honestpol Profile
honestpol

@JessVelona

7,150
Followers
7,617
Following
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Media
1,485
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Used to practice law, now teach history and law, longtime activist. #VoteBlue #KamalaHarris2024 #SaveDemocracy #StandWithUkraine

New Rochelle, NY
Joined March 2012
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
@Amy_Siskind All of us who have been lawyers have an obligation to uphold the rule of law. Sadly, in 2020 some lawyers did the exact opposite by helping the plot to overturn the 2020 election. They brought dishonor to our profession. Let's all work this time to erase that stain.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@umichvoter Great news! Biden lost Iowa by 8%, and in June he was 18% behind. Now in the gold star Selzer poll, Kamala is only 4% behind. A hint she's ahead of Biden's 4.5% win nationwide, and headed for an electoral college win. Keep donating, calling & canvassing, but with optimism!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
@Fritschner Also, Kamala soared in the polls in the interim. Trump is behind, so now he has to debate, in a desperate bid to shake up the race.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@cmclymer Yes, chilling - it's perhaps the worst example of the horror we are all living through. But we can end this terrible chapter and restore humanity and decency once again.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@lxeagle17 If right, this is a Harris electoral college win. But too close - we need bigger margins, nationally and in swing states, to deter post-election nonsense and lead the GOP to repudiate MAGA.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@GarrettHerrin Huge shifts in one month. Indeps: from Trump+4 to Harris +11. 18-39: from Biden +2 to Harris +20. Women 18-29: from Trump +2 to Harris +23. Battlegrounds: from Trump +3 to Harris +4. Lets go!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
@AmziQureshi As a lifelong sports fan who spends every moment in the car listening to sports radio, I love the idea of Walz going on sports talk programs. He can relate to this audience, which is otherwise hard to reach. In a close race, it could make the difference.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@PpollingNumbers Great result from this A+ pollster, & more evidence Harris has a lead matching Biden's 4.5% from 2020. And yesterday's PA+3 Suffolk poll is further evidence the battleground may be closer to national average than in 2020. But still too close - we need a big win to crush MAGA.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@PpollingNumbers Wow! +3 in NC! Just one poll, but A+ rated. And the movement is our way. If this is close to accurate, Harris is clearly ahead nationwide. And if we are winning NC, it's game over. I'm sending another donation to NC Dems. Let's win this state!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@PpollingNumbers We can definitely win NC, folks. Follow that trend. And if I had to bet, I'd say this is understating Harris's support, since other polls show a bigger lead for Stein against Holocaust-denying, women's suffrage-denying Robinson.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
@OhioClaire Wonderful news! These are the signs of a winning campaign, translating enthusiasm into action on the ground.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
@pastordmack Thank you for your courage. We may disagree on many issues, but now it is vital for Americans of good will to unite behind the one candidate who can lead us based on all that is good in our country: Kamala Harris.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@umichvoter 2 point shift to Harris in PA since last Emerson poll. Interesting Sunbelt swing states about same as Blue Wall. Overall, a reminder - it's still close, we need to keep working. I'm signed up to canvass in PA - take a day to do the same in a swing state!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
13 days
@tbonier Same in MI & WI (modeled party data only - so usual caveats). Michigan Dem turnout is 23.1% of their 2020 early votes, GOP turnout is 14.6% of their 2020 early votes. In Wisconsin, Dems at 13.8% of their early 2020 vote, GOP at 5.0%.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@umichvoter Huge surge from Biden +14 to Harris +38 among Asian American voters. They are 2-3% of the electorate in most swing states, 8% in Nevada. In a close race, this can be the difference.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@amandalitman Folks, read this thread. Excellent summary of how we failed to focus on down-ballot in our last big year - 2008. Even recent efforts have been underfunded. Plus, many key Senate, House races are outside swing states, so they won't benefit from the national campaign presence.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@PpollingNumbers Bingo! This confirms what we've been talking about the last 24 hours. Right now, NC is our best Sunbelt swing state, along with NV, but GA and AZ are clearly in play as well.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@USA_Polling Keep watching this one - might be another pickup chance - and we may need it with Tester in a tough race and Brown's lead small in Ohio.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
14 days
@tbonier Great trend - especially a 50% higher share of young minority women registering in 2024 vs. 2020, and partisan gap up from Dem+10 t Dem+30. Could be an extra 5-10,000 votes in PA from this small demographic. Love to see comparable data for other, larger groups.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@CrucibleOfThght This is what it takes. One by one, Americans turning away from anger and toward hope. We can restore, as Obama said quoting Lincoln, the "bonds of affection" between us.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@asanderford @NE_Examiner Not just a stray electoral vote. If we win NE-2 and the Blue Wall but lose the Sunbelt swing states, we have 270 EVs to Trump's 268. NE-2 could be the margin of victory. Now, let's work hard to make sure this election is not close.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@tbonier Amazing! With 3 GOP House seats in play in NY, a surge in women registering here can only help us win and take back the House. Now, let's keep working for Laura Gillan, Mondaire Jones and Josh Riley.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@tbonier Folks, read this thread. This is a big surge in registration compared to 2020, focused on voters most likely to vote Dem. Tom, I'd love to see raw numbers - how many people are we talking about?
