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Sam Roggeveen Profile
Sam Roggeveen

@SamRoggeveen

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Director, International Security Program, Lowy Institute. Author of "The Echidna Strategy: Australia's Search for Power and Peace"

Joined March 2012
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
Germany has decided to stop using the coronavirus infection rate as its yardstick for deciding if restrictions should be in force... government will instead monitor hospitalisations as a key indicator for whether the health system is becoming overburdened.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
This is rather good.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
@SHamiltonian Help me understand, Steven. What does this mean for ordinary Russians?
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
4 years
@goal I was once mistaken for Ronald Koeman by a Japanese tourist while we were at the top of the Eiffel Tower. True story.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
When China behaves in ways that arouse fear or suspicion among other nations, we should remain open to the possibility that China *does* understand how damaging such behaviour is to its reputation, but that its leaders have concluded it is worth it.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
4 years
From Gordon Brown's review of Bill Gates' new book on climate change.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
Some thoughts on Greg Sheridan's weekend column, specifically this paragraph on the Chinese military threat to Australia.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
One reason America became a great power and Australia didn't: inland waterways.
@Windyweaver
windy/Dennis 🇺🇦 I support Ukraine
2 years
The mighty Mississippi and all its tributaries
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
I think we might be overstating the risk that NATO military involvement in the Ukraine War leads to Russian escalation and understating the risk that sanctions lead to escalation.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
4 years
@mhar4 OMG I love my country.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
My first impressions of the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine announcement. The word 'extraordinary' gets quite a work-out...
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
7 years
Outstanding piece from @Robert_E_Kelly :
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
What all this illustrates is that Australia's single biggest defence asset is distance. We are hard to attack because we are far away. Yet our defence strategy, particularly the AUKUS subs, is now geared to compressing that distance when we should be exploiting it.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
6 years
@Rotarywings1 @stoa1984 And after the smoke clears...
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
With three months to think it over, I have only become more sceptical about AUKUS. My latest for The Interpreter:
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
“Right wing authoritarian populists…are democracy’s greatest threat”. Disagree. The greatest threat is the yawning chasm between the political class and the public. RW populism is only a symptom of that disconnect.
@TurnbullMalcolm
Malcolm Turnbull
2 years
The victory of @EmmanuelMacron today is of the utmost importance not just for France but for the world. Right wing authoritarian populists, often backed by and backing Putin, are democracy’s greatest threat. Macron has seen them off today, but they will be back.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
8 years
Today my kids ran down the Parliament House grass for last time, thanks to the coming fence. What a disgrace. A small victory for terrorism.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
Strong Canberra vibes here.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
A sobering look at what we are getting ourselves into.
@EngageStrategy1
Engaging Strategy
3 years
A couple of thoughts on the Australian decision to abandon the Attack-class diesel-electric submarine programme in favor of pursuing a nuclear-powered submarine fleet in co-operation with the USA and UK./1
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
Twitter needs an account solely dedicated to the architecture of Australian licensed clubs.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
Loving the confidence on this site that the AUKUS subs are a rolled gold certainty. As if we didn’t cancel a French sub contract five minutes ago and renege on a handshake deal with Japan five minutes before that.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
I don't want to minimise this: China already has more capability to attack the Australian continent than the Soviets ever did. But that's no excuse for threat inflation.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
Although the assumption that China is a threat to US security is near universal among analysts, it is vanishingly rare to see anyone spell out exactly why. So when a US analyst attempts such an argument, it is worth applauding and examining:
@ElbridgeColby
Elbridge Colby
2 years
I'm very sympathetic to those who don't want to fight to defend Taiwan. I'm against the forever wars and generally am skeptical about the use of our military. But defending Taiwan makes sense *for Americans' concrete economic interests, freedoms, and sovereignty*. Why? 👇 1/
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
If Australia thinks G7 communiques, NATO summitry or even a trade deal with the UK are signs that the West will be there for us in a contested Asia, we're making a grave error. My piece in the @smh :
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
Walked into a shopping centre this morning, 1 January. Pharmacy closed, bottle shop open. I call that a misallocation of resources.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
My piece in today’s Financial Review on Paul Keating’s intervention in the AUKUS debate. In some ways things are worse for Australia than he supposes, in other ways better.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
Some 59% of the population are full-vaccinated with around 64% having received at least one dose.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
First, the attention on this topic is welcome. Australian politicians and commentators are almost unanimous in calling for higher defence spending 'because China', but there is shockingly little analysis of the specifics. Just what could the PLA do to us?
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
4 years
@shadihamid Yep. And now we will get a wave of anguished commentary about how divided America is between red and blue, when the real division is between the political class (which includes the media) and the public.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
Dwight Eisenhower, everybody:
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
From the transcript of the final session of talks between Reagan and Gorbachev in Reykjavik, 1986. It still stuns me to my core that this conversation even happened:
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
Thanks for the update on the Scottish election in your 7pm TV bulletin, @abcnews . Can you also let me know what’s going on in Jakarta, Tokyo and Beijing?
