, ROC(Taiwan) 🇹🇼
2 years
71 PLA aircraft and 7 PLAN vessels around Taiwan were detected in our surrounding region by 6 a.m.(UTC+8) today. R.O.C. Armed Forces have monitored the situation and tasked CAP aircraft, Navy vessels, and land-based missile systems to respond these activities.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@propublica @AlecMacGillis The field of signs from 2016 looks like a cemetery now. Context is everything.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
The Trump administration is enabling the CCP to succeed in this narrative shift beyond its wildest dreams. Competent pandemic policy IS economic policy, foreign policy, and China policy. To fail at the primary crisis is to fail at the others.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
China understood by February that in terms of narrative vs the US, it had to "go big or go home." Its early stumbles meant it risked being blamed for millions of deaths, economic losses,and potential regional & global political instability. 1/3
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
Should Beijing allow itself to be part of a bloc with Moscow, China hawks in Congress and the pundit sphere will steer our wrath toward China, even more than Russia, which has many friends on the US right. 6/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
@hannahmsays Boaty McWeinerface.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
Russian annexation of portions of Ukraine, or invasion and seizure of Kiev, violate China's position that sovereignty is sacrosanct. This would not be "teaching of lessons" like China's invasions then withdrawals from India or Vietnam. 2/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
... especially the need to move/replace general officers frequently and never again allow independent power bases to emerge in the PLA. 7/7
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
If China goes to war, it will not make Russia’s mistakes. It will learn from Ukraine's resistance as well. It will not make optimistic assumptions. Its military campaign will be integrated with political, economic, information, and it will assume the US will intervene.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
Wednesday, 3 June, marks the 31st anniversary of China's Tiananmen Square massacre. President Trump's threat to employ active-duty US armed forces against the citizens of the United States gives China's anniversary a dark resonance for the US. 1/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 month
@jenmercieca @SykesCharlie Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV. Sheer poetry.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
@HC_Richardson @LindseyGrahamSC Take a victory lap, Lindsey...
@LindseyGrahamSC
Lindsey Graham
8 years
If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.
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John Culver
1 year
@KevinMKruse 1,021 GOP pedophiles, rapists, etc., just between 2018 and March 2023. The accusations are always confessions.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@davenewworld_2 I have very-anti-trump friends who were down there to observe, who wore trumpy hats to avoid being beat up. don't assume that someone in a new maga/trump hat is a trumper.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
... "we don't know. It probably would depend on the circumstances." For the Party's Army, this is the wrong answer. Under Xi, Party control over the PLA--and the PAP, China's large antiriot force--has been greatly tightened. And lessons forgotten after 1989 were recalled... 6/7
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
Great power competition with China would seem to require a functioning US government where the Congress can't be taken over by insurrectionists directed by the President of the United States.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
... was effectively a self-run entity. The top command put in place by Jiang Zemin since 1999 continued his influence despite Hu Jintao assuming the Presidency and Party General Secretary in 2002, and CMC Chair in 2004. Xu and Guo stayed in place... 2/7
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John Culver
3 years
We should allow no linkage between Ukraine and Taiwan, but underscore what US political climate would be like in the event China shields Russia economically. 5/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
"If the 1989 Tiananmen Square crisis happened here today, would the PLA again save the Party? Or would the Army--as the Egyptian military did--put its interests above it loyalty to the revolution?" Looking at the corrupt military of that period, they likely concluded... 5/7
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
Beijing’s current diplomatic wafflings signal they haven’t yet decided how to square this circle. The US could ask China to imagine the world and Europe in the months and a few years hence. Global sanctions isolate Russia, disrupt energy markets, target Russian elites. 3/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@johnismay @Tmgneff @EricSchmittNYT @helenecooper We are going to need the peacetime equivalent of war crimes tribunals.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 months
@BeschlossDC Trump told them they were in NC so they thought they had to leave early for the long drive back to PA.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
7 months
@madrid_mike @john_sipher Not until after the nominating conventions this summer, by past practice. There's nothing in law that says briefings must happen for the nominee, but there's never been a situation like this. Biden probably could deny them given Trump's upcoming documents trial.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
Waiting for George W. Bush to say something, along with every other surviving former President and former GOP Presidential candidate. This is nut up or be gone time. You either oppose Trump's call for a coup, or you can't claim to love the Constitution or this country.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
The 🇷🇺 + 🇨🇳 combined naval transit near the 🇺🇸 Aleutian islands (but outside US territorial waters) is being hyped as "provocative" or even "aggressive." It's notable mostly because the 2 navies operated together. They have done joint naval exercises for many years each summer,
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
As Xi rose in the CCP to be the designated heir by 2010, the Party leadership watched in terror as the "Arab Spring" briefly swept autocrats from power, backed by the US/West. The lords of Zhongnanhai may have asked themselves.... 4/7
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@SteveSchmidtSES @JoeBiden @realDonaldTrump "Pro tip: Real billionaires don't have to personally guarantee loans. They have *assets* not already encumbered as collateral." -- @DavidCayJ
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
... as the two top uniformed officers for more than a decade. Another Jiang underling ran the GPD cadre bureau, effectively controlling all promotions--and the patronage and bribery required to rise in rank/position. 3/7
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@MollyJongFast Odds that Pope Francis will instruct US Bishops to follow local/state guidelines on pandemic and allowed crowd sizes? He could override the USSC's horrible decision at least with respect to US Catholics with the stroke of a pen.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
@KevinMKruse Not shopping at target...