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@NidiaCavazosTV Awesome. This, plus the planned Milwaukee rally during the convention and streaming the convention to TikTok, Instagram & YouTube, shows Dems are breaking out of the mold of 4 days of speeches inside on the hall on TV. Hopefully, it leads to an even bigger post-convention bump.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@umichvoter Nice NC result - and this is partly pre-debate and before the big new Robinson scandal. Harris also has a 6% lead in net favorability, so room to grow. Let's go NC - and let's win big.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@tbonier Sorry, I missed Tom's later tweets. Aside from the 50% total bump in NC in the first week after Biden dropped out, those new registrants were, compared to 2020, 6% more Dem, 6% more female, and 16% more young voters. All great signs!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
@NateSilver538 @PatrickRuffini Agreed. Plus, Biden was sinking steadily at the end, and had no realistic chance to recover. Harris has made up all that ground Biden had lost in less than a week, and with a VP pick and convention ahead, she has room to grow further.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@Zprtr1 That's actually a high response rate! If each shift yields a small shift in one voter's preference, then a campaign flush with volunteers can make the difference.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@benwikler WisDems are perhaps our best organized state party. They beat these GOP power grabs handily in a mid-August vote, just like they won a Sup. Ct. race, which soon ended the GOP gerrymander. Support Wisdems' fight for democracy, and let's win Wisconsin in November!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@lxeagle17 If correct, the two closest races are Tester and Allred. They both need our help. Hopefully, Rosen and Gallego's big leads will help Harris; hard to see so many people say "Lake is too extreme, but Trump is ok."
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@PpollingNumbers More evidence of surge, Surge, SURGE. Folks, we have a chance to do what we have to do - win big and crush MAGA and restore civility to our public life. Keep working!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
21 days
@cbouzy Folks, read this. Dems up in PA mail requests & returns. And blacks are WAY up - 20% of mail ballot returns. At same time - 31 days before election - they were just 5% in 2020 and 2022. Same in Michigan - 18% black, vs. 9% 2020, 11% 2022. Still early, but bears watching.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
@Used_To_Be_GOP Thank you for your courage. We respect that we may disagree on many issues, but we are united in our conviction that Trump must not be allowed to return to power.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@AdImpact_Pol Trump is competing on the air in PA and GA, which are close, and nowhere else. Dem PACs are spending twice as much the GOP billionaire PACs. Incredible.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@umichvoter Nice reminder - special elections are actual votes and have been pro-Dem all cycle. Overall, the Dem ran ahead of Biden, and a huge shift in this town may foretell major GOP-to-Dem switching at top of ticket.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
@OurShallowState Good news. It's important to punish everyone who violated the law in an effort to tamper with our elections.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
15 days
@blockedfreq Great to see! GOP-leaning polls flooding battleground and distorting averages. But independent PA-07 and PA-10 polls show Harris ahead of Biden 2020, and Times' 3-4% PA lead is ahead of Biden +1 from 2020. Let's go!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@briantylercohen Let's hope this is the first step toward a total repudiation of MAGA, both in NC and nationwide. To have a healthy democracy, we need at least two functioning major parties who respect legal and ethical norms and renounce candidates who fall far short of such standards.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@PpollingNumbers Big shift! People are coming back and embracing Dem ID thanks to Harris and more focus on the threat posed by Trump. This is consistent with Dem national leads in generic House ballot and big leads in most swing Senate races. And it points to a Harris win as well.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@PpollingNumbers Oh my! Trump+1 is the cloest we've seen yet for Florida. If we win there, plus GA and NC, it's a sweep. And with Tester in trouble, great to see Scott only +2 in FL. This Senate race and/or TX could let us hang on to our majority.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
@BeschlossDC In the afternoon, I was on Martha's Vineyard, staring at Chappaquiddick (!), when a guy on a bike went by and yelled "Nixon's resigning!" I got home in time to watch the speech. Stunned - never thought he'd quit. But now the Court would say he had immunity for all of that?