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
So let's begin. First of all, no, Beijing does not have 'countless' options. In fact, its options are narrower than Sheridan suggests.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
These are very expensive weapons, probably in the tens of millions of dollars each. They can only be used once and they only carry one warhead with 500-1000kg of HE. Enough to destroy an aircraft hangar or damage a highway overpass, but no more.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
It's unlikely China would ever use its entire inventory of these missiles against us, and even if they did, the damage would be survivable, particularly if we invest in hardening and resilience of our northern bases.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
@balajis @clairlemon Nothing on that equipment list that the Chinese and Russians don't already make quite well themselves. Even for Iran, the value would be marginal.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
1 year
The biggest investment in the parliamentary triangle since 2008, and it's a car park. What an indictment.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
All the while, they would be vulnerable to our Collins subs, as well as airborne anti-ship threats such as the Super Hornet and P-8 firing Harpoon missiles. In time, we will have the far deadlier LRASM too.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
AFAIK China cannot hit us with non-nuclear ballistic missiles fired from the mainland. It's not clear which system Sheridan has in mind with this claim. Every missile with that range is designed to carry nuclear weapons. See p.66-7 of this report:
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
1 year
Possibly the greatest thread ever.
@ThatsSoVillage
That’s So Village
1 year
As the cricket season draws to an end here in the UK, it's time to recap a few of the most village moments of the year... A thread —
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
"Repairing the relationship" should not be the government's objective.
@QandA
QandA
3 years
On Thursday, #QandA will look at how Australia can repair its relationship with China, from trade sanctions to diplomatic tensions over human rights. Register to join the studio audience in Melbourne via the website:
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
Even losing one destroyer or submarine on such a mission would be the biggest loss the PLA Navy has suffered in modern history. And in return for what? A few dozen cruise missiles hitting our northern bases. Why would we buckle to Chinese demands in the face of that?
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
As for strikes from the air, yes that is possible, using the H-6 bomber. But as the previous map shows, they would need to be launched from (quite small) South China Sea bases, or they would need aerial refueling support, which is very scarce in the PLA Air Force right now.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
1 year
Lovely to finally see it in physical form. In bookshops on 29 August, or pre-order here:
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
Even with aerial refueling, these would be some of the longest bombing missions in history. Not quite up there with the 'Black Buck' raids from the Falklands, but still highly resource-intensive. Not an efficient way to achieve military effects.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
The DF-26 (of which China probably has around 500) could reach northern Australia, but only if fired from China's artificial islands:
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
President George HW Bush's 1992 State of the Union address. Breathtaking.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
I used to worry that I suffer from confirmation bias but everything I read says I don't.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
Also worth noting: China presently has no nuclear-powered submarines for a mission like this. They do have some SSKs than can fire land-attack cruise missiles, but it's a long, slow journey to Australia.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
6 years
@dafengcao 15 destroyers in this pic alone either under construction or fitting out. Plus the carrier, top right. Astonishing. And in terms of defence spending as a % of GDP, they're not even breaking a sweat. @graham_euan @BrendanTN_ @BrendanKTaylor @tshugart3 @mcgregorrichard
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
7 months
Like many AUKUS sceptics, I'm also a PRC sceptic. None of us are "isolationists, pacifists and anti-nuclear campaigners". The pro-AUKUS side doesn't need a taxpayer-funded publicity campaign, it just needs to offer a coherent strategic case for SSNs:
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
It's a mildly unfashionable thing to say, but Australia's China debate is actually pretty sophisticated. My review of David Brophy's "China Panic" and Peter Hartcher's "Red Zone":
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
What about firing missiles from ships and subs? More plausible and affordable, but the transit from China would take weeks, and when the ships/subs arrive within range, they could fire just a few dozen missiles. Then all the way back to China to reload.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
1 year
My observation from quite a lot of freeway driving over the last 12 months: tailgaters are always men, and 90% are driving utes. Given the speeds involved, they are taking INSANE risks with their own lives, and those of other road users.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
My latest on the Quad (over-rated) and Indonesia (under-rated):
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
6 years
Good grief! My piece on the Chinese aircraft carrier program the third-most popular arricle on @ForeignPolicy 's website in 2018: @LowyInstitute
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
7 months
New piece from me. AUKUS scepticism is growing in Australia, but I don't see much change on the horizon. In the US, on the other hand...:
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
30% of Aus population (7.6 million) born overseas, all unable to see family for 15 months. Wouldn't you expect them to have cohered into some kind of political movement or voice by now? Why hasn't this happened? @HenrySherrell @arcanakhalil @natashaskassam
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
This from @JamesFallows . Glad I'm not the only one who feels this way...
