Germany has decided to stop using the coronavirus infection rate as its yardstick for deciding if restrictions should be in force... government will instead monitor hospitalisations as a key indicator for whether the health system is becoming overburdened.
When China behaves in ways that arouse fear or suspicion among other nations, we should remain open to the possibility that China *does* understand how damaging such behaviour is to its reputation, but that its leaders have concluded it is worth it.
I think we might be overstating the risk that NATO military involvement in the Ukraine War leads to Russian escalation and understating the risk that sanctions lead to escalation.
What all this illustrates is that Australia's single biggest defence asset is distance. We are hard to attack because we are far away. Yet our defence strategy, particularly the AUKUS subs, is now geared to compressing that distance when we should be exploiting it.
“Right wing authoritarian populists…are democracy’s greatest threat”. Disagree. The greatest threat is the yawning chasm between the political class and the public. RW populism is only a symptom of that disconnect.
The victory of
@EmmanuelMacron
today is of the utmost importance not just for France but for the world. Right wing authoritarian populists, often backed by and backing Putin, are democracy’s greatest threat. Macron has seen them off today, but they will be back.
A couple of thoughts on the Australian decision to abandon the Attack-class diesel-electric submarine programme in favor of pursuing a nuclear-powered submarine fleet in co-operation with the USA and UK./1
Loving the confidence on this site that the AUKUS subs are a rolled gold certainty. As if we didn’t cancel a French sub contract five minutes ago and renege on a handshake deal with Japan five minutes before that.
I don't want to minimise this: China already has more capability to attack the Australian continent than the Soviets ever did. But that's no excuse for threat inflation.
Although the assumption that China is a threat to US security is near universal among analysts, it is vanishingly rare to see anyone spell out exactly why. So when a US analyst attempts such an argument, it is worth applauding and examining:
I'm very sympathetic to those who don't want to fight to defend Taiwan. I'm against the forever wars and generally am skeptical about the use of our military.
But defending Taiwan makes sense *for Americans' concrete economic interests, freedoms, and sovereignty*.
Why? 👇 1/
If Australia thinks G7 communiques, NATO summitry or even a trade deal with the UK are signs that the West will be there for us in a contested Asia, we're making a grave error. My piece in the
@smh
:
My piece in today’s Financial Review on Paul Keating’s intervention in the AUKUS debate. In some ways things are worse for Australia than he supposes, in other ways better.
First, the attention on this topic is welcome. Australian politicians and commentators are almost unanimous in calling for higher defence spending 'because China', but there is shockingly little analysis of the specifics. Just what could the PLA do to us?
@shadihamid
Yep. And now we will get a wave of anguished commentary about how divided America is between red and blue, when the real division is between the political class (which includes the media) and the public.
From the transcript of the final session of talks between Reagan and Gorbachev in Reykjavik, 1986. It still stuns me to my core that this conversation even happened:
Thanks for the update on the Scottish election in your 7pm TV bulletin,
@abcnews
. Can you also let me know what’s going on in Jakarta, Tokyo and Beijing?
These are very expensive weapons, probably in the tens of millions of dollars each. They can only be used once and they only carry one warhead with 500-1000kg of HE. Enough to destroy an aircraft hangar or damage a highway overpass, but no more.
It's unlikely China would ever use its entire inventory of these missiles against us, and even if they did, the damage would be survivable, particularly if we invest in hardening and resilience of our northern bases.
@balajis
@clairlemon
Nothing on that equipment list that the Chinese and Russians don't already make quite well themselves. Even for Iran, the value would be marginal.
All the while, they would be vulnerable to our Collins subs, as well as airborne anti-ship threats such as the Super Hornet and P-8 firing Harpoon missiles. In time, we will have the far deadlier LRASM too.
AFAIK China cannot hit us with non-nuclear ballistic missiles fired from the mainland. It's not clear which system Sheridan has in mind with this claim. Every missile with that range is designed to carry nuclear weapons. See p.66-7 of this report:
On Thursday,
#QandA
will look at how Australia can repair its relationship with China, from trade sanctions to diplomatic tensions over human rights. Register to join the studio audience in Melbourne via the website:
Even losing one destroyer or submarine on such a mission would be the biggest loss the PLA Navy has suffered in modern history. And in return for what? A few dozen cruise missiles hitting our northern bases. Why would we buckle to Chinese demands in the face of that?
As for strikes from the air, yes that is possible, using the H-6 bomber. But as the previous map shows, they would need to be launched from (quite small) South China Sea bases, or they would need aerial refueling support, which is very scarce in the PLA Air Force right now.