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@missburneysays Doug Emhoff, Gwen Walz, Amy Klobuchar are on the FL bus! We have so many amazing surrogates who can draw crowds, drive our message and get people registered and signed up to volunteer. Let's go.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@tbonier The surge of registrations among young minority women is the most dramatic. But just as important: Dem registration overall is 50% ahead of 2020, while GOP is just 8% ahead. And women are ahead of 2020 at twice the rate as men - 39% vs. 18%. Must be unprecedented.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@tbonier A nice early sign in NC. This is just after Biden dropped out, and already a big bump in registration. Let's see how it developed in later weeks, as well as the party, race and age breakdown.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
The VP search process has been a boon for Democrats. It's shown we have many leaders with strong records and who are great communicators. When Kamala introduces her VP, all those considered should be there, to show unity. And they all must be surrogates across the country.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@RachelBitecofer Gianforte, remember, body slammed a reporter for asking a question, drawing praise from Trump. But his property tax increase is deeply unpopular, so he could be a drag on the GOP ticket. Plus, abortion is on the ballot. Tester's not out - donate, make calls - "do something."
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@PpollingNumbers Amazing results, and not from a Dem pollster. For all 3 GOP incumbents to be behind points to a likely Dem House majority, and it also bodes well for a strong top of the ticket.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
19 days
@stella2020woof Yes, Dem poll. Still, now polls show both IA swing districts ready to flip. Let’s go!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@PpollingNumbers Not a great pollster, but UMass Lowell had Harris +2 this morning as well. The pattern is clear - anywhere from a tie in PA to Harris +5. No recent polls showing Trump ahead. Still, too close - we need to win big to crush MAGA and turn the page. Keep working!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
19 days
@blockedfreq Per Targetearly, PA Dems' 1.8% turnout edge (2.5% vs. 0.7%) is ahead of 2020 (1.1%) & 2022 (0.6%). Yes, it's early, and comparisons year-to-year are imperfect. Still, I'd rather be us than them.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@tbonier Amazing thread. Young, female, and black voters are driving new registrations in Michigan since Harris announced, far more than at the same time in 2020. This is how a surge of enthusiasm becomes real!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@lxeagle17 Showing up matters, but the quality of the experience matters too. Harris's rallies are not only huge - they reflect tremendous energy, not seen since Obama. This carries over into people volunteering to knock on doors, talking to friends etc.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@AdImpact_Pol Credit to all of us that Dems are way ahead in ad spending. GOP had been even in PA, now dropping behind. All good signs, but we can't count on ads alone. Sign up to call or knock on doors in a swing state.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@matthewjdowd I understand. But ads with Trump voters saying they'll vote for Harris sends a strong signal to independents and other swing voters that what's going on in the GOP is not normal, and it's essential to vote Dem this year.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
13 days
@flywithkamala Yet another example of our deep bench of surrogates. Add Obama in PA, Clinton in GA, and we're covering the swing states every day!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@MacFarlaneNews Love the laser focus on PA - it could be the whole ballgame. I'll be canvassing with a troop of New Yorkers in Eastern PA this weekend. Join us!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@atrupar As of now, Taylor Swift's endorsement post has 3.2 million likes.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@MitchEmerson @KamalaforFL Walz was there a few days ago, with a big crowd. We also saw a huge turnout at a Dem club meeting. But this is the proof that the campaign is doing the grunt work, turning cheers into volunteers - and votes.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@glennkirschner2 Plus, it shows that yet another group of ordinary American citizens found the evidence about Jan. 6 warranted criminally indicting Trump.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@PpollingNumbers Great polls! Enough to win the electoral vote, but still we need to build a bigger lead to deter post-election nonsense and break MAGA. I'll be in PA on Saturday with a team of New Yorkers knocking on doors, even if it rains. Sign up for a swing state!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@AppDemocrats This is North Carolina, folks!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