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
In case there was any confusion, my alternative vision does not include the Russian Kilo-class submarines shown in the pic!
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
"Abandoned"? Or maybe just left to stand on our own two feet, as any confident, modern nation should. We need to get it this clear: the West is not coming to Australia's rescue.
@Fi_Willan
Fiona Willan
3 years
Trade Minister Dan Tehan says the new trade deal with the UK ‘rights an historic wrong, which occurred 50 years ago, when the UK turned to Europe and left Australia, in many ways…abandoned’ #auspol #trade @9NewsAUS
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
7 years
OMG this just gets better and better with age. Stupendously fine writing, and the performances...
@nktpnd
Ankit Panda
7 years
Bonus: 'Yes Minister' preempted Trump's BMD remarks by decades. (This is such a great bit.)
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
7 years
I'm against the 280-character move. The old 140-character limit forced me to avoid repetition, avoid repetition, and be really, really conci
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
How should Australia deal with China? I make the case for stoicism:
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
My AUKUS piece, including a point I took (with permission) from Allan Gyngell: "it is hard to think of a major defence or foreign policy initiative in living memory with such a stark divergence between what the public knows and what the government knows".
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
7 years
The Interpreter wants to expand its coverage of Asian pop culture and how it intersects with the region's politics. If you're a writer or researcher who has something to say on this topic, let us know! @LowyInstitute @danielflitton @athomasdavis
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
My point is that there is nothing like this level of intellectual engagement in the US when it comes to China, which is clearly a much bigger challenge to America's global status than radical Islam ever was. 2/
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
6 years
Enjoyed hosting @Robert_E_Kelly in Canberra earlier this week. Recruiting Bob as an Interpreter regular was one of the best decisions I made as editor. @LowyInstitute @danielflitton
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
4 years
One sure way to make the Australian government dig its heels in on these 14 points is to make them public. Backing down on any of them now would be a humiliation. China must know that. Suggests the message may not be aimed at us.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
"Of course I can write 3000 words by Monday."
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
Me too.
@cosmicpinot
Brian P Schmidt
2 years
even after almost 30 years living in Australia, I still get excited by King Parrots when I get to see one close up. His green friend was a few meters up in the tree.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
1 year
Thrilling to see the cover of my upcoming book on the @BlackIncBooks website:
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
A paper which has changed my thinking. I had hitherto internalised the conventional wisdom that losing Taiwan would be catastrophic for America's position in Asia @PatPorter76 @MMazarr :
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
11 months
I'm looking for a term that's similar to "hindsight bias" but not quite. It's the tendency to retrospectively normalise radical change. As in, an action or event overturns the status quo, but we look back on it as uncontroversial or typical. Is there a term for that?
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
Is it churlish to point out that saying China aims to be the "leading military, economic, diplomatic and political power...in the world” is not *quite* the same as saying it wants to "dominate the world"?
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
Dutton said war over Taiwan cannot be discounted. How is that in any sense 'hawkish'? It's just a statement of the bleeding obvious.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
The acknowledgments page of the book I am writing will say: “I could not have written this book without Twitter. But without Twitter, I would have written it in half the time.”
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
1 year
Australia NEVER thinks of itself this way.
@balajis
Balaji
1 year
Australia and New Zealand have surprisingly good financials relative to the G7. They may be the best run countries in the Western world.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
For Australian foreign policy, Indonesia should be a higher priority than China. Discuss.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
When I hear Harry Kewell say we’re too shy, I hear Ange talking. They’re both right. #FRAAUS
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
4 years
I can think of worse.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
7 years
Proud to welcome @danielflitton as new Managing Editor of The Interpreter. Here's his first piece. @LowyInstitute
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
Said it before, and will say it again. Turning up to a big international summit in a tanker aircraft is like arriving at the school formal in dad's ute.
@AlboMP
Anthony Albanese
2 years
Today I am heading to Japan for the Quad Leaders’ Summit along with Foreign Minister @SenatorWong . I am honoured to represent Australia at this important forum. I look forward to meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, US President Biden and Indian Prime Minister Modi.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
My latest piece on Richard Marles' statement in France that there will not be an interim submarine. Odd that this is not getting more attention.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
Neat metaphor for Twitter.
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
2 years
Has anyone written on the specific consequences of a PLA base in the Pacific Islands region for Australia's defence? What would be the peacetime/wartime utility of such a base? What would be its coercive potential? How would ADF strategy and force structure need to change?
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@SamRoggeveen
Sam Roggeveen
3 years
. @joshtpm 's column reminds me of the intellectual ferment in the US triggered by 9/11 - Paul Berman, Andrew Sullivan, Hitchens, Ignatieff, New Republic etc. Most of them turned out to be dreadfully wrong, of course, but that's not my point. 1/
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