Even with aerial refueling, these would be some of the longest bombing missions in history. Not quite up there with the 'Black Buck' raids from the Falklands, but still highly resource-intensive. Not an efficient way to achieve military effects.
Also worth noting: China presently has no nuclear-powered submarines for a mission like this. They do have some SSKs than can fire land-attack cruise missiles, but it's a long, slow journey to Australia.
Like many AUKUS sceptics, I'm also a PRC sceptic. None of us are "isolationists, pacifists and anti-nuclear campaigners".
The pro-AUKUS side doesn't need a taxpayer-funded publicity campaign, it just needs to offer a coherent strategic case for SSNs:
It's a mildly unfashionable thing to say, but Australia's China debate is actually pretty sophisticated. My review of David Brophy's "China Panic" and Peter Hartcher's "Red Zone":
What about firing missiles from ships and subs? More plausible and affordable, but the transit from China would take weeks, and when the ships/subs arrive within range, they could fire just a few dozen missiles. Then all the way back to China to reload.
My observation from quite a lot of freeway driving over the last 12 months: tailgaters are always men, and 90% are driving utes. Given the speeds involved, they are taking INSANE risks with their own lives, and those of other road users.
30% of Aus population (7.6 million) born overseas, all unable to see family for 15 months. Wouldn't you expect them to have cohered into some kind of political movement or voice by now? Why hasn't this happened?
@HenrySherrell
@arcanakhalil
@natashaskassam
"Abandoned"? Or maybe just left to stand on our own two feet, as any confident, modern nation should. We need to get it this clear: the West is not coming to Australia's rescue.
Trade Minister Dan Tehan says the new trade deal with the UK ‘rights an historic wrong, which occurred 50 years ago, when the UK turned to Europe and left Australia, in many ways…abandoned’
#auspol
#trade
@9NewsAUS
My AUKUS piece, including a point I took (with permission) from Allan Gyngell: "it is hard to think of a major defence or foreign policy initiative in living memory with such a stark divergence between what the public knows and what the government knows".
This mindset, of reaching for the top *in Asia*, should be a national mindset, not just a footballing one. It's why Ange is an inspiring figure beyond the pitch.
The Interpreter wants to expand its coverage of Asian pop culture and how it intersects with the region's politics. If you're a writer or researcher who has something to say on this topic, let us know!
@LowyInstitute
@danielflitton
@athomasdavis
My point is that there is nothing like this level of intellectual engagement in the US when it comes to China, which is clearly a much bigger challenge to America's global status than radical Islam ever was. 2/
One sure way to make the Australian government dig its heels in on these 14 points is to make them public. Backing down on any of them now would be a humiliation. China must know that. Suggests the message may not be aimed at us.
even after almost 30 years living in Australia, I still get excited by King Parrots when I get to see one close up. His green friend was a few meters up in the tree.
A paper which has changed my thinking. I had hitherto internalised the conventional wisdom that losing Taiwan would be catastrophic for America's position in Asia
@PatPorter76
@MMazarr
:
I'm looking for a term that's similar to "hindsight bias" but not quite. It's the tendency to retrospectively normalise radical change. As in, an action or event overturns the status quo, but we look back on it as uncontroversial or typical. Is there a term for that?
Is it churlish to point out that saying China aims to be the "leading military, economic, diplomatic and political power...in the world” is not *quite* the same as saying it wants to "dominate the world"?
The acknowledgments page of the book I am writing will say: “I could not have written this book without Twitter. But without Twitter, I would have written it in half the time.”
"10 tips for writing op-eds". I drew on this 2013 piece today to talk to the
@PerthUSAsia
Alliance Regional Workshop about how to get your ideas into the public debate:
@erinwatsonlynn
Said it before, and will say it again. Turning up to a big international summit in a tanker aircraft is like arriving at the school formal in dad's ute.
Today I am heading to Japan for the Quad Leaders’ Summit along with Foreign Minister
@SenatorWong
.
I am honoured to represent Australia at this important forum.
I look forward to meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, US President Biden and Indian Prime Minister Modi.
Has anyone written on the specific consequences of a PLA base in the Pacific Islands region for Australia's defence? What would be the peacetime/wartime utility of such a base? What would be its coercive potential? How would ADF strategy and force structure need to change?
.
@joshtpm
's column reminds me of the intellectual ferment in the US triggered by 9/11 - Paul Berman, Andrew Sullivan, Hitchens, Ignatieff, New Republic etc. Most of them turned out to be dreadfully wrong, of course, but that's not my point. 1/