@MeekPhill_ Yes, but I saw deGrom pitch the most amazing game ever - and that's from someone who saw Seaver and Gooden many times. April 2021 - 15ks, last 19 batters in a row, and he got two hits and an rbi. Most of all, it was strike one, two, three on so many batters. Dominance.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@kylegriffin1 A Cheney endorsement of Harris could be a big deal. Today's Tipp poll showed 9% of the GOP voting for Harris. But in the primaries Haley got 20% of the vote, even when Trump's win was assured. Cheney could be key to winning that added 10% of Republicans - and a big Harris win.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@kylegriffin1 Great to see! So many of us have donated mostly to the top of the ticket and/or national party. Now, we can see some of our dollars going to smaller down-ballot campaigns where they can make a bigger difference at the margin. Let's go!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@cjwarnke @politicoca @AdamGrayCA @RudySalasCA @gtwhitesides @WillRollinsCA @KenCalvert @derektranCA45 Rare independent House polls, and we're on track to flip at least 4 CA seats, and so likely retake the House. Yes, a lot of undecideds. Still, incumbents well below 50%, even after years of bombarding constituents with mail, have a hard time coming back at the end. Let's go!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
25 days
@harris_wins Again, reaching into red countries in the battleground, even without the Presidential candidate, shows how deep our list of surrogates is. Walz and Fetterman are perfect for this - Fetterman shaved 4% off the 2020 margin in York.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@kylegriffin1 This must be hit hard to deter others from making threats against those who run our elections and uphold our laws. Maybe the AG should publicly warn people they will be prosecuted. Yes, he will then be a target - but right now average Americans doing their jobs are the targets.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@PpollingNumbers And now this - so of 5 post-debate PA polls, it's either +6, +4, +3, +3 or tie. Average is over +3. Great results, now let's bring this home.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
23 days
@Taniel Biden lost Ohio by 8%. Harris is at or even ahead of that pace. That's consistent with strong polling in other red states. It points to Harris winning most swing states.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
@Taniel Dems overperformed in the midterms and in 2023 in Virginia and in special elections. No surprise it's happening again. The key is that now with Kamala it can happen at the top of the ticket as well.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@umichvoter Big shift from Harris +1 a month ago. Hispanics went from +6 to +13. Women from +9 to +13. And no college degree went from Trump +14 to +7. But: Trump +2 in swing states. Keep working!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@GarrettHerrin @VoteHubUS This is the big question. It does seem like swing states are tracking closer to national average than 2020, which gives Harris more room. But we need to win big to deter post-election shenanigans and crush MAGA. Keep working!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@Redistrict @CookPolitical @ercovey Love that NE-02 is an official tossup! With Walz appearing in Nebraska recently, and the national ticket's focus on that district's electoral vote, Vargas has a real shot to flip this seat. Also, CA-45 moves to tossup as well. Let's go!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@VoteHubUS Curious how this this partisan split for military/overseas compares to 2020 at this stage? It could be telling because all these folks have to mail their ballots. Thus, none of the distortions from the big shift away from mail ballots from 2020 to 2024.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@USA_Polling That's 3 VA polls in a few days - 8, 8 & 10 point Harris lead. Biden won VA by 10. This is consistent with a baseline popular vote margin close to 2020's Dem +4.5%, and not the Times' Trump +1. Keep working folks, but we can win this, by a good margin!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@BradMossEsq Yes. We must go all out in PA. Biden and Harris there yesterday. I'll be with a group of New Yorkers driving to a swing PA district on Saturday. Please sign up to canvass, make calls. We can win this!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@PpollingNumbers @MorningConsult 1st poll with Allred ahead! Let's go!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
12 days
@TeaPainUSA Let's hope this is right. We need to see which side's voters are in this big wave, and Georgia's big early in-person vote is likely in part a shift away from mail voting. Still, it's consistent with other good signs, like heavy AA turnout in MI & PA.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
14 days
@MattHardigree Awesome work! That's a lot of doors! I've been to PA earlier and it was more mixed, so great to hear.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@PpollingNumbers Yes, C-rated poll. Still, Trump won Montana by 16% in 2020, so 4th red state poll (after MO, IN, IA) showing Trump weak. Also, Zinke won by 3% in 2022 - his 4% margin here suggests poll isn't way off. And great to see Tester ahead, if slightly, after many left him for dead.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
Now that canceling weekend plans has become a meme, I hereby announce that I am NOT canceling my plans. I am knocking on doors in a NY swing district. How about you?