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
Seems that NatSec Twitter strongly opposes a NATO no-fly zone as an act of war that risks nuclear escalation. But some of the same experts seem to assume that US military intervention in a Taiwan conflict would not carry the same risk. 1/3
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@kylegriffin1 This is sedition and it should be prosecuted as such. Miller is disloyal, and has violated his oath to uphold the constitution. He has gone from irrelevance to infamy.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
Fragile supply chains further break. The US could argue the China should not let itself be dragged into the wrong side of this mess because of Russian imperialism and clumsy aggression. 4/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@TheRealHoarse @LindseyGrahamSC @realDonaldTrump Don't know the judge, but I keep thinking of a Stepford wife engineered by the Federalist Society, incubated in a conservative law school for 20 years, so little judicial record, and unveiled precisely timed to fill RBG's seat. Clarence Thomas with lady parts.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
Former Defense Intelligence Officer Lonnie Henley provides astute analysis and reality check for US military capabilities to counter the more likely, and dangerous scenario for Taiwan & the US: Blockade. He's not on twitter but authorized me to share.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
Beijing can stand by its stated principles, enforce sanctions on RU, stabilize supply chains, and build a foundation for US relations. The two sides could ease their trade war to reinforce global stability during the greatest crisis since the end of the Cold War. 7/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@Chellaney Taiwan's not that small and it punches above its weight in economic and freedom. Taiwan is larger than Maryland and nine other US states. It's population is roughly the same as Australia or North Korea. Its GDP is larger than 45 US states in PPP terms.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
@LarryPfeifferDC @john_sipher @WSJ We know the gifts didn't show up on his public disclosure forms (neither did Ginny's $600k from "anonymous sources"). Did they report this income on their IRS 1040?
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John Culver
2 years
And so the 4th Taiwan Strait Crisis begins. Perhaps the biggest difference, since at least 1958, is we don't know how/when it ends. The last 95-96 one was demarcated to end after Taiwan's elections--the next won't occur until January 2024.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 months
@DougJBalloon I almost wish I still subscribed to NYT so I could cancel over this shit.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 months
@C_C_Krebs Chris, thanks for your excellent work protecting our elections. Hopefully the Trump campaign will report this to the FBI.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
China followed Moscow into the Korean War, helping to ensure Taiwan's physical separation for the next 70+ years. It should not let the Russian tail wag the Chinese dog again, perhaps setting a course to war with the US and Taiwan's permanent separation, and destruction. 9/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
@TomBossert @nytimes You make the key point that seems to be eluding media coverage of this: the attacks are ongoing. The Russians are contesting control of USG networks and it's not clear they can be dislodged. We have to assume that all the networks are compromised.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 month
@davidfolkenflik @PekingMike @bkesling Three family members are buried at Arlington. My parents are buried at the military cemetery in San Antonio. Trump's desecration should enrage every military family. The press has zero understanding of what he has done.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
@DougJBalloon @CherylRofer Obviously. Canadian smoke would smell like maple syrup or burnt poutine, while this smoke has the distinctive tang of Sha Cha beef.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
6 months
@BeijingPalmer All true, but the denialists have a very modern museum in Tokyo backing their historical narrative while the anti-militarist Peace Museums have lost funding or are removing content about Japan's militarism and aggression.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
23 days
@NYinLA2121 The ABC affiliate in Washington DC, WJLA, is owned by Sinclair Broadcasting, a right-wing media conglomerate. So sure, pull their license.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
The "democracies vs. authoritarians" framing drives Ch & Ru together, but Putin's actions should provide an opportunity to separate them, as it did during the Cold War. 10/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
This opportunity to relax great power competition (solely for its own sake) will be fleeting. But US and Western/global interests are better served by China making the distinction between Putin's recklessness and China's strategic interests. 13/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
In that light, Speaker Pelosi's planned visit to Taiwan next month is being met with serious--if vague--warnings from Beijing. It probably does not rise to the level of Lee's 95 US visit, and isn't unprecedented, but the circumstances of the US-China relationship are worse. 12/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
4 years
this is a conspiracy involving the president and his administration to commit sedition and treason.
@Acosta
Jim Acosta
4 years
A source close to the White House who is in touch with some of the rioters at the Capitol said it's the goal of those involved to stay inside the Capitol through the night.
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John Culver
2 years
Moreover, Xi Jinping is laser focused on beginning his ground-breaking 3rd term as paramount leader this Fall, so the stakes for looking weak vs. Taiwan & the US are high. It's reminiscent of 2012 Senkakus crisis on the eve of the 18th PC that installed Xi for his 1st term. 13/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
The real Davidson window isn't about the PLA or Xi's plans. It's about 20 years of wasted treasure in Iraq, Afg, and lack of investment in capabilities relevant to Asia. For any war with China before circa 2035, we are fighting with the military we have, not the one we need.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
A cardinal rule regarding information, claims, sources during a crisis, esp. conflict: be especially skeptical and careful about those reports that you want to be true.
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
1 year
@ElbridgeColby @joshrogin Taiwan's fabs will make nothing once a war starts, even if no one bombs them. No country is independent of the global semi infrastructure for technicians, chemicals, wafers, lithography and the thousands of people required to maintain production every day. Bombing our friends
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
10 days
@emptywheel He's been spouting this since the 90s, when the target was Japan. Sometimes he still slips and says Japan when he means "JINA!" Then he surrounds himself with grifters like Lighthizer and Navarro. He doesn't understand why the US would ever import manufactured goods, or why
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
3 years
The prospects for China to achieve its “great rejuvenation” are far better through fundamental adherence to its stated principles, with the RBIO, than without it. 8/
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@JohnCulver689
John Culver
2 years
Essential destruction of myths many Westerners have about China. Great service by @RnaudBertrand !
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