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@umichvoter Cygnal was Trump +3 a month ago, now virtual tie. Trend in our favor post-debate - great sign.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
24 days
@ScottWRasmussen @NapolitanNews This is wild! A margin of error race in FL from Rasmussen is a big sign the battleground has expanded. Expect surprises on Election Night, many in our favor.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@PpollingNumbers A 1-point Senate race in FL! And keep an eye on TX, Harris & Allred both within 4. The map is expanding folks.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@shannonrwatts I'm cautious about big shifts among subgroups, like white men shifting more to Trump. The margin of error for subgroups is way bigger than for the total sample. Wait until a lot of polls show the same thing.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
16 days
Just saw a great ad on the Fox baseball playoff broadcast in swing NY-17 for Dem Mondaire Jones, with law enforcement reps. slamming GOP Lawler for voting against funding for law enforcement. Let's go!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@PpollingNumbers The surge continues! We're starting to break 50% and Trump is stuck at usual 46-47%, and maybe even going down. We can win this big, but only if we keep working folks!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@RonFilipkowski The article says it "remains to be seen" if Trump's campaign will comply. Sorry, compliance with the law is not optional. This is how low we've sunk, unsure if a presidential candidate will follow a court injunction.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
Folks, I was just on a FL Dem call - impressed with Whitney Fox - she's ahead of terrible FL-12 GOP incumbent Anna Paulina Luna in 1 poll. Fox is articulate & notes Luna calls herself a “pro-life extremist . . . if you don’t like it move out of our state.” Support Fox!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@tbonier PA reg. surge is insane! Dems' gain vs. 2020 is twice GOP, youth 60%, blacks 110%, young black women 262%. Tom says a registration surge, even if small #s , is great predictor of turnout surge for all registered voters in same group. If minority youth vote like this, look out!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@del_corcoran @KamalaHarris @AP Fight for every AZ vote - Gwen Walz had a packed house in a Trump +50 AZ county the other day. Let’s go!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
@GregTSargent @SomosVotantes @BSPresearch This is huge. Harris' strong Hispanic support makes Arizona (25% of electorate Hispanic) and Nevada (22%) tossups once again. And keep an eye on the next tier - Texas (32%) and Florida (22%).
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@bluestein Another reason this matters - states have deadlines to register. Lots of people focus a week or two before Election Day and try to register, but it's too late. We're getting thousands registered now, when it counts.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@Yamiche Gee, this campaign is laser-focused. That one Nebraska electoral vote would be the difference if the only swing states we win are MI, WI & PA. And how nice that Walz is from Nebraska.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@PpollingNumbers Folks, maybe Tester isn't dead after all. Just shows you, polls will vary a lot 80 days before the election. Still makes sense to make a play for Texas and/or Florida as insurance to hold the Senate.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@USA_Polling This matches the Alaska 2020 margin. Another sign we’re on track for a popular vote win akin to Biden’s. But we must do better and we can - we have way more money, legitimate fears and enthusiasm. And unlike 2020, we can knock on doors! Let’s go!
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@JessVelona
honestpol
1 month
@burgessev Great to see! And it can only help the top of the ticket in TX and FL as well. We have the resources - I was at the NYC Harris event that raised $27 million alone. Let's expand the map. There will be surprises on Election night - let's keep working to make them in our favor.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
3 months
When I clerked for Ruth Bader Ginsburg, I revered our judiciary. Sadly, much has changed. Biden's Supreme Court reforms - binding ethics code, 18-year term limits, an amendment that presidents are not above the law - are common sense changes that I think most Americans support.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
2 months
@kylegriffin1 An amazing, moving finish - great job by Hillary.
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@JessVelona
honestpol
28 days
@PpollingNumbers Good numbers - Allred right there with Cruz, and even Harris in the ballpark. Certainly glad DSCC is dumping money into Texas to boost Allred. Let's go!
0
0
18